Obama only up 6 in PA Q-poll

posted at 8:41 am on June 12, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

A few days ago, the Romney campaign reportedly considered Pennsylvania out of its reach.  According to a new poll from Quinnipiac, they may want to rethink that analysis.  Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in the heavily Democratic state, but only by six points, and he’s well below the 50% mark needed for incumbents:

With strong support from women and independent voters, President Barack Obama leads Gov. Mitt Romney 46 – 40 among Pennsylvania voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Romney would do a better job on the economy, voters say 49 – 41 percent.

The matchup compares to a 47 – 39 percent Obama lead in a May 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. …

“President Barack Obama is holding his ground against Gov. Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania. While almost four-fifths of voters, including 58 percent of Republicans, say the President is a likable person, where the rubber meets the road on the campaign trail – the economy – Romney has the lead,” said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Pennsylvanians may like the president more than they like Mitt Romney, but the warm and fuzzy feeling gives way to the cold hard truth of a still shaky economy.”

Lest one think that this could be a sampling issue, incumbent Democrat Robert Casey Jr leads his Republican challenger by nearly 20 points in the US Senate race at this time, 51/32.  That’s a difference of 13 points in the gap between the two races.  As the economy becomes more and more of the focus, Obama looks more and more vulnerable.

What’s interesting about this result is its consistency with the entire Q-poll series.  In five polls taken since last December, Obama hasn’t let Romney by more than eight points — which happened in the previous poll, as noted above.  One of the two polls taken in March had the same exact outcome as today’s, while the other showed Obama only three points up on Romney.  While the entire series could be an outlier, this particular result and the relative position of Romney to Obama in this poll is no outlier within the series.

So why hasn’t Team Romney gotten more aggressive about courting Pennsylvanians?  First, it’s early, so they have plenty of time to focus on this state if they see some advantage in doing so.  They may also be looking at the breakout of independents, which Obama seems to win by a larger margin than the overall survey, 43/35.  That’s a curious outcome, and it does call into question the topline results, since Democrats have a double-digit registration edge in the state.  If Romney’s losing indies by eight points, how does he get within six overall?  And with those numbers, how does Obama go from a 48/47 re-elect number, including a 46/47 among independents, to a 46/40 in a head-to-head matchup against Romney?

Team Romney might look at those internals and reasonably conclude that the topline numbers don’t accurately reflect the difficulty in winning Pennsylvania, and they may be right.  If the economy worsens, though, or Obama issues another clueless “private sector is doing fine” statement, things could change in the Keystone State.  If Romney can force Obama to spend a lot of money in Pennsylvania, it might be easier to beat Obama in other key swing states — and if Romney can grab the state away from Obama, the incumbent has almost no realistic path to an Electoral College victory.


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Make him fight for every state.

antisocial on June 12, 2012 at 8:44 AM

If Romney wins PA, its over for Obama…

RedSoxNation on June 12, 2012 at 8:44 AM

Some CA polls have Obama at 50%. If there is anyway some Super PAC could focus attention on CA to make Obama spend money there, that would be a huge strategic advantage…

RedSoxNation on June 12, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Hmmmmm!

canopfor on June 12, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Bah! If Quinnipiac has Obama up by only 6, then in reality, he’s only up by 3 or so. Pennsylvania is a red state; they just don’t know it yet.

Pope Linus on June 12, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Just what i was thinking antisocial
fight

cmsinaz on June 12, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Penn still seems to be a lost cause. Focus on the true swing states.

Donald Draper on June 12, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Romney may as well go after Pennsylvania. I mean there’s no way Obama is winning Ohio or Indiana and Wisconsin, Iowa, and Michigan are looking bad for him. So put something out there in Pennsylvania to at least make Obama burn some of his money.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 12, 2012 at 8:51 AM

“Pennsylvanians may like the president more than they like Mitt Romney, but the warm and fuzzy feeling gives way to the cold hard truth of a still shaky economy.”

Hey, Otis Campbell was “likeable”, but that doesn’t mean I’d ever let him get behind the wheel.

AubieJon on June 12, 2012 at 8:52 AM

I want them to hurt as much as we did. I want their spirits crushed, their backs broken.

So the way we do that is we deliver a defeat worse than they ever imagined. We do that by winning states that have no business turning Blue Red – Kos

thebrokenrattle on June 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Try not to get too excited about these results. Consider this.

2004 PA Results
Kerry: 51
Bush: 48

Getting beaten by double the margin Bush did in 2004 in PA, where 2004 was a very tight election is hardly cause for elation.

A six-point lead means that Romney has an outside shot at it. If Obama keeps having more months like the last one he just had, the possibility of a Romney win there becomes more realistic, but I’d bet on Obama holding PA. Socially conservative, fiscally liberal does not play to Romney’s strengths.

Stoic Patriot on June 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Mitt’s waiting for ddrintn to tell him what to do.

Basilsbest on June 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

The Media won’t even report this poll.

BUT….BUT….BUT…..they will report “Top CONSERVATIVE” Lindsay Graham says don’t sign the “no new taxes” pledge.

D.C. Ruling class and their lapdancers in the media……so much to despise, so little time.

Romney / Walker 2012
Just to piss off D.C.

PappyD61 on June 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

I just drove through my former home state of PA, spent a few days there and am now here in up-state NY. The only place in the country where I still see quite an abundance of Obama 08 bumper stickers and other such liberal nonsense on cars. Winning this area is an uphill battle I think for even the best GOP candidate.

hawkdriver on June 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

They may also be looking at the breakout of independents, which Obama seems to win by a larger margin than the overall survey, 43/35. That’s a curious outcome, and it does call into question the topline results, since Democrats have a double-digit registration edge in the state.

The weighted partisan split is 38% D / 33% R / 24% I / 5% other/refused (the last is not broken down in the summary). The unweighted split is even closer – 36.4% D / 34.1% R / 25.2% I / 4.3% other/refused. Enthusiasm gap?

Steve Eggleston on June 12, 2012 at 8:55 AM

With that said, if Romney is even within mid-single digits in Pennsylvania come November, he will win in a landslide.

Steve Eggleston on June 12, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Looking at Pennsylvania, why the heck did the Republicans decide not to do this?

Stoic Patriot on June 12, 2012 at 8:56 AM

I furgetted to post the linky.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/top-conservative-says-read-lips-don-t-sign-101721355.html

Prepare to hurl your breakfast.

***what was the breakdown on the sample in this poll?

PappyD61 on June 12, 2012 at 8:57 AM

While PA may have went for SCFOAMF in 2008 the map shows that McCain won an overwhelming majority of counties. The GOP failure was in losing the urban centers (Philly, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg) by big margins.

All Romney has to do is flip a couple outlying suburbs and he’ll take the state.

ironbill on June 12, 2012 at 8:57 AM

yes please go after it, having grown up there it annoys me to no end R’s can’t seem to win it in presidential races, but seem to be able to win other statewide races. Maybe just spoiled since the first 3 presidential races I remember are 80,84 and 88. Hell Bush 43 didn’t lose there by all that much either time.

gsherin on June 12, 2012 at 8:58 AM

I just drove through my former home state of PA, spent a few days there and am now here in up-state NY. The only place in the country where I still see quite an abundance of Obama 08 bumper stickers and other such liberal nonsense on cars. Winning this area is an uphill battle I think for even the best GOP candidate.

hawkdriver on June 12, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Hey thanks for the kind words yesterday !

I actually ordered some Romney bumper stickers yesterday. In a way it still bothers me a bit given how I still feel about Romney in many respects but the bumper stickers work out well in two ways for me:

1. It shows support in the biggest election of our lifetime. Regardless of what conservatives think of Romney he’s not a socialist. It’s time to get in the game and show some support and worry about keeping ROmney in line once in office.

2. It’s fun to irritate liberals. Even if I can frustrate some lib for 10 – 20 seconds when they see the Romney sticker it makes my day! To them ROmney is a right wing extremist so I’m more than glad to play that up to irritate them. And it just so happens that we’re taking a family vacation to Lake George in July. I’ll have the Romney stickers on the car, can’t wait to see their smug, ignorant liberal faces!

LevinFan on June 12, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Looking at Pennsylvania, why the heck did the Republicans decide not to do this?

Stoic Patriot on June 12, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Wow, I don’t know what ad everyone else got when they clicked on that link, but I got the Enter to Win Dinner with Barack ad and it’s getting sad. I used to work in the corporate office a casino company and I was one of the web developers so we had to do a lot with marketing and no joke that ad looks like exactly like what we would have as a promotional picture on one of the websites.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 12, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Does the PA voter ID law have real teeth and will it be enforced where needed? Could make the difference.

Uncledave on June 12, 2012 at 9:06 AM

PA is just like NJ, imo. There will be a few close polls and then the race will break big for the Dems a few weeks before election day. Don’t waste the money there. Win Ohio and Virginia and the rest will fall into place.

gumbyandpokey on June 12, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Team Romney’s first responsibility is to make sure they have their “First to 270″ game plan well thought out and ready to execute. And if early indications after the conventions show that strategy is paying off and polls show Pennsylvania is still close, then they can start thinking about going after the state (and it would help a lot if New Jersey is also within 3-6 points at that time, since that would allow double-dipping on TV and print ads in the Philadelphia market).

jon1979 on June 12, 2012 at 9:09 AM

Here in NJ OFA is asking us to spend Fathers Day in PA registering voters and talking to people on their front porches. They are even organizing car pools to get us there!!! Dems are worried about PA.

ctmom on June 12, 2012 at 9:12 AM

If the economy worsens, though, or Obama issues another clueless “private sector is doing fine” statement, things could change in the Keystone State.

One follows the other, since the President has absolutely no other option than happy talking the economy at this stage of the game. Since we’re headed downwards again in reality, he has to see how many voters he can fool.

Romney will be competitive in all these borderline states– late summer upticks in unemployment numbers will guarantee that. That’s a sucky way to win, because the hole we are in is deep as hell and Romney is going to have a short honeymoon.

Go against your big government instincts Romney! Go with less regulation, smaller government employment and less spending!!

MTF on June 12, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Wow, look at the incredible support for a voter ID law in that poll. Us Pennsylvanians sure is some racist bastards.

eyedoc on June 12, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Mitt’s waiting for ddrintn to tell him what to do.

Basilsbest on June 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

LOL. Yesterday I got a kick out of your response to Obama supporter ddrintn’s oh-so-sincere advice for Romney about how Romney can do better against Obama.

“Pennsylvanians may like the president more than they like Mitt Romney, but the warm and fuzzy feeling gives way to the cold hard truth of a still shaky economy.”

Obama is not likeable. He is a cold, smug, narcissistic, incompetent lightweight who seems indifferent to what’s going on around him. How much longer is the media’s 2008 propaganda painting Obama as a “golden boy saviour” going to reverberate among gullible voters? I have a feeling a lot of these people form their opinions about Obama based on what they’re told they’re supposed to think about Obama, not based on their own individual observations of the man.

bluegill on June 12, 2012 at 9:18 AM

So why hasn’t Team Romney gotten more aggressive about courting Pennsylvanians?

They are. I’m already getting sick of the pro Obama ads on TV.

The Obama people know its close and they are in a position where they need to hold PA, NV, CO and VA because they are probably going to do poorly in FL and the midwest.

If Romney’s losing indies by eight points, how does he get within six overall?

Yeah, that’s suspicious, but there are alot of vestigial Democrats in W-PA who will be voting for Romney. Alot.

forest on June 12, 2012 at 9:21 AM

58% of REPUBLICANS think that Obama is likeable. Who the hell are these people? I find this very hard to believe this.

Winebabe on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

I honestly think Mitt has a better chance in WI, MI and possibly even MN than PA. Something about PA though that makes the GOP lust.

swamp_yankee on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

I live in Pittsburgh and I think Romney could win the state. On the hand, I do realize the human tendency towards self-deluded optimism. There is one fact I can say with certainty about its truth. My neighborhood was like a cult for Obama in 2008. The Obama worship isn’t even on the lips of the most fervent Democrats in 2012. This loss of enthusiasm matters a good bit.

thuja on June 12, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Seems to me Virginia is the key. Win that and most likely Romney wins the election.

Capitalist Infidel on June 12, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Every election cycle pennsylvania gives us head fake. Obama will win. He may only win by less than a percent but he will win and he will get all the delegates. For now it’s best for romney to use his resources in states where he has a better chance.

rogaineguy on June 12, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Every election cycle pennsylvania gives us head fake. Obama will win. He may only win by less than a percent but he will win and he will get all the delegates. For now it’s best for romney to use his resources in states where he has a better chance.

rogaineguy on June 12, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Who here remembers the hunt for California in 2000?

Steve Eggleston on June 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I honestly think Mitt has a better chance in WI, MI and possibly even MN than PA. Something about PA though that makes the GOP lust.

swamp_yankee on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

It’s probably because given it’s heritage, location, and demographics, it doesn’t make sense that it’s blue. Although it does have to be kept in mind that Pennsylvania is a large state. Even though the state as a whole is more like Ohio and West Virginia, it is also bordered by New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland. So there’s no doubt some of those political beliefs seep over into Pennsylvania.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I honestly think Mitt has a better chance in WI, MI and possibly even MN than PA. Something about PA though that makes the GOP lust.

swamp_yankee on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

More delegates.

Steve Eggleston on June 12, 2012 at 9:31 AM

A true enigma is the pathetic plethora of misinformed humanity that continue to believe and support Obama.

rplat on June 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

58% of REPUBLICANS think that Obama is likeable. Who the hell are these people? I find this very hard to believe this.

Winebabe on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

You say Obama is likeable, so you don’t get called a racist?

thuja on June 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

“I honestly think Mitt has a better chance in WI, MI and possibly even MN than PA. Something about PA though that makes the GOP lust.”

Romney is barely competitive here in WI, he’s not going to win. He’s not going to win PA. MI looks to be in play if the last poll is verified by another one.

Just focus like a laser on Virginia and Ohio and Romney will win. Those states ARE the entire election.

gumbyandpokey on June 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Just remember, Toomey was ahead by a very comfortable margin in a midterm wave year for the Good Guys and won a nail-biter against Joe Sestak, who was embroiled in his own bribery controversy going into the election.

The good news is that this will continue to make Obama spend resources defending places that he didn’t think he’d have to defend.

The Count on June 12, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Philadelphia belongs in New Jersey, if Pennsylvania could some how boot that city out, it could make some real progress.

NoDonkey on June 12, 2012 at 9:34 AM

People find Obama extremely likable and charismatic. It stinks, but it’s reality. I think he’s arrogant and condescending, but that is obviously not the majority opinion.

gumbyandpokey on June 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

If Obama calling Pennsylvanians “bitter clingers” wasn’t enough to get them to vote against him, I doubt anything will change them over. Toomey barely won in 2010 and the PA crowd doesn’t seem very pleased so far with the Republican governor.

I’d rather see Romney put money into Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, and Iowa than to waste it in places where the polls are controlled by night-stick swinging new Black Panthers.

Greyledge Gal on June 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Romney is barely competitive here in WI, he’s not going to win. He’s not going to win PA. MI looks to be in play if the last poll is verified by another one.

Just focus like a laser on Virginia and Ohio and Romney will win. Those states ARE the entire election.

gumbyandpokey on June 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Obama’s not winning Ohio. So Romney can focus on Virginia mainly. I mean I know you don’t want to waste money on “barely could be” states, but why waste money on “no chance of losing” states?

That’s what Romney would be doing if he focuses too much on Ohio. I’m not saying neglect Ohio, but Obama’s not winning Ohio.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 12, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Because of it close proximity to New York State, Pennsylvania suffers from political and social matastisis.

rplat on June 12, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Not much about this poll makes sense, including Q’s own analysis. But what the poll doesn’t tell at all may be most important. Romney could be having a groundswell that hasn’t quite surfaced in the data yet. Obama has had a terrible few weeks, and if he doesn’t stanch it soon, its impact is going to begin to manifest in the polls, even in PA. If that happens, it’s going to be shock and panic at Chicago headquarters. I’ll go on record here that I believe this is exactly what is going to happen.

paul1149 on June 12, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Because of it close proximity to New York State, Pennsylvania suffers from political and social matastisis.

rplat on June 12, 2012 at 9:44 AM

That’s what I was getting at by saying that we have to keep in mind that even though historically it’s more like Ohio and West Virginia, it is surrounded by New York, New Jersey, Delaware, and Maryland as well, so some of those political beliefs no doubt seep over the borders.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 12, 2012 at 9:47 AM

A true enigma is the pathetic plethora of misinformed humanity that continue to believe and support Obama.

rplat on June 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

…it amazes me…that this clown can be up ANYWHERE!

KOOLAID2 on June 12, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Obama didnt focus like a laser on OH and FL in 2008.

You can break a campaign’s back, both financially and with morale if you force him to defend traditional territory late in a campaign.

There was nothing more dispiriting than watching Obama hold huge rallies Asheville, NC, and watch polls coming in showing him tied in Indiana.

Forcing to campaign in WI and MI diverts resources from OH, FL, and VA and makes him look undeniably weak, so much so that not even the MSM will be able to spin it.

swamp_yankee on June 12, 2012 at 9:48 AM

You say Obama is likeable, so you don’t get called a racist?

thuja on June 12, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Bingo. To find Obama unlikeable is racist. Heck, the CBC is now telling us that calling him cool is racist.

How do I keep up on avoiding being called a racist?

BuckeyeSam on June 12, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Make him fight for every state.

antisocial on June 12, 2012 at 8:44 AM

I certainly agree with this sentiment. OTOH, I am tired of the perpetual tease of the Keystone State…

kjl291 on June 12, 2012 at 9:56 AM

I’m no expert but that poll has lots to like. Romney’s negatives are lower than Obama’s straight across the board, in every demo, and the number of people who are withholding judgement on him are pretty high. Lots of undecideds, and those are people who know a lot about the President already. They will predictably swing to Romney in droves if the economy stays down. It’s registered voters too, and so the GOP numbers will be better as soon as they swithc to a LV screen, as Ed has educated all of us to know. Pennsylvania has been an average of D+7 in the last five presidential elections, and was D+9.6 in 2008, but the 2010 elections were R+2 for Toomey and R+4 for the House elections. A Republican can very definitely win in Pennsylvania, and Obama has very soft numbers there. If the economy stays where it is today all through the fall I’d bet Romney wins Pennsylvania.

MTF on June 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Try not to get too excited about these results. Consider this.

2004 PA Results
Kerry: 51
Bush: 48

Stoic Patriot on June 12, 2012 at 8:53 AM

Well, all that stat proves is that the Democrats ran an absolutely horrible “candidate” in ’04. One who couldn’t run on his record as a member of Congress so was forced to run on his nonexistent “war record” in a war he and his Party had trashed for decades.

Since O’bama can’t run on his record either, PA is definitely in play.

Del Dolemonte on June 12, 2012 at 9:57 AM

58% of REPUBLICANS think that Obama is likeable. Who the hell are these people? I find this very hard to believe this.

Winebabe on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Lot of Arlen Specter Republicans in southeastern PA and Pittsburgh. The GOP candidates have become more conservative lately, but this is the same state that elected Specter 4 times as a Republican and elected Tom Ridge Governor twice. But I actually think Romney will do well with these voters; many of them are old-fashioned Main Line country club Republicans and they will feel like Romney is one of them. The trick is to energize the more conservative voters in the middle of the state while also appealing to the moderate Republicans in the Philly and Pittsburgh suburbs. This is how Tom Corbett won the governorship.

rockmom on June 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

incumbent Democrat Robert Casey Jr leads his Republican challenger by nearly 20 points in the US Senate race at this time, 51/32.

OT: seriously, I just don’t get this. I realize he’s the son of a popular sentence. But he comes off as the dimmest lightbulb and an incredible wimp. I’d think a state that elects Toomey would have nothing to do with Casey and Obama. Oh well. We have that POS Sherrod Brown.

BuckeyeSam on June 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

OT: seriously, I just don’t get this. I realize he’s the son of a popular sentence. But he comes off as the dimmest lightbulb and an incredible wimp. I’d think a state that elects Toomey would have nothing to do with Casey and Obama. Oh well. We have that POS Sherrod Brown.

BuckeyeSam on June 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

It’s a shame I can’t help kick him out in November as I moved to Missouri in 2009. Oh well, I’m sure it’ll still happen.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 12, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Still flogs the outright LIE about Oprompta’s supposed likability – who are they polling, his family?

PJ Emeritus on June 12, 2012 at 10:19 AM

OT: seriously, I just don’t get this. I realize he’s the son of a popular sentence.

BuckeyeSam on June 12, 2012 at 9:59 AM

Errrr… huh?

Stoic Patriot on June 12, 2012 at 10:21 AM

58% of REPUBLICANS think that Obama is likeable. Who the hell are these people? I find this very hard to believe this.

Winebabe on June 12, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Obama is very likeable. I, for one, like him so much that I posted a portrait of him in my master bathroom. Of course, it is glued to the bottom of the toilet…

Archivarix on June 12, 2012 at 10:23 AM

If Obama calling Pennsylvanians “bitter clingers” wasn’t enough to get them to vote against him, I doubt anything will change them over. Toomey barely won in 2010 and the PA crowd doesn’t seem very pleased so far with the Republican governor.

I’d rather see Romney put money into Wisconsin, Colorado, Michigan, and Iowa than to waste it in places where the polls are controlled by night-stick swinging new Black Panthers.

Greyledge Gal on June 12, 2012 at 9:35 AM

The bitter clinger part of the state will go for Romney. It will all come down to turnout. If the turnout in Philladelphia and Pittsburgh is low, I think Romney could pull it out.

talkingpoints on June 12, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The bitter clinger part of the state will go for Romney. It will all come down to turnout. If the turnout in Philladelphia and Pittsburgh is low, I think Romney could pull it out.

talkingpoints on June 12, 2012 at 10:27 AM

The turnout in Philly is never low. They just don’t really have to go to the voting places to cast their votes…

Archivarix on June 12, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Romney is winning the most important part of this poll….The Economy.

I think this election will prove once for all how important that one issue is and will always be.

It is only June and all polls now are useless….

William Eaton on June 12, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Color me confused.

PA is coal country, no? Obama is trying openly to kill coal? Yes? And yet, PA wants MORE Obama?

It’s like young people, minorities and women preferring Obama despite the clearly established fact that no groups have suffered more under Obama than these 3.

The past week has been HORRIBLE for Obama in every conceivable facet. In the past week Obama’s Approval Ratings on Gallup have rallied 5 points.

There is some HUGE HUGE MASSIVE HUGE disconnect going on out there I cannot understand. Are people rallying to Obama as a sympathetic figure because he is so completely and utterly incompetent?

mitchellvii on June 12, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Do Americans really prefer likability over competence?

Really?

mitchellvii on June 12, 2012 at 10:33 AM

One thing to keep in mind with current polls. At least half of those polled are not yet paying attention – so they say they want the status quo – Obama.

When it says Obama 46-40, what that really means is Romney 54-46 as almost all undecideds break for the challenger when voting day comes.

Any state where Obama is polling less than 50% right now is in play.

mitchellvii on June 12, 2012 at 10:36 AM

…it amazes me…that this clown can be up ANYWHERE!

KOOLAID2 on June 12, 2012 at 9:48 AM

In my very college-y neighborhood, I am reasonably sure that gays, abortion, the perception of environmentalism, and “mean” Republicans are why the college kids and most of the adults favor Obama. I don’t think they have a clue about economic issues. But they, including 18 year old heterosexual boys, do have the Human Rights Campaign equality stickers on their laptops.
And then there is the identity politics getting Obama the black and hispanic vote, and we have Obama’s voting coalition.

thuja on June 12, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Who here remembers the hunt for California in 2000?

Steve Eggleston on June 12, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Exactly.

de rigueur on June 12, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Philadelphia belongs in New Jersey, if Pennsylvania could some how boot that city out, it could make some real progress.

NoDonkey on June 12, 2012 at 9:34 AM

As a New Yorker I wiash we could auction NYC off to the highest bidder. Its the only way to change anything in this state.

magicbeans on June 12, 2012 at 10:49 AM

“The past week has been HORRIBLE for Obama in every conceivable facet. In the past week Obama’s Approval Ratings on Gallup have rallied 5 points.”

That’s the likability factor coming into play.

I know nobody wants to hear it, but I don’t think there’s any way Obama loses when the public obviously wants to like him so badly they will give him the benefit of every doubt. No bad news hurts him.

gumbyandpokey on June 12, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The problem with Pennsylvania is that Philly is huge, and contains a lot of Democrats. And that is very hard for any Republican to overcome.

Nevertheless, if Romney spends money in the Philly market, maybe he gets some traction in NJ (half the state is in the Philly market). If he can cut into Obama’s leads in both states, at worst Obama will have to spend money (and for NJ, that means the expensive NY market, which covers the Northern Part of the state). So, at best, maybe Romney can win one or both of those states, but even if he cant, he should be able to force Obama to spend money to hold those states, and neglect other states, like Iowa and Wisconsin.

milcus on June 12, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Does the PA voter ID law have real teeth and will it be enforced where needed? Could make the difference.

Uncledave on June 12, 2012 at 9:06 AM

We just got voter ID. Maybe that will help with Philadelphia, who knows? I am in a conservative county directly north of Pittsburgh, and the democrats here have been really interested in the GOP primary. I don’t think Obama is as popular as currently thought.

Night Owl on June 12, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Any word on the Black Panthersplans to get out the vote like the last election? That was Philly, too, wasn’t it?

PJ Emeritus on June 12, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Romney has ways to win PA in 2012.

1. Get a good number of Reagan Democrats to go his way in the energy-producing markets (Pittsburgh, Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, Altoona/Johnstown). Hit Obama on his war on coal and the libs’ war on fracking.
2. Get the natural GOP base out big in the Harrisburg/Lancaster/Lebanon/York and nearby rural areas.
3. Bring the Catholic vote, which is very significant in the Philly burbs, along on the Obamacare mandate. This is a big thing in the archdiocese now… almost every parish is getting the word from the pastors that this is a bad thing (which, of course, it is).

I could break this down a lot farther, if’n anyone’s interested.

But I maintain that PA isn’t a lost cause.

either orr on June 12, 2012 at 11:37 AM

Ive lived in PA my whole life and have been disappointed in election after election as Pennsylvanians gave their electoral votes to Clinton, Gore, Obama, and even John Kerry. The state picked the Democratic hack Ed Rendell over Football Hall of Famer and all around awesome guy Lynn Swann for Governor, and elected complete loser Bob Casey Jr (and it looks like he will win again somehow).

My point, the only time Pennsylvania takes on a tinge of red these days, is in wave elections. So if Romney wins the state its because he has utterly destroyed Obama, making it less a battleground and more a sign of a landslide win.

Making Obama waste resources here would be good, but Romney isnt winning PA unless he has wrapped up 270 electoral without it, anyway.

Bob Casey Jr?!?!? Seriously PA? The guy hides for 6 years at a time. He is a party hack who has a bit of name recognition. He couldnt debate a ham sandwich and look animate. I am disappointed they GOP couldnt find someone to beat him handily.

The Pennsylvania GOP sucks.

alecj on June 12, 2012 at 11:59 AM

So why hasn’t Team Romney gotten more aggressive about courting Pennsylvanians?

Because it would be a complete waste of time and money. Obama will not lose Pennsylvania….or Michigan either for that matter.

xblade on June 12, 2012 at 12:20 PM

“Welcome to Pennyslvania, the brain damage State!”.

ardenenoch on June 12, 2012 at 12:35 PM

Pennsylvania and Michigan have been saturated with Kool-aid.

jqc1970 on June 12, 2012 at 12:45 PM

Bob Casey Jr?!?!? Seriously PA? The guy hides for 6 years at a time. He is a party hack who has a bit of name recognition. He couldnt debate a ham sandwich and look animate. I am disappointed they GOP couldnt find someone to beat him handily.

The Pennsylvania GOP sucks.

alecj on June 12, 2012 at 11:59 AM

Before voting in the primary, I watched parts of the debate on Youtube. Steve Welch was the only guy who had a shot at winning Pennsylvania. But Welch won the endorsement of the state Republican party and the support of Governor Tom Corbett, and the GOP primary voters went all Delaware/Christine O’Donnell on us. So yes the Pennsylvania GOP sucks.

thuja on June 12, 2012 at 1:40 PM

IMHO Pennsylvania is “in play”.

It is very similar demographically to the Upper Midwest states of Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Wisconsin with its large percentage of right-of-center working-class whites.

This demo (aka “Reagan Democrats”) were supposed to be the pathway to the “New Permanent Democratic Majority”. But, Obamanomics is pushing this group away… if the national polls are accurate… in droves.

I don’t know if PA can be won by Romney in November. Much will depend upon his share of the suburban vote. I know I risk the wrath of some, but, honestly only a moderate/conservative like Romney had a chance with the moderate/conservative suburban vote in many large states.

The combination of the “Reagan Democrat” and “moderate/conservative suburban” demos suggests PA is worth an effort by Team Romney.

LaserBeam on June 12, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Even as someone in the Philly burbs who is surrounded by anecdotal signs of a Romney victory, I don’t see Romney winning the state unless he also wins every other swing state (except perhaps Wisconsin, Michigan, Oregon, and NM, if you consider those swing states). Blame whichever Democratic client group you love to hate, or just the Philadelphia vote printing machines and their Black Panther security guards: it makes no difference. I’ve simply seen this Lucy/Football act too many times to think otherwise.

However, I think that Romney should definitely contest the state for that same exact reason. The flip side to the inevitable disappointment is that the state is likely to remain, as it always does, a credible threat to go red in the polls up until election day. This means that Obama will have to pour heavy resources into the state because it’s a sudden death state for him.

HitNRun on June 12, 2012 at 6:17 PM