Michael Barone’s re-weighted Wisconsin results: Obama 48, Romney 48

posted at 3:21 pm on June 6, 2012 by Allahpundit

O’s showing against Romney in the exits was the one tiny bit of hope that MSNBC clung to late last night, to the point where Lawrence O’Donnell said, with a straight face, that the big winner in Wisconsin had been … Obama.

Here’s Michael Barone stealing the last little bit of their candy:

The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%. With 92% of the vote in, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s excellent website reports the score as 54%-46% Walker. Let’s say that’s the final results: only 13% of precincts from Milwaukee County and 3% of precincts from Madison’s Dane County — the Democrats’ two reservoirs of big majorities — remain uncounted. It has been emblazoned on mainstream media that the exit poll also showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state 51%-45%. But if you think the exit poll was 4% too Democratic — and that’s in line with exit poll discrepancies with actual vote results over the last decade, as documented by the exit poll pioneer, the late Warren Mitofsky* — that result looks more like 49%-47% Romney. Or assume the remaining Milwaukee County precincts whittle Republican Governor Scott Walker’s margin over Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to 53%-47%, which looks likely, the Obama-Romney numbers would look like 48%-48%.

This is in a state that Obama carried 56%-42% in 2008. But those putative numbers also look very much like the numbers in 2000, when Al Gore carried Wisconsin 47.8%-47.6% over George W. Bush, or the numbers in 2004, when John Kerry carried Wisconsin 49.7%-49.3% over Bush.

Walker ended up winning by slightly less than seven points, which, per Barone’s logic, should mean that Romney actually has a very narrow lead over Obama. Two problems with that, though. First, there were several iterations of exit poll results last night as results came in and, if memory serves, the 51/45 spread for Obama that Barone mentions was only the first of them. The next wave showed Obama’s lead ballooning to 12 points(!) even while it also showed Walker inching out to a four-point lead over Barrett. I lost track of how the exits moved after that (as did lefty Michael Tomasky, who’s otherwise in full “great news for Obama!” spin mode), but ABC seems to have settled on a seven-point Obama lead. If that’s true, then Barone’s “adjustment” analysis would place Obama and Romney in a dead heat. But that leads us to the second complication: He seems to be assuming that there are no crossover voters who prefer both Walker and Obama. I.e., he’s arguing that if the initial Walker/Barrett exit had it 50/50 and Walker ended up winning by seven, you should assume that the same number of voters were erroneously attributed to Obama in the exits when they should have gone to Romney. Is that really safe to assume? Remember, according to the exit poll, fully 60 percent said that governors should be recalled from office only when they’re guilty of misconduct. Could be that there’s some small but significant critical mass of centrist Dems who were queasy about yanking Walker in the middle of this term given the tit-for-tat recall precedent that might set but are prepared to pull the lever for O in November. On the other hand, if Michael Barone tells you one thing and an idiot like me tells you something different, Barone’s conclusion is a safe bet to be more accurate. So he may be right — given the exit polls and final results last night, Wisconsin’s a toss-up.

Then there’s the question of whether the Obama/Romney exit results can be trusted at all. Jay Cost explains:

Here is the question the exit pollsters ask:

If the presidential election were held today, for whom would you vote?

A. Barack Obama, 51 percent.
B. Mitt Romney, 44 percent.
C. Would Not Vote, 3 percent.

What is missing from this is the “undecided” category. It’s not even an option, which to my mind really undercuts the utility of this question. To what extent are Obama and Romney “supporters” just being pushed there because they have no undecided option? Could be a lot. Who knows?

Every “undecided” vote at this point is good news for Mitt because it’s a vote that the incumbent has failed to lock up after three years in office. In which case, yeah, Barone’s conclusion makes more sense. Even if Obama does lead by six or seven points, the results last night suggest that that’s a very soft six or seven. And more good news: Marquette is crowing that their last poll of Wisconsin nailed the outcome by predicting a seven-point Walker win, but Guy Benson notes that the same poll also showed Wisconsin deadlocked between Obama and Romney at 46 apiece. Even in a worst-case scenario, in other words, there’s every reason to believe that Romney’s in contention there, albeit facing an uphill battle to win. Is he willing to spend boatloads of dough, a la Walker himself, to try to take it? Or should he take heart that if Wisconsin is already this close, he’s bound to have even more golden opportunities in other swing states? Sean Trende:

Now, this also might be as good as it gets for Republicans, and again the 2012 general electorate will probably be more Democratic than this one. At the same time, Obama doesn’t want a low-to-mid-single-digit win in the Badger State. That would suggest a very close race nationally. Remember, he won the state by 14 points in 2008 while winning nationally by eight, so anything less than a six-point lead in the state is not a great sign for him.

As a final thought, ask yourself this: In June of 2008, do you think Walker could have withstood a recall election? Or in June of 2006? The 2012 electorate probably won’t look like 2010’s, but this stands as yet another data point that suggests the enthusiasm gap that plagued Republicans in the mid-to-late “aughts” has disappeared.

Josh Kraushaar of National Journal came to the same conclusion: If Obama’s five- to seven-point decline in Wisconsin from 2008 holds true across the board, then he’s in desperately deep trouble in closer swing states like Virginia and Ohio. Exit question: Should Romney gamble on Wisconsin or focus elsewhere? Remember, he’s got Wisconsinites Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus ready to go bat for him at home. Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

Update: Walker himself says the state is competitive but that Romney is certainly still the underdog.


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Is Obama The First Gay President Of The United States or The First Actual Gay President Of The United States?

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:34 PM


Wait …
I thought he was the First Gay Teleprompter of The United States?

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:20 PM

This I can believe. Taking undecided out of the poll makes for a huge Bradley effect potential. Everything I saw last night prior to the results sounded like a 50/50 split according to Fox and slightly favored Obama on MSNBC. They had the electorate so disembled I had a hard time keeping up.

DanMan on June 6, 2012 at 3:41 PM

So are you in agreement that the Tea Party candidate Walker did at least 10 points better than Mitt did?

If so why do you not see this as a problem in November? After all the real campaigning has not even started yet few are paying attention.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:20 PM

steebo77 on June 6, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Wait … I thought he was the First Gay Teleprompter of The United States?

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:20 PM

I do not know about these for sure. But he is definitely the first half African half American President. Probably the first not 100% American President.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Michael Barone is another anti-American neo-con, neo-cons are NOT conservatives, they despise the US, our sovereignty and constitution as much as Obama does. Read Barone’s latest rant, totally in love with the concept of importing more sub Saharan Africans to the US as another source of cheap labor we taxpayers will have to subsidize. Barone doesn’t care about what this does to the US.

He detests US citizens, he wants a banana republic a pig like him can exploit. Like Obama he wants a plantation slavery state, where the US resources can be stolen out from under us, our property seized by eminent domain, he doesn’t care, as long as he profits. Conservatives who hold Barone up are RINOs, who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

Ceolas on June 6, 2012 at 3:50 PM


YOU …


… didn’t take your meds today, did you?

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Wisconsin likes an underdog… Brewers, Packers, Bucks…. need I say more?

E L Frederick (Sniper One) on June 6, 2012 at 4:23 PM

?

t on June 6, 2012 at 4:26 PM

heard this was the 68th anniversary of D-Day…

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

You betcha! Back when most men were men and not cowardly wusses.

Vince on June 6, 2012 at 4:27 PM

I believe someone did an analysis awhile ago that showed five paths O had to win and he had to take WI in all of them.

So, Romney should spend some time and money in WI, if for no other reason than to force the Dems to defend it and spend yet more there.

The lefties and Dems have got to be as demoralized as ever there now. And with Walker’s big win, the psychology of voting with the winning side may be worth a point or two.

Mayday on June 6, 2012 at 4:27 PM

When Allah uses that close-up of O, I wonder if he likes to imagine that the Prez is glaring directly at him. Because that’s how I like to imagine it! :D

cynccook on June 6, 2012 at 4:28 PM

I think I heard that Romney was pulling about even in the western swing states, but let’s worry about PA-WI-NH-CO/NM/NV later and focus on the 3-2 of Rove’s 3-2-1 plan. If VA starts turning for the worse, we’ll need to keep ourselves competitive in other battlegrounds and hope the breaks go our way.

The Count on June 6, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

Romney should campaign there and go for the win. It’d be the stake through the heart of Obama.

Besides, the Dems probably hadn’t planned on expending much money or energy defending a blue stronghold. The more they expend defending, the less they have to win elsewhere.

BacaDog on June 6, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Above and beyond McCain’s states in 2008, Romney will need to win FL, NC, VA, OH, and IN, which would give him a total of 266 Electoral Votes. Indiana is probably red this year, and Obama probably angered NC voters by backing gay marriage right after they voted it down 61-39. So Romney needs to prioritize FL, VA, and OH, but he will still need another state, among remaining tossups WI(10), CO(9), IA(6), NV(6), and NH(4), and Wisconsin is the biggest of the bunch.

Steve Z on June 6, 2012 at 4:14 PM

Romney will take ALL of these states

Good post and you are right – Romney does need to spend time in Wisonsin … and in Colorado – because they are both going to be in play and if they start leaning red … October will be a VERY bad month for the Obama campaign

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Exit question: Should Romney gamble on Wisconsin or focus elsewhere? Remember, he’s got Wisconsinites Scott Walker, Paul Ryan, and Reince Priebus ready to go bat for him at home. Does that mean he can skip the state and hope that they deliver on his behalf or should he take their success as encouragement to campaign there?

I think he should plan some visits this summer and see how it looks in late August…if polls are tight, go all in. He doesn’t “need” Wisconsin if he’s winning, at the very least, the Bush 2000 states, but if he can keep WI in play Obama will have to play defense there, which is money and time not spent in VA, FL, OH, etc. Plus, winning WI means he can afford to lose VA (the state I’m most concerned about, frankly) and still win (I think, if I’ve got the EVs right).

If polls show Obama winning WI in late August, then I think Mitt should focus more on those Bush states.

changer1701 on June 6, 2012 at 4:42 PM

YOU …

… didn’t take your meds today, did you?

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Projection?

He is spot on.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Romney will take ALL of these states

Good post and you are right – Romney does need to spend time in Wisonsin … and in Colorado – because they are both going to be in play and if they start leaning red … October will be a VERY bad month for the Obama campaign

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:35 PM

Dream on.

Walker race just proved that Mitt does 10 points worse than a conservative Republican.

Now I agree McCain was a bit of a RINO but not to the degree Romney is. Plus a lot of us are furious that McCain was our nominee then and now Mitt who is even worse is. Many will never pull the lever for Mitt.

I have no clue how you lying Mittbots think Mitt can overcome 10 points. Lying because of Walker Proof.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:53 PM

Wisconsin?! Hokey Smokes, Bullwinkle!!

Knott Buyinit on June 6, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Projection?

He is spot on.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:49 PM


Too late, Moby

Somebody else already called you out on you not taking your meds.

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 5:02 PM

There are two fundamental problems with exit polls.

1. They are self-selecting in that many folks flat-out refuse to cooperate with the pollsters.
2. They are often victimized by the disingenuous who, for whatever reason, provide false or misleading information to the pollsters.

They are entertainment and nothing more.

either orr on June 6, 2012 at 5:07 PM

I have no clue how you lying Mittbots think Mitt can overcome 10 points. Lying because of Walker Proof.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 4:53 PM


I know you are a slow learner.

I know you don’t process anything that does not align with the outcome you want.

Some of us used to play in this game. We know the mechanics of it. We know the right data sources and look at them to this day.

(Barone knows the entire country off the top of his head. Un-freaking-believable.)

And the last thing we EVER give credence to is a PUBLIC poll of any sort.

Go volunteer for a campaign and share with them your insights on public polling …

… you’ll be making up signs and other things to keep you far away from the ADULTS and the PUBLIC.

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 5:11 PM

I heard this was the 68th anniversary of D-Day…

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 3:29 PM

Yeah, and not a ention anywhere, including here. Technically and timewise it was yesterday. Nada, zilch nothing that I hae see. I was priveleged to be at the 50th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. We saled from England and just looked at the coast. Unspoken agreement to drop anchor and just look at what we acomplished that day. The sheer bravery!There were 11 of us weeping openly . Our ages were from 91 to 18. The 91 and 84 were two survivors from that awesome day.

katy the mean old lady on June 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Barone can’t do the analysis he wants to based on clumsily applying a delta to a percentage split that’s been reported in the media based on some unknown accumulation of exit polls. He’d need to take the raw exit polling data and apply a more complex formula.

Obama needs to be worried. Yes, there are states that will elect Republican governors and Democrats to national office in the same election (e.g., New York, Massachusetts, California). So, you can’t just say that because the voters defeated a recall of a Republican governor that they will surely vote for Romney.

That said, Wisconsin was historically a huge Big Labor state. They loves them some unions. Yet their voters resoundingly smacked down public employee unions four times (electing Walker to begin with, re-electing the Supreme Court justice, and defeating two sets of recall elections). That signals a sizable, sustained shift in political opinion that should be very troubling to Obama.

Outlander on June 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

Sorry about the spelling. Can’t type and cry.

katy the mean old lady on June 6, 2012 at 5:34 PM

katy the mean old lady on June 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

My father in law who died a few years ago was a decorated WWII vet. I have summarized all the letters that he sent home to his wife during his time in the service for the rest of the family.
My wife and I are planning to take our son on a trip to Europe to retrace his travels. We are never going to forget.

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Now that liberals, unions and the mainstream media have been exposed for the lunacy they represent, sychphants like Barone will become what they have always been….babbling fools.

volsense on June 6, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Michael Barone is another anti-American neo-con, neo-cons are NOT conservatives, they despise the US, our sovereignty and constitution as much as Obama does. Read Barone’s latest rant, totally in love with the concept of importing more sub Saharan Africans to the US as another source of cheap labor we taxpayers will have to subsidize. Barone doesn’t care about what this does to the US.

He detests US citizens, he wants a banana republic a pig like him can exploit. Like Obama he wants a plantation slavery state, where the US resources can be stolen out from under us, our property seized by eminent domain, he doesn’t care, as long as he profits. Conservatives who hold Barone up are RINOs, who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.

Ceolas on June 6, 2012 at 3:50 PM

YOU …

… didn’t take your meds today, did you?

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 4:23 PM

Ah, Ceolas might express himself somewhat colorfully, but he could be right. While I strongly support neo-con positions usually, an individual neo-con may come up with a rather insane idea. I wouldn’t be shocked to read Barone advocating the lunatic position of important more Africans as cheap labor and not worrying about what percentage happen to be Muslims in love with jihad. I’ll google about and see if I run into what Ceolas is talking about.

thuja on June 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

My wife and I are planning to take our son on a trip to Europe to retrace his travels. We are never going to forget.

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Do it! It will be something you will never regret. Visit our cemetaries there, espesially Ardennes. Talk to some older Belgians. They do not forget. Oh, hell, now I’crying again.

katy the mean old lady on June 6, 2012 at 5:47 PM

Update: Walker himself says the state is competitive but that Romney is certainly still the underdog.

He’s a smart guy and that is exactly what he should have said.

CW on June 6, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Can anyone here spare a comment or two? We really should get last nights open thread to 3000. I mean we only need 34 comments and we’re there. I’ve waited patiently all day, thinking, its just got to get to 3000, Yet there she sits 34 shy. Come on, what do say. One last victory lap. One last big dance. One last hurrah! Anyhow OT. Its here. Thank you for your consideration. Oh and OT.

Bmore on June 6, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Ah, Ceolas might express himself somewhat colorfully, but he could be right. While I strongly support neo-con positions usually, an individual neo-con may come up with a rather insane idea. I wouldn’t be shocked to read Barone advocating the lunatic position of important more Africans as cheap labor and not worrying about what percentage happen to be Muslims in love with jihad. I’ll google about and see if I run into what Ceolas is talking about.

thuja on June 6, 2012 at 5:46 PM

The googling went much easier than I thought. Ceolas was right.

thuja on June 6, 2012 at 5:50 PM

Can anyone here spare a comment or two? We really should get last nights open thread to 3000. I mean we only need 34 comments and we’re there. I’ve waited patiently all day, thinking, its just got to get to 3000, Yet there she sits 34 shy. Come on, what do say. One last victory lap. One last big dance. One last hurrah! Anyhow OT. Its here. Thank you for your consideration. Oh and OT.

Bmore on June 6, 2012 at 5:49 PM

Why this fascination with a number? What do we win?

thuja on June 6, 2012 at 5:52 PM

Why this fascination with a number? What do we win?

thuja on June 6, 2012 at 5:52 PM

We’ve already one. Its just the icing. Just one comment. Please?

Bmore on June 6, 2012 at 5:56 PM

The problem I see with Barone’s analysis is that Dems were a bit depressed because polls showed them trailing Walker and Republicans were super-energized. But in a national election with Obama on the ticked, I think the Democrats will be more energized and their turnout higher.

So the truth is probably somewhere between Barone’s weighting and the official poll results.

Mitchell Heisman on June 6, 2012 at 5:57 PM

Walker wins this big, then it shouldn’t even be close between Romney and Obama. Come on, folks, ask yourselves why it IS close.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:07 PM

Walker wins this big, then it shouldn’t even be close between Romney and Obama. Come on, folks, ask yourselves why it IS close.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:07 PM

You’re completely failing at suppressing the vote?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Allah, you’ve got to stop using that photo (and the winking one) of Obama. Tired of looking at such a big shot of gobshyte’s face.

Vanilla Salt on June 6, 2012 at 6:18 PM

Walker wins this big, then it shouldn’t even be close between Romney and Obama. Come on, folks, ask yourselves why it IS close.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:07 PM

You’re completely failing at suppressing the vote?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:15 PM

A non-answer, as usual. How can I suppress the vote? I’m not the candidate.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:24 PM

A non-answer, as usual. How can I suppress the vote? I’m not the candidate.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:24 PM

So what is exactly the point of your endless trolling?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:25 PM

A non-answer, as usual. How can I suppress the vote? I’m not the candidate.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:24 PM

So what is exactly the point of your endless trolling?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:25 PM

“Troll” = anyone who asks a question I don’t have the brain cells to answer. You more slobbering ‘bots are going to have to find some new shtuick eventually.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Walker wins this big, then it shouldn’t even be close between Romney and Obama. Come on, folks, ask yourselves why it IS close.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:07 PM

It’s close because the only people willing to run against Obama on the Republican ticket were are

1. Mitt Romney.
2. People who couldn’t even beat Mitt Romney.

What’s your point? You just want to b*tch and moan? Or do you have a credible alternative to Romney who has not been considered?

RINO in Name Only on June 6, 2012 at 6:29 PM

“Troll” = anyone who asks a question I don’t have the brain cells to answer. You more slobbering ‘bots are going to have to find some new shtuick eventually.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:27 PM

You are a troll. You are a one-note wonder that repeats “Romney sucks” ad nauseum. Anyone disagrees, you call them a “Mittbot”. I’ve never seen you involved in any other sort of exchange.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Michael Barone is another anti-American neo-con, neo-cons are NOT conservatives, they despise the US, our sovereignty and constitution as much as Obama does. Read Barone’s latest rant, totally in love with the concept of importing more sub Saharan Africans to the US as another source of cheap labor we taxpayers will have to subsidize. Barone doesn’t care about what this does to the US.

Ceolas on June 6, 2012 at 3:50 PM

I read that article too in disgust. I have zero respect for Michael Barone or the multicuturalist/open-border neoconservatives.

Here’s the article Ceola is talking about:

http://www.aei.org/article/society-and-culture/immigration/america-looks-like-texas-not-california/

Punchenko on June 6, 2012 at 6:34 PM

What’s your point? You just want to b*tch and moan? Or do you have a credible alternative to Romney who has not been considered?

RINO in Name Only on June 6, 2012 at 6:29 PM

The point is to inject some reality. Not everyone who voted for Walker are going to vote for Romney, obviously.

You are a troll. You are a one-note wonder that repeats “Romney sucks” ad nauseum. Anyone disagrees, you call them a “Mittbot”. I’ve never seen you involved in any other sort of exchange.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:31 PM

I’m someone who disagrees with you and you don’t have the wherewithal to counter anything I say with anything other than the usual “TROLLLLL!!!!!!!” garbage. If saying “Romney sucks” over and over is trolling, then so is saying little more than “Romney’s gonna kick him some Obama ASSSSSSS in November! BOOOO_YAH!” ad nauseam.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

I’m someone who disagrees with you and you don’t have the wherewithal to counter anything I say with anything other than the usual “TROLLLLL!!!!!!!” garbage. If saying “Romney sucks” over and over is trolling, then so is saying little more than “Romney’s gonna kick him some Obama ASSSSSSS in November! BOOOO_YAH!” ad nauseam.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Thank you for proving my point.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:38 PM

The point is to inject some reality. Not everyone who voted for Walker are going to vote for Romney, obviously.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:37 PM

No one said otherwise, so you aren’t injecting a thing. Instead, you instructed people to ask themselves why it should be close. Presumably, the answer is that Romney is not an amazingly trong candidate. So what?
Are you advocating we go with someone else? If so, who, and how, and why would they be better?

RINO in Name Only on June 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

katy the mean old lady on June 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

Here.

kingsjester on June 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Are you advocating we go with someone else? If so, who, and how, and why would they be better?

RINO in Name Only on June 6, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Mittbot!

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Here’s Michael Barone stealing the last little bit of their candy:

hee hee.

Tim_CA on June 6, 2012 at 7:15 PM

As Rush said on his show today, he wonders if the bho/team know if they can believe polls any longer? I hope people, R’s, are not telling the truth when they are asked on exit polls? I just hope that its the case? Me thinks things are much, much worse for bho than he or team has a clue about?
L

I fully admit that I’d lie like the proverbial rug if I was surveyed, yes I would.

I’d ask for forgiveness later, but yeah…I’d so say I was voting for O.

Bob’s Kid on June 6, 2012 at 3:39 PM

I usually pick the weirdest fringe candidate on the ballot and tell the exit pollster that’s who I voted for. :-)

Mary in LA on June 6, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Walker wins this big, then it shouldn’t even be close between Romney and Obama. Come on, folks, ask yourselves why it IS close.

ddrintn on June 6, 2012 at 6:07 PM

It’s close because the only people willing to run against Obama on the Republican ticket were are

1. Mitt Romney.
2. People who couldn’t even beat Mitt Romney.

What’s your point? You just want to b*tch and moan? Or do you have a credible alternative to Romney who has not been considered?

RINO in Name Only on June 6, 2012 at 6:29 PM

Why does it matter how Mitt got close to the Nomination?

One thing for sure. Republicans love to run the wrong candidate. We have run five RINOS but they all lost since Nixon but here we are.

This is a very valid reason. Mitt ran on him being the best candidate because he would do far better than a Conservative. Well here we have positive proof this was a bald faced lie. Why do you try to keep this lie alive?

Mitt can not win this. He has at least a 10 point disadvantage. If enough rebelled at the convention he could be forced out. He should be forced out.

3: Mitt won by lying he would get more votes than conservatives. He is getting double didgits less.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

kingsjester on June 6, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Great piece, KJ. I read you blog everyday…keep doing what your doing.

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Trende misreads the Republican electorate. It is not enthusiasm that drives us, (who among us can actually get “enthused” about Romney?), but stern determination. Determination that we will not willingly go down the road to socialsm, ruin, and yes, serfdom.

LooseCannon on June 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

You are a troll. You are a one-note wonder that repeats “Romney sucks” ad nauseum. Anyone disagrees, you call them a “Mittbot”. I’ve never seen you involved in any other sort of exchange.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 6:31 PM

You are the one who would rather do personal attacks than engage in discussion.

The purpose of this blog is discussion. It purpose is not a personal webpage sole dedicated to getting Romney elected and shutting up anyone up that does not like him. That would be Romneys site go there and all will agree with you. You can have useless discussions.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Trende misreads the Republican electorate. It is not enthusiasm that drives us, (who among us can actually get “enthused” about Romney?), but stern determination. Determination that we will not willingly go down the road to socialsm, ruin, and yes, serfdom.

LooseCannon on June 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Romney is an admitted Progessive and Liberal Moderate. Either are all for going down this road.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Mitt can not win this. He has at least a 10 point disadvantage.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

What in the phuck are you talking about Moby?

Most of the major polls have them essentially within the margin of error. Would you take ddrntn and get a life. You’re a bore.

CW on June 6, 2012 at 7:48 PM

d1carter on June 6, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Thank you!

kingsjester on June 6, 2012 at 7:55 PM

I have a good friend from Wisconsin, and they are all liberal Jews. Which still seems an oxymoron. He says they all voted for Scott Walker because he balanced the budget. But he said they still favor Obama. So I said, “So they didn’t learn anything?” Anyway, being a liberal must mean that your brain has to do back flip synapses to vote against a Dem…it’s crazy and irrational.

kirkill on June 6, 2012 at 8:01 PM

Barone can’t do the analysis he wants to based on clumsily applying a delta to a percentage split that’s been reported in the media based on some unknown accumulation of exit polls. He’d need to take the raw exit polling data and apply a more complex formula.

*snip*

Outlander on June 6, 2012 at 5:31 PM

I can not speak to what he has done in this instance since I don’t know specifically.

Historically, Barone LOVES to take the vote totals on a precinct by precinct basis and crosstab them with previous elections and the current and preivous polling data sorted down to the same level when he can get hold of it.

You use the actual election voting to sieve the polling data, the questions asked and demographics on people doing the poll if you can get it.

Everyone who is dissing his methodology as simple “this subtracted from the overall total for Obama” is missing the mark.

Before any moby’s or trolls try to snark about “Barone-bot” …

… I think Bill CLinton is a politician on par with Ronald Reagan. He is brilliant, driven and enjoys the nuts and bolts of the job.

But I didn’t vote for him, ever. I did get to shake his and Hillary’s hands at a Democratic rope line in 1992. One of my brothers is a long time Democratic Party participant.

I was very vocal that he should have been convicted by the Senate for perjury. He had no need to lie to the judge. Personally, I think his biggest issue was Hillary finding out the truth.

And then we have certain “tantrum voters” that like to call me and others Mitt-bots when we … don’t agree with them.

Seriously? Have those folks not emotionally advanced past junior high?

There is an eternity to go until November. Relax. Get outside more.

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Romney is an admitted Progessive and Liberal Moderate. Either are all for going down this road.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Given, Romney is far from ideal, but he is not Obama. Electing Romney, along with achieving functioning conservative majorities in both the House and Senate, is but the first step in getting to where we need to go. As I said, the critical factor is our determination. Should Romney not toe the line and promote conservative measures, he will receive a primary challenge in 2016, have no doubt. Think long term.

LooseCannon on June 6, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Michael Barone’s re-weighted Wisconsin results: Obama 48, Romney 48

Okay … And this June 6, uh, re-weighting, is meaningful how?

Why is AP so obsessed with these polls?

How many times do we need to re-learn that such polls are only worth the methodology used (which is largely hidden from us) and the honesty/credibility/objectivity of the poll takers themselves? And besides that, numbers mean NOTHING at this point. In fact, they mean less than nothing because, on the whole, they impart more confusion and inconsistency than clarity.

minnesoter on June 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Yeah, and not a ention anywhere, including here. Technically and timewise it was yesterday. Nada, zilch nothing that I hae see. I was priveleged to be at the 50th anniversary of the D-Day invasion. We saled from England and just looked at the coast. Unspoken agreement to drop anchor and just look at what we acomplished that day. The sheer bravery!There were 11 of us weeping openly . Our ages were from 91 to 18. The 91 and 84 were two survivors from that awesome day.

katy the mean old lady on June 6, 2012 at 5:29 PM

I was surprised that Ed didn’t put something up. The Boss Emeritus has a post. I visited the beaches in 1997 since my dad and his three brothers were WWII vets. My uncle parachuted into St. Mere Eglise on D-day with the 101st and my father was in Arromanches on V-J day. They all came home safely. The American Cemetery is hauntingly poignant and beautiful and to look at the cliffs in person, well, there are no words. We’ll never see another generation as selfless and patriotic as the Greatest Generation.

TxAnn56 on June 6, 2012 at 8:29 PM

3: Mitt won by lying he would get more votes than conservatives. He is getting double didgits less.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

What the hell does any of this mean? He “lied” by saying he thought he’d get more votes? What specifically did he say, to the effect that he would get more votes, and what is your basis for refuting it?

In any case, how could such a statement be a “lie”?

A prediction cannot be a “lie” – it can only be an error, at worst, unless you are suggesting he had some insider knowledge that the rest of us didn’t, in the form of a crystal ball.

Moreover, in this case, it’s a statement that can never be verified one way or another, since he his primary opponents will not simultaneously run against Obama, so we’ll never be able to prove that they would have or wouldn’t have one better.

In any case, you certainly can’t say it was a “lie” that he’d get any number of votes, since the election hasn’t started yet!

Also, “double-digits less” than whom? Which conservatives is he getting “double digits less” than?

Does anything you say have any meaning whatsoever? Are you actually trying to make some kind of argument here, or are you just pasting together vague anti-romney phrases together in a barely intelligible fashion hoping that somehow you’ll come up with a coherent thought?

And, of course, you refused to answer the question: who specifically do you propose would do better, and why?

RINO in Name Only on June 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

The best part for me last night was putting things into perspective.

Obama’s campaign is like a furball covered with scotch tape that’s being toyed with by some pit bull with lipstick.

Twitchy idea: #Obama’s Campaign is like….

Key West Reader on June 6, 2012 at 8:24 PM

Key West Reader on June 6, 2012 at 8:36 PM

You are the one who would rather do personal attacks than engage in discussion.

The purpose of this blog is discussion. It purpose is not a personal webpage sole dedicated to getting Romney elected and shutting up anyone up that does not like him. That would be Romneys site go there and all will agree with you. You can have useless discussions.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Steve, you’re calling Romney a Marxist. What serious conversation do you expect from us? Questions about your life experience on Mars in the unicorn circus?

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

We’ll never see another generation as selfless and patriotic as the Greatest Generation.

I appreciate the sentiment behind the words, but we have had a number of Great Generations. Take the Civil War generation as a prime example. Talk about guts, and grit, and honor. Or the WWI participants. Korea, Vietnam. But, yes, the WWII generation was very special, and it is painful to see them leaving us.

minnesoter on June 6, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Mitt won by lying he would get more votes than conservatives. He is getting double didgits less.

Steveangell on June 6, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Steve,

The 2012 election is simple. Will America declare Herself Socialist, or not.

I’m thinking no.

Key West Reader on June 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM

Steve,

The 2012 election is simple. Will America declare Herself Socialist, or not.

I’m thinking no.

Key West Reader on June 6, 2012 at 8:45 PM

No no! According to Steve, Mitt would make us COMMUNIST, being that Mitt’s a Marxist.

Chuck Schick on June 6, 2012 at 8:50 PM

D Wasserman Schultz ‏@DWStweets

Despite the disappointing outcome, #WIrecall effort sent Scott Walker a message that his brand of divisive politics is offensive & wrong.
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I’d like to see an audio/video montage of D”Witchface”S calling everything and everyone she disagrees with “Offensive”. There must be a thousand examples out there. She’s built a career on calling people “Offensive”. “Offensive” is her favorite word.

jaime on June 6, 2012 at 9:25 PM

More “good news”– Allah opened his bedroom curtains.

leftnomore on June 6, 2012 at 9:36 PM

How many times do we need to re-learn that such polls are only worth the methodology used (which is largely hidden from us) and the honesty/credibility/objectivity of the poll takers themselves? And besides that, numbers mean NOTHING at this point. In fact, they mean less than nothing because, on the whole, they impart more confusion and inconsistency than clarity.

minnesoter on June 6, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Any poll the public sees is advancing someone’s agenda. Polls done to current campaign expectations cost a lot of money. I am not aware of any publicly published polls being done to campaign standards.

“Two roads diverged in a wood and I …

This does not mean, as an example, that Fox is continually advancing a neo-con agenda. Fox polls are for entertainment. Fox polls tend over time to actually under-represent the actual percentage of people who oppose the Obama administration agenda.

“… I took the one less traveled by.”

Internal campaign polling is accurate … or you are wasting ALL the other money you are spending. Obama staying out of Wisconsin was no accident. I’d bet dollars to dimes their internal polling showed the recall had no traction months ago.

“And that has made all the difference.”

Romney likely stayed out of the state at the request of Governor Walker’s campaign. No doubt, in a state like Wisconsin, his presence would not have been a net positive.

“Robert Frost is pretty well known. A professor of mine who studied under Frost insisted he meant that poem in an absolutely literal sense. Life, on the other hand, isn’t always so straight forward.”

PolAgnostic on June 6, 2012 at 9:45 PM

He’s definitely the “First of the Worst” Presidents.

The spin is amazing. If we could just strap a generator to Liberals we might be able to solve the energy problem that they believe we have.

ProfShadow on June 6, 2012 at 10:00 PM

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