Marist swing-state polls show Romney gaining on Obama

posted at 8:41 am on May 24, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

NBC and Marist polls in three key states won by Barack Obama in 2008 show that the incumbent is far from making the sale in 2012.  Mitt Romney has gained significant ground in all three states, seen as must-wins by both campaigns, but still trails for the moment in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio:

President Barack Obama holds a narrow advantage over presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney in three of the most pivotal presidential battleground states — Florida, Ohio and Virginia — according to new NBC-Marist polls.

But in each of these states, Obama’s share of the vote is below the 50 percent threshold usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney has narrowed the margin in these three battlegrounds since earlier this year.

In Florida and Virginia, Obama leads Romney by an identical four-point margin, 48 percent to 44 percent, among registered voters, including those who are undecided but leaning toward a particular candidate.

In Ohio, the president is ahead by six points, 48 percent to 42 percent.

In March NBC-Marist polls — conducted during the middle of the GOP primary season — Obama led Romney by 12 points in Ohio (50 percent to 38 percent), and by a whopping 17 points in Virginia (52 percent to 35 percent). In January, Obama was ahead of Romney by eight points (49 percent to 41 percent).

The trends look poor for the President, but what about the reliability of the numbers themselves?  Let’s take a quick look at the D/R/I splits in all three polls and compare them to 2010 and 2008:

  • Florida: Marist 43/35/21, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
  • Virginia: Marist 31/29/39, 2008 39/33/27, 2010 N/A (No Senate or gubernatorial election)
  • Ohio: Marist 37/28/34, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28

In other words, Marist uses a model in Florida that assumes Democratic turnout will be six points higher than in 2008 and seven points higher than in 2010, while Republican turnout remains largely the same, which means that independents vanish.  In Ohio, Marist assumes Democratic turnout will be only slightly lower than 2008, while Republican turnout craters below their nadir in 2008 and ignores the big GOP turnout in 2010.  Only Virginia looks like a somewhat rational predictive model for the 2012 election, although they significantly oversample independents.

Don’t forget that we’re also looking at registered voters in these models, too, not likely voters.  By this time, pollsters should be able to start applying likely-voter models, and in fact the Marist poll’s tables do have some data on which to build those models.  That data doesn’t look good for Obama, though.  Asked to rate their interest in the presidential election from 1 to 5 with 1 being the most interested, 72% of Virginia Republicans gave a 1, while only 60% of Democrats and 56% of independents did the same.  Combining 1 & 2, the D/R/I for enthusiasm in Virginia is 72/78/67.  For Florida, 1-only D/R/I is 68/73/52, 1&2 D/R/I 77/81/66.  In Ohio, respectively, it’s almost even at 63/63/54 and 75/74/64.

The actual status for Obama in these three swing states is more dire than the toplines of these three surveys show, and it’s trending downward for Team O.


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Ed is a master at interpreting this stuff. ++

ted c on May 24, 2012 at 8:46 AM

It still looks like Romney will win Florida but lose Ohio and VA.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Obama….
Whatever you are doing….
Keep doing it…

*sounds strange…but necessary*

Electrongod on May 24, 2012 at 8:48 AM

Morning. Joe crew thinks if dear leader can hold VA along with Co and NM….hes got it in the bag…..

Skewed. Polls for the delusional

cmsinaz on May 24, 2012 at 8:50 AM

Quinnipiac had Romney ahead 47/41 in Florida yesterday.

Trafalgar on May 24, 2012 at 8:51 AM

In other words, Marist uses a model in Florida that assumes Democratic turnout will be six points higher than in 2008 and seven points higher than in 2010, while Republican turnout remains largely the same, which means that independents vanish. In Ohio, Marist assumes Democratic turnout will be only slightly lower than 2008, while Republican turnout craters below their nadir in 2008 and ignores the big GOP turnout in 2010.

In other words, more BS polls by a BS media. If you take a realistic sample based on 2010 and what the electorate will likely look like this November, Obama is losing Ohio and Florida. Virginia is closer, but Romney could be in position to spend a lot of time and money there if he no longer has to worry about the other two(and he’s all but got Indiana and North Carolina in the bag).

Doughboy on May 24, 2012 at 8:55 AM

How effing stupid do you have to be at this point to even consider pulling the lever for TFGP.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 8:55 AM

…INSANE!

KOOLAID2 on May 24, 2012 at 8:57 AM

The closer we get to November, the harder it will be for Obama to keep up the charade.

AubieJon on May 24, 2012 at 9:00 AM

I am no longer surprised by people’s lack of sense. Some people cannot be reached.

TXMomof3 on May 24, 2012 at 9:01 AM

How effing stupid do you have to be at this point to even consider pulling the lever for TFGP.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 8:55 AM

Well, he wrapped camo bandana around his head, personally mounted a chopper to take him into the lion’s den of Pakistan to strangle Bin Laden with his bare hands, taking out half the Al Qeda contingent in the country in the process with a roaring M60!

What more could you want?

A successful economy and prosperity?

It is to laugh.

Colbyjack on May 24, 2012 at 9:03 AM

The D/R/I numbers in the Virginia poll actually look normal, based on 2010′s final results. Which may just mean that whomever was coordinating the poll for Marist there just happened to get a ‘good’ response — i.e., supportive of the president — and didn’t have to over-weigh the D sample and under-weigh the R, as with Florida and Ohio (though in the Virginia case, it would be nice to also know if the polling was over-weighted towards calls in the Washington D.C. suburbs, which would be the mostly likely to house your RINOs-for-Obama types).

jon1979 on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM

this isn’t 2008.

rob verdi on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Mitt Romney has gained significant ground in all three states, seen as must-wins by both campaigns, but still trails for the moment in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio:

Yesterday, he’s up in Florida. This poll $hit is getting silly. He’s up, he’s down, he’s all around. Need some dramamine.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM

The closer we get to November, the harder it will be for Obama to keep up the charade.

AubieJon on May 24, 2012 at 9:00 AM

The fact that he’s out there now claiming he’s not a big spender shows that he’s reached the point of “I’ll say or do anything”. He’s already flip-flopped on gay marriage, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a college loan bailout or Hillary for VP stunt in the next few months.

Doughboy on May 24, 2012 at 9:05 AM

How effing stupid do you have to be at this point to even consider pulling the lever for TFGP.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 8:55 AM

I have a few progressive friends that still offer very spirited debate in his favor. Rationalization is considered a defense mechanism in our interaction with our students when they perform poorly. I apply the same logic to those few friends.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:08 AM

Yesterday, he’s up in Florida. This poll $hit is getting silly. He’s up, he’s down, he’s all around. Need some dramamine.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Take them all with a grain of salt and watch the way they trend as a whole.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:09 AM

The actual status for Obama in these three swing states is more dire than the toplines of these three surveys show, and it’s trending downward for Team O.

Um, Pat. I need to buy a vowel. Total geek talk.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:10 AM

…I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a college loan bailout or Hillary for VP stunt in the next few months.

Doughboy on May 24, 2012 at 9:05 AM

Heck with that.

0bama is gonna’ come out and claim that now Is the time to decide whether we want to be a backwards people using capitalist country or if we want to be a forward moving social(ist) democracy like what works so well in Europe.

The lefty’s will kill or die to win the election over that.

cozmo on May 24, 2012 at 9:12 AM

The actual status for Obama in these three swing states is more dire than the toplines of these three surveys show, and it’s trending downward for Team O.

That’s the thing I think important at this point. Romney is trending up and Obama is trending down. Of course that could change in a heartbeat (remember the Howard Dean Scream or the bright idea of putting Michael Dukakis in a tank?)

Happy Nomad on May 24, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Yesterday, he’s up in Florida. This poll $hit is getting silly. He’s up, he’s down, he’s all around. Need some dramamine.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM

The Cedar Point effect?

Extrafishy on May 24, 2012 at 9:15 AM

I hope Obama keeps running ads that paint Romney as someone who is controlled by the extreme right.

The Rogue Tomato on May 24, 2012 at 9:15 AM

Yesterday, he’s up in Florida. This poll $hit is getting silly. He’s up, he’s down, he’s all around. Need some dramamine.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:04 AM

Take them all with a grain of salt and watch the way they trend as a whole.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:09 AM

So add salt to my dramamine. Got it. Seriously, I hear what you’re saying.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:16 AM

The fact that he’s out there now claiming he’s not a big spender shows that he’s reached the point of “I’ll say or do anything”. He’s already flip-flopped on gay marriage, and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a college loan bailout or Hillary for VP stunt in the next few months.

Doughboy on May 24, 2012 at 9:05 AM

I predict a new word to be coined in the next few months: Obamaphobe. It may already be out there.

AubieJon on May 24, 2012 at 9:16 AM

I have a few progressive friends that still offer very spirited debate in his favor.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:08 AM

It’s okay, you can call them liberals around here.

Happy Nomad on May 24, 2012 at 9:16 AM

The only poll worth a damn is the one you offer your opinion to on election day.

Well, you and about 1.5 million deceased Donk voters across the nation.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:18 AM

I could see a college loan bailout too. TFGP isn’t above using our money to simply buy votes.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM

The Virginia number is horrible, imo. The partisan split isn’t ridiculous and Romney hasn’t been ahead in any poll there. VA looks like it’s settled on Obama and that’s that.

The St Norbert poll out yesterday that showed Gov Walker with a 5 pt lead also shows Obama up comfortably by 6 here is WI, so we are out of play in the Presidential race.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM

So add salt to my dramamine.

msupertas on May 24, 2012 at 9:16 AM

My advice, dump the dramamine. Put the salt on the rim of a Margarita glass and hibernate until September.

Happy Nomad on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:08 AM

It’s okay, you can call them liberals around here.

Happy Nomad on May 24, 2012 at 9:16 AM

They’re not classic liberals in their views. They’re progressives.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM

Living in Virginia, my opinion is that none of the polls really reflect the mood accurately. The most polarizing and black President skews an awful lot of the models they are using.

Happy Nomad on May 24, 2012 at 9:21 AM

“The only poll worth a damn is the one you offer your opinion to on election day.”

That’s what every single losing campaign says.

Dole supporters kept saying it. McCain supporters kept saying it.

Maybe Obama really is a political Messiah if he can get easily re-elected (He will hold all his 2008 states minus NC and FL, imo) with a bad economy.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:21 AM

“Living in Virginia, my opinion is that none of the polls really reflect the mood accurately. The most polarizing and black President skews an awful lot of the models they are using.”

How does Obama skew the polling models? He won VA easily in 08, and has consistently lead in every single poll take there this year. This just looks like one of those states that cannot be won anymore by a Republican in a Presidential election (like Colorado and New Mexico now). It’s turning Blue right before our eyes.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:25 AM

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:19 AM
gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:21 AM
gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Your concern is duly noted, and thank you for doing your part to try and depress turnout for Rombo.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Maybe Obama really is a political Messiah if he can get easily re-elected (He will hold all his 2008 states minus NC and FL, imo) with a bad economy.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:21 AM

Obama’s all but lost NC and Indiana already. Florida and Ohio are not looking good. Virginia is a tossup(assuming these polls are accurate), but it’s also a traditionally red state(even Dole won it in 1996) and McDonnell won the gubernatorial race there in 2009 by 18 points. And that was back BEFORE Obamacare had been rammed through, driving down his popularity even more. In other words, it’s Romney’s for the taking. Obama is no Messiah. He’s gonna have a very hard time holding all of these red-leaning states, and he doesn’t have much of a margin for error.

Doughboy on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Your concern is duly noted, and thank you for doing your part to try and depress turnout for Rombo.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:29 AM

LOL…I was getting worried that HA was running low on concern trolls…but thank goodness hopeyandchangey showed up.

HumpBot Salvation on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Too much good news lately and all most of the nutballs have gone away.

Somebody had to take up the slack.

cozmo on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

This just looks like one of those states that cannot be won anymore by a Republican in a Presidential election (like Colorado and New Mexico now). It’s turning Blue right before our eyes.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Obama was the first filthy Democrat to win in Virginia since 1960 and frankly that is largely because of his race and not because Virginians have turned into European socialists. Deal with it troll.

Happy Nomad on May 24, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Who are these people?

SouthernGent on May 24, 2012 at 9:37 AM

The only poll that matters happens on November 6th.

His media lackeys will run out of cover for him long before that.

He’s done, and he knows it.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on May 24, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Unfortunately, I know a lot of people who STILL think that Obama is doing a fine job, that he inherited the bad economy from Bush, that Republicans are unreasonably obstructing everything that The Big Zero is doing, and that anyone who opposes him is a racist. And these are not raving lunatics in the other areas of their lives. These are “normal” people. I also had dinner last night with a Republican friend (we’re hard to find, living in New York) who said it’s a choice between the “lesser of two evils”, and was considering voting for the independent. I think I convinced her that voting for the independent was essentially voting for 0bama, and the important thing is to get him out of office. Of course, our votes count for nothing in this state, but still.

JoAnn1965 on May 24, 2012 at 9:39 AM

“Obama was the first filthy Democrat to win in Virginia since 1960 and frankly that is largely because of his race and not because Virginians have turned into European socialists.”

Oh, really?

The residents of Northern VA are pretty close to that description.

You guys can try to deny it all you want, but these VA and OH results are not outliers from other polls this year. Voters in these two states just do not like Mitt Romney. And all Obama needs to do is hold one of these and the election is locked.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

HumpBot Salvation on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Gumby is a lifelong conservative who voted for Donald Reagan and owns a few of those gun thingies, but he’s very concerned with the rightward tilt of Romney and thinks that perhaps 4 more years of TFGP wouldn’t be so bad.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

“The only poll that matters happens on November 6th.”

There it is again…the Loser’s Lament. Supporters of the winning side never utter these lame words.

Sounds just like 08 again.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

According to the “C.Q. Guide to U.S. Elections,” there have been only seven sitting presidents who have ever received less than 60 percent of the vote in any primary: Taft in ’12; Coolidge, ’24; Hoover, ’32; LBJ, ’68; Ford ’76; Carter, ’80; and Bush ’92. All of these presidents, with the exception of Coolidge, were not re-elected — and he eventually faced a substantial third-party challenge from one of his primary challengers.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Too much good news lately and all most of the nutballs have gone away.

Somebody had to take up the slack.

cozmo on May 24, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Hey, I came back.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

“Gumby is a lifelong conservative who voted for Donald Reagan and owns a few of those gun thingies, but he’s very concerned with the rightward tilt of Romney and thinks that perhaps 4 more years of TFGP wouldn’t be so bad.”

Conservative…yes.

But also enough of a realist (and old enough, too) to realize polls are important and give info that’s actually quite predictive of the actual outcome. The Florida sample is crappy. But the VA sample is right on the money and clearly shows Romney in trouble there, just as other polls have shown the exact same thing.

But I know, I know, the only poll that matters is on election day! And on election night when Ohio and Virginia are called early for Obama, all the crying and whining will be going on wondering how people there could vote for the guy, when the polls all year long have been telling us exactly what was going to happen.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM

There it is again…the Loser’s Lament. Supporters of the winning side never utter these lame words.

Sounds just like 08 again.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

______________________________________________

Here’s a few big differences from ’08, champ:

Instead of a mass coverup by the media and others as to what this guy really was (& is), he now has an actual record to run on, one curiously he’s doing everything he can to run away from;

You have a GOP candidate who, you know, appears to actually WANT to win;

Independents are fleeing from him in droves, and the “stupid white guilt” fad is over.

There’s nothing left in the empty suit’s bag of tricks to pull out – the Greek columns will go into permanent storage.

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on May 24, 2012 at 9:47 AM

There it is again…the Loser’s Lament. Supporters of the winning side never utter these lame words.

Sounds just like 08 again.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

The loser’s lament? Dude, that’s you. I’m getting ready to call the suicide hotline for you.

I take it you’re either someone who’s candidate lost in the primary or you’re just trying to depress conservative votes. If you’re one that would like to see President Obama defeated, are you just going to sit there and cry like a little girl or do something about it?

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Keep up the pressure, people. Let’s turn the re-coronation into a landslide defeat.

Red Cloud on May 24, 2012 at 9:50 AM

You guys can try to deny it all you want, but these VA and OH results are not outliers from other polls this year. Voters in these two states just do not like Mitt Romney. And all Obama needs to do is hold one of these and the election is locked.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

But how will Obama be able to hold onto those states if a majority of voters there think he’s doing a lousy job? Remember, Virginia voted in a Republican as governor in a landslide less than a year after Obama took office. Ohio went heavily for the GOP in the 2010 midterms. So 2008 is looking more like an anomaly which means there’s a very good chance these two traditionally Republican states(at least when it comes to Presidential elections) will revert to form come November.

Doughboy on May 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

“There’s nothing left in the empty suit’s bag of tricks to pull out – the Greek columns will go into permanent storage.”

Just because you want it doesn’t make it so. The numbers from Ohio and Virginia are one-sided and consistent in poll after poll. If you want to disbelieve them and think that magically on election night the results will be different than what the polls have been showing you all year long, be my guest.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:53 AM

•Florida: Marist 43/35/21, 2008 37/34/29, 2010 36/36/29
•Virginia: Marist 31/29/39, 2008 39/33/27, 2010 N/A (No Senate or gubernatorial election)
•Ohio: Marist 37/28/34, 2008 39/31/30, 2010 36/37/28

The crosstabs make this poll nothing but liberal propaganda. There is no way that the turnout will be better for Democrats in 2012 than it was in 2008 (as Marist pretends in Florida). There is no way fewer Republicans are coming out than did in 2008, or 2010 (as Marist pretends in Florida). And there is no reason to believe that the share of independents has gone up so dramatically in Virginia. Not to mention, again, the share of Republicans will not go down.

It’s hard to take polls like this when they make up a result they want without any indication to back up why they think their model is correct. It might make angryed happy, but it is useless.

milcus on May 24, 2012 at 9:54 AM

But I know, I know, the only poll that matters is on election day! And on election night when Ohio and Virginia are called early for Obama, all the crying and whining will be going on wondering how people there could vote for the guy, when the polls all year long have been telling us exactly what was going to happen.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Since TFGP already has this in the bag, I take it you will be staying home on election day, sulking about all those idiots who just didn’t see things as clearly as you.

You want to tuck tail and run, go ahead, the men out here will take up your whiny slack.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Wait, what am I saying, I’m acting as if Gumby isn’t a moby stooge. No matter who wins, Gumby will curiously disappear from HotGas after the election, never to be seen again.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:59 AM

“But how will Obama be able to hold onto those states if a majority of voters there think he’s doing a lousy job? Remember, Virginia voted in a Republican as governor in a landslide less than a year after Obama took office. Ohio went heavily for the GOP in the 2010 midterms. So 2008 is looking more like an anomaly which means there’s a very good chance these two traditionally Republican states(at least when it comes to Presidential elections) will revert to form come November.”

Again, you just want to ignore what every single friggin’ poll in VA is telling you. Obama is rock solid in Northern VA and there are a ton of votes there. It’s basically DC on a lesser scale. There isn’t even a realistic argument that the state is in play until a poll shows Mitt winning there.

In Ohio, Romney has always been weaker than in FL, for example. IIRC, he was ahead in only one single poll there and that was by one point. And I think the lost Union vs Kasich fight is still a factor. The Republicans took a gigantic beating.

I believe in what the numbers tell me. I don’t care about what should be, only what is.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

“The crosstabs make this poll nothing but liberal propaganda. There is no way that the turnout will be better for Democrats in 2012 than it was in 2008 (as Marist pretends in Florida). There is no way fewer Republicans are coming out than did in 2008, or 2010 (as Marist pretends in Florida). And there is no reason to believe that the share of independents has gone up so dramatically in Virginia. Not to mention, again, the share of Republicans will not go down.”

The Florida sample is rotten and the result is out of line with other polls.

But the VA sample is reasonable and the result is dead in-line with other polls taken there.

The OH result is also what other polls have been showing, but I do think the sample is skewed.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

It is sad. Ed works his darndest to interpret polls that show a positive for Obama as methodologically flawed and to not analyze the cross tabs in polls that show Mitt doing well in Wisconsin (apparently all the Dems there have become Republicans). But at this point it may be best to let those who would live in a fantasy world do their thing. Forcing them into reality could be traumatizing.

libfreeordie on May 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

libfreeordie on May 24, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Awww, Gumby you have a new buddy.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Gumby is a lifelong conservative who voted for Donald Reagan and owns a few of those gun thingies, but he’s very concerned with the rightward tilt of Romney and thinks that perhaps 4 more years of TFGP wouldn’t be so bad.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 9:40 AM

What? Gumby voted for the Gipper’s former Chief of Staff?

freedomfirst on May 24, 2012 at 10:16 AM

“It is sad. Ed works his darndest to interpret polls that show a positive for Obama as methodologically flawed and to not analyze the cross tabs in polls that show Mitt doing well in Wisconsin (apparently all the Dems there have become Republicans). But at this point it may be best to let those who would live in a fantasy world do their thing. Forcing them into reality could be traumatizing.”

The Marist polls are odd. The Florida poll is crap, imo. The Ohio sample is too skewed to the Dems, but Obama is way ahead, so it’s still not good for Romney, even if the sample was better. And VA has a very good sample with a very bad result for Mitt.

And the fact of the matter is that these are all must-win states for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I believe in what the numbers tell me. I don’t care about what should be, only what is.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:00 AM

And there’s just not a darned thing you can possibly do about it, right?

Trafalgar on May 24, 2012 at 10:20 AM

The Florida sample is rotten and the result is out of line with other polls.

But the VA sample is reasonable and the result is dead in-line with other polls taken there.

The OH result is also what other polls have been showing, but I do think the sample is skewed.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I do not look at results per se, as I do the internals. I do not get caught up in actual numbers (because they simply measure who was willing to answer a poll in a given span based on who was randomly, or in the case of some pollsters, not randomly called, and self-identification). I look at trends and the crosstabs.

As you said, the Florida result is embarassing. The crosstabs are badly skewed, and the trend is not in line with any other poll.

For OH, the tabs are also fairly skewed. However, most other polls have shown the race tightening (many of them also have problems with sampling).

As for Virginia, the sample is reasonable from a D/R perspective assuming Northern Virginia turn-out is as solid as it was in 2008. Several problems with that though: 1) it was not when Obama was on the ballot, 2) voter enthusiasm for Democrats, in general, is down, 3) voter turnout for Republicans will be up this year, 4) The biggest county in Northern Virginia (Fairfield I believe), has actually lost voters between 2008 and now (a majority of them would have been Democrats). The bigger problem is why did Marist pretend 40% of the turn-out will be independents, and why that did not slant the result to Romney (considering most polls show Romney leading with independents). To me, that says fuzzy math.

Regardless, what is clear is the following:

1. Romney probably is the favorite to win Florida right now.
2. Obama probably is slightly ahead in Ohio, although Romney has closed to within the margin or error, and consdiering late deciders break against the incumbant, and Indepenents favor Romney, he should win Ohio in November.
3. Obama is slightly ahead in Virginia, although, like Ohio should go to Romney when all is said and done for the same reasons.

To me, focusing on the old battleground states at this point misses the point. I think the old battleground states of 2008 will all go Romney. The question is how many of the new battleground states, like PA, WI, MI, IA, NH, NV, CO, MN, NJ will go to Romney as well.

milcus on May 24, 2012 at 10:29 AM

How does Obama skew the polling models? He won VA easily in 08, and has consistently lead in every single poll take there this year. This just looks like one of those states that cannot be won anymore by a Republican in a Presidential election (like Colorado and New Mexico now). It’s turning Blue right before our eyes.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:25 AM

this guy is definitely a troll- EVERY post he makes is negative and pessimistic regarding Romney. Really? Virginia is absolutely lost to the GOP now?!!

Uh, in every election since 1964 except in 08 it voted GOP. It elected a GOP Governor in 2009 even though Obama personally campaigned against him. SIX GOP congressmen defeated and took over seats held by the Donkeys in 2010.

but somehow Romney can never win VA?! Take your trolling elsewhere

AirForceCane on May 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM

And the fact of the matter is that these are all must-win states for Romney.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I disagree. Romney seems like he will take Wisconsin, and be competitive in states like Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada. The map is actually looking better for him than it did for McCain or Bush in 2004. Neither could win without Ohio AND Virginia. I think Romney can win without winning either of those states. However, as I mentioned above, I think when all is said and done, he will win both Ohio and Virginia, while also taking states like Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

milcus on May 24, 2012 at 10:32 AM

One other point about supposed trends, since everyone looks at RCP.

I just looked at their average for Virginia, Florida and Ohio.

The only reason there is a “consensus” of Obama leading VA and OH is because the average is skewed by PPP, the Washington Post and Marist. WaPo has become a joke and the most biased institution in America. PPP clearly is skewed towards Democrats, and so is Marist. You take their polls away and Romney is comfortably up in Florida, and Ohio and Virginia are coin-flips.

milcus on May 24, 2012 at 10:38 AM

AirForceCane on May 24, 2012 at 10:30 AM

That’s correct. He quoted my comments so I know he was looking at them. And then ignored them when I asked if he wanted President Obama beaten.

He won’t say a single derogatory thing about him, but Mitt Romney on the other hand…

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Why did Reagan crush Carter by 10 points when Carter had been up by 6 in October?

Reagan Democrats. It was the blue-collar, union, rural, suburban, predominantly white and Christian Democrats that crossed over and voted Republican that caused a landslide. Yes, WV, KY, and AR — Obama failed to register 60% of the vote in each –were never going to go Obama in November, but you have to look that who was voting against Obama in those CLOSED Democratic primaries and whether they have counterparts in other states in large blocs. They do….OH, PA, VA, NC, MO, IN, IA, etc….

For example, ALL of Kentucky’s counties that border Ohio voted for Mr Uncommitted in the Democratic primary. Culturally, economically, professionally, traditionally, and historically, these are the same voters in southern Ohio, especially southeast Ohio.

That’s why the WH should be very concerned.

Obviously, Obama has a problem with a significant part of his 2008 coalition: blue-collar, union workers in Appalachia and the Midwest, especially in coal states. On Tuesday, turnout in the primaries was only around 11%, but 42% the vote was cast by Democrats, who left home/work, got in the car, drove to the polling stations, and voted AGAINST a SITTING POTUS, who is the head of their party.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 10:40 AM

“Romney seems like he will take Wisconsin”

According to what polls?

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:41 AM

Did you read any of my recent comments. Do you want to see President Obama beaten?

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

“Why did Reagan crush Carter by 10 points when Carter had been up by 6 in October?”

Because Consumer Confidence was way, way lower in 80 than it is now (and it’s trending upwards) and Reagan was one of the best Presidential candidates in history.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

“Did you read any of my recent comments. Do you want to see President Obama beaten?”

Absolutely.

But he won’t be, so why get your hopes up.

I actually volunteered for McCain/Palin after he chose Sarah for VP and then quit when that old turd suspended his campaign and his poll numbers cratered. I’m a realist, plain and simple.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:45 AM

How effing stupid do you have to be at this point to even consider pulling the lever for TFGP.

Bishop on May 24, 2012 at 8:55 AM

..dint see a question mark there, Bishop, so maybe you were asking rhetorically. But, notwithstanding, let me jump in here with my response:

“Pretty Effin’ Stooooopid!”

The War Planner on May 24, 2012 at 11:00 AM

People are lying to the pollsters. They don’t want to be thought of as racists.

Shave a good 5 points off Obummer’s numbers.

Along with (R), (D), and (I), we need an (L). For Lily-livered.

trigon on May 24, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Any “realist” would see that these polls, if accurate, are a call to action and that no election is won or lost in MAY. Even a “realist” would see the direction of these polls since the last taking.

Any true “realist” could see that while MAY polls show Obama winning in VA, the state has a recent (post 2008 win for Obama) history (09 gov, 2010 house) of voting strongly for Republicans and that Romney has a chance to connect with these same voters in the next FIVE MONTHS.

No true “realist” would see MAY polls in a year with lots of campaigning to go and world events that may influence the race one way or another and already decide its over.

No superstar election analyst / realist would say Obama keeps all his 2008 states minus FL and NC while forgetting INDIANA is not voting Obama this year unless there is a landslide tide in the Preezy’s favor.

You want Romney to win and defeat Obama this year? You see polls that suggest that Obama would win if the election were held today? Take the news and move forward. If you want to give up and ignore this race until its over, then might as well avoid this place since we’re generally engaged and not willing to give up.

BruinEric on May 24, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Absolutely.

But he won’t be, so why get your hopes up.

I actually volunteered for McCain/Palin after he chose Sarah for VP and then quit when that old turd suspended his campaign and his poll numbers cratered. I’m a realist, plain and simple.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Then I’ll just add one more comment to you while you’re in your Debbie Downer mode.

I wish there were a more Conservative candidate than Mitt Romney too. Disclosure … I supported him over McCain and Huckabee in 08 because I thought he was the most conservative and viable candidate “then”. Mitt Romney was even the first guy I ever volunteered to help with in a primary in my dwell time between deployments. This time I thought we had a few more conservative candidates and he wasn’t my first choice.

Commenters like me have gotten pretty well beat up for offering even mild defenses of candidates like Rick Perry and Rick Santorum and been equally beat up for pointing out concerns with Mitt Romney’s conservative creds by the extreme Romney shills here. (That have all but vanished since the last candidates dropped out, but I digress) Those Romney supporters were and are extreme in their rhetoric and a few I can’t even exchange with anymore. But the situation is what it is. Mitt Romney is the candidate. And we could certianly do worse. And here’s the main deal for me. While I have friends still serving in units I used to deploy with, I will do everything within my power to help defeat President Obama. Having a pity party for myself because Rick Perry didn’t win will do nothing for us in that regard.

Here is an IM for a pilot I taught how to fly in combat reduced to an ineffective target waiting to collect his Purple Heart while the ROE still effictively aids our enemies.

I gotta be honest with you Jim, morale is low all around.

We keep getting rocketed consistently with nothing being done about it cause the ROE is so tight. I have had three 107mm rockets hit within 30 meters of me….it is a miracle that nothing has been done about it. Two of them while I was in my tent.

Then a couple comments later …

The enemy feels so safe with our ROE that they wait for apaches to come overhead which signals them that we are coming to this certain FOB and them time it to lob indirect while we are on the LZ.

This is who we’re sucking it up for to support Mitt Romney and the GOP. If they want to keep putting pressure on Conservative Christians to leave their party later, fine. We’ll leave and fight other battles down the road. Right now I have friends in harms way because this president won’t allow them to do anything but sit on their asses and get mortared and rocketed.

Sounds like you abandoned the process in 08. Time to pay up.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:10 AM

But he won’t be, so why get your hopes up.

I actually volunteered for McCain/Palin after he chose Sarah for VP and then quit when that old turd suspended his campaign and his poll numbers cratered. I’m a realist, plain and simple.

He has a greater chance to be beaten, statistically, than probably every incumbant since the beginning of the 20th century. Again, I am not so sure why you think states where he leads by, lets assume RCP is correct, 3-5 points are gone.

The fact is that Obama is under 50 in almost every state, and his approval ratings has fallen in most of those states. And his trends are going in the wrong direction. Now, when you consider no President has ever won with unemployment this high, that late-deciders break against the President (and each poll only gets to about 85-90 if you notice), and that Obama will still hurt himself by things Democrats say, in his Debate performance, that the SCOTUS will hurt him by striking down Obamacare, and that Republicans will hurt him by running hundreds of millions of dollars of negative ads, the chances of him winning are slim.

milcus on May 24, 2012 at 11:11 AM

“The only poll that matters happens on November 6th.”

There it is again…the Loser’s Lament. Supporters of the winning side never utter these lame words.

Sounds just like 08 again.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 9:42 AM

..think you have the zero and the eight reversed, mega-tool. Should be 80 not 08.

The War Planner on May 24, 2012 at 11:12 AM

“Why did Reagan crush Carter by 10 points when Carter had been up by 6 in October?”

Because Consumer Confidence was way, way lower in 80 than it is now (and it’s trending upwards) and Reagan was one of the best Presidential candidates in history.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 10:43 AM

He did it with Democrats that crossed over and, specifically, with the types of Democrats that are voting for an imprisoned felon, Mr Uncommitted, and a Tennessee lawyer.

Unemployment, inflation, the Misery Index, etc., all played a huge role and the MI now is around 18.1% (using the same formula that they did for inflation back then).

But, the main thing was this:

People were sick of Carter. Carter had tried to make Reagan out to be a wild-eyed radical that would do away with Social Security and start WWIII. As the campaign went on, Reagan began to cross the threshold where people could actually see him as a POTUS. They also began to fear the uncertainty of a Reagan presidency far, far less than the certainty of another Carter term. This is why Obama is trying to paint Romney as a some radical person, but only fools are going to believe that. (I’m a libertarian and only voting GOP to get rid of Obama). Romney is not scary to independents and Reagan Democrats.

If Obama doesn’t start speaking positively and talking about what he would do in a second term, he is going to have a real problem. What will he do in a second term? What would be his agenda…other than 4 more years of blaming Bush and demonising certain people/groups? He hasn’t said.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 11:13 AM

By the way, remember that undecideds overwhelmingly break for the challenger in the end.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 11:14 AM

This is who we’re sucking it up for to support Mitt Romney and the GOP. If they want to keep putting pressure on Conservative Christians to leave their party later, fine. We’ll leave and fight other battles down the road. Right now I have friends in harms way because this president won’t allow them to do anything but sit on their asses and get mortared and rocketed.

Sounds like you abandoned the process in 08. Time to pay up.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:10 AM

..God bless you, Hawk, and your brothers in the hot zone. I know you have taught them well; I pray they come back to us safe and sound.

Thank you for your sentiments. They are noble.

The War Planner on May 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 11:13 AM

Great comment. I think the parallels you draw to 80 are right on.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

The War Planner on May 24, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Not noble I don’t think, but truthful. But thanks.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:25 AM

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Thanks.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 11:39 AM

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I’ll try again…

Thanks.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Not noble I don’t think, but truthful. But thanks.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 11:25 AM

..brave, then. in my eyes.

Thanks for your service. May your mates’ ROEs always clear them in hot.

The War Planner on May 24, 2012 at 11:41 AM

NBC-Marist poll… I don’t need to read any further.

roflmao

donabernathy on May 24, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Basically we have a poll of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia with a fantasy D/R/I in May….

William Eaton on May 24, 2012 at 11:52 AM

It still looks like Romney will win Florida but lose Ohio and VA.

gumbyandpokey on May 24, 2012 at 8:48 AM

I don’t see how people can come to that conclusion, particularly Ohio. Polling by telephone is much different than actually showing up at an election. First of all, only about 9% of the people they attempt to contact for these polls are home and willing to respond to the poll. Secondly, answering a phone is different from getting up and going to the polling place.

Democrats might not be as motivated to vote if they aren’t all that keen in Obama. They might not want to actively vote against him, but they might just decide to take a pass on the election. I am not seeing anything that would indicate a 2008 level of enthusiasm for 2012.

So far I am not seeing any strong indication that Obama is doing well in OH and Romney very well might take that state.

crosspatch on May 24, 2012 at 11:52 AM

FWIW, here’s another note:

Marist uses registered voters, not likely voters. RV polls usually add 3-5 points for Democrats. LV polls tend to favour the GOP. After Labour Day, most polling companies will join Rasmussen and start using only LVs.

Resist We Much on May 24, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Hey, I came back.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Rotorheads are nutballs by definition, so you do qualify.

Good rotorheads are like boomerangs…they always come back.

cozmo on May 24, 2012 at 12:13 PM

The only poll worth a damn is the one you offer your opinion to on election day.

Well, you and about 1.5 million deceased Donk voters across the nation.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 9:18 AM

You are so right.

These polls look so much like 2008. In fact this entire process so far looks like 2008. Except of course the Press is even more in the tank for Obama now as he is President. The entire Government is now helping Obama get elected Hatch Act be gone.

I look at Karl Roves map and see no way to win for Romney. Sorry but you just do not take every tossup and some lean Obama states as well as all your leans. It just does not happen.

Now November is a long ways off and Obama has not even begun the real fight.

Steveangell on May 24, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Steveangell on May 24, 2012 at 12:14 PM

Then if I were you I’d just stop commenting and give up. I mean, what’s the point in what you and folks like gumby are doing? It’s confusing unless one subscribes to the idea you’d rather President Obama win.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 12:19 PM

It doesn’t matter whether NBC partners with Marist, or with the Wall Street Journal, or anyone else.

When you put “NBC” in the name of the poll, you erase all credibility.

There are good pollsters and bad ones. ABC-Washington Post is a bad poll, and so are NBC-Marist and NBC-WSJ.

J Baustian on May 24, 2012 at 1:19 PM

The goal is to win the election, not win the polls. If I am ever polled, my answer will be ‘for Obama’. The longer we keep him (and his ilk) with their head in the sand the better we are.

Then on November 6th he gets his big surprise.

Carnac on May 24, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Ed…your analysis once again demonstrates you have no equal! Very well done.

SPGuy on May 24, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Then if I were you I’d just stop commenting and give up. I mean, what’s the point in what you and folks like gumby are doing? It’s confusing unless one subscribes to the idea you’d rather President Obama win.

hawkdriver on May 24, 2012 at 12:19 PM

And who is forcing you to read my post?

There are only two parties. I am certainly no where close to the other one. You are much closer if one of us leaves should be you and the rest of the RINOs.

We Tea Party types will stay. If we ever leave the GOP will cease to be a party in a few years.

Steveangell on May 24, 2012 at 3:01 PM

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