Open thread: The Arizona congressional special election

posted at 9:40 pm on June 12, 2012 by Allahpundit

Normally we reserve open threads for national or statewide elections, but if Jesse Kelly pulls the upset tonight on a wave of Republican enthusiasm there’s going to be a full-fledged panic attack among O and his inner circle. Reason enough to flag it, just in case. Kelly’s got an awfully heavy lift: He’s running to replace Gabby Giffords and is facing Ron Barber, a former Giffords aide who was also shot in Tucson last year. That’s a lot of sympathy for Kelly to have to overcome in a district that already sent Giffords to Congress three times. The most recent public poll shows a double-digit Barber lead, but ABC thinks things could get interesting tonight:

While a new (non-airworthy) poll out Monday showed Barber ahead of Kelly by 12 points, insiders on both sides say their polling shows the race much tighter. Many of those closest to the contest give Barber a narrow advantage.

A win by Barber would be more than just a victory for the extended “Giffords family,” it would be a psychological boost for a White House that has endured a rough couple of weeks. After all, this is not a slam dunk Democratic district. McCain won this district in 2008, Bush carried it in 2004, and Republicans have a significant registration advantage here as well.

A Kelly win would provide another example of a Republican enthusiasm advantage over Democrats – i.e. Wisconsin recall. Furthermore, it would undercut one the Democrats’ main arguments for the fall campaign: that GOP support of Social Security and Medicare reform (like the Ryan budget) is politically toxic. Outside groups supporting Barber have pummeled Kelly with his own words on these entitlement programs. As the Arizona Daily Star reported: “Barber and Democrats remind voters daily that two years ago Kelly said he wanted to privatize and phase out Social Security and eliminate Medicare. They slam his pledge this go-round to protect the programs as a disingenuous trick.”

National Journal notes that there was an unprecedented amount of early voting in this election and it seems to have been driven by higher-than-expected returns from Democratic voters, a bad sign for Kelly given that Giffords used an early voting advantage to beat him two years ago. Even worse news: The newly redrawn district apparently will lean a bit more Democratic in November, so Kelly’s best shot is to win tonight and then hope that his (brief) incumbency will give him an edge in the fall. Might be now or never.

The polls close at 10 p.m. ET. Results should be available at the Secretary of State’s website. Oh, and as for the other big race today, George Allen won the Virginia Republican primary easily. No surprise.


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If you didn’t know Kolbe was gay to begin with, you weren’t paying enough attention. Perpetual bachelor politician usually equals gay. A million times better than Scam-rielle Giffords.

andy85719 on June 12, 2012 at 11:53 PM

Welcome to Jurassic Park. We have dinosaurs at the I-10 & Hwy 92 junction, so I guess it’s fitting that we just elected John Hammond.

Special K on June 12, 2012 at 11:53 PM

andy85719 on June 12, 2012 at 11:48 PM

Schadenfreude on June 12, 2012 at 11:47 PM

AZfederalist on June 12, 2012 at 11:49 PM

It seems the “sympathy vote” played a large part. Obama is still 38/55 in the district. Is Jesse Kelly maybe a bad candidate? He lost in 2010 too. I mean even McLame won the district by 8.

Is the district just full of RINOs or what?

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 12, 2012 at 11:58 PM

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 12, 2012 at 11:58 PM

Jesse got caught on tape advocating the wholesale elimination of Medicare, the elimination of the minimum wage, and the elimination of corporate taxes. Basically, destroyed his campaign before it even began.

andy85719 on June 13, 2012 at 12:00 AM

It looks like the Dem may win. That means this election is a preview of November. If the Republican ends up winning, then this election means nothing.

The Rogue Tomato on June 13, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Welcome to Jurassic Park. We have dinosaurs at the I-10 & Hwy 92 junction, so I guess it’s fitting that we just elected John Hammond.

Special K on June 12, 2012 at 11:53 PM

I guess i’m not the only one that noticed the guy looked like the tour guide from Jurassic Park.

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 13, 2012 at 12:01 AM

mitts hurting turnout. the base is depressed. they see no hope. if we can’t win now, when our country is being thrown in the toilet by a socialiast, then when can we win?

our message isn’t being heard. obamas handouts are overwhelming our side.

bummer.

renalin on June 12, 2012 at 11:30 PM

More Republicans than Democrats voted in Wisconsin, a very Blue state. Republicans lead Democrats in voter identification (Democrat voter id is down 5% since 2008) and enthusiasm. Obama’s lost critical support and will need turnout greater than in 2008 to make up for that loss and Romney will do better than McCain did. The Democrats had a 7 point advantage in turnout in 2008. That will NOT happen in November. If turnout is equal, as it was in 2004, the race is, at most, a toss up, if not an outright Romney victory.

Furthermore, Obama hasn’t had an approval rating over 50% with Independents since November 2009. He is stuck at 43% with Indies, now, when you include leaners. Take out leaners and he drops down into the low 30s. Historically, undecideds and true Indies break for the challenger.

Obama & His Base: Slow Dancing In A Burning Room

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/obama-his-base-slow-dancing-in-burning.html

I think that it was a foregone conclusion that this seat would stay with the Democrats. The sympathy vote was always gone to be overwhelming.

Resist We Much on June 13, 2012 at 12:01 AM

Jesse got caught on tape advocating the wholesale elimination of Medicare, the elimination of the minimum wage, and the elimination of corporate taxes. Basically, destroyed his campaign before it even began.

andy85719 on June 13, 2012 at 12:00 AM

There were IIRc, 2 other nominees challenging him in the primary, one the first female fighter jet pilot McAdams (sp?) and a Green Beret too.

He made those comments in 2010, why wasn’t someone else nominated?

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 13, 2012 at 12:03 AM

The Rogue Tomato on June 13, 2012 at 12:00 AM

It all means nothing but you were funny.

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 12:04 AM

Resist We Much, did you see that Uppereastside apologized to you yesterday afternoon/night?

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 12:05 AM

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 13, 2012 at 12:03 AM

Because there were nearly zero ads for these two and everyone knew Jesse. I’ve met him, he is really a nice guy. Politics just might not be where it’s at for him.

andy85719 on June 13, 2012 at 12:06 AM

This district is going considerably more democratic after this.

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 12, 2012 at 11:37 PM

It goes from 52-46 McCain to 50-49 McCain.

A good candidate can and should win the district. Someone like Martha McSally.

Kelly is simply awful. A mentally challenged extremist. Never had much of a chance.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Republican states have Dem districts, Dem states have Republican districts. We’ll see how things go in November.

But it looks to me like the Republicans need a better candidate in that district than Kelly.

crosspatch on June 13, 2012 at 12:12 AM

He made those comments in 2010, why wasn’t someone else nominated?

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 13, 2012 at 12:03 AM

We voted for Antenori, the Green Beret. He’d have had a better chance, but given the sympathy vote, he’s more valuable in the state Senate.

Yes, the Pima County Republicans leaders are a bunch of RINOs and act more like democrats; they kicked out the leader of the Pima County GOP by changing the rules in order to be able to do so. However, the establishment candidate wasn’t Kelly, it was Sitton, he didn’t do so well. McSally was too late to the campaign, too unknown, and then made a couple too many PC remarks to be considered conservative. She was one of those who piled on Limbaugh when he was lampooning the Georgetown law school student activist.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:13 AM

AZ fed,, was that person of the trunk related to Grigalva?

I believe so. His daughter is on the Tusd school board, where he started out. Adele Grigalva. Remember the bs last year that even Glenn Beck picked up on where they chained themselves to desks generally raised hell? That’s her. It’s incestuous. The rest of America had better understand the progressive cacauses game.

It starts in your local school boards, etc. Grigalva is a fat slob drunken commie. I’ve seen it with my own eyes. Now, his protengy follows in lockstep rigging elections caught flatfooted. No repercussions. He. RUNS the progressive caucus.

News, folks. This race is pretty important. Grigalva is cd7. right next door. Little mexico. This is cd8. Barber won’t even think. He’ll just lie cheat steal and vote progressive commie. It may not be a bastion for the nation like WI, but it sure is the last straw for here. It’s not the hispanic vote, that’s negligable unless they are voting for another hispanic. It’s the stupid commie libs, mostly woman in thier priouses adorned in obama bumper stickers.

I’m going to enjoy it when the pain filters down.

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

McSally was too late to the campaign, too unknown, and then made a couple too many PC remarks to be considered conservative. She was one of those who piled on Limbaugh when he was lampooning the Georgetown law school student activist.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:13 AM

You mean when the crazy druggie had to apologize for his lack of civility and helped Obama more than all liberal pundits together in the last year or so by turning the winning mandate issue into a discussion about contraception and civility towards women?

McSally is a sane conservative. The type of conservative that can win this state.

If AZ-08 (02) Republicans keep nominating Sharron Angle/Rush Limbaugh crazies like Jesse Kelly, then Barber has this seat for life.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

We voted for Antenori, the Green Beret. He’d have had a better chance, but given the sympathy vote, he’s more valuable in the state Senate.

Yes, the Pima County Republicans leaders are a bunch of RINOs and act more like democrats; they kicked out the leader of the Pima County GOP by changing the rules in order to be able to do so. However, the establishment candidate wasn’t Kelly, it was Sitton, he didn’t do so well. McSally was too late to the campaign, too unknown, and then made a couple too many PC remarks to be considered conservative. She was one of those who piled on Limbaugh when he was lampooning the Georgetown law school student activist.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:13 AM

I saw McSally written about at Daily Caller, IIRC, when she first entered the race, didn’t know she was a RINO. She was being hyped up then. It seems Kelly is a great guy, but just a horrible candidate. Even in 2010, McCain won the district by 14 to be re-elected to the Senate, while Kelly lost by about 1%. But I think the sympathy vote played a large role you’re right.

Raquel Pinkbullet on June 13, 2012 at 12:21 AM

It is disgusting the way that democrats have used Giffords and paraded her around like a prize pony.

Pork-Chop on June 13, 2012 at 12:21 AM

((Hugs))to my fellow CD-8r’s.

andy85719 on June 13, 2012 at 12:06 AM

AZfederalist on June 12, 2012 at 11:49 PM

The primary for this was too full of people. We can’t seem to get our act together here. I think many D’s voted for Kelly in the primary because they knew they could beat him today. A guy I work with was all proud of himself for doing it. Kelly also had the name recognition from ’10.

You put Colonel Sanders up on screen looking all old with the mediscare out of context Kelly and it petrified our retirees. The DNC actually had a clip of Kelly saying Gabby was no hero, screaming it actually. This was from before the last election and the shooting, but it was chilling out of context for anyone with their head up their arse far enough not to question when it was said. I knew going in that those ads would be back against Kelly and much less civil than the last go round. McSally, Antenori, or Sitton would have done better I think.

hazchic on June 13, 2012 at 12:22 AM

AZ fed,, was that person of the trunk related to Grigalva?

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

Yup. Media and election officials turned a blind eye. One of the Republicans also had her car top slashed during the “civil discourse” in which democrats engage as well during that election cycle. CD7 election was lost by the margin of fraud. Grijalva would have pizza parties for constituents, to get in, you had to bring an absentee ballot. All on the “up and up” of course.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:23 AM

~Sigh. That open registration worked out SO well.

sybilll on June 13, 2012 at 12:25 AM

It is disgusting the way that democrats have used Giffords and paraded her around like a prize pony.

Pork-Chop on June 13, 2012 at 12:21 AM

The sun rose in the East today, really, and H2O is wet.

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 12:27 AM

You mean when the crazy druggie had to apologize for his lack of civility and helped Obama more than all liberal pundits together in the last year or so by turning the winning mandate issue into a discussion about contraception and civility towards women?

You know joana, I mostly ignore your Romneybot (or is that Romney campaign staffer?) drivel. But tonight, sitting behind enemy lines, after a defeat of a conservative candidate whom I supported and looking at the communist who will be occupying that seat, may I be the first to tell you to take your anti-conservative snark and shove it where the sun don’t shine? You have always been a pompous @$$ and that comment above is pretty much proof that you don’t even understand the context of the point being made. Get stuffed.

McSally is a sane conservative. The type of conservative that can win this state.

If AZ-08 (02) Republicans keep nominating Sharron Angle/Rush Limbaugh crazies like Jesse Kelly, then Barber has this seat for life.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

Coming from you, that pretty much confirms the RINO’ish aroma wafting from the brief encounter with her campaign.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:29 AM

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:29 AM

Doh! I know you didn’t!
Hunting RINOs!

hazchic on June 13, 2012 at 12:33 AM

Coming from you, that pretty much confirms the RINO’ish aroma wafting from the brief encounter with her campaign.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:29 AM

Today is 25 years since this.

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 12:34 AM

You mean when the crazy druggie had to apologize for his lack of civility and helped Obama more than all liberal pundits together in the last year or so by turning the winning mandate issue into a discussion about contraception and civility towards women?

joana on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

The mandate argument was always going to be about contraception rather than religious liberty, that is the only way the progs could have a chance at winning it.

and while McSally seemed ok, a friend of mine went to some campaign event and told me when the hard policy questions came up she was a deer in the headlights.

kenashimame on June 13, 2012 at 12:40 AM

kenashimame on June 13, 2012 at 12:40 AM

Fluke disappeared as fast as she appeared.

Winning, indeed!

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 12:44 AM

Today is 25 years since this.

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 12:34 AM

Thanks for that. Yep, and 25 years ago, the liberal heads exploded and the RINO’s cringed when he said that.

Gads, I miss him.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:47 AM

and while McSally seemed ok, a friend of mine went to some campaign event and told me when the hard policy questions came up she was a deer in the headlights.

kenashimame on June 13, 2012 at 12:40 AM

She had just gotten back into the country from overseas deployment and really did not have a grasp of current events. Yes, her service to the country is admirable, but she rushed the attempt to seek office without being prepared.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:49 AM

Rained all day in Maryland but it was 15 degrees cooler. Not like hot Arizona where I grew up.

Oh well I think this was a lot about giving sympathy to Gabby. Hopefully in the Fall that will have dissipated and we might win.

But then to the Party has to get it’s act together and make sure it nominates it’s candidate not cross over democrats.

Steveangell on June 13, 2012 at 12:57 AM

Dudes, seriously – the inbreds here in CD8 / Pima still keep voting for Sherrif Dupnik. With that in mind, are you really surprised Kelly is getting taken? The only thing holding any kind of conservative vote are the rednecks in Catalina/Pinal and Cochise.

SkinnerVic on June 13, 2012 at 12:58 AM

Hey Joana, you wouldn’t support McSally simply because she is female, now would you? Seriously, do you think identity politics might be a problem? If I’m black, I vote for the black. If I’m a woman I vote for the woman.

Awesome lady. True hero. Conservative to be sure.

But let’s get real. You dig her because she’s a woman. And she stole votes on that alone. If she was hispanic to boot, she would have won.

Don’t think too much. It might hurt. Just vote for your gender/race. And enjoy another prog/commie winning. My God, how can people be so ill informed?

Question: how many days did McSally reside in Az? I have the same beef with Kelly.

You women need quit this crap. I would have voted for Palin in a heartbeat. I guess gender is secondary. As it should be.

You don’t fly in here from nowhere, and represent me.

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 1:01 AM

Dudes, seriously – the inbreds here in CD8 / Pima still keep voting for Sherrif Dupnik.
SkinnerVic on June 13, 2012 at 12:58 AM

Hopefully this is the year we get to dump Sherriff Dumb[censored]. I think there is sufficient campaign fodder to give him the boot. That, plus it’s all of Pima county, not just CD7 and CD8. Not sure that latino military vet SWAT shooting is going to help him in CD7.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 1:01 AM

Hopefully this is the year we get to dump Sherriff Dumb[censored]. I think there is sufficient campaign fodder to give him the boot. That, plus it’s all of Pima county, not just CD7 and CD8. Not sure that latino military vet SWAT shooting is going to help him in CD7.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 1:01 AM

True dat. Most of the DPS people I know (not Pima Co. Sherrif) said that guy “had it coming.” Not that I buy into it, but yes most people outside LEO I would agree aren’t going to put up with his crap. Our job is to get a good replacement on the ballot, not Kelly-like.

SkinnerVic on June 13, 2012 at 1:06 AM

You know joana, I mostly ignore your Romneybot (or is that Romney campaign staffer?) drivel. But tonight, sitting behind enemy lines, after a defeat of a conservative candidate whom I supported and looking at the communist who will be occupying that seat, may I be the first to tell you to take your anti-conservative snark and shove it where the sun don’t shine? You have always been a pompous @$$ and that comment above is pretty much proof that you don’t even understand the context of the point being made. Get stuffed.

Coming from you, that pretty much confirms the RINO’ish aroma wafting from the brief encounter with her campaign.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 12:29 AM

Geez, why are you so angry?

Someone needs to learn some manners, no?

If there’s a RINO here, it’s you, certainly not me. I suspect I’m easily to your right on political issues.

What’s necessary to understand is that one can be conservative without being crazy, a blowhard or a drug addict.

A conservative can win this district. It’s more about style and tone than policy positions de per se. Now, if you want to keep nominating talk-radio “conservatives” and people with your type of manners and public discourse, go ahead. However, in that scenario, Barber will be a shoo-in every 2 years.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 1:08 AM

Our job is to get a good replacement on the ballot, not Kelly-like.

SkinnerVic on June 13, 2012 at 1:06 AM

Do you have any preferences in the current pool of candidates? Mrs. Federalist really likes Holck (sp?).

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 1:08 AM

Hey Joana, you wouldn’t support McSally simply because she is female, now would you?
wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 1:01 AM

Nope. Couldn’t care less. Anything else?

Your hysterical animosity towards women is noted; however I don’t think your orientation is a relevant issue for this blog.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 1:10 AM

So, the headline story of the night is that Democrats hold onto Giffords seat. Wow, I never saw that coming….s/

sandee on June 13, 2012 at 1:10 AM

The mandate argument was always going to be about contraception rather than religious liberty, that is the only way the progs could have a chance at winning it.

Up to the point that Santorum and the druggie stepped in with their costumary grace, verve and political tact, the argument was actually going quite well for our side.

and while McSally seemed ok, a friend of mine went to some campaign event and told me when the hard policy questions came up she was a deer in the headlights.

kenashimame on June 13, 2012 at 12:40 AM

That would still be a huge improvement over Kelly.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 1:11 AM

PHOENIX (AP) — Democrat Ron Barber has won a special House election in southern Arizona to finish the term of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

Giffords resigned a year after she was shot in the head while meeting with constituents at a Tucson shopping center.

Barber defeated Republican Jesse Kelly, a former Marine who narrowly lost a House race to Giffords in 2010.

The 66-year-old Barber was seriously injured in the same rampage in which Giffords was shot. Six others were killed.

Holding onto the seat has been a priority for Democrats as they seek to regain control of the House in November.

Republicans tried to make the race a referendum on President Barack Obama, a strategy they’ll continue to follow in other swing districts in this fall’s congressional elections.

Schadenfreude on June 13, 2012 at 1:18 AM

Up to the point that Santorum and the druggie stepped in
joana on June 13, 2012 at 1:11 AM

… and we can pretty much stop reading right there. You keep using that word, I do not think it means what you think it means. You realize that the root of Rush’s drug addiction was a dependence upon prescribed medication for back pain that got out of control. He sought treatment and went through re-hab. That’s been what, almost 10 years since that problem was identified and addressed? Yet people like you keep bringing it up. I really like how tolerant people like you are and how willing to forgive those who have owned up to their shortcomings and taken steps to resolve them. Particularly galling in your attitude is the fact that this addiction did not come about because he was seeking new thrills or recreational use of drugs and partied too hard, but through an unfortunately too common occurrence in which properly prescribed pain medications take over a patient’s life.

My suspicion is that you have never really listened to Limbaugh for more than a few minutes at a time, if that long, but are basing your statements upon what others have said about him. Doesn’t really matter though, it’s your narrative that is wrong.

AZfederalist on June 13, 2012 at 1:25 AM

Dearest Joana, when Rush moves here and runs, he sure as hell has my vote. Please explain your brand of Conservatism, seems quite odd. Are you offended by the term femi-nazi? Do they exizt? I think they do. I’m quite certain of it. Is Rush still addicted? Maybe his hot wife knows the truth.

Or you dispute what he has to say. As a self proclaimed conservative that would be interesting.

Go ahead. Try it on here. You’ll be descimated.

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 1:31 AM

So, the headline story of the night is that Democrats hold onto Giffords seat. Wow, I never saw that coming….s/

sandee on June 13, 2012 at 1:10 AM

At least it sends the message that lunatics don’t get to change the political equation with violence. I’m not sure that’s what the shooter was trying to do. I think he was just upset that Giffords wouldn’t listen to his ranting.

RBMN on June 13, 2012 at 1:37 AM

Hysterical animosity towards women is the claim. Odd that. I believe I mentioned I’m a Palinite. I could provide a very long list of Conservative women that I totally respect. In fact, I think they may save the Rebublic in the long run.
You, sweetie, are a feminizt hack. Pretending to be something else. You people don’t get it. We’re not stupid.

Now make me a sandwich. Lol. Or is that racist?

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 1:56 AM

and the druggie stepped in

Poppycock.

Kenosha Kid on June 13, 2012 at 1:59 AM

Charles Summers is the nominee in Maine.

Kevin Cramer is the nominee in ND-AL.

Chris Edwards wins in NV-1.

Danny Tarkanian is the nominee in NV-4.

ME-1 is still too close to call.

topdawg on June 13, 2012 at 2:02 AM

You mean when the crazy druggie had to apologize for his lack of civility and helped Obama more than all liberal pundits together in the last year or so by turning the winning mandate issue into a discussion about contraception and civility towards women?

joana on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

The girl spends $3,000 a year on contraception. What would you call her? A nun? You’re parroting the liberal meme, so you probably will want to shut up now and put down the wine glass.

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on June 13, 2012 at 2:05 AM

If I’m a woman I vote for the woman.
You women need quit this crap. I would have voted for Palin in a heartbeat. I guess gender is secondary. As it should be.

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 1:01 AM

Do you think that’s correct. I think that probably happens a lot on the left, but I don’t buy it, in general, on the right.

(In fact, I think I’d go with a female conservative bias against a woman candidate on the right, if any bias existed–that is, if I had to bet on it. Mind you, I have no proof–it’s just a feeling.)

RedCrow on June 13, 2012 at 2:07 AM

That would still be a huge improvement over Kelly.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 1:11 AM

Well, Joana, I think you are being just as bad as those you would scorn. First of all, it isn’t really Limbaugh doing a lot of this. Rush actually has a decent political nose. I would suspect it would be more someone like Levin who would be promoting Jesse Kelly. It was Levin who was on the bandwagon for Angle, it was Levin who was on the bandwagon for O’Donnell, it was Levin who was on the bandwagon for Hoffman in New York. I love reading Mark Levin’s stuff in print but frankly I can’t stomach much of his radio show and I don’t think he is all that good for the Republican Party, either, as I feel that his support of these fringe candidates don’t do much other than to help elect Democrats to office.

But I think you are being a bit extreme in your name-calling, too. Judging from what I have seen coming out of this district, it is basically a center Democrat district. Running a “real conservative” in that district is probably going to fall flat. People just are not going to vote for that stuff there. A Republican who is closer to the center would probably stand a pretty good chance of winning there but that candidate would get nothing but grief from the likes of Levin or maybe even Hannity so the district goes Democrat. I find little difference, really, between the far left and the far right. They both are intolerant, have tunnel vision, have broad “one size fits all” solutions to problems and they both want to shove their vision down the throats of other people from Washington DC.

The notion that each state and maybe different regions within a state have different problems and with varying degrees of severity and have differing arrays of resources to bring to bear seems to be alien to both extremes. They tend to want some magic solution applied across the board.

Quite frankly, I want politicians in office that can look at the problems currently being faced and offer solutions. Chuck Reed, a Democrat and mayor of San Jose said, for example, that the current pension plans are completely irresponsible. If he were a hard core lefty, there is no way he would tackle pension reform. I want politicians focused on problems and solutions, not on ideology. I don’t care what my city councilman’s position is on abortion, I want to know his position on making sure the park bathrooms have toilet paper.

crosspatch on June 13, 2012 at 2:10 AM

Redcrow= McSally is a female. Got 24% of the vote out of thin air. Doesn’t live here. Flew in from Europe.flubbed several times. Still got 24%. I get your point, man I wish we were above that. We’re not. I watched it closely. She’s not all that attractive, so maybe the jealousy factor didn’t play in.

She she showed up last minute and barely campaigned. I know the field. Women voted for a woman. On our side. It’s what happened. It cost us. Bigtime.

wolly4321 on June 13, 2012 at 3:17 AM

I assumed most of McSally’s support was based on her military service, not just her gender.

juliesa on June 13, 2012 at 6:25 AM

Front page of the AZ Republic

:(

onto november…

cmsinaz on June 13, 2012 at 6:57 AM

Well, Joana, I think you are being just as bad as those you would scorn.

crosspatch on June 13, 2012 at 2:10 AM

joana is showing us that she doesn’t have a lot of class? NO WAY!!!

Next, you’ll probably be telling us that ddrintn, HondaV65, and angryed don’t, either, and HA’s world will start spinning in reverse!

PS crosspatch, just to be clear, I am not making fun of you here at all. :)

Bizarro No. 1 on June 13, 2012 at 7:08 AM

That’s a lot of sympathy for Kelly to have to overcome

It’s awesome when elections are based on sympathy!

/end of the Republic

mankai on June 13, 2012 at 8:25 AM

Well, too bad, but it was expected.

So what was the final margin? PPP had Barber up 12 yesterday and I want to know for future reference how wrong they were.

Missy on June 13, 2012 at 9:01 AM

Okay, answering my own question. Looks like Barber won 53-45. 8 points to PPP’s 12. I think they were also off by 4 points in their last WI poll.

Something to remember esp. when you look at their swing state polling.

Missy on June 13, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Not really worth drawing much from this one. I would have considered voting for Barber had I lived in the district – if we’re going to take down a Dem seat, I’d rather it not be in an election essentially caused by a psychopath.

Red Cloud on June 13, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Well, Joana, I think you are being just as bad as those you would scorn. First of all, it isn’t really Limbaugh doing a lot of this. Rush actually has a decent political nose. I would suspect it would be more someone like Levin who would be promoting Jesse Kelly. It was Levin who was on the bandwagon for Angle, it was Levin who was on the bandwagon for O’Donnell, it was Levin who was on the bandwagon for Hoffman in New York. I love reading Mark Levin’s stuff in print but frankly I can’t stomach much of his radio show and I don’t think he is all that good for the Republican Party, either, as I feel that his support of these fringe candidates don’t do much other than to help elect Democrats to office.

Nevertheless Rush was with Levin on the bandwagon every single time.

I wasn’t the one mentioning Rush. I was just explaining that Limbaugh’s type of rethoric is deadly in a district like this (and many others). Some Republicans refuse to reckon this and Pelosi should be thankful for that.

The fact that Levin is even more demented doesn’t change that.

But I think you are being a bit extreme in your name-calling, too. Judging from what I have seen coming out of this district, it is basically a center Democrat district. Running a “real conservative” in that district is probably going to fall flat. People just are not going to vote for that stuff there. A Republican who is closer to the center would probably stand a pretty good chance of winning there but that candidate would get nothing but grief from the likes of Levin or maybe even Hannity so the district goes Democrat. I find little difference, really, between the far left and the far right. They both are intolerant, have tunnel vision, have broad “one size fits all” solutions to problems and they both want to shove their vision down the throats of other people from Washington DC.

The notion that each state and maybe different regions within a state have different problems and with varying degrees of severity and have differing arrays of resources to bring to bear seems to be alien to both extremes. They tend to want some magic solution applied across the board.

Quite frankly, I want politicians in office that can look at the problems currently being faced and offer solutions. Chuck Reed, a Democrat and mayor of San Jose said, for example, that the current pension plans are completely irresponsible. If he were a hard core lefty, there is no way he would tackle pension reform. I want politicians focused on problems and solutions, not on ideology. I don’t care what my city councilman’s position is on abortion, I want to know his position on making sure the park bathrooms have toilet paper.

crosspatch on June 13, 2012 at 2:10 AM

That sort of technocracy is just as ideological as anything else. Sure, a councilman’s position on abortion is pretty irrelevant, but it’s different for a Congressman, a Federal Senator or the POTUS.

Your mindset that politicians should come up with solutions is alien to me. I’d rather have politicians literate enough to understand that most problems aren’t political and don’t have political solutions. That the best help the government can provide is to be absent.

Anyway, as regards to this district, it’s more conservative than you’re thinking. Even a crazy like Jesse Kelly came close of beating a fairly strong incumbent like Giffords. Why do you think Barber refused to say he’d vote for Pelosi for Speaker if elected?

Someone like Jeff Flake, one of the most conservative Congressmen, would easily win this district. Romney will win this district – all they need is to find someone who doesn’t scare away too many Romney voters.

Obviously, if the nomination process is dominated by paranoiacs and lunatics who start screaming RINO at the most qualified candidate, just because she dared to criticize their dear leader for something that was so obviously a faux pas that he quickly apologized, then the chances of finding such a candidate are greatly reduced.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 9:42 AM

The girl spends $3,000 a year on contraception. What would you call her? A nun? You’re parroting the liberal meme, so

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on June 13, 2012 at 2:05 AM

7

Why would I call her a nun? Why exactly do you think I should call her anything? Why do you need to call people names and say stuff like “you probably will want to shut up now and put down the wine glass”?

joana on June 13, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Why would I call her a nun? Why exactly do you think I should call her anything? Why do you need to call people names and say stuff like “you probably will want to shut up now and put down the wine glass”?

joana on June 13, 2012 at 9:44 AM

You should be asking yourself the same question…

Bizarro No. 1 on June 13, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Why do you need to call people names and say stuff like “you probably will want to shut up now and put down the wine glass”?

joana on June 13, 2012 at 9:44 AM

You mean when the crazy druggie had to apologize for his lack of civility and helped Obama more than all liberal pundits together in the last year or so by turning the winning mandate issue into a discussion about contraception and civility towards women?

McSally is a sane conservative. The type of conservative that can win this state.

If AZ-08 (02) Republicans keep nominating Sharron Angle/Rush Limbaugh crazies like Jesse Kelly, then Barber has this seat for life.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 12:20 AM

Hypocritical much?

Eren on June 13, 2012 at 10:07 AM

It’s awesome when elections are based on sympathy!

/end of the Republic

Giffords was paraded around like a mexican show donkey. It will be this way for a long time. Tucson is a mess of stupid democrats and so called independents (a name for somebody so luke warm the stand the direction of the wind, nothing else).

wsucoug on June 13, 2012 at 10:26 AM

6 1/2% … not bad. This will be a very likely pickup in November, when everyone there is geared up to remove Our Idiot President from office, along with his gun-walking retard of an AG.

Jaibones on June 13, 2012 at 10:29 AM

In 2010 he lost by less than 2 points to Giffords. And now it’s 6.5?

This is not a good sign for the GOP in Arizona.

ButterflyDragon on June 13, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Your hysterical animosity towards women is noted; however I don’t think your orientation is a relevant issue for this blog.

joana on June 13, 2012 at 1:10 AM

Way to twist, RINO. You sound like a true believer in the reality of the “war on women”.
Masquerading as a Conservative doesn’t seem to be your long suit, does it?

btw: Do you refer to your president (that would be B.Hussein Obama) as a “druggie”? Or do you reserve that for Conservatives who have successfully completed a rehab program and are now drug-free?

I doubt seriously that you are to the right of anyone on this site.

Solaratov on June 13, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Moby

Bmore on June 13, 2012 at 11:54 AM

I doubt seriously that you are to the right of anyone on this site.

Solaratov on June 13, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Not even Drywall the Canuck Dumbf*ck? Or Mo-lester?

MelonCollie on June 13, 2012 at 12:03 PM

The girl spends $3,000 a year on contraception. What would you call her? A nun? You’re parroting the liberal meme, so

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on June 13, 2012 at 2:05 AM

7

Why would I call her a nun? Why exactly do you think I should call her anything? Why do you need to call people names and say stuff like “you probably will want to shut up now and put down the wine glass”?

joana on June 13, 2012 at 9:44 AM

I didn’t call you a crazy druggie or anything of the kind. I hope you just had too much pinot noir last night because if not, I think this site might want to institute an IQ test before open registration.
Either way, you need to unknot your panties because they are way too tight.

CherryBombsBigBrownBeaver on June 13, 2012 at 1:01 PM

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