NBC/WSJ poll: Obama leads Romney by eight points in swing states

posted at 8:02 pm on June 26, 2012 by Allahpundit

It’s a slow news day and this is the national poll du jour so I have to blog it, but I really don’t want to. At first glance, the sample isn’t terrible: 42D/38R/14I if you include leaners, but look more closely and you’ll see a tilt. For one thing, the split between “strong Democrats” and “strong Republicans” is 21/13, and overall 41 percent say they voted for Obama four years ago compared to just 30 percent who say they voted for McCain. The One won that election by … seven points. See why it’s hard to take it seriously?

Despite the bluish tilt, Romney trails O overall by just three points. Two months ago, Obama led by six. As for the swing states:

Among swing-state respondents in the poll – those living in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin – Obama leads Romney, 50 to 42 percent.

Also in these swing states, Romney’s favorability numbers have dropped, possibly reflecting the toll the negative Obama TV advertisements are having on the former Massachusetts governor in these battlegrounds.

A month ago, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable score stood at 34-38 percent nationally and 36-36 percent in the 12 swing states.

But in this latest survey, his national fav/unfav score is 33-39 percent and 30-41 percent in the swing states.

How much does it really tell us to lump reliably blue states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in with true battlegrounds like Ohio and Virginia? I know some Republicans think Romney can win the first two, but that’s unlikely to happen unless we end up with a glorious red landslide in which Romney dominates the true swing states and ends up picking off a few purplish blues. Use a more realistic survey of true swing states (and a more realistic sample, natch) and that eight-point spread will tighten quite a bit.

Anyway. Let’s pretend that this is a good, smart, sound poll whose data we should regard with utmost seriousness. The numbers on the economy here look … not so good. Remember that smelly jobs report we got a few weeks ago? Turns out an awful lot of people — not a majority but a lot — think 69,000 jobs added in a month is pretty darned sweet:

Lot of low-information voters out there. And despite the car accident that is the eurozone and the ominous odds of a double dip now coming from places like S&P, hope continues to spring eternal:

This is interesting too. Even if you toss out the August 2011 numbers as an outlier, O’s trendline here is strikingly flat:

Despite nearly two more years of economic malaise, Obama’s actually doing better on this question now than he was in September 2010, shortly before the big red wave broke in the midterms. What’s strange about all this is that, on the basic question of which party will better handle the economy, the GOP is now out to a six-point lead, its biggest advantage in this poll since O was sworn in. So maybe all of the above data is a red herring: Voters sympathize with how Obama took office amid a financial crisis and they buy his basic narrative that the economy is improving, however slowly, but when push comes to shove they’re ready to give Republicans a turn. That’s possibly the single most encouraging item for Romney in this poll.

A few other random data points. This one is curious:

I’m going to assume that either May was an outlier or this month’s poll is, as it’s hard to explain why Romney’s support would be getting softer lately while O’s is firming up. Obama’s had a lousy run lately with plenty of economic bad news. I can buy that he hasn’t lost anyone (yet) but I don’t quite buy that he’s locking people in while Romney’s losing them.

Immigration?

Maybe that sudden tilt towards the Dems is another sample artifact, but I don’t know. Note that Democrats had their biggest advantage five years ago when the congressional push for comprehensive immigration reform was at its most intense. It may be that having immigration in the spotlight mobilizes the lefty base and then, as the issue fades, the GOP gradually makes gains. Between Obama’s DREAM gambit, Rubio’s proposed DREAM bill, and anticipation for the Supreme Court’s Arizona decision, there’s been a lot of immigration chatter lately. And lo and behold, the Democrats are back on top.

One more, just to show you how low-information those low-information voters are. Here are the favorable ratings for Bain and Solyndra; the first column is “very positive,” then “somewhat positive,” then “neutral,” “somewhat negative,” and “very negative,” followed of course by “don’t know.”

Just a friendly reminder that the things we spend our days obsessing about here rarely make a dent with average voters, even when, a la Bain, the media has every incentive to make sure that they do.


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Angry Andrea has been editing again ?

viking01 on June 26, 2012 at 11:49 PM

June polls are pretty useless. McCain was ahead of Obama (46% – 45%) at the beginning of June 2008…. and they stayed in a dead heat throughout the summer.
I’m not going to worry until after August 30th and if the economy implodes, hope that Romney doesn’t suspend his campaign/

Serenity Now, Serenity Now!

DoubleClutchin on June 26, 2012 at 11:53 PM

I’m not going to worry until after August 30th and if the economy implodes, hope that Romney doesn’t suspend his campaign/

Serenity Now, Serenity Now!

DoubleClutchin on June 26, 2012 at 11:53 PM

He doesn’t seem fhe panicky type, after all he’s a businessman, am sure he knows how to keep his cool :)…

jimver on June 27, 2012 at 12:03 AM

Its NBC so its a leadipe cinch that its caca. Another case of the msm trying to discourage the right. The internals for the Dems must be horrific. The msm is as desperate as the Dems these days.

neyney on June 27, 2012 at 12:11 AM

If the country reelects this guy it tells me all I need to know about the future of the USA.
It’s that simple.

FireBlogger on June 27, 2012 at 12:18 AM

He doesn’t seem fhe panicky type, after all he’s a businessman, am sure he knows how to keep his cool :)…

jimver on June 27, 2012 at 12:03 AM

Good point. :-)

DoubleClutchin on June 27, 2012 at 12:36 AM

Any way you slice it, this poll is bad news. Voters just like Obama too much personally to blame him for the economy.

gumbyandpokey on June 26, 2012 at 8:13 PM

You insult the memory of Art Clokey.

Del Dolemonte on June 27, 2012 at 1:00 AM

I can see one problem with this poll that nobody has brought up yet. Gallop and Rassmussen polls both show consumer confidence plunging, which all but guarantees that people think its getting worse. Yet a majority here say they think the economy is improving?

This tells me that this poll “dramatically” overpolls activist style democrats.

WolvenOne on June 27, 2012 at 1:23 AM

I know some CLUELESS Republicans think Romney can win the first two,

FIFY. Romney isn’t winning Pennsylvania or Wisconsin. Michigan neither.

xblade on June 27, 2012 at 1:34 AM

Just as President Kerry, (who suceeded president Gore), will tell you…..

mouell on June 27, 2012 at 6:40 AM

Any poll that doesn’t have a D/R/I break out close to 30/30/30 for likely voters is not worth looking at.

Obama gets a blip of a couple of years, but the movement of the change in voting affiliation has been ongoing and the ‘new normal’ of the Nation going to the Left that the Left so wanted has not only not shown up, but has done just the opposite of moving the Nation towards a rough parity between the two parties and Independents.

It isn’t that Obama is up by 8: it is that D’s are over represented by at least 10% and R’s by about 2%.

ajacksonian on June 27, 2012 at 7:12 AM

Voters sympathize with how Obama took office amid a financial crisis and they buy his basic narrative that the economy is improving, however slowly, but when push comes to shove they’re ready to give Republicans a turn.

That’s a good point which isn’t brought up enough. Despite the fact that a large amount of the population blames Bush for all our problems, there’s still a desire to give someone new a chance. That’s why all the energy towards blaming Bush by the Obama camp has worked only up to a point.

Even though blaming Bush for our current problems isn’t fair, it’s understandable. Conservatives often forget that Bush was intensely disliked by a great majority of people during his second term. Only after Petraeus turned things around in Iraq did his numbers improve–temporarily, and that only until the Wall Street crisis.

Burke on June 27, 2012 at 7:32 AM

The blamers who can’t get Bush out of their blaming head ignore he had a Democratic Congress that owned the check book and voted for the war. We also had a Democratic Congress for last couple of years that had secret meetings and rammed the health care down out throats and exempted over a thousand but made it mandatory for the rest of us. Yet they deny, deny, deny.

mixplix on June 27, 2012 at 7:54 AM

Allahpundit, you can minimize this poll if you like but do so at your own peril. Romney is running such a boring, lackluster campaign. Many won’t have enough enthusiasm to get off their butts and go vote this November for him or anyone. And that will only help the dem’s. DD

Darvin Dowdy on June 27, 2012 at 8:13 AM

Well, if NBC is reporting it, it MUST be true!

gopsteve on June 27, 2012 at 8:19 AM

Obama destroys Romney in OH, is safely up in PA, and wins FL by 4 in new Quinnipiac swing state polls out this morning. Mitt is toast.

gumbyandpokey on June 27, 2012 at 8:34 AM

I’m mean, really!!!

Where the heck is my Obama O’s cereal already???

dissent555 on June 27, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Not really. Carter and Reagan were pretty much neck-and-neck up until their debate and Reagan’s nationally televised speech.

Yes, but not in June.

Yeah, that was while Reagan was still the polarizing unelectable stupid washed-up former actor joke who was going to get us all killed in a nuclear holocaust. Romney’s been sold for years now as The Only Adult In The Room, Mr Electable Mr Inevitable, The Only One Who Can Beat Obama.

The thing is, I seem to remember Kerry doing better against Bush at this point than Romney is doing against Obama. Yet we hear silliness about Team O and the Dems being in “panic mode”.

ddrintn on June 26, 2012 at 9:35 PM

I guess you wouldn’t be whom you are if you didn’t wallow in false equivalence. If you think of Kerry as The Liberal Democrat rather than The Challenger, your analogy comes into better focus.

HitNRun on June 26, 2012 at 9:51 PM

And if the Rombots didn’t wallow in goofy misguided optimism over Mitt’s chances, the reason I used the analogy in the first place would come into focus. We are in a much worse economy than we were in in 2004, Bush didn’t have the media on his side, didn’t have the Dem GOTV machinery, the public was already growing tired of the Iraq war, and Bush still won. The aptness of the analogy might also come into clearer focus if instead of “Obama” you use the word “incumbent”. Incumbency in itself is a powerful weapon. A Reagan could topple a Dem incumbent. A squish like Romney playing not to lose won’t be able to do the same.

ddrintn on June 27, 2012 at 9:23 AM

This poll is almost impossible to make conjectures from. Why? because you have to look through it for the plus sign + for the questions that were asked of Registered voters. No mention of likely voters. Who would pay for a poll like this at the end of primary season during an election year?

Why would you pay to conduct this poll?

The sample for the current poll is “Adults.” But they compare some registered voter polls in the same charts.

The interns must be running the asylum.

Fleuries on June 27, 2012 at 9:56 AM

For one thing, the split between “strong Democrats” and “strong Republicans” is 21/13, and overall 41 percent say they voted for Obama four years ago compared to just 30 percent who say they voted for McCain.

When I do the math, only 71 percent of this sample of Adults participated in voting for the major candidate in 2008.

It would be better to use this sample of people to find out which breakfast cereals people enjoy.

Then multiply the results out for 312 million people.

Fleuries on June 27, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Too early to worry about polls.

jqc1970 on June 27, 2012 at 2:27 PM

NBC WSJ poll…a poll of a picture of adults, some registered and some not registered to vote, 25% of whom do not yet know that Romney is a Mormon, and 60% who still believe that Obama inherited the economy from Bush. 47% think that the cost of wars are the main reason we have deficit spending.

I just saw the panel on Fox News Special report actually taking this poll seriously. I feel bad for the Wall Street Journal.

Here is what I take seriously from this poll of average Numbskulls:

Republicans take the win for Reducing Federal deficit, Controlling Government Spending, Dealing with Terrorism, Promoting Strong Moral Values, and Dealing with the Economy.

And only 60% of them are really sure they are going to vote, Thank the “god of your choice.” with attribution to Severin.

Fleuries on June 27, 2012 at 7:32 PM

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