Rasmussen: Romney now up in Ohio

posted at 1:21 pm on May 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Not just in Ohio, Rasmussen states, but also in Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia.  In case you haven’t been keeping score, those are four states that Barack Obama won in 2008, and which Mitt Romney must take away to have a shot at the Presidency in November.  According to the latest from Rasmussen, Romney’s on his way.  After just one month of focusing all his efforts on Obama, Romney now has leads in all four swing states:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Mitt Romney with 46% of the vote to President Obama’s 45%. …

Romney has inched ahead of Obama in Ohio, taking the lead in the key battleground state after the president has led there for several months.  This also marks a continuing shift in the critical Core Four states – Ohio, FloridaNorth Carolina and Virginia – with the Republican now leading in all four for the first time in Rasmussen Reports polling this year.

Only the Ohio numbers are fresh, actually, but they are critical.  “Inched” is probably a good description for Ohio; Romney leads only by two, 46/44.  The low level of support for Obama as an incumbent with Romney only now winning the GOP nomination is probably the bigger story.  Rasmussen has a D/R/I sample in this survey of 34/31/35, which is much better for Democrats than the 36/37/28 that turned out in the 2010 midterms.  If anything, this poll might undersample Republicans.

Romney leads Obama among independents by a wide margin, 47/35, a disastrous outcome for Obama in Ohio. The gender gap actually tilts slightly in Romney’s favor, with a 51/39 lead among men and a 41/48 deficit among women.  Romney wins majorities among the two older age demos, while losing younger voters by 21 points, 32/53.  Obama loses or ties in all income demographics except the under-$20K demo, winning that 57/31.

Some of the questions on this survey produce rather amusing results.  For instance, 55% of respondents say they’re choosing between the lesser of two evils rather than out of enthusiasm for Romney or Obama, with the majority of Democrats enthused and two-thirds of Republicans and independents resigned to their vote.   Two-thirds say that the process has not produced the best possible candidates, with that judgment more or less consistent across partisan lines.  Among more traditional measures, Romney leads on the economy by nine points, and that will undoubtedly worsen if the jobs numbers slide tomorrow and the next couple of months, as it looks like they might.  His favorability is low at 48/50, but Obama’s job approval is worse at 46/54.  Among independents, it’s an absolutely horrid 35/65, with 45% of independents strongly disapproving of Obama’s performance.

Losing a grip on Ohio in and of itself isn’t a campaign-ender for Obama.  The problem will be whether that trend spills over into Pennsylvania and Virginia, as well as Wisconsin.  If Obama loses those states as well as Florida and Virginia, the election will be over before the Central Time Zone states close their polls on Election Day.


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@

jaketapper Bush refers to his wife as “the greatest First Lady ever” then says “Sorry, Mom.”

Imagine the bile in MO’s gut.

Schadenfreude on May 31, 2012 at 1:53 PM

That’s a great line! And yes, Mooch is as big a narcissist as her spouse.

Happy Nomad on May 31, 2012 at 2:17 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

We have guns and know how to use them.

patch on May 31, 2012 at 2:17 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

They burn their own neighborhoods down, they’re that stupid.

Urban renewal.

NoDonkey on May 31, 2012 at 2:19 PM

Just heard Rush talking about what a smart move it was for Romney doing a photo-op in front of the Solyndra sign.

I like that, that’s pretty awesome!

Rush is giving Mitt props for not repudiating Trump or himself like McCain would’ve done.

LevinFan on May 31, 2012 at 2:20 PM

Ohio and PA are choker block full of Polish Americans. Obama is toast. being old PA boy I cna tell you you can’t throw a rock without hitting a Pollok, meant in the kindest of ways :)

Skwor on May 31, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Obama’s gaffe about death camps will probably hurt him with Catholics–has Obummer forgotten that the last Pope was Polish?

Steve Z on May 31, 2012 at 2:23 PM

That’s a great line! And yes, Mooch is as big a narcissist as her spouse.

Happy Nomad on May 31, 2012 at 2:17 PM

…and you, erroneously, called me a “Kenyan lover” the other day.

Schadenfreude on May 31, 2012 at 2:25 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Some think they can wave a gun and go “boo!” and rioters will flee like a vampire from a crucifix.

The realists are scared because they know how outnumbered they are. And the fact that a lot of the welfare leeches have used and/or lived under threat of getting gunned down all their lives.

MelonCollie on May 31, 2012 at 2:30 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Sure sound like a threat. Remind me again who practices voter intimidation? Looks like the mask slips are the pressure mounts.

Skwor on May 31, 2012 at 2:33 PM

The last time I voted FOR somebody was 1980.

cartooner on May 31, 2012 at 1:56 PM

OMG. Another John Anderson supporter. I thought we were all dead.

creeper on May 31, 2012 at 2:33 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Some think they can wave a gun and go “boo!” and rioters will flee like a vampire from a crucifix.

The realists are scared because they know how outnumbered they are. And the fact that a lot of the welfare leeches have used and/or lived under threat of getting gunned down all their lives.

MelonCollie on May 31, 2012 at 2:30 PM

Then they’ll fulfill a prophecy when they get shot trying to burn someone’s house or business down.

Yes, this is going to be ugly before and after. Doesn’t mean we should go and hide.

kim roy on May 31, 2012 at 2:45 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 P

What are you saying: Vote for Obama and nobody gets hurt? Go with that. Nice slogan.

Right Mover on May 31, 2012 at 2:49 PM

According to this article, Romney has essentially written PA off.

Flora Duh on May 31, 2012 at 2:50 PM

I am so proud to be a former Ohioan.

DuctTapeMyBrain on May 31, 2012 at 2:56 PM

They burn their own neighborhoods down, they’re that stupid.

Urban renewal.

NoDonkey on May 31, 2012 at 2:19 PM

+1

RockyJ. on May 31, 2012 at 2:58 PM

@jaketapper Bush refers to his wife as “the greatest First Lady ever” then says “Sorry, Mom.”

@jaketapper Laura Bush jokes “nothing makes a house a home like pictures of its former occupants staring down at you”….

Flora Duh on May 31, 2012 at 1:48 PM

To me this is high humor, and very good-natured.

The crank “psychiatrist” Justin Frank who wrote “Bush on the Couch” and has been analyzing the Presidents would say “GW Bush betrays his deep-seated hostility to his mother. Laura Bush, with her seething anger, tries to make Michelle Obama uncomfortable”.

Paul-Cincy on May 31, 2012 at 2:58 PM

Dont worry, PPP will release polls tomorrow that show Obama up by 10 in each state. Of course the polling will have been conducted at the PPP headquarters, adn surrounding areas and will have a crosstab of 50/22/28, D/R/I, but that will skew RCP’s average and all will be good again.

It is pretty clear that unless something drastic happens, the real battleground states wont be Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. They will be Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Minnesota.

milcus on May 31, 2012 at 3:01 PM

Whatever you may think of Romney, there is a definite benefit to having a guy who doesn’t even drink coffee on the ticket when the left-wing smear machine starts firing up. So far the best they can do for dirt is a high school prank. They just aren’t going to find any sex/drugs/alcohol fodder on this guy.

FuzzyLogic on May 31, 2012 at 2:16 PM

Sooner or later they will try something, anything, they will be beyond desperate..

RockyJ. on May 31, 2012 at 3:03 PM

Yep. This is why I can’t get too excited. Too much time and an increasingly desperate LSM/Obama minions. If they can’t find something to distract the low info voters, then they’ll make it up.

This is going to get really ugly. Look at what they did to Cain and he really wasn’t a front runner.

Well, they may try, but the after effects might be that people will see it for what it is: a pathetic and desperate attempt to smear that will go pop and deflate immediately. I think people are getting sensitized to attempts to sling made-up dirt and are beginning to be skeptical about it to the point that they don’t automatically believe it, especially coming from someone like David Axelrod.

Romney and his campaign managers seem to be pretty aggressive about countering whatever Obama has been able to come up with so far. Romney’s in this to win, and I find it hard to believe that he and his campaign are not prepared to go on the offensive over them.

PatriotGal2257 on May 31, 2012 at 3:06 PM

According to this article, Romney has essentially written PA off.

Flora Duh on May 31, 2012 at 2:50 PM

They must have missed Super Mitt’s visit to Philly a week ago- Romney went “right” into the lion’s den of a socialist Democrite stronghold. While he didn’t get the messianic welcome- he was making a statement- a very bold statement to Team Obie.

I think whomever wrote those words of supposition disguised as a news article…. is a pinhead.

FlaMurph on May 31, 2012 at 3:06 PM

t is pretty clear that unless something drastic happens, the real battleground states wont be Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. They will be Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Minnesota.

milcus on May 31, 2012 at 3:01 PM

.
Florida is not a battleground state. Oliar won this state by 240,000 votes out of 8-1/2 million. He has easily lost that margin of victory, a few times over. Turnout will only determine if Obamy keeps it somewhat close or not.

2010 sent a clear message from Florida that we made a mistake in 2008. (As many others did as well) But its good that the media will make sure the conservative voters will keep the cart on the right end of the horse.

FlaMurph on May 31, 2012 at 3:17 PM

forest on May 31, 2012 at 1:53 PM

Are you forgetting McDonnell’s 18 pt win? Va is going red. Obama won Wisconsin by 14 and yet Scott Walker will likely win decisively on Tuesday in what has become a national referendum election. If Romney is tied in Wisconsin now, imagine how that will look with a 2 Billion campaign in full gear this fall and after SCOTUS throws out obamacare: 35-40 state landslide.

phillysfinest on May 31, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Good trends.

hawkdriver on May 31, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Where is Romney leading in PA? I missed that.

VorDaj on May 31, 2012 at 4:04 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

There’s a whole new generation of big-screen TVs to be had since the last riots!

slickwillie2001 on May 31, 2012 at 4:12 PM

But Charles Barkley said that Romneys going down.

newportmike on May 31, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Moochelle’s gonna love vacationing on the banks of Lake Erie this summer.

JammieWearingFool on May 31, 2012 at 1:24 PM

Listening to some Lake Erie Delta Blues no doubt…

Del Dolemonte on May 31, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Preference cascade. The greatest fear of Obama, the MSM, and the left. They’ll fight it, but they may already have lost.

AcidReflux on May 31, 2012 at 4:19 PM

Some think they can wave a gun and go “boo!” and rioters will flee like a vampire from a crucifix.

The realists are scared because they know how outnumbered they are. And the fact that a lot of the welfare leeches have used and/or lived under threat of getting gunned down all their lives.

MelonCollie on May 31, 2012 at 2:30 PM

If you are waving your gun in the air and going ‘boo!’, you’re not using it right.

kbTexan on May 31, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Hey!, I live on the banks of Lake Erie! Maybe get Big O and Moochelle to walk in the Roundhouse @ Put-in-Bay when Mad Dog’s Playin’! Gay or straight???
LOLOL

mactoid on May 31, 2012 at 4:47 PM

ddrintn, angryed, honda, a stoner and the more insane ABRs now on suicide watch.

Basilsbest on May 31, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Over what, a poll? LOL That’s for you ‘bots thatb live and die by them. I thought they are meaningless until after Labor Day or something. Now every poll that shows Romney a point or two ahead is a sign of a Mitt tsunami.

ddrintn on May 31, 2012 at 5:05 PM

How many of you are prepared for the inner city and college campus rioting that will follow from election night? If you thought the LA riots were bad, wait to that happens in many cities simultaneously.

keep the change on May 31, 2012 at 2:03 PM

Nahhhhhh, the ‘bots will just come here and vent a while at TrueCons. No riots. LOL

ddrintn on May 31, 2012 at 5:08 PM

with the majority of Democrats enthused and two-thirds of Republicans and independents resigned to their vote.

LOL. Ouch.

ddrintn on May 31, 2012 at 5:13 PM

“If Romney is tied in Wisconsin now, imagine how that will look with a 2 Billion campaign in full gear this fall and after SCOTUS throws out obamacare: 35-40 state landslide.”

Romney is not tied in WI. In the same poll released yesterday that showed Walker up 7, it also has Obama up 8 over Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on May 31, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Romney and Obama are now tied in Iowa at 44 to 44. In Colorado, Obama is up by 1, a statistical tie within the margin of error. In Nevada, Obama is up by 2, also within the margin of error. Those three are states Obama won in 2008. Add those to the four mentioned in this article and that is seven states at risk for Obama.

Obama is in DEEP trouble.

crosspatch on May 31, 2012 at 5:38 PM

…Over what, a poll? LOL That’s for you ‘bots thatb live and die by them. I thought they are meaningless until after Labor Day or something. Now every poll that shows Romney a point or two ahead is a sign of a Mitt tsunami.

ddrintn on May 31, 2012 at 5:05 PM

Mittsunami! Great word.

slickwillie2001 on May 31, 2012 at 5:59 PM

“If Romney is tied in Wisconsin now, imagine how that will look with a 2 Billion campaign in full gear this fall and after SCOTUS throws out obamacare: 35-40 state landslide.”

Romney is not tied in WI. In the same poll released yesterday that showed Walker up 7, it also has Obama up 8 over Mitt.

gumbyandpokey on May 31, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Awwwww. Buzzkill.

Romney and Obama are now tied in Iowa at 44 to 44. In Colorado, Obama is up by 1, a statistical tie within the margin of error. In Nevada, Obama is up by 2, also within the margin of error. Those three are states Obama won in 2008. Add those to the four mentioned in this article and that is seven states at risk for Obama.

Obama is in DEEP trouble.

crosspatch on May 31, 2012 at 5:38 PM

I guess you don’t remember 2004 when Bush was dooooooooomed and Kerry was leading in so many polls.

ddrintn on May 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

ddrintn on May 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

First of all, Bush won in 2004 by about the same popular vote margin Obama won in 2008.

The difference here is momentum. I am not interested in seeing who is winning right now in a poll so much as I am seeing how much candidates are changing over time. Obama is sinking. It is becoming increasingly acceptable in even liberal venues to criticize Obama. The most common criticism I have seen to date (I live in a rather liberal area so I do read a few internet sites that lean left) is along the lines of “we thought he was going to be different but turned out to be no different than all the other politicians”. THIS is where team Romney can get a lot of traction with ads in liberal areas.

But overall, places like Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida are key to the Obama campaign. If he loses those, he loses the election. It pretty much is that simple.

crosspatch on May 31, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Ohio and PA are choker block full of Polish Americans. Obama is toast. being old PA boy I cna tell you you can’t throw a rock without hitting a Pollok, meant in the kindest of ways :)

Skwor on May 31, 2012 at 1:49 PM

Skwor I think you mean chock-a-block. The term arises from the blocks (a pulley or a set of pulleys in a wooden casing) in a ship’s rigging getting jammed together. That ends today’s lesson children.

Fafhrd on May 31, 2012 at 7:35 PM

HELLO CLEVELAND!!!

Gimmie Mitt
Gimmie Mitt
You Rock and Roll me
Till I’m Sick!

He’s getting two Ohio Votes from my house. My wife and I have a running joke of a conspiracy theory that we secretly run the world from our basement.

Hope it works in November.

Buck Turgidson on June 1, 2012 at 1:05 AM

First of all, Bush won in 2004 by about the same popular vote margin Obama won in 2008.

So?

The difference here is momentum.

crosspatch on May 31, 2012 at 7:25 PM

It’s no different now than in 2004. Kerry had the momentum and Bush looked to be in deep DEEP trouble.

ddrintn on June 1, 2012 at 2:15 PM

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