Quotes of the day

posted at 10:51 pm on June 7, 2012 by Allahpundit

With five months until Election Day, Barack Obama faces a grim new reality: Republicans now believe Mitt Romney can win, and Democrats believe Obama can lose … Last week’s anemic job-creation and economic-growth data was sandwiched between two Bill Clinton specials: in one television interview, the 42nd President lauded Romney’s business record as “sterling”; in another, he veered from the Obama line on the extension of Bush-era tax cuts … The failure to unseat Wisconsin’s Republican governor Scott Walker in a recall election was another bad sign for Democrats since it will rev up conservatives nationwide, including the kind of millionaires who gave big bucks to Walker’s effort … Veteran Democratic strategists from previous presidential bids and on Capitol Hill now wonder if the Obama re-election crew is working with the right message … The White House remains on a rough political trajectory, with a potentially adverse Supreme Court decision on the Obama health care law looming, additional bad economic news from Europe coming and more worrisome polling pending

***

If Republican Mitt Romney is inaugurated as president in January, history may look to June as the month in which President Obama’s fate was sealed.

This may be the month, seen in retrospect, in which it became clear the economic winds that propelled Clinton to a second term won’t be at Obama’s back. Administration officials barely tried to spin last week’s dismal jobs report, an acknowledgment that there was nothing to brag about…

Back home, the Supreme Court is putting finishing touches on a decision on the constitutionality of Obama’s health care overhaul and its individual mandate. Obama has signaled that he will run against Washington at large, the Republican House of Representatives in particular, and maybe even the Court itself; if the Court strikes down the health care overhaul, Obama will have a new target but at the cost of his signature domestic achievement…

Walker’s win added to the perception that Romney has momentum. Senior Republicans were once quietly resigned to the likelihood of another four years under Obama; that mood has changed.

***

President Obama’s problem now isn’t what Wisconsin did, it’s how he looks each day—careening around, always in flight, a superfluous figure. No one even looks to him for leadership now. He doesn’t go to Wisconsin, where the fight is. He goes to Sarah Jessica Parker’s place, where the money is.

There is, now, a house-of-cards feel about this administration

Any president will, in a presidential election year, be political. But there is a startling sense with Mr. Obama that that’s all he is now, that he and his people are all politics, all the time, undeviatingly, on every issue. He isn’t even trying to lead, he’s just trying to win.

***

Democrats are having a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad June. But if it’s time to start panicking, most of them haven’t gotten the memo.

Despite a spate of negative news, Democrats nationwide, both publicly and privately, seem remarkably Zen about their party’s prospects in November and unwilling to take out any frustration on their man in the Oval Office just yet. “Is there any anxiety on our side? Yes,” said Jerry Crawford, a longtime Democratic activist in Iowa. “Should the other side be feeling at least as much anxiety? Yes. There’s plenty of concern everywhere for both sides.”…

Democrats are less worried about Obama’s performance than they are about factors out of their control, such as how Republicans will handle crucial upcoming debates on jobs, spending, taxes, and the debt ceiling; the prospect of a global economic slowdown, which they know Obama cannot control and which could easily derail his hopes for a second term; and whether their party can stay competitive with Romney on fundraising front…

Democrats acknowledge that Obama has a nuanced sell to make to voters discouraged by how long economic misery has persisted. “It’s hard to get people to remember how bad things could’ve gotten—that’s a tough message to send,” said John Wertheim, a former Democratic Party official in New Mexico.

***

Swing voters had much more negative opinions of President Obama’s job performance than other voters. In fact, their opinions were almost as negative as those of Romney supporters. Only 11% of swing voters approved of Obama’s job performance compared with 6% of Romney voters. In contrast, 92% of Obama voters approved of the president’s job performance…

These findings suggest two different conclusions about the likely results of efforts by the Obama and Romney campaigns to persuade swing voters to support their candidate. From the standpoint of the Obama campaign, efforts at persuading swing voters are likely to be unproductive and could even backfire. These voters have a decidedly negative view of the president and are very unlikely to vote for him. The best the Obama campaign can hope for is that most of these swing voters will not bother to turn out in November.

In contrast, the Romney campaign would appear to have a good chance of winning most of these swing voters over to their side by November based on their negative opinions about President Obama’s job performance. Such opinions are typically a very strong predictor of presidential voting decisions, especially when an incumbent president is running for reelection. The greater challenge for the Romney campaign may be getting these discontented swing voters to turn out given their very low enthusiasm about voting. This suggests that a strategy combining persuasion and mobilization may be needed.

***

The first look at the 2012 FiveThirtyEight presidential forecast has Barack Obama as a very slight favorite to win re-election. But his advantage equates to only a two-point lead in the national popular vote, and the edge could easily swing to Mitt Romney on the basis of further bad economic news.

Mr. Obama remains slightly ahead of Mr. Romney in most national polls, and he has had a somewhat clearer advantage in polling conducted at the state level. Mr. Obama would be about 80 percent likely to win an election held today, according to the model.

However, the outlook for the Nov. 6 election is much less certain, with Mr. Obama having winning odds of just over 60 percent. The forecast currently calls for Mr. Obama to win roughly 290 electoral votes, but outcomes ranging everywhere from about 160 to 390 electoral votes are plausible, given the long lead time until the election and the amount of news that could occur between now and then.

***

So let’s do some similar scenario planning for 2012, when another tight election is expected. It is also expected to be decided by less than 3 percentage points, just like 2004. And today, nearly every public opinion poll shows the race within the margin of error between President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.

In a very tight race this November, Obama could lose the popular vote, and win the electoral college. Let me say that slightly differently: Romney could win the popular vote by more than 1 million votes and lose the electoral college to Obama by a margin of 272 to 266. What a difference in talking points that would mean for the two parties compared with the 2000 presidential election controversy.

Let me show how you I arrived at this scenario. Obama won the popular vote by a national percentage of just over 7 points in 2008. If we subtract 8 points from the margin in every state, Romney would have a little less than a 1-point victory nationally (which gives you the 1 million vote margin for him in the popular vote).

***


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Comment pages: 1 4 5 6

4Grace on June 8, 2012 at 4:01 AM

I dont do mass transit in Fl..u will get scabies or something else fun like lice.
Fl doesnt have any good mass transit honestly. At 10 in Cali, I was going down town-fun. Not the same here.

Okay My friend- I gotta ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Thx for hanging. Your the best!

Night Crow and Nov.

And again Sherm..eff urself.

XOXO

B more- should u read this in the am-love u man.

Grace I owe ya one. :)

bazil9 on June 8, 2012 at 4:08 AM

Goodnight, John Boy RedCrow. ;)

4Grace on June 8, 2012 at 4:08 AM

Grace I owe ya one. :)

bazil9 on June 8, 2012 at 4:08 AM

Not at all. Had a blast.

Goodnight bazil.

4Grace on June 8, 2012 at 4:11 AM

I’m out, too. Goodnight!

4Grace on June 8, 2012 at 4:12 AM

RedCrow on June 8, 2012 at 4:01 AM

My favorite Cure tune. But it does give me the creeps.

novaculus on June 8, 2012 at 4:13 AM

Sorry, can’t go for the Dire Straits original after I saw this…

ellesar04 on June 8, 2012 at 4:17 AM

ellesar04 on June 8, 2012 at 4:18 AM

Beautiful.

novaculus on June 8, 2012 at 4:27 AM

Free Your Mind

novaculus on June 8, 2012 at 4:34 AM

Mornin’, gang.

My take.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 6:33 AM

good friday morning HA crew!

hate to count our chickens, but dang it sure feels good….

go mitt, don’t get complacent, none of us should get complacent…

this is war

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 6:50 AM

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 6:33 AM

congrats KJ

many blessings and keep fighting the good fight

read it folks!!

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 6:53 AM

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 6:53 AM

Thank you, ma’am! I truly appreciate your support.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 6:54 AM

The race is beginning to play out just as I had been saying all through the primaries. Mitt is putting states in play that no other candidate would have had a chance at. From Michigan to Wisconsin we’re seeing red and purple states becoming hotly contested. We see Colorado in play and if Mitt goes with Chris Christie all of a sudden NJ will be very much in play and PA become a tough battleground.

Mitt may not win all of those states but he is forcing Obama to spend campaign time and money just to keep his tenuous grasp on them. Thanks to Mitt, this game will be played entirely on the blue side of the field. Obama is being forced in to a purely defensive fetal position and he will shatter in to a million shards before this contest is over.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:10 AM

Congratulations, KJ! They wish that Matt Drudge was their only problem. Muahaha!

Naturally Curly on June 8, 2012 at 7:15 AM

Obama is being forced in to a purely defensive fetal position and he will shatter in to a million shards before this contest is over.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:10 AM

heh

mr thin skin will rear his ugly head in short order

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 7:19 AM

Naturally Curly on June 8, 2012 at 7:15 AM

Thank you!

Bruti – This political ideology pendulum swing in America is thanks to Mitt?

Nope. Conservatism rules…again.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:25 AM

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 7:19 AM

He’s been trying. For some reason, “Vote for me because it’s not my fault” hasn’t been a winning line :-)

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:26 AM

Bruti – This political ideology pendulum swing in America is thanks to Mitt?

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:25 AM

Not what I said. The pendulum is swinging because of Obama. However, any other GOP candidate would have stopped that pendulum dead in its tracks. Mitt is getting the message out to places, such as the states that I named, where it would never have reached but for him.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:29 AM

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:29 AM

Reagan reached those states with a Conservative message 40 years ago.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:31 AM

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:26 AM

and yet will continue to use it

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 7:32 AM

Flora Duh on June 8, 2012 at 7:27 AM

good linky

cmsinaz on June 8, 2012 at 7:33 AM

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:31 AM

Then vote for Reagan.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:33 AM

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:33 Did I say that I was not going to hold my nose and vote for the Massachusetts Moderate?

Do you have any more advice for Obama, as you gave him in 2008 on Daily Kos?

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:39 AM

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:39 AM

Do you ever get bored with the same, old nonsense? No really, don’t you even bore yourself?

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:42 AM

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:42 AM

LOL. I’m just wondering why you never apologized to HA readers for your behavior when you first arrived, when you insulted and cursed out everyone here and proclaimed that you hated Hot Air posters.

I mean, you’re trying sooo hard to fit in, now. We’ve all watched you morph from a Liberal into a “fiscal Conservative” overnight.

Quite remarkable, actually.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:47 AM

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 7:47 AM

I’ve never been a liberal. I’ve always been fiscally conservative and independent on most other issues.

I’ve done better than apologize for behaving as you continue to do. I’ve forgiven you. Unclench brother.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:55 AM

’ve done better than apologize for behaving as you continue to do. I’ve forgiven you. Unclench brother.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 7:55 AM

You’ve done better? How

Behaving as I do? You mean like a Reagan Conservative?

You’re not my brother. I’m not an atheist, nor am I a poser.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 8:01 AM

ICYMI, here’s Trey Gowdy (SC) and Louie Gohmert (TX) ripping Holder a new one at yesterday’s hearings.

Gowdy to Holder: U.S. Attorney General Should Not Be Guided By Politics

Rep. Gohmert rips Holder into shreds: Your job is JUSTICE Mr. Attorney General!

Flora Duh on June 8, 2012 at 8:03 AM

Rep. Gohmert rips Holder into shreds: Your job is JUSTICE Mr. Attorney General!

Flora Duh on June 8, 2012 at 8:03 AM

Rep. Gohmert: Your job is JUSTICE, Mr. Attorney General.

DOJ Holder: *barely audible* SOCIAL justice.

Rep. Gohmert: What?

DOJ Holder: *barely audible* SOCIAL justice.

Rep. Gohmert: What?

DOJ Holder: nothing…

Fallon on June 8, 2012 at 8:18 AM

I fear massive, massive election fraud, aided by Eric Holder’s DOJ, of course.

WannabeAnglican on June 8, 2012 at 8:18 AM

Yes. Romney is courting the anti-Obama vote. Too bad there is no pro-Romney vote out there.

Spliff Menendez on June 8, 2012 at 8:28 AM

A little late, alas, had to work at work last night :(

tom daschle concerned on June 8, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Another touchy-feely evening featuring the late night crew.

Yuck!

Sherman1864 on June 8, 2012 at 3:17 AM

You got a tune to go with that?

Bmore on June 8, 2012 at 9:40 AM

From one of my all-time favorite albums:

Maggot Brain

novaculus on June 8, 2012 at 3:02 AM

The tune of the night award goes to novaculus for this little gem. Nice job!

Bmore on June 8, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Behaving as I do? You mean like a Reagan Conservative?

No silly. Holding a grudge and treating others with belligerence.

You’re not my brother. I’m not an atheist, nor am I a poser.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 8:01 AM

We’re all brothers. He, who you call your savior says so. Unclench brother. Follow the example of he who you say you worship.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 5:08 PM

No silly. Holding a grudge and treating others with belligerence.

You’re not my brother. I’m not an atheist, nor am I a poser.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 8:01 AM

We’re all brothers. He, who you call your savior says so. Unclench brother. Follow the example of he who you say you worship.

MJBrutus on June 8, 2012 at 5:08 PM

My Savior warned against wolves in sheep’s clothing.

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 6:09 PM

Congratulations PBHO!

MJBrutus on May 2, 2011 at 7:14 AM

kingsjester on June 8, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Off Topic: That wonderful rage-stare Obama photo on the front page link to this post — Can anyone point me to a link to a high resolution and uncropped version of that pic?

wvose on June 9, 2012 at 1:13 PM

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