Quinnipiac FL poll puts Romney up by 6, 47/41

posted at 9:21 am on May 23, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Time for another whodunit, or more accurately, whatdunit in this presidential election.  Two months ago, Quinnipiac gave Barack Obama a statistically significant if not entirely comfortable seven-point lead in the key swing state of Florida at 49/42.  Now, after two months of Bain attacks, gay marriage flip-flops, a visa to the daughter of Cuban dictator Raul Castro, and a weakening economy, the same pollster puts Mitt Romney up by six, 47/41.

I’ll put my money on a Murder on the Orient Express explanation:

Gov. Mitt Romney holds a 47 – 41 percent lead over President Barack Obama in Florida, where 63 percent of voters say the president’s support of same-sex marriage will not affect their vote, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 25 – 11 percent of voters, including 23 – 9 percent among independent voters, say Obama’s support of gay marriage makes them less likely to support his candidacy.

Adding Florida U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio to the GOP ticket would give the Republican Romney/Rubio team a 49 – 41 percent lead over President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden.

Romney’s lead in the horse race compares to a 44 – 43 percent tie in a May 3 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University and a 49 – 42 percent Obama lead March 28.

Florida registered voters say 52 – 44 percent that the president does not deserve a second term in the Oval Office and by 52 – 44 percent give him a thumbs-down on his job approval.

Call this an all-of-the-above effect.  If a campaign wanted to deploy a deliberate strategy of alienation in Florida, it’s difficult to see how it could have been crafted any more effectively.  Retirees in Florida who already mistrust Obama on ObamaCare can’t have been terribly pleased to hear attacks on private equity, since many of them either worked in finance or have their investments built on funds driven by private-equity firms.  His flip-flop on same-sex marriage might play well in the Northeast and West Coast, but it’s likely to hurt him in the South, and that does culturally include Florida, especially in the north end of the state.  Inviting Mariela Castro to come to the US to lecture us on politics would just be icing on the cake with the Cuban expatriate community, which organizes and votes in strength in the Sunshine State.

The internals look pretty bleak for Obama.  The gender gap plays entirely to Romney’s advantage.  Obama only edges Romney among women 45/44, but Romney wins men 50/37.  Obama also only edges Romney among Hispanics 42/40, perhaps from the fallout over the Castro visa.  Independents give Romney an eight-point edge, and even worse, only 36% vote for the incumbent.

Don’t forget, too, that the March result was a bit of an outlier in this series.  Romney and Obama were in virtual ties in January, with Romney up 46/43 and tied 45/45 in two polls that month.  Three week ago, Romney was up one point.  Florida looks to have shifted significantly in three weeks, and that could be fatal to Obama’s re-election hopes.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Uncommitted would beat Zero.

Philly on May 23, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Add to it the latest mitt ad which is pretty darn good

Feeling cautiously optimistic

Go mitt

cmsinaz on May 23, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I can’t believe that Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado aren’t all going to all return red rather than return a socialist to office.

Marcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Florida looks to have shifted significantly in three weeks, and that could be fatal to Obama’s re-election hopes.

Please be true.

VegasRick on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Add to it the latest mitt ad which is pretty darn good

Feeling cautiously optimistic

Go mitt

cmsinaz on May 23, 2012 at 9:24 AM

ABO also, but feeling poll-lashed.

msupertas on May 23, 2012 at 9:27 AM

Florida is technically a swing state, but I’ve long thought that Romney would win it fairly easily. The GOP dominated there in 2010 and nothing has changed to push it back into Obama’s column. Plus the Republican convention will be held in Tampa, which could give Romney a marginal boost.

Doughboy on May 23, 2012 at 9:27 AM

This gives me a little more faith in the American electorate.

WisRich on May 23, 2012 at 9:28 AM

And the hits just keep on coming.

One of these days there will be some good news for 0bama.
Though, I hope the amount of bad news doesn’t change.

cozmo on May 23, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I really try not to get excited about polls. But I am optimistic about how they are appearing to trend as a whole.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 AM

All this means is that they need more shiny objects to distract the voters in Florida! At the rate of one every 10 days that’s 18 more to go before the election. Perhaps they should schedule one or two more just in case.

Fred 2 on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Preference cascade starting?

parteagirl on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 AM

where 63 percent of voters say the president’s support of same-sex marriage will not affect their vote

They’re still missing the point on this one. Obama came out and basically said “Uh, yeah, I’ve been lying to you fools for years”.

He’s a brazen liar and he thinks people are too stupid to notice. They’re noticing.

forest on May 23, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I’ll put my money on a Murder on the Orient Express explanation

Nice Agatha Christie reference! Romney is doing well. Keep cutting off the ring, Mitt!

ROMNEY 2012

cicerone on May 23, 2012 at 9:33 AM

I was just reading another news article about this lead by Romney in Florida, and the Leftmedia source was sure to define the surge in Romney support as coming from “the poor, the older generations/elderly, evangelicals…”

It’s a shame that to the Left, to Obama’s supporters, they can’t even acknowledge other Americans with any decency or respect, especially since that word, “respect,” is so important to them, or so they say.

Good for Romney. He’ll be an excellent President.

Go Gators.

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:34 AM

His flip-flop on same-sex marriage might play well in the Northeast and West Coast, but it’s likely to hurt him in the South, and that does culturally include Florida, especially in the north end of the state.

Gay marriage probably plays fine in the east coast of FL where most NE retirees land.

But the Midwest retirees tend to land on the Gulf side, and I suspect that gay marriage ain’t a priority for them over there.

BuckeyeSam on May 23, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I can’t believe that Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado aren’t all going to all return red rather than return a socialist to office.

Marcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

North Carolina is a lock for Romney. Florida shouldn’t be a problem either. I’m not so certain though about Nevada. They did vote Sandoval in as governor in 2010, but that Harry Reid reelection has me wary. Still, their economy is in the toilet, so you’d think Romney would be a slight favorite there. Colorado might be a lost cause though.

Doughboy on May 23, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Politico writes, resentfully…

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:37 AM

And the hits just keep on coming.

One of these days there will be some good news for 0bama.
Though, I hope the amount of bad news doesn’t change.

cozmo on May 23, 2012 at 9:31 AM

Like? Michelle filing for divorce again and he being free to move back to Indonesia again? Please elaborate.

msupertas on May 23, 2012 at 9:38 AM

I really try not to get excited about polls. But I am optimistic about how they are appearing to trend as a whole.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Exactly, it’s not the individual polls, it’s the trend, the way the polls are bending…and it is all good news for Republican’s.

right2bright on May 23, 2012 at 9:38 AM

thank you, may i have another..

gatorboy on May 23, 2012 at 9:38 AM

Time for Obama to pivot to abortion.

Oh, wait.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/154838/Pro-Choice-Americans-Record-Low.aspx

artist on May 23, 2012 at 9:39 AM

According to that Politico post:

President Obama’s same-sex marriage endorsement makes a full quarter of Florida voters less likely to cast their ballots for him, according to a poll released Monday.

Quinnipac’s latest poll of the Sunshine State finds that 25 percent of voters say Obama’s endorsement of gay marriage makes them less likely to vote for him. On the other hand, 11 percent say that it makes them more likely to vote for him.

Among independents, 23 percent say that they’re less likely to vote for Obama over same sex marriage. Older voters (55 and older), born-again evangelical Christians, lower income voters and military veterans are all more likely than other demographic groups to say that Obama’s backing of same-sex marriage will sway them towards Romney.

On the whole, Romney beats President Obama by six points in Florida, leading 47 to 41 percent over the incumbent president.

…so Leftwing Politico is either continuing to try to fan the issue-flames of ‘gay’ marriage or to smear Romney’s lead in Florida as being due to the “lesser in society” supporting him (and not supporting ‘gay’ marriage).

A win is a win is a win, I say.

Go Gators.

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:39 AM

No way my state is going for Barry this time around. Least the GOP seem to have picked a good spot to hold their convention.

Zaggs on May 23, 2012 at 9:40 AM

Be ware the Lame Duck President, my children. If One-bama looses in November he may decide that if he’s going down he will take everyone else with him.

Let’s not pop the champagne just yet.

NickDeringer on May 23, 2012 at 9:40 AM

They did vote Sandoval in as governor in 2010, but that Harry Reid reelection has me wary. Still, their economy is in the toilet, so you’d think Romney would be a slight favorite there. Colorado might be a lost cause though.

Doughboy on May 23, 2012 at 9:36 AM

To be fair, if we had nominated Lowden or Tarkanian instead of Sharron Angle, Harry Reid would still not be Senator. Grr…

GOPRanknFile on May 23, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Gay marriage probably plays fine in the east coast of FL where most NE retirees land…

BuckeyeSam on May 23, 2012 at 9:35 AM

No, actually, to the contrary, it’s only supported in the predictable areas of Miami-Lauderdale and Orlando. In other words, where there are homosexual and other Liberal populations.

Rest of the state continues to be third-generation Conservative which means they’re now called Moderate. But not Liberal.

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Advice to Mitt: Slow and steady will win the race. Economy, economy, and economy. Indeed, finesse the “job-creation” message by emphasizing that as president you’ll only create conditions for the job creators. Talk about smart regulation in all industries. Make fun of Obama’s pathetic attempts to micromanage the economy with ridiculous legislative bandaids. Point out that as long as Obama is wrong on energy, EPA regulation, and financial regulation, Obama can pass all the bullsh*t jobs tax credits he wants–they won’t improve anything.

Go Mitt.

BuckeyeSam on May 23, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Florida is, IMHO, un-pollable until much closer to the election. Some cell phones with Miami numbers still ring in New York City. It doesn’t mean Columbia Wymyn’s Studies Professor Screechy McLiberal hasn’t lost her Miami vacation condo back in ’10, and just had her Florida Voter Registration card returned to sender.

But then again, she may still be able to get her card, and still be registered in Miami-Dade. No way of knowing.

Sekhmet on May 23, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Obama would have taken 20% of the poll if Wolfe, Uncommited and Felon were included in the polling options..

hillsoftx on May 23, 2012 at 9:44 AM

BuckeyeSam on May 23, 2012 at 9:35 AM

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Sorry, Buckeye, I misread your comments earlier — took them to mean that you were suggesting that the gay thing was popular in the state, not limited to “East Coast” of Florida. I now see you meant about what I also meant in my 9:42 comments.

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I really try not to get excited about polls. But I am optimistic about how they are appearing to trend as a whole.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Yes, I feel the same. Better to have a slow build in Romney’s direction; it’s not good to have him peak too soon.

Even more than the polls, I am enjoying watching the clueless Obama campaign make one foolish error after the next. And every time they do, I am reminded of Obama’s 2008 statement that his inexperience wouldn’t be a problem because he would run the executive branch as brilliantly as he runs his campaigns . . . .

AZCoyote on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 AM

NickDeringer on May 23, 2012 at 9:40 AM

That is a big concern. But executive orders can be changed by executive orders.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 AM

This at least makes up for the infuriating poll out of PA from Rasmussen today.

gsherin on May 23, 2012 at 9:47 AM

And, take heart: there are a lot of HORSES and DOGS in Florida and all the people who own and love them.

Among others.

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:47 AM

It’s good to see Romney ahead in something other than a Rassmussen poll.

Abby Adams on May 23, 2012 at 9:49 AM

I was just reading another news article about this lead by Romney in Florida, and the Leftmedia source was sure to define the surge in Romney support as coming from “the poor, the older generations/elderly, evangelicals…”

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:34 AM

Last nights dismal Obama “wins” in Arkansas and Kentucky were chalked up in much the same way. Nevermind Uncommitted had a very good night in Kentucky and a TN lawyer won 40% of the Dem vote in Arkansas! Obama’s people have chalked it up to “insignificant” primaries where only poor white racists are involved.

Bottom line, Obama has a problem with his base and the longer that the idiots running his campaign dismiss it as racist bitter clingers the better.

Happy Nomad on May 23, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:42 AM

If you live there, I’ll defer. I attended an LL.M. program at UM in the 1990s, then lived in Miami for three years.

I should have been more specific. From the north down to Orlando, is more like Georgia. Orlando and its surrounding areas are probably a center-left oasis. South of Orlando, it’s probably pretty center right–all the way on the Gulf side, while on the Atlantic side at either Palm Beach County or Broward County it runs center-left. Miami is a little odd because you have some prominent gay areas, but you also have the Cubans, other Hispanics, and some old money. Finally, you have the Keys.

BuckeyeSam on May 23, 2012 at 9:50 AM

Obama would have taken 20% of the poll if Wolfe, Uncommited and Felon were included in the polling options..

hillsoftx on May 23, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Wanna bet that somebody in Kentucky is running around with a bumper sticker this morning “Don’t blame me, I voted for uncommitted.”

Happy Nomad on May 23, 2012 at 9:53 AM

It’s a secondary item, but don’t forget the hits to NASA.

The job losses are starting to hit home.

The_Jacobite on May 23, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Sorry, Buckeye, I misread your comments earlier — took them to mean that you were suggesting that the gay thing was popular in the state, not limited to “East Coast” of Florida. I now see you meant about what I also meant in my 9:42 comments.

Lourdes on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Lourdes, I think we’re on the same page. I should have been clearer, and you may know more precisely which ways the areas cut. Living down there was very odd for this Midwesterner, but I have to admit that it’s a fascinating state. I always liked the expression I first heard in the late 1990s: “In Florida, you have to go south to go north.”

BuckeyeSam on May 23, 2012 at 9:54 AM

Maybe its time for the Democrats to run uncommitted. At least uncommitted has no record.

I have said for months, Obama has very little chance to beat Romney. Romney will not say anything stupid, and neither will most of those evil “establishment” Republicans. Obama, his handlers, and most Democrats cannot help themselves. And DWS has been fairly quiet lately.

milcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:55 AM

To be fair, if we had nominated Lowden or Tarkanian instead of Sharron Angle, Harry Reid would still not be Senator. Grr…

GOPRanknFile on May 23, 2012 at 9:41 AM

Harry red had all the GA’s from the strip bused in to vote for him, that’s why he won. What he did not calculate was that most of them were hispanic and voted for Sandoval for gov, defeating harry’s son rory red in a landslide.

VegasRick on May 23, 2012 at 9:56 AM

To be fair, if we had nominated Lowden or Tarkanian instead of Sharron Angle, Harry Reid would still not be Senator. Grr…

GOPRanknFile on May 23, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I still don’t know why people state that as fact. Angle had her share of gaffes, but she didn’t run THAT bad of a campaign. Hell, right after her debate with Reid, a lot of pundits thought she’d clinched the election. And let’s not overlook the fact that Lowden and Tarkanian were lousy enough candidates to lose to Angle in the GOP primary in the first place.

The reason Harry Reid won was because he had a much better organization than Angle which was able to get out the vote in large numbers, particularly amongst unions.

Doughboy on May 23, 2012 at 9:56 AM

This at least makes up for the infuriating poll out of PA from Rasmussen today.

gsherin on May 23, 2012 at 9:47 AM

PA has always been a long shot. I’m not that optimistic about winning there. The trend is more important than the actual numbers and Romney is running somewhat close there and the overall trends are encouraging. We’re looking good.

GOPRanknFile on May 23, 2012 at 9:57 AM

This should help, too. Be sure to read what the doc from Duke Hospital has to say.Death panels are real.
http://themorningspew.com/2012/05/23/death-panels-for-men/

bloggless on May 23, 2012 at 9:58 AM

This swing in Florida is fairly expected by most. I know I’m not the only one who has pegged the state to be the next to shift hard toward Romney, as the Obama map retreats further into blue territory.

What most may want to notice though, is that many of the trends favoring Romney here, specifically those involving seniors, should very much apply to Pennsylvania as well.

Gingotts on May 23, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I can’t believe that Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado aren’t all going to all return red rather than return a socialist to office.

Marcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Florida looks to have shifted significantly in three weeks, and that could be fatal to Obama’s re-election hopes.

It won’t be fatal, but will severely limit his path to victory.

Obama losing Florida and North Carolina over the last few weeks puts Romney at 235. Start adding an Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), and/or Virginia (13) to that and Romney only needs another 4-7 EVs to win.

teke184 on May 23, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I still don’t know why people state that as fact. Angle had her share of gaffes, but she didn’t run THAT bad of a campaign. Hell, right after her debate with Reid, a lot of pundits thought she’d clinched the election. And let’s not overlook the fact that Lowden and Tarkanian were lousy enough candidates to lose to Angle in the GOP primary in the first place.

Angle was an awful candidate for the general election. The Tea Party has been responsible for some great candidates (Rubio, Haley, Paul, and others) but has also been culpable for some flops (Angle, O’Donnell, Buck). The TP fervor was at its highest at that time…that’s why Angle beat Lowden and Tarkanian…not because they were bad candidates.

The reason Harry Reid won was because he had a much better organization than Angle which was able to get out the vote in large numbers, particularly amongst unions.

Doughboy on May 23, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Yes. Harry Reid did have a better organization but because of Angle, many disaffected Dems and independents who otherwise would have stayed home, came out to vote for Reid (not too different than the Castle-O’Donnell-Coons dynamic). Also, exit polls showed Tarkanian running about even with Reid and Lowden actually beating him. Don’t get me wrong. I would have voted for Angle just because I despise Reid but as soon as Angle won the primary, I knew we had lost the general election. Angle looked and sounded like a crazy person.

GOPRanknFile on May 23, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

So now you resort to name-calling because another individual believes that four swing states will break Republican?

By chance if I were to care enough search around here for a while, would I find posts in your name claiming states like Georgia, South Carolina, and Arizona to be winnable for Obama?

Gingotts on May 23, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

What a little grump!

Chuck Schick on May 23, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I can’t believe that Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado aren’t all going to all return red rather than return a socialist to office.

Marcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

I’m saving this comment for an evening in November.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

…says the Moby tool!

KOOLAID2 on May 23, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Why didn’t you go after him on Florida and North Carolina too?

cozmo on May 23, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Obama losing Florida and North Carolina over the last few weeks puts Romney at 235. Start adding an Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10), and/or Virginia (13) to that and Romney only needs another 4-7 EVs to win.

teke184 on May 23, 2012 at 10:07 AM

I’m going to assume as the number is 235 that you aren’t including New Hampshire. Don’t let PPP fool you, NH is very much in play, if not as likely to break Romney as North Carolina. That means Ohio plus Virginia is victory.

Look at this very likely map, and Romney’s many paths to victory become quite clear. Even flipping NH to tossup, it’s still there.

Gingotts on May 23, 2012 at 10:15 AM

GOPRanknFile on May 23, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I know, but I’m originally from there(western PA) and don’t get how GOP wins Senate, Gov., and always has the majority at least 1 and sometimes both chambers of the state legislature, but struggles in presidential races. If they can’t win there this year with this sorry @ssed excuse for a leader we have now, then it may be hopeless unless they can sell the Philly area to NJ to make it a red state.

gsherin on May 23, 2012 at 10:15 AM

NickDeringer on May 23, 2012 at 9:40 AM

That is a big concern. But executive orders can be changed by executive orders.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 AM

That’s quite true but there are other things he could do. With someone as radical and narcissistic as Obama, I pray that our joint chiefs as well as Petraeus over at CIA will be willing to refuse any orders that would compromise or irreparably damage national security during his lame duck presidency. I put nothing past this traitor, particularly if there is a landslide voting him out.

TXUS on May 23, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Let’s get Boyd Crowder with his mullet to run against Obama, I think he’s got a chance.

vityas on May 23, 2012 at 10:19 AM

I know, but I’m originally from there(western PA) and don’t get how GOP wins Senate, Gov., and always has the majority at least 1 and sometimes both chambers of the state legislature, but struggles in presidential races. If they can’t win there this year with this sorry @ssed excuse for a leader we have now, then it may be hopeless unless they can sell the Philly area to NJ to make it a red state.

gsherin on May 23, 2012 at 10:15 AM

No, NJ is coming around too. Slowly, but it’s there. Sell Philly to Maryland; they’re hopeless.

Gingotts on May 23, 2012 at 10:20 AM

I live in the Tampa Bay region. Not seeing too many Obama bumper stickers… Well, not with a 12 on them anyway.

taternuggets on May 23, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Sure makes the GOP look smart for putting its convention in Florida, unlike the Democrats who have a disaster on their hands in North Carolina.

Florida is also still mired in a terrible housing slump. All of Obama’s half-assed loan modification schemes haven’t done anything in Florida. Home prices have fallen as much as 75% in some parts of the state. Thousands of construction and related workers have been unemployed for more than three years now. To say much of Florida is in a Depression is not exaggerating. And those parts that aren’t are dependent on the military and tourism, and a $500 billion cut in the Defense budget is not going over very well there, nor is $3.80 a gallon gasoline.

rockmom on May 23, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Ohio is the key, and Romney hasn’t been doing well there.

gumbyandpokey on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

Putting your childish response aside, Nevada should not be a blue state.

Reid barely won the state 2 years ago, and that was only after Republicans nominated an awful candidate, and what was more than likely some heavy voter fraud. Now, the voter fraud will be present again, but Obama has no ties to the state. Romney should win the mormon vote easily, and without a scandal-ridden Republican running for the Senate, and the decreased turn-out of Obama groups (as will be the case everywhere), Romney should win the state. It might not be by the 5-10 points he should win a state like North Carolina or Florida, but he should win by 2-4 points when all is said and done.

As for Colorado, it is a tricky state for Romney at the moment. But if this is a tide election, as it is shaping up to be, and states like Wisconsin and Florida will be safe Romney states, than the tide might be big enough to encompass a state like Colorado.

milcus on May 23, 2012 at 10:33 AM

Ohio is the key, and Romney hasn’t been doing well there.

gumbyandpokey on May 23, 2012 at 10:30 AM

I think Ohio is going to come around. The assault on the coal industry, support for Gay Marriage, as well as other economic factors should swing it to Romney. I’d give him a 3 in 4 chance of winning here.

buckeyerich on May 23, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Was in Vegas two weeks ago, and in the morning, you can’t sit through a commercial break without seeing ads from Obama. And these are long, really well done spots. Romney ads are non-existant.

I’m not sure how strong Romney is in NV, but if he wants to have a chance, he should get some spots on the air.

gumbyandpokey on May 23, 2012 at 10:40 AM

Obama also only edges Romney among Hispanics 42/40, perhaps from the fallout over the Castro visa.

Perhaps from the incident involving Obama’s “son”.

Go RBNY on May 23, 2012 at 10:43 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

As I laid out for you in the past Lib, Florida and Nevada only diverge when an anomaly occurs on the right, such as Ford and Perot.

Otherwise, they go hand-in-hand, for decades.

Barry has a 50K cushion in NV, which can easily be erased by election time.

…and you Lib, are the joke. Someone who comes day-after-day to a site they don’t agree with at all, just to fight, is a fullout loser.

budfox on May 23, 2012 at 10:49 AM

What was the D/R/I in this Q-poll?

Steve Z on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 AM

Ohio hasn’t been polled in a couple of weeks actually, and there Romney was down only 1. Far too soon to say he’s not doing well there, unless you’re the type that believes PPP/Kos when they do RV polling.

Gingotts on May 23, 2012 at 10:52 AM

“Comprehensive Immigration Reform”. Obama will crisscross the state talking about that. He sees it as his ace in the hole.

And he’ll use it liberally.

ButterflyDragon on May 23, 2012 at 10:55 AM

GO MITT!

This is welcome news. Mitt Romney is a wonderful man and will make an excellent president. Voters are seeing through Obama’s despicable, attempted character assassination of Romney.

Florida, the rest of the country is counting on you to help vote out Obama. You Floridians will be key!

bluegill on May 23, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Obama would have taken 20% of the poll if Wolfe, Uncommited and Felon were included in the polling options..

hillsoftx on May 23, 2012 at 9:44 AM

..exactly what I was thinking. Now if they had convicted John Edwards and he was starting him Fed jail time and was ambivalent about his political ambitions, we coulda had Silky Pony as an uncommitted, jailed felon lawyer as an opponent.

The War Planner on May 23, 2012 at 11:25 AM

What was the D/R/I in this Q-poll?

Steve Z on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 AM

31%/34%/29%

taternuggets on May 23, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Big knock on wood here, but strategically, I don’t see Obama’s path to releelection. Every single one of his attacks on Romney seems to blow up in his face and diminishes him in the process.

I’m really interested to see how these debates will go. They will undoubtely be “moderated” by left-wing partisans, but I don’t understand how Obama will be able to stand on his record.

Romney’s closing remarks should go like this: “Four years ago Obama said he would have this economy turned around, or it would be a one term proposition. If you think he has, vote for him. If you think we can do better than this, vote for me. If you elect me, I promise that in 4 years from now the vast majority of you will find yourself in a better station in life. If it appears that you have not, I will not seek reelection.”

The Count on May 23, 2012 at 12:05 PM

GO MITT!

This is welcome news. Mitt Romney is a wonderful man and will make an excellent president. Voters are seeing through Obama’s despicable, attempted character assassination of Romney.

Florida, the rest of the country is counting on you to help vote out Obama. You Floridians will be key!

bluegill on May 23, 2012 at 11:18 AM

Tampa here–I might see some of you in person in a few months.

Mitt Romney is a typical liberal RINO jerk who will do little for the conservative renewal of this country if elected and who generates tepid support in his own party. His purchase of the nomination was blatant and disgusting. That said, double-teamed wild horses with rocket assistance couldn’t keep me and many other Floridians from voting for him. Obama, like Carthage, must be destroyed. Florida will go GOP in November.

By the way, the Bain attacks now are just trial balloons. They’ll be subsiding soon. Obama is just gauging Mitt’s response. The real, deep, saturation Bain stuff comes in Sept-Oct, folks. Get ready. (I tried to tell you.) Also, watch out for a Wag the Dog foreign policy adventure this summer to nail down another million ignorant yahoos. Iran would do nicely.

spiritof61 on May 23, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Time for another whodunit, or more accurately, whatdunit in this presidential election.

Florida’s elderly vote based on their priorities. Have you seen the price of an early-bird dinner lately?

/

Flora Duh on May 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

I was going to write that there has been a nice move in the SurveyUSA poll in North Carolina, from +4 Obama to +1 Romney in three weeks. But now I see they changed from RV to LV; I don’t know the impact of that.

bobs1196 on May 23, 2012 at 12:16 PM

Gay marriage alone will make Florida an EASY win for Romney. Ask even a yellow-dog Democrat over the age of 70 what they think about gay marriage. That’s one area Democrats BADLY miscalculated, Senior Citizens are the most reliable voters and they are absolutely hostile to the idea of gay marriage and most of the swing states have a REALLY large amount of older voters.

The real battleground states will be Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Romney only has to peel off 2-3 to win, I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see him win all of them.

BradTank on May 23, 2012 at 12:17 PM

What was the D/R/I in this Q-poll?

Steve Z on May 23, 2012 at 10:51 AM

31%/34%/29%

taternuggets on May 23, 2012 at 11:43 AM

So apparently is 2010.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Key is not to implode here. Can’t wait to see the impact of the VP pick and if it’s Condi, then that gap is going to grow dramatically — particularly after the first Rice-Biden debate. That’s worth the price of admission right there!

BrunoMitchell on May 23, 2012 at 12:57 PM

I can’t believe that Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado aren’t all going to all return red rather than return a socialist to office.

Marcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Nevada and Colorado? You’re officially a fool.

libfreeordie on May 23, 2012 at 10:05 AM

But, without FL and NC, your fool still loses.

Schadenfreude on May 23, 2012 at 1:01 PM

That is a big concern. But executive orders can be changed by executive orders.

hawkdriver on May 23, 2012 at 9:45 AM

Treaties can not be changed. Watch Lugar, McCain and Obama, like 3 devils.

Schadenfreude on May 23, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Can we all agree there’s no need to phonetically spell Qwen…Quinee…Quena..that university’s name anymore in these articles?
Nevertheless, slow and steady, pounding the economy message – Go Mitt.

one free individual on May 23, 2012 at 1:18 PM

I don’t see the problem with the PA poll that some posters have mentioned. It puts Obama at 47-41 over Romney. It’s not good for Obama to be well below 50 in a deep blue state. Romney has plenty of upside especially among conservatives and the undecided will break for him. In contrast I don’t see how Obama’s numbers get much better as people have had plenty of time to make up their mind about him. A Romney win in PA is definitely possible and I would give it at least a 50% probability.

breffnian on May 23, 2012 at 2:12 PM

Funny how you mention the sampling in polls that favor Obama, but not that the unweighted sample in this one was 37% R, 29% D and 29% I. That kind of skews it in Romney’s favor by, oh, I don’t know, 6 points or so. FAIR AND BALANCED.

sob0728 on May 23, 2012 at 2:58 PM

I can’t believe that Florida, North Carolina, Nevada and Colorado aren’t all going to all return red rather than return a socialist to office.

Marcus on May 23, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I wouldn’t count on Colorado.

I’ll vote here the same way I did in 2008… against Obama (lets be honest, his campaign in 2008 told us he was going to do a lot of this stuff).

But with all the immigration we’ve gotten from California the state has shifted to more blue… a lot more blue.

Once they leave California they go “Hey, we had all this stuff in CA, we need to force the government to fund the same crap here”.

I may move again if CO follows CA… sadly I suspect it will.

They just have to remove the tax/spend restrictions that the voters put in place so they can up taxes and spending drastically without a public vote and they’ll be 90% of the way there.

gekkobear on May 23, 2012 at 3:24 PM

I wouldn’t count on Colorado.

I’ll vote here the same way I did in 2008… against Obama (lets be honest, his campaign in 2008 told us he was going to do a lot of this stuff).

But with all the immigration we’ve gotten from California the state has shifted to more blue… a lot more blue.

Once they leave California they go “Hey, we had all this stuff in CA, we need to force the government to fund the same crap here”.

I actually think Colorado is more conservative than people think, it’s just had some really bad luck the last few election cycles.

In 2010, the Governor’s race was a train wreck, it was some TeaTard candidate that ended up endorsing the Democrat before the election was even over, and then there was Ken Buck (also from the Christine O’Donnell wing of the Party) that cost us an easy Senate seat.

Also, a few VERY wealthy left-wingers over the last few years threw a whole lotta a money at liberal causes and candidates while the state GOP was in shambles. The Democrats really gained a big foothold there, but it looks as if that’s waning considerably.

Colorado actually has more registered Republicans than Democrats, it’s still a winnable state for Romney.

BradTank on May 23, 2012 at 3:49 PM

Libfree getting worried ……

Lovin it.

*those welfare checks will be ending soon.

CW on May 23, 2012 at 5:56 PM