Oh my: Obama now below 50% against Romney — in California

posted at 6:22 pm on June 1, 2012 by Allahpundit

Even in the bluest of blue states, he’s now treading water at 48 percent, still comfortably ahead of Romney but unable to grab a majority even in Cali. Big deal or no? Banish the thought from your mind that Romney has a chance of winning there. He doesn’t — although don’t hold me to that if we get another three or four jobs reports that look like today’s. No, the potential significance of this and the reason why there’s some buzz about it among righties on Twitter is that it’s circumstantial evidence that The One might be starting to collapse nationally. That’s John Ellis’s point about the Wisconsin recall, after all: If Walker wins big there, then it may be a sign that a decisive national shift is already under way.

The obligatory historical comparison:

Things didn’t work out so well for the Democrats the last time their nominee was under 50 percent in California at this point. Then again, Gore wasn’t an incumbent president; Bill Clinton was, and he managed to do nicely despite an even poorer showing than O’s. Proof that this poll means nothing or should we throw out 1996 as a yardstick since it was a three-party race and Clinton didn’t have to contend with protracted economic misery?

The good news for O is that his job approval in the state is actually up several points since late last year. The not so good news:

Romney’s not gaining at his expense but suddenly, even in a Democratic stronghold, you’ve got a chunk of voters wary enough of a second Obama term that they’re moving into the undecided column. If that’s happening here, what’s happening in Colorado and Iowa and Nevada?

Don’t read too much into it yet, though. Obama’s still up by three points nationally in CNN’s new poll and Romney’s already giving up on at least one swing state which some Republicans think might be in play. Just flag this for now as a benchmark for the first post-Disastrous Jobs Report state poll of California.

Update: Via Ace, Daily Mail reporter Toby Harnden decides it’s okay to say it: Mitt Romney is now the favorite in November.

Romney wants to make the campaign all about the economy and all about Obama. There is little doubt that Obama wants to talk about anything other than the economy but at the same time he finds it very difficult to depart from the “all about me” theme that has characterised his entire political career.

Put all this together and what have we got? Romney must now be considered the narrow favourite in November. Of course, Obama could well be re-elected. But this feels like a moment similar to the one in mid-December 2007 when Obama began to eclipse Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

We are now seeing a very different race from the one Obama or the Washington cognoscenti ever anticipated. Things can change very quickly but Mitt Romney has just become the 2012 front-runner.


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Th entire state of California could be on fire with video of Obama pouring gasoline from a helicopter to fuel the flames as he ate live puppies and Californians would STILL vote Democrat.

mitchellvii on June 1, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Right. The demographic changes that have taken place in California make it hopeless – literally and permanently hopeless.

These same changes are taking place throughout America, not naturally but as a result of political action, with Republican support. Heck, when it comes to the invention Hispanic race and the creation of preferences and subsidies for it, with Republican initiation. (It began under Nixon.)

Unless the Republican Party is radically changed as starts undoing what it has contributed to doing, it’s only a matter of time before America as a whole is hopeless like California.

The good news is: this isn’t happening fast enough to win Obama this election.

David Blue on June 1, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Orange County IS WAS actually very conservative.

Firecracker729 on June 1, 2012 at 8:08 PM

FIFY.

It used to be until a number of years ago. Now that they have all the riff-raff settling in, including rabid Muslims attending UC Irvine, it just may be still “conservative”, but just and no more, and will be liberal soon. Just look at the 2010 results with local elections there, a liberal won state legislature seat there despite all of her shortcomings. I know a number of conservatives moving out or moved out already. And San Diego is also not as conservative as it used to be. Libs are spreading like roaches in CA, even once solid conservative enclave of Walnut Creek/Lafayette down to San Ramon in SF East Bay is almost gone now.

CA is pretty much done, put a fork in it until that time when state defaults on its obligations to unions since it won’t do so willingly any time soon. Until that time, any though of GOP winning again, even governorship after the new election law kicked in this year, is nothing but a pipe dream. Don’t care what polls say, won’t happen.

riddick on June 1, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Of course, IF Romney wins the national popular vote, under California’s “WINNER TAKE ALL”, signed into law by Jerry Brown in 2011, he will be granted all of CA’s 55 electoral votes, and he will “win” the state.

Pork-Chop on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

I didn’t think that law was supposed to take effect until enough states to total 270 electoral votes had signed it into law. According to their own numbers, they’re only halfway there.

That bill will last until a Republican wins the presidency with 51% of the popular vote and a blue state that the Democrat carried by 20 points has to give its votes to the GOP.

JimLennon on June 1, 2012 at 8:36 PM

chewydog on June 1, 2012 at 8:33 PM

You ain’t ChewyTheLab are you?

Lanceman on June 1, 2012 at 8:37 PM

Ha, ha. I almost had forgotten about that…The fictitious government office and seal of the president elect…

chewydog on June 1, 2012 at 8:33 PM

It wasn’t entirely fictitious. At the end of his term, Bush was governing entirely with an eye to what would smooth things for Obama.

David Blue on June 1, 2012 at 8:39 PM

As soon as it becomes socially acceptable in the Bay Area of California to openly criticize Obama as incompetent and not be called “a racist”, it’s over.

crosspatch on June 1, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Which will never happen. Affirmative action is not just government policy, it is a worldview — a way of thinking impervious to facts and logic.

The only way this could happen is if black support for Obama starts eroding to a level lower for a Democratic nominee than it has ever been in modern times. What are the odds of that happening? If it did it would be a, literally, world shaking and changing event.

farsighted on June 1, 2012 at 8:41 PM

Of course, IF Romney wins the national popular vote, under California’s “WINNER TAKE ALL”, signed into law by Jerry Brown in 2011, he will be granted all of CA’s 55 electoral votes, and he will “win” the state.

Pork-Chop on June 1, 2012 at 6:50 PM

I thought in most of those laws, there was a provision that there had to be enough states that agreed to this scheme to guarantee that there were 270 electoral college votes before that state’s EC votes would be elected that way.

But, oh, that would be delicious schadenfreude.

cptacek on June 1, 2012 at 8:50 PM

My read on this is that there will be many many dems and indies (whatever that is) that will find they can’t pull the lever at all. They know voting for BO will bring another four years and futures of despair but they won’t be able to pull for Romney either. Hence, they just don’t vote.

1nolibgal on June 1, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Like Joe Manchin, who wouldn’t say who he voted for between the Big B.O. and that felon?

cptacek on June 1, 2012 at 8:51 PM

With a billion dollar war chest I think Mitt should challenge Obama in ALL states. Make him defend territory he thinks he has won. Michigan is still doable for Mitt if he doesn’t write it off.

echosyst on June 1, 2012 at 8:56 PM

If today’s number gets revised downwards by about 70,000, what does that do to perceptions on the economy? Do people see these revisions or ate they considered old and therefore unimportant. Like Joe Biden.

livefreerdie on June 1, 2012 at 9:08 PM

If Obama loses Wisconsin and California I think we’re talking landslide here. Let’s face it, these polls are in June and there’s a huge amount of time between now and the election. Obama, however, doesn’t seem prepared to do what it would take to get people working and bring the debt down.

Right now, you have Harry Reid and the Democrats in the Senate, preparing to obfuscate and delay to get another debt limit fight going. Obama could stop that, but he just doesn’t seem to have the capacity or the knowledge to accomplish something like this. If he could just burden the Democrat leadership once again and say get it done, he would.

Barring that, I don’t really feel there’s any way he can be re-elected. Let’s face it, why would Republicans want to waste their time in another protracted negotiation with Obama, only to have him play a game and reneg on another deal. You can only do that once and he’s done that.

bflat879 on June 1, 2012 at 9:12 PM

livefreerdie on June 1, 2012 at 9:08 PM

‘Sup, libdieorfree?

Lanceman on June 1, 2012 at 9:16 PM

You ain’t ChewyTheLab are you?

Lanceman on June 1, 2012 at 8:37 PM

No, my “Chewy” is a shepherd/chow mix.

chewydog on June 1, 2012 at 9:39 PM

My parents are hardcore California Democrats and even they are proudly proclaiming that they “absolutely will not vote for Barack 0bama or any Democrats this time”. They’re not even that upset about voting for Mitt Romney. They’re way more upset that they feel so compelled to vote for Mitt Romney. My Dad said, “…due to 0bama’s complete failure time and time again after everything he promised in his campaign. We really got taken to the cleaners by that charlatan!” My Mom said, “Son, I’ve been a Democrat all my life. But I can’t stand the S.O.B.’s anymore right now. I won’t vote for a single Democrat this time. Don’t you dare tell your sister!”

My sister volunteers for the DNC and Democrat candidates in Texas. It’s like her second full-time job right now. LoL

I laughed. My folks were 0bama groupies to the max in 2008. My parents are so disheartened by the actions of the Democrats over the last 4+ years that now they’re considering re-registering as “Independents”. They’ll never register as Republicans — but it’s a step in the right direction.

FlatFoot on June 1, 2012 at 9:59 PM

Whispers are emanating from Moslem circles that Obama has made a pledge to the Moslem Brotherhood that if he can stay in the White House for another four years – either by getting re-elected or a False Flag disruption of the whole country and cancelling them indefinitely under his Martial Law Executive Order that allows a declaration of this even in peace time and allows arrest of American citizens in the name of National Security, THEN HE WILL REVERT BACK TO HIS ISLAMIC RELIGION!

And will declare himself the first Moslem president of the USA

E WILL THEN EMPOWER THE BROTHERHOOD TO ENFORCE ISLAMIC SHARIA LAW IN THE USA.

HIS MARTIAL LAW DECLARATION WILL PERMIT HIM TO ARREST ANYONE WHO OPPOSES THIS AND HE HAS A SLUSH FUND BUDGET HIDDEN INSIDE HIS HEALTHCARE LAW TO FUND THE ONE MILLION PERSON PRIVATE ARMY HE HAS IN THE PAST CALLED THE “CIVILIAN SECURITY FORCE” – WHICH HE INSISTED WOULD BE AS WELL EQUIPPED AND FUNDED AS THE REGULAR MILITARY.

FEMA CAMPS (see map of locations below) WOULD BE OR ARE ABOUT READY TO IMPRISON THE MASSES HE WOULD ARREST AND HOLD AT HIS PLEASURE WITHOUT ANY RECOURSE TO COURTS.

http://noiri.blogspot.com/2012/06/under-radar-evil.html

Capt-Dax on June 1, 2012 at 10:13 PM

FlatFoot on June 1, 2012 at 9:59 PM

There are people who voted for Obama in 2008 who say the will not vote for him in 2012.

But I have not heard of anyone who did not vote for Obama in 2008, and could have, who says they will vote for him this time.

farsighted on June 1, 2012 at 10:16 PM

California passed an initiative last fall that awards the candidacies for state office to the top two vote-getters in Tuesday’s primary, regardless of party. The number of elections to be contested between Democrats this fall should be interesting. Gov. Moonbeam’s tax increase initiatives are also on the ballot. The results on Tuesday might be a better indicator of how Romney could do in California this November. Not holding my breath.

de rigueur on June 1, 2012 at 7:26 PM

I completely agree, de rigueur, that the results of Tuesday’s (June 5th) Primary in California will be the key to understanding what may be possible in California in November.

The stupid new “top two open primary” system is being used for the first time on Tuesday and there are likely to be lots of surprising results.

Since only the top two candidates, REGARDLESS OF PARTY, will advance to the November election it is highly likely that several Congressional districts will have a Democrat running against Democrat in November. Who knows what type of impact this might have on Democrat turnout in November?

And if the Senate race for the seat currently held by Senator Diane Feinstein turns out to be a Democrat vs. Democrat race, that could depress Democrat turnout even further. There are 6 Democrats, 14 Republicans, 1 American Independent, 1 Libertarian, and 2 Peace & Freedom candidates running for this Senate seat so a Democrat vs. Democrat Senate race in November could be very likely.

I am also hoping that at least a couple of incumbent Congressional Reps get voted out of office in Tuesday’s Primary. I actually think it is pretty likely that octegenarian Rep. Pete Stark (D) will get voted out of office by the East Bay voters in the 15th District. Rep. Stark is running against a much younger Democrat and a “No Party Preference” candidate named Chris Pareja and only 2 of these candidates will advance to the November ballot. Having some longtime incumbents knocked off the November ballot could also impact turnout in the General Election.

There are lots of new strategies being used by candidates and voters to deal with the stupid new top 2 primary system. For example, since the Republican doesn’t have a chance in my very liberal Congressional district, I voted for the Democrat candidate who I thought would have the best chance of defeating the liberal Democrat incumbent either in June or November. In other districts, candidates who might normally run as Republicans are running as Independent candidates since they are in an open primary where all voters will have a chance to vote for any of the candidates, regardless of party affiliation. These new strategies will change the results in unpredictable ways.

California is going to be a wild card until we see the results of Tuesday’s primary.

Enjoy the show on Tuesday! Stock up on popcorn! It is going to be a late night on Tuesday as surprising results come in from around California.

Don’t give up on California yet!

wren on June 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

among righties on Twitter

AllahPundit. Doing the jobs Alpha males won’t do.

davidk on June 1, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Capt-Dax on June 1, 2012 at 10:13 PM

That’s one heck of a theory. How is he going to do all of this without the backing of the military?

BTW, the excessive use of caps when posing theories like this just makes most people look like lunatics but I think you may have pulled it off. Brilliant!

/

slug on June 1, 2012 at 11:54 PM

All this talk of how California will vote is just silly.

The majority of the votes are cast by mail.
We do not validate those ballots in any way.
We do not validate the registration roles in any way.

He who mails in the most votes wins.

California is no longer a 1 person one vote state.

Freddy on June 2, 2012 at 2:13 AM

You have to be high on drugs to think that Obama will lose California. California hasn’t voted for a Republican since the 80′s.

SoulGlo on June 2, 2012 at 3:09 AM

Banish the thought from your mind that Romney has a chance of winning there. He doesn’t — although don’t hold me to that if we get another three or four jobs reports that look like today’s.

Having waffles this morning AP?? :D

BigSven on June 2, 2012 at 9:42 AM

All this talk of how California will vote is just silly.

The majority of the votes are cast by mail.
We do not validate those ballots in any way.
We do not validate the registration roles in any way.

He who mails in the most votes wins.

California is no longer a 1 person one vote state.

Freddy on June 2, 2012 at 2:13 AM

Nationally, that is the one wrinkle that may keep the Obama incompetency in office where an election was able to sink the Carter incompetency. The Holder DoIJ is frantically doing everything it can to keep it that way. They litigate to a stalemate whenever states attempt to clean their rolls and prove eligibility.

CA is still, by their own greedy, delusional hand, Greece on the Pacific, complete with a dreamy Philosopher King. The lost state that doesn’t want to be found.

ironked on June 2, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I will never believe that there is fear among the American people only about the economy. There are many other things along with the economy that strikes terror in the hearts of our people about Obama. Too many fears to enumerate but fears like, why is he so quick to strike Middle East countries that have leaders friendly to the US like Libya and Egypt yet treats those with leaders opposed to the US like Syria and Iran off free? Why does he snub our allies like Britain and Poland? Why is he always critical of US? How come none of his policies has made us better off as a country? Even a blind hog finds an acorn once in a while. How come his administration is constantly leaking sensitive and even classified material? Is it incompetence, or political to puff up Obama or is it maybe even evil to make us weaker? Lord the list and questions go on and on. Never before have I feared a president before and I’ve been around since FDR started his first term. This guy has me fearing for the future of my beloved country–the greatest on earth—USA!

Herb on June 2, 2012 at 10:33 AM

The sad part of this is, that when the disgruntled Californians move out of that state they take their misguided politics with them. In that, they screw up the state they move to because cannot give up the politics that made them move. It’s like a dog chasing it’s tail.

savage24 on June 2, 2012 at 11:49 AM

Mirror, Mirror, On The Wall, Who Has The Fairest GDP Average Of Them All?

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/20091-5.html

M2RB: Dire Straits with Sting and Elton John

Jobs Picture Comparison: January 2009 v. May 2012

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/06/jobs-picture-comparison-january-2009-v.html

M2RB: The Verve at Glastonbury

Resist We Much on June 2, 2012 at 11:57 AM

I live in Sacramento and believe me there are a lot of conservatives here.Just in the last week, two of my diehard liberal friends said you could not pay them to vote for Obama again.

Winebabe on June 2, 2012 at 12:31 PM

Of course, Obama could well be re-elected. But this feels like a moment similar to the one in mid-December 2007 when Obama began to eclipse Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries.

Uh….wut? The primaries hadn’t started in December 2007, and certainly Obama didn’t start to “eclipse” Clinton until after the early February primaries.

El Txangurro on June 2, 2012 at 12:55 PM

It’s 1980 and Carter will be redeemed. He might vote for Mitt himself.

Schadenfreude on June 2, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Ed Shultz was wrong, it doesn’t matter if Romney wins or loses, there might never be another Democrat President after Obama.

Wagthatdog on June 2, 2012 at 3:45 PM

Enjoy the show on Tuesday! Stock up on popcorn! It is going to be a late night on Tuesday as surprising results come in from around California.

wren on June 1, 2012 at 10:19 PM

You know what’s really weird? Seeing more Ron Paul signs around than Obama 2012 bumper stickers.

de rigueur on June 2, 2012 at 4:07 PM

It’s like a dog chasing it’s tail.

savage24 on June 2, 2012 at 11:49 AM

More like a dog returning to it’s vomit.

Red State State of Mind on June 2, 2012 at 4:32 PM

He will win CA easily.

rubberneck on June 2, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Ed Shultz was wrong, it doesn’t matter if Romney wins or loses, there might never be another Democrat President after Obama.

Wagthatdog on June 2, 2012 at 3:45 PM

If George H.W. Bush hadn’t raised taxes in the early ’90s, the economy might not have tanked (although it wasn’t even close to what we’re going through now), and he might very well have won in 1992. In which case, you could have made an argument that Carter was so bad that it was 16+ years before the American people let the Democrats back in the White House.

If Romney wins, things rebound, and the Republicans don’t do anything stupid (I know, I’m asking a lot there), you could very well see that happen again.

JimLennon on June 2, 2012 at 5:21 PM

California is no longer a 1 person one vote state.

Freddy on June 2, 2012 at 2:13 AM

Same with WA state.

I can’t believe it is even considered a free election. If you read the instructions people can tell others how to fill out the ballot and it’s a legal vote, no privacy of any kind is required. So I can picture homeless shelters where they register everyone give them a pen and tell them to scratch their name on the bottom the bottom, then fill out the ballot for thousands in a day. And you get about 3 weeks to methodically steal elections.

WA elections are now so corrupt there is no chance to fix a thing.

By luck WA has missed much of the recession so there are less voices who care to bother with the crooked way the election is set up.

petunia on June 2, 2012 at 9:51 PM

There won’t be any rejoicing until January. Thugnist-in-chief may attempt severe damage on the way out. Loathe.

Turn right, Mittens.

Don’t forget that down ticket is equally important. 2010 was a preview.
Weepy and PostTurtle need to go. Hey, I can dream.

Baseline budgeting.

mickytx on June 3, 2012 at 1:11 AM

It’s a terrible thing to discover that the voters in California have been drinking the kool- aid. And it’s another thing to discover that there are those that still drink it and like it and put the same people back in the State House that make the kool-aid. Delusional to the highest degree.

mixplix on June 3, 2012 at 7:52 AM

It’s a mistake for Romney to even think about writing off the PA. The state has a Republican Governor, Republican Legislature, and one Republican Senator that was just elected.

The fact that Democrats “outnumber” Republicans is a moot point, there’s all sorts of Southern states that have the same dynamic yet Republicans comfortably win there. PA Democrats outside of Philadelphia are more like “Dixiecrats” than actual Pelosi/Obama liberal Democrats.

Pennsylvania has a really large population of older voters that are going to be incredibly hostile to gay marriage. The state also has an enormous amount of people in the coal industry.

BradTank on June 3, 2012 at 12:08 PM

You know what’s really weird? Seeing more Ron Paul signs around than Obama 2012 bumper stickers.

de rigueur on June 2, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Yup. Ron Paul’s anti-war, pro-legalization of drugs, and pro-gay rights policies are attracting a large and very organized following in the San Francisco Bay Area.

Both the Republican and Democrat Parties should keep a close eye on the Ron Paul/Libertarian movement.

wren on June 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Both the Republican and Democrat Parties should keep a close eye on the Ron Paul/Libertarian movement.

wren on June 3, 2012 at 12:54 PM

Delusional thoughts. Please remind us all how much of the vote Herr Doktor got this past Tuesday in his home state and hom town.

riddick on June 3, 2012 at 2:19 PM

He will win CA easily.

rubberneck on June 2, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Bet on it.

All this talk about CA liberals not voting for Manchurian come General is just that, TALK. Yes, there may be a few here and there, but by and large those 30% welfare recipients (out of total in USA), a god number of 7 million of illegals with CA driving licenses and Asylums North (Bay Area) and Shout (Hollywood) will not vote for Manchurian, but supply his campaign money. Clooney’s dinner was just the beginning.

To the point of someone above from Sacramento, I just moved out of CA/Sac area back at end of January. Save for a few conservative pockets North of Sac, and maybe to the South, the area is nothing more than liberal cesspool. Sac area is noting more than public employees (who have EVERY reason to vote liberal) plus UC Davis rabid liberal base (ditto for public employees PLUS rabid liberal brown shirts attending).

GULAG (aka state of CA) has been gone for some time now and wont be back until it defaults on its obligations to unions. They cannot file for bankruptcy and defaulting is the only way out. Once reliable conservative areas are now more and more liberal as the scourge spread out to more affordable areas beyond Asylums North and South. Orange County is just a few years away from becoming heavily liberal, San Diego is just behind. And Lodi/Fresno/Bakersfield corridor is losing more and more conservatives with each passing year of “save the smelt fish!” and farm land decay because of it. Its becoming a dust bowl.

riddick on June 3, 2012 at 2:32 PM

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