Michael Barone’s re-weighted Wisconsin results: Obama 48, Romney 48

posted at 3:21 pm on June 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

O’s showing against Romney in the exits was the one tiny bit of hope that MSNBC clung to late last night, to the point where Lawrence O’Donnell said, with a straight face, that the big winner in Wisconsin had been … Obama.

Here’s Michael Barone stealing the last little bit of their candy:

The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%. With 92% of the vote in, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s excellent website reports the score as 54%-46% Walker. Let’s say that’s the final results: only 13% of precincts from Milwaukee County and 3% of precincts from Madison’s Dane County — the Democrats’ two reservoirs of big majorities — remain uncounted. It has been emblazoned on mainstream media that the exit poll also showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state 51%-45%. But if you think the exit poll was 4% too Democratic — and that’s in line with exit poll discrepancies with actual vote results over the last decade, as documented by the exit poll pioneer, the late Warren Mitofsky* — that result looks more like 49%-47% Romney. Or assume the remaining Milwaukee County precincts whittle Republican Governor Scott Walker’s margin over Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to 53%-47%, which looks likely, the Obama-Romney numbers would look like 48%-48%.

This is in a state that Obama carried 56%-42% in 2008. But those putative numbers also look very much like the numbers in 2000, when Al Gore carried Wisconsin 47.8%-47.6% over George W. Bush, or the numbers in 2004, when John Kerry carried Wisconsin 49.7%-49.3% over Bush.

Walker ended up winning by slightly less than seven points, which, per Barone’s logic, should mean that Romney actually has a very narrow lead over Obama. Two problems with that, though. First, there were several iterations of exit poll results last night as results came in and, if memory serves, the 51/45 spread for Obama that Barone mentions was only the first of them. The next wave showed Obama’s lead ballooning to 12 points(!) even while it also showed Walker inching out to a four-point lead over Barrett. I lost track of how the exits moved after that (as did lefty Michael Tomasky, who’s otherwise in full “great news for Obama!” spin mode), but ABC seems to have settled on a seven-point Obama lead. If that’s true, then Barone’s “adjustment” analysis would place Obama and Romney in a dead heat. But that leads us to the second complication: He seems to be assuming that there are no crossover voters who prefer both Walker and Obama. I.e., he’s arguing that if the initial Walker/Barrett exit had it 50/50 and Walker ended up winning by seven, you should assume that the same number of voters were erroneously attributed to Obama in the exits when they should have gone to Romney. Is that really safe to assume? Remember, according to the exit poll, fully 60 percent said that governors should be recalled from office only when they’re guilty of misconduct. Could be that there’s some small but significant critical mass of centrist Dems who were queasy about yanking Walker in the middle of this term given the tit-for-tat recall precedent that might set but are prepared to pull the lever for O in November. On the other hand, if Michael Barone tells you one thing and an idiot like me tells you something different, Barone’s conclusion is a safe bet to be more accurate. So he may be right — given the exit polls and final results last night, Wisconsin’s a toss-up.

Then there’s the question of whether the Obama/Romney exit results can be trusted at all. Jay Cost explains:

Here is the question the exit pollsters ask:

If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote?

A. Barack Obama, 51 percent.
B. Mitt Romney, 44 percent.
C. Would Not Vote, 3 percent.

What is missing from this is the “undecided” category. It’s not even an option, which to my mind really undercuts the utility of this question. To what extent are Obama and Romney “supporters” just being pushed there because they have no undecided option? Could be a lot. Who knows?

Every “undecided” vote at this point is good news for Mitt because it’s a vote that the incumbent has failed to lock up after three years in office. In which case, yeah, Barone’s conclusion makes more sense. Even if Obama does lead by six or seven points, the results last night suggest that that’s a very soft six or seven. And more good news: Marquette is crowing that their last poll of Wisconsin nailed the outcome by predicting a seven-point Walker win, but Guy Benson notes that the same poll also showed Wisconsin deadlocked between Obama and Romney at 46 apiece. Even in a worst-case scenario, in other words, there’s every reason to believe that Romney’s in contention there, albeit facing an uphill battle to win. Is he willing to spend boatloads of dough, a la Walker himself, to try to take it? Or should he take heart that if Wisconsin is already this close, he’s bound to have even more golden opportunities in other swing states? Sean Trende:

Now, this also might be as good as it gets for Republicans, and again the 2012 general electorate will probably be more Democratic than this one. At the same time, Obama doesn’t want a low-to-mid-single-digit win in the Badger State. That would suggest a very close race nationally. Remember, he won the state by 14 points in 2008 while winning nationally by eight, so anything less than a six-point lead in the state is not a great sign for him.

As a final thought, ask yourself this: In June of 2008, do you think Walker could have withstood a recall election? Or in June of 2006? The 2012 electorate probably won’t look like 2010’s, but this stands as yet another data point that suggests the enthusiasm gap that plagued Republicans in the mid-to-late “aughts” has disappeared.

Josh Kraushaar of National Journal came to the same conclusion: If Obama’s five- to seven-point decline in Wisconsin from 2008 holds true across the board, then he’s in desperately deep trouble in closer swing states like Virginia and Ohio. Exit question: Should Romney gamble on Wisconsin or focus elsewhere? Remember, he’s got Wisconsinites Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus ready to go bat for him at home. Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

Update: Walker himself says the state is competitive but that Romney is certainly still the underdog.


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Regardless. Romney needs to spend some, not alot (right now), money in the state and make some appearances to see what happens.

Zaggs on June 6, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Whe left with the lesser of two evils, it will alwyas be close.

they lie on June 6, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Only because Barone spent 7x more money on his data…..

tommyboy on June 6, 2012 at 3:25 PM

One factor that cuts in Mitt’s favor – in this election the Wisconsin unions had significant help on the ground from unions outside the state. Come November they will all be busy with their own races. I don’t know how much of a factor this is but possibly a point ot two.

BuzzCrutcher on June 6, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Barone understands this data probably better than anyone in the country. Ignore his analysis at your own risk.

Flange on June 6, 2012 at 3:26 PM

An exit poll which says the race is too close to call, in an election which actually ends up with a lopsided win is not a reliable poll. there is no way around that fact. Garbage in, garbage out…the exit polls from last night were a waste of paper

DVPTexFla on June 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM

And Romney is no Scott Walker. He will never fire up the base to turn out for him as they did for Walker.

they lie on June 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

Yes, he should go to a middle-sized city in the state. Wisconsin has a lot of them.

Safe choice — Appleton or Green Bay

Bolder choice — Eau Claire or Wausau

In Obama’s face choice — La Crosse.

Mr. D on June 6, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Lawrence O’Donnell said, with a straight face

When has Larry said anything without a straight face? Ever?

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:28 PM

I heard this was the 68th anniversary of D-Day…

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Go everywhere, Romney, drive yourself to the bone. TFGP needs to be stopped.

Bishop on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

As Rush said on his show today, he wonders if the bho/team know if they can believe polls any longer? I hope people, R’s, are not telling the truth when they are asked on exit polls? I just hope that its the case? Me thinks things are much, much worse for bho than he or team has a clue about?
L

letget on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

I will admit it, I pray everyday for Obama…Psalm 109:8

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Exit question: Should Romney gamble on Wisconsin or focus elsewhere? Remember, he’s got Wisconsinites Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus ready to go bat for him at home. Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

Definitely don’t skip Wisconsin! What kind of signal would that send? It’s like in 2008 when McCain bailed on Michigan(publicly no less). Romney absolutely should spend time there and bombard the state with ads(preferably some positive ones mixed in there).

That being said, prioritize Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. Those must come first as they’re far more red-leaning in their voting historically and would render Wisconsin all but superfluous should Romney secure their electoral votes.

(I’m assuming North Carolina and Indiana are lost causes for Obama, BTW.)

Doughboy on June 6, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Here’s Michael Barone stealing the last little bit of their candy:

They still chew on the ‘money candy’, while their dough collector in chief is at 5 fundraisers in Cali today, and at least one in Vegas, tomorrow.

He hit the Cali beaches but omitted these.

Schadenfreude on June 6, 2012 at 3:31 PM

I would love to meet someone who voted for Walker but plans on voting for Obama. (preferably before the brain tumor claims them)

Kataklysmic on June 6, 2012 at 3:31 PM

In Play? Good deal.

Bmore on June 6, 2012 at 3:31 PM

TFGP needs to be stopped.

Bishop on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

What’s wrong with a fabulous prez? Damn right wing homophobes.

Kataklysmic on June 6, 2012 at 3:32 PM

I would love to meet someone who voted for Walker but plans on voting for Obama. (preferably before the brain tumor claims them)

Kataklysmic on June 6, 2012 at 3:31 PM

You meant colon cancer, right?

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I heard this was the 68th anniversary of D-Day…

Yes it is! And not a peep outta bho on this. But why should he, he is way way too busy getten on AF1 outta DC daily getting re-election cash.

Our home wants to give honor to all those who died and the precious few still alive from D-Day. May God hold them all in His arms.
L

letget on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I heard this was the 68th anniversary of D-Day…

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

1944…I am sure that Obama will be briefed and explained that D-day is not a day to commemorate democrats..

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Barone said McCain had a chance in PA and predicted he’d win OH.

libfreeordie on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Sure Romney should work Wisconsin. He already has the infrastructure in place and has 5 months to win the majority. Wait around and Obama may do most of the work by dropping it in his lap. He still needs to make himself known across the state so he looks like a worthy alternative. It should be a very obtainable task.

FREEDOM4906 on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

let crossroads GPS prepare the battlefield first mitt. let them handle aug/sept. if it IS 48/48 in oct, then election night will be over about the time polls close in WI. and you wont be defending anywhere, you’ll be on offense in all 08 obama states.

t8stlikchkn on June 6, 2012 at 3:34 PM

TFGP needs to be stopped.

Bishop on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Is Obama The First Gay President Of The United States or The First Actual Gay President Of The United States?

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:34 PM

(as did lefty Michael Tomasky, who’s otherwise in full “great news for Obama!” spin mode),

I love it when Tomasky is delusional, which is all the time. He sits deepest in Obama’s azz, consumes what he finds there and mistakes it for Beluga caviar.

Schadenfreude on June 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM

My thoughts exactly this am how can the lsm trust the exit polls for dear leader when it was royally screwed up for the recall itself

cmsinaz on June 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM

1944…I am sure that Obama will be briefed and explained that D-day is not a day to commemorate democrats..

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

oh goody. an opportunity to breakout “corpseman” maybe.

t8stlikchkn on June 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Our home wants to give honor to all those who died and the precious few still alive from D-Day. May God hold them all in His arms.
L

letget on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Amen. Google is celebrating drive in theaters or something.

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 3:36 PM

He sits deepest in Obama’s azz, consumes what he finds there and mistakes it for Beluga caviar.

Schadenfreude on June 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Begala caviar?

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Can 0bama win reelection w/o WI? How many electoral votes are in play?

OmahaConservative on June 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

WI road trip for mitt methinks

Go for it!

cmsinaz on June 6, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Wisconsinites have a few more months to enjoy the savings provided by Scott Walker’s plan, while unions bleed members and their dues, and there will be no buses from Michigan full of GOTV activists. Add Voter ID law to the mix, and the Dems are beyond hope in Wisconsin.

Archivarix on June 6, 2012 at 3:38 PM

MB’s theory is interesting but Walker himself said that Wisconsin does have a significant number of split-ticket voters. A not so subtle suggestion that just because he might be re-elected does not portend a Romney victory at all.

There are a huge number of moonbats in Wisconsin, especially in Dane County.

Bark won the state with a double digit margin in 08…

CorporatePiggy on June 6, 2012 at 3:39 PM

As Rush said on his show today, he wonders if the bho/team know if they can believe polls any longer? I hope people, R’s, are not telling the truth when they are asked on exit polls? I just hope that its the case? Me thinks things are much, much worse for bho than he or team has a clue about?
L

I fully admit that I’d lie like the proverbial rug if I was surveyed, yes I would.

I’d ask for forgiveness later, but yeah…I’d so say I was voting for O.

Bob's Kid on June 6, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Hey remember when libs were crying crocodile tears in 2008 because Bammy outspent McCain $741 mil to $228 mil? Yeah, me either.

Kataklysmic on June 6, 2012 at 3:39 PM

Barone said McCain had a chance in PA and predicted he’d win OH.

libfreeordie on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I remember what everyone else had to say just before John Kerry beat the stuffing out of Dubya in the 2004 election.

Bishop on June 6, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Romney’s already rising and don’t discount the 20+ office Walker campaign machine which they’re already turning into a Romney machine.

cynccook on June 6, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Amen. Google is celebrating drive in theaters or something.

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Google is an international company that has millions of German customers. Much as I’d love to the D-Day commemorated in a doodle, I wouldn’t bash ‘em too hard for not doing so.

Archivarix on June 6, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Begala caviar?

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:37 PM

Nope, Beluga

Schadenfreude on June 6, 2012 at 3:40 PM

oh goody. an opportunity to breakout “corpseman” maybe.

t8stlikchkn on June 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Yes, the “corpsmen” will be honored by the president while speaking Austrian.

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:41 PM

This I can believe. Taking undecided out of the poll makes for a huge Bradley effect potential. Everything I saw last night prior to the results sounded like a 50/50 split according to Fox and slightly favored Obama on MSNBC. They had the electorate so disembled I had a hard time keeping up.

DanMan on June 6, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Barone understands this data probably better than anyone in the country. Ignore his analysis at your own risk.

Flange on June 6, 2012 at 3:26 PM

Yep, he’s a mathematical savant to an extent, with enough social skills to get through life normally, for a nerd. You can walk up to him, tell him what congressional district you live in and the state, and he can tell you the history of their voting off the top of his enormous head.

slickwillie2001 on June 6, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Of course Romney should attack in Wisconsin. At the very least it makes The Destroyer have to spend money there and the donks there are pretty damn pissed and disillusioned with king Barry.

jukin3 on June 6, 2012 at 3:42 PM

It isn’t just Wisconsin. It will be interesting to see what is happening with union membership in Indiana, too.

crosspatch on June 6, 2012 at 3:44 PM

1944…I am sure that Obama will be briefed and explained that D-day is not a day to commemorate democrats..

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

___________________________________________

Better yet, sounds like a briefing on O’bama’s (Del Dolemonte TM) missing transcripts

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on June 6, 2012 at 3:45 PM

For tactical morale purposes, of course he should get on the ground in WI and spend some time with Walker and Ryan there.

But he doesn’t need to spend a ton of money. If he can get within 5-7 points in Wisconsin he’s already going to have the election sewed up in the closer swing states.

Barone is the past master of American electoral politics. Wherever he is on election night, that’s the channel I’m watching.

Missy on June 6, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Wait. Didn’t those same exit polls also show Walker and Barret in a dead heat?

logis on June 6, 2012 at 3:47 PM

But those putative numbers also look very much like the numbers in 2000, when Al Gore carried Wisconsin 47.8%-47.6% over George W. Bush, or the numbers in 2004, when John Kerry carried Wisconsin 49.7%-49.3% over Bush.

So we are looking at a repeat of 2000 or 2004?

I.e. a very close national result where the entire election will hinge on the electoral votes of one state, maybe even a split in the popular/electoral vote?

Great.

Norwegian on June 6, 2012 at 3:47 PM

And Romney is no Scott Walker. He will never fire up the base to turn out for him as they did for Walker.

they lie on June 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM

You can just as easily argue that the Walker victory will collapse Democrat turnout. The Democrats have lost millions on this recall; Wisconsin has become a black hole for them. How many more millions will they sink in to that state? How many of them will GOTV for Obama in November, especially since Obama totally abandoned Barrett in a cowardly way?

Wisconsin’s going to be another North Carolina; their local Democrat Party has to be in a shambles right now.

Doomberg on June 6, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Now this is a statistical analysis, assuming that the difference between exit poll and real poll last night can be directly applied to the other question about Bammie/Romney.

This is not to suggest that it can’t though, in fact Bradley/Wilder would suggest that Romney would be even further ahead.

slickwillie2001 on June 6, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Of course Romney should attack in Wisconsin. At the very least it makes The Destroyer have to spend money there and the donks there are pretty damn pissed and disillusioned with king Barry.

jukin3 on June 6, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Romney has him fighting now on at least three geographical areas…Wi, CA, Fl…dividing his time and money on those three areas, three that Obama waa absolutely counting on not fighting for (Florida exempted), and two of those areas he spend little time or money in, now is being forced to spend resources.
Opening up as many “fronts” as possible is a classic military move, forcing the enemy to use resources in geographical displaced areas is classic.

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:47 PM

If you plug the 14 point shift that makes Wisconsin a dead heat into the Swingometer, that brings the map to 322-206 for Romney (the other ten being Wisconsin. Forget Ohio and Virginia, Obama will be worrying about Pennsylvania and Minnesota.

Of course the problem with the Swingometer is that such shifts aren’t usually uniform nationwide, but it does give an idea how nasty this loss was for the left.

Gingotts on June 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM

oh goody. an opportunity to breakout “corpseman” maybe.

t8stlikchkn on June 6, 2012 at 3:35 PM
Yes, the “corpsmen” will be honored by the president while speaking Austrian.

right2bright on June 6, 2012 at 3:41 PM

…and then JugEars will turn over the rest of the program… to Billy Jefferson Clinton.

KOOLAID2 on June 6, 2012 at 3:48 PM

Barone said McCain had a chance in PA and predicted he’d win OH.

libfreeordie on June 6, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Source?

Missy on June 6, 2012 at 3:49 PM

When it comes to spending time & resources, other than CA, NY & IL, Romney shouldn’t rule anything out. Why should he?

I think even the DimWits are realizing through their internal polling it’s much worse for their Messiah than they ever imagined.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on June 6, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Michael Barone is another anti-American neo-con, neo-cons are NOT conservatives, they despise the US, our sovereignty and constitution as much as Obama does. Read Barone’s latest rant, totally in love with the concept of importing more sub Saharan Africans to the US as another source of cheap labor we taxpayers will have to subsidize. Barone doesn’t care about what this does to the US.

He detests US citizens, he wants a banana republic a pig like him can exploit. Like Obama he wants a plantation slavery state, where the US resources can be stolen out from under us, our property seized by eminent domain, he doesn’t care, as long as he profits. Conservatives who hold Barone up are RINOs, who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

Ceolas on June 6, 2012 at 3:50 PM

Michael Barone’s re-weighted Wisconsin results: Obama 48, Romney 48

Says one of the Fox News people that helped shove Romney down our throats.

FloatingRock on June 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

And Romney is no Scott Walker. He will never fire up the base to turn out for him as they did for Walker.

they lie on June 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM

On the other hand, Barrett is no Barack Obama. He could never fire up the Republican base to turn out against him as they will against Obama.

sadarj on June 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

You can just as easily argue that the Walker victory will collapse Democrat turnout. The Democrats have lost millions on this recall; Wisconsin has become a black hole for them. How many more millions will they sink in to that state? How many of them will GOTV for Obama in November, especially since Obama totally abandoned Barrett in a cowardly way?

Wisconsin’s going to be another North Carolina; their local Democrat Party has to be in a shambles right now.

Doomberg on June 6, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Racist!!!

/s

MobileVideoEngineer on June 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

If he were not such a cautious weasel he’d have gone to a factory with Walker. That would have been truly steely and historic. He proved to be a lesser eunuch than Obama, but that’s about it.

Schadenfreude on June 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

BTW, here’s the article Barone wrote, estatic over the demographic trends Obama is imposing, more communists from China, more Indians, more Africans. He wants to bleed us dry. http://www.creators.com/opinion/michael-barone/are-we-at-a-demographic-inflection-point.html

Ceolas on June 6, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Barone said McCain had a chance in PA and predicted he’d win OH.

libfree wins the Pauline Kael award for political insight…

DanMan on June 6, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Update: Walker himself says the state is competitive but that Romney is certainly still the underdog.

go for it, Mitt.

ted c on June 6, 2012 at 3:52 PM

“Romney is no Scott Walker. He will never fire up the base to turn out for him as they did for Walker,” said Eeyore on June 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM.

“Eeyore,” said Owl, “Christopher Robin is giving a party.”

“Very interesting,” said Eeyore. “I suppose they will be sending me down the odd bits which got trodden on. Kind and Thoughtful. Not at all, don’t mention it.”

Akzed on June 6, 2012 at 3:53 PM

im now dedicated to lying to any pollster who calls me. If we can get enough people to publicly state they will do this, we could put a stop to the nightly polling madness in our news.

#lietopollsters

NavyDavy on June 6, 2012 at 3:53 PM

After Wisconsin: Denial Ain’t Just A River In Egypt

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/after-wisconsin-denial-aint-just-river.html

M2RB: Ozzy Osbourne

“I will tell you I’m OK, but deep inside I’m afraid.
I don’t drink holy water, I’m not a son of Christ.
I ain’t no Black Messiah, and I don’t load my dice.
You can tell me you’re all right, but why you so afraid?
You’re in denial, you never will believe it’s you.
Denial, you always hide behind the truth.
You’ll never believe it, you never believe it’s you.”

- Denial, Ozzy Osbourne, Ozzmosis (1995)

Resist We Much on June 6, 2012 at 3:57 PM

And Romney is no Scott Walker. He will never fire up the base to turn out for him as they did for Walker.

they lie on June 6, 2012 at 3:27 PM

To be fair, Walker was running on a pretty good record of results and probably also gained some mileage from irritated Badger voters who resented the whole recall narrative, regardless of their voting preference. Mitt is at a disadvantage in that comparison.

a capella on June 6, 2012 at 3:58 PM

I wish you guys would quit telling the Democrats they’re in trouble. I wanted it to be a surprise.

kbTexan on June 6, 2012 at 3:59 PM

From earlier today:

Uncomfortable fact: WI is still nationally blue with Obama +7 over Romney in latest poll.

inthemiddle on June 6, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Uncomfortable indeed.

KS Rex on June 6, 2012 at 3:59 PM

not to change the subject much, but i read the cato reprint of the nro piece on Romeny/Leavitt

Not fans of Leavitt. I remember him from the bush years…always thought he was a CW kinda guy, go along, get along…always on the side of Good Government

So, we have to keep the pressure on Romney and the entire political class….few of whom have the courage of Scott Walker.

I can see wrt climate change, heathcare etc. that people could evolve….but i would like just once…for the political class to say, oops…We Screwed UP. We were trying to be nice to the leftists and the poor, and we’re Not That Bright, and didn’t realize that we had Created a Bubble that was based largely on the Baby Boom…and, well, we just aren’t That Bright…so we SCREWED over the country.

i can forgive people who make a mistake and change their minds…even leftists, if they just admit that they had no clue and they’re sober now

r keller on June 6, 2012 at 4:00 PM

The numbers Barone is using are not accurate.

There were three waves of exit poll data (as there always are), and then the post-weighted numbers.

1. There is a wave that is released at 5 pm EST (long before polls close). That is the wave that had Obama-Romney at 51-45. They did not disclose The Walker-Barrett margin at that point, but Drudge leaked that it had Walker ahead of Barrett by 5 points.

2. Then, there is the wave that is released right when the polls close. But this still is not complete, since data collection for this wave stops before polls close (since it takes time to compile it). That was the wave that showed Walker-Barrett at 50-50 and Obama-Romney at 54-42.

3. Then, there is a wave that includes all the pre-weighting exit poll data. This wave had Walker ahead of Barrett by 4 points. This was actually not far off from the ultimate 6.8 points Walker won by.

4. Finally, they weight the data after the final wave (number 3) to the actual Walker-Barrett results. This means that they calculate the answers to all the questions they asked, assuming a Walker-Barrett electorate at exactly what the election results said. In this final, post-weighted result, the Obama-Romney result was 51-44.

If you have any doubt of this, that is the data Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard is using to analyze the election. He dislikes the question because it did not have an undecided option, but he admits the data is no longer skewed towards Democrats.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/what-exit-polls_646716.html

The media and liberals (but I repeat myself) are talking up the fact that Obama is ahead of Romney by seven points, according to the exit poll. It looks as though the numbers have been re-weighted so they no longer skew toward the Democrats. So, what should we make of this?

Here is the question the exit pollsters ask:

If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote?

A. Barack Obama, 51 percent.
B. Mitt Romney, 44 percent.
C. Would Not Vote, 3 percent.

What is missing from this is the “undecided” category. It’s not even an option, which to my mind really undercuts the utility of this question. To what extent are Obama and Romney “supporters” just being pushed there because they have no undecided option? Could be a lot. Who knows?

Where did Barone get it wrong? He took the Walker-Barrett result in wave 2 of the exit polls (50-50), and assumed the equivalent Obama-Romney result in that wave was 51-45. But that was the Obama-Romney result in the first wave, which had Walker beating Barrett by 5 points. So that is totally wrong.

It would have been valid at the time to compare the Walker-Barrett result to the Obama-Romney result if both results come from the same wave (1 or 2). So he could have compared the 50-50 Walker-Barrett result with the equivalent wave 2 54-42 Obama-Romney result (all in wave 2). But there’s no need to do this, because we already have the actual, final, post-weighted exit poll results that have Obama-Romney at 51-44.

Regardless of what wave you look at (or the final post-weighted reuslts), the Obama-Romney margin was 11-14 points above the Walker-Barrett margin.

jd3181 on June 6, 2012 at 4:00 PM

This burns me up.

Mitt (RINO) -7 to Scott (Tea Party)

Real proof that Mitt is not nearly as likely to win as someone like Michelle Bauchman, Newt Gingrich or Rick Santorum.

But no have to go with Mitt because he will do better in States like Wisconsin because he will get independents.

Did not work out.

7 points is a huge disadvantage for Mitt.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:01 PM

I like what Ace said. Show me what a Scott Walker voter who also supports Obama actually looks like.

Doesn’t exist.

John the Libertarian on June 6, 2012 at 4:02 PM

On the other hand, if Michael Barone tells you one thing and an idiot like me tells you something different, Barone’s conclusion is a safe bet to be more accurate. So he may be right — given the exit polls and final results last night, Wisconsin’s a toss-up.


No offense, AP …

… but you nailed it with those two sentences

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:03 PM

7 points is a huge disadvantage for Mitt.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:01 PM


Moby! White whale off the port bow!

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:04 PM

it is a waste of time to deal with exit polling. Remember that President Kerry found that out big time.

lib luv to tell people they voted for the right guy. they’ll tell you all day long about how caring and bright they are

conservatives have better things to do

r keller on June 6, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Exit polling. After the riots and mayhem involving union members, how many people are going to say “oh yeah, I’m voting for Walker today and I’m going to vote for Romney in November?” Then some thug show up and say “that’s a nice family you have there. Be a shame if something happened to them.”

Oink on June 6, 2012 at 4:05 PM

7 points is a huge disadvantage for Mitt.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:01 PM

Hahaha. Just how lonely are you?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Update: Walker himself says the state is competitive but that Romney is certainly still the underdog.

go for it, Mitt.

ted c on June 6, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Sorry misread the article. Walker is at least 10 points better than Romney.

I mean most important election in our lifetimes and we pick the only person with a chance that has a 10 point disadvantage because we were lied to by Mitt supporters swearing they would do better than a conservative Republican. But here is proof they were in fact lying their heads off. Now we are doomed to four more years of Obama most likely.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:06 PM

The results and timing of this election could not be better. Imagine jammimg 6 of your fellow travellers in your Prius and heading to Rhode Island for Kos’ annual Nutroots Nation deal. It runs tomorrow through Sunday. What’dya think they’ll be talking about?

“man we got us a WI senator in an off year for the legislature!!”

DanMan on June 6, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Hahaha. Just how lonely are you?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:06 PM

Mittbot Marxist alert

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:07 PM

It would have been valid at the time to compare the Walker-Barrett result to the Obama-Romney result if both results come from the same wave (1 or 2). So he could have compared the 50-50 Walker-Barrett result with the equivalent wave 2 54-42 Obama-Romney result (all in wave 2). But there’s no need to do this, because we already have the actual, final, post-weighted exit poll results that have Obama-Romney at 51-44.

Regardless of what wave you look at (or the final post-weighted reuslts), the Obama-Romney margin was 11-14 points above the Walker-Barrett margin.

jd3181 on June 6, 2012 at 4:00 PM

Well done.

libfreeordie on June 6, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Moby! White whale off the port bow!

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:04 PM

Mittbot Marxist alert

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Mittbot Marxist alert

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Bahahaha.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Barone has got it exactly right. If you use different numbers the numbers will be different.

plewis on June 6, 2012 at 4:09 PM

On the other hand, if Michael Barone tells you one thing and an idiot like me tells you something different, Barone’s conclusion is a safe bet to be more accurate. So he may be right — given the exit polls and final results last night, Wisconsin’s a toss-up.


No offense, AP …

… but you nailed it with those two sentences

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:03 PM


On the bright side
, you KNOW your limitations vis a vis someone who has been doing this for DECADES

The numbers Barone is using are not accurate.

*snip*

jd3181 on June 6, 2012 at 4:00 PM


… unlike others who don’t know THE famous line from “Magnum Force”.

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Bahahaha.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:08 PM

This here is an example of how Mitt is a Marxist. He loses the argument so just attacks attacks attacks. Straight out of the Marxist handbook George’s best friend Saul Alinsky wrote. That would be George Romney Mitts dad.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:11 PM

This here is an example of how Mitt is a Marxist. He loses the argument so just attacks attacks attacks. Straight out of the Marxist handbook George’s best friend Saul Alinsky wrote. That would be George Romney Mitts dad.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Does carnival music play inside your head, Steve?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Whe left with the lesser of two evils, it will alwyas be close.

they lie on June 6, 2012 at 3:25 PM

jezus your depressing

DrW on June 6, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Exit question: Should Romney gamble on Wisconsin or focus elsewhere? Remember, he’s got Wisconsinites Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus ready to go bat for him at home. Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

Above and beyond McCain’s states in 2008, Romney will need to win FL, NC, VA, OH, and IN, which would give him a total of 266 Electoral Votes. Indiana is probably red this year, and Obama probably angered NC voters by backing gay marriage right after they voted it down 61-39. So Romney needs to prioritize FL, VA, and OH, but he will still need another state, among remaining tossups WI(10), CO(9), IA(6), NV(6), and NH(4), and Wisconsin is the biggest of the bunch.

Although Romney might have “Wisconsinites Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus ready to go bat for him” in Wisconsin, Romney should not skip the state, but ask them (especially Scott Walker, and also freshman Senator Ron Johnson) for advice on what Wisconsin voters want, and campaign like Walker did. Romney should use Walker’s coattails in November!

Steve Z on June 6, 2012 at 4:14 PM

This here is an example of how Mitt is a Marxist. He loses the argument so just attacks attacks attacks. Straight out of the Marxist handbook George’s best friend Saul Alinsky wrote. That would be George Romney Mitts dad.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Does carnival music play inside your head, Steve?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Troll alert now.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Does carnival music play inside your head, Steve?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Per that video on the other thread…it’s all day Yakity Sax in there.

DanMan on June 6, 2012 at 4:16 PM

I wish you guys would quit telling the Democrats they’re in trouble. I wanted it to be a surprise.

kbTexan on June 6, 2012 at 3:59 PM

Axleshaft’s funereal demeanor lately says it all.

slickwillie2001 on June 6, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Troll alert now.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Steve, if you don’t answer the question, we can’t get you help.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Wisconsin voters, ever hear the term “rode hard and put away wet”??

That is Obama’s view of you…..
He will only come when it serves his purposes……and voters will gladly go vote for him…..pretty sad.

Your state is being taken for granted.

MityMaxx on June 6, 2012 at 4:18 PM

This here is an example of how Mitt is a Marxist. He loses the argument so just attacks attacks attacks. Straight out of the Marxist handbook George’s best friend Saul Alinsky wrote. That would be George Romney Mitts dad.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:11 PM

Does carnival music play inside your head, Steve?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Nope, he jut forgot to take his meds which was quite visible in his yesterday posts when he polluted the walker thread with likewise nonsense (he called Mitt a rabid Marxist lol :)…

jimver on June 6, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Steve Z on June 6, 2012 at 4:14 PM

I believe Wisconsin made clear what they want. Less of that and more of this. In other words, legislative sanity, opportunities for employment and lower taxes. Pretty good offer nationwide and a stark departure from what we have now.

DanMan on June 6, 2012 at 4:20 PM

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