Statistical analysis: Nearly 95% chance of Scott Walker victory tomorrow? Update: Obama sends message of support for Barrett — via tweet

posted at 7:07 pm on June 4, 2012 by Allahpundit

I know, I know: “Don’t jinx it.” I have so few moments of unbridled optimism, though. Let me enjoy this one.

I added a question mark in the headline because Nate Silver’s not quite throwing his full weight behind the numbers. He’s using his 2010 gubernatorial model, but the dynamics of a standard gubernatorial election two years ago aren’t quite the same as they are in a recall election today. So there’s your caveat.

But it’s a small one:

Although the contest is fairly close, polls of gubernatorial races are ordinarily quite reliable in the late stages of a race. We have not officially released a forecast for the race, but Mr. Walker’s lead of about six points would translate into almost a 95 percent chance of victory if we used the same formula we did to evaluate gubernatorial races in 2010, which derives its estimates from the historical accuracy of gubernatorial polls over the past 15 years…

It could be that Mr. Barrett does overperform his polls, but not by enough to win. A benchmark for a superior turnout operation is that it might typically be worth an additional two or three points – fewer than the six points by which he now trails Mr. Walker in the average of surveys.

Nor do the polls seem to be suggesting that Mr. Walker will win because of lopsided turnout. Instead, the same polls that show Mr. Walker with a six-point lead also show President Obama ahead by about the same margin in his matchup against Mitt Romney.

This suggests that it would be dubious to come to too many conclusions about what Tuesday’s outcome could mean for November.

Yeah, I’m also skeptical that The One is doomed if Wisconsin comes through for Walker tomorrow night. In fact, watch his interview with Cavuto from this afternoon below and you’ll see that Neil puts a question to him about precisely that subject. How come the polls show Walker poised for a momentous victory, and yet the same polls show Obama leading Romney in Wisconsin? His answer: Wisconsinites tend to vote for the person, not the party. Whether that’s true or not, Walker evidently takes the data showing a preference for O seriously. Doesn’t mean Mitt can’t win there in November. Just means, I think, that it’s still a longshot, albeit maybe not quite as long as it used to be.

Don’t hold me to what I just said tomorrow night if Walker wins, though, as I want to dance in the end zone and speculate about a big red national wave as much as you do. Exit quotation: “To me, this victory tomorrow would be a victory for everyone across the country, in a local government, in a state government, and even those people like my friend [Rep.] Paul Ryan in Washington, who’s trying to do equally as courageous things. It would be a victory to say that voters really do mean it when they say that they want us to take on the tough issues.”

Update: If this is the closest The One wants to get to Wisconsin, I’m thinking the odds of Walker winning are probably closer to 100 percent.



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No matter who wins, WI still doesn’t have paved roads.

Bishop on June 4, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Minnesota still doesn’t have a professional football team.

Green_Bay_Packers on June 4, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Awesome. Well done, Lads. For my part here in Crook County in the State of ILL … I got nothin’.

Jaibones on June 4, 2012 at 10:52 PM

don’t get complacent wisconsin voters….get out there and vote

PLEASE!!!

cmsinaz on June 4, 2012 at 8:03 PM

We’re not getting complacent. Just eager to get this nonsense over with.

We did not start this.
But we WILL end it.

Sterling Holobyte on June 4, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Don’t worry. I’ll be saving the bulk of it for my jaunts downtown. A gleaming smile amongst the forlorn refugees.

MadisonConservative on June 4, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Oh, how sweet it will be to walk down State Street, listening to the pathetic chants of “Why? Why? Why?” from the great unwashed/unionists.

Minnesota still doesn’t have a professional football team.

Green_Bay_Packers on June 4, 2012 at 10:19 PM

Of which Minnesotans have been reminded of every football season for the past few years. And for what it’s worth, there are plenty of unpaved roads in Hennepin County. Ask me how I know.

Ygritte on June 4, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Update: Obama sends message of support for Barrett — via tweet
…from the sandtrap/bunker on the 19th hole?

KOOLAID2 on June 4, 2012 at 8:06 PM

from under his bed.

AZCoyote on June 4, 2012 at 10:58 PM

So the man who almost single handedly killed OBL is too chicken to go to Wisconsin.

VorDaj on June 4, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Don’t forget Rebecca Kleefisch – she’s conservative and she’s hot!

bw222 on June 4, 2012 at 11:24 PM

Minnesota still doesn’t have a professional football team.

Green_Bay_Packers on June 4, 2012 at 10:19 PM

They don’t have college football or Div. 1 basketball in Minnesota either. But, they do have the last-place Twins, last-place Vi-Queens and the Wild and Timberwolves are just as pathetic.

Remember the old ad campaign “Virginia Is for Lovers?” Well. Minnesota is for Losers.

bw222 on June 4, 2012 at 11:34 PM

Here’s the great Walter Russell Meade’s analysis to add to the mix:

A generation of activists and “progressives” raised on Howard Zinn is having an important life experience in Wisconsin. The “people united” are defeated more often than not in American politics. The silent majority isn’t itching for the “genuinely progressive” candidates and platforms lefties think they want. (That majority also isn’t looking for candidates from the doctrinaire right, either, by the way.)

Unless the voters in Wisconsin decide to surprise us all tomorrow, the trouble in the Badger State means trouble ahead for public sector unions across the country. A Scott Walker victory would reshape not just Republican politics but Democratic politics as well; leaders like Andrew Cuomo in New York and Rahm Emmanuel in Chicago will be paying attention. If Walker wins handily, more Democrats will see the writing on the wall: Support for public sector unions simply isn’t the political winner it once was. This could presage a larger post-blue shift in the Democratic party for decades to come.

Compared to that shift, the question of whether Wisconsin will go red or blue in November seems like small beer.

Buy Danish on June 4, 2012 at 11:35 PM

VOTE CHEEZE HEADS!

I”M IN MAINE AND WER”E FACING A SIMILAR FIGHT!

hooo raaa!

go scott! go tpiers!

this vote will set a shot over the bow ——–>>>>>

amend2 on June 4, 2012 at 11:36 PM

DON’T GET COCKY!!!! GOTV!!!!! EVERYONE MUST VOTE TOMORROW!!!!

(I seriously want the fat lady to sing already. I’m so nervous about this I’m almost sick over it.)

GO SCOTT GO!!!!!

Jocon307 on June 4, 2012 at 11:45 PM

The Big O will carry Wisconsin easily due to the TruCon contingent typified by Maddy.

They will write in ‘Ted Nugent’. Job done.

CorporatePiggy on June 4, 2012 at 11:52 PM

A tweet from Gen. Custer from the officer’s club at the fort. “Keep up the good fight!”

michaelo on June 4, 2012 at 11:58 PM

Obama sends message of support for Barrett — via tweet

Sounds like a sure loss and Obama doesn’t want to get stained with it. I can’t figure out why Clinton visited Wisconsin-knowing he couldn’t possibly pull a miracle. Why did Slick deliberately become Zero’s patsy?
Did Holder’s DPJ dig up further dirt?

MaiDee on June 5, 2012 at 12:01 AM

Allah better be planning a surprise surprise surprise for us tomorrow night!

ted c on June 5, 2012 at 12:11 AM

bw222 on June 4, 2012 at 11:34 PM

You’re just jealous of our tall buildings and our women who actually have all their teeth.

strictnein on June 5, 2012 at 12:12 AM

That’s encouraging on both fronts.

A winner. An ‘almost’ endorsement for the loser, from a perennial lou-who-who-zer.

Get out there and vote WI. Make the rest of us smile with some hopeful assurance.

Attack-Watch for me of ‘Teh Fail’ and his sk4nkE wife.

I am so tired for the lies. Just exhausted.

Just to imagine, any politician reducing the size and scope. No, not reducing
the growth of same. Actual reductions.

DC needs a finely sharpened chainsaw and has had for many years. Mittens, are you unaware?
And, stop with the reaching across the aisle.

The federal government is full of fail. I am not overly encouraged.

But, that aside, Barack must go. He can go to hE!!. Would that criminals…

No hammer please. I’ll stop. You all know it to be true.

mickytx on June 5, 2012 at 1:02 AM

THE TWEET:

It’s Election Day in Wisconsin tomorrow, and I’m standing by Tom Barrett. He’d make an outstanding governor. -bo

Talk about barely lifting a finger. Would love to see Barrett return the favor in November.

Tomolena1 on June 5, 2012 at 5:38 AM

Good morning Cheeseheads! The flushing of America’s toilet begins today. Good luck to those on the other side of the St. Croix.

MNHawk on June 5, 2012 at 6:18 AM

Minnesota still doesn’t have a professional football team.

Green_Bay_Packers on June 4, 2012 at 10:19 PM

What do you call 25 guys sitting around the TV watching the Super Bowl? The Minnesota Vikings.

pdigaudio on June 5, 2012 at 6:27 AM

DON’T GET COCKY!!!! GOTV!!!!! EVERYONE MUST VOTE TOMORROW!!!!

(I seriously want the fat lady to sing already. I’m so nervous about this I’m almost sick over it.)

GO SCOTT GO!!!!!

Man, I could have written that.

I am physically ill over this, complete with upset stomach…this darned election is going to give me an ulcer.

I beg you all to please, if you’re in Wisconsin, GO VOTE. And please, take someone with you! I convinced my 84 year old grandma to go vote this time, even though she hasn’t voted in years. Why? Unions screwed over my grandfather and now it’s time for her to finally get some payback.

If you don’t live in Wisconsin, but know people who do, CALL THEM! Send them text messages! Pressure them to go vote and don’t let up until they go and vote for Walker.

If you don’t live in Wisconsin and don’t know anyone here, still spread the word. Tell your friends to tell their friends’ friends Wisconsin needs every last conservative voter at the polls today!

A Walker loss means no Republican will take the helm of Wisconsin again for decades. I truly believe that. It will not bode well for any politician who tries to reform government, balance budgets, etc.

englishqueen01 on June 5, 2012 at 6:51 AM

My take.

kingsjester on June 5, 2012 at 7:03 AM

DON’T GET COCKY!!!! GOTV!!!!! EVERYONE MUST VOTE TOMORROW!!!!

(I seriously want the fat lady to sing already. I’m so nervous about this I’m almost sick over it.)

GO SCOTT GO!!!!!

THIS

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:09 AM

Alright folks, good morning. this is the deal. D-Day comes a day early this year, if you get my drift.

ted c on June 5, 2012 at 7:11 AM

kingsjester on June 5, 2012 at 7:03 AM

great take KJ
_______________________________________

funny, the lsm is telling folks why the recall occurred but won’t tell the public the benefits of the reforms that have taken place thus far….

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:12 AM

ted c on June 5, 2012 at 7:11 AM

yes it has…good catch ted

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:13 AM

What do you really think about Wisconsin, Obama? Present!

Amazingoly on June 5, 2012 at 7:18 AM

THE TWEET:

It’s Election Day in Wisconsin tomorrow, and I’m standing by Tom Barrett. He’d make an outstanding governor. -bo

Talk about barely lifting a finger. Would love to see Barrett return the favor in November.

Tomolena1 on June 5, 2012 at 5:38 AM

The sh*t-for-brains could have tweeted that from his golf cart, but I still think he had one of his flunkies/fellators do that for him using his account. As for Barrett, I’m sure he’ll be a good little minion and put his nose right where it’s expected to be this fall.

SKYFOX on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 AM

SKYFOX on June 5, 2012 at 7:21 AM

even the morning joe thought this was a little pathetic…

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:24 AM

Time to throw the electoral punch that kicks off this election season! Good luck, WI!

thebrokenrattle on June 5, 2012 at 7:38 AM

even the morning joe thought this was a little pathetic…

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:24 AM

I guess they would know that when they saw it…..

ted c on June 5, 2012 at 7:40 AM

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:12 AM

Thank you, ma’am!

kingsjester on June 5, 2012 at 7:43 AM

ted c on June 5, 2012 at 7:40 AM

yup, hard to spin that one…

cmsinaz on June 5, 2012 at 7:50 AM

See now for once we agree. Once.

I am not a Wisconsinite, but believe they are typically fickle voters and indeed do vote the person. Almost certain victory for Walker does not translate into a win for Romney. But it does launch a shot across the bow.

The good people of Wisconsin are ultimately concerned about the same issues as all of us. That is the economy, taxes and a brighter future for our children. I believe that is also a significant part of Walker’s appeal which he has delivered on as governor. Personality alone does not deliver that.

Back to voting the person, Mr. Obama represents four years of failure and he is ultimately underwhelming as a person. Why can Mr. Walker accomplish the things he has done for Wisconsin and Mr. Obama simply blames everyone else as a substitute for action? What has Mr. Obama done? Where are his proposals over the last three years? Budgets? Plan on taxes?

If you don’t think the people of Wisconsin are asking the same questions and seeing through the divisive rhetoric, it would be a large miscalculation.

Marcus Traianus on June 5, 2012 at 7:51 AM

Anyone know what time the results start trickling in?

stout77 on June 5, 2012 at 8:33 AM

Might a Walker victory be reason to break out the humpbot? Here’s hoping anyway…

Rufus on June 5, 2012 at 8:33 AM

Might a Walker victory be reason to break out the humpbot? Here’s hoping anyway…

Rufus on June 5, 2012 at 8:33 AM

Heck Yeah!!!

HumpBot Salvation on June 5, 2012 at 8:35 AM

Bob Beckel called you a union-buster and a sham.

Wouldn’t the two sort of be mutually exclusive? I mean, how can you take on the unions and kick the snot of them, and still be a sham at the same time?

eyedoc on June 5, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Does anybody really think Oblamers fingers actually hit the keyboard for this? Really?

Wagthatdog on June 5, 2012 at 9:13 AM

Did you know that you can vote by tweeting your vote to @electObama it in if you are a Democrat? (Spread the meme in late October!)

Saves time and travel for those in the #OWS camps and we know they are a bunch of gullible fools.

ProfShadow on June 5, 2012 at 9:19 AM

RECALL OBAMA!

kirkill on June 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

HUMPBOT!!! That’s what I want to see tonight when we win the recall!

Conservative Samizdat on June 5, 2012 at 11:36 AM

Update: Obama sends message of support for Barrett — via tweet
…from the sandtrap/bunker on the 19th hole?

KOOLAID2 on June 4, 2012 at 8:06 PM

from under his bed.

AZCoyote on June 4, 2012 at 10:58 PM

Or closet :)…

jimver on June 5, 2012 at 12:52 PM

RECALL OBAMA!

kirkill on June 5, 2012 at 9:23 AM

somebody is impatient there :)…Nov is not soon enough for you? :)…

jimver on June 5, 2012 at 12:55 PM

My prediction? Humpbot!!!

Pablo Snooze on June 5, 2012 at 1:59 PM

So were all five replies. FIVE

txhsmom on June 4, 2012 at 9:00 PM

…..18 hours later, still five.

Reminds me of the guy no one wanted to be near when Vader mind-strangled him on the Deathstar.

roy_batty on June 5, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Might a Walker victory be reason to break out the humpbot?

Rufus on June 5, 2012 at 8:33 AM

Humpbots, break out the humpbots!

roy_batty on June 5, 2012 at 4:54 PM

I read on a lefty site that over 100 percent
of registered voters in Madison are voting
meaning the dead are voting …
something about people registering and voting
on the same day ….

conservative tarheel on June 5, 2012 at 5:01 PM

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