Pennsylvania: Obama 48, Romney 36?

posted at 6:41 pm on June 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

The exit poll from Pennsylvania four years ago showed turnout of 44D/37R/18I. The sample for today’s new poll showing O out to a double-digit lead is … 50D/37R/10I. Anyone think that three years of watching Hopenchange in action is actually going to turn more Democrats out this year than last time? Me neither.

But for the record:

Two caveats to that. One: The poll was conducted from May 29 through June 4, which means that it includes only a few days of fallout from Friday’s terrible jobs report. Two: If you’re thinking that the growth in Obama’s lead from February to June can be explained by this month’s bad sample, think again. The February sample was even more lopsided — 51D/37R/10I. The topline numbers may be off but there’s reason to think things are trending O’s way there.

But why? Could be that wavering Democrats in Pennsylvania are finally gearing up for the big campaign and landing back in Obama’s column. But this might have something to do with it too. O’s overall job approval rating in the state:

He’s down sharply in the “poor” column and up a total of five points combined in “excellent” or “good.” Now, his job approval rating on the economy specifically:

Again, down sharply in “poor” and up sharply in “good,” despite a string of unimpressive jobs reports and then a disastrous one just last Friday. It’s true that Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate is below the national average and has been trending slightly downward since February, but is that enough to sustain him when economic analysts are starting to scream about a new recession? Hmmm. Maybe Politico was right when it found a silver lining for The One in the fact that some key swing states are faring better economically these days than you might expect.

No telling what Mitt’ll do in the state after last night’s turbo boost from Wisconsin, but as of a week ago, it sounds like he was ready to pass on Pennsylvania:

At the beginning of May, the state’s own GOP chairman, Rob Gleason, said Romney told him personally that he doubted he could win the state. Gleason didn’t appear to disagree vehemently.

“I don’t think anyone thinks we can carry Pennsylvania, I don’t think even Romney thinks we can win Pennsylvania,” he told The Allentown Morning Call…

Understanding why the GOP candidate might be skeptical about Pennsylvania isn’t difficult. A Republican presidential nominee hasn’t triumphed there since George H.W. Bush in 1988, and, as mentioned, Obama won easily there four years ago despite a heavy investment of time and money from the McCain campaign. The state has more than a million more registered Democrats than Republicans, and an early May poll from Quinnipiac University found the president leading over Romney 47 percent to 39 percent.

On the other hand:

Romney will compete heavily in Pennsylvania, [top Romney advisor David] James said. The campaign started slowly because of the state’s late primary, he said, but “June is our big growth month.”

Andrew Reilly, chairman of the Delaware County GOP, acknowledged the Democrats’ statewide voter registration advantage. But he said Romney is the first Republican presidential candidate in 20 years who fits well with the area’s GOP electorate.

“Pennsylvania is a challenge,” Reilly said. “I think Romney’s got a shot.”

I think he’ll probably decide late, in mid-September or so, on whether to take a shot at it. He doesn’t need Pennsylvania to get to 270 but The One probably does, so if Romney and conservative Super PACs build up a financial advantage, that might be one place where they spend a bit to try to draw O’s team into playing defense there and spending money of their own. Exit question: What are we to make of the trend here?


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The exit poll from Pennsylvania four years ago showed turnout of 44D/37R/18I. The sample for today’s new poll showing O out to a double-digit lead is … 50D/37R/10I.

So it assumes Republicans are no more motivated and Democrats are even more motivated than 2008. Uh huh. Okay then.

amerpundit on June 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

Why don’t they just go with ‘Obama wins Pennsylvania’!!??

BigWyo on June 6, 2012 at 6:44 PM

you know how to make a provocative headline.

if this is true, then Americans really are as stupid as Obama thinks they are.

kirkill on June 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Dang it……my BS detector just brOke……

meh.

RealMc on June 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

The skew is nuts…Pennsylvania is most definitely in play. Romney has to make Obama sweat the ‘safe’ states to win.

AUINSC on June 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Every poll for the next few days is going to show Barry “The Destroyer” Obama really doing well to offset the REAL POLL held last night in Wisconsin.

jukin3 on June 6, 2012 at 6:47 PM

I’ve never given much credence to polls, ever, and after yesterday’s fictional exit polls, I give them even less credence today.

stukinIL4now on June 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Obama won PA by 10 points last time. Any poll that has him winning by more than that this time- as this one does- is garbage.

Jon0815 on June 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Are you addicted to being an eyeore AP? Does the sun not shine in your world if you aren’t eyeoring it up at least once a day?

Franklin and Marshal does a God awful job of polling as indicated by their track record. And to release polls with %50 D? Give me a break. Find something else to wring your pasty white hands over, because this polling outfit can be dismissed as incompetent (if not downright deceitful) out of hand.

NotCoach on June 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Exit question: What are we to make of the trend here?

I’m not sure what to make of 5% of the “equal blame” column moving back to blaming Bush, but I do know one thing: if only 9% blame Obama most for the current economy then we may be screwed. Attack of the low info voters!

Kataklysmic on June 6, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Why do the two samples add up to 99 and 97 respectively? Where did the other three percent of voters go?

vegconservative on June 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

We’ll just have to wait and see how enthusiastic those folks are when it comes time to go the polls, considering that this poll represents a paltry 412 registered voters, not likely voters.

cynccook on June 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

50D/37R/10I

Dude, I’m not that worried.

rhombus on June 6, 2012 at 6:53 PM

This is easily explainable. This is liberal polling groups creating “evidence” to fake out the Romney campaign from contesting a very contestable state that Obama needs if he has any hope of getting reelected. Without Pennsylvania, as well as Wisconsin, Obama either loses close or loses in a electoral rout. If the economic news through the summer and fall is as equally bad as it has been, bet on Obama losing big.

Jurisprudence on June 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I think it’s the “Dinner with Sarah Jessica Parker and Obama” impact. By the way, Sarah Jessica Parker looks like a horse.

http://sarahjessicaparkerlookslikeahorse.com/

The Reasonable Man on June 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Allah: is there any skin left after your endless hand-wringing from yesterday? I’d hate to be those palms.

leftnomore on June 6, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Walker.

Boo!

Fallon on June 6, 2012 at 6:56 PM

I think it’s the “Dinner with Sarah Jessica Parker and Obama” impact. By the way, Sarah Jessica Parker looks like a horse.

http://sarahjessicaparkerlookslikeahorse.com/

The Reasonable Man on June 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

What an INSULT. To horses everywhere.

leftnomore on June 6, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Barnyard Epithet.

jangle12 on June 6, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Oh dear, “Boo!” as in jumping out and scaring the Dem pollsters, not to Walker.

Fallon on June 6, 2012 at 6:57 PM

DUDE, I’m NERVOUS.. eee awww eee awww…

leftnomore on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Why compare one bad poll to another? You think that for 24 hours after a great victory, you can stick Eeyore in the barn

tbrickert on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

if this is true, then Americans really are as stupid as Obama thinks they are.

kirkill on June 6, 2012 at 6:46 PM

That’s impossible.

thebrokenrattle on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Pennsylvania is fool’s gold. Wake up people. There is NO CHANCE of a Republican winning there in 2012.

We’re not in the 1990s anymore.

Nessuno on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Conservative Republican and early Tea Party supporter Pat Toomey beat Obama supporter Joe Sestak for the senate in 2010. (And Sestak’s old House seat went to the GOP, too.)

Tom Corbett became governor, the GOP took control of both houses, and they passed a voter ID law.

The suburbs have no reason to vote for Obama, and he must carry the burbs. The commuters from the burbs had to walk around Occupy Philadelphia for weeks, while the Dem mayor hemmed and hawed and tried to figure out how to get them out. (The reconstruction of City Hall Plaza was finally his excuse.)

PA might lean Dem now, but there have been no ads in the Philly market. And Junior Casey (!) is the top state Dem on the ticket.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Anyone think that three years of watching Hopenchange in action is actually going to turn more Democrats out this year than last time? Me neither.

More like: the absurdity of the sample is directly proportionate to the trouble Obama’s facing.

Go RBNY on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Hey Allah, Rendell just said PA is in play.

reddevil on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Have they “seasonally adjusted” this poll yet???

/SARC>

Let’s see: Unbalanced. Unscientific. From a discredited source. No evidence that Pennsylvania is better off than any other state under Obama, and Obama has recently mounted fresh attacks on Pennsylvania coal and oil industries. Yet the polls try to tell us that Pennsylvania is enjoying the abuse!???

Really, why would anyone believe this poll to be representative of anything besides the latest MSM wet dream??

landlines on June 6, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I thought in the Headlines the person in charge of this ridiculous poll was said to be a very lib former dem politician. I read the guy’s Twitter and he’s a loon. 400 friends he called I bet.

Marcus on June 6, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I think the reason that the split is 50D/37R/10 is because according to the state of PA, Democrats DO actually have 50% of the registered voters in the state. I checked the state web site a few weeks ago because I was questioning a Rasmussen poll with a similar split.

Now that means a raw count of all registered voters. For a pollster to assume the split of voters who actually go to the polls to be the same as registered voters I think is dubious. Remember Democrats have a lot of ACORN like groups signing up anyone on the street. And I think they haven’t purged their rolls in a long time like most states.

And remember also this poll was taken of registered voters… if it was likely voters it would drop a few points…and I bet Rs turn out a few points higher so we’re talking about Obama being ahead more like 3-6 points.

dforston on June 6, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Hey Allah, Rendell just said PA is in play.

reddevil on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Another double agent from the VRWC. (Rendell was a big Hillary supporter.) Heh.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 7:01 PM

After Walkercide, any AFSCME heavy state is entering full panic mode and are going to drive Barry’s numbers upward.

Union fears, and the effect it has on households connected to state income, is what killed Kasich’s reform. It wasn’t that he simply pissed off cops/firemen, he forgot how many homes are dependent on the education system for their means.

So I expect better numbers for Barry in states like PA, especially with a worsening economy.

Think of it this way…

…for four years, your private-sector family/friends have been getting clobbered, while your public-sector income may have stagnated, but hasn’t been disrupted. Now, Clinton says we’re entering a double-dip, numbers are flatlining again and the guy who may replace Barry is a venture tycoon who’s base wants Walker to the hundredth power.

budfox on June 6, 2012 at 7:02 PM

I’ve never given much credence to polls, ever, and after yesterday’s fictional exit polls, I give them even less credence today.

stukinIL4now on June 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

^This^

Rasmussen had Obama up by only 6 among likely voters 2 weeks ago.

I’d rather wait to see what their polling says after the bad job numbers and other f ups Obama had last week.

Flora Duh on June 6, 2012 at 7:03 PM

We’re not in the 1990s anymore.

Nessuno on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

no, but we may be in 1980. theres hope in PA man. this poll, when properly “corrected” actually is encouraging.

t8stlikchkn on June 6, 2012 at 7:04 PM

IT MEANS IT’S TIED THERE JUST LIKE WISCONSIN.

WHICH MEANS THAT THEY’RE BOTH WITHIN STEALING DISTANCE WHICH MEANS – RIGHT NOW – OBAMA CAN AND WILL STEAL BOTH.

reliapundit on June 6, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Bradley Effect.

Who is John Galt on June 6, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Pennsylvania is fool’s gold. Wake up people. There is NO CHANCE of a Republican winning there in 2012.

We’re not in the 1990s anymore.

Nessuno on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Pennsylvania House: Republican
Pennsylvania Senate: Republican
Pennsylvania Governor: Republican
U.S. House Delegation: Republican
U.S. Senate: 1 of 2 Republican

Yeah, I see what you’re saying…

NotCoach on June 6, 2012 at 7:07 PM

In 2008 Obama beat McCain by 10 in Pennsylvania. Is there anyone on the planet who thinks he will up that total?

All polls at this point are skewed Democratic for a variety of reasons. Last night proved that. When election day comes closer, they’ll suddenly get more accurate. And by more accurate, I mean, Na, na, na, Na, na, na, na, Hey, hey … goodbye!

MaxMBJ on June 6, 2012 at 7:08 PM

This poll is so inaccurate that Franklin and Marshall should be ashamed to put it out. If you believe the national polls which are essentially even, then PA can’t be more than 4-6 pts. more Democratic. This poll says Romney loses by 12. Further looking at internals of the poll show Romney winning central PA 44-34. McCain did a lot better than that and one could easily say that Romney will run 2-1 in central PA without an argument to the contrary. In the Northeast part of the state, they have Obama at 56% to Romney’s 24%. This is ludicrous. They even have Obama winning the elderly vote-that is just nonsensical. They have the southeast part of the state (excluding Philadelphia) at 54-31. It will be much closer than that and may end up dead even in that area. The only part the poll that has any validity is Philadelphia which shows Obama up 81-12. Keep in mind this would mean Obama would equal his performance in 2008 which he might do among black voters but certainly not with white voters. One more thing, the poll shows 19% of conservatives voting for Obama. If you believe that, then you need extensive therapy.

jake22 on June 6, 2012 at 7:08 PM

The key is figuring out how to compete in western, heavily union districts. Romney will never won in Philly, with its large African-American vote, and he’ll do well in the middle and northern districts.

Hello Rick Santorum?

MTF on June 6, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Heh. For some reason I get polled a lot, I guess because my land line is listed. Any hoo, everytime they call I give them false information. I’m an independent. I voted for Obama. I love the Obama. Yes, I’m voting for the Obama. Sometimes I’m 19, sometimes I’m 62, sometimes I’m 44. Sometimes I’m white, sometimes black, sometimes hispanic (and sound all the parts).

Keep polling!

Key West Reader on June 6, 2012 at 7:10 PM

The exit poll from Pennsylvania four years ago showed turnout of 44D/37R/18I. The sample for today’s new poll showing O out to a double-digit lead is … 50D/37R/10I. Anyone think that three years of watching Hopenchange in action is actually going to turn more Democrats out this year than last time? Me neither.

With that kind of a sample, and a 48/36 topline, we need to assume that Obama doesn’t get all the Democrats, Romney doesn’t get all the Republicans, and the Indies are all undecided. In a real election, a substantial fraction of the Indies will vote for somebody.

In 2010, a Republican Governor and a Republican Senator were elected statewide in PA, which required either that the Republican candidates won the lion’s share of the Indies, or got a substantial amount of crossover Democrats.

If the 2012 electorate resembles the 2010 electorate, Romney might have a fighting chance of winning PA. Not even Eeyore (AP) believes in a 2012 electorate bluer than that of 2008.

Take this poll with a ton of salt, and flush it down a Philly toilet.

Steve Z on June 6, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Hello Rick Santorum?

MTF on June 6, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Heh, yes it’s TIME RICK!

Who is John Galt on June 6, 2012 at 7:13 PM

MTF on June 6, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Taking the suburbs might be enough. Two suburban House seats that went Dem in 2008 flipped back to GOP in 2010.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 7:15 PM

PA all comes down to a couple of things. 1) Turnout in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (democrat run for over 50 years) 2) How hard Romney hits O on his comments about coal and drilling for oil/fracking. The north center part of the state is booming in gas money and coal has always been big in PA. With the right GOTV campaign in the center of the state and the northern T then Romney has a punchers chance, with at the very least O having to spend a lot of money in Philly and Pittsburgh to get his base out.

Freedom of Philadelphia on June 6, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Don’t believe in polls, never have, never will. They are so skewered towards what they WANT people to believe. Example: Scott Walker wins…….AGAIN! Heh, meh, if these pollsters REALLY want to believe they are fooling the masses-with-brains, I say let them play their silly little games. We know the truth and the truth will SET US FREE! :)

sicoit on June 6, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Pic of the Day #2: Obama & The Dead Man’s Claw

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/pic-of-day-obama-dead-mans-claw.html

M2RB: Lenny Breau plays Jerry Reed’s “The Claw”

Resist We Much on June 6, 2012 at 7:16 PM

In a recent poll of 500 likely voters, Rasmussen showed Obama with only a 6% advantage 47 – 41 and 5% undecided. Consider too, that registered Dems outnumber registered Republicans by 4.1 million to 3 million.

cynccook on June 6, 2012 at 7:16 PM

PA also has one less electoral vote. In the redistricting, the GOP legislature combined Murtha’s old district with another Dem’s and let the two fight it out in the primary.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Exit question: What are we to make of the trend here?

That the people polled are nuts? How is Bush more responsible for the current economic situation now than he was before?

PA has seemed lately like that mirage in the desert…every presidential election, the GOP thinks they have a shot. And each time, they’re wrong. I doubt they spend a lot of resources there. I will say, though, that it’s pretty stupid for that state GOP chair to relay what Mitt allegedly told him personally. Why make public, in June, that the candidate doesn’t think he can win your state?

changer1701 on June 6, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Sure whatever you say Allah. Nothing is going quell my high from last night. Nothing!

Bmore on June 6, 2012 at 7:19 PM

As a PA person, I’d say Øbama is widely hated everywhere except in Philadelphia, and diminishing parts of Johnstown and Pittsburgh. I’d say if we can restrict voters in Philadelphia to one vote, then we take PA.

PA for Mitt 2012. It could easily happen.

petefrt on June 6, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Forget Philadelphia, but given the natural gas industry and Tom Corbin taking the governor’s mansion and Pat Toomey winning the Senate seat two years ago, things could be changing. I believe Bob Casey will have a tough race to keep his Senate seat.

djaymick on June 6, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Freedom of Philadelphia on June 6, 2012 at 7:16 PM

The new voter ID law could make the Philly and Pittsburgh turnout inteesting. Of course, there is always the old “already have vote on the machines when they’re opened up” ploy.

When some machines were delivered to polling places in Philly in 2004, they already had several hundred votes on them, even though they were to have been cleared and secured since the last election.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 7:20 PM

The sampling of this poll is insane, but I never figured the GOP could take Pennsylvania anyway.

This is why I wanted the state GOP to stick to their guns and award the states electoral vote proportionally the way Nebraska and Maine do. I guess they gave up on that?

Daemonocracy on June 6, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Leaving aside the joke sample, chicken entrail readings, and everything else related to political astrology, even Romney’s actual chances of winning PA:

Of course Romney is going to vigorously contest Pennsylvania. How can he not? Look at the battleground map. He’s going to have an enormous amount of donations – probably more than Obama 2008 (if you don’t adjust for the inflation caused by Obama and his fellow Monopoly money advocates at Fed.)

So look at the battleground map. Where, exactly, is he supposed to spend it if not PA? North Carolina has been sewn up for three years. AZ isn’t going anywhere. States like NH and IA are closer to hand, but they’re small potatoes.

Certainly Romney’s going to spend a lot of money on the three essentials: Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. But there a limit to how much you can spend in one place while still getting a return, and a saying regarding eggs and the quantity of baskets.

It would certainly be the most Romney thing ever to pare back his electoral strategy to 270-275 before the race even starts and try to grind the thing out. Let’s hope the novelty of people actually supporting him emboldens him a bit more than that.

HitNRun on June 6, 2012 at 7:27 PM

…Steelers fans aren’t that dumb!

KOOLAID2 on June 6, 2012 at 7:27 PM

I don’t think this poll is actually too far from the truth. The problem seems to be that they didn’t push people to make a decision. Obviously, if Obama only gets 48% of the vote in November, he will lose. This is also a registered voter poll.

I don’t think we need to be bashing the poll. It’s not too far off what other polls are saying. PA has a lot of undecided voters right now, and a Democratic floor of 46 or 47%.

mboyle1988 on June 6, 2012 at 7:28 PM

A Gallup poll this time of the year before the election of Reagan and Carter showed Carter with a 12 point lead over Reagan.

logman1 on June 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

PA is a trap (until further notice).

Toomey had a very comfortable lead there but the forgettable Bart Stupak, who was embroiled in his own bribery controversy, made it a nailbiter on election day…in a midterm…during a GOP wave. All of the corrupt Philly inner-city black vote will be out for Obama in full fury.

There are a lot fewer black people in Wisconsin – just sayin’.

The Count on June 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Obama is in trouble in every State with the exception of New York and Connecticut. Obama is in trouble in California, but don’t expect any news outlet to tell that story. One thing that is clear following the disastrous polling data from yesterday’s elections is simply that polling data can’t be trusted in this era. The people have had it up to their ears with big brother politics and the pollsters haven’t a clue as to how true this is.

Keemo on June 6, 2012 at 7:40 PM

COAL!

GarandFan on June 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

50D/37R/10I.

hahaahahahahahaha

ahahahahahahahaha

You don’t think they are trying to influence the political climate do you?

/

CW on June 6, 2012 at 7:44 PM

It’ll be 52% Romney, 48% Obama by November.

O is going down in Pa.!

profitsbeard on June 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

If Romney is going to contest Ohio and WV, he might as well contest PA, if only because some of the issues, demographics and and ad markets would be the same in WV, Ohio and western PA. Go for the Philly suburbs, too, and he could eke it out.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

50% Democrats in the poll and Obama can not get 50% of the vote?

Terrye on June 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

51D? WTF?

Also, you didn’t mention that the Feb poll is when Santorum was leading that poll against Obama. Romney actually went down after Santorum left the race. That’s normal. But will they actually vote for Obama?

MrX on June 6, 2012 at 7:50 PM

This number is much much closer,no not fall for it, by November they will have Obama winning by 20 points with a 8.5 unemployment rate

Conservative4ev on June 6, 2012 at 7:51 PM

12 point lead? Must be why the Regime is already running so many ads here in PA.

forest on June 6, 2012 at 7:53 PM

I think it’s the “Dinner with Sarah Jessica Parker and Obama” impact. By the way, Sarah Jessica Parker looks like a horse.

http://sarahjessicaparkerlookslikeahorse.com/

The Reasonable Man on June 6, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I took a look at this website. The horses are quite attractive.

trigon on June 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Conservative Republican and early Tea Party supporter Pat Toomey beat Obama supporter Joe Sestak for the senate in 2010. (And Sestak’s old House seat went to the GOP, too.)

Tom Corbett became governor, the GOP took control of both houses, and they passed a voter ID law.

The suburbs have no reason to vote for Obama, and he must carry the burbs. The commuters from the burbs had to walk around Occupy Philadelphia for weeks, while the Dem mayor hemmed and hawed and tried to figure out how to get them out. (The reconstruction of City Hall Plaza was finally his excuse.)

PA might lean Dem now, but there have been no ads in the Philly market. And Junior Casey (!) is the top state Dem on the ticket.

Wethal on June 6, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Only valid point I saw on thread.

Yes this poll is worthless. The sample proves that.

But still PA is all about Coal. Problem with that is Romney is the only Governor to actually implement Cap and Trade. Actions speak far more loudly than words and the US is strongly Democratic. So Romney would not help Pen in the least. His words are meaningless as he says different things different days of the week anyway.

Fact is if Santorum were the candidate even this biased poll would be much better for Santorum. There is no doubt Santorum would protect coal, guns and religion. News everyone votes not just Philly.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Fact is if Santorum were the candidate even this biased poll would be much better for Santorum. There is no doubt Santorum would protect coal, guns and religion. News everyone votes not just Philly.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

do you feel a GOP congress (both houses, which is porbable) woudl allow for this? i have no idea, but it seems somewhat unlikely. i know western PA is coal, but i think they are in the fracking/gas zone as well. and the eastern and higher population centers i dont think are tied to heavily to coal. wetahls analysis was very well done. philly burbs may be the key area, do you think?

t8stlikchkn on June 6, 2012 at 8:06 PM

Conservative Republican and early Tea Party supporter Pat Toomey beat Obama supporter Joe Sestak for the senate in 2010. (And Sestak’s old House seat went to the GOP, too.)

Tom Corbett became governor, the GOP took control of both houses, and they passed a voter ID law.

The suburbs have no reason to vote for Obama, and he must carry the burbs. The commuters from the burbs had to walk around Occupy Philadelphia for weeks, while the Dem mayor hemmed and hawed and tried to figure out how to get them out. (The reconstruction of City Hall Plaza was finally his excuse.)

PA might lean Dem now, but there have been no ads in the Philly market. And Junior Casey (!) is the top state Dem on the ticket

This! And the NW and Pittsburgh areas along with some of the NE parts of the state are not definites for Obama at all. A well-known name and Dem Dahlkemper lost her seat to a rookie Repub. I think Romney needs to look at bothe Ohio and PA.

Deanna on June 6, 2012 at 8:11 PM

If Romney wins 49 states, there’s a good chance that Pennsylvania would be the one state that he loses. The people in this state have rust belt rust in their brains.

ardenenoch on June 6, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Sorry, but after last night, I no longer pay attention to polls.

CurtZHP on June 6, 2012 at 8:19 PM

Fact is if Santorum were the candidate even this biased poll would be much better for Santorum. There is no doubt Santorum would protect coal, guns and religion. News everyone votes not just Philly.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Looks like someone is determined to take angryed’s place as the biggest clown on Hot Gas. Let me remind you of something: Santorum quit the race because he was about to lose PA to Romney.

The Count on June 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

One more link, you’ve got the two up top for 2008 and the poll.

2010 exit polling on their Senate race:

http://www.cbsnews.com/election2010/exit.shtml?state=PA&jurisdiction=0&race=S

40D/37R/23I+other

However if the poll is correct with the “I + other” going 49 Obama 27 Romney 24 undecided that’s going to be a problem regardless what the turnout is.

gekkobear on June 6, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Looks like someone is determined to take angryed’s place as the biggest clown on Hot Gas. Let me remind you of something: Santorum quit the race because he was about to lose PA to Romney.

The Count on June 6, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Yes because Mitt promised everyone he would do better against Obama. That is not working out is it? Seems Romney is 14 points behind Scott Walker. Seems a Conservative has no problem wining in PA but not Romney. Romney stinks on ice in PA. Seems to me Romney has no chance of beating Obama.

On the other hand the Conservative Republicans in two major Blue States are doing great. Not having any problem beating Democrats.

If we actually want to win in November. Mitt is the worst choice. If we actually care in this most important race we will find a way to show Mitt the door.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 9:25 PM

As a Pennsylvanian, the only way Obama would poll that well is if they just sampled Philadelphia. If the center city Phildaelphia turnout is not good, Romney could take PA.

talkingpoints on June 6, 2012 at 9:38 PM

As a Pennsylvanian, the only way Obama would poll that well is if they just sampled Philadelphia. If the center city Phildaelphia turnout is not good, Romney could take PA.

talkingpoints on June 6, 2012 at 9:38 PM

Just like McCain did right?

Put up or shut up.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Just another non-credible poll, nothing to see here . . . . . . .

listens2glenn on June 6, 2012 at 9:59 PM

talkingpoints on June 6, 2012 at 9:38 PM

.
Just like McCain did right?

Put up or shut up.

Steveangell
on June 6, 2012 at 9:43 PM

.
We’ll do our “put up” in November.

listens2glenn on June 6, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Not even 500 people in a state that big? Oooooookay then.

SouthernGent on June 6, 2012 at 10:18 PM

I’d say if we can restrict voters in Philadelphia to one vote, then we take PA.

Thread winner!

MTF on June 6, 2012 at 10:29 PM

Yes because Mitt promised everyone he would do better against Obama. That is not working out is it? Seems Romney is 14 points behind Scott Walker. Seems a Conservative has no problem wining in PA but not Romney. Romney stinks on ice in PA. Seems to me Romney has no chance of beating Obama.

On the other hand the Conservative Republicans in two major Blue States are doing great. Not having any problem beating Democrats.

If we actually want to win in November. Mitt is the worst choice. If we actually care in this most important race we will find a way to show Mitt the door.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Yeah, just think – Walker could have maybe won by 20 points if he made birth control the centerpiece of his campaign. I mean, everyone knows that birth control overuse is the seminal issue of the day (no pun intended) and the real reason for your miserable economic circumstances.

Walker and Santorum are both basically interchangeable conservatives. Walker busts unions, Santorum votes against right-to-work laws. Like I said – same thing.

But, I really think you’re onto something with Romney. What would really be key for defeating Obama is to somehow find a way to convince Romney to release his delegates to someone that he either defeated or decided not to run in the first place. That sounds like a great winning strategy. Obama wouldn’t have a prayer!

The Count on June 6, 2012 at 10:53 PM

Romney must win these states to even have a chance of becoming president: Florida, North Carolina, and Virgina. These are must win states for Romney. Assuming Romney wins these 3 states he can get to 270 electoral votes in many different ways. He will need to win either Pennsylvania or Ohio and just one of these states: Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Iowa, or New Hampshire. If he loses both Pennsylvania and Ohio he can still win if he sweeps (1) Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada or (2) Wisconsin, Nevada, and Colorado, or (3) Wisconsin, Colorado, New Hampshire or (4) Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire, or (5) Wisconsin, Iowa, and Colorado.

Dollayo on June 6, 2012 at 11:17 PM

I wouldn’t make too much of this poll. They surveyed only around 425 “voters.” What does voters mean? Registered, likely, adults of voting age? Additionally, its Franklin and Marshall, which is well known in PA for its liberal leanings. Regardless, surveying less than 500 people in a state of 12 million is a little weak. Lastly, our unemployment rate may be low, but that’s largely coming from heavily Republican areas like Cumberland, York, Lancaster counties. What hurts PA, and makes it turn blue more often than not these days, are the two garbage bins that occupy our western and eastern borders (Pittsburgh and Philly).

matthewbit07 on June 7, 2012 at 2:34 AM

I miss “Allah in the House”

This is pure suck.

TexasJew on June 7, 2012 at 2:53 AM

Speaking as someone who lives in PA, I can tell you O is already flooding the airwaves with ads, and Romney isn’t. Romney can win this state, but he needs to make an investment.

Dude, I’m worried.

DRayRaven on June 7, 2012 at 4:49 AM

I live and work in PA, and I can tell you they are certainly not asking the people I talk to every day.

Never before can I remember casual comments in the course of a conversation about just how miserable a president is, but those are becoming commonplace now.

Siddhartha Vicious on June 7, 2012 at 5:19 AM

Just like McCain did right?

Put up or shut up.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Hmm, I thought you were just a standard Eeyore, until I read up the thread and saw you are a dyed-in-the-wool Romney hater.

Nonetheless, here is the county map from last time, note that a metastasized Philadelphia was where the vast majority of Obama votes were cast.

Siddhartha Vicious on June 7, 2012 at 5:48 AM

I think Romney should go for either Pennsylvania or Ohio. If he wins just one of these 2 states he will probably win the election. Romney must win Florida, North Carolina, and Virgina.

Dollayo on June 7, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Living in PA, this makes me sick! I just don’t get it. Wish we could give Philly to NJ, our taxes would be cut by 1/3! He needs to do good in south western PA to win, maybe start carrying a Terrbile Towel??? I’ve talked to many people where I work that voted for Barry O last time and they regret it, I don’t buy into these numbers.

slapnuts on June 7, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Philadelphia has helped carry PA for Democrats in the last 10 years, and the vote results have always been highly suspicious. 90% voter turnout, 90% of it for Democrats. With Republicans running the state and passing laws to prevent voter fraud, i don’t think it will be as easy

tflst5 on June 7, 2012 at 11:37 AM

No coincidence that the employment figures in Pennsylvania (and Wisconsin) are better than the national average since their Governor’s office flipped from Democrat to Republican in 2010, hmmmm?

olesparkie on June 7, 2012 at 12:54 PM

I guess I shouldn’t be as surprised as I am, ’cause I didn’t realize that Pennsylvanians were the idiots that they appear to be, aligned with NY, Calif., etc. I would have thought they would be smarter, and never paid much attention who they aligned with in the past. But with this info, I have lost a lot of respect for that state.

boogieboy on June 7, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Just shows that there are STILL 48% of really, REALLY STUPID people in Pennsylvania!?!?!

Colatteral Damage on June 8, 2012 at 3:34 PM