Walker: No plans for a recount; Update: Walker by 12?

posted at 1:01 pm on June 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

With the recall election in Wisconsin going to the voters tomorrow, one might have expected a boatload of news in the race, but so far the day has been fairly quiet.  The PPP poll didn’t show any change from its historical series, pointing to a narrow win for Scott Walker.  RCP’s polling average shows a 6.4-point Scott Walker lead in all polls taken in the last four weeks, all of which used likely voters as their base, which hints at a somewhat more significant win in tomorrow’s voting.  Either way, Walker says he hasn’t planned for a recount, even though he’s careful to state that the race will be close no matter what happens:

Gov. Scott Walker said Monday he was optimistic he would win Tuesday’s recall election, but added he thought the race would be tight.

“We’re cautiously optimistic,” he told reporters. “We’re not overconfident. We understand this is going to be a big vote turnout. But we understand there is a lot of passion from all different directions. We want to make sure we get our voters out and make as many last-minute appeals to undecided voters that if they want to move on, if they want to go forward, we’re the candidate.” …

Asked if he’d made plans for a recount, he shook his head.

“In our case, we’re focused on getting people to the polls, focused on a way to win,” he said. “I think there’s going to be a big turnout across the board. … I’m not conceding any part of the state of Wisconsin.”

Another poll did come out today, from an outfit of which I’m not aware called Angus Reid Opinion.  The results show Walker up six over Barrett 53/47 among “decided” voters, polled in an online survey.  That matches the RCP average, but online surveys are somewhat less accepted than phone surveys, although it’s not to say that it’s not legitimate, either.  The crosstabs are interesting; according to this survey, Barrett and Walker tie among seniors, while PPP showed Walker with a substantial lead in that demo — 19 points, in fact.  It also shows Barrett and Walker tied with voters under 35 years of age, which seems counter-intuitive as well.  Walker takes 22% of voters who went with Barack Obama in 2008, while Barrett only gets 12% of McCain voters.  Take it with as big a grain of salt as you’d wish.

On the other hand, Jim Geraghty reports that Barrett seems to be losing the Brewers Poll:

During the third inning, the jumbotron began showing random crowd shots (which had the attention of the crowd and generated friendly cheers) – the cute baby in the Brewers jumper, the shirtless guys with beers, the pretty girls dancing to the music. Then, the camera panned to a guy holding up a “Vote Barrett” sign. The crowd erupted…in boos! These were significant, sustained boos. I asked the couple seated next to me – a young couple that didn’t appear to be regular CPAC attendees or anything -  about the situation and they said, “Barrett’s got no chance. People are sick of this thing.”

In other news, the Department of Justice announced this morning that they will monitor the vote in Milwaukee tomorrow, pursuant to the Voting Rights Act, which prompted a blessedly small amount of reaction on Twitter and in my e-mail:

The Justice Department announced today that it will monitor elections on June 5, 2012, in the following jurisdictions to ensure compliance with the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and other federal voting rights statutes: Alameda, Fresno and Riverside Counties, Calif.; Cibola and Sandoval Counties, N.M.; Shannon County, S.D.; and the city of Milwaukee.

The Voting Rights Act prohibits discrimination in the election process on the basis of race, color or membership in a minority language group.  In addition, the act requires certain covered jurisdictions to provide language assistance during the election process.  Fresno County, Riverside County and the city of Milwaukee are required to provide assistance in Spanish.  Cibola, Sandoval and Shannon Counties are required to provide language assistance to Native American voters.  Alameda County is required to provide language assistance to Hispanic, Chinese, Vietnamese and Filipino voters.

Under the Voting Rights Act, the Justice Department is authorized to ask the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) to send federal observers to jurisdictions that are certified by the attorney general or by a federal court order.  Federal observers will be assigned to monitor polling place activities in Shannon County based on the attorney general’s certification and in Alameda, Riverside and Sandoval Counties based on court orders.  The observers will watch and record activities during voting hours at polling locations in these jurisdictions, and Civil Rights Division attorneys will coordinate the federal activities and maintain contact with local election officials.

In addition, Justice Department personnel will monitor polling place activities in Fresno County, Cibola County and the city of Milwaukee.  Civil Rights Division attorneys will coordinate federal activities and maintain contact with local election officials.

Interesting, but apparently routine.  Milwaukee appears to be a covered jurisdiction in the VRA, pursuant to a notice filed at least since 2010, long before any recall effort began.  The scope of the “monitoring” is only to ensure that Spanish-language ballots and voting materials are present in precincts within the city of Milwaukee.

What if Walker wins, especially by a significant margin?  John Fund says that no one will be able to pretend that it was a decision made by an uninformed electorate, and a loss by Democrats and unions will have both looking for a scapegoat, and Mitt Romney with a turnkey operation in a suddenly-competitive state:

Maureen Dowd of the New York Times dismissed Obama on Sunday as someone who “prefers to float above, at a reserve, in grandiose mists.” When the likes of Dowd are no longer feeling the love, we shouldn’t be surprised that other Democrats are dumping on Obama for not showing up to help Barrett in Wisconsin. “Progressive Pundits Lay Groundwork to Blame Obama if Wisconsin Recall Fails” was the headline of a searing critique by Noah Rothman at Mediaite. He quoted Ed Schultz of MSNBC sarcastically noting that the president was in neighboring Iowa and Minnesota last week and that his campaign office is in nearby Chicago. “It’s all around, but is it in?” Schultz asked of the Obama campaign. “[Union members] want him on that line because he talked about being on that line with them back in 2007.” Schultz closed his plea for an Obama visit by saying it is the “job of a leader” to motivate his followers.

Liberals view Wisconsin as a state that is “leading the way in reshaping American’s view of the role of government,” Rothman emphasizes. “President Obama has abandoned that fight, noting correctly that it is not likely to be won,” he says. “But progressive pundits . . . are right — this is not just another election. . . .  It is a fight with broad implications that President Obama has abandoned. The question now becomes, can they [progressives] forgive this betrayal ahead of a tough election in the fall?”

The state hasn’t voted Republican since Ronald Reagan’s reelection effort in 1984, and Obama won it easily by 14 points in 2008. But the state can be competitive. Both Al Gore and John Kerry carried it by only a handful of votes — many of which may have been fraudulent, as a 2007 Milwaukee Police Department report showed.

By this fall, Wisconsin’s new voting law will probably be in effect. It limits same-day registration abuses and requires voters to show photo ID at the polls; this should reduce the role of last-minute fraudsters such as the infamous Park Avenue heiress who pled guilty to flying to Milwaukee in 2000 and passing out cigarettes to homeless people in exchange for their promise to vote for Al Gore.

The psychological blow of losing yet another recall campaign would surely reduce enthusiasm and turnout on the left, while leaving Romney with an extensive campaign infrastructure in the state: 22 offices set up by Governor Walker, firmly in place only five months before the presidential race.

That all depends, of course, on a Walker win.  That depends on Republicans winning the turnout battle tomorrow.

Update: According to We Ask America, the race has shifted in the last few days — in Walker’s direction:

So, as fireworks continue to explode over the political horizon in the Dairy State, we asked 1,570 likely voters who they support in the June 5 election. Here are the results. …

Those surprising results would project at a 56-44 final win for Walker. HOWEVER, while Walker continues to lead Barrett, we once again caution readers that this is an extremely difficult election to predict. Turnout is king in all elections, and it may be even more important in this one. Wisconsin’s labor movement is keen to get as many of the anti-Walker voters to the polls as possible and have displayed the ability to rally their troops effectively. And Wisconsin regulations allow Election Day voter registration with a minimum of residency documentation–something that has both sides whispering of potential abuse from their opponents.

WAA had Walker up seven last week.  This is an automated poll (like Rasmussen, for instance), conducted among 1570 likely voters, a very large sample for a statewide election.  WAA warns that it will still come down to turnout, but that’s an eyepopping gap the day before the election.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

We’ve had rallies all week. Barrett had a rally and 300 people showed up. Walker had a rally and over 4,000 attended. We have phone banks all across the state and thousands of people on the ground. I wold bet Walker wins by at least 7 points.

idesign on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Was that the Barrett rally where the Cops weren’t very professional with that ex-union Vet?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 3:15 PM

We need a pool!

Walker by 8. Expect DoJ interference.

dogsoldier on June 4, 2012 at 1:08 PM

How about a pool as to when the hired Union Thugs start storming the State Capital claiming that the Koch Brothers stole the election?

Or when MSNBC concludes that Voters who voted for Walker are racist Obama Haters?

Or when NPR reports that voters weren’t voting FOR Walker as much as AGAINST the blah blah blah…

GadsdenRattlers on June 4, 2012 at 3:16 PM

“It’s all around, but is it in?” Schultz asked of the Obama campaign. “[Union members] want him on that line because he talked about being on that line with them back in 2007.” Schultz closed his plea for an Obama visit by saying it is the “job of a leader” to motivate his followers.

Pssst, Special Ed. Obama doesn’t take off his “bedroom slippers and put on his marching shoes.” That’s what he expects all of you suckas and sycophants to do for him.

Now, “shake it off. Stop complainin’, stop grumblin’, stop cryin.”

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 3:27 PM

Ok how’s about June for the double whammy, huh? Walker wins handily and the SCOTUS rules against obummercare. Triple whammy? Romney bookends another strategic Axeljob propaganda rally before he finds the traitor in his ranks.

jake49 on June 4, 2012 at 3:31 PM

I mean before axeljob finds the traitor in “his” ranks.

jake49 on June 4, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Angus-Reid Poll has Walker up 5.

CW on June 4, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Suggestions for tomorrow’s Election Night “Drinking Game” are now being accepted…

Seven Percent Solution on June 4, 2012 at 3:41 PM

We once had a local election with a outspoken anti-tax (Conservative) town trooper parking his empty squad car near the polls. He was involuntarily transferred after that for what some considered an intimidating act upon the voters.
In lieu of that kind of judgment, wouldn’t Holder’s anti-Walker department, that refused to prosecute the new black panthers for voter intimidation, be far more intimidating?
Wouldn’t they be apt to find any minor discrepancy (wind blowing from the right is a biased election) to discredit the election? Would this be a not too surprising administration move to discredit the entire process?

Don L on June 4, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Lol, ragarding David Schuster saying Walker is the “target” of a Federal probe.

I’m sorry, just LOL. If the Democrats have ANYTHING on Walker, don;t you think the would have been shouting it from the rooftops for weeks? So the first we here of this EXPLOSIVE story is the day before the election.

What BS.

mitchellvii on June 4, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Walker will win by double digits and it will resonate throughout the rest of the states…the Republicans have answers, the democrats have protests.
The Republicans have solutions…the democrats whine.

right2bright on June 4, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Was that the Barrett rally where the Cops weren’t very professional with that ex-union Vet?

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Yes, I’m pretty sure it was.

idesign on June 4, 2012 at 3:50 PM

mitchellvii on June 4, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Did you see where some far left outfit in Wisconsin conceived a 20 year-old, Scott Walker, love child only for DAILY KOS and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online to abort it within an hour?

They had the WRONG Scott Walker.

I love the smell of desperation in the morning…and any other time of the day.

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 3:52 PM

The Left’s worst nightmare has come true in the Tea Party.

Conservatives have become activists! And now we are better at it than they are.

mitchellvii on June 4, 2012 at 3:54 PM

I’m having second thoughts about my pre-election jitters concerning voter fraud. If the latest polls are close, it looks like another tsunami is about to hit the Wisconsin Democrats. I’m doubting that the DNC, the unions, or the DOJ can jin up enough fraudulent votes to overcome this.

Tomolena1 on June 4, 2012 at 3:55 PM

Jason Alexander just called Obama a ‘cricket player’. Devastating.

BHO Jonestown on June 4, 2012 at 4:14 PM

I have the perfect answer to the Department of Injustice’s presence in Wisconsin tomorrow. Chuck Norris needs to show up in Madison tomorrow wearing a t-shirt that says: Walker Texas Ranger Stands with Walker Wisconsin Governor.

Benedict Nelson on June 4, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Who will monitor the DOJ?

karra on June 4, 2012 at 4:19 PM

I saw David Shuster is reporting today Scott Walker is about to be federally indicted or “frogmarched” as they say out of the statehouse, so sources tell him. You remember David Shuster of MSNBC, right? The guy who PROMISED Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann that sources told him that Karl Rove was going to be federally indicted or “frogmarched” as they say out of the White House by the end of that day he reported it.

Marcus on June 4, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Jason Leopold could not be reached for comment.

And Leopold’s former “employer”, truthout.org, has never taken his story off their website.

Del Dolemonte on June 4, 2012 at 4:19 PM

I love the smell of desperation in the morning…and any other time of the day.

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Schadenfreudig beyond belief. Tomorrow s/b a great day.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 4:24 PM

David Shuster and Matthews will froth at the mouths tomorrow night…Ed Schultz too…oh, my, I better get some goodies.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Did you see where some far left outfit in Wisconsin conceived a 20 year-old, Scott Walker, love child only for DAILY KOS and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Online to abort it within an hour?

They had the WRONG Scott Walker.

I love the smell of desperation in the morning…and any other time of the day.

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Oh my they are freaking idiots. The JSO printed that??? How sad, it use to be a decent paper. Journalism is dead. But Brietbart lives!

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 4:25 PM

up 12 pts day before gametime with a sample size of >1K……

p..pp…pop it up, amigos. It’s crunch n’ munch time.

ted c on June 4, 2012 at 4:51 PM

The Left’s worst nightmare has come true in the Tea Party.

Conservatives have become activists! And now we are better at it than they are.

mitchellvii on June 4, 2012 at 3:54 PM

The sweet part about the Tea Party focusing on results rather than PR is that the Left will be again be infuriated at the world not acting according to the narrative they’ve set out.

MrX on June 4, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Update: According to We Ask America, the race has shifted in the last few days — in Walker’s direction:

I do so much want a rout of these self-centered, selfish, liberal union bastards

Rod on June 4, 2012 at 4:56 PM

oops. That was supposed to be quoted, not bolded.

MrX on June 4, 2012 at 4:57 PM

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 4:25 PM

JSO and Kos DEBUNKED it. How bad is that? To be a lefty group trying to get rid of Walker and have Kos and JSO debunk your Rathergate? LOL.

Schadenfreudig beyond belief. Tomorrow s/b a great day.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 4:24 PM

You’re not kidding. If you’re interested, I’ve put together a little retort to their latest talking points about out-of-state money:

Progs Write A Cheque Their Mouths Can’t Cash

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/progs-write-cheque-their-mouths-cant.html

M2RB: Eminem

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Or when NPR reports that voters weren’t voting FOR Walker as much as AGAINST the blah blah blah…

GadsdenRattlers on June 4, 2012 at 3:16 PM

I already heard that one today. “They’re AGAINST the recall process” will be the meme.

CycloneCDB on June 4, 2012 at 5:04 PM

Last evening, our young adult son was over for dinner. Matt works as an outside salesman for a small business in Oshkosh. He mentioned that his schedule was changed again and that he was going to have to travel next week. Both my husband and I looked at him in horror and said “WAIT. Did you VOTE already?” He said, ‘NO, but the absentee polls are closed so I don’t know what I can do!’ Since he was planning on being out of town all week, that meant that his wife would be traveling to her parents home up north and NOT VOTE EITHER!

Well, this morning he called me and said, “Mom, when I got home last night, I had an email from my boss (who was going to travel with him). The email said, ‘Matt, can we change our flight schedule and leave late Tuesday morning? We need to vote.’ Matt said, ‘well yes, but it’ll cost $150 PER TICKET to make the change’. Boss says, “Well, You don’t have to tell me who you’re voting for, but I AM voting for Walker, so if YOU’RE voting for Barrett, let’s just SKIP it because we’ll cancel each other out. BUT, if you’re voting for WALKER, make the change”. Matt said, “I’ll change the tickets right away, Boss.”

SO, his boss ponied up $300 to STAY in TOWN to VOTE on TUESDAY.

The BASE is INDEED fired up.

I canNOT wait for this to be OVER.

AppletonMom on June 4, 2012 at 5:11 PM

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 4:25 PM

JSO and Kos DEBUNKED it. How bad is that? To be a lefty group trying to get rid of Walker and have Kos and JSO debunk your Rathergate? LOL.

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Oh I am glad to hear JS wasn’t that bad! How truly embarrassing for them. I saw they “pants of fired” Barrett on the deer czar emails. Saw that of FB for weeks now. I posted the pants on fire an hour ago.

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 5:33 PM

Lifelong WI resident here (40+ years). (Just the thought of accidentally stepping into the land of 10,000 pale faces…er lakes, keeps me well rooted in this fantastic state – resident liberal idiots excepted.)

There is a modicrim of truth to the notion that people are extremely tired of the recall and think that it was a bad idea to begin with. I think a significant percentage (perhaps nearly as high as the eventual difference in the final results) of voters for Scott Walker are not necessarily voting for him as they are voting against this terrible idea of a recall. Don’t forget that the Lt. Governor and 4 state senate seats are also part of this recall election. A loss of any one of those could really be an issue for the remainder of Walker’s first term.

My wife and mom both fall into that category. I’m not saying they would normally vote democratic, but they normally might not be inclined to go out and vote Republican on any given day, preferring to not vote. They are both voting for Walker tomorrow. So while my immediate family is 6 for 6 in the Walker column, I also have a disproportionate number of cousins who will be voting for Barrett (Teachers all….grade school through UW System professors). Think of all the fun we will have at a family wedding this coming weekend….

Optimistically predicting a strong Walker win tomorrow night – no recount. Either way, I am going to be so hammered tomorrow night.

- S.

Simonsez on June 4, 2012 at 5:39 PM

I want a HUMPBOT tomorrow if Scott wins. We deserve it.

HUMPBOT!!

Conservative Samizdat on June 4, 2012 at 5:43 PM

Wisconsin Voter Intimidation

http://moonbattery.com/?p=12461#comment-288497

jjrakman on June 4, 2012 at 5:46 PM

wi farmgirl on June 4, 2012 at 2:39 P

the 39% union approval is accurate because it includes private sector unions as well. approval of walker among private sector unions is in the high 40s.

phillysfinest on June 4, 2012 at 5:47 PM

10,000 Quatloos on Walker by 9%.

crash72 on June 4, 2012 at 5:53 PM

RWM, great compilation of their own idiocies/hypocrisies.

Add thist to the mix.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 6:14 PM

I now see the really fundamental thing about Walker wasn’t making the teachers pony up for health and pension to levels paid in other states. It is making union dues optional. The monster doesn’t grow on voluntary donations.

That is the big deal.

AshleyTKing on June 4, 2012 at 6:30 PM

“If union members are upset that the millions union bosses have dumped into defeating Gov. Walker in tomorrow’s recall election appear not to be working, they may be furious when they learn the details of a new investigation by the Government Accountability Institute.

Here are a few of the highlights:

Despite the nearly 200 demonstrations against JP Morgan Chase, Bank of America, and the other big banks, the AFL-CIO and SEIU are in bed with JP Morgan Chase—big time. Through something called the “Union Plus Mortgage Program,” the AFL-CIO and SEIU provide their members over 80,000 home mortgage loans totaling a whopping $15.2 billion. And who have the unions relied upon for 12 years and running to offer these home loans? You guessed it, JP Morgan Chase, the very bank the big union bosses direct their members to rail against.”

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/06/04/AFL-CIO-SEIU-Funnel-15-Billion-In-Home-Mortgages-To-JP-Morgan-Chase

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 6:14 PM

Whenever they start with that crap, I tell them:

“Fine. Just remember that corporations can be one person (although LLC would be a better organisational structure for them). Without corporate personhood, there will be lawyers like me, who will sue your small business owner arse and take your business, your home, your wife’s engagement ring, your kids’ college funds, their piggy banks, and their Buzz Lightyear underwear.

You don’t want corporate personhood. Great. We can go back to sole proprietorships and I’ll go back to work and be the biggest sheister of an ambulance chaser you’ve ever encountered…especially if you are a Progressive and were stupid enough to support this insanity.”

Needless to say, I don’t even hear crickets afterward because they are stunned into silence.

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 6:39 PM

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 6:39 PM

What a riot you are. I hope not to need one, but if I ever do, I’ll hire you to represent me.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 6:44 PM

I like stuart varney but i suspect he does not like women smarter than he is.

lol

gerrym51 on June 4, 2012 at 2:11 PM

She doesn’t even come close to his IQ.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Schadenfreude,

And, I’d represent you. My brothers have always said that there is one word to describe me: “brutal”

Resist We Much on June 4, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Anyone see recent polling on Rebecca Kleefisch?
Also, the 4 Senate seats….heard that if 1 goes (D) the republicans lose the majority.
So much at stake here.
Maybe Wisconsin will wake up to the enormous power & greed of public unions.

Belle on June 4, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Prediction: Walker loses a close race when Milwaukee, under DOJ supervision, reports a 5,000,000 to O vote in favor of Barrett. A recount will be demanded, but, unfortunately, won’t take place because all the city’s ballots will be destroyed, when the building they are housed in, accidentally burns down.

Dr. Charles G. Waugh on June 4, 2012 at 8:17 PM

Comment pages: 1 2