Gallup: Romney leads among middle-income voters

posted at 9:21 am on June 5, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

For weeks, the Obama campaign has labored mightily to paint Mitt Romney as out of touch with middle America, a member of the One Percent that destroys companies and middle-class jobs.  How has that strategy worked?  Gallup’s poll data shows that Romney leads Barack Obama narrowly among voters who earn between $36,000 and $90,000 per year, and that the lead in that group doubles among independent voters:

Mitt Romney currently has a 49% to 45% edge over Barack Obama among middle-income voters, those whose annual household income is between $36,000 and $89,999. Romney has the same lead among upper-income voters, while Obama maintains a wide advantage among lower-income voters.

The results are based on Gallup Daily tracking of 2012 election preferences by demographic group, including more than 9,000 interviews with registered voters conducted between May 14 and June 3. During this period, Obama and Romney were tied at 46% among all registered voters.

Voting preferences by income group have been fairly well-established since Gallup began tracking the general election on April 11. Obama’s lead over Romney among low-income voters has ranged between 13 and 16 percentage points in each of the three-week rolling averages of the vote by demographic group that Gallup has reported since late April. Meanwhile, Romney’s edge among middle-income voters has been between four and seven points, and among upper-income voters, between four and six points.

Romney, the wealthy former head of Bain Capital, has slightly greater appeal to the highest-income voters in Gallup’s data, those making $180,000 or more in annual income. This group has shown a 53% to 42% preference for Romney since mid-April, compared with 50% to 45% for Romney among those earning between $90,000 and $179,999.

The survey period included two days of post-jobs report polling.  Yesterday’s 7-day rolling average in the tracking poll put Obama up by one, 46/45, with a 47/45 approval rating.  The next few days should show whether Obama will take a big hit from the bad jobs report on Friday and his campaign’s fumbling of the issue over the weekend, but so far the change from the addition of the two days does not appear dramatic.

The internals of the Gallup data do show some worrisome signs for both candidates.  As I noted earlier, independents in the middle income level back Romney by eight, 48/40.  Perhaps more worrisome for Obama, he only wins low-income independents by six points, and at a low 44/38.  The gender gap disappears in the middle and high income brackets for Obama, too; he’s only +3 among women in the $36K-90K range, while losing men by -14, and +9 among women in the over-$90K demo while trailing by -16 among men.  Romney is net+11 and +7 in the gender gap in those ranges.

Obama trails in all three income categories by double digits among white voters, for instance, while Romney trails by 52 points or more in all three categories among non-whites.  Romney was not expected to do well among minority voters, but he probably needs to get closer than a -55 among middle-income non-white voters.  On the other hand, Obama won in 2008 by winning the lower and competing in the middle income categories among white voters, and he’s not at all competitive at the moment.

Romney addresses that issue today in his new ad aimed at Hispanic voters, “Dismal,” which focuses on the economic harm that has come to Hispanics over the last four years:

We’ll see if Romney can make inroads among Hispanic voters, but at least for now, he’s not conceding that demographic.


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Not a big Romney supporter here, but…. Kind of refreshing to have a candidate this time that really looks like they want to win.

dirtseller on June 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

…but…butt he’s rich…and doesn’t relate!

KOOLAID2 on June 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Maybe it’s because Romney made money by actually working. Obama has been groomed and made his money by “writing” a book and being a politician.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

The fact that Romney, whatever his other faults, is not a race-baiting poverty pimp just might have something to do with that.

MelonCollie on June 5, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Good. I am hoping he will target black voters next…

OmahaConservative on June 5, 2012 at 9:30 AM

He didn’t even write his own book. The man has no work ethic whatsoever!

Winebabe on June 5, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Yeah, Romney’s going to win. Oh well…

libfreeordie on June 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

He didn’t even write his own book. The man has no work ethic whatsoever!

Winebabe on June 5, 2012 at 9:30 AM

You’re nobody until you get Bill Ayers to write your autobiography.

CorporatePiggy on June 5, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Good ad

The economy affects everyone….dear leader wants to pigeon hole folks whereas mitt is going for all

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 9:34 AM

The ad is good…and it needs to be played in Nevada endlessly.

rubberneck on June 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Can I get an uppereastside quote please? Del? Rebar? Somebody?

Lost in Jersey on June 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

The gender gap disappears in the middle and high income brackets for Obama, too; he’s only +3 among women in the $36K-90K range, while losing men by -14, and +9 among women in the over-$90K demo while trailing by -16 among men. Romney is net+11 and +7 in the gender gap in those ranges.

Think of how bass-ackwards that is, when in regards to the “War On Women” meme.

I thought women couldn’t move up the ladder?

I’d be really interested to see the field o’ vocation for the bulk of the 90K women crowd…

Public-Sector. Faculty. Media. Hospital Administration. Arts/Entertainment. Liyers. Enviro’s.

You could paint an easy profile based on the women around Barry.

budfox on June 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Yeah, but Obooba’s locked up the welfare voters.

Take that, George! Er, Mitt!

Akzed on June 5, 2012 at 9:37 AM

That’s why the democrats work so hard to impoverish as many Americans as possible. That’s where their votes are.

wright on June 5, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Yeah, Romney’s going to win. Oh well…

libfreeordie on June 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Don’t worry. Obama will land on his feet, making millions a year in speaking fees, telling people of how all of this economic misery could have been avoided if only Democrats hadn’t stopped him from single payer, card check and cap & trade.

The Count on June 5, 2012 at 9:42 AM

These new republican party hates the middle class.
 
Uppereastside on June 3, 2012 at 9:59 PM

rogerb on June 5, 2012 at 9:42 AM

If this ad is aimed at Hispanics, Romney’s commentary needs to be in Spanish. Es verdad?

Steve Z on June 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

More like

Gallup: Romney leads among middle-any-income voters

Paul-Cincy on June 5, 2012 at 9:48 AM

Minority women are carrying the President in the polls right now, and that is unsurprising: after all, this is the only voter demographic where unemployment rates have improved with any sort of significance lately.

That fact will turn around, as our long ugly summer goes on, because the Obama command economy will leave no group unscathed. Everyone is going to be made miserable by these clowns.

Once these folks start feeling the pain like everyone else the President is electoral toast, because these women (who voted at historic rates for him in 2008) will lose enthusiasm as everyone else has already done. Sure, the group will still go 90% for him at the polls, but there will be fewer donations, fewer canvassers, fewer phoners and less momentum.

MTF on June 5, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Wouldn’t this ad be more effective in Spanish? If you’re going to pander to targeted ethnic groups, at least do it right.

billy on June 5, 2012 at 9:50 AM

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney picking up 46% of the vote, while President Obama attracts 45%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Flora Duh on June 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Romney has the same lead among upper-income voters, while Obama maintains a wide advantage among lower-income voters.

Lower-income voters love Obama, and he loves them. That’s why he’s creating so many of them.

Fabozz on June 5, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Kind of off topic, but in light of this I find this sort of interesting.

More people are riding the bus

MobileVideoEngineer on June 5, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Not a big Romney supporter here, but…. Kind of refreshing to have a candidate this time that really looks like they want to win.

dirtseller on June 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Same here. If he keeps fighting like this throughout the campaign and then governs like this as well, I may change my opinion of him.

Nathan_OH on June 5, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Perhaps because middle income people are striving to become upper income people but they see their earnings siphoned away to support aholes who don’t have enough drive to even get out of bed.

Bishop on June 5, 2012 at 10:00 AM

Good linky FD

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Yeah, Romney’s going to win. Oh well…

libfreeordie on June 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Take heart, TFGP will be the next secretary-general of the United Nations. You’ll be able to hear him pontificate about the evils of capitalism and Israel without having to answer to a bunch of hick patriot voters from middle America.

Bishop on June 5, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Yeah, Romney’s going to win. Oh well…

libfreeordie on June 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Throwing in the towel in Round 2?

thebrokenrattle on June 5, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Take heart, TFGP will be the next secretary-general of the United Nations. You’ll be able to hear him pontificate about the evils of capitalism and Israel without having to answer to a bunch of hick patriot voters from middle America.

Bishop on June 5, 2012 at 10:05 AM

For some reason it wouldn’t surprise me if this is his next campaign. And since the UN hates Israel and America, they can probably see his contempt for them as well and they’ll appoint him in no time.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 5, 2012 at 10:24 AM

But Obama is soaring with the no-income class..

hillsoftx on June 5, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Take heart, TFGP will be the next secretary-general of the United Nations. You’ll be able to hear him pontificate about the evils of capitalism and Israel without having to answer to a bunch of hick patriot voters from middle America.

Bishop on June 5, 2012 at 10:05 AM

BISHOP!

..do you think we could hook The Pantload on just such a vision? If he were to aspire to something like that now that he is stumbling, then perhaps his campaign efforts would become even more pathetic and non-serious than they are now.

The War Planner on June 5, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Can I get an uppereastside quote please? Del? Rebar? Somebody?

Lost in Jersey on June 5, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Er, “Dick Cheney is a War Criminal”?

Del Dolemonte on June 5, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Two points. Both kind of picky.

First, what’s with the red print? It gets lost in the background. Why not UPPERCASE BOLD print in the same color as the rest of the text? (Note: I have a bit of a color blindness issue, so maybe I am seeing this differently than the rest of you. However, for me to see the red print, I have to study the text carefully.)

Second, geez, if Mitt is going to pitch Hispanics, do the ad in Spanish.

I am a Mitten (and have been since 2008), so I am not just being contrary. I would like to see him maximize the return from his advertising dollar.

HeatSeeker2011 on June 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

Gallup’s poll data shows that Romney leads Barack Obama narrowly among voters who earn between $36,000 and $90,000 per year

Well, the wife and I each earn within that range and we support Romney. Granted, we’re both conservatives, but the Democrat/media complex can dispense with the BS narrative that middle income people naturally lean Democrat. Maybe 30+ years ago, but not anymore.

Doughboy on June 5, 2012 at 10:40 AM

I hope that Mitt knows that this country’s quiet workers are begging for a successful leader. The one who comes through will own the place.

I regret that we had no debate between POTUS and Newt. Then a check of middle class opinion would have been interesting.

IlikedAUH2O on June 5, 2012 at 10:43 AM

I wish angryed could enjoy this.

FlaMurph on June 5, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Second, geez, if Mitt is going to pitch Hispanics, do the ad in Spanish.

HeatSeeker2011 on June 5, 2012 at 10:38 AM

That would cost him too much in other demographics.

Nathan_OH on June 5, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Team Mitt needs to do a version of that Hispanic outreach ad in Spanish.

Buy Danish on June 5, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Yeah, Romney’s going to win. Oh well…

libfreeordie on June 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Moved on from the denial to the acceptance stage. Good on you.

Don’t worry, your Messiah will make a fortune in the speaking engagement tour, fast becoming the 1% you so blithely despise.

The sour grapes & sniping from this narcissistic, lazy man-child will make Carter look like a choir boy.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on June 5, 2012 at 11:52 AM

It is obvious to anyone with a single digit IQ that Obama is a anti-American, anti-Christion, socialist, incompetent, narcissistic Chicago thug. Being American we cannot conceive of this crap staying in office. What we have to realize is the potential of Romney being a lying RINO who will stab the American people in the back and sell us out like all politicians are prone to do. No question that Romney is the lesser to two evils, but will he just be another lying, backstabbing scumbag like most politicians? Life as we know it will depend on the answer.

volsense on June 5, 2012 at 12:08 PM

This ad is excellent and efective. Romney got an excellent team of film makers, his ads are always very clear on message, nothing like the silly, whiney ads of mclame campaign that were all over the place message-wise.

jimver on June 5, 2012 at 12:11 PM

It is obvious to anyone with a single digit IQ that Obama is a anti-American, anti-Christion, socialist, incompetent, narcissistic Chicago thug. Being American we cannot conceive of this crap staying in office. What we have to realize is the potential of Romney being a lying RINO who will stab the American people in the back and sell us out like all politicians are prone to do. No question that Romney is the lesser to two evils, but will he just be another lying, backstabbing scumbag like most politicians? Life as we know it will depend on the answer.

volsense on June 5, 2012 at 12:08 PM

No, life as we know it will depend on whether Obama wins re-election — we have dealt with & survived run of the mill lying, backstabbing scumbag politicians before (see: Clinton for just one example in a long line) so the Romney hysteria is misplaced in face of the possibility of an unfettered by fear of needing to win re-election 2nd Obama term. Don’t take my word for it, take David Limbaugh’s.

Excerpt (but everyone needs to watch entire video):

“We only have a two to three year window according to experts, if you listen to what Paul Ryan says … the future of the country turns on this election,” Mr. Limbaugh said.

Dark Star on June 5, 2012 at 12:47 PM

Yeah, Romney’s going to win. Oh well…

libfreeordie on June 5, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I’m about as enthused about it as you are, which should tell you novels.

Schadenfreude on June 5, 2012 at 1:04 PM

Wouldn’t this ad be more effective in Spanish? If you’re going to pander to targeted ethnic groups, at least do it right.

billy on June 5, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Romney is like Arab leaders.

In English he says Obama is not working.
In Spanish he says we are on the right path.
Hmmm.

Is the Spanish how Romney actually feels.

If not why no Spanish saying so. Just Music and English words.

Steveangell on June 5, 2012 at 1:17 PM

In 2008 people were not listening or paying attention. Obama said up front that he was going to bankrupt the coal industry and “necessarily skyrocket” energy costs. People (including many coal miners!) were caught up in Obama hysteria and either did not listen, or heard it and ignored it, and elected him anyway.

Many voters are more “on the ball” this time around. Romney is “out of touch” and a destroyer of middle class jobs mainly in Obama’s words. Obama, on the other hand, has proven himself to be out of touch and a destroyer of jobs through his actions.

Voters, it is very dangerous to listen to Obama’s words and believe what he says. Look at his actions, and judge him by his record!

rockncoal on June 5, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Maybe it’s because Romney made money by actually working. Obama has been groomed and made his money by “writing” a book and being a politician.

MobileVideoEngineer on June 5, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Obama’s book success is because truckloads were bought up by his supporters such as Soros, then distributed free or dumped in landfills. Hillary’s State Department bought 70,000 to distribute. We all know how Obama’s wife made her big salary with only a part time job.

Romney worked for what he has.

jqc1970 on June 5, 2012 at 3:16 PM

Me gusta mucho este tipo Romney. El es muy luchador. Muy diferente de McCain.

Hayabusa on June 5, 2012 at 9:06 PM