Hmm: Romney, 269; Obama, 243?

posted at 6:01 pm on June 14, 2012 by Erika Johnsen

As ever, it’s still just a lot of guesswork with a heck of a lot of variables at this point, but sure — I’ll take it. The Weekly Standard cobbled together Rasmussen’s latest polling on the nine most significant swing states with available data, along with the other 41 states running along the red/blue dichotomy you’d expect in a tight race. With Romney winning Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa; Obama taking Pennsylvania and Nevada; and ties in Virginia and Colorado, the result… ain’t too shabby.

Rasmussen’s latest polling of likely voters in states across the land shows Mitt Romney currently leading President Barack Obama in the quest for electoral votes.  In fact, if the 9 key swing states were each to go according to Rasmussen’s latest polling, and if the 41 other states (plus Washington, D.C.) were each to go as they would be expected to go in a tight race, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and Romney 269 — enough for a tie (and an almost inevitable victory in the House of Representatives, where the 50 state delegations would each cast one vote to determine the president). …

Romney leads by very narrow margins in some of these states, and some of Rasmussen’s statewide polls are more current than others. Still, it’s interesting to see how the candidates stack up in the latest tallies from the only national polling outfit that’s currently screening for likely voters.

Getting a solid foothold in the aforementioned swing states is going to be a challenge — as Gov. Scott Walker said Thursday morning, even his recent victory against union power doesn’t mean his state is anything even approaching a safe bet.

The Badger state’s Republican governor and newly crowned conservative hero on the national scale says he believes it’s possible– but Romney will need more than just a party affiliation.

“He’s got a shot,” Walker told reporters in Washington, D.C., Thursday morning. “He needs a clear plan.”

It’s not enough that both men are Republicans–a simple association with him won’t be enough to win in the state, Walker says. …

A Republican presidential candidate has not won the state of Wisconsin since Reagan in 1984, but Walker noted that the margin of victory has been close in recent years.

“Wisconsin 2000, 2004, was the closest blue state in America,” Walker noted.

There are other data sets out there showing plenty of varying electoral outcomes, but I’m inclined to agree with Rep. Paul Ryan about Mitt Romney’s position right now: The fact that Romney’s already going toe-to-toe with the incumbent’s massive campaign machine should be giving President Obama cause for alarm. And if you want to get really optimistic, check out Henrik Temp (a la Michael Barone)’s theory on the electoral possibilities — if we’re to expect more of the sort of “reframing speech”-duds that Obama proffered today, I’d bet Romney has this one in the bag.


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Oh my.

RedNewEnglander on June 14, 2012 at 6:03 PM

awesome…

OmahaConservative on June 14, 2012 at 6:03 PM

better to be up than down

gerrym51 on June 14, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Yeah baby

cmsinaz on June 14, 2012 at 6:04 PM

Is that a possible outcome of a POTUS election? And if so, what happens when neither candidate gets 270?

Dirt McGirt on June 14, 2012 at 6:05 PM

here trolls….here trolls…..

*waves scooby snacks*….

ted c on June 14, 2012 at 6:06 PM

How about Romney 338 – SCOAMF 200?!

Rixon on June 14, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Oops. Click for the link.

Rixon on June 14, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Is that a possible outcome of a POTUS election? And if so, what happens when neither candidate gets 270?

Dirt McGirt on June 14, 2012 at 6:05 PM

The House decides who is the next president. They pick from the top 3 electoral vote winners.

NotCoach on June 14, 2012 at 6:08 PM

As ever, it’s still just a lot of guesswork with a heck of a lot of variables at this point, but sure — I’ll take it.

Erika Johnsen

.
You’re free to “take it”, and I’m free to say “it’s still too early”.

But the important thing is we’re free . . . . . . . for now.

listens2glenn on June 14, 2012 at 6:08 PM

In fact, if the 9 key swing states were each to go according to Rasmussen’s latest polling, and if the 41 other states (plus Washington, D.C.) were each to go as they would be expected to go in a tight race, Obama would have 243 electoral votes and Romney 269 — enough for a tie

Which means, incumbent polling being what it is, that Romney is well over 300 EVs at the moment.

HitNRun on June 14, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Que sera, sera.

There’s a “but” out there, somewhere.

OldEnglish on June 14, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Hmm: Romney, 269; Obama, 243?

…should there really be a 2 in front of that 43 for President Barrack Balame?

KOOLAID2 on June 14, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Reality check people!!!!

Automatic 45% re-elect # for the DOTUS.

Take NOTHING for granted.

PappyD61 on June 14, 2012 at 6:12 PM

You’re forgetting that Gov. Moonbeam signed a law saying CA gives it’s EV’s to the popular vote winner…which means Bambi could “lose” CA even haha

1984 in real life on June 14, 2012 at 6:13 PM

Erika Johnsen

The anti-Allahpundit.

strictnein on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM

:)

NeoKong on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM

This analysis concedes Michigan to Obama (as it works from Ras which hasn’t yet polled the state apparently)… not exactly a safe bet there, either.

Also the Nevada polling is more than a month old. I doubt Obama still holds an eight point advantage there.

Gingotts on June 14, 2012 at 6:15 PM

I love it that Mitt’s bus was driving around Big O’s speech site today honking its horn.

This is what democracy looks like/

ted c on June 14, 2012 at 6:15 PM

With Romney winning Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa; Obama taking Pennsylvania and Nevada; and ties in Virginia and Colorado, the result… ain’t too shabby.

If Romney wins Wisconsin and Iowa, it’s over. We won’t even need the Mountain Time Zone results to officially come in(never mind the Pacific ones). He’s gonna win Virginia, North Carolina, and Indiana. Those are traditionally red states that temporarily lost their marbles in 2008.

Doughboy on June 14, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Does it make me arrogant that I don’t get excited about this sort of stuff anymore?

GOPRanknFile on June 14, 2012 at 6:16 PM

Reality check people!!!!

Automatic 45% re-elect # for the DOTUS.

Take NOTHING for granted.

PappyD61 on June 14, 2012 at 6:12 PM

45% huh? So then all he needs is to get a third-party candidate to appear late and take 11% entirely from Romney. Because 45% doesn’t cut it in a two-horse race.

Gingotts on June 14, 2012 at 6:17 PM

You’re forgetting that Gov. Moonbeam signed a law saying CA gives it’s EV’s to the popular vote winner…which means Bambi could “lose” CA even haha

1984 in real life on June 14, 2012 at 6:13 PM

That’s contingent on enough other states passing similar laws.

theperfecteconomist on June 14, 2012 at 6:18 PM

The Obama campaign is nothing more than disappointment and a place to buy trinkets for liberals.

Lovin’ it. :-)

Punchenko on June 14, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Is that a possible outcome of a POTUS election?
Dirt McGirt on June 14, 2012 at 6:05 PM

Only if there’s 3rd party candidates getting the remaining votes.

And if so, what happens when neither candidate gets 270?

If none of the candidates reaches 270 votes in the electoral college, the House decides the election, with each state delegation having one vote (Romney would win). Senators elect the Vice-President (this one is tougher to call).

joana on June 14, 2012 at 6:18 PM

I love it that Mitt’s bus was driving around Big O’s speech site today honking its horn.

This is what democracy looks like/

ted c on June 14, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Seriously? LOL

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1orMXD_Ijbs

1984 in real life on June 14, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Rasmussen skews Republican and some of the polls used here are old. 538′s model is quite more sophisticated and complete than this.

My own projection right now:
Romney – 235
Obama – 231
Undecided – 72

joana on June 14, 2012 at 6:21 PM

You’re forgetting that Gov. Moonbeam signed a law saying CA gives it’s EV’s to the popular vote winner…which means Bambi could “lose” CA even haha

1984 in real life on June 14, 2012 at 6:13 PM

A Democrat losing the popular vote…

Bwahahahahahahahahahaha

They will fudge those numbers however they can, but the result is the same: Obama remains more “popular”.

nobar on June 14, 2012 at 6:22 PM

I can smell the desperation.

stldave on June 14, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Erika…..if a state has COAL, it ain’t gonna vote for Barry.

GarandFan on June 14, 2012 at 6:24 PM

I love it that Mitt’s bus was driving around Big O’s speech site today honking its horn.

This is what democracy looks like/

ted c on June 14, 2012 at 6:15 PM

..especially with the moon-bat pundits snarking about a “grown-up” campaign and all . Basically, it’s the losers grumbling, “Shut up and deal!”

The War Planner on June 14, 2012 at 6:25 PM

If Nevada keeps voting the same way with with the nation’s highest unemployment rate they deserve to have the nation’s highest unemployment rate.

http://fiscalwars.wordpress.com/2012/05/26/whats-wrong-with-nevada/

stout77 on June 14, 2012 at 6:26 PM

i’m underwhelmed with the notion of 50/50. if we’re bad enough off that 50 percent will sell their children and grandchildren into debt slavery with a central hive of industrial and social planning….well count me out.

i know the media is mendaciously leftist…but still, even semi-bright people should be able to figure this out

r keller on June 14, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Jugeared Jac kass 243??? What’s he planning on doing – buying them???

He will be lucky to carry D.C.

platypus on June 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

If none of the candidates reaches 270 votes in the electoral college, the House decides the election, with each state delegation having one vote (Romney would win). Senators elect the Vice-President (this one is tougher to call).

joana on June 14, 2012 at 6:18 PM

ROMNEY/BIDEN 2012!

(Sorry for the cheap, shameless Pragmatic imitation.)

The War Planner on June 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

We can’t get cocky!

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Oops. Click for the link.

Rixon on June 14, 2012 at 6:07 PM

But I do respect the work of the American Enterprise Institute.

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:30 PM

ROMNEY/BIDEN 2012!

(Sorry for the cheap, shameless Pragmatic imitation.)

The War Planner on June 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Pragmatic. Oh the irony…

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:30 PM

Yeah baby

cmsinaz on June 14, 2012 at 6:04 PM

That’s what I’m talkin bout!

Bmore on June 14, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Erika Johnsen
The anti-Allahpundit.

strictnein on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM

My thought exactly. It is nice to see some optimism at HA.

farright on June 14, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Erika Johnsen

The anti-Allahpundit.

strictnein on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I want my EeyorePundit!

Bruno Strozek on June 14, 2012 at 6:34 PM

And if you want to get really optimistic, check out Henrik Temp (a la Michael Barone)’s theory on the electoral possibilities — if we’re to expect more of the sort of “reframing speech”-duds that Obama proffered today, I’d bet Romney has this one in the bag.

..Erika, you are a breath of fresh air in afternoons suffused with AP’s eeyoreisms. You are a day-brightener and an absolute sweeeeeetie!

I love and adore Ms. War Planner with all my heart and soul but you have now supplanted Gerri Wills as number two on my list of “bull-pen” heart throbs!

Please remain here at HG for an eternity or two!

The War Planner on June 14, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Bmore. :)

cmsinaz on June 14, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Rasmussen skews Republican and some of the polls used here are old. 538′s model is quite more sophisticated and complete than this.

My own projection right now:
Romney – 235
Obama – 231
Undecided – 72

joana on June 14, 2012 at 6:21 PM

I expect we have the same states for Romney. I currently see it 235-221.

Meanwhile Ras skews a little Republican at times, but not nearly as hard as PPP skews Democrat. Meanwhile Q, S-USA, and Gallup (on a national scale, I haven’t seen them do state by state) back up the conservative leaning numbers.

Gingotts on June 14, 2012 at 6:36 PM

We can’t get cocky!

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

..but we can sure as hell practice!

The War Planner on June 14, 2012 at 6:36 PM

And this is before the debates. Let’s not forget Mitt took everyone to the wood shed in the debates, even Newt Gingrich! Barack Obama doesn’t have a chance, even with his teleprompter.

joncoltonis on June 14, 2012 at 6:37 PM

The anti-Allahpundit.

strictnein on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM

In every way, lol

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:37 PM

..but we can sure as hell practice!

The War Planner on June 14, 2012 at 6:36 PM

heh heh

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Slick Willy is working on Hillary 2012 (via the convention)

– So we can’t have Romney;s momentum discouraging Obama so much he decides to quit and spend more time with his girls. What a pleasant dilemma !!

KenInIL on June 14, 2012 at 6:39 PM

here trolls….here trolls…..

*waves scooby snacks*….

ted c on June 14, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Scooby snacks!?!? Isn’t that bath salts. They’ll eat each other’s faces off..oh cool.

Do we get film from that whorse face girl’s fundraiser with the drag queen tonight?

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on June 14, 2012 at 6:40 PM

It’s mid June. Slow down folks!

bs4948800 on June 14, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Even the Trolls are at a loss as to how to defend this schmuck now.

kingsjester on June 14, 2012 at 6:42 PM

If I crossed my fingers any harder they would break!

uber-con on June 14, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Even the Trolls are at a loss as to how to defend this schmuck now.

kingsjester on June 14, 2012 at 6:42 PM

I had to work today so I couldn’t read all the commentary on Obama’s speech, but I heard the one troll over there really earned his paycheck.

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:45 PM

The anti-Allahpundit.

strictnein on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Well, she does tend to see the glass half full, and we know how Eeyorepundit tends to see things.

Unless something drastic happens, like a huge gaffe by either candidate, or some completely unforeseen major event, Obama is going to lose by a landslide. He might just do worse than any second term presidential candidate in history.

novaculus on June 14, 2012 at 6:45 PM

“the result… ain’t too shabby”

But it’s still shabby! We can’t rest until this is looking like an absolute blowout, and I mean until there is no doubt at all that we are going to take this deep.

anotherJoe on June 14, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I don’t understand how President Choomer McDowngrade can win a single state. There’s some truly screwed-up voters in our country.

slickwillie2001 on June 14, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Imagine how the polls will look once the public at large really gets to know Romney. Obama will not have a prayer to be reelected.

Firecracker729 on June 14, 2012 at 6:49 PM

I’m still not sure why people believe Virginia is going blue again. Also…

check out Henrik Temp (a la Michael Barone)’s theory on the electoral possibilities — if we’re to expect more of the sort of “reframing speech”-duds that Obama proffered today, I’d bet Romney has this one in the bag.

I’d be more inclinced to agree with his map if he didn’t have MINNESOTA red (really!?!?).

SouthernGent on June 14, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Even the Trolls are at a loss as to how to defend this schmuck now.
 
kingsjester on June 14, 2012 at 6:42 PM

 
Look at verbaluce’s posts on one of the Holder threads to see what’s coming. Never discussing, never engaging, never addressing links, but just posting disjointed nonsense and then complaining about partisanship and attacks.
 
I think the plan is to state ridiculous and confusing nothingness over and over until the undecideds give up listening.
 
Although I can’t really see how that helps Obama.

rogerb on June 14, 2012 at 7:00 PM

CHANGE YOU CAN BELIEVE IN!

Tomolena1 on June 14, 2012 at 7:01 PM

I’m still not sure why people believe Virginia is going blue again. Also…

check out Henrik Temp (a la Michael Barone)’s theory on the electoral possibilities — if we’re to expect more of the sort of “reframing speech”-duds that Obama proffered today, I’d bet Romney has this one in the bag.

I’d be more inclinced to agree with his map if he didn’t have MINNESOTA red (really!?!?).

SouthernGent on June 14, 2012 at 6:56 PM

I honestly cannot believe it is this close. What does Obama have to do to get to 20%? Eat puppies, oh wait. Smoke dope, inhale, and snort blow?
What?????

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on June 14, 2012 at 7:03 PM

April 26, 2012:

Karl Rove’s first 2012 electoral map: Including “leaners,” Obama 284, Romney 172, toss-up 82

June 14, 2012:

Hmm: Romney, 269; Obama, 243?

What a difference 7 weeks makes.

peski on June 14, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Far too early but trends are trends. I think Obama’s in for a world of political hurt.

CW on June 14, 2012 at 7:16 PM

I put my guesses into an interactive map yesterday and came up with 269-269.

I’m figuring Romney will do better in the midwest than in the locust states.

forest on June 14, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I never would have said this one month ago, but I’m thinking landslide. I know everything could change very quickly between now and the election, but I’m beginning to think Obama’s got nothing left, and it’s all downhill from here.

The Rogue Tomato on June 14, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Romney/Biden?

Triple the secret service. Put Binden’s office in the white house out house. Frankly, if it came down to it, Biden would bail out. He wouldn’t want to do it.

rubberneck on June 14, 2012 at 7:20 PM

The fact that Romney’s already going toe-to-toe with the incumbent’s massive campaign machine should be giving President Obama cause for alarm.

Should be but isn’t. Obama is too damned stupid. He gave the same 54-minute speech that he gave back in 2008. This lack of understanding is why Romney is far ahead where a challenger should be when running against a sitting President.

Happy Nomad on June 14, 2012 at 7:21 PM

These forecasts also assume a status quo with our economy and a Europe that doesn’t implode over the next 5 months. Democrats need to seriously ask themselves today, right now, if they want to accompany Obama and the European-style welfare state out into the wilderness, because it is currently in its death throes.

Streamlined, agile, responsive government is the future. If we can figure that out before November we have a chance to give ourselves a competitive edge over the rest of the world. If not we join Europe at the bottom of the competitive heap.

stout77 on June 14, 2012 at 7:23 PM

All I’ll say is that the 1980 election polls were deemed too close to call and Jimmy Carter conceded before 9pm Eastern (before voting was even over in the West). This election has that same vibe.

Happy Nomad on June 14, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Pic of the Day: Tingles Sucks

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/pic-of-day-tingles-sucks.html

M2RB: Dave Matthews live

(Bishop, you actually DON’T have to listen to the music; however, I did just put up the Stones live in Amsterdam playing Gimme Shelter)

Resist We Much on June 14, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Not. getting. excited. yet.

Philly on June 14, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Far too early but trends are trends. I think Obama’s in for a world of political hurt.

CW on June 14, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Let’s hope so!!..:)

Dire Straits on June 14, 2012 at 7:46 PM

We can’t get cocky!

22044 on June 14, 2012 at 6:28 PM

I agree..Very good advice!!..:)

Dire Straits on June 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Reality check people!!!!

Automatic 45% re-elect # for the DOTUS.

Take NOTHING for granted.

PappyD61 on June 14, 2012 at 6:12 PM


Reality check
- check

and normally I’d agree with you on the solid 45% … but I think the largest political miscalculation EVER may have been the SCOAMF outing himself on gay marriage …

… there is very little tolerance for homosexuality in the African American community and even less in the African American churches …

It’s still too early but I am beginning to consider the low end being 40%

Take NOTHING for granted.check

PolAgnostic on June 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Erika Johnsen

The anti-Allahpundit.

strictnein on June 14, 2012 at 6:14 PM


It’s twue! It’s twue!

PolAgnostic on June 14, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Obama spoke at the Cuyahoga Community College in Cleveland. No doubt he’ll soon show up on the TV sitcom “Community”. If he isn’t to busy with appearances on “The View”.

BHO Jonestown on June 14, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Allah- Between this positive poll article about Romney’s chances , and the negative poll article about Romney’s chances (how many times?) from before, I’d think you might be a little, you know, bi-polar. Ain’t judging, just saying.

Badger in KC on June 14, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Allah- Between this positive poll article about Romney’s chances , and the negative poll article about Romney’s chances (how many times?) from before, I’d think you might be a little, you know, bi-polar. Ain’t judging, just saying.

Badger in KC on June 14, 2012 at 10:22 PM

.
Dude, not Allah – Erika, the anti-Allah

PolAgnostic on June 14, 2012 at 11:22 PM

i had him MAX 243. more probable 220s, and i am still betting on 184 (or less)

t8stlikchkn on June 15, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Erika…..if a state has COAL, it ain’t gonna vote for Barry.

GarandFan

Well…maybe not Illinois, but otherwise yeah let’s hope so!

Knott Buyinit on June 15, 2012 at 10:40 AM

My two copper portraits of the sixteeth president.

Romney starts at 179 EV (McCain states plus six thanks to the Census, and he ain’t losing one of them)

With or without Rubio he takes Florida’s 30 (enough older Jews, who hate how Obama treats Israel, probably stay home)

Gay marriage just cost him North Carolina, plus the Dem. state party organization is in disarray add 15, which puts him at 223.

He then basically has to pick off three of the following: Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin, Michigan…..

Add in competitive states like Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada and small fry New Hampshire

and Obama is playing defense all over the map and spending money in places he didn’t expect to.

All this talk of a Mondale style blowout is premature: Dukakis yes, perhaps: No matter what, Obama takes California, DC, New York, Maryland, Wasthingon and the liberal northeast, except for perhaps New Hampshire. He will definitely pull 100+ EV.

Teacher in Tejas on June 15, 2012 at 12:01 PM