Open thread: Mandate-mas? Update: Psych!
posted at 10:15 am on June 21, 2012 by Ed Morrissey
I’m convinced that we won’t see a Supreme Court decision on ObamaCare until the nine justices have safely boarded aircraft for destinations unknown, but who knows? The Huffington Post says it could come as early as today … or not:
The Supreme Court’s ruling on President Obama’s health care law could be announced Thursday morning, a development that would have major implications regardless of the decision. …
After prolonged anticipation, the court is expected to hand down its decision on whether the Affordable Care Act’s individual mandate is constitutional by the end of the month. If no ruling is issued on Thursday, the decision could come next Monday. The justices could also decide to add more decision days next week, further adding to the uncertainty of when the ruling will arrive.
According to USA Today’s David Jackson, experts think those waiting for Mandate-Mas will probably end up being delighted no matter when the decision gets announced:
A survey of 56 legal insiders predicts that the Supreme Court will strike down the key part of President Obama’s health care law.
Oral arguments in March persuaded a group of attorneys and former clerks that the justices will kill the individual mandate, the requirement that nearly all Americans buy health insurance or pay a fine, according to the survey by Purple Insights.
“In March, our experts believed that likelihood (of an overturn) stood at 35%,” said a memo from Doug Usher of Purple Insights. “After hearing the oral arguments and the justices’ questioning, our experts now place that probability at 57%.”
Of course, no one knows for sure what the high court will do with health care law, and when they will do it.
Feel like putting your trust in “legal insiders”? You’re braver than I am.
Since today might just be the day, why not post an open thread? If you want to follow along as decisions get announced, be sure to visit SCOTUSblog’s live blogging of the event. Otherwise … let the speculation begin! Obviously, a decision will get a separate post and analysis, but we may update with other interesting tidbits.
Update: The SEIU lost 7-2 on a case where they imposed a mandatory extra assessment on closed-shop union members, who objected to not having enough notice to protest it. That overturns the Ninth Circuit decision in favor of the SEIU. It will force unions to give more notice on assessments, but doesn’t have much to do with anything else.
Update II: Fox and ABC prevailed over the FCC on fines due to inappropriate content during a live event. Unanimous, but narrow; doesn’t affect FCC rules on limiting such content.
Update III: No rulings today on ObamaCare or the Arizona immigration law. We’ll have to wait for Monday.