Michigan: Romney 45, Obama 43?

posted at 4:13 pm on June 20, 2012 by Allahpundit

I thought about blogging the dumb new Bloomberg poll showing Obama leading Romney by a million gazillion points nationally but even I’m not enough of an eeyore to take it seriously. Show me an eight- or nine-point Obama lead and, yeah, I’ll do a little pants-wetting over that; I won’t really believe the numbers, but I’m enough of a pessimist to know that the worst-case scenario is always worse than you think. A thirteen-point lead, though? No sale, not when every other national poll taken over the last seven weeks (except one) has had O leading by seven points or less. (The one exception had Obama by eight.) I don’t know what’s more embarrassing, the fact that Bloomberg’s pollster somehow arrived at that result or that Bloomberg itself decided to publish it. Traffic is traffic, I guess. If nothing else, the article’s worth reading for this line from a voter from Ohio on O’s economic challenge circa 2009: “He was basically handed a sick drug baby and expected to make a genius out of it overnight.”

Guy Benson posted some questions demonstrating just how absurd the Bloomy results are. What happened here isn’t complicated: It’s an outlier (a big one). It happens. Not worth worrying about. So let’s spend some time on something more pleasant. Dude:

The good news: 1,000+ likely voters is a solid sample, if the Democratic/Republican split is true to life. Is it? I can’t find the numbers anywhere at the last link. The bad news? This pollster, We Ask America, correctly predicted that Scott Walker would win big in Wisconsin — but they overestimated the final margin considerably. WAA’s last two polls before the recall had Walker beating Barrett by 12 points; in fact, he won by a little less than seven. If they’re overestimating Romney’s support by the same margin then O’s narrowly ahead, which would jibe with RCP’s poll average putting him up by 4.2 points. That’s okay, though; the goal right now isn’t to lead in Michigan but simply to make it competitive enough that Obama has to divert money earmarked for swing states in order to shore up his support there. And that’s not the only reliably blue midwestern state where Romney’s suddenly in the hunt:

Mitt Romney predicted earlier this week on his bus tour that he would win Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes in November, but a new poll released Wednesday shows he is still trailing President Obama in the Badger State.

Among likely general-election voters, Obama leads Romney, 49 percent to 43 percent, according to the poll, conducted last week by Marquette Law School in Milwaukee. Seven percent of voters are undecided or did not respond to that question on the survey.

Strange that Romney would be having a tougher time in Wisconsin, where the GOP just had its biggest victory since the 2010 midterms, while O would be having a tougher time in Michigan, which was supposed to be irreversibly blue after the auto bailout. Ah well. To further stoke your optimism, go read Stuart Rothenberg on why Obama’s now the (slight) underdog and Nate Silver on why O’s DREAM mega-pander might not be as successful as he’d hoped. Even if it locks up two-thirds of the Latino vote for him, there aren’t that many Latino voters comparatively in the swing states he needs in November. There are, however, plenty of white working-class voters who haven’t been thrilled with Hopenchange for awhile. Is the DREAM pander a net vote winner or loser for him in states like Ohio and Virginia?


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