As Ed recounted this morning, the 25 seats the Democrats would need to win to retake control of the House this November seems like a mighty steep climb by most counts. Their political images largely rely on the success of their incumbent president, and seeing as how President Obama’s numbers aren’t looking too secure right now, Democrats definitely have cause for concern. However, while Romney out-fundraised President Obama in the month of May, the House Democrats campaign committee actually picked up more cash than their Republican counterparts in the same month, according to finance reports released today.
Democrats vying to reclaim the speaker’s gavel have raised about $10 million more than the Republicans this cycle, but Republicans have $6.5 million more in cash on hand.
In May, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee brought in $6.7 million, while the National Republican Campaign Committee hauled in $6 million. In April, the NRCC outraised the DCCC by about $400,000. Democrats have raised $96.8 million in this cycle vs. Republicans’ $86.6 million. But by the end of May, the NRCC had $33.5 million in cash compared to the DCCC’s $27.5 million. Both committees are debt free.
Iiiinteresting. For smart and thorough analyses of the Congressional state of play, I like to refer to Larry Sabato’s crystal ball (full disclosure: Yes, I am a UVa grad, I’m biased!), and their most recent forecast concluded that Democrats’ chances are still decidedly grim, even after Arizona’s special election and upcoming redistricting.
Moving AZ-2 to the leans column leaves only 14 toss-ups among the 435 seats being contested in the fall. In total, the Crystal Ball rates 235 seats safe, likely or leaning for the Republicans, and rates 186 safe, likely or leaning for the Democrats. Split the toss-ups seven to seven, and one is left with 242 Republicans and 193 Democrats in the House: exactly the margin Republicans had to start this Congress.
Needless to say, there is no indication at this point that the Democrats can net the 25 seats that would give them a House majority; in fact, if Mitt Romney wins the presidency, Republicans could actually add seats to their already substantial caucus.