Gallup tracking poll: Obama at 43%, down seven points in two weeks

posted at 5:11 pm on June 21, 2012 by Allahpundit

Might just be statistical noise over a long campaign, but that little recent dip is interesting:

I don’t know how to explain the spike halfway through the month. That represents O’s numbers between June 8-10, when his job approval stood at 50/44. Four days later, he was back to 44/49. At first I thought maybe his slide was due to the terrible May jobs report, but no, that came out on June 1. I think the spike is either just an outlier or, possibly, a backlash among Democrats to Scott Walker’s big win in Wisconsin on June 5. O’s numbers actually rose in the next two Gallup polls taken after the recall election before he started to slide again. Could be that Dems felt threatened by the GOP’s big win and momentarily rallied to Obama’s side in hopes of avenging the loss in November. Didn’t last, though. Oh well.

As for the dip in the last few days, could that be a backlash to … this? He announced the new DREAM policy on June 15; as of June 17-19, his job approval was still mostly even at 46/48 but now suddenly he’s at 43/49 today. (Today’s data runs from June 18-20 so there’d only be one day of Fast & Furious reaction built in, in case you’re thinking that’s what’s driving this. Remember too that, thanks to the media, few people outside the conservative base know much about F&F.) I don’t know — maybe it’s a blip, or maybe it’s delayed reaction to the DREAM decision as that news slowly made its way through America’s population of low-information voters. People like Mickey Kaus and Sean Trende have been warning that O’s DREAM gambit might lose him votes on balance because it’ll alienate more working-class whites than it’ll attract Latinos. This might be the first evidence that they’re right. Can’t wait to see Gallup’s numbers next week.

Meanwhile in the swing states, good news and bad news. The bad: Quinnipiac has Obama up four points in Florida, which, if you believe the CW, is supposed to turn red this year. The good: We’ve got yet another poll showing Michigan as a toss up. Four of the last five polls have put the margin at one or two points there (the only outlier, which had Obama up comfortably, was Rasmussen(!)), so yeah, this is now officially a purple state. Which means it’s time for Romney’s “Cold War” strategy to kick in:

Indeed, Republicans’ strategy to defeat Obama looks a lot like an arms race designed to exhaust the opponent, raising cash at record rates, pouring it into traditionally blue states — and forcing Chicago to burn through resources to defend its own territory.

“It’s just like the Cold War. They’re going to force Obama to spend himself into oblivion — while trying to peel off constituencies like the Eastern Bloc,” said a Democratic strategist, citing lingering vulnerability with blue collar workers and potential Republican gains with hispanics. “The only question is which [constituency] will be the first domino.”…

“There’s no way they’ll be able to keep up. Our SuperPACs are our Star Wars, if you will,” said the Republican…

“He can run deficits all he wants as president, but there is no Federal Reserve to print more money for campaigns,” Wilson added. “Republicans are just spending at a rate they can’t keep pace with, and that’s going to hurt him in November.”

I’m still not convinced that O will be outraised, especially if SCOTUS throws the left into a frenzy next week by torpedoing Obama’s big “achievement,” but if it’s true then Michigan’s going to be the northern front for the big Romney offensive. Exit question: Aren’t there any fabulously rich liberals out there willing and able to funnel tens of millions of dollars into an “Obama is the champion of the common man” campaign? Where’s Hollywood when you need them?


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It’s as if the magic has faded a bit, huh?
lol

the new aesthetic on June 21, 2012 at 5:12 PM

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 21, 2012 at 5:13 PM

But wait there’s more….

Oil Can on June 21, 2012 at 5:13 PM

If Obama is up 4 in Florida, which was supposed to be a state Romney was doing well in, then the President is going to win in a cakewalk.

gumbyandpokey on June 21, 2012 at 5:14 PM

It will be worse for him with this executive privilege fiasco…

right2bright on June 21, 2012 at 5:14 PM

I recall when these arrogant fools scoffed and giggled at the Romney campaign.

ObamatheMessiah on June 21, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Can you imagine the trouble that Obama would be in with a decent GOP candidate running against him?

gumbyandpokey on June 21, 2012 at 5:15 PM

just crayons
-gibbsy

tee hee, i know i know it’s still months away, but dang it makes me cautiously optimistic

cmsinaz on June 21, 2012 at 5:16 PM

Terrible polling day for Romney outside of Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on June 21, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Kataklysmic on June 21, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Can you imagine the trouble that Obama would be in with a decent GOP candidate running against him?

Could you imagine the trouble he be in if the Media did their job???

Conservative4ev on June 21, 2012 at 5:17 PM

If Obama is up 4 in Florida, which was supposed to be a state Romney was doing well in, then the President is going to win in a cakewalk.

gumbyandpokey on June 21, 2012 at 5:14 PM

The fact that you believe that poll even after looking at the internals tells me you are an idiot.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 21, 2012 at 5:17 PM

…the President is going to win in a cakewalk.

gumbyandpokey on June 21, 2012 at 5:14 PM

Um yeah, you stick with that.

cozmo on June 21, 2012 at 5:17 PM

Oomph.

That hurt.

BigGator5 on June 21, 2012 at 5:18 PM

No reason to let up even for a second, because we need to create such a storm this time that we get 60 R senators.
And NEVER waste more than a moment gloating about any huge lead, talk about it briefly and hint that it can’t be trusted, and get right back to the issues that are spawning the polls. I think we spent the whole month of October 2010 gloating about polls, in lieu of continuing to concentrate on the issues, and so our victory was not at all as big as it could have been then. (Many voters began to think that a too big R victory would perhaps be bad, and the polls were an unwelcome distraction from what was driving the polls.)

anotherJoe on June 21, 2012 at 5:18 PM

MoveOn endorses Obama

stop the presses…things will change for dear leader now

cmsinaz on June 21, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Now this is the change I can believe in. May it continue.

neyney on June 21, 2012 at 5:18 PM

gumbyandpokey on June 21, 2012 at 5:15 PM

Oh goodie, an ABR troll to kick around. Do enlighten us. Please, we’re dying to know who this mythical GOP candidate might have been to put Mitt to shame.

(5 will get you 10 that he names the chillbilly).

MJBrutus on June 21, 2012 at 5:19 PM

Guess that pandering to Hispanics didn’t work out. Who knew there would be a backlash?

GarandFan on June 21, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Obama at 43%, down seven points in two weeks

What those numbers tell me:

43% of the population is insane.
7% of the population dabbles in insanity.

MichaelGabriel on June 21, 2012 at 5:27 PM

Who knew there would be a backlash?

What HAS bho pandered to that hasn’t been a backlash? bho has gone after every race, business, country in the world and still is a worthless slug at all of them?

What oh what could bho do to see he get re-elected? A major grid your loins might be in the works? I PUT nothing past bho/team.
L

letget on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Moochelle SHARES her husband:
Barack is Your husband, too.
Marriage redefined as Open.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Guess that pandering to Hispanics didn’t work out. Who knew there would be a backlash?

GarandFan on June 21, 2012 at 5:20 PM

…JugEars didn’t eat the Taco Bell dog!…did he?

KOOLAID2 on June 21, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Voters made up their minds about Obama in 2010. Once you get rid of the day to day noise, Obama’s average Gallup job approval over the first half of 2012 is about where it was in 2011 – 45 to 46%. That is likely what his vote tally will be in November.

The only wild card left in the deck is whether the US slides back into a technical GDP recession and unemployment gets even deeper by October. If so, all bets are off on how badly Obama could lose.

Usually, biased Dem media horserace polls have the Dem candidate way out in front in the first half of the year before an election. The fact that they are about tied now shows how deep a hole Obama finds himself.

Bart DePalma on June 21, 2012 at 5:29 PM

I’m still not convinced that O will be outraised, especially if SCOTUS throws the left into a frenzy next week by torpedoing Obama’s big “achievement,”

You really think that will inspire a lot of Dims to open their pocketbooks and donate to Obama? Sure, we know there will be a lot of outrageously outraged Dims bleating next week about the racist, right-wing SCOTUS if they dare to defy Obama, but is yet another embarrassing loss going to make people want to throw even more money at a guy who looks increasingly like he can’t get anything right?

AZCoyote on June 21, 2012 at 5:31 PM

It is about the trends….

enjoy O-bots.

CW on June 21, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Barack is Your husband, too.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

And like all good (Muslim? Kenyan? Indonesian?) husbands, he wants us to submit.

AZCoyote on June 21, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Guess that pandering to Hispanics didn’t work out. Who knew there would be a backlash?

Yes and No.

Texas Legislature passed a Voter ID Law which Obama/Holder are prosecuting. At our last two elections, the voting poll volunteers refuse to look at our drivers’ licenses, unlike former years. They’d only look at the voter registration card and see that the name is on their registration list, verifying addresses. I looked at the fine print on our ballots in Texas where it is written that UNTIL THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT APPROVES THE TEXAS LAW it is not in effect.

So long as the SCOTUS refuses to rule immediately prior to the General Election in favor of State Voter ID Laws, all of the illegal aliens throughout America will be registering and voting (Democrat) for Obama.

If that’s the case, then where’s the EFFECT of the Tea Party backlash?

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

That Q poll in Florida used a RV sample, with a partisan split of 32D/29R/35I. Obama won Florida in 2008 51-48, so Q must be assuming everyting is just as it was and the 3 point gap remains in favor of Dems. This, despite the Bush win in ’04 (52-47), the Rubio win in ’10 in a three candidate race and the 2010 House split in Florida of 55.6R-41.5D. Fourteen points to the good in the House races, and yet Q thinks FLorida is just hunky-dory for Obama.

Anybody agree with that methodology?

MTF on June 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

You know what has been wonderful today, bho HAS not had his face on the tube ALL day! Guess the ep thing and holder has him in his ‘man cave’? But tomorrow here he goes again doing the same old same old krap! Wonder if tomorrow will be the meltdown?
L

letget on June 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

“He can run deficits all he wants as president, but there is no Federal Reserve to print more money for campaigns,” Wilson added.

I wouldn’t feel so sure about that. Call me a conspiracy nutter if you must, but the fed is absolutely NOT above politicization.

abobo on June 21, 2012 at 5:36 PM

first of all, both gallup and rasmussen use moving averages which result in smoothed cycles rather than the straight noise.

however, that rasmussen poll of barry v mitt does have a rather sharp decline at the end.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

but, let’s face it…barry is playing the EC game…picking off state by state (or at least in his Dreams)

but, my advice…keep goin champ..how about total loan forgiveness for all college students? and legal marijuana

r keller on June 21, 2012 at 5:36 PM

Calling all ‘rats, calling all ‘rats, the boat is sinking. Repeat, the boat.is.sinking.

Now I’m worried far less about if Romney wins. I’m now wondering just how big the landslide will be. Funny how one’s perspective changes in just a couple of weeks….

Turtle317 on June 21, 2012 at 5:36 PM

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

I sent that to HA tips….

I want a divorce!

cmsinaz on June 21, 2012 at 5:36 PM

“He can run deficits all he wants as president, but there is no Federal Reserve to print more money for campaigns,” Wilson added.

Please don’t give him any ideas! As for that Florida poll, the numbers are BS. If you believe Obama and Romney are tied with men, Romney’s only up 5 with older voters, and Obama leads by 9 with independents, then we may as well concede Texas to him for God’s sake. There’s no way he’s doing that well in a state that went heavily GOP in 2010 and is one of the worst sufferers of the housing collapse.

Doughboy on June 21, 2012 at 5:37 PM

AZCoyote on June 21, 2012 at 5:33 PM

don’t omit unisex marriages;

“your husband, too” applies to all,

including the genderless gender.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:38 PM

Barack is Your husband, too.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

That would make him a gay husband

faraway on June 21, 2012 at 5:39 PM

the Fed and barry are joined at the hip. barry spends $$$$$$$$ like mad…the Fed has to keep interest rates zirp. if the t-bills/bonds go to 4 percent…the government is in deep trouble

this will happen…sooner or later. Thnx barry…good job, loser

r keller on June 21, 2012 at 5:40 PM

OT: Is anyone else seeing the ad “Happy Birthday, Elizabeth Warren”… get this… “paid for by Elizabeth Warren”

faraway on June 21, 2012 at 5:41 PM

“the President is going to win in a cakewalk.” ahh, err, uhh, I think you meant to say soetoro would beat the dick holder in a perpwalk.

Mr. Sun on June 21, 2012 at 5:42 PM

“Republican consultant Rick Wilson,” no linky to his credentials.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:42 PM

I am sick to death of the political ads already…

OmahaConservative on June 21, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Barack is Your husband, too.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

That would make him a gay husband

faraway on June 21, 2012 at 5:39 PM

TFGP.

bofh on June 21, 2012 at 5:46 PM

If Obama is up 4 in Florida, which was supposed to be a state Romney was doing well in, then the President is going to win in a cakewalk.

gumbyandpokey on June 21, 2012 at 5:14 PM

And If Obama can’t even hold Michigan, he’ll lose a state that voted for Kerry and Gore. He’ll end up with less than Kerry’s numbers and lose in a landslide.

I’m thinking it might be a bit early to call this over; we’ve got indicators of a blowout; but they’re not consistent on which side wins…

gekkobear on June 21, 2012 at 5:46 PM

faraway on June 21, 2012 at 5:41 PM

Got a link?

OmahaConservative on June 21, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Terrible polling day for Romney outside of Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on June 21, 2012 at 12:22 PM

Gallup has ROMNEY up two as of today toadie.

CW on June 21, 2012 at 5:50 PM

People like Mickey Kaus and Sean Trende have been warning that O’s DREAM gambit might lose him votes on balance because it’ll alienate more working-class whites than it’ll attract Latino

Tell Mickey and Sean not to forget about the backlash amongst those of us immigrants who waited in line and came to the U.S. by playing by the rules, Allah.

There are a lot of us, and we are pissed.

JPeterman on June 21, 2012 at 5:52 PM

That Q poll in Florida used a RV sample, with a partisan split of 32D/29R/35I. Obama won Florida in 2008 51-48, so Q must be assuming everyting is just as it was and the 3 point gap remains in favor of Dems. This, despite the Bush win in ’04 (52-47), the Rubio win in ’10 in a three candidate race and the 2010 House split in Florida of 55.6R-41.5D. Fourteen points to the good in the House races, and yet Q thinks FLorida is just hunky-dory for Obama.

Anybody agree with that methodology?

MTF on June 21, 2012 at 5:35 PM

Yes, I do. No problems whatsoever with their methodology unless someone brings up some evidence of methodological problems with their polls.

I don’t believe Obama is ahead in Florida, but I’m not even sure what your point about their methodology is. They don’t have partisan ID numbers, but in this poll Independents vote Obama 46-37, a 17-point shift from their last poll showing Romney ahead with them 44-36. Obviously this is a much more D-leaning sample, but the pollsters can’t pick their samples and IMO shouldn’t weight for partisan ID.

joana on June 21, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 21, 2012 at 5:13 PM

^^this^^

bettycooper on June 21, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Preference cascade gathering momentum.

Going down!

novaculus on June 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

I don’t believe Obama is ahead in Florida, but I’m not even sure what your point about their methodology is. They don’t have partisan ID numbers, but in this poll Independents vote Obama 46-37, a 17-point shift from their last poll showing Romney ahead with them 44-36. Obviously this is a much more D-leaning sample, but the pollsters can’t pick their samples and IMO shouldn’t weight for partisan ID.

joana on June 21, 2012 at 5:52 PM

A 17 point shift from one poll to the next on Indy’s seems fishy, no? Not saying bad polling methodology, but more likely statistical noise/an outlier.

Good Solid B-Plus on June 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Would someone mind passing me a fork?

Bmore on June 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

OmahaConservative on June 21, 2012 at 5:43 PM

+ 100..Hear!..Hear!..:)

PS..What is the latest report on your minister friend??..:)

Dire Straits on June 21, 2012 at 6:00 PM

And so it begins. Among Obama’s biggest problems is that, to quote Arthur Miller, he’s “liked, but not well liked.” When times get tough, and your reservoir of good will is a bit shallow, well … http://bit.ly/qVdDUt

ombdz on June 21, 2012 at 6:00 PM

Things must be bleak for Zero if a push polls DNC operative like Gallup is letting this information out.

Unless their (Gallup/DNC) new strategy is some sort of “comeback” at this point even Eric Holder enabled / promoted vote fraud and race-baiting probably won’t be enough to keep Moochelle in taxpayer lobster heaven past next winter.

viking01 on June 21, 2012 at 6:05 PM

A 17 point shift from one poll to the next on Indy’s seems fishy, no? Not saying bad polling methodology, but more likely statistical noise/an outlier.

Good Solid B-Plus on June 21, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Somewhat. Mind you this Ind. group crosstab has a large margin of error – maybe around 10 percentage points or so – which means all this movement could have occurred within the MoE.

I do agree it’s very unlikely that actual independent voters in Florida changed their voting intentions this much, so one of this polls is less accurate than the other – and I suspect this one is the weakest link.

joana on June 21, 2012 at 6:08 PM

I’ve been re-reading Shlaes THE FORGOTTEN MAN.

Highly recommended account of The Great Depression that went on and on in America throughout WWII US rations while the rest of the world miraculously recovered until WWII rations and destruction.

While Obama reprieves an amalgamation of Lenin/Stalin/FDR/Mao, I would not put it past kinder-gentler KEYNESIAN Rockefeller Romney to attempt playing a federal “benevolent-hand” FDR-socio-economic authoritarian manipulator from the Oval Office.

Since predicting that Romney will bail-out the global banking industry with US tax dollars via the Federal Reserve derivative debt gambling pirates, I’ve seen his headline at Drudge: “I won’t write Europe any checks”. Debt is debt. In ’08, Romney suggested that corporations should be allowed to go bankrupt in order to settle value according to the market. But he has never spoken against the Federal Reserve bailing out Paulson’s global economic fraud that Congress determined to lay on the backs of us, the American tax payers to repay debts that aren’t even OURS. As if our government debt isn’t insane enough, or because our debt is so impossible to repay, just make it bigger and worse in the guise of all kinds of pretty promises. We citizen tax payers and small business owners are NOT getting any benefits from any government tax funded bail-out, and never will no matter.

Romney hasn’t denounced Obama’s executive ordered Dream Act, either.

True enough, we can’t be rid of Obama soon enough. I was for his Impeachment since his first act in office to Break Contract Law and require US taxpayers to bail-out the “imported from Detroit” auto industry.

I’ve heard Romney supporters call in responding that it’s not his place to stipulate any such conservative stances as his agenda, because it’s too soon to clarify his platform.

Whoever authorized a more inane and ineffective strategy than STFU and get in line? Stalin, et al.

From Obama to Obamalite, “The Repo Men” by Williamson @ NRO, Dec.28, 2011.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 6:08 PM

we have to pass the bill before you can find out what’s in it…Pelosi

we have to win the election before you find out what you just “won”…RNC

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Now look who’s stuck in the ditch. Keep digging buddy.

HellCat on June 21, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Obama supporters are out of work, out of money, and on welfare. Do you think Obama can raise more than the Republican candidate?

The Mittwits will have their guy in the White House but remember you reap what you sow.

jdun on June 21, 2012 at 6:10 PM

if SCOTUS throws the left into a frenzy next week by torpedoing Obama’s big “achievement,”

They will run from him, IMHO. The guy is becoming radioactive. His donations are drying up. 80% of those who donated in 2008 have refused to give him cash and he’s paying out more than he’s taking in.

There is no telling how much his campaign owes, on top of what it has spent.

Or does someone have that info? I have looked. The executive privilege move will hurt him also.

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 21, 2012 at 5:13 PM

He may be, but they will need to CGI in the audience…

dogsoldier on June 21, 2012 at 6:13 PM

The Mittwits will have their guy in the White House but remember you reap what you sow.

jdun on June 21, 2012 at 6:10 PM

So they should vote for Obama…hmmmm

CW on June 21, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Pics of the Day: President Downgrade Gets Downgraded

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/pics-of-day-president-downgrade.html

M2RB: The Kinks

Resist We Much on June 21, 2012 at 6:40 PM

I know! He can announce a bail-out to gay female illegal immigrants, that’ll help. I promise. It’s worked so well for him so far.

obladioblada on June 21, 2012 at 6:49 PM

O/T Why are the comments centered in the comboxes? They’re hard to read, left justification is easier on the eye.

obladioblada on June 21, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I’ve applied fat Al Gore’s trend analysis software to that graph and come up with a hockey stick up for Governor Romney and down for little Bammie.

slickwillie2001 on June 21, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Terrible polling day for Romney outside of Rasmussen.

libfreeordie on June 21, 2012 at 12:22 PM
Kataklysmic on June 21, 2012 at 5:17 PM

I saw this earlier today and I laughed, and laughed- then I went into a meeting where there are several of us that post here at HotAir, and we all laughed and laughed. Then we felt bad because libfreeandlie is probably about at the end of his sad, little rope.

BettyRuth on June 21, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 21, 2012 at 5:13 PM

Prediction: He’ll video remote in from some “crisis” situation.

SouthernGent on June 21, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Barack is Your husband, too.

maverick muse on June 21, 2012 at 5:28 PM

Well then, where were you last night, you shiftless, narcissistic putzt? Get out there and mow that lawn! No, I’m NOT cooking dinner for BiteMe, too. Who is that crabby-lookin’ female, following you around? She ate all my French fries! Shut those kids up, will you? Get your dang dog off my couch, and don’t let me catch you in my Carmen Miranda Samba dress, again!

TheClearRiver on June 21, 2012 at 8:24 PM

It’s pretty obvious they didn’t poll too many Hispanics. Aren’t these polling companies on the payroll, when Obama panders to a group, they’re supposed to go out and poll them so they can show a big jump in his poll numbers.

bflat879 on June 21, 2012 at 9:13 PM

Aren’t there any fabulously rich liberals out there willing and able to funnel tens of millions of dollars into an “Obama is the champion of the common man” campaign?

You’d think there was a big, fat one right in Michigan, too.

holygoat on June 22, 2012 at 12:33 AM

As for the dip in the last few days, could that be a backlash to … this? He announced the new DREAM policy on June 15; as of June 17-19, his job approval was still mostly even at 46/48 but now suddenly he’s at 43/49 today. (Today’s data runs from June 18-20 so there’d only be one day of Fast & Furious reaction built in, in case you’re thinking that’s what’s driving this. Remember too that, thanks to the media, few people outside the conservative base know much about F&F.)

Rasmussen seems to be following the same pattern. General election now Romney 48/Obama 43; Obama approve/disapprove 44/54; Obama strongly approve/strongly disapprove 23/45.

Over the past few months, Obama’s net approval rating has been mostly in the low (negative) single digits, suddenly it’s -10, and his strongly approve/disapprove deficit has been in the negative mid-teens, suddenly it’s -22.

It may take time for the reaction to the Executive DREAM to affect the white electorate, and an Attorney General held in Contempt of Congress and asserting Executive Privilege probably reminds older voters of Nixon, just a few days after the 40th anniversary of the Watergate break-in.

It could be statistical noise, but is Obama really starting to crater?

Steve Z on June 22, 2012 at 3:35 PM