Via Business Insider, this is fine blog material on a slow news day but is anyone taking this result seriously? C’mon. Even PPP sheepishly notes that it “seems like an unrealistically low share of African American voters for Obama.”
The split among blacks in North Carolina in 2008: Obama 95, McCain 5.
Romney leads O overall, 48/46, and has improved in North Carolina over the last few months, probably because his favorable rating has risen as GOP primary passions have cooled. But what about that amazing result among black voters? I assume a big chunk of it is simply a bad-luck (i.e. unrepresentative) sample for PPP plus the high margin of error that comes with polling a small demographic group (just 178 black voters were interviewed for the survey). Even so, two things give me pause. One: The margin of error, while high, probably isn’t so high to account completely for a result like this. I’d guess it’s somewhere in the neighborhood of 7-10 points; even if you shift that amount from Romney to Obama, The One’s still well off his 2008 pace. Which leads to point two: Are some socially conservative black voters defecting because of his reversal on gay marriage? Remember, North Carolina just banned SSM via referendum last month, a few days before O finally “evolved.” According to PPP, his shift on the policy softened opposition to gay marriage among black North Carolinians in the aggregate, but there may be a core constituency of 10 percent or so that’s adamantly opposed to the practice and simply can’t vote for O now that he’s embraced it. If that’s the case, he’s in deep trouble. NC was decided by just 14,000 votes in 2008 so he needs every last member of his base out there for him. Losing 10 percent of blacks could mean 15 electoral votes. Catastrophic for Democrats.
Keep an eye out for future polls from NC as I’m eager to see if this result is replicated anywhere. Meanwhile, elsewhere in “Obama’s base peeling off” news…
He’s nine points off the pace among whites in Generation O? Yikes. That’s not the only demographic where he’s down sharply either; follow the last link to see where he stands among lower-class white voters and unmarried white men, who voted for him last time to the tune of 51 percent. But wait — we’re not done.
The poll [of New York State], conducted by Siena College, finds that currently President Obama has the support of 51 percent of Jewish voters, while 43 percent are opposed to him. Five percent are undecided. That means, Obama’s lead among Jewish voters is at 8 percentage points.
Previously, in Siena’s May poll, Obama had the support 62 percent of Jewish New Yorkers, while 32 percent opposed him. That means, last month, Obama’s lead among this group of voters was at a strong 30 percentage points.
I’m skeptical of that result too, as that’s a mighty quick tightening of the race within this demographic notwithstanding the terrible May jobs report. Don’t forget, though, Gallup recently found Obama 10 points off his 2008 pace with Jewish voters nationwide. There is reason to believe that he’s slipping among this group, and like I said last week, in modern history a Democratic nominee who fails to crack 70 percent with Jews is in dire straits overall. Obama pulled 78 percent four years ago. Where will he land this time?
While you mull that, here’s a little bonus Serpenthead for you this afternoon. And yes, Iowa is very much a swing state this year.