ADP report predicts May private-sector jobs growth at 133K, weekly jobless claims jump 10K

posted at 8:41 am on May 31, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest official jobs figures, one of the most closely-watched economic indicators from the federal government.  One predictive indicator of the direction that report will take is the monthly analysis from payroll-processing giant ADP, which uses its clients as a sample to predict job non-government growth.  Today’s report hints at continued mediocrity — at best:

Employment in the U.S. nonfarm private business sector increased by 133,000 from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis. The estimated gain from March to April was revised down modestly, from the initial estimate of 119,000 to a revised estimate of 113,000.

Employment in the private, service-providing sector increased 132,000 in May, after rising a revised 119,000 in April. Employment in the private, goods-producing sector increased 1,000 in May. Manufacturing employment dropped 2,000 jobs, the second consecutive monthly decline.

Employment on large payrolls—those with 500 or more workers—increased 9,000 and employment on medium payrolls—those with 50 to 499 workers—rose 57,000 in May. Employment on small payrolls—those with up to 49 workers—rose 67,000 that same period. Of the 57,000 jobs created by medium-sized payrolls, 2,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 55,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.

Construction employment fell by 1,000 in May, its second consecutive decline following six monthly advances that likely were driven in part by unusually warm weather during the winter months.

That’s going to disappoint some analysts today, including those at CNBC:

Private-sector jobs growth came in at a disappointingly weak 133,000 from April to May, according to a report from ADP and Macroeconomic Advisors that adds to a bleak outlook for employment. …

Economists had expected the report to show nongovernment jobs grew by 150,000.

Usually (although not always), the ADP numbers overshoot the BLS estimation for job creation.  The BLS will also take into account the public sector, which has been shrinking steadily since the peak of 2010 in stimulus and Census spending.  Even if ADP makes a dead-on call in the private sector, we’re looking at something less than 133K in net job growth, which would barely keep pace with population growth.

However, that’s not the only indicator we have for tomorrow’s numbers.  According to another analysis from Wall Street, layoffs jumped 53% in May, which means that ADP’s figures are hopelessly optimistic:

Job cuts jumped by 53 percent in May from April in the United States, with Hewlett-Packard’s layoffs propelling the computer industry to the top spot among the biggest job cutters this year, a report by consultancy firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed on Thursday.

Employers announced plans to cut 61,887 staff from their payrolls in May, 67 percent more than in the same month of last year. The figure represents the most job cuts since last September.

The computer industry got the worst of it, but they weren’t the only sector to get hit hard:

Another area to watch is the food industry, where job cuts are up 75 percent this year and where Hostess Brands – markers of Twinkies and Wonder Bread – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, the report said.

Right on top of that, the Department of Labor reports a 10,000-claim jump in initial weekly jobless claims:

In the week ending May 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 373,000. The 4-week moving average was 374,500, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 370,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending May 19, unchanged from the prior week’s unrevised rate.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 19 was 3,242,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the preceding week’s revised level of 3,278,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,263,750, a decrease of 12,000 from the preceding week’s revised average of 3,275,750.

Note that last week’s numbers got revised upward for the 62nd time in 63 weeks, or the 63rd time in 64 weeks.  Honestly, I’ve lost count.  This still is in the same statistical ballpark as most of the rest of the year, but it just went in the wrong direction at the same time as a host of other negative indicators appeared.  That will leave a mark.

If we come in less than the population-growth expansion level in tomorrow’s numbers, the Obama administration may need to start hitting the panic button.  They cannot go through another Wreckovery Summer and hope to win re-election — and for all practical purposes, voters will shortly start locking in their final impressions of the economy and its direction this summer.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Tomorrow, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the latest official jobs figures

That’s a surprise. I was expecting we’d get it next week since for some reason I thought they didn’t release until after the 1st of the month. Anyway, 133,000 would be right on par with March and April which means it ain’t a minor blip anymore. It’s the new normal.

Doughboy on May 31, 2012 at 8:45 AM

OK all you independents and fence-sitters. What else do you need to know?

Trafalgar on May 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Unemployment 8.5%, even this admin cannot fudge the numbers any harder than that.

The Precedent is going down in flames

Skwor on May 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

2,000 jobs were created by the goods-producing sector and 55,000 jobs were created by the service-providing sector.

“Would you like the Recovery Meal Deal, or just the Crap Sandwich?”

forest on May 31, 2012 at 8:47 AM

Hostess Brands – markers of Twinkies and Wonder Bread – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, the report said.

Nevermind the jobs report, we need a twinkie bailout STAT!

Happy Nomad on May 31, 2012 at 8:47 AM

where Hostess Brands – markers of Twinkies and Wonder Bread – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection

To paraphrase the Gipper …

“A recession is when your neighbor looses his job. A depression is when people stop buying twinkies …”

Lost in Jersey on May 31, 2012 at 8:48 AM

FORWARD!!!!

BigWyo on May 31, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Kick the Obama campaign down the stairs and every Democrat for added measure. Don’t spend ten cents on anything non-essential to your life until Halloween, the point at which any favorable economic data can no longer save him.

Once this Empty Suit is defeated, we can have the greatest holiday season of our lives. Delay or forego expenditures.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:49 AM

More Choom Flume for Hostess.

forest on May 31, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Don’t spend ten cents on anything non-essential to your life until Halloween,

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:49 AM

Except I am planning on an expensive champagne purchase on Novemeber 5th, so it will be well chilled on November 6th!

Trafalgar on May 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Lots of high school and college graduates just entered the job market, too.

MidniteRambler on May 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

“Sometimes I forget we’re in a recession.” – Barack Obama

I notice he doesn’t forget his tee times or his fundraisers, so at least we have that going for us.

NoDonkey on May 31, 2012 at 8:52 AM

Kick the Obama campaign down the stairs and every Democrat for added measure. Don’t spend ten cents on anything non-essential to your life until Halloween, the point at which any favorable economic data can no longer save him.

Once this Empty Suit is defeated, we can have the greatest holiday season of our lives. Delay or forego expenditures.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:49 AM

You’re suggesting manipulating the economy, making our nation seem worse off than it actually is, all for the sake of political gain? I’m in.

Mr. Prodigy on May 31, 2012 at 8:54 AM

That’s a surprise. I was expecting we’d get it next week since for some reason I thought they didn’t release until after the 1st of the month. Anyway, 133,000 would be right on par with March and April which means it ain’t a minor blip anymore. It’s the new normal.

Doughboy on May 31, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Usually it’s the first Friday of the month. Who’s running the pool on that – put me down for 98K jobs added (after all, in Wisconsin, they’re seemingly only polling those establishments that have filed mass-layoff notices).

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Unemployment 8.5%, even this admin cannot fudge the numbers any harder than that.

The Precedent is going down in flames

Skwor

8.5% IS the fudged number.

Zaggs on May 31, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Julia was spotted talking on a cell phone in the unemployment line.

Electrongod on May 31, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Unemployment 8.5%, even this admin cannot fudge the numbers any harder than that.

The Precedent is going down in flames

Skwor on May 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

Don’t be too sure. By the time we get to June’s numbers, a half-million people will have been cut off the 99-week funemployment checks for at least 4 weeks and thus no longer part of the workforce.

I’m saying U-3 will be 8.0 %.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 8:56 AM

The Precedent is going down in flames

Skwor on May 31, 2012 at 8:46 AM

as a Polish-American, that just warms my heart.

GhoulAid on May 31, 2012 at 8:56 AM

Any Republican president would have been hounded from office and run out of town by the MSM with this sustained economic disaster.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Except I am planning on an expensive champagne purchase on Novemeber 5th, so it will be well chilled on November 6th!

Trafalgar on May 31, 2012 at 8:51 AM

I recommend getting the champagne on Sunday; you don’t want to have to shock-chill it.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM

With Obama and the `Rat’s Taxmageddon creation on the horizon should it be a surprise to ANYONE that the economy is plunging back into deep recession?

The only way to fix that would be to make the current tax rates permanent. This is something Obama is determined to NEVER do. I think he expected to sail to re-election and use his “flexibility” to not do anything about the huge tax increase come January.

wildcat72 on May 31, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Blah blah blah…made up numbers…blah blah blah…get obama re-elected…blah blah blah

msupertas on May 31, 2012 at 8:59 AM

I believe the economy needs to add 400,000+ new jobs per month just to keep up with population growth.

Of course, a bunch of people just stopped receiving unemployment benefits, and many more are no longer looking for work, so the chocolate ration will be raised from 4 grams to 3.8 grams the official unemployment rate will drop.

Hope And Change!

MidniteRambler on May 31, 2012 at 8:59 AM

Unemployment 8.5%, even this admin cannot fudge the numbers any harder than that.

The Precedent is going down in flames

Skwor

8.5% IS the fudged number.

Zaggs on May 31, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Yep, the real number is about twice that.

wildcat72 on May 31, 2012 at 8:59 AM

A friend of ours got their new insurance bill last week. These folks aren’t well-off, and now they’re going to pay more for health insurance thanks to Obaminationcare.

My wife told my M-I-L that, and the MIL said that it was just the company he works for, and it would never happen to her.

The next day she got the notice of her health insurance cost increase.

There’s a lot of pissed off people out there right now, who just got their Obamacare adjustment to their paycheck.

Nethicus on May 31, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Radio just mentioned the gdp was downgraded to1.9

cmsinaz on May 31, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Once Obama apologizes to the Poles…
He can do an about face…
And apologize to the USA.

Hope and change…

Electrongod on May 31, 2012 at 9:03 AM

Radio just mentioned the gdp was downgraded to1.9

cmsinaz on May 31, 2012 at 9:02 AM

MSNBC will report that it was upgraded to 1.9.
No one will notice…

Electrongod on May 31, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Confiscating more private property ($) from those evil, hateful, racist, bigoted, misogynist, homophobic, racist, 1%er, racist millionaires and billionaires would solve the problem. It’s time they pay their Fair Share!

But that’s only part of the solution. Even though we have the highest corporate tax rate in the world the evil, racist corporations still are not paying their Fair Share. It must be raised in order for us to increase Social Justice!

visions on May 31, 2012 at 9:04 AM

NYC wants to ban the size of the soda you can buy at a theatre, baseball game..etc.

Why not they already banned Happy Hour right?

It just never ends!

… who’s ready for some Glenn Beck??

LevinFan on May 31, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Any Republican president would have been hounded from office and run out of town by the MSM with this sustained economic disaster.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM

Without question.

visions on May 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM

What Americans see

Choom and Gloom.
waterytart on May 30, 2012 at 9:03 AM

What the media will say

Can’t change unicorns in mid-choom
forest on May 30, 2012 at 9:09 AM

txhsmom on May 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM

A friend of ours got their new insurance bill last week. These folks aren’t well-off, and now they’re going to pay more for health insurance thanks to Obaminationcare.

My wife told my M-I-L that, and the MIL said that it was just the company he works for, and it would never happen to her.

The next day she got the notice of her health insurance cost increase.

There’s a lot of pissed off people out there right now, who just got their Obamacare adjustment to their paycheck.

Nethicus on May 31, 2012 at 9:00 AM

Sounds like a great idea for a letter to the editor. Make that a main point and add a bunch of the negatives about Obamacare.

LevinFan on May 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Radio just mentioned the gdp was downgraded to1.9

cmsinaz on May 31, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Patience. Ed’s got another post in the pipeline on that.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:06 AM

Everyone just relax and roll one. The leader of the Choom Gang got this one, yo.

Sugar Land on May 31, 2012 at 9:08 AM

And now we’ll never have a chance to learn how a President Roemer would have fixed things.

Buddy Roemer quits 2012 race

Flora Duh on May 31, 2012 at 9:10 AM

And now we’ll never have a chance to learn how a President Roemer would have fixed things.

Buddy Roemer quits 2012 race

Flora Duh on May 31, 2012 at 9:10 AM

Jazz Shaw hardest hit.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:11 AM

As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.
 
lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 9:12 AM

As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.

lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 9:12 AM

lester is always good for a laugh :)

Electrongod on May 31, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Heh EG :)

Thanks Steve :)

cmsinaz on May 31, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Not sure if it’s 62/63 or 63/64 either, but it’s 48 weeks in a row.
http://www.chrisofrights.com/2012/04/jobless-claims.html

UE tomorrow will be 8%. Possibly 8.1%. I have a spreadsheet somewhere guesstimating UE rates for election day based upon job growth numbers, labor force participation numbers. I’ll have to dig it out, but IIRC, could be as low as 7.7% on election day even with less than 150k jobs added per month. I think that assumed another 2% drop in participation rate, which was consistent with last six months.

Chris of Rights on May 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

Hold on now, TFGP’s campaign person recently said that the “Green Sector” has created 250,000 jobs, were those positions counted?

I smell a racist rat here.

Bishop on May 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

This has got to be War Criminal Dick Cheney’s Fault.

lowereastside

Del Dolemonte on May 31, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Not sure if it’s 62/63 or 63/64 either, but it’s 48 weeks in a row.
http://www.chrisofrights.com/2012/04/jobless-claims.html

UE tomorrow will be 8%. Possibly 8.1%. I have a spreadsheet somewhere guesstimating UE rates for election day based upon job growth numbers, labor force participation numbers. I’ll have to dig it out, but IIRC, could be as low as 7.7% on election day even with less than 150k jobs added per month. I think that assumed another 2% drop in participation rate, which was consistent with last six months.

Chris of Rights on May 31, 2012 at 9:17 AM

I want to say the upward revisions have been 64 of the last 65 weeks.

Are you factoring in the rolling end of the extended unemployment benefits? That alone, assuming the jobs don’t exceed population growth, would likely result in a 0.2-0.3 percentage point drop in the U-3 unemloyment as they stop looking for work as a condition of receiving unemployment checks.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

If you simply stop counting unemployed people the rate would drop to 0%.

“Axel, get on that!”
-TFGP

Bishop on May 31, 2012 at 9:22 AM

The Obama campaign will soon be reaching out to Scottie W to inquire how he managed to create 30k jobs a week before his recall election and 0 jobs prior to that.

Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Any Republican white president would have been hounded from office and run out of town by the MSM with this sustained economic disaster.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM

FIFY

Tim Zank on May 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

If you simply stop counting unemployed people the rate would drop to 0%.

“Axel, get on that!”
-TFGP

Bishop on May 31, 2012 at 9:22 AM

Pretty much what they’re doing.

Seriously, the regular state continuing claims are little changed from last year. It’s the extended benefits where the numbers are dropping, and it’s not exactly because they’re finding work.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:25 AM

The Obama campaign will soon be reaching out to Scottie W to inquire how he managed to create 30k jobs a week before his recall election and 0 jobs prior to that.

Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

When you can’t defend – deflect.

Flora Duh on May 31, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Any Republican white president would have been hounded from office and run out of town by the MSM with this sustained economic disaster.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM

FIFY

Tim Zank on May 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM

Were you around for the first round of stagflation? The press wasn’t exactly hounding Jimmy Carter out of the White House.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:27 AM

The Obama campaign will soon be reaching out to Scottie W to inquire how he managed to create 30k jobs a week before his recall election and 0 jobs prior to that.

Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Walker has created more jobs than Maobama could ever dream of.

Plus Walker has finally reformed the ridiculous collective bargaining for public unions. Why should taxpayers have to fund the insane benefits of public employees??

LevinFan on May 31, 2012 at 9:27 AM

That’s going to disappoint some analysts today, including those at CNBC:

Liesman was putting a positive spin on the data.

Wigglesworth on May 31, 2012 at 9:28 AM

The Obama campaign will soon be reaching out to Scottie W to inquire how he managed to create 30k jobs a week before his recall election and 0 jobs prior to that.

Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Your post is reminding me of the opening scene from “Jaws”, the poor woman flailing and screaming as she realizes she’s doomed, her last thought “Maybe this was a bad idea.”

Bishop on May 31, 2012 at 9:29 AM

MSNBC will report that it was upgraded to 1.9.
No one will notice…

Electrongod on May 31, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Yep, and the chocolate ration was increased from 3ozs per week to 2.5ozs per week too. Say, brother, got any razor blades? I’ll trade you some Victory gin.

Oldnuke on May 31, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I can already visualize Mitt during the debates: “Mister President, you apologized to the world for America. Do you plan to apologize to millions of unemployed Americans for what they had to endure during your term?”

Archivarix on May 31, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Uppereastside

Yeah, dont these wingnuts know you have to burden a state to make it work!?

tom daschle concerned on May 31, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Are you factoring in the rolling end of the extended unemployment benefits? That alone, assuming the jobs don’t exceed population growth, would likely result in a 0.2-0.3 percentage point drop in the U-3 unemloyment as they stop looking for work as a condition of receiving unemployment checks.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:21 AM

I didn’t really factor in anything, per se. I just plugged in expected population growth, and then ran UE numbers with jobs add/mo at various levels between 150k and 10k, and participation rate between 63.6% and 63%.

Found the spreadsheet. It’s 8.7% at 10k/mo with 63.6% rate, and all the way down to 7.4% at 150k/mo with 63% rate.

However, I do expect participation rate to continue to fall, in part because of what you said, and in part because that’s been the trend, anyway. It wouldn’t surprise me if it dropped lower than 63% by 11/6.

Chris of Rights on May 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Four More Years till Recovery Summer

J_Crater on May 31, 2012 at 9:33 AM

An avalanche of bad employment news for the Øbama administration and Bush 43 back in the White House on the same day must mean that some kind of karma is being imposed on Teh Won. I wonder if Ø has the good sense to recognize this?

ExpressoBold on May 31, 2012 at 9:34 AM

The Obama campaign will soon be reaching out to Scottie W to inquire how he managed to create 30k jobs a week before his recall election and 0 jobs prior to that.

Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Remind me to get back to you on June 28 on that, when all the states’ 4Q2011 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages numbers are released. Unfortunately for you and Obama, if the 3Q2011 trend is any indication, the national gain by using the QCEW won’t be nearly as dramatic as it was in Wisconsin.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

No bump from summer hires.
No bump from May graduate hires. And the labor force increased after that.

Wunnerful, wunnerful.

Yeah, Forward, from Home and Change. Actually, Obama’s campaign slogan is Downward, with Handbaskets for All!

ProfShadow on May 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

If the Republicans were cynical, they should offer to extend for another few weeks unemployment benefits.
This, of course, will bloat the rolls with unemployed participants, which will cause the unemployment rate to rise.

J_Crater on May 31, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Oh, as an aside, it looks like to me that if labor force participation rate drops to 63.2% or below, there will be 90,000,000 “not in the labor force” on election day.

Chris of Rights on May 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

What a great time for all these newly unemployed to start a new hobby, catch up on their reading, maybe spend some time simply enjoying nature by taking a walk or laying on their back and watching the clouds.

Bishop on May 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

As Obama’s policies prove more and more successful expect GOP to try to claim ownership of them.

lester on May 8, 2012 at 8:49 PM
rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 9:12 AM

…Choom choom too!

KOOLAID2 on May 31, 2012 at 9:39 AM

The BLS is now a tool of this corrupt administration. The number will be unchanged at 8.1% with 88k jobs created which is so phony its laughable. And the media will trumpet the continuing steady recovery of the economy.

crazywater on May 31, 2012 at 9:42 AM

If Mitt could get Bain to fix Hostess, would that cement his election?

Greyledge Gal on May 31, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Oh, as an aside, it looks like to me that if labor force participation rate drops to 63.2% or below, there will be 90,000,000 “not in the labor force” on election day.

Chris of Rights on May 31, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Hope, change, record number of shiftless (yes, I know that number also includes the gainfully retired, but that doesn’t begin to cover the total number).

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:45 AM

The 99 weeks extensions now seems fashioned to lower the rate just before the election. How very farsighted and cynical our Democrat over lords were and are. I despise them. No wonder Nancy thought it would stimulate the economy… it’s all about the fake numbers game.

Hmmmmmm. Manipulating numbers is an art for Democrats.

petunia on May 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

In the week ending May 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week’s revised figure of 373,000.

That’s 3x the normal upgrade.

I want Barry out because he knows what it will take to turn things around, but refuses to do it. I used to think this was due to powers he was beholden to, but after giving a Medal of Freedom to an admitted socialist, five months from election time, it’s arrogance wrapped in belligerence.

budfox on May 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

The Obama campaign will soon be reaching out to Scottie W to inquire how he managed to create 30k jobs a week before his recall election and 0 jobs prior to that.
 
Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

 
It’s always weird to see someone accidentally admit something.
 
It’s weirder still when you realize that it won’t trump ideology.

rogerb on May 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

It’s clearly Bush’s fault.

Obama has focused on the economy with laser-like precision for 3.5 years by giving speeches denouncing the rich and ballooning the deficit with non-sensical spending. It is clearly not his fault.

milcus on May 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

The figures were “disappointing” but were they “unexpected”?

krome on May 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Uppereastside on May 31, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Jonestown has an ‘Uppereastside’?

I did not know that.

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on May 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

Observations from the Employment-Population Ratio

The 1-2 punch of the Dot Com Bust and the 9/11 attacks put the economy in recession and caused employment to decline.

The second part of the “Bush Tax Cuts” were signed May 28, 2003,

The low point of the Bush Republican majority years was 62.0 in September 2003.

From that point until the transition of majority power from Republican to Democrat in January 2007, employment grew.

Conclusion: the Bush Tax Cuts turned the economy around and improved employment.

Under the Democratic majority (Pelosi House and Reid Senate), the ratio fell back below the Republican majority low point (i.e., fell below 62.0) in September 2008 and has never regained that level.

Under the Democratic majority, the ratio has hit a low of 58.2 on several occasions: Dec 2009, Nov 2010, June and July 2011, and it has not been above 58.7 since August 2009…

When the May numbers are released, we will have gone 45 straight months below the Republican majority low point (i.e., below 62.0), and 33 straight months below 59.0.

It’s time for a NEW DIRECTION.

It’s time for a CHANGE.

(The capitalized words represent the Democrat slogans from the 2006 and 2008 elections, respectively.)

ITguy on May 31, 2012 at 9:57 AM

The 99 weeks extensions now seems fashioned to lower the rate just before the election. How very farsighted and cynical our Democrat over lords were and are.

Rush is right to say this is going to cause a Boomerang effect.

Team Barry thought employment numbers, while not awesome, would at least be in the 200K range.

If you pushed 99′ers off in that environment, they could find part-time jobs, but not in their field. That was the goal. Force them into other lines of work.

But now, they’re pushing 99′ers into the abyss and ballooning disability.

If you’ve ever read the requirements of disability, you’re effectively making yourself a ward of the state unless you possess a will of iron. Sadly, most of these people don’t.

So states with people who can work are terrified of losing the disability safety net by violating its rules.

That leads to eventual mass fraud investigations, which is going to create localized Greek-style eruptions in every state.

Team Barry somehow has to aim the bullseye on the back of the GOP Congress by blaming their demands in cuts. But how you square that circle with “shovel ready” and “green” subsidies is beyond me. All Mitt has to ask, is if Barry knew people were going to be in long-term unemployment, why throw resources at fantasies?

budfox on May 31, 2012 at 10:01 AM

The 99 weeks extensions now seems fashioned to lower the rate just before the election. How very farsighted and cynical our Democrat over lords were and are. I despise them. No wonder Nancy thought it would stimulate the economy… it’s all about the fake numbers game.

Hmmmmmm. Manipulating numbers is an art for Democrats.

petunia on May 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

And here I thought AP and I were the cynical ones here ;-)

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 10:01 AM

Hostess Brands – markers of Twinkies and Wonder Bread – filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, the report said.

The Mayans predicted what the end of Twinkies would mean for the world by this December. /

WhatNot on May 31, 2012 at 10:03 AM

The figures were “disappointing” but were they “unexpected”?

krome on May 31, 2012 at 9:54 AM

They’re saving that for tomorrow.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 10:04 AM

it’s all about the fake numbers game… Manipulating numbers is an art for Democrats.

petunia on May 31, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Indeed. Just ask Rex Nutting.

ITguy on May 31, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Rex Nutting
May 22, 2012, 12:00 a.m. EDT

Obama spending binge never happened
Commentary: Government outlays rising at slowest pace since 1950s

The spending numbers per Fiscal Year were accurate, but Rex’s claims (which were echoed by Obama himself!) were based on blaming Bush for FY 2009 spending that was passed by the Nancy Pelosi House, Harry Reid Senate, and signed by Obama, not Bush!

Things like:

The Omnibus Appropriations Act for FY 2009,
signed by President Obama on March 11, 2009.

And:

The Supplemental Appropriations Act of 2009 (which included “Cash for Clunkers”),
signed by President Obama on June 24, 2009.

Rex Nutting and Barack Obama want to “Blame BUSH!!!” for all of that.

And now, Rex has been caught deleting comments that reveal the truth about Government outlays during the Obama administration:

From FY 2009 to 2012, the Obama administration has spent an AVERAGE of 24.4% of the GDP each and every year, and that is UNPRECEDENTED since the end of World War II.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2013/assets/hist01z2.xls

Table 1.2—SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS, AND SURPLUSES OR DEFICITS (–) AS PERCENTAGES OF GDP: 1930–2017

Use Excel to Average the numbers and find that post-WWII,

Average Total Outlays, as a % of GDP, across FY 1947-2012:
19.8%

Average Total Outlays, as a % of GDP, over the six years of Bush with a Republican Congress (FY 2002-2007):
19.7%

So, spending by Bush and the Republican Congress was actually BELOW AVERAGE.

Once Pelosi, Reid, Obama, Biden, Hillary Clinton, and the rest of the Democratic Socialists took majority control of the budgeting and spending process, spending skyrocketed to the highest that it has been since World War II…

Average Total Outlays, as a % of GDP, over the six years of Bush with a Republican Congress (FY 2002-2007):
19.7%

Total Outlays, as a % of GDP, of Bush with a Democrat Congress (FY 2008 only, as the Pelosi-Reid Congress held off on the budget until Obama was sworn in):
20.8%

Average Total Outlays, as a % of GDP, over the four years of Obama with a Democrat majority (FY 2009-2012):
24.4%

That’s a fact, and both Rex Nutting and Obama can’t handle the truth.

ITguy on May 31, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Disappointing numbers this morning. The 4-week average on first time claims remains stuck between 370-375K, and it appears that the slowdown in the 1Q GDP was worse than feared. The ADP report indicated that hiring remains sluggish, but the service sector was the one bright spot. The lackluster growth in manufacturing jobs may be a direct result of the worldwide slowdown, but we have noticed another trend that has developed over the past few years: Businesses are only releasing budgets on a 6-month or even quarterly basis. So we saw a ramp up in hiring early in the year as 1H12 budgets were released, and then a freeze as everyone waits for 2H12 budgets to be finalized.

Right now the problem is visibility, with concerns growing about Europe and (on the horizon) fiscal policy changes later this year. Everyone is holding their breath at the moment, waiting to see how the European situation will sort out. We are now expecting +120-100K job growth in the employment report tomorrow. Markets are down in the flight to safety, but it may be time to start getting more bullish.

TouchdownBuddha on May 31, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Julia was spotted talking on a cell phone in the unemployment line.

Electrongod on May 31, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Obama: “But don’t worry, my little government-worshipping minions… it was a taxpayer-funded, government-provided ‘free’ phone!”

dominigan on May 31, 2012 at 10:22 AM

Intuit also reported yesterday that they are expecting the unemployment numbers to be poor.

Yep, the real number is about twice that.

wildcat72 on May 31, 2012 at 8:59 AM

How about three times. Check out shadowstats.com

Usually it’s the first Friday of the month. Who’s running the pool on that – put me down for 98K jobs added (after all, in Wisconsin, they’re seemingly only polling those establishments that have filed mass-layoff notices).

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 8:54 AM

Put me down for 110k.

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 10:29 AM

I wonder when the poor performance of companies is going to be labeled as a devious plot to unseat The Won?

Cindy Munford on May 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

So the “First time unemployment filings fell last week” headlines that were pre-written by news agencies all over the country will have to be scrapped for the “First time unemployment filings nearly unchanged” headlines will have to be used instead.

At least we were under the magical 383,001 number that indicates the threshold for steady job growth.

Don’t worry folks, all this means is that we just need a third term for Obama to fix this mess left by Herbert Hoo… I mean, GWB.

BKeyser on May 31, 2012 at 10:33 AM

No kidding, Ed? Were you NOT warned pf the previous quarters indicators dubious reliability in your irrational exuberance last time ?

DevilsPrinciple on May 31, 2012 at 10:35 AM

Cindy Munford on May 31, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Yep. They’ve been gunning for him since the day he took office. Corporations are racist. And evil. ;)

BKeyser on May 31, 2012 at 10:35 AM

No kidding, Ed? Were you NOT warned of the previous quarters indicators dubious reliability in your irrational exuberance, last time ?

DevilsPrinciple on May 31, 2012 at 10:35 AM

DevilsPrinciple on May 31, 2012 at 10:36 AM

If I didn’t know better I would think that this 0bama fellow is totally inept and ignorant.

jukin3 on May 31, 2012 at 10:39 AM

The AP goes into some depth explaining this increase in unemployment claims, here.

BKeyser on May 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

Chart of the Day: Illinois Democrats Were Soooo Certain They Were Right And Scott Walker Was Wrong

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/05/chart-of-day-illinois-democrats-were.html

M2RB: Ronnie James Dio

The follies of the raise taxes, fees, and regulations clowns….

Resist We Much on May 31, 2012 at 11:35 AM

BKeyser on May 31, 2012 at 10:35 AM

It’s only a matter of time. Unless of course, they are donating to him.

Cindy Munford on May 31, 2012 at 11:57 AM

The AP goes into some depth explaining this increase in unemployment claims, here.

BKeyser on May 31, 2012 at 11:23 AM

I tipped Ed to that also. One sentence and the headline. I’ll bet the AP cheerleaders are crapping their pants. How can they spin this?

dogsoldier on May 31, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Any Republican white president would have been hounded from office and run out of town by the MSM with this sustained economic disaster.

matthew8787 on May 31, 2012 at 8:58 AM
FIFY

Tim Zank on May 31, 2012 at 9:24 AM
Were you around for the first round of stagflation? The press wasn’t exactly hounding Jimmy Carter out of the White House.

Steve Eggleston on May 31, 2012 at 9:27 AM

I was there and listening to the MSM then there was nothing to worry about. Even the polls had the peanut-shucker ahead of Reagan…November 2012 will be a redux of November 2010.

RedInMD on May 31, 2012 at 12:07 PM

BACK ON THE CHOOM GANG

Marcola on May 31, 2012 at 12:54 PM

A new push will be adopted just in time for the Sunday morning political shows. You will probably hear the usual rhetoric about Obama’s “jobs plan” or “new stimulus spending”. They will talk about the federal government not hiring people and how that is causing these issues.
Be ready for the spin because the media will never let anyone or anything damage The One.

djaymick on May 31, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Liberal Myths Versus Democratic Realities

http://predicthistunpredictpast.blogspot.com/2012/05/liberal-myths-versus-democratic.html

M2RB: Phish

Resist We Much on May 31, 2012 at 12:58 PM

Just like the J@ck@ss-In-Chief, WEAK!?!

Colatteral Damage on May 31, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Doesn’t matter what the reality is. They already know how to manipulate the numbers to say what they want. They’ll just remove millions more from the workforce and drop the monthly number (again) and claim victory.

There is nothing to stop them. Most people, and I mean the vast majority, have no idea they’re being lied to. Most wouldn’t believe it no matter how much evidence you put in front of them.

My prediction: The unemployment number drops below 8% in the next 2 months. The reasons for this drop won’t matter, they will simply insist this means the economy is roaring back and anyone who disagrees is racist and hates science.

This works for them every time they try it. They won’t stop.

runawayyyy on May 31, 2012 at 6:36 PM