New Marquette poll shows Walker leading Barrett 52/45

posted at 2:41 pm on May 30, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Marquette hasn’t posted the poll itself on its website yet, but they’ve been teasing the results on their Twitter feed since 12:15 CT.  Two weeks ago, the Marquette poll had Scott Walker up six in the Wisconsin recall election at 50/44.  Today’s poll shows a nearly identical result slightly more in favor of Walker over Tom Barrett, 52/45.  The Weekly Standard’s John McCormack sums up the takeaway from the top line:

Though the pollster notes that Walker’s margin over Barrett is “statistically unchanged,” it’s good news for Walker that he has now risen above 50 percent because if he can turn out and his current supporters, he’s going to win. In the historic Republican wave of 2010, Walker won with 52.3 percent of the vote.

A few more nuggets from the Marquette Twitter feed:

  • Kleefisch 46%, Mitchell 41% among likely voters in new Marquette Law School poll. [Lt. Governor recall race]
  • Perceptions on WI jobs have shifted to more people thinking we’ve gained jobs, compared to results 2 wks ago, MU Law Poll finds.
  • Walker at 51% favorable, 46% unfavorable general view, Barrett at 41% favorable, 46% unfavorable.

The biggest takeaway?  Marquette found that 92% of Republican voters polled are “absolutely certain” to vote on Tuesday.  Only 77% of Democrats said the same thing.  Even though this survey found a 4-point uptick in Democrats and Democrat-leaners, that enthusiasm number may be the most determinative key to the poll.  That and the favorability numbers suggest that Walker will win, and it might not be all that close, either.

In more bad news for Barrett, a University of Wisconsin union has refused to endorse him:

Opposition to curbing collective bargaining rights for public workers drove tens of thousands of demonstrators to the Capitol last year, but people on both sides of the recall election might not remember that now.

Democrats are making the issue less of a priority in their campaign messaging. Instead, they’re focusing on Gov. Scott Walker’s leadership style and budget cuts rather than offering a forthright defense of unionism and collective bargaining. This tack frustrates more than a few union supporters, but only one union is throwing down the gauntlet.

The UW’s Teaching Assistants’ Association (TAA) has declined to endorse Democratic challenger and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who faces Walker in the June 5 recall election. The TAA also withheld its support from Democratic primary candidate Kathleen Falk on the grounds that she wouldn’t commit to a firm stance against budget cuts and concessionary contract negotiations with state workers.

“Through his use of Act 10 against the workers in Milwaukee [Barrett] has shown that he is not deserving of support of unions in Wisconsin,” says Dan Suárez, a member of the TAA and a Ph.D. candidate in sociology at UW-Madison. Barrett made use of Walker’s collective bargaining restrictions in Act 10 to increase pension and health care contributions for workers employed by the city of Milwaukee. Barrett has said he took those steps to avoid layoffs of public workers.

Getting college students to turn out in a school recess was going to be a problem for Democrats anyway.  Looks like enthusiasm will be even lower than first expected on university campuses.  Nor is that Barrett’s only problem today, either.  In another post by John McCormack at TWS, Barrett came up empty when McCormack asked in a press conference today for a specific example of a school district hurt by Act 10:

TWS: On collective bargaining, mayor, the governor and his campaign have pointed to a number of… schools across the state that heave benefited from the reforms in Act 10. Which school districts have been hurt in particular, in your view, by Walker’s policies and his reforms? Are there any that stand out in your mind?

BARRETT: Well, I support the restoration of collective bargaining rights. And that’s what this is all about–whether you support workers’ rights. And I support workers rights.

TWS: But are there any school districts in particular, though, that have been hurt by Act 10?

BARRETT: I have talked to prison guards, I can tell you that, who are concerned about their own public safety because of the changes in the law, and I’m very concerned about that as well

TWS: But no school districts—

BARRETT: We can do an analysis and get back to you on that.

Er … the election is just six days away.  Barrett and his team have had a year or more to make that case, and he doesn’t know?   The egg on the face of Democrats after this election might take much longer than just five months to remove.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Alright, one thing is for certain.

People have made up the minds. There has been little movement up for Barret, and a tick or 2 up for Walker. This proves that pretty much is set in stone.

NOW with that said:
It will depend on turnout.

Also, people are not voting for Barret. They are voting because they dont like walker. You will see this in the pressy election too. I will be voting for Mittens ONLY because I know this county can not afford to have another 4 more years of the genius in office right now.

watertown on May 30, 2012 at 9:27 PM

You betcha!
If Walker wins, it will just reinforce the power corrupt money has in our politics. The man has negatively divided WI way more than any politician in our life time.
If Barrett wins, then it proves just how powerful the grassroots can get regardless of corrupt money.

Uppereastside on May 30, 2012 at 3:30 PM

Man you got your talking points down to the T!

Wanna talk about power and corruption? You… really want to go there really?

Then again, your making this claim… so prove it.
While your at it, point out where Barret has said how HE would have fixed things and got us to where we are now.

People here at HA… grab some popcorn… this is going to be fun watching this troll try to make a good argument. Ten bucks says they normal liberal talking points.

BTW upper…. FYI, if Barret wins, you can sure bet that WI will become a state wide black hole like Milwaukee. People and businesses will flee like no tomorrow. Companies like Ashley Furniture who just expanded and added 200 good jobs … and gave Walker credit…will give this state the middle finger. Then what? Your just gonna raise taxes right? Sorry, my bill has finally gone down and I LIKE IT.

watertown on May 30, 2012 at 9:36 PM

watertown on May 30, 2012 at 9:36 PM

A-MEN!

Steve Eggleston on May 30, 2012 at 10:00 PM

..this must be a dead-solid lock and the teas leaves must be predicting something absolutely dire for the Dems because Rience Priebus was on Greta last night saying the most boastful things. I mean, he was like a logical DWS (without the mayo-head hairdo) in full flood.

The War Planner on May 30, 2012 at 2:45 PM

This makes me nervous. I hope it is waaay over the top then.

wi farmgirl on May 30, 2012 at 10:06 PM

Don’t take a single vote for granted. Celebrate only when Walker wins, after Barrett has said his thank yous.

Schadenfreude on May 30, 2012 at 2:50 PM

Thank you, can’t say this enough…get out the vote.

wi farmgirl on May 30, 2012 at 10:21 PM

I can’t wait for this to be over and maybe just maybe people like you will shut up for at least a week.

sammypants on May 30, 2012 at 3:38 PM

Don’t hold your breath Sammy. This isn’t going away for a long time. They are just stymied that we finally have had enough and are fighting and actively working to keep who was elected in the Gov’s seat.

wi farmgirl on May 30, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Just heard on the news that city clerks are testing the voting machines, to make sure they are operating correctly. One wonders if in more democrat-heavy city departments if “operating correctly” means no matter who the person votes for, it automatically registers as a vote for Barrett.

By the way, I’d like to remind all the Wisconsin voters to remember to vote for Rebecca Kleefisch for Lt. Governor on Tuesday.
I keep seeing these ads on HA for Mahlon Mitchell, the black democratic stool pigeon the unions have to go up against Kleefisch. Probably so that if he loses then the left-wing media can say that we’re all racists. Where have we heard that before?!

If it is going to be tight for Walker(which I hope it isn’t), it is going to be an even tighter race for Lt. Gov.

Sterling Holobyte on May 31, 2012 at 12:51 AM

I hope the recall results, if not a runaway by Gov. Walker, are the same as the last election. The union supporters and lefties will see that their tantrum counted for nothing.

closetgop on May 31, 2012 at 1:06 PM

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