Analyst: Expect tomorrow’s net jobs gain to be … 54,000

posted at 3:21 pm on May 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Really?  Expectations among economic analysts for tomorrow’s job number revolve around a mediocre 150,000, which an earlier CNBC report called “sharply higher” over April’s 115,000 added jobs, which is an absurd description; that’s barely outside of a margin-of-error revision.  Today’s even-more mediocre ADP report still pegged private-sector growth at 133,000, and while ADP tends to come in high, that would be a rather significant miss.

Still, MIG Bank’s Ron William tells CNBC that expectations are overstated, and that the trends and momentum portend a much lower level of job creation than even the water-treading level suggested by ADP.  In fact, it’s likely to get even worse this summer, and perhaps drop into negative territory:

When looking at an economic indicator from a technical analysis perspective, the factors to look at are key levels, changes in momentum, cycles and correlation, according to Ron William, a technical analyst at MIG Bank.

“Nonfarm payroll has been decelerating since the beginning of 2012,” William told CNBC.com. “The probability of an acceleration of that down move is high over the next two quarters.”

The data lost positive momentum after failing to hold above the 2011 high of 251,000, and has also remained beneath a multiyear ceiling of around 340,000. During January 2012 “the loss of upside momentum triggered a DeMark exhaustion signal,” he said.

An exhaustion signal usually indicates a reversal in the trend. The DeMark Indicators are a collection of sophisticated market-timing tools created by Tom DeMark over the course of nearly 40 years in the financial industry.

“The key level that everyone in the market should be focusing on [for nonfarm payrolls] is 54,000,” William added. “I think that over the multimonth period the probability favors that we test this area and maybe move into negative territory if it is confirmed.”

Over the next two quarters?  That’s exactly what the White House and Barack Obama’s campaign don’t want to hear.  They have insisted that Obama has built momentum for economic growth, and the winter seemed to have hinted at some kind of momentum shift to the positive.  Now we’re looking at the potential for job numbers to return to sub-100K growth levels, and potentially back in the red.  That’s not the kind of momentum that wins elections.

On the other hand, reader and commenter DogSoldier wonders whether this might be a bit of an expectations-management game in the investor community.  By getting a worst-case scenario on the table today, a mediocre result tomorrow might do less damage.  I’m not sure that the difference between the two points is significant enough for that to work, though, since even a 150K result will look stagnant and breed pessimism about summer growth.

Let’s take a poll to predict tomorrow’s numbers.  Rather than guess the rate this month, let’s focus on net job growth in tomorrow’s report.  What level do you expect to see? I’ll predict a net job gain of 90,000 and an unemployment rate of 8.2%.


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As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.
 
lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Over 9000!

lorien1973 on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

The number will be whatever they feel they need.

forest on May 31, 2012 at 3:28 PM

The real story about how the car ended up in the ditch: Choom & The Gang mixed TA, roof hits, and Slurpee brain freeze, and they rolled it.

Christien on May 31, 2012 at 3:29 PM

…an earlier CNBC report called “sharply higher” over April’s 115,000 added jobs..

Not to worry. If it is 54,000 or thereabouts tomorrow, I’m sure they’ll report it as “sharply lower”…

Hesiodos on May 31, 2012 at 3:30 PM

88K and 8.1%

crazywater on May 31, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Sorry, I don’t believe any numbers coming out of the wh or dc any longer! It seems they lie, lie, and more lies to make the numbers make bho look good? They will be revised next week anyway to show more of a loss?
L

letget on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

i am exhausted with all the DeCrap this admin peddles.

t8stlikchkn on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

And to think that when Obowma put his boot on the American economy and free market system…

… some people expected a different result.

O_O

Seven Percent Solution on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

I think I caught some of your work yesterday too. That is one well stocked vault you have there.

DanMan on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Step 1. Spend the presidency and especially the summer of 2012 driving the economy into the ditch.

Step 2. Make certain that job growth stagnates to the point that the rabble begins demonstrating in the streets.

Step 3. Taking all indicators and conditions into account, declare martial law to “preserve the safety of the citizenry”.

Step 4. No elections.

Step 5. Moochell takes a vacay on the public dime.

AubieJon on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

The number will be whatever they feel they need.

forest on May 31, 2012 at 3:28 PM

Is that what economists mean by the expression “massaging the data?” I’ve heard them use that and want to make sure its meaning I understand correctly.

Christien on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

68,000 jobs that will miraculously lower the UE down to 8% as 350,000-380,000 more people leave the job market.

jukin3 on May 31, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Listening to Ed discuss this live now. Basically, Ed says that it’s almost too late for JugEarz to do anything meaningful to turn the jobs numbers around in time for the election. To restate a comment I made in an earlier post:

What happens when profits fall? Jobs don’t get created, and business doesn’t expand. Don’t expect a significant boost in job creation this summer, in other words, or perhaps even the fall. Looks like we’re in for another Stagnant Spring and Wreckovery Summer once again.

..it’ll be more than that, Ed. Looming just after the election is another debt ceiling fight and gauging by Preezy’s Fight or Flight preferences for the last dust-up (and especially if he loses), he’ll be playing at least two rounds of golf per day. After that there’s the Taxmageddon thing that — one can be certain — the lame duck Congress and gummint will want to address in the 20 days or so left in their work year.

Oh yes, and then there’s the question of wither ObamaCare (or the unrejected remnants thereof) in 2013. Bottom line: not a screaming amount of certainty in that picture.

So here’s the exit question: as a business, given all this, how much hiring will you be doing over the next four or five months?

Naw, mate, the employment, spending, and economic numbers are gonna stink up the barn from now until JugEarz is gone. Hopefully and changefully, that will be on November 6th.

..o.k., there goes 8 of my 15 minutes. Thanks for listening.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:32 PM

Over 9000!

lorien1973 on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

What?! 9000?!

nobar on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Funny. Obozo can continue to try and “blame booosh” for this but after 3 1/2 years, these problems really look like results of his policies and also what his opponent will inherit in January 2013.

HomeoftheBrave on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I was very surprised by this and wondered if it was rope a dope. From this level they may say 100k exceeds expectations.

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I have been saying it for over a month now. With Europe imploding and gas prices dropping for no good reason, I see negative growth occurring before the election. Layoffs are currently accelerating and the sector I work in is a lot slower right now compared to last year.

NotCoach on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

If the economy starts sinking their is something that is going to come back to bite Obama. A few months after he took office he decided to keep all the Bush tax cuts, even on high earners. He is on record saying that you don’t raise taxes during a recession. I’m sure the Romney campaign would have a great time replaying this clip at every opportunity.

Mark1971 on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I predict that whatever the numbers will be they will be revised downward in the next report. I also predict that the previous numbers will be revised downward from the last report and used with adjectives by some LSM writers to show how much “more” in the direction on “improving” things are trending.

While I am at it, I predict that the sun will rise in the East, water will continue to be wet and that General Francisco Franco will still be dead.

Betenoire on May 31, 2012 at 3:34 PM

Sorry, I don’t believe any numbers coming out of the wh or dc any longer! It seems they lie, lie, and more lies to make the numbers make bho look good? They will be revised next week anyway to show more of a loss?
L

letget on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

..take your point, but you do realize that the ADP numbers are produced by a private payroll software services form, don’t you?

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:34 PM

form == firm, of course.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:35 PM

BLS will put out whatever number the Regime and its willing accomplices in the media need it to be to spin that it’s another banner month of job creation. Even though it’s complete BS.

I sure hated those days of 5% unemployment and only 300k new jobs created. Obamanomics is working as expected.

smfic on May 31, 2012 at 3:35 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

I think I caught some of your work yesterday too. That is one well stocked vault you have there.

DanMan on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

Agreed. Glad someone is archiving the BS Less posts.

Del Dolemonte on May 31, 2012 at 3:35 PM

LANDSLIDE!!!!

faraway on May 31, 2012 at 3:35 PM

Does that number include those jobs not eliminated via creative accounting? Like ‘no civilain casualty’ because of a different way of counting.

In that case, this admin can claim whatever number they want. The public will learn to tune them out.

Sir Napsalot on May 31, 2012 at 3:35 PM

I voted “over 200K” just because Obama is that stinkin’ awesome.

search4truth on May 31, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Over 9000!

lorien1973 on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

What?! 9000?!

nobar on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

Inflation. Originally it was over 8000- guess government accounting was used there as well. ;)

Betenoire on May 31, 2012 at 3:36 PM

Wow! If that is true then every American that wants a job will now have one.

FORWARD BABY!

Still waiting for November forecast. Will it be 100,000 less 2?

sdbatboy on May 31, 2012 at 3:37 PM

I was very surprised by this and wondered if it was rope a dope. From this level they may say 100k exceeds expectations.

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

..but the 100K will still be far less than what is needed to count as job growth — that is, greater than the net population entering into the work force — in this economy. I believe that is somewhere North of 200K.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Man ! Sub 100K job creation. Walker wins next week.
The $’s will really dry up.
May have to pull Obama off the campaign trail.
Only hope for any down ticket success.

Jabberwock on May 31, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Does that number include “jobs created or saved?”

What matters is the NET job change (created – lost)

ProfShadow on May 31, 2012 at 3:38 PM

To Infinity…. and beyond!

faraway on May 31, 2012 at 3:38 PM

What?! 9000?!

nobar on May 31, 2012 at 3:33 PM

There’s no way that can be right!

lorien1973 on May 31, 2012 at 3:39 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM
 
I think I caught some of your work yesterday too. That is one well stocked vault you have there.
 
DanMan on May 31, 2012 at 3:31 PM

 
Agreed. Glad someone is archiving the BS Less posts.
 
Del Dolemonte on May 31, 2012 at 3:35 PM

 
Ha. It’s just google. Type site:hotair.com and your search term.

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:40 PM

Bigger question; what’s the over/under on the use of the word unexpected tomorrow?

reddevil on May 31, 2012 at 3:41 PM

Perhaps the Ministry of Spin has decided to endure lower numbers now so they can suddenly find the “improvements” in October.

Archivarix on May 31, 2012 at 3:42 PM

It’ll be 54,000…. because that’s the error that Scott Walker found in the Wisconsin numbers.

Daisy_WI on May 31, 2012 at 3:42 PM

..but the 100K will still be far less than what is needed to count as job growth — that is, greater than the net population entering into the work force — in this economy. I believe that is somewhere North of 200K.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:38 PM

You are correct. It’s approx. 250k

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 3:42 PM

And whatever number they come out with, in a week or two, it will come out that it is ‘Unexpectedly worse’ than originally calculated.

LegendHasIt on May 31, 2012 at 3:42 PM

Bigger question; what’s the over/under on the use of the word unexpected tomorrow?

reddevil on May 31, 2012 at 3:41 PM

OR what is the over/under of it being “unexpectedly” revised downward in a few days?

Gunlock Bill on May 31, 2012 at 3:43 PM

Who are the idiots that voted over 200k? Laughable, if it weren’t such an ongoing tragedy.

There are a lot of facets to this mess. Trying to pin job creation and loss numbers on any one factor not only makes one look foolish, but when the numbers don’t bear out your predictions it makes you look either partisan, stupid, or both.

Wolfmoon on May 31, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Everybody gives up and unemployment drops to zero.

Ukiah on May 31, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Bush did it … again.

faraway on May 31, 2012 at 3:44 PM

Oh how I wish this were true:

Basically, Ed says that it’s almost too late for JugEarz to do anything meaningful to turn the jobs numbers around in time for the election

Though encouraging – until the election is over all of these opinions are nothing more than noise. Too many people vote based on how they feeeeelll the two weeks prior to the election.

I do think if Consumer Confidence remains low that in itself will hurt Carter II.

sdbatboy on May 31, 2012 at 3:46 PM

You are correct. It’s approx. 250k

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 3:42 PM

..thought so. Thanks.

But your posit that they might make hay out of — say — 120,000 exceeding the 54,000 is not beyond the realm of reality. Well, it is, but I mean them trying to beat the drums and saying they beat the estimate. The way that campaign is going, they would do something like that — and have it blow up in their face.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Where’s that Steve Egg guy?

Charlotte, go get that Egg guy. I want to hear what he thinks, because he said something completely different yesterday.

Pam, go get Charlotte.

Axe on May 31, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Bush did it … again.

faraway on May 31, 2012 at 3:44 PM

And Obama said it in his presence today at WH.
The man has NO shame.

Jabberwock on May 31, 2012 at 3:49 PM

But Axelrod says we can’t handle the truth…?

/

Seven Percent Solution on May 31, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Over 9000!

I love it when other people pay attention to internet memes.

TheLastBrainLeft on May 31, 2012 at 3:50 PM

The way that campaign is going, they would do something like that — and have it blow up in their face.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 3:46 PM

Yup!

Axe on May 31, 2012 at 3:47 PM

Steve predicted 98k Yesterday, I went with 110k.

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Really? Expectations among economic analysts for tomorrow’s job number revolve around a mediocre 150,000, which an earlier CNBC report called “sharply higher” over April’s 115,000 added jobs, which is an absurd description; that’s barely outside of a margin-of-error revision. Today’s even-more mediocre ADP report still pegged private-sector growth at 133,000, and while ADP tends to come in high, that would be a rather significant miss.

Umm … you can’t have it both ways, Ed. If 150k is “barely outside the margin-of-error revision” of 115k, then 133k can’t be a “rather significant miss” vs. 150k.

I don’t mind the overall point that you are making. But you can’t be fuzzy with these numbers and their significance. Either both sets of numbers are within the margin of error, or they’re both big changes.

nukemhill on May 31, 2012 at 3:52 PM

Over 9000!

lorien1973 on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBtpyeLxVkI

Optimus Prime on May 31, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Wait for it….

“These job numbers are raaaaacist!!!!!!!” – hand-picked Obama Administration spokesperson

TeresainFortWorth on May 31, 2012 at 3:53 PM

Poor numbers over the next few months will make mediocre numbers in September and October look better. Obama will say that the economy is kicking into high gear.

Wigglesworth on May 31, 2012 at 3:56 PM

It will be up a gajillion. the VP says this is a big effin’ deal.

Rocks on May 31, 2012 at 4:00 PM

The hiring of “interns” is in full swing for the summer. Our IT dept just brought in the usual crop… cheap labor wins out.

Mr_Magoo on May 31, 2012 at 4:00 PM

As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.

lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM
rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

Who wouldn’t want to own the Titanic, the Hindenburg or the Edsel?

NoDonkey on May 31, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Sure am glad that Barry is ‘focused laser-like on jobs’!

GarandFan on May 31, 2012 at 4:03 PM

As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.

lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM

Oh, you bet, and the moon is made out of green cheese. Anybody that buys this garbage call me . . . I have several large bridges to sell.

rplat on May 31, 2012 at 4:03 PM

Poor numbers over the next few months will make mediocre numbers in September and October look better. Obama will say that the economy is kicking into high gear.

Wigglesworth on May 31, 2012 at 3:56 PM

Nope !
It would be a ready made ad for Romney.
Remember “Recovery Summer” of 2010 and 2011 ?
Third time would be strike three. No way he sets himself up for that.
Then again, maybe he will.

Jabberwock on May 31, 2012 at 4:05 PM

Oof…how long until we start hearing Hilary for VP rumors again to try and get some enthusiasm? Although if her, why in the hell would you attach yourself to this sinking ship?!?

nextgen_repub on May 31, 2012 at 4:05 PM

200K plus. Not a doubt in the world.

In fact, I’ll be hugely disappointed if it’s lower. It’ll be entirely unexpected, if you know what I mean.

MTF on May 31, 2012 at 4:07 PM

Sure am glad that Barry is ‘focused laser-like on jobs’!

GarandFan on May 31, 2012 at 4:03 PM

On his and Joe Biden’s, anyway.

NoDonkey on May 31, 2012 at 4:09 PM

The unemployment rate WILL be below 8.0% by November regardless of the actual circumstances. This administration has made lying an artform, as they simply raise the number of people who have “given up looking for work” to whatever level necessary to drop the unemployment rate. The Dems understand the power of this number to much of the uninformed electorate. The UE rate is well above 11% if rational numbers are used. Underemployed is in excess of 19%. This administration, like all liberals, are serial and compulsive liars. You have to be a liar to promulgate such a ridiculous ideology.

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:14 PM

I’m not sure that the difference between the two points is significant enough for that to work, though, since even a 150K result will look stagnant and breed pessimism about summer growth.

I agree, but I can’t help wonder if they think people only read the headline and the first twisted sentences of these stories, many of which are incomprehensible lately.

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 4:16 PM

Here’s an interesting question – what are those millions of people who have “given up looking for work” living on? Many have now filed for disability. (the “new” entitlement payment for the lazy!) Try to understand the mentality of an administration that rewards itself with lower unemployment rates while millions of Americans are so distraught that they have completely given up looking for work.

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:18 PM

Allow me to revise and extend my earlier predictions:

Non-farm jobs +68K
Private-sector jobs +80K
U-3 unemployment 8.0%
Labor force-participation rate – 63.3% (-0.3 points)

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 4:20 PM

This article is about the left trying to define the “new normal”. A majority of Americans sucking from the government teet and a true unemployment rate that remains in excess of 10%.

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Steve predicted 98k Yesterday, I went with 110k.

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 3:51 PM

Thanks. I remembered mentally arguing with the number, but then I couldn’t remember the number. :)

That little “and potentially back in the red” bit is freaking me out a little. Getting an election over with is one thing; suddenly noticing you are slowing down and can’t hear your engine anymore is something else.

Axe on May 31, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Agree with Steve Eggleston – this administration understands that the vast majority of the electorate doesn’t understand the Labor Participation Rate and its effect on the U3. They will lower the LPR as much as needed to lower the U3 to below 8% before the election. True Americans need to wake up and realize that they are dealing with leftists who are seeking to “fundamentally transform” this country into a totalitarian state.

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Here’s an interesting question – what are those millions of people who have “given up looking for work” living on? Many have now filed for disability. (the “new” entitlement payment for the lazy!) Try to understand the mentality of an administration that rewards itself with lower unemployment rates while millions of Americans are so distraught that they have completely given up looking for work.

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:18 PM

I’m sure some are on DI (after all, it’s collapsing far faster than earlier predicted). The over-62 crowd took Social Security early. Those under 26 35 are living with their parents. Some have significant others still working.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Nope !
It would be a ready made ad for Romney.
Remember “Recovery Summer” of 2010 and 2011 ?
Third time would be strike three. No way he sets himself up for that.
Then again, maybe he will.

Jabberwock on May 31, 2012 at 4:05 PM

..plus there are maybe three more jobs reports coming out and only the first two count — tomorrow’s and September’s (for 3Q 2012). Someone clue MOLester in upthread that it’s almost too late for his hero to do anything to affect the momentum and trajectory of the economy.

Plus (to hammer on this again) no one will be hiring under such uncertain conditions with a debt ceiling fight, Taxmageddon, and the effect of the remnants of un-repealed Obamacare looming for the first of 2013. (Not to mention, of course, the prospect of having a new POTUS and new congress in 2013.)

Naw, mate, The Pantload is stuck with selling the goods he has already manufactured.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 4:28 PM

It’s really gonna look like crap once the HP layoffs start.

Ward Cleaver on May 31, 2012 at 4:28 PM

60,000 & 7.7%

Manipulated so they will improve every month as the election nears.

tomg51 on May 31, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Axe on May 31, 2012 at 3:47 PM

You rang? I did revise and extend yesterday’s predictions (after all, they’re just predictions :-)

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 4:33 PM

Why not simply lower the LPR to whatever is necessary to bring UE down to 5%

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:35 PM

It certainly feels like the economy has the malignant dwindles. But can someone ‘splain to me why gasoline here (New England) has slowly backed down from $3.99 into the $3.83 range over the last few weeks?

bofh on May 31, 2012 at 4:39 PM

they will play the “pump and revise’ game again.

O-Bo, it’s the 4th quarter baby. You need to pull some jobs out you a$$ or you’ll be back in Chi-town community orgainzin’ faster than you can say tony rezko

DrW on May 31, 2012 at 4:40 PM

Hey, who’s up for more stimulus? Zero is.

Philly on May 31, 2012 at 4:45 PM

Saved or created.

portlandon on May 31, 2012 at 4:45 PM

It certainly feels like the economy has the malignant dwindles. But can someone ‘splain to me why gasoline here (New England) has slowly backed down from $3.99 into the $3.83 range over the last few weeks?

bofh on May 31, 2012 at 4:39 PM

Economy is weak and demand is down.

Philly on May 31, 2012 at 4:46 PM

You rang? I did revise and extend yesterday’s predictions (after all, they’re just predictions :-)

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 4:33 PM

:) No gotchas going on or anything. Your 8% is just bugging me. But I’m not good at these numbers at all. Twill be what twill be.

Charlotte’s taken the numbers down.

Or Pam has. She’ll give them to Charlotte.

Axe on May 31, 2012 at 4:47 PM

247,000 …to be revised ‘unexpectedly’ downward next week to about 18.

a5minmajor on May 31, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Job numbers in the Age of Obama are very complex, mathematically speaking. My guess is:

x = 5000(17 + 73i)

malclave on May 31, 2012 at 4:54 PM

It certainly feels like the economy has the malignant dwindles. But can someone ‘splain to me why gasoline here (New England) has slowly backed down from $3.99 into the $3.83 range over the last few weeks?

bofh on May 31, 2012 at 4:39 PM

The price of oil has dropped recently, thanks to weak demand from the weak (global) economy.

Things are bad in Europe and they’re about to get worse there. We don’t know for sure what is going on in China’s economy, but indications are that they are facing significant trouble too. Batten down the hatches, wherever you are. It’s going to be rough sailing ahead.

AZCoyote on May 31, 2012 at 5:00 PM

Political chatter aside, people are very concerned about the economic conditions a lack of recovery and no real, bold, tangible plans about what the President is going to do to change things.

I believe Mr. Obama does himself a complete disservice by delving into these nonsensical personal issues or foisting up alleged “firsts” such as support for “gay marriage”. That just further reminds folks he has done zero over the past several years that was bold, different or truly consequential to their lives. In fact, I really don’t see how he recovers- even if he starts now. It could happen I suppose. But I just don’t see it.

Can anybody honestly name one economic plan that made a difference? I can’t.

If Romney keeps driving the failure point and lack of accomplishments side by side with his ideas, which resemble bold American-Capitalist ideas familiar to the electorate – he wins.

By contrasting Obama’s unfamiliar approach- call it anti-capitalist, big-government, European-Socialist- whatever next to proven ideas that have worked in the past, folks will get it. They are beginning to link Romney’s personal success to his capabilities and theorizing what type of President he will be.

…And it’s not an evil capitalist. He’s that guy we all use to aspire to be before this latest presidency.

Marcus Traianus on May 31, 2012 at 5:02 PM

:) No gotchas going on or anything. Your 8% is just bugging me. But I’m not good at these numbers at all. Twill be what twill be.

Charlotte’s taken the numbers down.

Or Pam has. She’ll give them to Charlotte.

Axe on May 31, 2012 at 4:47 PM

It bugs me too, but it is entirely possible. I know somewhere around 150,000 lost their 99-week unemployment checks in early April due to the “improving” U-3 situation. They’re either employed or, more likely, haven’t looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to mid-May and thus are no longer part of the labor force. If it is the latter, and the 169,000 CPS drop in the number of employed and 180,000 increase in the population from March to April are duplicated, we’ll have 8.0% U-3 unemployment and 63.4% labor-force participation rate.

I can play with the numbers some more to get to my 8.0%/63.3% prediction, but I’d be too depressed.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 5:04 PM

..plus there are maybe three more jobs reports coming out and only the first two count — tomorrow’s and September’s (for 3Q 2012). Someone clue MOLester in upthread that it’s almost too late for his hero to do anything to affect the momentum and trajectory of the economy.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 4:28 PM

..who is this idiot, anyway. Hey, doofus, it’s a MONTHLY jobs report. There’s three of them left BEFORE September when people start paying attention to the Preezy election.

What a dingus!

I stand by my analysis of the momentum and trajectory, however.

In the mean time, I am seeking help.

The War Planner on May 31, 2012 at 5:05 PM

As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.

lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 3:25 PM

I saved the auto industry.

- Mitt

lester on May 31, 2012 at 5:09 PM

Barack Obama once overcooked a Hot Pocket and said “F#$%@& BUSH”!

Greek Fire on May 31, 2012 at 5:24 PM

Job numbers in the Age of Obama are very complex, mathematically speaking. My guess is:

x = 5000(17 + 73i)

malclave on May 31, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Heh. I see what you did there.

nukemhill on May 31, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Hooray for another Summer of Recovery, brought to us by the good folks in the West Wing.

And BTW, just heard today that the 1st Quarter GDP was revised

wait for it

downwards from 2.2% to 1.9%.

MJBrutus on May 31, 2012 at 5:51 PM

And didn’t most universities just have their commencement ceremonies for graduating seniors? 100,000 jobs available to hundreds of thousands of graduates. What would that be – one in three, five, ten graduates can find a job? Makes you wonder why you made the original investment to start with.

djaymick on May 31, 2012 at 5:53 PM

….By contrasting Obama’s unfamiliar approach- call it anti-capitalist, big-government, European-Socialist- whatever next to proven ideas that have worked in the past, folks will get it. ….Marcus Traianus on May 31, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Mussolini called in Corporatism

iurockhead on May 31, 2012 at 5:53 PM

Can anybody honestly name one economic plan that made a difference? I can’t.

Marcus Traianus on May 31, 2012 at 5:02 PM

Of course I can. ObamaCare, Dodd-Frank, Porkulus, spending at 24% of GDP have all made a difference. A disastrous difference.

MJBrutus on May 31, 2012 at 5:54 PM

Laser like focus on jobs.

nazo311 on May 31, 2012 at 6:10 PM

Here’s an interesting question – what are those millions of people who have “given up looking for work” living on? Many have now filed for disability. (the “new” entitlement payment for the lazy!) Try to understand the mentality of an administration that rewards itself with lower unemployment rates while millions of Americans are so distraught that they have completely given up looking for work.

MDLibertyLover on May 31, 2012 at 4:18 PM

DI, foodstamps, welfare, soup kitchens, and alpo. The homeless rate has jumped and food pantries are seeing people asking for food that used to donate.

And there are Obamavilles…

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 6:11 PM

Job numbers in the Age of Obama are very complex, mathematically speaking. My guess is:

x = 5000(17 + 73i)

malclave on May 31, 2012 at 4:54 PM

Heh. I see what you did there.

nukemhill on May 31, 2012 at 5:51 PM

Yeah, I was afraid just calling them complex numbers “mathematically speaking” might be too subtle, so I added the equation. :)

malclave on May 31, 2012 at 6:19 PM

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