Oh my: Obama now below 50% against Romney — in California

posted at 6:22 pm on June 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Even in the bluest of blue states, he’s now treading water at 48 percent, still comfortably ahead of Romney but unable to grab a majority even in Cali. Big deal or no? Banish the thought from your mind that Romney has a chance of winning there. He doesn’t — although don’t hold me to that if we get another three or four jobs reports that look like today’s. No, the potential significance of this and the reason why there’s some buzz about it among righties on Twitter is that it’s circumstantial evidence that The One might be starting to collapse nationally. That’s John Ellis’s point about the Wisconsin recall, after all: If Walker wins big there, then it may be a sign that a decisive national shift is already under way.

The obligatory historical comparison:

Things didn’t work out so well for the Democrats the last time their nominee was under 50 percent in California at this point. Then again, Gore wasn’t an incumbent president; Bill Clinton was, and he managed to do nicely despite an even poorer showing than O’s. Proof that this poll means nothing or should we throw out 1996 as a yardstick since it was a three-party race and Clinton didn’t have to contend with protracted economic misery?

The good news for O is that his job approval in the state is actually up several points since late last year. The not so good news:

Romney’s not gaining at his expense but suddenly, even in a Democratic stronghold, you’ve got a chunk of voters wary enough of a second Obama term that they’re moving into the undecided column. If that’s happening here, what’s happening in Colorado and Iowa and Nevada?

Don’t read too much into it yet, though. Obama’s still up by three points nationally in CNN’s new poll and Romney’s already giving up on at least one swing state which some Republicans think might be in play. Just flag this for now as a benchmark for the first post-Disastrous Jobs Report state poll of California.

Update: Via Ace, Daily Mail reporter Toby Harnden decides it’s okay to say it: Mitt Romney is now the favorite in November.

Romney wants to make the campaign all about the economy and all about Obama. There is little doubt that Obama wants to talk about anything other than the economy but at the same time he finds it very difficult to depart from the “all about me” theme that has characterised his entire political career.

Put all this together and what have we got? Romney must now be considered the narrow favourite in November. Of course, Obama could well be re-elected. But this feels like a moment similar to the one in mid-December 2007 when Obama began to eclipse Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

We are now seeing a very different race from the one Obama or the Washington cognoscenti ever anticipated. Things can change very quickly but Mitt Romney has just become the 2012 front-runner.


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and the hits keep coming. BUH BYE BARRY. BUH………….BYE!

GhoulAid on June 1, 2012 at 6:23 PM

I think CA is winnable… Sure there are a lot of illegals who bleat loudly… but they don’t vote, and the noise has had the effect of turning off a lot of the casual democrats. In CA, the gap between registered voters and likely voters is also rather large. It could happen, but not for eeyores

CapnObvious on June 1, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Don’t read too much into it yet, though. Obama’s still up by three points nationally in CNN’s new poll

The new CNN poll has Obama’s approval at 52% and Dems with a +3 on the generic congressional ballot. It’s crap.

Mark1971 on June 1, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Ahem…I believe I stated about three days ago that Obama will be fighting for his life even in California.
He may not lose, but post was about campaign money, and I was stating that even if Obama had the same amount of money, he is going to have to spend it where he never had to last election.
Obama is going to be cash strapped, and have to fight off California, Oregon, Washington, NC, Florida, Penn, Wis., Virginia, so many states he has to battle to retain or win, states that he hardly had to campaign in last time…and he will be lucky to pull in 500 people in some of his stops.
He is toast, he doesn’t have the money…but most important, people don’t have the desire to put up with him another 4 years…

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Ca is something like 15 or 18 billion in the red, 10 times the next worst state, Illinois…see any correlation?

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:29 PM

This is where a Super PAC could make for some fun. Get a few billionaires to roll the dice and pour a bunch of money into CA and see what happens.

Mark1971 on June 1, 2012 at 6:30 PM

It couldn’t be because deadbeat liberals are starting to wise up the failure of a society dependent upon the government for it’s every need, is it? Probably not!

How much processed free gubmint cheese can you shove down the throats of the masses before they start thinking about how good the real cheddar is?

BruthaMan on June 1, 2012 at 6:32 PM

Just look at the unemployment rate in Kalifornia. And we’ve got a ditzy senile Democrat as governor who wants a ‘Bullet Train’ legacy while trying to handle a $16 BILLION hole in he’s previously “balanced and realistic” budget.

GarandFan on June 1, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Don’t read too much into it yet, though. Obama’s still up by three points nationally in CNN’s new poll

Amazing. In related news if you want to avoid having your head explode, NEVER ask an Obama supporter why he or she supports him. You may get lucky with a bona fide hard leftist who will give a coherent answer about being a loud and proud Marxist, but from my experience those are few and far between. Most of the time you get the low info, MTV, my cousin’s boss knows all about politics and he told me ___________ answer. Either that or someone who reads the NYT exclusively and can tall you all about Mitt Romney’s bullying 50 years ago, but has never heard of Solyndra, F & F, etc. It is incredibly frustrating to know our future is at the mercy of this electorate.

Kataklysmic on June 1, 2012 at 6:33 PM

Well holder and team gotta get all those illegals out stat for bho! I somehow, don’t buy this in CA? If this is so, bho will so far SOL and his skinny hind end will be outta of Our House?

Better get clooney out giving MORE money and the ‘chicago’ gang out doing their thing?
L

letget on June 1, 2012 at 6:33 PM

If CA goes red then Obama truly will have done the impossible!

Browncoatone on June 1, 2012 at 6:33 PM

If you own a busines or if you are in a position to influnce hiring where you work…delay all new hires untl Q1 2013.

The stakes are too high.

We must get rid of this commie in the WH or our country faces ruin. If another 6 months of slow employment growth is the price that has to be paid, the end justify the means.

DrW on June 1, 2012 at 6:34 PM

Didn’t California changed to an apportion method for distributing the electoral college vote?

DanMan on June 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Racists. Homophobes. Haters. Can’t you people stop hating and vote for Our President? When will your War on Women end? Stay the course! Mercilessly liquidate unwanted tissue masses in the womb, the Fiend Walker, and his succubus Rebecca Kleefisch.

Forward!

spiritof61 on June 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Banish the thought from your mind that Romney has a chance of winning there.

If Gov. Brown pulls a ‘Barack Who?’ like I’m suspecting he will, look for Romney’s chances to get better and better.

The Ugly American on June 1, 2012 at 6:35 PM

Don’t read too much into it yet, though. Obama’s still up by three points nationally in CNN’s new poll ….

Before or after today’s job report??

CW on June 1, 2012 at 6:36 PM

We are living Obowma’s second term in California right now…

… Take my advice, if Obowma is re-elected, it will not turn out well for the rest of you.

Seven Percent Solution on June 1, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Romney’s already giving up on at least one swing state

We’ll see. If polls look close there come October, don’t be surprised to see Mitt or his running mate spending time in central PA. If Mitt can win there, you can stick a fork in O.

fiatboomer on June 1, 2012 at 6:39 PM

If you own a busines or if you are in a position to influnce hiring where you work…delay all new hires untl Q1 2013.

Even Steve Wynn of Las Vegas hotels fame said he’s doing this. Wasn’t he quoted as “I’m not hiring until he’s gone” ? I can’t believe Nevada will stay blue.

Marcus on June 1, 2012 at 6:40 PM

landslide

kirkill on June 1, 2012 at 6:41 PM

Obama’s still up by three points nationally in CNN’s new poll and Romney’s already giving up on at least one swing state which some Republicans think might be in play.

Excuse me, but where exactly in that article does it say that Romney is giving up on Pennsylvania? The phrase doesn’t appear, the sentiment doesn’t appear. Romney is telling some people that he doubts he can win the state; he’s focusing time and resources on other states that look like better prospects for victory; his strategy may change when the campaign reassesses after Labor Day. That’s not giving up; that’s being smart.

Mr. Arkadin on June 1, 2012 at 6:41 PM

I’ll be casting my Cali vote for Mitt as well as dragging the girlfriend, some of my “low info” voter friends and family of course. Probably won’t make a difference here cause of how entrenched the liberals are, but hey Reagan was once our governor, and won the state so you you never know…

1984 in real life on June 1, 2012 at 6:41 PM

No way California goes red, but I sense little enthusiasm from the masses of unwashed O supporters, inlcluding the 20-something hipsters. Maybe they’ll just stay home.

The sane (and by that I mean those of us who aren’t liberals/on the dole) and lots of college students who see nothing ahead with Obama but a continuing bleak job market, are pretty fired up.

LASue on June 1, 2012 at 6:42 PM

The new CNN poll has Obama’s approval at 52% and Dems with a +3 on the generic congressional ballot. It’s crap.

Mark1971 on June 1, 2012 at 6:27 PM

Did they poll the newsroom?

Go RBNY on June 1, 2012 at 6:42 PM

CA is winnable. Ask the folks in the Central Valley who they will be voting for.

Mr. Arkadin on June 1, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Romney’s already giving up on at least one swing state which some Republicans think might be in play

Don’t believe it…Pa. is in play, it’s just the rope-a-dope trick. They want Obama to put money into Ca. or NC other states, they want him ignore the “winners”…Obama will win maybe 6 states…

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Proof that this poll means nothing or should we throw out 1996 as a yardstick since it was a three-party race and Clinton didn’t have to contend with protracted economic misery?

I think more importantly was the fact that Clinton moved to the center and made some compromises to get stuff done, instead of sitting back like a petulant child hollering for his mommy to save him from the other kiddies. And, even if you hated Clinton’s policies, and I did, he was a nice guy, a good ol’ boy, practically Pollyanna compared to Barack.

txhsmom on June 1, 2012 at 6:45 PM

We are living Obowma’s second term in California right now…

… Take my advice, if Obowma is re-elected, it will not turn out well for the rest of you.

Seven Percent Solution on June 1, 2012 at 6:38 PM

Ain’t that the truth. Good ole Moonbeam says we need moar trains though! Oh and the EPA nazis say we don’t need farmers anymore, long as we got our “endangered fish” population.

1984 in real life on June 1, 2012 at 6:45 PM

Yeah, the Cali bitterment is about the state falling apart and Barry not bailing the proggies out of this mess.

budfox on June 1, 2012 at 6:46 PM

CA is winnable. Ask the folks in the Central Valley who they will be voting for.

Mr. Arkadin on June 1, 2012 at 6:43 PM

SF and LA easily cancels them out…hard to overcome several million, with several thousand…but, if SF and LA stay home???

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:46 PM

I know, it’s California so it has to be qualified 5000 ways to Sunday…

But: If he’s even slightly under water in the land of socialist milk and honey…

All Mittens has to do is contest it a little and it draws resources from the SCFOAMF, resources he won’t have for PA, VA, OH, FL, CO…

ironbill on June 1, 2012 at 6:47 PM

At the very worst this means Wyle E. 0bama is going to have to spend money here in kalifornia that needs to go to battlegrounds. Put that together with the dismal fundraising and the huge burn rate and we have a not so good place for the smartest man in the history of the universe.

jukin3 on June 1, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Death rays from Mars can win here in Ca as long as it has a “D” after it’s name.The morons here elected the old retread Brown didn’t they?Close but no cigar.

jeffinsjvca on June 1, 2012 at 6:49 PM

I want to restrain my confidence because the Dems are as corrupt as they come and will try every angle to steal it if that’s what it comes down to (but)

I’m gettin’ a 64, 72, 84 vibe

ironbill on June 1, 2012 at 6:49 PM

I think more importantly was the fact that Clinton moved to the center and made some compromises to get stuff done, instead of sitting back like a petulant child hollering for his mommy to save him from the other kiddies. And, even if you hated Clinton’s policies, and I did, he was a nice guy, a good ol’ boy, practically Pollyanna compared to Barack.

txhsmom on June 1, 2012 at 6:45 PM

And he came from a fairly conservative state, so he knew how to communicate, which was obvious as he easily moved to the center, he was not anextreme left wing liberal ideologue/terrorist, with absolutely no idea of conservative thoughts or policies.

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Preference cascade? Dominoes starting to fall from west to east? The emperor is naked already? Wow.

parteagirl on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Of course, IF Romney wins the national popular vote, under California’s “WINNER TAKE ALL”, signed into law by Jerry Brown in 2011, he will be granted all of CA’s 55 electoral votes, and he will “win” the state.

Pork-Chop on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

They are trying to sucker Romney into spending a lot of time and money in California.

It’s a Trap!!!!

portlandon on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

At the very worst this means Wyle E. 0bama is going to have to spend money here in kalifornia that needs to go to battlegrounds. Put that together with the dismal fundraising and the huge burn rate and we have a not so good place for the smartest man in the history of the universe.

jukin3 on June 1, 2012 at 6:47 PM

That’s the important point…time and money spent to defend what should be and was ignored last election.

All you military guys, isn’t the idea to spread the defenses out, thin, reduce the ability to logistically supply and reinforce…create as many battle fronts as possible so the enemy utilizes resources it never counted on?

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:52 PM

CA is winnable. Ask the folks in the Central Valley who they will be voting for.

Mr. Arkadin on June 1, 2012 at 6:43 PM

SF and LA easily cancels them out…hard to overcome several million, with several thousand…but, if SF and LA stay home???

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:46 PM

Orange county and the bay area outside SF are actually pretty conservative but it would take the entirety of LA and SF so disenfranchised that they stay home for CA to go red. It’s why early vote counts had Fiorina winning or tied until the millions of illegal immigrant votes started rolling in from LA

1984 in real life on June 1, 2012 at 6:52 PM

They are trying to sucker Romney into spending a lot of time and money in California.

It’s a Trap!!!!

portlandon on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Naw, Romney knows he won’t win…it’s another defense that Obama has to use resources…Romney could care less about Ca, except to harass Obama.

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:53 PM

CA was supposed to be competitive in 2010, but Meg and Carly got blown out of the water.

El_Terrible on June 1, 2012 at 6:54 PM

That’s John Ellis’s point about the Wisconsin recall, after all: If Walker wins big there, then it may be a sign that a decisive national shift is already under way.

A shift… already under way? Affirmed might be a better word. (See 2010)

Barnestormer on June 1, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Screw us (CA) just win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Nevada.

El_Terrible on June 1, 2012 at 6:55 PM

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Yep. I think you almost have to go back to Carter for a comparison of economic and foreign policy. There isn’t anything though, to compare to Obama’s vitriol of the American people and traditions.

txhsmom on June 1, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Even in the bluest of blue states…

When it comes to Obama the bluest of blue states is Illinois.

It currently has bragging rights for the worst credit rating of any state.

Among the proposed remedies are another dollar a pack tax on cigarettes to fund Medicaid and forcing local school districts to fund teachers’ pensions.

California and New York may have more liberal lunatics but in the bankrupting socialist policy sweepstakes Illinois, AKA Obamaland, may soon make California and New York look like bastions of good fiscally responsible government.

farsighted on June 1, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I know you guys are sick of seeing me say this. But….This cat 0 is done! He’s baked. Stick a freaking fork in him. 0 is Done!

Bmore on June 1, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Seriously, who would Obama blame if Cali went red?

The sand cats?

so-notbuyingit on June 1, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Mitt Romney will be president-elect by the time California’s votes come in. ;-D

SouthernGent on June 1, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Based on the 2010 midterms, it’s not yet time for Romney to start working towards anything more than a “First to 270″ game plan. Remember, the rule-of-thumb is that undecided voters break for the challenger on election day, but California in 2012 did the opposite, going with both Boxer and with retread governor Brown.

Obama may be under 50 percent right now in Cali, but he’s still too close to 50 not to thinks some of the undecided again will look at the current state and national economic crap sandwich and decide that’s what they want to go with for another four years.

jon1979 on June 1, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Preference cascade? Dominoes starting to fall from west to east? The emperor is naked already? Wow.

parteagirl on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

Mittsunami!

slickwillie2001 on June 1, 2012 at 7:00 PM

My read on this is that there will be many many dems and indies (whatever that is) that will find they can’t pull the lever at all. They know voting for BO will bring another four years and futures of despair but they won’t be able to pull for Romney either. Hence, they just don’t vote.

1nolibgal on June 1, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Damned surfer dudes!

profitsbeard on June 1, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Orange county and the bay area outside SF are actually pretty conservative but it would take the entirety of LA and SF so disenfranchised that they stay home for CA to go red. It’s why early vote counts had Fiorina winning or tied until the millions of illegal immigrant votes started rolling in from LA

1984 in real life on June 1, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Look again at who Orange County supported last election…OC has shifted the past decade.
Hillary and Obama got 4 1/2 million votes, McCain and Romney just about 2 million votes…feb. 5th election, 2008…

Nov. elections….Obama 8 million, McCain 5 million…61% to 37%…that’s a wipe-out, and hardly “pretty conservative”.

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 7:01 PM

OT:just saw on cnn, some media analysis indicating that 70% of the gop ads were negative and 70% of the dem ads were positive

SERIOUSLY??????

cmsinaz on June 1, 2012 at 7:02 PM

I don’t think Mitt is giving up on PA so much as recognizing the fact that there really aren’t scenarios where it’ll be critical. If conditions are such that Mitt has a good shot at PA, he’s almost certain to win OH, FL, VA, CO, IA etc. He’ll already have won the election.

If people are talking about how Mitt needs to win PA in the lead up to election, he’s toast. I think that’s what the discussion was prior to the 2008 election: McCain needed to win every single “Swing” state and somehow pull a miracle in PA too.

forest on June 1, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Evasive maneuver! It’s a trap!

I bet these polls are rigged to give (R)’s the impression they might have a shot at Cali so that the candidate invests time and money in the state.

Sounds like a typical Axelrod bait and switch to make us think the shield of California’s Death Star isn’t fully operational.

shannon76 on June 1, 2012 at 7:03 PM

OT:just saw on cnn, some media analysis indicating that 70% of the gop ads were negative and 70% of the dem ads were positive

SERIOUSLY??????

cmsinaz on June 1, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Negative for GOP = if you don’t say Obama has done well, it’s negative.

CycloneCDB on June 1, 2012 at 7:04 PM

There isn’t anything though, to compare to Obama’s vitriol of the American people and traditions.

txhsmom on June 1, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Nothing, no one even close…in fact I cringe when someone compares Obama to any other president…no one has his terrorist affiliations, no one has embraced socialist policies and leaders, like him, no one had so little background and was so unprepared as Obama. And it shows. Carter was naive, but he was not weaned on terrorism, and supported and embraced terrorists who tried to destroy, kill, eliminate our way of life.
Paraphrase, but Bill Ayers recently said, “every night I go to bed hoping and wishing capitalism would be destroyed in America, and every morning I wake up disappointed”.

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 7:07 PM

CycloneCDB on June 1, 2012 at 7:04 PM

apparently…and bashing mitt is considered positive

cmsinaz on June 1, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Obama could well be re-elected

*shudder*

cmsinaz on June 1, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Uh, they voted for Moonbeam. Twice.

Fun stats but it will most certainly break for Zero.

CorporatePiggy on June 1, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Nov. elections….Obama 8 million, McCain 5 million…61% to 37%…that’s a wipe-out, and hardly “pretty conservative”.

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Your numbers are wrong. OC doesn’t have 13 million voters and OC went red, although it was closer than usual.

El_Terrible on June 1, 2012 at 7:08 PM

breaking news: mitt just distributed his financials to the lsm….

cmsinaz on June 1, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Hi! I’m Jimmah Cartah.

Punchenko on June 1, 2012 at 7:09 PM

what do you expect when you have a bunch of spoiled bratz citizens ?

what do you expect from those who will never blame themselves but always blame someone else?

they recalled their governor in 2006. now they will recall their precious president.

do not underestimate the ABO factor in Calamifornia

huntingmoose on June 1, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Ca is something like 15 or 18 billion in the red, 10 times the next worst state, Illinois…see any correlation?

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:29 PM

That’s weird…California is ground zero for the Liberal entitlement mentality. I’m guessing that if they vote in Romney then they’ll expect that the Republicans will force austerity on the other states.

Dr. ZhivBlago on June 1, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Th entire state of California could be on fire with video of Obama pouring gasoline from a helicopter to fuel the flames as he ate live puppies and Californians would STILL vote Democrat.

mitchellvii on June 1, 2012 at 7:17 PM

mittens will have 270 before the polls close in CA, PA will go to mittens and the dominoes will quickly fall into place.

smitty41 on June 1, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Just remember that Gov. Moonbeam has a budget problem and even his OWN budget shows that CA will have to start cutting into the public employee unions. That means if Walker wins, the Moonbeam will start to cut… and the unions will squawk but what will they do against a Democrat? When NOV rolls around CA doesn’t have to go red… just have depressed blue turnout.

Depress union support, depress the blue base and then you start to see different numbers showing up in CA.

Think of it not as Romney winning CA, but Obama not taking it. And the moment Obama has to spend ANY time in CA to campaign, you will know they are in full bailout mode.

Turnout is key.

And Gov. Moonbeam does have to close that budget gap and driving businesses away from the State isn’t working, taxing isn’t working and that leaves… Big Labor.

Popcorn, please!

ajacksonian on June 1, 2012 at 7:24 PM

CA is winnable. Ask the folks in the Central Valley who they will be voting for.

Mr. Arkadin on June 1, 2012 at 6:43 PM

Wish it were so. But the largely rural Central Valley has a population of about 6.5 million, its largest metropolitan area (Sacramento) a little over 2 million. By comparison, Greater Los Angeles alone has a population of about 10 million. L.A. is solidly Democrat.

California passed an initiative last fall that awards the candidacies for state office to the top two vote-getters in Tuesday’s primary, regardless of party. The number of elections to be contested between Democrats this fall should be interesting. Gov. Moonbeam’s tax increase initiatives are also on the ballot. The results on Tuesday might be a better indicator of how Romney could do in California this November. Not holding my breath.

de rigueur on June 1, 2012 at 7:26 PM

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 6:28 PM

Exactly right. It’s a big reason (among several) for why I would love to see Chris Christie as his Veep. CC would put NJ in play as well as neighboring PA. This election, as I said many months ago, is going to be played on the blue side of the field! PBHO is going to be trying just to defending his own goal from now until Nov and won’t have the chance to try to expand in to any purple states.

MJBrutus on June 1, 2012 at 7:29 PM

OC is largely conservative – a little island along a long coast of blue. But that hardly helps when everything north to the Wine Country is overwhelmingly bleeding heart blue. CA non-Coastal should be its’ own state.

That said it is hard to find O stickers on cars or signs in yards here in OC. Even the college age bleeders are disenfranchised BUT PEU folks are running scared and will be out in force next week and everyday afterward.

And Moonbeam’s tax increase will get even the most apathetic voters out to the polls – one way or the other (should that be Dead or Alive – Legal or Not – you get the idea)

koaiko on June 1, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Mitts number 32 is lower than McCains 35 at this point.

Steveangell on June 1, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I am sensing a significant change in California. Notice how the “undecided” number has increased. These are Democrats who today would probably vote for Romney but are waiting to see how things look in November.

You will see a significant change in the numbers in mid-late July as those “undecided” votes gel. Important economic numbers due out in July for Q2 GDP growth and if it is as weak as it looks like it will be, Obama is done, maybe even in California.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 7:48 PM

No way California goes red. It ain’t happenin’.

trigon on June 1, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Remember, if the electorate were basing their decisions on a rational assessment of facts, Mr Obama wouldn’t have become president in 2008. He is arguably a stronger candidate in 2012 than he was in 2008, and the opposition is arguably worse than it was in 2008 (Mrs Clinton isn’t in the race this time).

So …

He hasn’t lost until he has lost.
Polls can be spectacularly wrong.
November is a long way away and political breezes are notoriously fickle.

YiZhangZhe on June 1, 2012 at 7:54 PM

I dunno, my ‘analysis’ may be a bit simplistic, but in it’s basic form: in 2008, the Bamster got a measly 52% of the vote. He barely won. If he’s teetering in blue states now, there can only be one conclusion: Obama goes down like the Flaming-Douche-Bag that he is.

RavingLunatic on June 1, 2012 at 7:55 PM

CA is a cluster. Everyone I know who lives there is miserable from the budget situation, unemployment, taxes and the general high cost of everything. Mitt could win CA if he really tried. Californians are beat down.

I still contend that CA and PA are winnable, Mitt. The folks are miserable all over this country. Nobama.

Philly on June 1, 2012 at 7:58 PM

No way California goes red. It ain’t happenin’.

trigon on June 1, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Probably not by November, 2012, you are correct. But if the election weren’t until 2014 there is a really good chance it would. 2014 is going to be a watershed year in California. That is when the state will be so broke, the center Democrats are going to leave the party in droves.

When people who are today paying a $100 electric bill see their first $400 or $600 electric bill, there will be a good market for pitchforks and torches in California.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Mitts number 32 is lower than McCains 35 at this point.
Steveangell on June 1, 2012 at 7:47 PM

If you have honest friends or relatives in Cali- they will tell you they are getting very concerned at the mess out there. State IOU’s are gonna start rolling again soon and businesses can’t relocate out of there fast enough. It’s gonna be Greece dejavu all over again – except with an Uncle Sam bailout.

The numbers aren’t there for Super Mitt in CA for it to go red- but with what is coming their way, we need that state to continue embrace their Euro-liberal crash path to have as a poster child for what not to do – and to have the electoral distance to say……”told ya so !”

FlaMurph on June 1, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I doubt Mitt needs CA or PA, but that would be the final insult to Zero and Co. You can’t handle the truth!

Philly on June 1, 2012 at 8:02 PM

California is ground zero for the Liberal entitlement mentality.

Dr. ZhivBlago on June 1, 2012 at 7:16 PM

Don’t count us out quite yet. California Governors from 1967-Present

Reagan R
Brown D
Deukmejian R
Wilson R
Davis D
Schwarzenegger R
Brown D

5 Republicans and 4 Democrats.

That doesn’t look like ground zero for liberal entitlement mentality.

Granted, SF and LA are full of poseurs who will vote like the in-crowd in Hollyweird, but even those fools are starting to see the light.

Of all our friends in SF who sang Odumdum’s praises in 08, there isn’t a single one who plans to vote for him again. And they were pretty hardcore Kool-Aider’s when they “made history”.

NapaConservative on June 1, 2012 at 8:02 PM

I also think that in the months ahead, the discussion amongst the Hot-Airians won’t be “will Barky lose”, but will morph into: “Does he lose all 50 states, or just 49…or 57?”

RavingLunatic on June 1, 2012 at 8:05 PM

Orange county and the bay area outside SF are actually pretty conservative but it would take the entirety of LA and SF so disenfranchised that they stay home for CA to go red. It’s why early vote counts had Fiorina winning or tied until the millions of illegal immigrant votes started rolling in from LA

1984 in real life on June 1, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Look again at who Orange County supported last election…OC has shifted the past decade.
Hillary and Obama got 4 1/2 million votes, McCain and Romney just about 2 million votes…feb. 5th election, 2008…

Nov. elections….Obama 8 million, McCain 5 million…61% to 37%…that’s a wipe-out, and hardly “pretty conservative”.

right2bright on June 1, 2012 at 7:01 PM

Actually, you both are wrong.

Orange County IS actually very conservative. It was the only county in SoCal to vote for McCain — albeit by only 3% but Bush won OC by about 20% in 2004. I expect Romney to win OC by a huge margin this year — better than Bush did.

However, the counties around San Francisco are overwhelmingly liberal — Obama won San Mateo, Alameda, Santa Cruz, Marin and Sonoma Counties with over 70% of the vote and won Santa Clara, Contra Costa, Solano and Napa Counties with over 60% of the votes. Kerry also won every one of these counties by significant margins in 2004. There are not any conservative counties in the Bay Area around SF.

On the other hand, in SoCal look for, in addition to Orange County, San Diego, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura Counties to swing heavily for Romney.

Romney is likely not to win CA – the Bay Area will prevent that. However, I do think it’s possible for Romney to lose CA within a single digit margin, especially if Obama is below 50% at this point. If that is the case, Obama is going to lose some of the important swings state big time (such as NV, CO, IA, WI and myabe even MI and PA), giving Romney a victory in the general.

I have several liberal friends in CA that have told me that they not only are planning on voting for Romney in November, but are enthusiastic about it.

Firecracker729 on June 1, 2012 at 8:08 PM

With Taxmagedon coming on January 1, 2013, and Obama and the Senate offering nothing but huge tax increases, higher energy costs, more regulation….I think the economy is about as good as it is going to get until a decision in November.

Most businesses are in a survival mode so they can live to prosper another day.

Obviously Mr. Obama is no Ronald Reagan.

DVPTexFla on June 1, 2012 at 8:11 PM

In Other News:

Hell Just Froze Over.

Tim_CA on June 1, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Orange County WAS more conservative back when there was a lot of defense industry there. It’s gone now. What remains of a conservative enclave has now consolidated around San Diego.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 8:16 PM

I have a feeling that part of Romney’s strategy on winning states is to progressively (I know, terrible word) secure them as time goes on before the election.

For example, just a month ago, people were panicking over NC and FL being toss-ups. Now with recent pollings, those two states looking particularly favorable for Romney, especially NC.

Now we are showing polls with Romney slightly ahead in OH, and with CO, NV, and IA becoming toss-up. Romney is likely now to focus on all of these states, while ignoring states like PA and CA. (I also believe VA will be safe for Romney — despite the polls in recent weeks)

However, with how awful this month is gearing up for Obama with the SCOTUS decisions on Obamacare and AZ’s immmigration law, I expect the polls to continue to move to Romney. Eventually, we are going to see polls where NC and FL will be very favorable to Romney, and will Romney leading in NV, CO and IA.

The more these states become safe for him and as the more campaign funds come in, the more we will start seeing him move to capturing the more difficult blue-leaning swing states like WI, MI, PA, NM, and maybe even OR.

Firecracker729 on June 1, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Mitt Romney will be president-elect by the time California’s votes come in. ;-D

SouthernGent on June 1, 2012 at 6:59 PM

Will he have an office?

Lanceman on June 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Overheard yesterday in a restaurant in San Diego yesterday:

“Things would have been so much better if Hillary had been our nominee. I won’t vote for Romney… but I can’t bring myself to vote for Obama again, either. Everyone I know is going to sit this one out.”

Maybe I’m in an echo chamber, but you cannot measure the passion index for Romney at this point. Typically mellow small business owners — surf board shops, pizzarias, smoothie parlors, and coffee joints — are in absolute revolt over Obama’s War on Business, and the resulting economic turmoil.

I think California is very much in play… especially if Obama relies on Jerry “highspeed rail” Brown to campaign for him.

VastRightWingConspirator on June 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

I think CA is winnable… Sure there are a lot of illegals who bleat loudly… but they don’t vote

CapnObvious on June 1, 2012 at 6:26 PM

Care to explain? A good number of illegals vote, a huge number of them have state issued driving licenses and the entire system is rigged to encourage them to vote.

riddick on June 1, 2012 at 8:22 PM

As soon as it becomes socially acceptable in the Bay Area of California to openly criticize Obama as incompetent and not be called “a racist”, it’s over. That is the only thing preventing many Democrats from openly distancing themselves from Obama in California.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Will he have an office?

Lanceman on June 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

That thought has crossed my mind, as well.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 8:23 PM

In Other News:

Hell Just Froze Over.

Tim_CA on June 1, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Nah. Liberals will vote for a rock as long as it has a (D) next to it. Didn’t they vote for a dead pol in 2008 in one of the states up North?

riddick on June 1, 2012 at 8:24 PM

In California a dead Democrat was elected in order to force a new special election.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 8:25 PM

Oh my: Obama now below 50% against Romney — in California

…then they are going to slide into the ocean!

KOOLAID2 on June 1, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Five months is plenty of time for a complete Democrat meltdown. Based on the reaction to the Bain attacks, if things get much worse they may ditch Obama before the election and just retrench for 2014 and eventually run Hillary in 2016. The wrong policies are in place, so things will not improve before then.

There is also the potential for a European meltdown before November, in which case many more people will begin wondering why we are racing headlong towards the same prescriptions. The conjurer of change better hope for the status quo for the next 5 months.

stout77 on June 1, 2012 at 8:31 PM

Will he have an office?

Lanceman on June 1, 2012 at 8:20 PM

Ha, ha. I almost had forgotten about that…The fictitious government office and seal of the president elect…

chewydog on June 1, 2012 at 8:33 PM

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