Bloomberg poll: 64% agree with new immigration policy

posted at 10:01 am on June 19, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Will Barack Obama get a bump from taking executive action on immigration policy?  A new poll from Bloomberg doesn’t directly inform on that point, but the change itself gets nearly two-thirds support among likely voters polled.  That, however, comes with a couple of huge caveats:

President Barack Obama is winning the opening round in the battle over immigration, according to a Bloomberg poll released today, putting Republicans on the defensive with his decision to end the deportations of some illegal immigrants brought to the U.S. as children[.]

Sixty-four percent of likely voters surveyed after Obama’s June 15 announcement said they agreed with the policy, while 30 percent said they disagreed. Independents backed the decision by better than a two-to-one margin.

First, the sample document from Bloomberg is conspicuously bare.  Not only does it not include any partisan affiliation data (even though Bloomberg promotes the findings among independents), it doesn’t have any demographic data at all.  It doesn’t list what other questions were asked, the order in which they were asked, nor does it speak to any bump in approval for Obama coming from the change in policy.  As a polling document, it’s useless.

Furthermore, we have other consistent data to check.  For instance, Gallup’s tracking polls would have already shown a significant bump in the rolling averages if this issue really moves the needle as Team Obama hopes.  As of this morning, Obama’s approval in the three-day cycle that included Friday and the two days following the announcement sits at 46/47.  The addition of Sunday’s data added a point to his approval and deducted two from his disapproval, which means Obama got some small bump over the weekend … but hardly a game-changer.  The seven-day rolling average on the head-to-head race went from Romney up over Obama 46/45 to a 46/46 tie.

At Rasmussen, there was even less impact.  The daily tracking poll on head-to-head matchup showed no change at all yesterday after a weekend where the policy change dominated, with Romney still up 47/44 over Obama.  Obama’s approval rating also stayed the same at 46/53 from the day before, which was a drop from Friday’s results of 48/51.  Even the SEIU/Daily Kos poll on the election only shows a small bump upward for Obama among the very Hispanic voters this courted, going from 52/32 to 61/32, a move of only nine points … in June … for the one big gimme Obama can produce for this voting bloc.

The effects of this move will be minimal and short term, I argue in my column for The Week today, mainly because immigration isn’t a big issue with most voters, and this change has only a temporary impact. They fired this gun far too early:

If the next jobs report comes back looking weak, the question of adding so many new workers to the mix will begin to get asked by more and more people. That will trump any benefit Obama gets from the rule change, because people are far more interested in jobs and the economy than in immigration reform. This change only provides Obama with a short-term boost and a short-term distraction from the main focus on this election — and it comes about four months too early to help.

Why not wait for October? By then, Rubio’s efforts might have eclipsed Obama’s opportunity. But then again, given Republican skepticism about approaching normalization policy ahead of border security, the risk seems rather low. Romney adviser John Sununu argued in The Boston Globe that the White House is on the verge of panic over its inability to deal with the economy and Romney, and that panic has now begun to drive Obama’s policy decisions. In this case, it not only drove the decision but also the timing, and stripped Obama of yet another potential game-changer down the stretch of the general election. By October, the economy will have buried this moment along with Obama’s gay-marriage evolution to ancient and only slightly curious factoids of political history.

Charles Krauthammer is correct to praise Romney for bypassing the fight over the immigration policy change:

“This is essentially a punt and I think Romney is wise to do it,” Krauthammer said. “First of all, this isn’t a presidential issue — it’s a congressional issue. This is an almost unprecedented grab of power by the executive from the Congress by essentially saying it’s not going to enforce a law. And I think it’s the Congress that ought to protest, and ought to be offended at the least — including Democrats in Congress — over appropriation of their power by the executive.”

But he also said the battle is a no-win scenario for Romney because it shifts the discussion, and had Romney attempted to take it on in his “Face the Nation” interview on Sunday, it might have backfired.

“But as to the politics of this, for Romney it’s a losing proposition to get in a fight,” Krauthammer said. “There is a clever trap by Obama. It’s a way to lure, first of all, Romney away from talking about the main issue — economics. Any day that Romney is talking about anything other than economics is a day Obama wins.”

As the polls show, the economy is what moves the needle with voters.  The immigration change is just the latest attempt at a distraction, and it’s already falling flat.


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Yeah, I don’t trust that Bloomberg Poll, controversial topics usually don’t poll anywhere near that lopsidedly, unless there’s something wrong with the poll itself.

Kinda irrelevant though, if you ask me this whole affair has been irreverent. It’s just more gimmick politics, designed more for optics rather than doing anything meaningful. It’s already largely faded as a news story, and if the White House thinks moves like these are going to win them a second term they’re sorely mistaken.

WolvenOne on June 19, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Remember, Annie C has the Gallup data that increasing “illegal” immigration is a loser, so this alleged poll is complete BS

Fixed that for you. When democrats talk about “immigration”, they mean illegal immigration.

Alabama Infidel on June 19, 2012 at 1:11 PM

I just don’t buy that this is a popular policy with an 8%+ unemployment rate that’s increasing, especially in swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc where jobs are scarce. And the polls have shown no bounce for Obama on this issue.

I do think, however, Romney was shrewd not to try and jump in head first on this issue.

BradTank on June 19, 2012 at 1:13 PM

I just don’t buy that this is a popular policy with an 8%+ unemployment rate that’s increasing, especially in swing states like Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, etc where jobs are scarce. And the polls have shown no bounce for Obama on this issue.

Polls, meh. Pick your survey target, phrase the questions to channel the results you want. That, and just make up the numbers if it doesn’t mesh with your agenda.

hawkeye54 on June 19, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Can these kids become anchor “babies” for the whole family to stay?

I already know.

And this act is illegal. He swore to enforce the laws..(Credit to the TV show THE FACTOR.

IlikedAUH2O on June 19, 2012 at 1:22 PM

IF this poll is true………..then………we’ve lost the country.

This is what happens when you control the narrative and the electorate is lazy.

PappyD61 on June 19, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Obama’s ploy was unconstitutional and will not stand. Won’t thrusting some 800,000 more workers into the system, increase the unemployment numbers to 12 or 13%? Business will hire LEGAL unemployed Americans first as they should.

Amazingoly on June 19, 2012 at 1:26 PM

I think this is premature.

We need to wait to see what’s in it.

If you read Daily Caller’s piece, you will be flabbergasted, as will most Americans. It is not what the libs portray it to be.

This will go the way of Obamacare – once the truth be told.

so-notbuyingit on June 19, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Someone please add the linky from newsbusters where the msdnc anchor is defending this poll and the gop talking head is throwing cold water on it……highlarious

Cant send linky at this time

cmsinaz on June 19, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Bloomberg + Obama: Desperately seeking statistics….

…and perpetually surprised that their bovine excrement still stinks!!

landlines on June 19, 2012 at 1:30 PM

Can these kids become anchor “babies” for the whole family to stay?

I already know.

And this act is illegal. He swore to enforce the laws..

He does enforce the laws that he wants to enforce. And they are his laws to enforce or not, after all, as he is our ultimate law giver and enforcer.

hawkeye54 on June 19, 2012 at 1:31 PM

Taxpayers and legal U.S. citizens are now second rate/tier in their own land.

If they don’t pay taxes they go to jail.

If the others don’t they get to be special via Obama.

If you don’t pay your utility bills, your assets get taken away.

If they don’t they get helped by Obama.

The list goes on.

The U.S. now has two tiers of laws, depending which group you’re in, the legal/producer type or the illegal/moocher one.

Moching can be in the form of mooching the money or the laws. This is the most divisive president in all the history.

Schadenfreude on June 19, 2012 at 1:45 PM

How come this poll matters and the utter opposition to ObamaCare doesn’t?

———–
Plus, legal immigration from Asia is over the illegal Hispanic type, for the first time.

Time to kiss a different pool of azzes, Obama.

Schadenfreude on June 19, 2012 at 1:51 PM

As the polls show, the economy is what moves the needle with voters. The immigration change is just the latest attempt at a distraction, and it’s already falling flat.

Immigration is directly related to the economy and jobs. Why Republicans don’t want to take this common sense approach boggles the mind. Is it logical to bring in millions of people to compete with Americans for jobs that do not exist? Are Republicans so impotent that they can’t criticize Obama for giving out up to 1.4 million work permits? Immigration will decide the fate of America and the Republican party. When will the establishment recognize that their love for cheap labor will be their party’s eventual undoing?

Jerry Bear on June 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

Caution on the Rasmussen interpolation. His results are usually a 3-day rolling composite. So they are slower to show fluctuations and tend to temper them somewhat.

rayra on June 19, 2012 at 2:27 PM

Is anyone else getting the obnoxious toyota ad on this site?

PLEASE get rid of it.

stenwin77 on June 19, 2012 at 2:49 PM

The Republicans could win a few points by pointing out that Obama’s amnesty includes more than just illegals brought here as children, but also those teenagers who arrived alone and stayed for five years (with allowable six-month visits every year back to their home country).

Obama’s decided since “he won”, he can do anything he wants, and the back of the hand to Congress and actual American citizens.

RebeccaH on June 19, 2012 at 3:02 PM

It might be that people do not entirely disagree with the idea that some allowance should be made for some people…however, that does not mean they agree with the way Obama went about it.

Terrye on June 19, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Immigration is directly related to the economy and jobs. Why Republicans don’t want to take this common sense approach boggles the mind. Is it logical to bring in millions of people to compete with Americans for jobs that do not exist? Are Republicans so impotent that they can’t criticize Obama for giving out up to 1.4 million work permits? Immigration will decide the fate of America and the Republican party. When will the establishment recognize that their love for cheap labor will be their party’s eventual undoing?

Jerry Bear on June 19, 2012 at 2:11 PM

It has nothing to do with impotence…the truth is most people do not see this as strictly an immigration issue,btw, the Republicans in Congress are working on a bill that would block Obama’s rule change.

Terrye on June 19, 2012 at 3:42 PM

First Rasmussen, now Gallup. Their 3-day rolling average, June 16-19, had Barack’s disapproval up a point, to 48-45, and Romney leading him 46-45. Looks like the bounce really is going to Romney. Voters know a crass political desperation move when they see one. Romney played this just right.

Rational Thought on June 19, 2012 at 4:01 PM

It has nothing to do with impotence…the truth is most people do not see this as strictly an immigration issue,btw, the Republicans in Congress are working on a bill that would block Obama’s rule change.

Terrye on June 19, 2012 at 3:42 PM

A bill won’t go anywhere with the Democrat senate in the way and Obama’s veto. The Republican leadership needs to denounce Obama’s actions publicly and Romney is blowing a excellent chance to distinguish himself from Obama.

Jerry Bear on June 19, 2012 at 4:08 PM

I say we tax that 64% at 90% in order to pay for the health and education issues of these ILLEGAL immigrants!?!

Colatteral Damage on June 19, 2012 at 4:38 PM

the Republicans in Congress are working on a bill that would block Obama’s rule change.

Terrye on June 19, 2012 at 3:42 PM

There are several on the table now…they will gather dust.

Schadenfreude on June 19, 2012 at 4:39 PM

as flat as mittens….NOMITTNOBAMA 2012!

Pragmatic on June 19, 2012 at 4:59 PM

A bill won’t go anywhere with the Democrat senate in the way and Obama’s veto. The Republican leadership needs to denounce Obama’s actions publicly and Romney is blowing a excellent chance to distinguish himself from Obama.

Jerry Bear on June 19, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Well come on..on one hand you say the Congress is wasting its time because the Democrats won’t let it go anywhere, but then you say Romney is blowing a chance to distinguish himself..well he can not stop Obama either.

I would think that when Romney said he did not support this move and considered it political he was distinguishing himself. I disagree with the idea that he is supposed to walk into a trap. That is what you seem to want him to do.

Terrye on June 19, 2012 at 5:47 PM

There are several on the table now…they will gather dust.

Schadenfreude on June 19, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Probably so, but is not fair to yell at Romney for not going all hard line on this and then Congress a pass. After all, it is their toes Obama is stepping on here.

Terrye on June 19, 2012 at 5:49 PM

No polling internals?

John Zogby once admitted in an interview that he concentrated his “polling” during the weekends for certain clients who wanted the results to favor Democrats.

Which is why this went down on a Friday.

Del Dolemonte on June 19, 2012 at 6:42 PM

Obama’s going to lose Ohio either way, but this move will not kill him in NH, WI, IA MI or PA.

libfreeordie on June 19, 2012 at 10:46 AM

NH resident checking in-don’t count our state for your guy just yet. There are plenty of illegal immigrants here, in fact NH has the highest number of illegals of the 3 northern New England states.

And I’ve no doubt that more than a few real NH residents have lost jobs to the illegals.

Del Dolemonte on June 19, 2012 at 6:48 PM

He wouldn’t have done it otherwise…

Wagthatdog on June 19, 2012 at 7:53 PM

But remember, joana swears it’s 90%. Pay no attention to the loaded Bloomberg poll that implies it’s closer to 50%, and just believe her!
50% sounds just about right for libs + independents who haven’t bothered to think it through.

CapnObvious on June 19, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Liars.

frizzbee on June 19, 2012 at 9:49 PM

I think Charles is correct as it being Congress not doing their job. Congress owns our checkbook and the pen that writes the checks but you would never know that by the way things are reported. It’s hysterical that Congress passes laws about light bulbs and toilets, don’t they have better things to do? Come to think about my last, maybe Congress is correct, the Country is in the toilet and they are begging for bright ideas to save the economy.

mixplix on June 20, 2012 at 7:06 AM

That same poll shows Obama leading Romney by 13:

http://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/rQyA68BW5P20

I’d say it’s an outlier.

Reno_Dave on June 20, 2012 at 10:36 AM

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