Shrum: If Obama runs on his record, he’s toast

posted at 1:41 pm on June 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Robert Shrum appeared on CBS’ Face the Nation yesterday with former Pennsylvania governor and fellow Democrat Ed Rendell, but the long-time political consultant disagreed on strategy in the upcoming election.  The man who helped run eight Democratic campaigns for president, all unsuccessful, insisted that Barack Obama could not win in November if forced to defend his record.  Shrum seemed a little unclear on that record anyway:

“If you let his just be a referendum, I don’t think the president can win because the truth of the matter is he may have created over 4.3 million jobs, he may have saved General Motors, but the country is still not back to where it needs to be,” Shrum said on the CBS’s Face the Nation. “This needs to be a choice election…And if [voters] have that choice I think the president is going to be just fine.”

Shrum made the comments in response to the poor job numbers that were released on Friday and the Obama administration’s attempts to contrast the White House’s efforts to restart the economy to Mitt Romney’s record on jobs as governor of Massachusetts and at a private equity firm Bain Capital.

Appearing on the same program, Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, however, said it was “laughable” to claim the election is not a referendum on Obama’s record. “Are you kidding, of course that’s how you run elections,” she said. She added, “Really, it is his record that will win the election” for Romney.

The Obama campaign has obviously come to the same conclusion as Shrum.  That’s why they spent the last month obsessing over Mitt Romney’s record at Bain, and now want to obsess over his record in Massachusetts, which at least has more relevance.  They aren’t talking about jobs or the economy, or even anything at all more recent than 2006, unless it’s their endless hagiographies about how swell it was to run in 2008.

But even Shrum can’t get the record straight.  The number of jobs created in Obama’s first term so far is 172,000, counting from February 2009′s overall non-farm jobs number at the BLS (table B-1 from the Current Employment Survey). For the private sector, it’s 780,000 in the same period.  If we count from the first month of recovery — which would have been June 2009, four months after signing the $800 billion stimulus bill, the numbers are 2.506 million overall and 3.107 million in the private sector, neither of which is anywhere close to 4.3 million.

Nor are they anything to brag about; on a monthly basis, that averages 86,305 jobs per month in the private sector over the past 36 months after recovery, and just 69,611 in overall non-farm jobs — coincidentally, the same level of job growth as Friday’s disastrous jobs report showed.  Both averages fall well below the 125,000 per month we need just to keep up with population growth.  Even Shrum’s mythical figure of 4.3 million would have only been an average of 119,000 a month over 36 months of recovery, a basic water-treading pace at the bottom of the trough.

Shrum does get one thing right: if Obama has to run on the real record of economic policy in his term of office, he can’t possibly win.


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Shrum: If Obama runs on his record, he’s toast

Wow, that Shrum is a sharp one.

Bitter Clinger on June 4, 2012 at 1:43 PM

Shrum: If Obama runs on his record hires me, he’s toast

FIFY

Doughboy on June 4, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Most people don’t look at Downgrade’s record of Negative accomplishments as a good thing.

Chip on June 4, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Shrum: If Obama runs on his record, he’s toast

from your lips shrummie

neither of which is anywhere close to 4.3 million.

it’s in the dem playbook, they see no other number for him….

cmsinaz on June 4, 2012 at 1:45 PM

Hey Shroom: Ya think? ///

annoyinglittletwerp on June 4, 2012 at 1:46 PM

..will somebody buy these guys a vowel on this 4 million jobs thing? It’s NET, folks, net. Shrum, of course, is right if he means also that jobs are not back where they are supposed to be.

The War Planner on June 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

Oh damn, first Dick “Toe-Sucker” Morris calls it for Romney, now Bob “the Curse” Shrum does too. This kills whatever optimism I had about our chances–these guys make broken clocks look like Nostradamus.

Fabozz on June 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

What RECORD can bho run on but his total come he!! or high water wanting to crater our Republic?
L

letget on June 4, 2012 at 1:48 PM

Is there anything new or interesting here?

Certainly no reason to wake up before noon on a Sunday.

NoDonkey on June 4, 2012 at 1:48 PM

This is the most intelligent thing Bob Shrum has ever said.
Unfortunately he has never said anything else that was intelligent.

I’m wondering if i should give him credit this one time.

Gerry-mittbot-Glad Shrum isn’t on our team

gerrym51 on June 4, 2012 at 1:48 PM

This is bad news.

If seven-time loser Bob Shrum suggests 0bama could lose, it increases 0bama’s chances of winning, since Shrum has the remarkable ability to always be wrong.

Among other things, Bob Shrum called John Kerry “Mr. President” on the night before the 2004 election, and famously told Kerry the election results would be, ahem, a “fracking landslide” for Kerry.

MidniteRambler on June 4, 2012 at 1:48 PM

the truth of the matter is he may have created over 4.3 million jobs

Math is hard.

Tim_CA on June 4, 2012 at 1:50 PM

Wait till they start counting the eleventy-million jobs saved or funded by the grace of Obama.

BobMbx on June 4, 2012 at 1:50 PM

..will somebody buy these guys a vowel on this 4 million jobs thing? It’s NET, folks, net. Shrum, of course, is right if he means also that jobs are not back where they are supposed to be.

The War Planner on June 4, 2012 at 1:47 PM

It’s funny how these same Dems always used the net jobs stat to hammer Bush in 2004 for having a net loss of jobs in his term(BTW, it technically ended up being positive by the time January 2005 rolled around).

Doughboy on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

This is bad news.

If seven-time loser Bob Shrum says there is a chance that 0bama will lose the election, it increases the chances that 0bama will win, because Shrum has the remarkable talent of being wrong every time on any subject.

Among other gaffes, Shrum called John Kerry “Mr. President” on the night before the 2004 election, and famously told Kerry he would beat W in a “fracking landslide”, or words to that effect.

MidniteRambler on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

69,611 in overall non-farm jobs — coincidentally, the same level of job growth as Friday’s disastrous jobs report showed.

Hidden in that report is the fact that many of the jobs created were part time work. Further, many full time positions have been reduced to part time.

Shrum confirms the theory I posted that senior dem strategists see Obama losing the election. What is very curious is that they are admitting it publicly and are deserting him.

They are not giving Obama money and more than a few publicly disagree with him, including that startling statement from Clinton that Romney is a “Sterling” businessman, effectively giving permission for Clinton supporters to back Romney.

dogsoldier on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Doughboy on June 4, 2012 at 1:44 PM

lol. Amazing he gets gigs with that record.

Tim_CA on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

The man who helped run eight Democratic campaigns for president, all unsuccessful,

Well I have to admit this man is an expert on losing. If he says Obama is toast, I’m inclined to believe him.

jwolf on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Oops, thought the first post didn’t go through.

MidniteRambler on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Once in his life Schrum told the truth and had a reality check.

I love Rendell. His face told all.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

If we count from the first month of recovery —

What recovery?

ITguy on June 4, 2012 at 1:53 PM

“This needs to be a choice election…And if [voters] have that choice I think the president is going to be just fine.”

Every election is a choice election Mr. Shrum. Unfortunately for the president, the Romney folks are going to make sure the electorate has a clear look at the choices available.

tgharris on June 4, 2012 at 1:54 PM

can’t wait for the debate, figure there will only be one.

Les in NC on June 4, 2012 at 1:54 PM

Well I have to admit this man is an expert on losing. If he says Obama is toast, I’m inclined to believe him.

jwolf on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

lol.

Perfect.

Tim_CA on June 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Mehhh, it’s not like Mitt can run on his either.

Notorious GOP on June 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Shrum does get one thing right: if Obama has to run on the real record of economic policy in his term of office, he can’t possibly win.

Obama is a pathological liar. “You lie” was the truest thing ever told about the Narcissist in Chief.

When oil prices go up Obama blames the “spculators”.

When they go down, he takes full credit…wait…for private land explorations, which he opposed…

If the people of the U.S., the legitimate voters, don’t get the wool being pulled over their good eyes, they deserve utter total destruction in exponential order.

Wake up America. You’ve been snookered once already!

You’re being Fluked by Obama and his goons.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

Meanwhile Obama tanks on Intrade.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 1:56 PM

Meanwhile Obama tanks on Intrade.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 1:56 PM

It is true that Obama has dropped to 54 percent. However Mitt is only up to 42 Percent.

In what is a 2 man race where is the other 12 percent.

gerrym51 on June 4, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Apparently, Robert Shrum (the Lord Voldemort of Democratic campaign managers) managed to find the “soft spot on infant head of the Obama campaign” and has push on it with both thumbs.

J_Crater on June 4, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Shrum is 0 for 8 on campaigns and infamously said ‘Can I be the first to call you Mr. President’ when early exit data seemed to favor John Kerry over GWB in 2004.

Why anybody would book him for the Sunday chat factory is beyond my understanding when there are so many bright people working on campaign strategy.

Happy Nomad on June 4, 2012 at 2:04 PM

We all agree on one thing finally. A first in HOT AIR history.

SHRUM is DUMB.

LOL

gerrym51 on June 4, 2012 at 2:07 PM

he may have created over 4.3 million jobs

What is the origin of this latest whopper conjured up to baffle the chronically stupid?

MNHawk on June 4, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Shrum is 0 for 8 on campaigns and infamously said ‘Can I be the first to call you Mr. President’ when early exit data seemed to favor John Kerry over GWB in 2004.

Why anybody would book him for the Sunday chat factory is beyond my understanding when there are so many bright people working on campaign strategy.

Happy Nomad on June 4, 2012 at 2:04 PM

Shrum was on Cavuto the Sunday before the 2004 election insisting that Kerry would win. Jack Welch countered with “Bush’s ground game is better” and Shrum started sputtering with rage. Welch was right on the money on every prediction and Shrum was dead wrong. I’ll never forget it.

Missy on June 4, 2012 at 2:07 PM

Mehhh, it’s not like Mitt can run on his either.

Notorious GOP on June 4, 2012 at 1:55 PM

When it comes to records, I’d rather run on Romney’s than Obama’s.

Happy Nomad on June 4, 2012 at 2:08 PM

It is true that Obama has dropped to 54 percent. However Mitt is only up to 42 Percent.

In what is a 2 man race where is the other 12 percent.

gerrym51 on June 4, 2012 at 2:02 PM

Hillary?

slickwillie2001 on June 4, 2012 at 2:08 PM

Meanwhile Obama tanks on Intrade.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 1:56 PM

It was great watching Moaning Joe this morning. They were all lamenting the sorry state of all things Obama and one of them brought the Intrade chart slide out. They showed it holding steady at 58 to 62% approval for months with a drop to 53% since Friday. Mike almsot spilled her mocha latte grande.

DanMan on June 4, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Oh good grief, it’s a link to CNN. Why is THAT embargoed…

MNHawk on June 4, 2012 at 2:13 PM

So Shrum is stating the obvious??

The entire country knows the storyline in this election.
This is like the WWE. The media is the “bad” managers
who will cheat, lie, steal, and pull any kind of chicanery
to get their guy to win….and the “good” guy will be
fighting a handicapped match….

come to think of it, that’s every election…

ToddPA on June 4, 2012 at 2:14 PM

I wish Shrum was running Obama’s campaign

gerrym51 on June 4, 2012 at 2:18 PM

Last Friday was the beginning of the end.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 2:25 PM

DanMan on June 4, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Mika is a fool. Joe is in her pant…ies.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 2:25 PM

MidniteRambler Joe Biden on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

pain train on June 4, 2012 at 2:26 PM

now want to obsess over his record in Massachusetts

Go for it, champ. Romney had 4.7% unemployment in the midst of the dot-com crash.

crazy_legs on June 4, 2012 at 2:31 PM

Oh good grief, it’s a link to CNN. Why is THAT embargoed…

MNHawk on June 4, 2012 at 2:13 PM

CNBC too, always.

slickwillie2001 on June 4, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Liberals have foot in mouth disease this year…totally off message and key.

rubberneck on June 4, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Wow check that shirt and tie combo in the screen grab. His wife (if he has one) did NOT approve that.

Marcola on June 4, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Shrum does get one thing right: if Obama has to run on the real record of economic policy in his term of office, he can’t possibly win.

…is bright Bob Shrum another HARVARD grad?

KOOLAID2 on June 4, 2012 at 2:40 PM

Good lord…how can Shrum show his face as some sort of political expert?

Not snark….seriously, what are his qualifications for understanding national politics better than…anyone who hasn’t lost 8 national elections.

ChrisL on June 4, 2012 at 2:43 PM

Shrum: If Obama runs on his record, he’s toast

Absolutely. So Romney must hammer away continuously on that record. He must swat away all Obama attempts to deflect attention from it. Romney must shine the floodlight where the Media has refused to go. If he can do that, Romney will win easily.

minnesoter on June 4, 2012 at 2:48 PM

Last Friday was the beginning of the end.

Schadenfreude on June 4, 2012 at 2:25 PM

I’d have gone with “the final nail” analogy….the end has been coming since the midterms…..but your point is well taken.

Stick a fork in him.

Tim_CA on June 4, 2012 at 2:57 PM

What recovery?
http://polination.files.wordpress.com/2012/06/2012_06-employment-and-gop-vs-dem-leadership.jpg

ITguy on June 4, 2012 at 1:53 PM

That is the best version of that graph that I have seen. I desperately want a t-shirt with that graph screen printed on it with the words “WHAT RECOVERY?” Or, a sign for my yard.

topdog on June 4, 2012 at 3:02 PM

In a sane world, this one’s in the bag.

I say, in a sane world.

Cleombrotus on June 4, 2012 at 3:05 PM

Can’t run on his record…
can’t run from his record…
sounds like he’s between a rock and a hard place.

topdog on June 4, 2012 at 3:15 PM

Obama saved GM? More like he saved GM’s unions, by screwing over GM’s bondholders and ripping off American taxpayers (to whom GM still owes billions).

AZCoyote on June 4, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Shrum’s mythical figure

Myths – it’s all they have left.

LASue on June 4, 2012 at 3:38 PM

they … now want to obsess over his record in Massachusetts, which at least has more relevance.

They should talk about Romney’ record in Massachusetts, which was not impressive. But even with the media’s full support, I don’t think it will distract from Obama’s disastrous record.

tom on June 4, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Shrum confirms the theory I posted that senior dem strategists see Obama losing the election. What is very curious is that they are admitting it publicly and are deserting him.

They are not giving Obama money and more than a few publicly disagree with him, including that startling statement from Clinton that Romney is a “Sterling” businessman, effectively giving permission for Clinton supporters to back Romney.

dogsoldier on June 4, 2012 at 1:52 PM

Cutting their losses and looking at 2016 for the WH. Never kid yourself that Hillary isn’t still in play. Maybe even Evan Bayh, although I don’t think the Democrat party as it is presently structured would accept someone that moderate. I suspect they will put forth a lot of effort to regaining Congressional seats in 2014.

a capella on June 4, 2012 at 3:42 PM

If we count from the first month of recovery — which would have been June 2009, four months after signing the $800 billion stimulus bill, the numbers are 2.506 million overall and 3.107 million in the private sector, neither of which is anywhere close to 4.3 million.

Can someone make some sense of this? Maybe I’m just tired but I have no idea what this means.

2.5 million overall and 3.1 in the private sector… How can the private sector number by higher than the overall? Should it be 3.1 overall and 2.5 private sector?

/confused

Fish on June 4, 2012 at 3:48 PM

They should talk about Romney’ record in Massachusetts, which was not impressive. But even with the media’s full support, I don’t think it will distract from Obama’s disastrous record.

tom on June 4, 2012 at 3:41 PM

I can just hear the political ad…

Que rain and clouds.

Smarmy female voice: Governer Mitt Romney left office with a… (whispers) is this right? (still whispering) you want me to… yeah? (loud and smarmy) 4.3% unemployment rate… errr… annd…. I….

More rain.

POTUS: I’m Barrack Huesin Obama and I approve this message.

Fish on June 4, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Shrum: If Obama runs on his record, he’s toast

Thanks for the advice, Captain Obvious.

Hopefully your perfect record will be intact.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on June 4, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Isn’t he supposed to be proud of his record? That’s precisely what he should run on, though it’s a completely futile effort.

rickv404 on June 4, 2012 at 4:10 PM

2.5 million overall and 3.1 in the private sector… How can the private sector number by higher than the overall? Should it be 3.1 overall and 2.5 private sector?
/confused
Fish on June 4, 2012 at 3:48 PM

This means 3.1 million jobs created in the private sector and 0.6 million lost in the public sector for a net of 2.5 million jobs. I can’t vouch for the numbers, only the arithmetic.

topdog on June 4, 2012 at 4:12 PM

Wow check that shirt and tie combo in the screen grab. His wife (if he has one) did NOT approve that.

Marcola on June 4, 2012 at 2:38 PM

Wow, that combo made my eyes cross!!

Bitter Clinger on June 4, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Gee, I forgot. It must be 4.3 million because the Dem math always includes created and ‘saved’ jobs, too! Silly me. /sarc

Bob in VA on June 4, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Shrum – Don’t let truth get in the way of tossing out political BS!

Barry sucked the first 4 years. Given the chance, he’ll do the same for another 4 years.

GarandFan on June 4, 2012 at 5:22 PM

Shrum hands the GOP the auto-counter to the innevitable “Obama lost in 2012 because America is Racist!” claim.

socalcon on June 4, 2012 at 6:37 PM

Wow check that shirt and tie combo in the screen grab. His wife (if he has one) did NOT approve that.

Marcola on June 4, 2012 at 2:38 PM

…am strongly considering Libertarian, now.

socalcon on June 4, 2012 at 6:40 PM

Shrum is, remarkably, correct that the Resident cannot win if he runs on his (non-existent) record.

Where Shrum is as wrong as he’s ever been, and his perfect record of campaign failures proves this, is in thinking that the Resident can win by making the election about choice. If the Democrats try to stage the national election as one about choice, then they get to face their record on ObamaCare (anti-choice), the virtual nationalization of two major auto-makers (anti-choice), the confiscation of tax money for bailouts, their fight against the 2nd Amendment (anti-choice), against interstate insurance freedom (anti-choice), all of their nanny-state initiatives restricting consumption of goods from food to tobacco to fuel (anti-choice). The only pro-choice issue the liberals can claim is the one that kills innocent children, and 40 years later, the majority of the nation still opposes abortion no matter how hard the libs fight for it.

Let them stage the election as about choice. I double-dog dare them.

Freelancer on June 4, 2012 at 9:04 PM