Wow: Romney edging Obama 46/45 … in Michigan

posted at 1:01 pm on June 7, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Old and busted: Questions about whether Barack Obama can salvage Wisconsin.  New hotness: Questions about whether the man who keeps claiming to have saved the American automaking industry can hold Michigan.  According to a new poll commissioned by the Detroit Free Press and four television stations from EPIC-MRA, Mitt Romney now edges Obama 46/45 in this Democratic and union bastion (via Jim Geraghty):

President Barack Obama’s popularity in Michigan has slipped in recent months, leaving him in a dead heat with Republican challenger Mitt Romney, according to a new poll of state voters by EPIC-MRA of Lansing.

The poll, released this morning to the Free Press and four TV stations, shows Romney leading Obama 46%-45%, a reversal from the last EPIC poll in April which showed Obama ahead 47%-43%.

Obama’s personal and job approval numbers also have slipped, with 46% of Michiganders saying they have a favorable opinion of the president, and 41% approving of the job he’s doing.

EPIC co-founder John Cavanagh said the softening in support for Obama is likely related to a robust TV advertising campaign by pro-Romney PACs which have been critical of his handling of the economy. Perhaps most troubling for the Democratic president is a decline in support from independent voters, Cavanagh said.

Democratic pollster PPP had Obama up 14 in May.  PPP’s Tom Jensen put the state in the solid category for Democrats.  This looks … less than solid.  The Free Press didn’t provide a link to the poll data, so all of the usual caveats on samples apply, but the FP did note that the pollster surveyed 600 likely voters between June 2nd-5th.  That comes entirely after the latest jobs report, which may very well have done a significant amount of damage to Obama in a state already hammered by unemployment.  And just for a little independent confirmation, National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar tweeted that these numbers match what he’s heard about GOP internals.  Looks like it might just be a trend.

Speaking of Wisconsin, We Ask America has a new poll out there as well.  They got the eventual margin of victory correct in the recall election in their penultimate survey, but their last survey missed the mark, showing a 12-point Walker lead the day previous to the election.  Today they show Obama out in front of Romney in a sample of 1270 likely voters in a survey taken entirely yesterday, but only by five points, and with Obama under 50% at 48/43.  Romney leads among independents by two:

As we’ve seen elsewhere, President Obama is twice as likely to receive  support from Republicans (11%) than Romney is from Democrats (4%), and Independent voters are evenly split. Note that when we asked political party affiliation, this sample had 37% Democrats, 33% Republicans and 30% Independents. We also note with interest the gender gap between the two candidates…a result that is echoed throughout our recent privately conducted polls elsewhere in the nation.

Clearly, Walker’s success will keep Wisconsin on the list of possible bellwether states–something that many considered unlikely a few months ago. And if these numbers hold up, there will undoubtedly be a trove of Obama voters who also supported Gov. Walker in his recall election.

It looks like those states previously considered as solid Democratic holds might be … evolving on the issue.  The big question for Team O: What’s your path to 270 without Michigan?  What’s the path to 270 if Obama even has to contest Michigan?


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Wow nothing!

KOOLAID2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

The Taxmageddon Obama recession is just beginning to be felt. He’s going to lose 40+ states.

It’s not going to be close folks.

wildcat72 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

JugEars will carry Detroit…the surronding area maybe not so much

KOOLAID2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

The Doom Song

The Rogue Tomato on June 7, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Hardcore pwn ?

lorien1973 on June 7, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Just keep bringing the good news…

OmahaConservative on June 7, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Evolution :)… I like that :)..

jimver on June 7, 2012 at 1:05 PM

JugEars will carry Detroit…the surronding area maybe not so much

KOOLAID2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

He’ll carry what’s left of Detroit. Pyongyang is probably in better shape than Detroit.

Punchenko on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Yawn! another poll.

gerry-mittbot-tired of getting excited by polls

gerrym51 on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

Nov. 6 will not be close, not even remotely, in spite of most all the polls claiming so, all summer/fall.

I can’t wait to see Michael Tomasky’s reaction.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

If Obama is tied in Wisconsin and Michigan, it means states like Indiana, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Nevada, etc are gone.

Obama will lose in a landslide.

kevinkristy on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I’m hoping America’s kegging up on the Olde Preference Lager and we’ll soon see it cascade down on Obama’s scalp.

JEM on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

If Romney is really going to win Michigan, we can stop talking about a Romney win and start talking about a massive blowout and whether we can get to 60 Senate seats.

It’s too early for that kind of talk though.

Kohath on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Don’t dare to celebrate prematurely.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

I can’t handle so many good ews in one day :)… I wonder what Clinton has to say about how things are ‘evolving’ in MIchigan? Or, ahem, he’s too senile to comment :)…

jimver on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

If Michigan’s GOP governor can have the same success as Scott Walker in Wisconsin, this could get interesting. A recall effort has already hung it up as having no chance.
I think Obeyme’s toast.

Dexter_Alarius on June 7, 2012 at 1:08 PM

What’s your path to 270 without Michigan?

Obowma will have to go all the way down…

Seven Percent Solution on June 7, 2012 at 1:08 PM

I’ve been saying Romney had a chance in MI for several months. (I know, pat on the back.)

The thing I’m most concerned about is the voter fraud that will almost assuredly occur in my state. (Watch the UAW get election tasks “delivering” ballot boxes, and Detroit to have a turnout of 175%.)

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:08 PM

“Shouldn’t you all be wondering why Romney isn’t up by 70?” – ddrintn

Chuck Schick on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Also there’s this:

Michigan Governor Snyder recall effort is now cancelled.

cheetah2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Kalamazoo here. The Tea Party in this state is well organized and never more enthusiastic.

I’ll buy everyone a bottle of Bell’s if we can pull this off.

Greek Fire on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

The big question for Team O: What’s your path to 270 without Michigan? What’s the path to 270 if Obama even has to contest Michigan?

There is no path to victory. Michigan should be bluer than Wisconsin. So if the former is in play, so is the latter(which we already assume in the wake of Tuesday’s results). So is Pennsylvania for that matter. Even if Obama holds onto these states, it means Ohio is almost assuredly gone as that’s a traditionally red-leaning state. Indiana and North Carolina are goners. Florida is as red as Ohio and is also likely gone. Same with Virginia.

That means Romney need only flip Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, or New Mexico, and he’s the next President. He could sweep all of those if this poll is any indication.

Doughboy on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Don’t dare to celebrate prematurely.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Not celebration, just schadenfreude :)…

jimver on June 7, 2012 at 1:11 PM

Michigan poll: Obama’s position on gay marriage is as politically damaging as Romney’s on bailout.

http://gop12.thehill.com/2012/06/poll-romney-obama-tied-in-michigan.html

tetriskid on June 7, 2012 at 1:11 PM

I can’t wait to see Michael Tomasky’s reaction.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

I can’t wait to see Ed Schultz’ reaction. Hope MS-LSD lays in a few AEDs for Election Night.

Erase and correct; I hope they NEED to. I don’t want to count chickens and all that.

rah1420 on June 7, 2012 at 1:13 PM

New hotness: Questions about whether the man who keeps claiming to have saved the American automaking industry can hold Michigan.

Guess Romney taking that credit worked out for him. :)

cajun carrot on June 7, 2012 at 1:13 PM

BTW, Centrists and independents here, by and large, know the taxpayer (and investors) got hosed on the auto bailouts, and they have formed a distrust of Odumbo.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:14 PM

The conventional wisdom on Michigan is the GM/Chrysler bailout gives Obama the edge. That issue is 50/50 at BEST around here. I have lived here all my life and there are plenty of us who believe the UAW and other unions are killing this state, the bailout was just a payoff to them. Romney can compete here, his name still carries weight.

echosyst on June 7, 2012 at 1:14 PM

George W. Romney’s ghost to drive lefties nuts…and Alinsky too.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Tuesday was a clear indication that any state that elected a Republican governor and/or state house since 2009 ain’t about to return to blue for 2012… the cake is baked…

phreshone on June 7, 2012 at 1:15 PM

Same with Virginia.

Doughboy on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I just heard over the radio that Obama is down to +5 from +8 in the latest Q-Poll.

Punchenko on June 7, 2012 at 1:15 PM

cheetah2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

Awesome…

OmahaConservative on June 7, 2012 at 1:15 PM

cheetah2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

From that article.

the group said it will focus on a long-term effort to form a progressive think tank

Gotta find a way to hang on to that money they got I guess.

cajun carrot on June 7, 2012 at 1:16 PM

Over the next few months, if Mr. Romney’s lead in Michigan widens, and if polls show him taking the lead in PA, VA, WI, etc., we may have to start a fund to pay for padded rooms for Maddow and Schultzie.

GrannyDee on June 7, 2012 at 1:17 PM

At this rate, if this keeps up, I don’t care how much of a narcissist this idiot is – Urkel may get the “for the good of the party” tap on the shoulder and Shillary gets put in as the closer around Labor Day. Biden gets a one way ticket to Wilmington, and someone else (Bayh?) gets drafted as the running mate.

I would never have dreamed it earlier, but this is unraveling so rapidly you have to wonder what these people will do to attempt to stay in power. O’bama (Del Dolemonte TM) is pretty much at the point of no return now.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Michael Moore picked a bad week to try to give up stress-eating.

BHO Jonestown on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

JugEars will carry Detroit…the surronding area maybe not so much

KOOLAID2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

IIRC, Detroit’s population has dropped to the level of about 1925, and they’re closing and consolidating schools right and left because of decreased enrollment.

Wethal on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

JugEars will carry Detroit…the surronding area maybe not so much

KOOLAID2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

.
He’ll carry what’s left of Detroit. Pyongyang is probably in better shape than Detroit.

Punchenko on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

.
: )

listens2glenn on June 7, 2012 at 1:19 PM

Keep the pressure up on 0bama, but there is opportunity to coattail on Romney and get more republicans into the House and Senate.

We really really need a GOP supermajority in the Senate by 2014, if there is to be any kind of chance to dismantle the progressive agenda that’s bankrupting the country.

Rebar on June 7, 2012 at 1:20 PM

Grab ‘em by the scrotum and throw ‘em in the Potomac.

The whole bloody lot, all at once.

JEM on June 7, 2012 at 1:21 PM

Sorry, but I just can’t bring myself to get this hopeful.

Incidentally. If I start claiming Willard has a shot in Jersey, everyone better head for Bishop’s bunker cause the world is coming to an end.

Lost in Jersey on June 7, 2012 at 1:21 PM

John king and chuck todd wont be changing their maps yet

Maybe denial?

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:21 PM

If Romney is really going to win Michigan, we can stop talking about a Romney win and start talking about a massive blowout and whether we can get to 60 Senate seats.

It’s too early for that kind of talk though.

Kohath on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

I’d be happy if we just got far enough past 50 so Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins aren’t the swing votes.

Wethal on June 7, 2012 at 1:22 PM

UAW and other unions are killing this state, the bailout was just a payoff to them. Romney can compete here, his name still carries weight.

echosyst on June 7, 2012 at 1:14 PM

I, too, am a lifelong Michigander. The UAW not only killed our state–it killed the US auto industry! (Goose and golden eggs.)

Don’t know about his “name” carrying weight. If your meaning alludes to his father once being governor, I think that’s ancient history. It’s Odumbo that’s giving Romney a chance.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Over the next few months, if Mr. Romney’s lead in Michigan widens, and if polls show him taking the lead in PA, VA, WI, etc., we may have to start a fund to pay for padded rooms for Maddow and Schultzie.

GrannyDee on June 7, 2012 at 1:17 PM

November 6th can’t come soon enough.

On Tuesday I served as a poll worker in California. I will NOT be working the election in November. I’ll be on my couch watching each state announced, and with popcorn in a bowl and champagne on ice.

aunursa on June 7, 2012 at 1:22 PM

The Free Press has tried to bury this story on their front page of their web site. It was listed toward the bottom at first…then completely vanished for a while, before moving up to another section.

The Free Press is our Very liberal newspaper here in Detroit.

As a Detroiter, I think the tide is turning against Obama. The Wisconsin Recall fail will let certain Union Members know its OK to not go along with the Union Party Line.

I think the Reagan Democrats are waking up….

GadsdenRattlers on June 7, 2012 at 1:22 PM

What’s the path to 270 if Obama even has to contest Michigan?

Hey. States 51-57 are still in play, ain’t they?

ted c on June 7, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Road trip to Michigan and Wisconsin
stat

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Questions about whether the man who keeps claiming to have saved the American automaking industry can hold Michigan.

I wonder how Slurpee sales are doing in Michigan?

ted c on June 7, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Lol Ted

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:24 PM

IIRC, Detroit’s population has dropped to the level of about 1925, and they’re closing and consolidating schools right and left because of decreased enrollment.

Wethal on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

It’s the same thing that’s been recently happening in CA, though for slightly different reasons. Also, the exodus from Detroit started a long time ago. (You should see it on a weekend morning, with no sport being played that day–ghost town.)

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:25 PM

The easiest of all political conspiracies – a failed assassination attempt on Obama, or possibly a successful attempt on Biden, with traces inevitably leading to a racist group which will be promptly “connected” to the Tea Party by the ever-helpful media – will throw additional 10-15% of support the donks’ way.

No plot is too nefarious if it keeps Obama his chair, remember?

Archivarix on June 7, 2012 at 1:25 PM

JugEars will carry Detroit…the surronding area maybe not so much

KOOLAID2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:03 PM

IIRC, Detroit’s population has dropped to the level of about 1925, and they’re closing and consolidating schools right and left because of decreased enrollment.

Wethal on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

Detroit to cut half of its streetlights

MobileVideoEngineer on June 7, 2012 at 1:25 PM

IIRC, Detroit’s population has dropped to the level of about 1925, and they’re closing and consolidating schools right and left because of decreased enrollment.

Wethal on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

It’s true. I hear first-hand horror stories from a friend who teaches in the DPS system. Third-world conditions: no heat in winter, running out of TP, corrupt officials, you name it. And she keeps voting Dem and cursing Snyder. Whaddya do?

hoosiermama on June 7, 2012 at 1:26 PM

There is no path to victory. Michigan should be bluer than Wisconsin. So if the former is in play, so is the latter(which we already assume in the wake of Tuesday’s results). So is Pennsylvania for that matter. Even if Obama holds onto these states, it means Ohio is almost assuredly gone as that’s a traditionally red-leaning state. Indiana and North Carolina are goners. Florida is as red as Ohio and is also likely gone. Same with Virginia.

That means Romney need only flip Nevada, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, or New Mexico, and he’s the next President. He could sweep all of those if this poll is any indication.

Doughboy on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I”m sure he can flip Nevada, Iowa maybe, not so sure about the other three…though I’d love to see Co red again…

jimver on June 7, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Detroit to cut half of its streetlights

MobileVideoEngineer on June 7, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I was just going to link that myself.

Great minds, and all that!

GrannyDee on June 7, 2012 at 1:27 PM

The Free Press has tried to bury this story on their front page of their web site. It was listed toward the bottom at first…then completely vanished for a while, before moving up to another section.

The Free Press is our Very liberal newspaper here in Detroit.

GadsdenRattlers on June 7, 2012 at 1:22 PM

Lol. Yeah, and the freep (the actual paper) publishes–what?–four days a week? (Not that many bird-owners here in MI.)

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:28 PM

DO NOT WORRY DEMOCRATS (Communists)!!!

Ben Bernanke/The Fed will move in to save Obama.

PappyD61 on June 7, 2012 at 1:28 PM

Michigan Governor Snyder recall effort is now cancelled.

cheetah2 on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

They’re learning…

Attempting to recall Walker, whose policies WORKED, only pissed off people into voting for him in greater numbers than in 2010.

Attempting to recall Snyder, who has had similar success in fixing Michigan, would likely end up turning Snyder into a GOP rock star too.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Lot of celebration here for a one-point outlier lead in June…

cjw79 on June 7, 2012 at 1:29 PM

The easiest of all political conspiracies – a failed assassination attempt on Obama, or possibly a successful attempt on Biden, with traces inevitably leading to a racist group which will be promptly “connected” to the Tea Party by the ever-helpful media – will throw additional 10-15% of support the donks’ way.

No plot is too nefarious if it keeps Obama his chair, remember?

Archivarix on June 7, 2012 at 1:25 PM

And for those who believe that these theories belong to fantasyland, it worked like a charm in Israel. The lefties were losing by a major landslide (~20%) prior to Rabin’s assassination (which, some say, was not even an assassination at all), managed to equalize the polls within a week, and only lost by a slim margin due to their new leader’s ineptitude.

Learn from history or repeat it, folks.

Archivarix on June 7, 2012 at 1:30 PM

What’s your path to 270 without Michigan?

Reality.

hillsoftx on June 7, 2012 at 1:32 PM

Lot of celebration here for a one-point outlier lead in June…

cjw79 on June 7, 2012 at 1:29 PM

I think it’s news because everyone thought Odumbo would be up by 10 points.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Lot of celebration here for a one-point outlier lead in June…

cjw79 on June 7, 2012 at 1:29 PM

You’re right. Obama getting outraised by 18 million clams is far sweeter.

Chuck Schick on June 7, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Don’t dare to celebrate prematurely.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Yep. Keep the eye on the prize. Dems and their minions are only going to get more desperate and who knows what they’ll try and how many stupid people will buy it.

kim roy on June 7, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Rasmussen has it tied in Colorado…

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/colorado/election_2012_colorado_president

PA Guy on June 7, 2012 at 1:16 PM

If Colorado is in play, it’s over. I always assumed(naively it turns out) that that state was a lost cause. Obama won it comfortably in 2008 and it didn’t trend red the way other traditionally GOP states did in 2010. Granted, the state Republican Party had a lot to do with that, but bottom line is it seemed to be solidly Democrat.

If Colorado is that close, that means Nevada and New Mexico are all but gone. Iowa is probably gone as well, but that state is impossible to predict.

Doughboy on June 7, 2012 at 1:34 PM

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:33 PM

Posted too soon.
MI has been “safe blue” in every electoral map that’s been published. (Will that be updated to purple?)

It may just be a poll in June, but it’s good news for people who love the USA.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Michigan and Wisconsin in play… wow.

Chaz706 on June 7, 2012 at 1:35 PM

Mr thin skin will make an appearance soon

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:36 PM

What’s the path to 270 if Obama even has to contest Michigan?

Obama has to take 2 of 3 from Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, and both Michigan and Ohio are dead heats as of now.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 1:37 PM

Mr thin skin will make an appearance soon

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:36 PM

He recently had a fundraiser hosted by Mike Ilich and his wife. (Little Skeezers (awful pizza), Det Tiger, Det Red Wings). So, they’re probably tapped.

(Made me sick to my stomach to see it. No, I didn’t eat Ilich’s pizza.)

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:39 PM

Michael Moore picked a bad week to try to give up stress-eating.

BHO Jonestown on June 7, 2012 at 1:18 PM

You owe me a keyboard!

SailorMark on June 7, 2012 at 1:39 PM

If Romeny wins Michigan, that means he is gonna win Ohio.

Assuming Rubio or West is on the ticket to bag Florida, Romney wins.

Why?

The only other state Obama could possibly hold/win is Virginia and that would pull it even at 269-269 with the House of Reps or statehouses given the tie-breaker to Romney.

General Rubio conquers Florida while the main thrust is the midwest: Michigan/Ohio

Conclusion: Ohio is the key, but if Romney is winning Michigan, he is gonna win Ohio is my estimate.

To O: Game over!

KirknBurker on June 7, 2012 at 1:40 PM

I can’t wait to see Michael Tomasky’s reaction.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:06 PM

It might be healthier for the Left and their allies in the press and entertainment for Obama to lose in an electoral rout rather than a narrow loss. A narrow loss would engender conspiracy theories and cries of partisan racism, while a big loss gives the Left permission to be honest about Obama’s failings as a President and candidate.

Jurisprudence on June 7, 2012 at 1:41 PM

I think the conventional wisdom about the bailouts helping Obama in Michigan are wrong.

I would be fairly resentful if my “neighbor” got a bailout, and I didn’t. Especially since those worthless UAW workers probably average close to 6 figures to go get either high or drunk in the parking lot on their lunch break.

Think about it, how many actual GM and Chrysler auto workers were “saved” by the bailouts? MAYBE 7% of Michigan’s voters?

BradTank on June 7, 2012 at 1:42 PM

If Colorado is that close, that means Nevada and New Mexico are all but gone. Iowa is probably gone as well, but that state is impossible to predict.

Doughboy on June 7, 2012 at 1:34 PM

I graduated high school with someone who is a big feminist lefty that lived in DC and worked for the Obama campaign or some leftist organization. A couple of months ago she posted on Facebook about how she was being transfered to Iowa to help out with the campaigning there and how she was so excited. She pretty much hasn’t been on Facebook since. She was a semi-regular poster who always talked about leftist stuff and gloated. So I know it’s anecdotal, but her not commenting tells me that something’s up in Iowa.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 7, 2012 at 1:43 PM

while a big loss gives the Left permission to be honest about Obama’s failings as a President and candidate.

Jurisprudence on June 7, 2012 at 1:41 PM

Huh?!?
I’ll believe that when I see it.

More like a big loss might let us avoid rioting in the streets.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Gotcha redcrow

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Think about it, how many actual GM and Chrysler auto workers were “saved” by the bailouts? MAYBE 7% of Michigan’s voters?

BradTank on June 7, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Besides the resentment, they (of course) didn’t bother to think of the long-term consequences. I’ve always owned American cars. I would never even consider buying a GM or Chrysler–ever again!

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:46 PM

Jurisprudence they’ll cry racism either way

cmsinaz on June 7, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Was the poll being taken while MI labor was being bussed to WI?

MeatHeadinCA on June 7, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Huh?!?
I’ll believe that when I see it.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Dems tend to eat their own when they lose, with Gore being the exception due to the Florida mess.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Think about it, how many actual GM and Chrysler auto workers were “saved” by the bailouts? MAYBE 7% of Michigan’s voters?

BradTank on June 7, 2012 at 1:42 PM

Besides the resentment, they (of course) didn’t bother to think of the long-term consequences. I’ve always owned American cars. I would never even consider buying a GM or Chrysler–ever again!

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:46 PM

I think the bailout may be a net loss for Obama here.

The UAW was bailed out, but the non-union parts of GM, mainly Delphi, and companies making after-market parts for GM cars got screwed between the bankruptcy terms and dumb crap like “Cash For Clunkers”.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Let this news energize the base.

Attack Attack Attack

Never get complacent.
Never back off.

The Rock on June 7, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Brad Tank, I would be willing to guess that the UAW jobs “saved” in the bailouts here in MI were offset by the jobs lost when Bammy screwed all of the auto dealers out of their franchises and forced them to close. I bet half the dealerships in MI closed in the bailout.

I live on the west side of the state. Grand Rapids is becoming more influential. There is a diversified economy here, reasonable housing prices, and in the outskirts, good schools.

Michigan went red in 2010. 68% of the state Senate is red, and a red majority, though not as big, in the house.

They took care of redistricting this year, so the few seats that flipped back and forth will probably stay red this decade. They moved Battle Creek from the district in the middle south part of the state that kept flipping and put it in Justin Amash’s district in Grand Rapids. While that makes Justin’s district less red, it is still red enough for him to get re-elected. Also, he is one of the few tea party freshmen who didn’t forget who got him elected – the tea party. He votes against the spending and budget increases. And the district that kept flipping that Battle Creek used to be in is now more safely red.

Benton Harbor has no political clout. Traverse City is in a red district. The health care vote seat lost by the Dem (district 1) will probably also stay red this year.

2 long term dems got redistricted together and are competing for the remaining seat between them.

Romney’s name just might get him some blue collar votes in the SE part of the state, but on the west side, it is so conservative, that Bammy will only get the elite lefty and inner city votes over here.

Michigan is very much in play now, especially after the WI vote. Snyder (gov) did some public employee compensation changes, I don’t remember the details. Our public union employees had a hissy fit for a day or 2, but no lasting demonstrations. I don’t know if they eliminated dues checkoffs and made public union membership voluntary. If they haven’t, I hope they will.

There is a strong bench running against Stabenow in the GOP Senate primary. The top 3 candidates are all pretty decent options for this state.

If Obama loses this state, more than likely Stabenow will get booted, too.

I hope Romney spends money here. Sarah Palin is popular here, he should send her here to do some rallies, once he grovels to her for allowing his peons to trash her for 4 years. She alone could carry the state for him, just by showing up and making speeches about Bammy’s record.

The tea party groups across the state have been busy putting up candidates for various offices at the local and state level, as well as organizing as precinct chairs and state convention delegates.

I know our state government is doing something about the state worker retirement benefits because my mom, a retired public teacher, gets alarmist emails about some votes coming up in the legislature that will affect her medical benefits. I think they might be trying to divorce the state from the forced purchase of insurance for the retired teachers from a company controlled by the unions. I am not sure. Her medical benefits are amazing, so I imagine the state pays a fortune for them.

karenhasfreedom on June 7, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Dems tend to eat their own when they lose, with Gore being the exception due to the Florida mess.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Perhaps. But, win or lose in November, Odumbo will “go down” in history as one of the greatest presidents, ever.

“Washington, Lincoln, FDR(!?), Odumbo” is what we’ll see.

And, the part about liberals being honest is baffling to me. It will be pinned on some aspect of the campaign–oh, and gun-clinging, Bible thumping racists.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:56 PM

I’d honestly like to know how many Michigan residents work at a GM or Chrysler factory. I bet it’s an incredibly small number.

The MSM would have you believe 50% of the state works for GM or Chrysler and it saved Michigan.

BradTank on June 7, 2012 at 1:58 PM

The UAW was bailed out, but the non-union parts of GM, mainly Delphi, and companies making after-market parts for GM cars got screwed between the bankruptcy terms and dumb crap like “Cash For Clunkers”.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 1:53 PM

And let’s not forget about the investors, who basically had their “contracts” changed by the federal government ex post facto to cater to the unions.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 1:59 PM

WOLVERINES!
Don’t know if conservative money on my side (Devos etc.) are invented in Mittens or not. You would expect they would be but I haven’t heard. They did invent heavily in Walker’s recall, that’s for sure. Cascade for Mittens! -It’s gotta start somewhere.

AmeriCuda on June 7, 2012 at 1:59 PM

If Obama loses this state, more than likely Stabenow will get booted, too.

Which is what I’m hoping for across multiple states.

Just about every potential swing-state has a Dem senate seat up for grabs include Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, etc.

An Obama loss may not deliver ALL of those seats, but it certainly raises the chances of a Reagan 1980 result where a poor showing by Carter flipped the Senate for 4 years.

teke184 on June 7, 2012 at 2:00 PM

Her medical benefits are amazing, so I imagine the state pays a fortune for them.

karenhasfreedom on June 7, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Good post.
I’ll bet the emails aren’t completely honest about what’s being proposed. (I’d doubt that retirees would be affected by changes to public union benefits, etc.)

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 2:02 PM

I certainly hope this trend continues to grow. I’m sick of Michigan being leftist leaning (falling over into the leftist liquor barrel) simply because unions have a stranglehold on jobs in this state, and equally sick of the mafia running the roads commission and MDOT in tandem with the unions.

Teachers don’t teach valuable things in public schools here….and we have Carl Levin. Have I described the outer circle of hell well enough?

Perhaps with the populations of the largest cities in Michigan evaporating (who wants to live in landfills like Detroit, Flint, Pontiac, etc) those entitlement frenzied areas will collapse and give way to people that actually want to move forward with their lives and further the economy, state, and country instead of imagining they live in Mississippi in 1825.

I’m sick of it, it’s time to turn the page on this failure that is socialism.

Wolfmoon on June 7, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Doughboy on June 7, 2012 at 1:09 PM

I was going to comment but Doughboy said it all.

If Michigan is seriously in play then Obama has no path to victory because the much closer swing states NC, IN, OH, FL, VA, CO, NV and NM will all go to Romney, plus all the McCain states.

Game over.

Missy on June 7, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Wow, lots of Hot Air Michigan peeps here. Go BLUE!! (U of M, not for a dem LOL )

Besides, I went to Purdue.

karenhasfreedom on June 7, 2012 at 2:03 PM

If Romney is really going to win Michigan, we can stop talking about a Romney win and start talking about a massive blowout and whether we can get to 60 Senate seats.

It’s too early for that kind of talk though.

Kohath on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

I hate the games these polling companies play.

This is bogus.

I remember them pulling the same junk back in 2008 with McCain.

They just do this to get ratings and entertain us like the Romans use to do with Gladiators.

Steveangell on June 7, 2012 at 2:03 PM

For those out of state, in the 1950 census, Detroit was about 75% white and had 2.1 million people. The 2010 Census, not sure any white people live there anymore, they began to move out in droves after the riots in the 60′s, which were really bad. Now the city has about 715K people. They even tried to appeal the count because apparently if you fall below 750K, you lose extra federal benefits of some sort. So I am not sure if the Bammy run census invented 35K people out of thin air to get Detroit over that thresh hold.

karenhasfreedom on June 7, 2012 at 2:07 PM

I remember them pulling the same junk back in 2008 with McCain.

I don’t remember any polling that had McCain up in a state as traditionally blue as Michigan as early as June. Perhaps you have a source.

Missy on June 7, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Don’t dare to celebrate prematurely.

Schadenfreude on June 7, 2012 at 1:07 PM

Agree. “Don’t get cocky!”

dogsoldier on June 7, 2012 at 2:08 PM

The MSM would have you believe 50% of the state works for GM or Chrysler and it saved Michigan.

BradTank on June 7, 2012 at 1:58 PM

When I was a kid (in the 80′s), a ton of my friends’ dads worked at the Big Three. In the last thirty years, many of those jobs went to Canada and Mexico. (So, you’re right–it is a small number.)

AS A WARNING…that link is to the W0rld S0cialist Web Site!! I was going to include a quote or two so you didn’t have to go over there, but it’s got a lot of good stuff in the article pertaining to your question.

RedCrow on June 7, 2012 at 2:08 PM

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