Obama’s panicky pander on immigration

posted at 10:12 pm on June 20, 2012 by Karl

The establishment media will tell you Obama’s new non-enforcement of immigration law is a political masterstroke. “It’s a trap! for Republicans, it is written. A flash poll proclaims it’s overwhelmingly popular with likely voters. The WaPo’s Aaron Blake, while adding more nuance than most along the way, stresses the conventional wisdom:

President Obama’s announcement Friday that he would stop the deportation of some 800,000 young illegal immigrants who were brought to this country by their parents isn’t likely to increase his share of the Latino vote much.

But there is still plenty for him to gain: turnout and enthusiasm in a community in which both are severely lacking.

***

And initially at least, it looks as if his announcement Friday has done some good.

A new Latino Decisions poll of Hispanic voters in five key states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia) shows 49 percent say his announcement makes them more enthusiastic about him, versus 14 percent who say it makes them less enthusiastic.

Any polling done so closely to a major decision is likely to exaggerate the bump to some degree, but it’s certainly helpful for Obama (no less because Republicans are tripping over themselves in search of a response).

Although Obama’s announcement is undoubtedly part of a campaign strategy of pandering to and mobilizing the Democratic party’s clients, the conventional wisdom is likely wrong.

As RCP’s Sean Trende explains, Latinos are underrepresented in swing states and after accounting for Florida’s idiosyncratic Cuban Latinos, we are really only talking about Colorado and Nevada. The Guardian’s Harry J. Enten crunched numbers for the states mentioned in the Latino Decisions poll, confirming that Colorado and Nevada are the key states. Enten looked at a better-than-best-case scenario for Team Obama. Noting that in 2008, only 50% of eligible Latinos voted, compared with 64% of the overall population, Enten calculated the gain for Obama if he had registered and turned out Latinos at the 64% rate. He found Obama would have gained only 0.64% in Colorado and a mere 0.37% in Nevada.

Moreover, Enten notes that the GOP candidate would actually win some of those votes and scholars think Latinos will make up the same percentage (or less) of the electorate as they did in 2008. In addition, Trende observes that Obama’s decision potentially alienates other voters. In short, the likelihood that Obama significantly benefits from the new immigration policy is slim at best.

But what about the polls showing how popular the policy is? Here, the establishment is ignoring the concept of intensity (as it often does). As Enten notes, Latinos are more concerned about the economy than immigration, just like everyone else. He later quipped on Twitter:

 

Moreover, I tend to agree with Ed Morrissey that — especially given the very marginal possible benefit — they “fired this gun too early.” Why? Ed implied that Team Obama is getting panicky about Romney’s campaign. In particular, I would note it may have been intended in part to preempt Romney’s Thursday speech before the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials in Florida. Others have speculated it was intended to blunt the impact of an anticipated Supreme Court decision on Arizona’s immigration law. And perhaps one factor might be Team Obama’s desire to give the media a story about their stumbling candidate going on offense. But the reality is that Obama’s latest pander is neither a masterstroke nor going on offense.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
To see the comments on the original post, look here.


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Obama is finished….

Done…

Toast..

One Termer….

A-hole….

Electrongod on June 20, 2012 at 10:14 PM

…not again!

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 10:14 PM

The Barack Obama Campaign just throws handfuls of feces at the wall and sees what sticks — then they run with it. it is — literally — all they’ve got.

And it is beautiful!

FlatFoot on June 20, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Timing. Obama ain’t got it.

Curtiss on June 20, 2012 at 10:17 PM

Does he really think this pandering is gonna help???…. Forget it dummy, your done……….;)

angrymike on June 20, 2012 at 10:17 PM

The Emperor’s got no clothes.

listens2glenn on June 20, 2012 at 10:17 PM

How do you say THUD or CLUNK in Spanish?

Rixon on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

The Barack Obama Campaign just throws handfuls of feces at the wall and sees what sticks — then they run with it. it is — literally — all they’ve got.

And it is beautiful!

FlatFoot on June 20, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Signs of an Amateur..

Electrongod on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

They needed this pander like I need a hole in my head.

Corporal Tunnel on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

It’ll be great and the masses will feel so good about themselves and helping out the less fortunate, until their neighborhood turns into an ethnic enclave and their kids are living in their basement because they can’t find a job.

HornetSting on June 20, 2012 at 10:19 PM

How do you say THUD or CLUNK in Spanish?

Rixon on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

Obama…

No….
really…

Electrongod on June 20, 2012 at 10:19 PM

How do you say THUD or CLUNK in Spanish?

Rixon on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

El Obama.

HornetSting on June 20, 2012 at 10:22 PM

A new Marquette University poll shows Obama easily beating Romney in Wisconsin by a 49-43 margin. This is a very good polling outfit that nailed the Walker recall race. For whatever reason, Obama is very popular here and Romney is very unpopular here.

gumbyandpokey on June 20, 2012 at 10:22 PM

¡Ay, caramba!

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 10:24 PM

How do you say THUD or CLUNK in Spanish?

Rixon on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

El THUD-O
El CLUNK-O

bgibbs1000 on June 20, 2012 at 10:24 PM

The master stroke hurts him in Michigan and Ohio, probably Pennsylvania too.

But when you have nothing else to play – and he has nothing – you throw what you have. I am enjoying the crackup immensely.

Zomcon JEM on June 20, 2012 at 10:25 PM

Announced waaay too early in the campaign to make the needed impact in CO and NV, and didn’t do a thing for him in national polls, Gallup and Rassmusen. Now it all might be undone as Fast and Furious finally begins to receive widespread notice via the Holder-in-contempt debate in the House, and the general public learns for the first time how many Mexicans were killed as a result of Obama’s gun running operation. Which he’s invoked Executive Privilege in order not to disclose how.

de rigueur on June 20, 2012 at 10:26 PM

How do you say THUD or CLUNK in Spanish?

Rixon on June 20, 2012 at 10:18 PM

….butthurto ?
like burrito…with the emphasis on ‘hurt’)

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 10:29 PM

According to Andrew Malcolm of Investors Business Daily,there was no bump with his immigration fiasco.

ohiobabe on June 20, 2012 at 10:30 PM

“What about the American workers Mr. President?”

Seven Percent Solution on June 20, 2012 at 10:30 PM

The Emperor’s got no clothes.

listens2glenn on June 20, 2012 at 10:17 PM

…and look!…he has a pegina!

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Nothing would please me more then for this man to be brought down so low that he would have to jump to reach the top of a curb.

the new aesthetic on June 20, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I wish Obama would just stop with all this fluff and talk about the economy. Oops!

AubieJon on June 20, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I want to watch this man self destruct. He is becoming so desperate; he must know that he is a failure and that the only way he can possibly win is to throw the crap on the wall and see what sticks. Pander to gays. Pander to Latinos. Pander to blacks. If he thought there were enough to swing the vote he would pander to gay, bi-racial (black and Latino) pandas.

Need to buy more popcorn. This is going to be fun.

BTW: barack sucks.

DuctTapeMyBrain on June 20, 2012 at 10:32 PM

OBAMA ENACTED THIS NEW POLICY BY FIAT BECAUSE – AS A PERSON WHO WAS BORN IN KENYA AND THEN BROUGHT TO AMERICA AS A BABY AND THEN RAISED IN INDONESIA AND THEN BROUGHT TO THE USA AGAINST HIS WILL – HE EMPATHIZES WITH THEM.

HEH.

reliapundit on June 20, 2012 at 10:32 PM

de rigueur on June 20, 2012 at 10:26 PM

In general, I agree with you. My concern is based on those folks that only get their news from MSM. Some of those folks hear Fast and Furious and think, “Wasn’t that the horse that won the Kentucky Derby?”

I hope that the contempt proceedings, and subsequent fallout will force the media to disclose the ugly truth. *sigh* Yeah, I know.

4Grace on June 20, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Doesn’t matter now… he just slit his own throat by invoking Exec. Immun.

Before that, he could get away with… “oh those crazy kids over at justice.” Besides, he needs Holder in place to keep a leash on the FBI… lest they open the wrong box before the election.

Now he owns it all… F & F ads with his face, and in Spanish, are now fair game.

And, given all his other actions, a proper ad campaign could destroy his lock on the Hispanic vote.

CPT. Charles on June 20, 2012 at 10:37 PM

The Barack Obama Campaign just throws handfuls of feces at the wall and sees what sticks — then they run with it. it is — literally — all they’ve got.

And it is beautiful!

FlatFoot on June 20, 2012 at 10:16 PM

Think about little Bammie’s campaign team, -they have been working at it full-time since mid-2007. The campaign never ended. How much longer can they keep it up? Little Bammie has no one else to turn to. Axleshaft is looking like a dog that’s been beat down once too often.

We could see a total campaign collapse.

slickwillie2001 on June 20, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Obama is a bad politician. A good politician, like Bill Clinton, would have come out and gotten completely behind that idiot Rubio’s DREAM ACT II. Obama should have called Pelosi and Reid and told them to make it happen. Called a big conference to announce how this is an issue that shows how real bipartisanship can be made to work. Do it for the children. Doctor up the bill, make it more liberal, more like the original DREAM ACT. Rubio and the Republicans, caught in a trap of their own making, wouldn’t dare make a scene and risk torpedoing their own legislation. Obama could have pretty much taken credit for the whole thing, and emerged as a real hero to his party.

Meanwhile, Obama causes a huge gap to open up between Romney and a significant chunk of his own party. If Romney caves and endorses the legislation, he alienates his base, as well as moderates and working class Dems who don’t like the illegal situation any more than conservatives do. He looks like a flip flopper and a weakling. If he stands firm, he also looks weak, afraid of his own base, an insensitive troglodyte who is on the wrong side of history.

Instead, Obama, afraid of Rubio for no apparent reason, cut off Rubio’s balls and left him hanging. Romney, who I posit is not pleased with Rubio and his shennanigans, is then able to finish Rubio off by leaking that he is not being vetted for VP. Obama just did Romney’s work for him.

Amateur is right.

Mr. Arkadin on June 20, 2012 at 10:39 PM

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 20, 2012 at 10:43 PM

Have any of the presidential debates been announced yet?

AubieJon on June 20, 2012 at 10:45 PM

I hope that the contempt proceedings, and subsequent fallout will force the media to disclose the ugly truth. *sigh* Yeah, I know.

4Grace on June 20, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Media will be forced to report, however briefly and however they attempt to bury it (see the ABC News/Diane Sawyer thread), at least the “events” (Holder held in contempt by the House, Holder sued by the House in civil court, Obama defends Holder, etc.) and whatever minimal explanation or “context” they think they can get away with in order to maintain any credibility at all.

But the reportage will raise as many and more questions than it answers and some people, including some to whom Obama is pandering, will start to ask around, or look for other sources of information. Slowly, even if only at the margins (where Obama was hoping to make his gains with his directive), the full story will leak out.

And although the media and political sides of the story intrigue me, in the end this is about justice for the slain… and the malefactors. As long as the House gets those documents and intensifies the investigation, what ABC does is of no consequence anymore.

de rigueur on June 20, 2012 at 10:45 PM

If we haven’t learned one thing, we should learn this one thing: whatever the “overwhelming” meme is as pushed by Leftmedia where the Democrats and especially Obama is concerned, that’s the one meme that’s not true.

Obama’s Rose Garden announcement about this mess was last Friday. By Saturday morning, the Leftmedia was peppered with overtly joyous, madly grinning, evervescent Leftwing people all gleefully rejoicing about Obama and how his announcement was great…

So it’s an obvious ploy by the Left to get something started. And that the media is trying to pathetically continue to harp away on this as if Obama now represents some tidal wave of happy-happy-joy-joy-amnesty, we should all pause and consider the source/s.

Romney is very smart to remain aloof from this and to keep on his track as he’s going, especially since he’s looking far more Presidential than Obama is.

Lourdes on June 20, 2012 at 10:46 PM

A new Latino Decisions poll of Hispanic voters in five key states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia) shows 49 percent say his announcement makes them more enthusiastic about him, versus 14 percent who say it makes them less enthusiastic.

Where those same people polled about Barry’s DOJ supplying arms to the Mexican drug cartels so that Mexican citizens could get murdered? Wonder how much “more enthusiastic” that should make them?

GarandFan on June 20, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 20, 2012 at 10:43 PM

I’m not sure about that. Yes, his ego cannot take the thought of losing. But, his ego also assures him that no other person could do a better job. Also, Hillary (or anyone else) is not under the spell, nor is she beholden to Valerie J. or anyone in the Chicago machine. They need someone (Obama) that they can influence/control.

4Grace on June 20, 2012 at 10:47 PM

Obama is siding with child molesters

faraway on June 20, 2012 at 10:51 PM

A new Latino Decisions poll of Hispanic voters in five key states (Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Nevada and Virginia) shows 49 percent say his announcement makes them more enthusiastic about him, versus 14 percent who say it makes them less enthusiastic.

Poll Headline:

Do you want a new truck free or do you want to have to pay for it?

Lourdes on June 20, 2012 at 10:53 PM

El Obama.
HornetSting on June 20, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Don’t you mean La Obama? After all, he is TFFP.

txhsmom on June 20, 2012 at 10:53 PM

OT: Please keep Pastor Norm Friedmeyer in your prayers. He is one of my closest friends and a Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod pastor. He is seventy five years old and fit as a fiddle normally, but Saturday he was trimming branches and a limb knocked him off his ladder and pinned him, breaking over half his bones. His intestines have ‘gone to sleep’ whatever that means. He is truly a godly man and a very conservative and orthodox Christian and American gentleman. keep his dear wife June in prayers as well. Thanks and God Bless…

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 10:54 PM

Obama will extend the vote, by executive fiat, to all primates born within the U.S. borders who are currently over 18 in chimp years.

One “Ooo-ooo!” will mean a Democrat vote.

To vote Republican, however, they will have to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.

profitsbeard on June 20, 2012 at 10:55 PM

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 10:54 PM

You got it, OC!

4Grace on June 20, 2012 at 10:56 PM

In addition to all the Karl-reasons there is one more – to give Felipe de Jesús Calderón Hinojosa the ability to stroke Obama’s non-beard.

Schadenfreude on June 20, 2012 at 10:56 PM

@Omaha So sorry to hear about your dear friend. I’ll definitely pray for him and his wife.

txhsmom on June 20, 2012 at 10:57 PM

You got it, OC!

4Grace on June 20, 2012 at 10:56 PM

+1

Schadenfreude on June 20, 2012 at 10:58 PM

I’m actually a little surprised his amnesty was somewhat limited in scope and pretty late in the campaign. I thought they would give themselves at least a year to get all the illegals registered to vote.

txhsmom on June 20, 2012 at 11:01 PM

I know that Obama is suppose to be the biggest baddest rootin tootin deporter but seriously, what are the chance any of these kids were in danger unless the committed a crime?

Cindy Munford on June 20, 2012 at 11:04 PM

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 10:54 PM

This is indeed sad news. I will keep Pastor Freidmeyer and his wife in my thoughts and prayers.

Cindy Munford on June 20, 2012 at 11:06 PM

Down here on the border. hispanics are getting really at pissed at barryOs administration. The WH seems for forget the ICE agent killed was named Jaime Zapata and his injured partner Victor Avila, were both hispanic men. Their attorney’s filed suit last week on behalf of their families. Border Patrol is all over the news fuming about the Brian Terry documents.
I don’t think his pandering to latinos is gonna work this time.

lonestar1 on June 20, 2012 at 11:12 PM

Thanks for the prayers, dear HA family…

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 11:17 PM

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 10:54 PM

So sorry to hear about your friend. Already sent up a prayer for him and his family.

silvernana on June 21, 2012 at 12:04 AM

If you axxholes don’t understand how pandering to a losing cause is responsible for 0bama losing more ground in the poos then ….
.
.
.
.wait
.
.
.it’s coming
.
.
.
.
just about.
.
.
.
just a bit more
.
.
.
I mean you know what is coming, right?
.
.
.
Wait for it..
.
.
.
RACIST!!!!!!!!!!

jukin3 on June 21, 2012 at 12:05 AM

So, Americans widely oppose amnesty for illegals, and they widely support Arizona’s attempt to enforce U.S. immigration laws, BUT they support Obama’s non-enforcement or said immigration laws.

Have I got that right?

minnesoter on June 21, 2012 at 12:17 AM

“This is the right thing to do(tm) for Americans.”

“But they’re not Americans.”

“Don’t interrupt me.”

The Rogue Tomato on June 21, 2012 at 12:18 AM

OT: Please keep Pastor Norm Friedmeyer in your prayers. He is one of my closest friends and a Lutheran Church-Missouri Synod pastor. He is seventy five years old and fit as a fiddle normally, but Saturday he was trimming branches and a limb knocked him off his ladder and pinned him, breaking over half his bones. His intestines have ‘gone to sleep’ whatever that means. He is truly a godly man and a very conservative and orthodox Christian and American gentleman. keep his dear wife June in prayers as well. Thanks and God Bless…

OmahaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 10:54 PM

I … I don’t know what to say. Was he using a chainsaw and how tall was the ladder?

Anyways, I hope he pulls through.

minnesoter on June 21, 2012 at 12:35 AM

I’m beginning to figure out that most of the established posters say their “nighty-nights” on the “Comment of the Day” thread, but just to be different, I offer mine here. Good night, Allah P. Good night, everyone. Don’t forget to put the cat out.

minnesoter on June 21, 2012 at 12:43 AM

So, Americans widely oppose amnesty for illegals, and they widely support Arizona’s attempt to enforce U.S. immigration laws, BUT they support Obama’s non-enforcement or said immigration laws.

Have I got that right?

minnesoter on June 21, 2012 at 12:17 AM

Little Bammie said the magic word, -’children’.

slickwillie2001 on June 21, 2012 at 12:50 AM

Everyone I know is appalled. And very fearful for their children. Great. A fine combination of criminals who can commit crime at will and merely cross the border to be free of gringo justice, or jobs that will go to foreigners instead of Americans.
Thank you Obama.

pat on June 21, 2012 at 1:16 AM

All Romney should do until after his oath of office is to say loud a clear when pressed on this issue.

The last amnesty not only failed but provoked this horrible situation -horrible for all of us including Hispanics, those many who are legal Americans as well as those here illegally.

I fully will seek to reward first, those Hispanics who are patiently waiting in line, as they should, while this disaster caused by the last blanket amnesty plays out.

Don L on June 21, 2012 at 3:31 AM

Don’t forget to put the cat out.

minnesoter on June 21, 2012 at 12:43 AM

Damn!…The cat’s on fire again?

SKYFOX on June 21, 2012 at 6:11 AM

Neil Boortz’s believes Obama will remove himself off the ballot this fall for some medical reason. I’m starting to believe this. At the end of the day, liberalism must survive. Hello, Joe Biden campaign for President.

jjnco73 on June 21, 2012 at 7:55 AM

I think the Kardashian Administration pulled the trigger (metaphorically speaking) too early on this one… The elephant in the room is the Executive Privilege on Fast & Furious… A proper ad campaign on THAT will do more damage than a tsunami…

Khun Joe on June 21, 2012 at 8:04 AM

Panicky?
Uh, no.

Calculated?
Yes.

Just like when Reagan, Bush, Bush Daddy and Clinton used executive orders to change deportation policy.

Yawn.

Dave Rywall on June 21, 2012 at 8:24 AM

Just like when Reagan, Bush, Bush Daddy and Clinton used executive orders to change deportation policy.

Yawn.

Dave Rywall on June 21, 2012 at 8:24 AM

So it’s okay with you if a Republican pulls the same crap in line with conservative principles?

gryphon202 on June 21, 2012 at 8:43 AM

Let me see now. I am an illegal immigrant wanting to stay in this country permanently. Obama is gonna give me a two year green card if I identify myself to the government, tell them where I live, how long I been here, nearest of kin. All I have to do in return is vote for Obama. Then for the rest of my life I gotta live in fear that Obama is not going to throw me under the bus like he did Rev Wright, his grandma, and oddles of other unfortunates. I don’t think so Poopsie.

Herb on June 21, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Obama’s quivver
Only so many arrows
He has one less now

Haiku Guy on June 21, 2012 at 9:06 AM

EXPENDED:
Gay Marriage “Evolution”
DREAM Act Lite
Fudged Unemployment Figures
Stimulus I, II and III
QE, QEII
OBL
Leaks on Drone War

EXPENDING:
QEIII
Leaks on Cyber War

TO BE EXPENDED:
Mortgage Forgivness
Student Loan rule changes to permit discharge in bankrupcy
Wag the Dog on Syria

Haiku Guy on June 21, 2012 at 9:35 AM

So it’s okay with you if a Republican pulls the same crap in line with conservative principles?

gryphon202 on June 21, 2012 at 8:43 AM

yep.

Dave Rywall on June 21, 2012 at 9:50 AM