Jay Carney: Don’t draw too many conclusions about November from a Scott Walker victory; Update: Exit poll shows Walker by five?

posted at 5:25 pm on June 5, 2012 by Allahpundit

In case you’re wondering whether the White House is still expecting Wisconsin to go red tonight, the answer appears to be yes.

“A race where one side is outspending the other by a ratio of at least 8 to 1 probably won’t tell us much about a future race,” press secretary Jay Carney said.

“I know the president is aware of the election. I think he’s got some other responsibilities,” Carney said. “I know that he’s not following it minute by minute … You know that he tweeted about it earlier. He stands with the Democratic candidate, Mayor Barrett, in this race.”

And so it came to be that on the day of one of the most momentous elections in modern American history, which may well shape the future of public employee unions across the United States, the White House press secretary described the president’s involvement by saying, “You know that he tweeted about it earlier.” Perfection. You really came through for your side on this one, champ.

Don’t pop the champagne yet, though. Via dKos, a local reporter claims that the city clerk in Madison is now predicting turnout of — no typo — 119 percent, meaning that a huge chunk of people are showing up at the polls to register for the first time and then vote. If that’s true, it’s a testament to labor’s organization: Madison is a liberal stronghold so they’re going to try to bank as many votes there as they can. Elsewhere, National Review’s Robert Costa tweets, “A top Wis. GOPer tells me that if Dane [County] gets historic, 80/90% turnout, this thing could go either way…” The clerk in Dane County told the Weekly Standard’s John McCormack a few hours ago that they’re looking at turnout of … 75 percent. Dude, I’m nervous.

Three and a half hours until the polls close. While we wait, enjoy this contentious Frank Luntz focus group of Wisconsin via Guy Benson.

Update: Even I can’t go full eeyore on you at a moment like this. According to another report, early turnout in heavily Republican Waukesha County was even higher than it was for the 2008 presidential election.

Update: Early exit poll info is starting to trickle out from CBS. A bright spot: 50 percent say they approve of the changes to the collective bargaining law versus 48 percent who disapprove.

Update: If you were reading blogs in November 2004 you know just how wrong early exit polls can be, but for what it’s worth, Drudge says a source tells him that Walker is on track for a five-point win. That would be right in line with the polls over the last few weeks, but if Democratic turnout really is as sky high as those reports out of Madison suggest, it’s hard to believe Walker’s margin will be that comfortable.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

ALT!!!

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:12 PM

I’m drugged up due to a back problem-don’t EVER buy a mattress from Ashley-but I wouldn’t miss this for anything.

annoyinglittletwerp on June 5, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I haven’t had a drink in months. If Walker loses (he better not) I am going to be real sorry I didn’t stop at the liquor store on the way home from work.

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Watch the presidential polls closely. Depending on how things go, you might want to be prepared for the November election.

Just in case…

kakypat on June 5, 2012 at 7:18 PM

*clink*

petefrt on June 5, 2012 at 7:16 PM

*clink*

OmahaConservative on June 5, 2012 at 7:18 PM

The unions didn’t bail as they made a $21 million “investment”.

Steve Eggleston on June 5, 2012 at 6:54 PM

But if it is taxpayer money, shouldn’t it be reimbursed?

/Next shoe to fall.

Key West Reader on June 5, 2012 at 7:20 PM

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:15 PM

yup

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Watch the presidential polls closely. Depending on how things go, you might want to be prepared for the November election.

Just in case…

kakypat on June 5, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I figure that’s a margarita night – win or lose

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:20 PM

annoyinglittletwerp on June 5, 2012 at 7:18 PM

ugh….hang in there

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Just voted in small town Mondovi. Poll worker (old timer) says “Lots of new voters, I’ve never heard their names around here before.” Saw young scrub with multiple face piercings come in, “I’m new to town and need to vote. What do I need to do to vote? Was registered in before.” Looks really bad to me, just on those anecdotes. Two other poll workers are known Libs. Dude, I do not feel good about this.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

That’s Mondovi, Wisconsin, BTW.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:20 PM

count me in :)

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

I figure that’s a margarita night – win or lose

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:20 PM

I hear ya’!

On election day, 2008, I left the country. I might not be able to do that this time, so booze it is.

kakypat on June 5, 2012 at 7:22 PM

… and the previous post shoudl read that the young scrub with multiple face piercings “… Was living in (another town) before.” sorry. But Dude, I’m still nervous. Very, very nervous.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Except she wasn’t clever. She was incompetent-incompetent enough that she isn’t running the Waukesha recount.

Betenoire on June 5, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Clever enough to fool you and most of the media into thinking she’s not in charge tonight?:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/post/wisconsin-recall-spotlight-shines-on-waukesha-county-clerk-kathy-nickolaus/2012/06/05/gJQAaQ5RGV_blog.html

http://www.salon.com/2012/06/05/the_woman_who_could_spoil_wisconsin/singleton/

She isn’t running the recount tonight… but her deputy is. Nickolaus is still county clerk, and she will still be helping direct operations in Waukesha tonight, she just won’t officially be tabulating votes. But again, her deputy will be taking on those official duties, and it sure looks like Nickolaus will still be hanging around the office running the show, even if she isn’t counting the ticket stubs.

Lawdawg86 on June 5, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Just voted in small town Mondovi. Poll worker (old timer) says “Lots of new voters, I’ve never heard their names around here before.” Saw young scrub with multiple face piercings come in, “I’m new to town and need to vote. What do I need to do to vote? Was registered in before.” Looks really bad to me, just on those anecdotes. Two other poll workers are known Libs. Dude, I do not feel good about this.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Which way does Mondovi usually vote?

They can have hundreds of people like this, but they will need thousands.

Of course, it would be best if the Republicans on the recall ballot could win beyond the margin of fraud.

kakypat on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:24 PM

^eeyore alert*

cripe….

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

young scrub with multiple face piercings

Relax. Sounds like a conservative.

taternuggets on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Just voted in small town Mondovi. Poll worker (old timer) says “Lots of new voters, I’ve never heard their names around here before.” Saw young scrub with multiple face piercings come in, “I’m new to town and need to vote. What do I need to do to vote? Was registered in before.” Looks really bad to me, just on those anecdotes. Two other poll workers are known Libs. Dude, I do not feel good about this.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Sounds like the occupy filthy 99% is out in force in WI

neuquenguy on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

/And having some wine!

Key West Reader on June 5, 2012 at 6:05 PM

*clink*

OmahaConservative on June 5, 2012 at 6:09 PM

I’m in starting with a Malbec. *clink*

MontanaMmmm on June 5, 2012 at 7:01 PM

*clink*

petefrt on June 5, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Splendid…splendid. I’m on a no-carb diet, so I’m going with Jameson.

*clink*

Jaibones on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Lawdawg86 on June 5, 2012 at 7:25 PM

I meant she isn’t running the initial count tonight, not the recount. Hopefully a recount won’t be necessary.

Lawdawg86 on June 5, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Just voted in the Pyrite State, don’t want to call shenanigans just yet, but voter roll said I voted by mail, and I’ve never voted by mail while at my current address because I pretty much live next door to my polling place. (Even took in my voter guide to show that the card requesting an absentee ballot was still attached).

I was allowed to vote in person on a provisional (non-partisan) ballot.

Makes me wonder who Zombie LCRM voted for.

Left Coast Right Mind on June 5, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Katypat at 7:26 – it’s in Buffalo county which went for Prosser in the WSC race.

cmsinaz at 7:26 – guilty as charged. please forgive.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

and the previous post shoudl read that the young scrub with multiple face piercings “… Was living in (another town) before.” sorry. But Dude, I’m still nervous. Very, very nervous.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:24 PM

with the dumbo-dems track record lately of things blowing up in their faces, wouldnt it be nice if all those provisional ballots were examined and checked and widespread fraud was discovered on the barret side, and a nationwide voter ID law wild fire was sparked by the “wisconsin recall debacle of 2012″?

t8stlikchkn on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Sounds like the occupy filthy 99% is out in force in WI

neuquenguy on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Do the occupy vermin know that union workers actually have jobs?

Jaibones on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

taternuggets: hahahahahaha. yeah, that’s what he looked like. “conservative.”

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:20 PM
count me in :)

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Hmm. I might. mightdisclose my recipie in celebration of the end of the socialist experimentation and the defeat of the greatest fraud ever to appear on the World’s stage. To toast the buffoon and his beefaletto!

Key West Reader on June 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

If you believe that the Dem urban machines would have found 7,500 more votes if Waukesha had reported its full numbers first, then she was very clever. Nickolaus was a good soldier, and she fell on her sword afterwards.

Lawdawg86 on June 5, 2012 at 7:12 PM

If you want to believe she is clever knock yourself out, I can’t stop you. What I can point out is that she had a pretty solid record of arrogance about “her system” before the election and when the fall out came it wasn’t just the left skewering her.

Betenoire on June 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

you’re not alone buddy, i’m worried too

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

*clink*

Jaibones on June 5, 2012 at 7:26 PM

*clink*

OmahaConservative on June 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

The clean version of my comments – SECURE THE WIN!

Steve Eggleston on June 5, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Couldn’t find it exactly but I liked “Pretty please, with sugar on top, clean that effin car.” Great movie.

arnold ziffel on June 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Makes me wonder who Zombie LCRM voted for.

Left Coast Right Mind on June 5, 2012 at 7:27 PM

I could take a guess, hopefully he voted only once.

neuquenguy on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Left Coast Right Mind on June 5, 2012 at 7:27 PM

darn it…you’re ballot will probably get counted in the next day or so

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Katypat at 7:26 – it’s in Buffalo county which went for Prosser in the WSC race.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Thank you! You live in a very good area. ;o)

kakypat on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Argh. Can’t Fox pre-empt Shemp Smith on important nights? Sheesh!

Key West Reader on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

My husband was just listening to an audio of the Chris Plante radio show and a guy is on a bus with a bunch of Auto workers going to WI to vote. For what it is worth, here is the youtube.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWtnnZ3j0Lk

Cindy Munford on June 5, 2012 at 7:08 PM

I’m listening.. not sure this isn’t a hoax. He’s talking in an animated tone on a cell supposedly on a bus load of Michigan United Auto workers going to register and vote for Barret.

I’m not sure I buy this.. not because the dems wouldn’t pull something like this.. we know they would. Just that why is he t6alking loud and not having these rabid dems question who he’s talking too?

It just don’t feel right.. So far only this one call with no confirmation.. so till they have more I’m skeptical about this call being real.

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Da^^n the Left, their ideas are garbage but their organization deserves my grudging respect.

David on June 5, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Key West Reader on June 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

now you have to KWR :)

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Dems touting these Wis exit #s: Obama would do better job with economy than Romney, 45-37; Obama would help the middle class more, 48-35

Walker is toast. This is really depressing.

andy85719 on June 5, 2012 at 7:31 PM

OPEN THREAD has begun :)

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Allah has the Open Thread up if you are interested in moving the party over there.

Bmore on June 5, 2012 at 7:32 PM

God bless the Wisconsin Conservatives.

**clink!**

kingsjester on June 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Argh. Can’t Fox pre-empt Shemp Smith on important nights? Sheesh!

Key West Reader on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

I won’t turn it on until the polls close…

OmahaConservative on June 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

andy85719 on June 5, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Good lord, you’re transparent. Where did all the real troll talent go?

a capella on June 5, 2012 at 7:33 PM

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

mark – i listen to chris everyday. and that guy who called in is a semi-regular. he’s always been pretty straight-up. i dont know if they have it on the tape they are playing but he said that he was going to check back in with him thru-out the day. i assume chris will open tomorrow with an update on this guy. if he was able to keep up with him during the day. i have no idea, but that was my impression, as an everyday listener.

t8stlikchkn on June 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

andy85719,

After reading some of your comments over the last week you’re either a concern troll or you need to not let the whim of every poll and rumor bring you down.

INC on June 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 7:30 PM

I hope it is a hoax.

Cindy Munford on June 5, 2012 at 7:36 PM

i assume chris will open tomorrow with an update on this guy. if he was able to keep up with him during the day. i have no idea, but that was my impression, as an everyday listener.

t8stlikchkn on June 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

I haven’t heard this show before so I’ll accept your opinion on it. I would love it if we could pin this on their forehead with roofing nails. Even better if these buses could be met at the state line by the State Troopers…

I hear you all are here to vote today?..

some idiot will spout off and the rest will crack when faced with election fraud.

How I’d like to see it end.

We’ll see, I hope there are further updates on it.

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

with the dumbo-dems track record lately of things blowing up in their faces, wouldnt it be nice if all those provisional ballots were examined and checked and widespread fraud was discovered on the barret side, and a nationwide voter ID law wild fire was sparked by the “wisconsin recall debacle of 2012″?

t8stlikchkn on June 5, 2012 at 7:28 PM

The locals here have explained that provisionals are thrown in with the other votes and cannot be extracted later. You can investigate and prosecute if you can, but once cast, a provisional vote cannot be uncast.

I believe that’s typical in provisional vote states.

slickwillie2001 on June 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I believe that’s typical in provisional vote states.

slickwillie2001 on June 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I thought here in Ohio they hold them and don’t toss them into the pot till the information is verified.. I thought so anyway.

I’ll have to check..

But if a ballot is thrown in before being verified… how can they say it’s a working system if a high number turn out to be fraudulent? How too can they justify not holding them back?

Unless as we suspect the goal is to get as many fraudulent votes cast as possible.

How do democrat poll watchers and election officials even sleep at night?

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I haven’t had a drink in months. If Walker loses (he better not) I am going to be real sorry I didn’t stop at the liquor store on the way home from work.

gophergirl on June 5, 2012 at 7:17 PM

me either,

.

pffft

cough

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

(sorry…was practicing for the wife…but I can never pull it off)

Tim_CA on June 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

I believe that’s typical in provisional vote states.

slickwillie2001 on June 5, 2012 at 7:47 PM
I thought here in Ohio they hold them and don’t toss them into the pot till the information is verified.. I thought so anyway.

I’ll have to check..

But if a ballot is thrown in before being verified… how can they say it’s a working system if a high number turn out to be fraudulent? How too can they justify not holding them back?

Unless as we suspect the goal is to get as many fraudulent votes cast as possible.

How do democrat poll watchers and election officials even sleep at night?

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

i beleive here in MD thats the way its done: its set aside and verified before being counted. it happened to my wife once when we moved and i transferred my polling place deal and she didnt so she was not on the rolls (when we went to our new place together) and i was so on the list and she went to the “special” room for provisionals. and yes, i DO hope they did this, and i DO hope it can be traced and tracked down, and some daylight be shed on this crap. that they’ve been pulling for years. and it blows right to F up in their faces. they’ve been so over-reaching on everything, this would be icing on the cake.

t8stlikchkn on June 5, 2012 at 9:13 PM

I haven’t heard this show before so I’ll accept your opinion on it. I would love it if we could pin this on their forehead with roofing nails. Even better if these buses could be met at the state line by the State Troopers…

I hear you all are here to vote today?..

some idiot will spout off and the rest will crack when faced with election fraud.

How I’d like to see it end.

We’ll see, I hope there are further updates on it.

mark81150 on June 5, 2012 at 7:43 PM

i listen to his show on the internet at work. if you want to tune in tomorrow the link is here:
http://www.wmal.com/article.asp?id=632848

he is funny as hell. was at CNN for 20 years. and he plays a lot of zeppelin and roxy music bumper music – and oh thats good.

t8stlikchkn on June 5, 2012 at 9:16 PM

MSNBC just called it for Walker…LOL

Perfect..:)

idesign on June 5, 2012 at 9:55 PM

This is the dumbest, most inept dope on the planet. The emblem of the obama administration. Amatures, sloppy amatures.

StevC on June 5, 2012 at 10:37 PM

Jay Carney: Don’t draw too many conclusions about November from a Scott Walker victory;

Break dancing past the graveyard.
Not that he’s got much to worry about. One of the last rats off the ship, Carney’ll dive into the soft pillow of MSNBC or some such. Contract might require coming out for the bisexual audience or drone on about molesting and aborting children for the sake of progressive fairness or just for the sake of the “lean just a little more forward” ads but he’ll thrive.
Axlerod probably won’t come out for beastiality for the sake of CBS, or ABC (NPR however) but he’ll probably, oddly remote live quite often from a zoo somewhere.
Hey, their rules. Marquis of Alinsky. Why should apparent observation offend? Take that you low life criminal marxist scum. Federal prison really isn’t too good for you.
Chris Mathews, spokesperson for drunken drag queens?

onomo on June 6, 2012 at 7:11 AM

I meant no disrespect to people who drink heavily and cross dress.

onomo on June 6, 2012 at 7:12 AM

If this is the result of the “dry run in November”, someone had better start worrying. Romney will prevail. We have finally had enough of Obama.

Amazingoly on June 6, 2012 at 9:29 AM

When Republicans got whipped in the 2006 and 2008 congressional elections did the White House go fully Baghdad Bob?

CorporatePiggy on June 6, 2012 at 10:28 AM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4