Gallup: Obama’s 10 points off his 2008 pace with Jewish voters

posted at 6:01 pm on June 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

Since he knows more about Judaism than any other president, you would think he’d be uniquely equipped to craft a winning pitch.

Big deal or no?

Why it might be a big deal: 64 percent among Jewish voters is a very, very weak showing for a modern Democratic nominee. Compare and contrast. O took 78 percent of their vote four years ago; Kerry, Gore, and Clinton all cracked 75 percent, and Jimmy Carter raked in 71 percent when he was elected in 1976. The only nominees who failed to reach 70 percent in the past 35 years were, er, Dukakis, Mondale, and Carter in 1980, the last of whom nearly lost the Jewish vote to Reagan. In fact, The One’s take of 64 percent here matches what Dukakis got against Bush in 1988. Good omen.

Why it might not be a big deal: Just because he’s at 64 percent today doesn’t mean he’ll be at 64 on election day. Some Jewish Democrats who are disaffected now will come home, just as disaffected non-Jewish Dems will. Then again, Romney’s already at 29 percent, fully seven points more than McCain ended up banking on election day 2008. If he can simply hold onto them, Obama has a problem. Another point, though: Apart from Florida, which I think most people expect to go red this year regardless, is there any swing state where the Jewish population is large enough that a 10-point dip in Obama’s support might matter? Here’s a population breakdown. There are only two purple states (again, except for Florida) where the number of Jewish residents exceeds two percent. One is Pennsylvania, which is a decidedly bluish shade of purple, and the other is … Nevada, which is key to Rove’s “3-2-1″ approach to winning the election. Hmmmmmm. Maybe this is a biggish deal after all.

And of course, Jews aren’t the only significant religious minority in Nevada. More from Gallup:

Mormons make up roughly six percent of the population in Nevada, so that spike isn’t insignificant. Nevada was always going to be a major play for Team Mitt because of the Mormon presence there plus the fact of the state’s famously high unemployment rate, but now that we know O’s considerably off the pace with Jewish voters too, it looks irresistible.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

OY!!

leftnomore on June 8, 2012 at 6:06 PM

like you said, they’ll still vote for the idiot…

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 6:06 PM

He has talks with Iran stalled. The left doesn’t care if they get nukes. The Israelis are divided. There is a big crunch coming at the end of this week. A war could wreck the world economy.

This is when I am glad someone else is POTUS.

I shall pray for him on this.

IlikedAUH2O on June 8, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Exit question: Why do athiests care so much about the Jewish vote?

hhhhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm

Eph on June 8, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Alternate NYT headline: Continuing Poor Bush Economy Has Driven 10% of Jews to Racial Hatred.

Kataklysmic on June 8, 2012 at 6:08 PM

Oy vey!

Del Dolemonte on June 8, 2012 at 6:09 PM

13% of Nevada Mormons are mentally challenged? I did not know that.

AndrewsDad on June 8, 2012 at 6:10 PM

It’s a big deal in Pennsylvania. Population in the Philly suburbs skews Jewish and Catholic.

rockmom on June 8, 2012 at 6:10 PM

NONCOMMITTAL 2012!

Pragmatic on June 8, 2012 at 6:11 PM

13% of Nevada Mormons are mentally challenged? I did not know that.

AndrewsDad on June 8, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Indeed. See: Reid, Harry and ilk. (It’s okay to drop the 2nd “m” when referring to that 13%)

Kataklysmic on June 8, 2012 at 6:12 PM

It’s a big deal in Pennsylvania. Population in the Philly suburbs skews Jewish and Catholic.

rockmom on June 8, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Pittsburgh, too!

honsy on June 8, 2012 at 6:12 PM

Instead of talking about “thingamajigs”, perhaps Barry could woo Jewish voters back by talking about “tchotchkes”.

Buy Danish on June 8, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Oy, gewalt!

jimver on June 8, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Only 10?! And he still has a solid majority. Oy vey! What will it take for them to see he is no friend of the Jew?, in Israel or out?

curved space on June 8, 2012 at 6:18 PM

And Oblamer is still up by 12, amazing….

/

hillsoftx on June 8, 2012 at 6:18 PM

If I were the WH I would not allow any photos to be released of Obama next to a real leader like Bibi — every single one exposes Obama as the punk he is.

Dark Star on June 8, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Can we just be honest for a second..he won because he’s black. That excitement has worn off, and now he’s going to have to compete on a level field. It’s something he’s probably never had to do before. There, I said it.

phxconservative on June 8, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Can we just be honest for a second..he won because he’s black. That excitement has worn off, and now he’s going to have to compete on a level field. It’s something he’s probably never had to do before. There, I said it.

phxconservative on June 8, 2012 at 6:19 PM

Stay right there, triangulating your position… Okay go get the door bell we want to ask you a few questions…

Golf Ball Sized Drone.

2Tru2Tru on June 8, 2012 at 6:25 PM

13% of Nevada Mormons are mentally challenged? I did not know that.

AndrewsDad on June 8, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Ever hear of “Harry Reid”?

riddick on June 8, 2012 at 6:33 PM

So, a scant 10% of formerly obama-supporting Jewish voters have suddenly realized that obama is a flaming anti-Semite, a sworn enemy of Israel, a sworn enemy of Judaism and a sworn enemy of all Jewish peoples? But, how many of these same voters will still vote for him in November?

Pork-Chop on June 8, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Yes but how is Romney polling among the dead? For some reason Republicans seem to switch to Democrat after death.

crosspatch on June 8, 2012 at 6:35 PM

He’ll always have Chicago.

SouthernGent on June 8, 2012 at 6:40 PM

So 64% of American Jews agree with what Jeramey Wright taught Obama in his 20 years at his “church”. It used to be that people like that were called Nazis.

VorDaj on June 8, 2012 at 6:41 PM

NONCOMMITTAL 2012!

Pragmatic on June 8, 2012 at 6:11 PM

..jeez! Times are sure getting tough for this creep, aren’t they?

The War Planner on June 8, 2012 at 6:41 PM

If Jews like both Bibi and Bammie, could we trade leaders with Israel?

Steve Z on June 8, 2012 at 6:46 PM

The only “religious” group that supports Obama more than Jews is Muslims.

VorDaj on June 8, 2012 at 6:47 PM

I know I’m at least partially responsible for two Jewish ’08 Obama votes switching to Romney votes this fall. My wife and father-in-law have already said they’re voting for Mitt.

The fact that I have been loudly, incessantly and obnoxiously trashing Obama for the last four years I’m sure has nothing to do with the matter…. ;-)

Not that it’ll make any difference here in the People’s Democratic Republic of Maryland, but I’m willing to take a small moral victory in this case.

nukemhill on June 8, 2012 at 6:49 PM

These numbers result in a marginal gain for Romney is 0.8%.

Obama won Nevada by 12 points.

Seems to me he’ll have to flip a similar percentage of non-Mormon, non-Jewish whites and Hispanics. And even that won’t be enough, because 10% of the voters will be blacks and I don’t see Obama losing 10 percentage points on the margin with African-Americans.

Nevada is a very difficult state from a demographic perspective. Obama’s bottom there is around 48% or so. That was Kerry’s result. Gore had 46%, but whites were a fairly larger part of the electorate back then. Romney will need a depressed Hispanic turnout and then to run the table with moderate independents and whites.

joana on June 8, 2012 at 6:52 PM

A huge jewish group wrote a letter to the LDS (Mormon) church asking them to sanction Romney for what he did to the Jews in Mass.

So a bit surprised he even got 10 points. If Hillary takes over for Obama would imagine this would be Hillary +20 over Obama.

Romney was no friend of the Jews in Mass or Catholics.

Steveangell on June 8, 2012 at 6:56 PM

like you said, they’ll still vote for the idiot…

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 6:06 PM

Not so sure about that. The headline and the text seems to imply a religious component to their thinking but economic issues count more with the average Jewish voter than their religion, which for most of them is practically non-existent.

Their stock portfolios have taken big hits these last couple of years and they know why that is, too.

Cleombrotus on June 8, 2012 at 6:56 PM

The only “religious” group that supports Obama more than Jews is Muslims.

VorDaj on June 8, 2012 at 6:47 PM

And atheists and other God-haters. Ever notice that?

Cleombrotus on June 8, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Without the Jews he will lose in a landslide because they control the Tri-Lateral Commission, the Bilderberger Forum, and the Illuminati High Command.

In short they run the universe.

/Alex Jones

CorporatePiggy on June 8, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Yes but how is Romney polling among the dead? For some reason Republicans seem to switch to Democrat after death.

crosspatch on June 8, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Dunno about ROmney, but I know fo sho THe Whine is not that popular with the dead anymore, which I believe spells doom for him in Nov…case in point, WI where not enough of them raised to save his beloved unions and their collective Dim azzholes :)…so yeah, at this point it’s safe to say that he is not polling well with da dead…ad to that that the redistricting beoach, plus the higher number of Rep governors who will oversee the elections, and not even the biggest zombie resurrection will save 0′s azz…

jimver on June 8, 2012 at 7:05 PM

He’s smellier than maatjes herring.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on June 8, 2012 at 7:07 PM

More seriously, the proper benchmark for the Jewish vote, as I wrote in 2004, is 75-25 Dem. Anything less than that is a major shift, no matter what it looks like to the normal world. This would be earth-shattering if Obama were to get only 60% of the Jewish vote.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on June 8, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Mr. Bibi looks a little like Khrushchev in that picture.

Punchenko on June 8, 2012 at 7:17 PM

…I’ve never heard anyone say this in my life before…but I’ve never heard of “Dumb Jews!”…I guess there are!

KOOLAID2 on June 8, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Jews wouldn’t vote for a Jewish republican, so they sure as hell ain’t going to vote for a goy one.

keep the change on June 8, 2012 at 7:26 PM

It is not a question of being smart vs. dumb. Jews aren’t dumb. But they do see the world very differently and have very different priorities. Ergo why they vote liberal.

keep the change on June 8, 2012 at 7:28 PM

10% of the Jewish vote, 10% off the youth vote, 10% of the lefty vote, 20% off the working class vote, 10% off the independent vote, it all adds up. And in a race we are assured will be close, it will add up fast. Folks, it ain’t gonna be close. Every day Teh Won is losing ground in some state or with some costituency. The guy’s gonna be lucky to have a pair of pants by the time the election comes at this rate.

smellthecoffee on June 8, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Wait for it. . . .barack will start wearing a yarmulke and covert to Judaism.

DuctTapeMyBrain on June 8, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Without the Jews he will lose in a landslide because they control the Tri-Lateral Commission, the Bilderberger Forum, and the Illuminati High Command.

In short they run the universe.

/Alex Jones

CorporatePiggy on June 8, 2012 at 7:04 PM

Pssh! Everyone knows the Queen runs those organizations in Britain’s feeble attempt to rule the world! Haven’t you read your Carroll Quigley? Jews know absolutely nothing about empire — it’s a Gentile plot from start to finish!

/Every other conspiracy theorist

Punchenko on June 8, 2012 at 7:41 PM

And John Adams could speak and read Hebrew…but he’s a dead white guy. Obama’s a Racist and Anti-Semite!

kirkill on June 8, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Obama will lose the Jewish vote because he’s a dreck en cup and a real schmuck. Mom never trusted those goyisha cups, and she never even knew the shiteel occupying the White House today.

NOMOBO on June 8, 2012 at 7:52 PM

The guy’s gonna be lucky to have a pair of pants by the time the election comes at this rate.

smellthecoffee on June 8, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Obama is a deceiver, a dissembler
His trousers are alight
From what pole or banner
Shall they dangle in the night?

PercyB on June 8, 2012 at 7:56 PM

Any Jew contemplating a vote for this schmuck is either an Israel-hating anti-Semite (case in point: Manhattan and Hollywood crowd) or a senile grandma afraid of being thrown off a cliff by Paul Ryan (case in point: most of my mother’s senior community population in West Palm Beach, FL).

Archivarix on June 8, 2012 at 7:56 PM

And John Adams could speak and read Hebrew…but he’s a dead white guy. Obama’s a Racist and Anti-Semite!

kirkill on June 8, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Alexander Hamilton went to Jewish school and used to boast that he learned the Ten Commandments in Hebrew. Yeah … he wasn’t a President, but he WAS one of “all those Presidents on the dollar bills”, so the Dog-Eating Retard considered him to have been President.

All this is aside from the fact that the Ineligible Indonesian Imbecile doesn’t know anything better than anyone. He is a blithering idiot of the highest magnitudes with an ineptitude in all pursuits unsurpassed by any normal person. Just the fact that someone so incredibly stupid would stand up in public and make any claims about anything that requires more than two brain cells is just amazing.

One thing I will say for the Dog-Eater, he is more intimate with the concept of chutzpah than anyone.

ThePrimordialOrderedPair on June 8, 2012 at 8:00 PM

The only “religious” group that supports Obama more than Jews is Muslims.

VorDaj on June 8, 2012 at 6:47 PM

And atheists and other God-haters. Ever notice that?

Cleombrotus on June 8, 2012 at 7:02 PM

He did claim in one of his crappy books that one of his skills is making very different groups believe that he is one of them.

slickwillie2001 on June 8, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Now that they’ve seen who he is, or at least a bit of who he is, as opposed to knowing nothing about who he is (see 2008)… why only off by 10%?
-

He did claim in one of his crappy books that one of his skills Skittles is making very different groups believe that he is one of them.

slickwillie2001 on June 8, 2012 at 8:27 PM

-
Hey, I’m just in a mood… ; )~

RalphyBoy on June 8, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Gee, I wonder why he is 10 points down with Jews?! Could it be he just freed up $192 million & sent it to the PLA & their terrorist allies, HAMAS, so they can buy more rockets they continually fire into Israel? Maybe it is because he helped the Muslim Brotherhood seize power in Egypt? Blows off Israel’s PM? Aids & abets their enemies? Leaked info & got allies killed? All I have to say is ‘It is about friggin’ time!’ I have never understood why Jewish people supported this Muslim-sympathizer/aider/abetter. Hopefully they have woken up& see the truth. A vote for Obama is a vote to BETRAY Israel & undermine our ties/commitment to support them.

easyt65 on June 8, 2012 at 9:15 PM

Romney was no friend of the Jews in Mass…

Steveangell on June 8, 2012 at 6:56 PM

What did Romney do to the Jews in Mass?

Gladtobehere on June 8, 2012 at 9:31 PM

A huge jewish group wrote a letter to the LDS (Mormon) church asking them to sanction Romney for what he did to the Jews in Mass.
So a bit surprised he even got 10 points. If Hillary takes over for Obama would imagine this would be Hillary +20 over Obama.
Romney was no friend of the Jews in Mass or Catholics.
Steveangell on June 8, 2012 at 6:56 PM

I haven’t heard what Romney has done to the Jews, that he should be sanctioned by the LDS Chursh? Bibi is his good friend. He is fair and descent to all people. Do you know he paid people in his business before he paid himself and as a result in the beginning there wasn’t much money left for him? I would like a reference to your outrageous statements. He would never make Bibi or any Jew walk out the back of the white house or leave them during a meeting so he could go upstairs and have dinner. 0b0z0′s a joke. 0b0z0 has no manners.

I know many Mormons in Nevada and they feel the same about 0b0z0 as I do, which is not at all. I hate to even hear that “he’s a nice guy!” Not he’s not.
Anyway back to my point. If there is 13% of Mormons who will vote for 0b0z0 it’s because of the Mexican immigrants. What I will never understand is they left their country because of the socialist gov and the violence and no jobs. So it makes me furious that they come here and bring that socialism with them. Have they learned NOTHING!

Bambi on June 8, 2012 at 9:44 PM

I will continue to do my best to talk to Jews in Pittsburgh about Obama’s policy towards Israel. It’s what I can do to turn Pennsylvania red.

thuja on June 8, 2012 at 10:03 PM

It’s important to not fall into the false dichotomy trap as I’ve often seen. That trap goes something like this:

“They (blacks|jews|leftists|women|hispanic|environmenalists|what have you) aren’t going anywhere else, so they have to vote Democrat.”

No, they don’t. They can vote third-party or choose to not vote at all, as multiple black pastors have decided while declaring they will be preaching about the evils that Obama has suddenly pushed.

So, yes, Obama is losing a percentage of women, a percentage of Jews, a percentage of blacks, a percentage of Mormons, a percentage of Hispanics, a percentage of the youth, a percentage of the old, a percentage of the college educated, a percentage of the uneducated, a percentage of this, a percentage of that.

Not all of them have to switch to Republican (but it wouldn’t hurt). They have to just not re-vote for Teh Won. That alone will cause many swing states to swing back Republican.

John Hitchcock on June 8, 2012 at 10:15 PM

No, they don’t. They can vote third-party or choose to not vote at all, as multiple black pastors have decided while declaring they will be preaching about the evils that Obama has suddenly pushed.

John Hitchcock on June 8, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Great strategy there! Yes, let’s remind most Democrats that they vote Democratic because of hateful bigotry of some Republicans. Espousing gay-hatred isn’t going to get Romney 270 electoral votes.

thuja on June 8, 2012 at 10:25 PM

The Jew will vote for him no matter what. Those types are the dumbest smart people on earth.

Your Mamma loves me on June 8, 2012 at 10:31 PM

Thuja, when Obama pushes very decidedly anti-Christian claptrap, what do you expect Christian-type leaders to do? Just give up and throw their morals and principles in the garbage heap?

The point is, Obama is busily shedding votes that he most desperately needs to bitterly cling to if he wants to get re-elected. And those votes he is busily shedding don’t have to switch to the Republican choice, either.

John Hitchcock on June 8, 2012 at 10:56 PM

There is a HUGE difference between American Jews and Israeli Jews. To even compare them would be like comparing black Americans to Ugandans. Meaning it doesn’t matter to American Jews that Chairman Obama hates Israel. I don’t know too many Israeli Jews who sympathize with Palestinians but I sure know a lot of American Jews who do.

The Notorious G.O.P on June 9, 2012 at 3:45 AM

He did claim in one of his crappy books that one of his skills is making very different groups believe that he is one of them.

slickwillie2001 on June 8, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Demagogues and other liars are particularly skilled in phrasing things in such a way that anyone can read whatever they want into them. They cannot abide clarity or precision.

Cleombrotus on June 9, 2012 at 6:03 AM

like you said, they’ll still vote for the idiot…

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 6:06 PM

THIS Jew is a cradle conservative who has NECER voted for a dim for higher than state-wide office. *I voted for Jesse White in 2010. Sue me*

annoyinglittletwerp on June 9, 2012 at 7:33 AM

Bambi on June 8, 2012 at 9:44 PM

I don’t have a problem with Romney’s attitude toward the ‘tribe’.

annoyinglittletwerp on June 9, 2012 at 7:35 AM

Why do Republicans bother to court the Jewish vote?
60% is still a landslide.
The Jewish vote will break only one way, landslide Democrat.
Republicans need to concentrate their time money and effort on more productive strategies. Chasing the jewish vote is a unicorn hunt.

notalemon on June 9, 2012 at 10:51 AM

is there any swing state where the Jewish population is large enough that a 10-point dip in Obama’s support might matter

If Mitt pick Christie as his Veep, then NJ will be in play. And the Jewish vote there does matter as well.

annoyinglittletwerp on June 9, 2012 at 7:35 AM

There is some manufactured outrage over some food program that wouldn’t pay extra for special diets or something like that. It’s a big, fat nothing burger (no cheese, please).

MJBrutus on June 9, 2012 at 11:07 AM

The Jew will vote for him no matter what. Those types are the dumbest smart people on earth.

Your Mamma loves me on June 8, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I’ve had to conclude that the Jewish religion is suffering from the same thing as the Catholic religion – a large number of people who identify with the religion but don’t really give a darn about following it. Because even a child could see how much Obama obviously despises them.

MelonCollie on June 9, 2012 at 1:48 PM

13% of Nevada Mormons are mentally challenged? I did not know that.

AndrewsDad on June 8, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Belly laugh. Thanks.

Prufrock on June 11, 2012 at 7:52 AM

What did Romney do to the Jews in Mass?

Gladtobehere on June 8, 2012 at 9:31 PM

I swear I am not making this up…
This. Read the whole article. Tempest in a teapot.

Prufrock on June 11, 2012 at 7:56 AM