Oh my: Walker 54, Barrett 42 in Wisconsin

posted at 4:41 pm on May 24, 2012 by Allahpundit

This is from We Ask America, the same pollster that recently had Walker by nine, which was already the biggest margin of any recent recall poll. Now they’re topped it. The little Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering “outlier” — and yet, they’re using likely voters and an enormous sample, which means their margin of error is smaller than any of their competitors.

Is this happening?

If Scott Walker actually wins public-employee households, I’ll need to drop Humpbot and come up with a new, even sexier victory mascot to fully capture the jubilation. Over at the NYT decision desk, Nate Silver is about ready to make a call:

Mr. Walker leads his Democratic opponent, Mayor Tom Barrett of Milwaukee, by an average of six percentage points in those polls and has not trailed in any poll since February.

Some polls issued by Democratic-affiliated groups have shown a somewhat tighter race, with Mr. Barrett trailing by about three percentage points instead. Partisan-affiliated polls have a long track record of somewhat exaggerating their candidate’s standing, however, and it may be telling that even these polls do not show Mr. Barrett ahead.

In a typical November election, a 6-point lead with two weeks to go would translate into a high probability of winning — roughly on the order of 90 percent, based on the historical accuracy of polls of governors’ races.

The dynamics of a recall election may be slightly more uncertain. But with high turnout expected, which tends to make polling more reliable, Mr. Barrett would most likely need a last-minute change in momentum to have much of a chance of prevailing.

Like me, he’s not fully sure what accounts for Walker’s staying power. The collective bargaining law appears to be a minor asset at best and possibly even a tiny liability at worst, but the magical combination of incumbency, massive campaign spending, a contentious Democratic primary, and recall fatigue among Wisconsinites has us rocketing towards a waterloo for big labor. And … maybe more?

In other Wisconsin news, Tom Barrett’s own pollster says this one is going down to the wire. I’m skeptical, but beware: Even We Ask America, the most bullish pollster of all, cautions that “A massive, well-organized GOTV program by Barrett’s supporters combined with enough of Walker’s supporters staying home can change everything.” Buy champagne, but only on the way home from voting.


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Let’s see…how many bags of Orville’s do I have hoarded in the garage?

Dunedainn on May 24, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Please…please…PLEASE!…let the scales fall from the eyes of these people.

SMACKRUNNER on May 24, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Walker wins, and Wisconsin could actually go Republican in November. If the Republicans become truly competitive statewide in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, the Democrats math for getting to 270 comes crashing down for a generation.

Jurisprudence on May 24, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Romney/Walker?

AshleyTKing on May 24, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Romney/Walker?

AshleyTKing on May 24, 2012 at 7:33 PM

Walker/Romney

tetriskid on May 24, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Romney/Walker?

You can’t have him, he’s ours.

But this I cannot emphasize it enough, and I’m going to put it on every single thread that mentions Walker from now until June 5:

WE CANNOT BE COMPLACENT! Liberals are using vans to bring bunches of people down to early vote for Barrett. We conservatives MUST counter this by getting every single Walker supporter to the polls between now and June 5.

We cannot afford to sit at home and hope someone else will vote for Walker.

Go and take someone with you who will vote for Walker.

LET’S KEEP WISCONSIN RED!

englishqueen01 on May 24, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Romney/Walker?

AshleyTKing on May 24, 2012 at 7:33 PM

It would be nice to let Walker “marinate” politically for anther term as governor, but given his fast ascent with Republicans, conservatives, and Tea party activists, Romney picking him for Veep would send a jolt of political energy into the based of both parties.

It would double down on the notion of the 2012 Presidential election being decisive in the history of the Republic. Aside from economics, it would truly be an election about the Constitution, limited government, and federalism vs. the privileged few from afar, limited freedom, and a centrally planned economy.

Jurisprudence on May 24, 2012 at 7:51 PM

OT: need a laugh? check out legalinsurrection.com–the newest post on Fauxcahontas……then click on the amazon book reviews of Pow Wow Chow! I nearly bust a gut LOLin.g

ted c on May 24, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Okay, just found the humpbot substitute

Sekhmet on May 24, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Walker said during Barrett’s time as mayor that unemployment in Milwaukee has gone up 28 percent. That comes at the same time unemployment has decreased in the state, Walker said.
“I don’t like the failure of the city government there,” Walker said.

Read more: http://chippewa.com/news/local/8715ac40-a5b6-11e1-ac70-001a4bcf887a.html#ixzz1vpsVU5HP

CW on May 24, 2012 at 8:18 PM

“A massive, well-organized GOTV program by Barrett’s supporters combined with enough of Walker’s supporters staying home can change everything.”

can we put this on the masthead of HA, or something? you know, this applies to Nov also…esp the swing states.

barry’s machine will drive people to the polls in Busloads, handing out cigs as needed. The Right has to have a massive GOTV effort to beat barry

i know there are some polls that are encouraging, but don’t get cocky as one internet wise man says

r keller on May 24, 2012 at 8:24 PM

What a treat to come home from work and log on to see this! Margaritaville. Just remember to vote and tell everyone you know to vote. Can’t trust them you know.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 8:42 PM

The absentee ballot changed too. I think voter id is going to be used for this election. There are all sorts of things on the envelope that has to do with showing id.

Brat4life on May 24, 2012 at 4:55 PM

I noticed in the primary they had our signatures, and we had to sign again and they compared it. We have always offered our DL, and they always said we don’t need to see it. But this time it was a bit different like they really cared. Go figure.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 8:49 PM

In fact, (last Eeyore statement I promise), could there be any possibility of the polls being rigged to create such a high comfort level of Walker winning that people would would have voted will stay home?
PackerFan4Life on May 24, 2012 at 5:03 PM

The first thing I thought of when I read how many public union households is they are saying one thing to skew the poll and will go in and vote Barrett. I have seen them screw us 6 ways to Sunday year after year. I don’t trust anything until we all vote and NO ONE should stay home. Also I hope if there is cheating in Milwaukee, they catch it and throw the votes out.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 9:07 PM

One commenter suggested videoing anything fishy. I can’t recommend this too much. Walker is way ahead and outside the margin of lawyer. But the unions will be pulling out all the stops.

A victory would be nice but a few felony convictions for tampering would be a nice cherry on top, no?

Pythagoras on May 24, 2012 at 9:35 PM

I wished I lived in WI so I could vote for Walker. I hope all GOPers go out and support him, and drag ten of their friends and family members with them.

changer1701 on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 PM

Okay, just found the humpbot substitute

Sekhmet on May 24, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Goddamm can’t get that out of my head now.

I agree. Great substitute.

Ozwitch on May 24, 2012 at 9:53 PM

I hope to G-d Scott Walker is lawyered up, because I am going to call it now:

The Democrats are going to try and steal this one they way the tried to steal Florida in 2000.

The stories you are reading about Democrats “pulling out” of Wisconsin are b/s. I bet they are misdirection.

Assume that the fraud will be widespread, centering in Milwaukee, Madison, and in other Rotten Boroughs, and be run out of the White House.

Remember what got Al Franken elected.

victor82 on May 24, 2012 at 6:03 PM

As a matter of fact he is lawyered up. This is what I am worried about, if Obama is helping it is going to be very dirty and skillful. Remember what they did to Hillary.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 10:11 PM

From a lefty blog, firedog lake…

In response to reddog @ 27
There is hope. Remember, it’s not who votes, it’s who counts the votes.

That’s exactly what I fear. If they are counting them, we are screwed.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 11:12 PM

From a lefty blog, firedog lake…

In response to reddog @ 27
There is hope. Remember, it’s not who votes, it’s who counts the votes.

That’s exactly what I fear. If they are counting them, we are screwed.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 11:12 PM

A few hours ago I contributed to Walker again. I too am worried that the Demonrats will try and steal the election.

redridinghood on May 24, 2012 at 11:24 PM

People do forget, though, that we do have allies.

Remember what happened during the Prosser/Kloppenburg election. Waukesha County came through due to withholding it’s numbers until after all of Dane county came in.

We do have options.

UODuckMan on May 24, 2012 at 11:30 PM

Oh my. You’re honestly surprised?

minnesoter on May 24, 2012 at 11:37 PM

My husband is a public union employee, not in WI, but here in MI. He gets it, we get it. Public union employees are paid with tax payer dollars. Everyone has made cuts, we need to also make cuts. We do not partake in the cult of unionism.

Years and years ago public employees were put on a pedestal, they were thanked for their service. They made far less at that time than workers in the private sector, so they sweetened the pot with great benefits and pension plans to make up the difference, and all was good. The government in all it’s infinite wisdom increased public union positions, increased the salaries through the years and included the benefits and perks. Now today, public union employees generally make far more than those in the private sector. The once sweetening of the pot is now commonplace and unfortunately a sense of entitlement has occurred.

shar61 on May 25, 2012 at 7:11 AM

I always thought the Democrats and the union thugs acted like little children when the legislation was being debated, before the recalls. THen to over-use the recall procedures, like they did, just doubled-down on their childish behavior which has finally culminated with this vote.

The only thing I really didn’t know was if the citizens of Wisconsin saw it the same way. Apparently, if the polls are correct, they did. Democrats behaving badly, I wonder if they’ll learn from this?

bflat879 on May 25, 2012 at 7:38 AM

Okay, just found the humpbot substitute

Sekhmet on May 24, 2012 at 8:07 PM

LOL cute

conservative tarheel on May 25, 2012 at 9:27 AM

on DU they are calling for Obama to get involved …

conservative tarheel on May 25, 2012 at 9:38 AM

If this were a clean election, Walker will Walker away with it… but it’s not a clean election. Yesterday, I saw a mom complaining because her daughter (who lives in New York) didn’t get the right absentee ballot. I saw parents assisting their daughter who was obviously not competent, fill out a ballot.

A GOTV worker told me about parking lots FILLED with Illinois plates (I told him to go get pictures and file them with the GOP). Busses of people are coming in, and van loads of folks from all over Milwaukee. (LOL – if you live in Milwaukee and want a ride to vote, call the Dems. I’d love to have them waste their time/money/gas driving the R’s the polls).

In my town, at least, it is the City Clerk who goes to the Nursing Homes to collect ballots – I have a level of confidence that there’s integrity there.

Daisy_WI on May 25, 2012 at 9:51 AM

The best part of this will be the uniongoons’ poor behavior after being trounced.

What they do and say thereafter will be highly entertaining (except for any victims of mayhem and property damage, of which there might be plenty).

Akzed on May 25, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Jurisprudence on May 24, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Remember Carville and the next 40 years of democrat rule – it lasted 2. Hubris comes before the fall.

Zomcon JEM on May 25, 2012 at 11:11 AM

The first thing I thought of when I read how many public union households is they are saying one thing to skew the poll and will go in and vote Barrett. I have seen them screw us 6 ways to Sunday year after year. I don’t trust anything until we all vote and NO ONE should stay home. Also I hope if there is cheating in Milwaukee, they catch it and throw the votes out.

wi farmgirl on May 24, 2012 at 9:07 PM

You really think they would throw the votes out if found cheating for Barret? Like they did for “vote for smokes” or a free BBQ “grill out” once you vote for a democrat?

watertown on May 25, 2012 at 12:46 PM

Reality is going to hit these leftist bastards like a ten ton sledgehammer in November.
We are a nation of FREEDOM loving Americans and we are about to prove it.

maelstrom on May 25, 2012 at 4:56 PM

You really think they would throw the votes out if found cheating for Barret? Like they did for “vote for smokes” or a free BBQ “grill out” once you vote for a democrat?

watertown on May 25, 2012 at 12:46 PM

No but they should.

wi farmgirl on May 25, 2012 at 10:00 PM

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