Michigan: Romney 45, Obama 43?

posted at 4:13 pm on June 20, 2012 by Allahpundit

I thought about blogging the dumb new Bloomberg poll showing Obama leading Romney by a million gazillion points nationally but even I’m not enough of an eeyore to take it seriously. Show me an eight- or nine-point Obama lead and, yeah, I’ll do a little pants-wetting over that; I won’t really believe the numbers, but I’m enough of a pessimist to know that the worst-case scenario is always worse than you think. A thirteen-point lead, though? No sale, not when every other national poll taken over the last seven weeks (except one) has had O leading by seven points or less. (The one exception had Obama by eight.) I don’t know what’s more embarrassing, the fact that Bloomberg’s pollster somehow arrived at that result or that Bloomberg itself decided to publish it. Traffic is traffic, I guess. If nothing else, the article’s worth reading for this line from a voter from Ohio on O’s economic challenge circa 2009: “He was basically handed a sick drug baby and expected to make a genius out of it overnight.”

Guy Benson posted some questions demonstrating just how absurd the Bloomy results are. What happened here isn’t complicated: It’s an outlier (a big one). It happens. Not worth worrying about. So let’s spend some time on something more pleasant. Dude:

The good news: 1,000+ likely voters is a solid sample, if the Democratic/Republican split is true to life. Is it? I can’t find the numbers anywhere at the last link. The bad news? This pollster, We Ask America, correctly predicted that Scott Walker would win big in Wisconsin — but they overestimated the final margin considerably. WAA’s last two polls before the recall had Walker beating Barrett by 12 points; in fact, he won by a little less than seven. If they’re overestimating Romney’s support by the same margin then O’s narrowly ahead, which would jibe with RCP’s poll average putting him up by 4.2 points. That’s okay, though; the goal right now isn’t to lead in Michigan but simply to make it competitive enough that Obama has to divert money earmarked for swing states in order to shore up his support there. And that’s not the only reliably blue midwestern state where Romney’s suddenly in the hunt:

Mitt Romney predicted earlier this week on his bus tour that he would win Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes in November, but a new poll released Wednesday shows he is still trailing President Obama in the Badger State.

Among likely general-election voters, Obama leads Romney, 49 percent to 43 percent, according to the poll, conducted last week by Marquette Law School in Milwaukee. Seven percent of voters are undecided or did not respond to that question on the survey.

Strange that Romney would be having a tougher time in Wisconsin, where the GOP just had its biggest victory since the 2010 midterms, while O would be having a tougher time in Michigan, which was supposed to be irreversibly blue after the auto bailout. Ah well. To further stoke your optimism, go read Stuart Rothenberg on why Obama’s now the (slight) underdog and Nate Silver on why O’s DREAM mega-pander might not be as successful as he’d hoped. Even if it locks up two-thirds of the Latino vote for him, there aren’t that many Latino voters comparatively in the swing states he needs in November. There are, however, plenty of white working-class voters who haven’t been thrilled with Hopenchange for awhile. Is the DREAM pander a net vote winner or loser for him in states like Ohio and Virginia?


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…I live with a great many stupid people…sorry!

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 4:16 PM

…except for me…most of the smart ones from my state…post here.

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 4:17 PM

this race is shaping up to have the potential of a blow out of historical proportions for an incumbent POTUS. I suspect O and team have some major ammo they are prepping because so far they are getting creamed left and right and if these trends continue unabated, it will be a very good election night for team romney and the gop.

gatorboy on June 20, 2012 at 4:18 PM

How did that illegal alien and gay marriage pandering work for you?

Oil Can on June 20, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Net loser in Ohio and Virginia methinks

cmsinaz on June 20, 2012 at 4:18 PM

…the people are starting to see that after 8 years of the socialist Grandmole and her disaster…a Nerd is starting to turn the state around…a Romney type nerd!

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 4:19 PM

…except for me…most of the smart ones from my state…post here.

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 4:17 PM

I LOVE hardcore pawn!!!
Detroit is entertaining.

HornetSting on June 20, 2012 at 4:19 PM

The Bloomberg isn’t supposed to make anybody believe that Obama is up by 13. It is meant to shift the aggregators. RCP will now have a two point bias for Zero through at least the rest of June. And so continues the latest trend in polling, expanding on a national level what PPP has pioneered on the state level.

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM

TFNP will simply claim executive privilege and declare Michigan’s electoral votes as belonging to him.

Bishop on June 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Erick Holder held in contempt of Congress…

SWalker on June 20, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Breaking: The House Oversight Committee has just voted to report to the House, Holder in contempt of Congress.

de rigueur on June 20, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Clearly, 45% of the state of Michigan is raaaaaaaaaaaacist.

“Eric, unleash the NBPP”

- King Tuts

NapaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 4:24 PM

BOOM shaka laka laka?

Bishop on June 20, 2012 at 4:25 PM

AP likes to scare us with pics. This is why he is anonymous.

kim roy on June 20, 2012 at 4:26 PM

I rather believe in the Bloomberg poll. Barry is up by 13 points and has it in the bag. He can now stop stuttering and pandering.

bayview on June 20, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Erick Holder held in contempt of Congress…

SWalker on June 20, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Eric Holder and Barry are held in contempt by history.

bayview on June 20, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Romney will still have to contest Ohio and Flordia, but I think they’re safer GOP bets.

Notice Obama’s absence from Florida on all of his recent cross-country, taxpayer-funded campaign trips. I don’t think Team Zero’s too confident about their chances in the Sunshine State and will end up deciding to concentrate resources elsewhere. If those resources go toward playing defense in the Upper Midwest, then Romney can concentrate on pushing states like Virginia, Iowa, and Colorado back into the GOP column.

If Romney wins the McCain states plus Indiana and Nebraska-2 (sure things), North Carolina (pretty much a sure thing), Florida (looking likely), and Ohio (trending that way), he only needs two or three more states.

Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan seem like the best bets. Nevada may be tough, and New Hampshire isn’t looking that doable right now.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:28 PM

MI MItt. Mitt’s home state, for real. Reel it in. Take it home.

anotherJoe on June 20, 2012 at 4:29 PM

The Bloomberg isn’t supposed to make anybody believe that Obama is up by 13. It is meant to shift the aggregators. RCP will now have a two point bias for Zero through at least the rest of June. And so continues the latest trend in polling, expanding on a national level what PPP has pioneered on the state level.

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Yep. It was down to .2 this morning. Now it’s back up over two+ with this bogus poll.

kevinkristy on June 20, 2012 at 4:30 PM

TFNP will simply claim executive privilege and declare Michigan’s electoral votes as belonging to him.

Bishop on June 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I’ve been trying to figure out all day what the “N” stands for.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Allah, be sure Humpbot gets plenty of rest before November. Me thinks he is doing to be one busy dude!!

Deano1952 on June 20, 2012 at 4:31 PM

The good news: 1,000+ likely voters is a solid sample, if the Democratic/Republican split is true to life. Is it? I can’t find the numbers anywhere at the last link.

Man! Good thing this isn’t a poll that shows Obama ahead, otherwise Ed would be FUMING right now!

RanchTooth on June 20, 2012 at 4:33 PM

Allah, be sure Humpbot gets plenty of rest before November. Me thinks he is doing to be one busy dude!!

Deano1952 on June 20, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Nov. 6th will be a tragically sad day for Humpbot… He will hump himself to death in an ecstasy of humping… ;p

SWalker on June 20, 2012 at 4:34 PM

Hmmm hmmm hmmm…Barack Hussein Obama

Philly on June 20, 2012 at 4:34 PM

I’ve been trying to figure out all day what the “N” stands for.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:30 PM

My vote is “neutered”

NapaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 4:34 PM

In the headline thread we were treated to the theory that Bloomberg’s Obama +13 was probably legitimate due to Obama’s insanely popular illegal alien order.

Comedy gold!

Chuck Schick on June 20, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Waterloosunamimushroomcloud.

Stick a fork in him.

fogw on June 20, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Walker may have actually won by 12 points w/o voter fraud. Has the WI judge now allowed for voter id? If so, comparing Novembers numbers to June’s will be interesting.

txhsmom on June 20, 2012 at 4:36 PM

My vote is “neutered”

NapaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 4:34 PM

I’ve voting for Narcissistic…

SWalker on June 20, 2012 at 4:36 PM

The Bloomberg isn’t supposed to make anybody believe that Obama is up by 13. It is meant to shift the aggregators. RCP will now have a two point bias for Zero through at least the rest of June. And so continues the latest trend in polling, expanding on a national level what PPP has pioneered on the state level.

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Yep. It was down to .2 this morning. Now it’s back up over two+ with this bogus poll.

kevinkristy on June 20, 2012 at 4:30 PM

You would think the aggregators like RCP would have a mechanism to toss out the outliers.

Corporal Tunnel on June 20, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Show me an eight- or nine-point Obama lead and, yeah, I’ll do a little pants-wetting over that

Dude, never let em see you sweat…er…wet your pants.

msupertas on June 20, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Nov. 6th will be a tragically sad day for Humpbot… He will hump himself to death in an ecstasy of humping… ;p

SWalker on June 20, 2012 at 4:34 PM

No better way to go out.

msupertas on June 20, 2012 at 4:39 PM

That deserves a George Takei “Oh My!”.

BHO Jonestown on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan seem like the best bets. Nevada may be tough, and New Hampshire isn’t looking that doable right now.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:28 PM

NH will be more likely to fall for Romney than any of those, except maybe Iowa. That state was Tea Party’d from the bottom up. Romney’s grassroots GOTV organization there is potentially the most underestimated thing nationwide.

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM

I think he’s going down. But, I thought he was going down last time. Go figure. He IS one scary looking guy. Bad intentions.

TXMomof3 on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM

BTW Allah, his lips in that picture are more purple than a punchbowl at an Oakland house party.

NapaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Obama won’t be on the dais in Charlotte.

tom daschle concerned on June 20, 2012 at 4:43 PM

It just occurred to me that the prominence of Sen. Grassley in the soon-to-be high-profile Fast and Furious investigation might hurt Obama in Iowa this November. Fringe benefit, I guess.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:43 PM

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Agree with your entire post except I think NH will be an easy win for Romney by the time November rolls around.

Missy on June 20, 2012 at 4:46 PM

That deserves a George Takei “Oh My!”.

BHO Jonestown on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Short version

Long version

22044 on June 20, 2012 at 4:46 PM

Again, another bad week for Obama: pre contempt charge on Holder, many Democratic governors and those in Congress not planning on attending the Democratic convention, Romney gaining in the polls, Dems in panic mode.

Amazingoly on June 20, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM
Missy on June 20, 2012 at 4:46 PM

There hasn’t really been much polling activity in NH lately. I guess we’ll see. Hopefully you’re both right.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan seem like the best bets. Nevada may be tough, and New Hampshire isn’t looking that doable right now.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:28 PM

Nevada looks pretty bad for Romney, I was v. hopeful at some point, bur with 0′s recent hispandering, looks more and more like a remote possibility/v. long shot…..Iowa and Virginia definitely within reach, wisconsin and michigan – there’s clearly a window of opportunity there, even the fact that they are in play it’s great news, if we take one of them, it would be a great achievement…..You may be underestimaring mitt’s chances in NH….CO – I wouldn’t keep my hopes too high there….

jimver on June 20, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I posted this in the headline thread about what is going on in Michigan:

Do any of you peeps who are arguing about these polls actually LIVE in Michigan?

Let me tell you what is going on here. First of all, the state went VERY RED in 2010. Our state Senate is 68% GOP and the House is around 55% GOP. Our governor is GOP and it wasn’t that close of a race. They have fixed the budget there, forced public union employees to pay more toward their benefits and retirement and even have current retirees paying more for their health care (my mom is a retired teacher and now has a $1000 deductible for the first time in 2011 before her health care benefits kicked in and she has been retired for 25 years). The state successfully got away from the union owned pharmacy for the Rx benefits.

Michigan private union jobs have VANISHED over the past 30 years. The older retired auto workers are either dead or retired out of state. Our state lost a congressional seat in the 2010 census. It was a DEM seat that the state legislature eliminated and they are also forcing 2 high seniority congressional dems to run against each other in our August primary.

Michigan has a lot of Reagan democrat type of voters in this state. These Reagan democrat voters have been pummeled in this Obama economy. They see Obama’s racial pandering for what it is and they don’t like it.

Michigan is at least 25% Catholic. A good share of them are also the Reagan democrats.

Detroit is down to just 715,000 people. The city used to have 2 million people back when they had working middle class people living there in the 50s and 60s. Now it is just a devastated hell hole.

The people who just routinely by the right of birth who voted for Democrats just do not have the numbers now that they have had in the past. Those demographic voters are not the majority of the people anymore.

The unions do not run this state anymore. Their power is zilch.

The auto bailout soundbites that the dems have obviously poll tested does not over take the reality that the economy really sucks here. And while Obama handed over Chrysler and GMC to the UAW, the rest of the people in MI saw that move for what it was. Obama was only interested in saving the union jobs at the cost of 20+ billion taxpayer dollars.

But what also happened at the same time, is that each and every municipality had several privately owned dealerships forcefully closed by the Obama car czar and hundreds and thousands of jobs were lost in each county from that move. These dealerships are still closed and shuttered, reminding people every day when they drive by, of all of the jobs lost.

Also, in the auto bailout, Michigan had a LOT of auto facilities that also were closed. In my area alone, at least 10,000 jobs were lost.

So there is no lingering love for the auto bailout here and I do not know why the state Dem Chair kept spouting those talking points as he was interviewed on the local news as he trailed the Romney bus around the state. They must have only used a focus group in the Detroit area.

So, long winded, but is Michigan in play? You bet your sweet a$$ it is. These reagan democrats are going to come out in force and vote AGAINST Obama. Whether they are voting FOR Romney is a whole other story. And if they can’t bring themselves to vote for Romney, they are NOT going to get off their easy chair and vote for the dem ticket this fall.

Not only does MI have a good shot at turning red for Romney this fall, we have a good shot at unseating Stabenow in the Senate. There are at least 3 really solid candidates in the GOP primary and either would be a far better Senator than Stabenow who has just been a Harry Reid shill since day one in the Senate.

And, finally, in the redistricting, the state legislature created much more friendly GOP districts, so the 3 or 4 districts that were consistent swing districts in the past for Congress are much more red now, and I expect those seats to not flip again any time soon.

With MI turning pink from purple, and WI definitely in play, IN solid red, I don’t see where OH won’t also be red.

karenhasfreedom on June 20, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Most of us have been wondering how the polling can even be close considering the unmitigated disaster that is Teh One. Center lefty Don Campbell also wonders:

What doesn’t compute for me is how this could be a close election. But I have a scary theory: While some independents, who are growing in numbers and will decide this thing, understand instinctively what’s at stake, not nearly enough do — or care.

I think he’s on the money.

(h/t Medved)

Kataklysmic on June 20, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Michigan seem like the best bets. Nevada may be tough, and New Hampshire isn’t looking that doable right now.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:28 PM

NH will be more likely to fall for Romney than any of those, except maybe Iowa. That state was Tea Party’d from the bottom up. Romney’s grassroots GOTV organization there is potentially the most underestimated thing nationwide.

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Any recent polls crom OH? I saw some arrogant posturing from some Dems operatiives on the ground, not sure if it was an article on Politico, or it was on MSNDC, but the Dem question was saying that they are very confident about Ohio and fhat Mitt can’t compete with their organization on the ground there…I was pretty bummed…but then again, not sure how much of it was posturing…

jimver on June 20, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:40 PM
Missy on June 20, 2012 at 4:46 PM

There hasn’t really been much polling activity in NH lately. I guess we’ll see. Hopefully you’re both right.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:50 PM

NM has been quiet, too. I see it as out of reach for Romney but he may have made inroads on Obama’s lead. OH was very quiet for a long time until a burst of polls showed Romney competitive.

Missy on June 20, 2012 at 4:58 PM

…except for me…most of the smart ones from my state…post here.

KOOLAID2 on June 20, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Do I kount as one of the smert ones who post here from Michigen?

Varchild on June 20, 2012 at 5:06 PM

Strange that Romney would be having a tougher time in Wisconsin, where the GOP just had its biggest victory since the 2010 midterms, while O would be having a tougher time in Michigan, which was supposed to be irreversibly blue after the auto bailout.

Weird.

AshleyTKing on June 20, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Congrats to The Mighty Mac State!

Bmore on June 20, 2012 at 5:13 PM

BTW Allah, his lips in that picture are more purple than a punchbowl at an Oakland house party.

NapaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 4:42 PM

Allah playing with photoshop again? Good!

Bmore on June 20, 2012 at 5:14 PM

BTW Allah, his lips in that picture are more purple than a punchbowl at an Oakland house party.

NapaConservative on June 20, 2012 at 4:42 PM

And that mole freaks me right out. Every time.

hoosiermama on June 20, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Strange that Romney would be having a tougher time in Wisconsin, where the GOP just had its biggest victory since the 2010 midterms, while O would be having a tougher time in Michigan, which was supposed to be irreversibly blue after the auto bailout.

Maybe the Romney home state advantage isn’t as small as some think.

I’d like to see the same polling outfit poll both states, for comparison’s sake.

Missy on June 20, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Walker may have actually won by 12 points w/o voter fraud. Has the WI judge now allowed for voter id? If so, comparing Novembers numbers to June’s will be interesting.

txhsmom on June 20, 2012 at 4:36 PM

Yep. In Wisconsin we won by a margin greater than that of the democratic vote stealing: Sheriff Investigating Voter Fraud In Wisconsin Recall

“According to a source familiar with the allegations who wishes to remain anonymous, multiple voter registration forms were discovered, including mostly-blank forms that had been pre-certified by an election official.”

slickwillie2001 on June 20, 2012 at 5:27 PM

But some ABR dude, right here at H/A, last night told me that Mitt couldn’t possibly compete in MI. This poll must be a mistake.

MJBrutus on June 20, 2012 at 5:42 PM

“I thought about blogging the dumb new Bloomberg poll showing Obama leading Romney by a million gazillion points nationally but even I’m not enough of an eeyore to take it seriously.”

Seriously, how stupid do you have to be to believe ANYTHING from the organization of psycho nanny, Choom Gang supporter and official NYC soda-jerk bloomberg ?

TeaPartyNation on June 20, 2012 at 5:53 PM

I’ve been trying to figure out all day what the “N” stands for.

steebo77 on June 20, 2012 at 4:30 PM

..hope it’s not the same “N” in HNIC.

The War Planner on June 20, 2012 at 6:02 PM

But some ABR dude, right here at H/A, last night told me that Mitt couldn’t possibly compete in MI. This poll must be a mistake.

MJBrutus on June 20, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Those of us where were/are anti Romney in the primary and we live in MI have so far been impressed with his execution since he has locked up his delegate votes. I have moved from nausea at the thought of him winning the nomination to wanting him to kick Obama’s a$$ far and wide back to Chicago. Romney performed here very well over the weekend and on Monday and Tuesday. And he has avoided stepping on Obama’s head fake phoney, illegal amnesty pandering land mine.

Again, I am finding myself impressed.

karenhasfreedom on June 20, 2012 at 6:16 PM

I’ve said this before…and will continue to say it until I’m proven true on Election Day…

The 2012 presidential election will be decided in the Rust Belt.

The Obama campaign has declared a “War on the White Working-Class Voter”. These are blue-collar, largely Catholic, naturally conservative and economically-damaged folks. They correctly see the Obama administration as focused on special interests and policies in opposition to their beliefs and needs.

These voters, formerly called “Reagan Democrats” and potential “Romney Democrats”, comprise a large percentage of votes in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois and Wisconsin.

Illinois is a lost cause for Romney and he knows it. Obama may only win a handful of Illinois’ 102 counties. But, those counties house the bulk of the state’s voting population (living and dead). The victory margin will be lower than in 2008 though due to loses among this demographic.

The other states all share commonalities (besides “Obama Fatigue”) that bode well for Romney.

Each of the other states went red in a big way in 2010. They have GOP Governors and those administrations have reined in spending, reduced deficits, and lowered or frozen taxes. They have been micro-versions of what a Romney administration in Washington DC could accomplish. And, the overall results have been good for these future Romney Democrats. Nothing succeeds like success.

Indiana is the only sure-bet right now. But, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin are all winnable for Romney. Obama must have Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to reach 270 this time. If Obama loses any one of them, his “one-term proposition” will become reality.

If the election were held today, I believe Romney would win OH, MI and WI. PA would be very close.

LaserBeam on June 20, 2012 at 6:27 PM

The Bloomberg isn’t supposed to make anybody believe that Obama is up by 13. It is meant to shift the aggregators. RCP will now have a two point bias for Zero through at least the rest of June. And so continues the latest trend in polling, expanding on a national level what PPP has pioneered on the state level.

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I was thinking that myself. When RCP got down to an average under 1%, I was waiting to see if the MSM would report it when Romney moved ahead. Bloomberg conveniently moved the dial at just the right moment HMMM! Coincidence? How many job seeking “volunteers” and contributors still think they better stick with the one because he leads in the polls and they do not want to irritate the winner? How many Moonbats are kept from being demoralized by fraudulent polling from partisan outfits? Nate Silver still has Obama up big in % likelihood of winning based on poles that I bet he questions himself; but at least he has the excuse that his New York Times employer might dump on him if he started saying Romney is becoming the favorite.

KW64 on June 20, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Many polls showed the Walker recall was “too close to call”. Didn’t end up that way, huh.

I don’t pay attention to RCP’s poll average for the reason mentioned above. Calculating the average of several poorly-conducted or just-plain-biased polls still produces inaccurate conclusions.

They’re good for showing trends…possibly.

LaserBeam on June 20, 2012 at 8:00 PM

KW64 on June 20, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Yeah, and I actually sort of respect Silver himself. In theory and during other cycle, he has done a lot of good work playing with numbers and producing unbiased statistical likelihoods as a result. Problem now is, now that this method of aggregating polls is thoroughly established, the pollsters are skewing for the aggregators. As a result, Silver’s numbers are themselves destined to be crap this year, whatever his intentions. It’s simply garbage in, garbage out.

Of course his liberal self shines through as he continues to look down on Rasmussen’s “bias” without saying boo about a PPP organization that has only become more laughable since being affiliated with Daily Kos, and whose founder routinely goes on Twitter cheerleading for Democrats.

And of course it’s a worthwhile gain for pollsters to do this crap too. Release one twelve point outlier, and it used to be laughed out of the news cycle in 24 hours. Now it remains an influence for two or three weeks until it’s cycled through the RCP average.

You would think the aggregators like RCP would have a mechanism to toss out the outliers.

Corporal Tunnel on June 20, 2012 at 4:37 PM

Only problem is where does one draw the line? In this case it’s obvious the poll is junk but a system requires a predetermined standard. I expect eventually one aggregator will eventually do so as this gets more ridiculous. And then another will toss outliers with a different standard. Eventually there will be conservative aggregators ignoring PPP and Bloomberg and liberal aggregators ignoring Rasmussen and S-USA and WAA and anybody else they just don’t like…

Gingotts on June 20, 2012 at 8:02 PM


So is Michigan in play? You bet your sweet a$$ it is. These reagan democrats are going to come out in force and vote AGAINST Obama.

karenhasfreedom on June 20, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Great analysis! Keep up the good work.

anotherJoe on June 20, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Pic of the Day: Welcome To TFGP’s Hotel Obamaland

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/pic-of-day-welcome-to-tfgps-hotel.html

M2RB: The Eagles

Resist We Much on June 20, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Landslides always start with a little crack, and before you know it the whole hillside caves in. The July 6 job numbers could cause more erosion from the few Democrats left (a la Artur Davis) who understand markets and capitalism. Anyone who doesn’t think Bill Clinton was creating a sliver of daylight with his “sterling” remarks on the Bain diversion is fooling themselves. If we actually lose jobs, which is a distinct possibility based on recent trends, it could be ballgame for this administration. I really think some honest Democrats want their party back and will begin to peel off in droves if July 6 is as bad as it could be.

Obama’s last two moves – immigration non-enforcement by decree and invoking executive privilege on Fast & Furious – smack of lame-duckishness.

http://www.fiscalwars.wordpress.com

stout77 on June 20, 2012 at 8:59 PM

karenhasfreedom on June 20, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Karen, I live on the opposite side of the state from you and agree completely. I have one thing to add – Michiganders can easily compare Granmole with Snyder, who seems very similar to Romney (I hope) and two-penny Jenny doesn’t measure up.

8 weight on June 20, 2012 at 9:30 PM

karenhasfreedom on June 20, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Fascinating read – thanks for that!

kim roy on June 20, 2012 at 9:31 PM

LaserBeam on June 20, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Also good analysis!

anotherJoe on June 20, 2012 at 10:27 PM

I’m a Michigander.

I’ve been saying Rmoney could win MI for several months, now.

It has absolutely nothing to do with his father, an ex-governor. It has everything to do with the mindset of the majority of Michiganders–minimum governement.

RedCrow on June 20, 2012 at 10:43 PM

12% are still undecided after living through the last 4yrs? If they haven’t abandoned Obama by now they never will. They will run back to him, all they are only looking for now is a way to rationalize doing so. Forget it Romney, it isn’t worth your money, don’t be fooled. Spend your money in Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin, Virgina, and Colorado. Concentrate on winning all of those states and even if you lose Virgina, you will still be known as Mr. President.

Dollayo on June 20, 2012 at 11:12 PM

The sad fact is that we are going to have to endure countless polls before now and the election in November. And, the poll taken on the first Tuesday of November is the only one that counts. Thankfully, South Carolina is not a swing state and I won’t have to endure all the ads and phone calls the swing states voters will have to endure. I’ve already had to endure it all ………. during South Carolina’s contentious, feisty Republican primary battle, which Newt won. I voted for Romney.

SC.Charlie on June 21, 2012 at 5:42 AM

A new poll out today has the Michigan race statistically tied at Obama 47, Romney 46.

steebo77 on June 21, 2012 at 10:20 AM