Dem hopes for Speaker Pelosi sadly fading

posted at 12:41 pm on June 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

So says The Hill, which reads the tea leaves and oddly discerns no sweeping Democratic mandate developing thus far in the election season.  Democrats would need a near-historic set of coattails from Barack Obama in order to pull off the 25-seat net victory to regain control of the House, but Obama can’t even get to 50% approval for himself, let alone the rest of his party:

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has given her party a better than 50-50 chance of wresting control of the lower chamber — but missed opportunities in specific races and increasing economic worries have put that prediction in doubt.

“The environment certainly isn’t as good as it was six months ago for Democrats,” a senior Democratic strategist who works on House races told The Hill, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to comment candidly.

“Democrats are way off track of where they need to be to regain the majority,” said David Wasserman, the House race editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

The Hill projects that Democrats will gain between 10-15 seats, but it’s not clear why or where.  One of their rationales is that Democrats have a slight edge in some polls on the generic Congressional ballot, but Republicans only need to be close to gain seats, historically speaking.  Democrats need significant margins in those polls to switch seats — and they are still defending a few formerly-Republican seats they picked up in 2006 that will still be vulnerable in the second Tea Party election.

Rasmussen’s latest generic Congressional ballot shows Republicans with a significant lead among likely voters — and a consistent one:

Republicans lead Democrats by seven points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 17.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. Republicans led by six points the week before, 45% to 39%, and seven points 44% to 37%, the week before that.

Republicans have consistently held a modest advantage over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot since June 2009. During 2012, support for Democrats on the generic ballot has ranged from 36% to 41%. Republicans have stayed between 40% and 46% in that same time period.

The same 7-day tracking poll shows Mitt Romney up by four over Barack Obama, so the coattails issue applies more at the moment to the GOP than Democrats.  The GOP leads among men by a wide margin, 51/33, while only trailing by four among women, 39/43, on the generic Congressional ballot.  Independents have not yet made up their minds, but lean towards the GOP 37/29, with 25% undecided.  Democrats get 50% of the youth vote but lose every other age demo.

Remember, too, that Rasmussen’s tracking poll at the end of October 2010 gave Republicans a ten-point lead on the generic Congressional ballot, 49/39.  The next week, Republicans netted 63 seats in the House.  Four months earlier, at about the same time in the cycle as now, the split was 44/36, almost identical to where it is today.

Plenty could change between now and the election, of course, in either direction.  Right now, though, Democrats have to be wondering whether they might be more competitive if they’d replaced their failed leadership after the 2010 midterm debacle, and hadn’t made Nancy Pelosi the poster woman for a Democratic majority.

Update: Republicans netted 63 seats, not 68.  Thanks to Damian G for the correction, which I’ve made above.


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O/T

Please do not run pictures of Henry Waxman and Nancy Pelosi in consecutive stories right after lunch.

The HA community thanks you.

Bruno Strozek on June 19, 2012 at 3:13 PM

O/T

Please do not run pictures of Henry Waxman and Nancy Pelosi in consecutive stories right after lunch.

The HA community thanks you.

Bruno Strozek on June 19, 2012 at 3:13 PM

Or at least not where where you’re looking up the nose of Nostralitus.

itsspideyman on June 19, 2012 at 3:29 PM

72 year old Nancy Pelosi got 74.78% of the vote in San Francisco’s Top Two Open Primary.

http://www.sfelections.org/results/20120605/

So the chances of voting Nancy Pelosi out of office in November are exceedingly small.

The best way to encourage Nancy Pelosi to retire is to make it very clear that she will never be Speaker of the House again by electing an even larger Republican Majority to the House of Representatives.

We need to fight hard to help Republicans/Conservatives win as many seats as possible.

One easy way to help is by helping to spread the word about good candidates on the web.

Whenever you see a Democrat Incumbent/Candidate doing something stupid, please let us know who the better candidate is.

And if you can provide a link to the Republican/Conservative Candidate’s campaign website, that would help us all to learn more about these candidates.

The November election is rapidly approaching, so the sooner we learn about our preferred candidates, the better.

wren on June 19, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Fisting fisters fist while fisting fists fister…!!!

(look at that picture of Nancy again)

:)

Seven Percent Solution on June 19, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Note to the libtards…

When you’ve lost Rosanne Barr, you’ve lost the nation.

WestTexasBirdDog on June 19, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Yikes!

That picture of Nan is almost enough to make me prefer the company of men (IYKWIMAITYD – not that there’s anything wrong with it).

Almost.

brushman on June 19, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Allow me.

:-)

Mary in LA on June 19, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Man, just poor some water on her and let the monkeys loose. Someone find out where Dorothy went.

Silvergoat on June 19, 2012 at 5:09 PM

You mean speaker pelosi’s tenure wasn’t our high water mark as a nation?

acyl72 on June 19, 2012 at 12:51 PM

Well, it did leave marks.

Happy Nomad on June 19, 2012 at 1:01 PM

Yeah, SKID marks! (AKA poop stains)

Sasha List on June 19, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Obama doesn’t have coattails, he has footprints – big honkin’ ones like in Jurassic Park – and his fellow Dems are falling into those gigantic depressions.

disa on June 19, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Get the face and front done one more time. She’s got a couple of terms left. She and San Fran…laughing stocks.

StevC on June 19, 2012 at 7:11 PM

House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has given her party a better than 50-50 chance of wresting control of the lower chamber

Unless this paragraph was written in 2006, this is just typical wishcasting by The Hill. Astroturf oddsmaking.

fitzfong on June 19, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Obama doesn’t have coattails, he has footprints – big honkin’ ones like in Jurassic Park – and his fellow Dems are falling into those gigantic depressions.

disa on June 19, 2012 at 6:36 PM

Your comment reminded me of a political cartoon… slightly different, but related concept:

http://www.artwanted.com/imageview.cfm?id=1009321

ITguy on June 19, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Surely we weren’t the only Congressional district in 2010 where the popular bumper sticker was “FIRE PELOSI?”

Nancy Pelosi is the reason that Gene Taylor is no longer in Congress. Voters liked him okay, but were not about to vote for someone who would vote for Pelosi as Speaker.

tom on June 19, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Nancy Pelosi shall enjoy the opportunity of a Spherical Gathering of Sublimated Water Vapor maintaining itself in the Punishment Region of the Afterlife, to become Speaker ever again.!

jaydee_007 on June 20, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Comment pages: 1 2