WaPo/ABC poll shows dead heat between Romney, Obama …

posted at 8:41 am on May 22, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Barack Obama only three points ahead of Mitt Romney, 49/46, within the margin of error.  The poll also shows Obama’s advantage among women dissipating, and the President falling further behind his challenger on the economy.  All of this is rather amazing, given the manner in which Republicans keep shrinking in the sample series:

After months of aggressive campaigning on jobs and the economy, President Obama and Mitt Romney, his likely Republican challenger, are locked in a dead heat over who could fix the problem foremost on voters’ minds, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The parity on economic issues foreshadows what probably will continue to be a tough and negative campaign. Overall, voters would be split 49 percent for Obama and 46 percent for Romney if the November election were held now. On handling the economy, they are tied at 47 percent.

Despite flare-ups over issues including contraception and same-sex marriage, more than half of all Americans cite the economy as the one concern that will decide their vote in the fall, relegating others — such as health care, taxes and the federal deficit — to single-digit status.

In other words, the shiny-object distraction strategy from Team Obama hasn’t worked out as planned.  Neither has the sample strategy from the WaPo/ABC pollster.  Today’s D/R/I is 32/22/38, which means this model would only be predictive for a turnout model where only 22% of voters are Republican.  Just to remind readers, the 2008 turnout split from exit polls showed a 39/32/29 split, and that was considered a nadir for Republican turnout.  In the 2010 midterms, the split was 35/35/30.

Take a close look at the Republican representation in WaPo/ABC polls this year. Starting in January, that has been 25%, 23%, 27%, 23%, and now 22%.  The pollster seems incapable of finding a representative number of Republicans for this poll series.  Perhaps that should give the two news organizations involved a hint about finding a new pollster.

Even with this poor sampling, though, Obama can’t gain any momentum.  His job approval dropped in this series from 50/45 to 47/49.  His rating on the economy sank to 42/55, not as bad as March’s 38/59 but slipping from last month’s 44/54.  Among all adults (as in the preceding figures), Obama only leads Romney by 4, 49/45 — and a Democrat who can’t get to 50% among general-population adults is in serious trouble.  The 49/46 comes from registered voters, with its substantial handicap among Republicans.

How important, by the way, was gay marriage to voters in this poll?  A whopping 1% think it’s the most important issue.  In contrast, “morals/family values” went up from 3% in January to 5% in May.  “Health care/repealing ObamaCare” also increased, from 3% in January to 7% in May, but it came in a very distant second to the economy and jobs, which took 52%.  So much for the distraction strategy, indeed.


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Comment pages: 1 2

Did angryed get banned?

steebo77 on May 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I don’t think so, but after he went completely off the rails last week by demeaning our military and denegrating military service and felt the full wrath of Hot Airians for it, I think even he realized that his credibility and future here on HA was shot, and he’s sulking in the basement sucking his thumb. Good riddance.

Trafalgar on May 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

He is watching Obama flail about, no need to step up the hard line campaign…there is no doubt Mitt can play hardball, look what he did to Newt, and tried to do to Rick (until Rick slapped him down).
Mitt needs to hold back, we have several months, and the best comes out the last 12 weeks…Obama’s record is dismal, it is too early to start the smack down now, people will tire of it and start defending Obama.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Smacking down Republicans =/= smacking down Obama. I hope you’re right. I’d love nothing more than to see Romney give Obama a righteous a$$ kicking, but I’m legitimately worried that’s not going to happen. I guess we’ll see.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

I wouldn’t put it past these disreputable outlets to have a strategy meeting that determines the results before one person is polled.

Happy Nomad on May 22, 2012 at 9:31 AM

It’s not complicated. Just call people, then stop when you get a number you like. It could go 200 people, or 500 people.

faraway on May 22, 2012 at 9:49 AM

You don’t have to take my disdain for Mitt so personally. When it comes time to cast my vote, I’m still a reluctant, grudging ABO.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

I don’t care about your disdain of Romney, but you respond with a personal stupid remark to another blogger, than you get one back…get it?
I have no love for Romney, except I see him as our only alternative to get rid of Obama…that makes him a valuable piece of real estate.
If he is strong, we get the Senate and retain control of the house…and with that, we get some justices for many years that will have a huge impact for decades.
I don’t care about Romney…I want to stop the insanity…

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Did angryed get banned?

steebo77 on May 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I think he came to the realization that his candidate was in trouble when the only poll showing Obama lookin’ pretty was the one of two pollsters he’s been rippin’ for its inaccuracy and bias.

GOPRanknFile on May 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

So, when polled, voters are uncertain/unsettled in their party ID before the election but certain/settled in their party ID afterwards?

The Count on May 22, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I should add, if you’re looking at exit polls to get the party breakdown, voters are probably less willing to misreport their official party registration in person, minutes after casting a vote as a member of a particular party than over the phone months before the election. Let me ask you a question now: how was WaPo/ABC able to accurately predict the last election despite (per Ed from the article I linked) under-sampling Republicans?

RightOFLeft on May 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I guess we’ll see.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

It won’t be how we would want…but Romney is pretty good in debates, and I have to say, he thinks on his feet much better than Obama.
Mitt can get pretty nasty, arrogant and nasty…the press will play on that, that he is “arrogant”, what we will have to see is how the public perceives him.
But you have to admit…right now, it’s Obama who is making the mistakes, and best for Mitt to allow him to continue.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

“If they call a random sample of voters, and only 22% self-report that they’re Republicans, that’s the data they have to go with.”

Uh, why? Why do they have to go with it? Is there some sort of “polling police” that makes them?

Why wouldn’t the pollsters attempt to create a sample that at least vaguely resembled the political makeup of the general populace?

The makeup of the the polling base is junk for this poll. It serves no purpose, other than to be used as propaganda for the earflaps junta.

GrassMudHorsey on May 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

I’m merely asserting that “he’s not Obama” isn’t going to be enough to generate enthusiasm in the folks that Romney should be trying to exctie (and apparently isn’t).

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:45 AM

It’s enough for me! Seriously, anybody who hasn’t been in a coma or teaching in NC schools the last three years should be motivated merely by wresting the nation out of the hands of unabashed communists, socialists, and criminals. It isn’t just Obama, it is also Mooch who keeps lecturing about how fat we are, Eric Holder whose department delivers anything but justice, Tim Geithner, Janet Nepolitano, Kathleen Sebelius, etc.

To suggest that Romney has to be an entertainer first and a leader second is misplaced priorities. What I do need from him as the election rolls along are the details for just how he intends to repeal Obamacare, what he thinks about nuclear disarmament, where he stands on our relations with our traditional allies, etc. These are the important issues not whether or not he can go into stand-up comedy if the President thing doesn’t work out.

Happy Nomad on May 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

It’s called “push polling.” It happens.
gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:32 AM

EVERY poll the media publish is a push poll.

Internal polls — either by campaigns, news networks or any other business — may be done to learn about their market. But those results are trade secrets. When polls get published; it’s always done to advance a cause.

Think about it: does even the most mindless airhead in the world (and bear in mind that’s saying a Hell of a lot) tune into ABC News because he wants to find out what he believed last week? Of course not; they’re telling him what the collective believes this week; and, by implication, what he should believe too.

logis on May 22, 2012 at 9:56 AM

Here is a YouTube video of the city-wide volunteer effort to find Mickey Shunick. Thousands are helping now.

Bring Mickey home!

cane_loader on May 22, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I don’t care about Romney…I want to stop the insanity…

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

I’m not sure that Romney WILL stop the insanity. Slow it down? Absolutely. Stop it? I’m not convinced. And if I’ve said it once I’ve said it a million times: It’s Romney’s job to convince the voters. The worst thing he can do is behave as if he’s already got it locked up just because Barack Obama is his opponent, and yet that’s exactly what I see happening.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

It’s not complicated. Just call people, then stop when you get a number you like. It could go 200 people, or 500 people.

faraway on May 22, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Exactly…they see the way the poll is moving…if it’s the wrong way, they pull the plug, if it is going the way they support they continue.
You can tell by how Obama is acting what the internals are…he is the one trying “new” ideas, floating whatever they can think of to find a hook, and it is failing badly…this has just started and Obama can’t find any traction, any one idea that is gaining support.
He may try more foreign policy stuff, since that is Mitt’s weakness, and it is complicated and slow moving enough Obama might be able to spin it how he needs to spin it.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

I hope you’re right. I’d love nothing more than to see Romney give Obama a righteous a$$ kicking, but I’m legitimately worried that’s not going to happen. I guess we’ll see.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:48 AM

.
Well don’t hold your breath. Super Mitt- aka Mr. Nice Guy, is not looking for red meat. Again, he actually believes he is the better qualified candidate to be President, and can make his case with out provoking the liberal media distortion machine- (who is best at mind controlling the Kardashian voters who will decide this thing.)

Only those with reservations about the Mittigator think he still needs to roll in the mud with the Bama. Mittens knows tha’ts a losing game anyway.

FlaMurph on May 22, 2012 at 9:59 AM

To suggest that Romney has to be an entertainer first and a leader second is misplaced priorities. What I do need from him as the election rolls along are the details for just how he intends to repeal Obamacare, what he thinks about nuclear disarmament, where he stands on our relations with our traditional allies, etc. These are the important issues not whether or not he can go into stand-up comedy if the President thing doesn’t work out.

Happy Nomad on May 22, 2012 at 9:55 AM

Where have I ever said that I want Romney to be an entertainer? I don’t see him being a leader, either! I want him to prove to me beyond a reasonable doubt that he is exactly the kind of anti-Obama diametrically opposed to the status quo that his supporters assert he is! And I’m sorry, but when I ask how I’m supposed to know what Romney stands for and his supporters point me to his website, I can’t help myself; I blanch! That just can’t possibly bode well for the Romney campaign!

For the love of God, Mitt, you have my vote! Now don’t take me for granted! Don’t take my fellow conservatives for granted! Not-Obama isn’t enough! We need the opposite of Obama, the anti-Obama! America is ready!

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:02 AM

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Obama is so out of control, removing him will stop the insanity, especially if we win the Senate…it will be a wake up call.
Now what is put in place may not be ideal…but it won’t be anything like what is in Obama’s pipeline.
Obama’s himself is specifically the problem…the dems are forced to support whatever lame idea he comes up with…but even that (Bain as an example) is so bad that his most loyal subjects are backing away.

It’s like a drunk driver, you get him off the road where he can’t do anymore damage…but now what do you do with him and his family in the car?

We can pull Obama out of the White House, but what do we do with the rest of his policies that are in place…but the most important thing is get him off the road of destruction.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Take a close look at the Republican representation in WaPo/ABC polls this year. Starting in January, that has been 25%, 23%, 27%, 23%, and now 22%. The pollster seems incapable of finding a representative number of Republicans for this poll series. Perhaps that should give the two news organizations involved a hint about finding a new pollster.

Much like other people have said, this is one of two things-

Lazy pollsters OR an attempt to cook the numbers in a way favorable to Barry.

I’m leaning toward #2 and, even with an insanely lopsided sample, Barry’s not outside the margin of error. That means Barry’s in HUGE trouble now and will only have so long before the average person starts getting a whiff of inevitable defeat coming off him.

teke184 on May 22, 2012 at 10:06 AM

The search for Mickey Shunick is in the DailyMail, now.

More photos, so you can see what she looks like.

LINK

cane_loader on May 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Romney is already under Obama’s skin.

And, any poll from ABC, NBC, WAPO should be held at arm’s length just because of their ulterior motives.

Though I also think that Romney/GOP is far more popular heading into this election than the Leftmedia will ever acknowledge.

Lourdes on May 22, 2012 at 8:53 AM

It won’t help turnout in the election for Obama if his supporters are overconfident. Obama’s best chances are if they show him somewhat behind. Then the Demonrats might rally to him.

Gladtobehere on May 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

GrassMudHorsey on May 22, 2012 at 9:54 AM

It worked, didn’t it? That’s the simplest way I can think of to answer your question.

RightOFLeft on May 22, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Obama is so out of control, removing him will stop the insanity, especially if we win the Senate…it will be a wake up call.
Now what is put in place may not be ideal…but it won’t be anything like what is in Obama’s pipeline.
Obama’s himself is specifically the problem…the dems are forced to support whatever lame idea he comes up with…but even that (Bain as an example) is so bad that his most loyal subjects are backing away.

It’s like a drunk driver, you get him off the road where he can’t do anymore damage…but now what do you do with him and his family in the car?

We can pull Obama out of the White House, but what do we do with the rest of his policies that are in place…but the most important thing is get him off the road of destruction.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 10:03 AM

I don’t share your optimism. I intend to hold Mitt’s feet to the fire now, post-convention, and (assuming that he wins) after the election. I am not going to accept violence done to my principles simply because the man in the White House doesn’t hate America with the same white-hot passion that Obama did.

I think you and I agree on far more than we disagree, R2B. But I’m fatigued. I’m just tired of all the equivocating and political calculating, of all the stump speeches and pretty words coming from both sides of the aisle from people that don’t know enough about what real liberty is to give a shit about it.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:09 AM

Then the Demonrats might rally to him.

It depends how he’s viewed by the party.

The Ed Rendells, Harold Fords, and Corey Bookers are already undercutting his attacks and the massive FAIL caused by Obamacare in 2010 can’t be sitting well with a lot of Dems at various levels.

They may decide it’s better to be rid of him and live to fight another day than sacrificing their careers to prop him up.

teke184 on May 22, 2012 at 10:12 AM

WaPo/ABC poll shows dead heat between Romney, Obama …

…like 2 Foxes polling people about the Chicken House!

KOOLAID2 on May 22, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Mitt is not a conservative, but he is not a wimp…again look how he took it to Newt, that was about as dirty of campaigning as you could get…tried it with Rick but Rick put him in his place.
Mitt has, or at least has hired, the men to run a tough campaign, but right now he is building his bank account, picking and choosing…after the conventions, that is where we will see what he has.
Right now, it’s the first rounds and they are circling the ring looking for the weakness…and so far Obama is punching the air and stumbling around the ring.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:47 AM

I remember exactly what Mitt did to Newt and Santorum as do many conservatives. Mitt smeared both of them and it was disgusting.

That’s why it burns me when he repudiates conservatives trying to help him for even thinking of using Rev. Wright ads. The difference is the Rev Wright thing is 100% legitimate and relevant to who Obama is. But that’s out of bounds, while smearing conservatives is ok??

I’m supporting Mitt b/c we need to defeat Obama. Believe me that last thing I wanted was Mitt as the nominee, but I’m willing to not only vote for him, but make phone calls, write letters, donate etc… However when Mitt repudiates my kind it gives me second thoughts about putting in so much effort to support him.

Finally, by repudiating the Rev Wright thing, Romney has taken the issue off the table and handcuffed himself for the remainder of the campaign. What if things really heat up in the fall? What if Obama seeks to even lower levels pulling out all kind of dirt on Mitt and getting people to fall for it? But Rev. Wright being bribed isn’t relevant?

Good job Mitt!

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Though I don’t see Romney getting California and New York, at this time.

cozmo on May 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM

…there is no cure…for the disease there!

KOOLAID2 on May 22, 2012 at 10:23 AM

WaPo/ABC poll shows dead heat between Romney, Obama …

… it gives them the opportnity to redefine Critical Race Theory.

PolAgnostic on May 22, 2012 at 10:24 AM

The REAL poll numbers must be pretty bad to shrink the Republican participation to ’22′ in order to get Barry to just squeak by.

GarandFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:25 AM

Did angryed get banned?

steebo77 on May 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM

I think he came to the realization that his candidate was in trouble when the only poll showing Obama lookin’ pretty was the one of two pollsters he’s been rippin’ for its inaccuracy and bias.

GOPRanknFile on May 22, 2012 at 9:51 AM

Yep, that would be Rasmussen. And another thing that probably sent Mister Ed out to pasture was that his favorite number-cruncher, Nate Silver of the NY Times-who gave Mister Ed his anti-Rasmussen Talking Points-said last week that he saw the tide turning.

Del Dolemonte on May 22, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Yawn! another poll

gerrym51 on May 22, 2012 at 10:29 AM

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:18 AM
gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:09 AM

I hear ya!
It tough to swallow and accept a non-conservative approach to our problems.
Mitt and his minions do not care about conservative values, conservative state rights, and his record shows it.
But to win the Senate, House, and White House…the problem is, and the three of us agree…will it be the same only different?
Will he diminish the power of the EPA? Probably not, let alone dismantle it…but will he get the pipeline, and the right energy policies back on line, probably will, but with the EPA.
Those are the things that distress me, when we had an opportunity to place someone in their that would make those changes…alas—

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

And BTW; Wasn’t Bain the chick on the Mission: Impossible TV series? Rixon on May 22, 2012 at 8:45 AM

I think he was one of Batman’s nemeses.

Akzed on May 22, 2012 at 9:12 AM

Barbara Bain, the lovely wife of Martin Landau, was a regular on Mission Impossible for several years with her husband Martin.

Gladtobehere on May 22, 2012 at 10:31 AM

How does Ed explain Obama’s three point lead in Rasmussen? Liberal bias?

libfreeordie on May 22, 2012 at 9:08 AM

It’s not bias it’s static, the past 2 weeks Romney was beating him. By the end of the week Romney will be up by 1 or 3 again

Conservative4ev on May 22, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I’m not sure that Romney WILL stop the insanity. Slow it down? Absolutely. Stop it? I’m not convinced. And if I’ve said it once I’ve said it a million times: It’s Romney’s job to convince the voters. The worst thing he can do is behave as if he’s already got it locked up just because Barack Obama is his opponent, and yet that’s exactly what I see happening.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

This insanity has been building strength for 80 years. No, Mitt is not going to stop it, no one alive could. The fundamental laws of physics are damned difficult to overcome. While on one hand you have,

1) A body in motion tends to remain in motion unless acted on by an outside force

There is also

2) A beam of energy can always be deflected.

A group of dedicated Marxist intellectuals infiltrated America covertly back in the early 1900′s. They began the take over of America’s academic institutes and Media complex. By the late 60′s they began the infiltration of America’s political power structure. Today those Marxist’s control the Democrat Party and a sizable portion of the GOP leadership.

That is what Mitt Romney is up against. A highly entrenched Marxist/Socialist political class which has given us Barack Obama, a committed Marxist ideologue. So no, Mitt is not going to stop the insanity all by himself. If that insanity is going to be stopped, it’s going to be stopped by grassroots organizations like the various and sundry TEA Parties.

Mitt Romney is not a genuine Conservative, just a Conservative leaning Moderate, but what he is not, is a Marxist/Socialist. Unfortunately, like the vast majority of American’s I believe that Mitt Romney suffers from the delusion that “It can’t happen here” with regards to a Marxist Coup.

As a result there is little to no chance that he will take the massive sweeping reforms that would be required to eliminate the Marxist’s who have entrenched themselves in every unelected level of government bureaucracy.

We the People will have to get rid of the Marxist/Socialist politicians, getting rid of the unelected Marxist/Socialist government bureaucrats is going to be a whole lot harder.

SWalker on May 22, 2012 at 10:34 AM

With or without a direct hand in the campaign, the Karl Rove Effect is already dragging the GOP side down.

If you want a 51-49 win or a 51-49 loss with a coin flip between them then Karl’s your man.

If you want principles, the chance for a landslide and a mandate then avoid Kowardly Karl at all costs.

jangle12 on May 22, 2012 at 10:36 AM

I hear ya!
It tough to swallow and accept a non-conservative approach to our problems.
Mitt and his minions do not care about conservative values, conservative state rights, and his record shows it.
But to win the Senate, House, and White House…the problem is, and the three of us agree…will it be the same only different?
Will he diminish the power of the EPA? Probably not, let alone dismantle it…but will he get the pipeline, and the right energy policies back on line, probably will, but with the EPA.
Those are the things that distress me, when we had an opportunity to place someone in their that would make those changes…alas—

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

One of my conservative coworkers whom I respect, he told me the other day he was voting for Virgil Green as he can’t bring himself to vote for Mitt.

I tried to argue and make the case that doing so is basically voting for Obama. That as bad as Mitt is he’s not a Marxist and we will have a chance to recover with Mitt, but not with Obama.

Still I couldn’t get through to him, there are alot of conservatives like him.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:37 AM

With or without a direct hand in the campaign, the Karl Rove Effect is already dragging the GOP side down.

If you want a 51-49 win or a 51-49 loss with a coin flip between them then Karl’s your man.

If you want principles, the chance for a landslide and a mandate then avoid Kowardly Karl at all costs.

jangle12 on May 22, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Karl Rove’s work with the Bushes made him prominent. The problem with the modern GOP is that Rove is emblematic of their professional political advisors. Everyone in the GOP thinks they can find success with Rovian principles the same way W did.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:38 AM

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 10:30 AM

One of my conservative coworkers whom I respect, he told me the other day he was voting for Virgil Green as he can’t bring himself to vote for Mitt.

I tried to argue and make the case that doing so is basically voting for Obama. That as bad as Mitt is he’s not a Marxist and we will have a chance to recover with Mitt, but not with Obama.

Still I couldn’t get through to him, there are alot of conservatives like him.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:37 AM

It’s not your job to get through to him, it’s Mitt’s! Mitt is the guy running the campaign. Mitt is the guy who isn’t sealing the deal with a certain segment of the GOP electorate. And Mitt is the guy who will win or lose on his own merits in November.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:42 AM

WaPo really wants that title of the most biased news organization in America.

What they are doing is absolutely pathetic. Doesn’t anyone who works there think this cheerleading is getting ridiculous?

milcus on May 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

It’s not your job to get through to him, it’s Mitt’s! Mitt is the guy running the campaign. Mitt is the guy who isn’t sealing the deal with a certain segment of the GOP electorate. And Mitt is the guy who will win or lose on his own merits in November.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:42 AM

I disagree. I think it’s my job and the job of all conservatives to sell Mitt to others. It is what it is now.

I don’t want my daughter growing up in a socialist ruin. I want her to have the same opportunities I did. Obama must be defeated. If other good conservatives stay home b/c of Mitt then that hurts all of us in the long run.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

I disagree. I think it’s my job and the job of all conservatives to sell Mitt to others. It is what it is now.

I don’t want my daughter growing up in a socialist ruin. I want her to have the same opportunities I did. Obama must be defeated. If other good conservatives stay home b/c of Mitt then that hurts all of us in the long run.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:47 AM

All true as far as it goes, and I understand that you have to be able to sleep at night and look at yourself in the mirror. But I’m telling you, I just don’t view the possibility of Mitt’s loss as a failure of the electorate. I view it as Mitt’s failure to own, and by extension a product of a royal clusterf**k of a nomination process. There are some people to whom keeping Mitt out of the White House is simply more important than getting Obama out. All the cajoling and pleading and debating in the world isn’t going to change that for most of them.

gryphon202 on May 22, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Though I don’t see Romney getting California and New York, at this time.

cozmo on May 22, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Don’t be so sure about that. California has several thing’s that are going to come into play that Obama has screwed up royally.

A) It was the Black population that overwhelming opposed Same Sex Marriage in California, Obama just stuck his finger in their eye. (Funny how the Media has failed to report on that)

B) 36 Percent of California’s legal resident’s are Hispanic, the majority of which are also devout practicing Catholics, (I don’t think it was his finger he stuck in their eye)

C) California has a very sizable and politically active Mormon Community. (Their going to vote for Romney for obvious reasons)

Despite the criminal manner in which the democrat party has managed to gerrymander California to give them an unfair advantage in the voting arena California has a very sizable Conservative population. (Somewhere in the neighborhood of 43 percent of Californian’s are Conservatives, pretty much in line with the overall national statistics)

It is extremely unlikely that California will reproduce it’s 60 percent vote for Obama from 2008. Moreover, in what is very likely to be one of the funnest political blunder’s in America history, California Democrat lawmaker’s put the popular vote take all Elector’s in law here last year, meaning that should Mitt Romney get the popular Vote in California the Democrat Lawmaker’s heads are going to explode trying to not award Mitt all 55 of California’s Electoral College Vote.

Stay Tuned folks, California is not anywhere near as close to a lock for Obama as the Fifth Column Treasonous Media and the Democrat’s want you to think it it.

SWalker on May 22, 2012 at 10:51 AM

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/article/new-allegation-rev-wright-needs-answer/555561

Shame on you Mitt for repudiating this!!

The American people deserve an answer from Obama about the supposed bribe ( I think 100% he tried to bribe Wright to shut up).

SOunds like the same thing John Edwards may go to jail over!

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 10:53 AM

The assumption here is that if Mitt Romney wins, he will perform exactly as he had to in the past to become Governor of a fairly liberal state. Not a good basis to estimate performance as President of the United States, a center-right Nation.

All the ‘Hardcore Conservatives’ better come to grips with this fact; The race for President has two, and ONLY two candidates. You must choose one of the candidates, as a non, or third-party vote is a de-facto vote for the incumbent.

When making the planet, apparently God had a choice between round and fair…guess how that went. You want to create a viable third-party option, great. Go to it. But that’s not a part of THIS election cycle, so vote for anyone other than Mitt Romney, or not at all, and you’re voting for Obama.

(Full Disclosure: I lean Libertarian, and there’s something that gives me the creeps about Romney, but then I look at Obie and his abhorrent spouse, and ‘the creeps’ are overtaken by ‘ultimate fear and loathing’)

a5minmajor on May 22, 2012 at 11:06 AM

It’s called trying to get Obama re-elected by discouraging Republican voters. Might have worked twenty years ago.

msupertas on May 22, 2012 at 8:55 AM

No, I think there is another reason … money. The election periods are a money maker for the news media. They have an interest in making the race appear to be close all the way down to the wire even if it isn’t really close. They need to attract eyeballs to ads, you don’t get as many eyeballs if your polling shows one candidate with a 6 point lead and pulling away. If you show a neck and neck race, people watch.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

A BIG IDEA:

If like me you are sick and tired of the MSM putting out their incredibly underweighted Republican polling, here is an idea. Of course I wouldn’t even care except that the MSM uses this bogus polling as propaganda to lead the news cycle.

We need a Polling Czar. The purpose of the Polling Czar would be to accurately determine on a monthly basis what the party affiliation breakdown of America is and the all pollsters MUST by law use those percentages in their poll weightings. This way all polls are apples and apples and we remove the propaganda value.

mitchellvii on May 22, 2012 at 11:25 AM

Stay Tuned folks, California is not anywhere near as close to a lock for Obama as the Fifth Column Treasonous Media and the Democrat’s want you to think it it.

SWalker on May 22, 2012 at 10:51 AM

No doubt, that is why the caveat “at this time” was in there.

If the tide turns, it could be a Reaganesque blowout. I sure would like to see one. Something to keep Romney on the right side of the equation and put fear into all the other squishes.

cozmo on May 22, 2012 at 11:26 AM

a5minmajor on May 22, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Yes, there is a larger picture that many of what you call ‘Hardcore Conservatives’ don’t seem to realize. Romney was governor in a state where his party was greatly overwhelmed in the legislature. There is no possible way he could veto legislation that the legislature wanted to pass. In fact, he did veto many bills, only to have his vetoes overridden. Romney issued about 800 vetoes when he was Governor of MA. About 700 of those vetoes were overridden.

Romneycare, for example, wasn’t so much Romneycare as it was GeneralCourtCare because many of the features of the legislation that have conservatives riled weren’t proposed by Romney, they were proposed by the General Court (the MA Legislature), Romney vetoed them, and the legislature added them back in over his veto.

Romney’s performance in the office of President would be quite different IF we can get him a Republican Senate.

What you see from his performance in MA is his performance with a legislature that is 85% Democrat and which Republicans could not possible offer any support.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I think that Romney’s supporters need to read Philip Klein’s piece today. Maybe they can gain some perspective. Maybe not. I’m pretty sure that they’d rather be blinded by the narrative – so much like Obama’s supporters in 2008 it’s scary.

besser tot als rot on May 22, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Romney was governor in a state where his party was greatly overwhelmed in the legislature. There is no possible way he could veto legislation that the legislature wanted to pass. In fact, he did veto many bills, only to have his vetoes overridden. Romney issued about 800 vetoes when he was Governor of MA. About 700 of those vetoes were overridden.

Romneycare, for example, wasn’t so much Romneycare as it was GeneralCourtCare because many of the features of the legislation that have conservatives riled weren’t proposed by Romney, they were proposed by the General Court (the MA Legislature), Romney vetoed them, and the legislature added them back in over his veto.

Romney’s performance in the office of President would be quite different IF we can get him a Republican Senate.

What you see from his performance in MA is his performance with a legislature that is 85% Democrat and which Republicans could not possible offer any support.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Romney never says that RomneyCare was “the best we could do in MA.” So your whole premise is based on your projection.

besser tot als rot on May 22, 2012 at 11:40 AM

I’ve yet to hear Romney say that RomneyCare was much more statist than he wanted. I’ve heard him defend it as fundamentally conservative, however. I’ve seen him standing on a big podium with a big grin on his face as he signed it into law. I might have bought that it was the best he could have done in MA had he said it last year, but he didn’t. And he still doesn’t. Protestations that “it was the best he could do in MA because of the liberal legislature” are non sequiturs.

besser tot als rot on May 22, 2012 at 11:44 AM

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 11:38 AM

This whole “700 were overridden” is getting old, most of it was inconsequential…only two items of any consequence, and neither one did he put up much of a fight.
One was for illegal’s, and he accepted (without veto) the compromise the other had to do with abortion, and he accepted the compromise on that…obviously since he appointed an abortion advocate to oversee that portion…
It was his bill, he owns it, he signed it…own up to it.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 11:48 AM

I always find it interesting how often Romney’s most ardent supporters use the term “conservative” (in one form or another) as a pejorative.

besser tot als rot on May 22, 2012 at 12:02 PM

Real Clear moved Michigan to “Toss Up” status. Are there 10% more registered Democratic voters in MI than Republicans like there is in this poll with a toss up result?

If Obama loses a place like Michigan, he will lose.

KW64 on May 22, 2012 at 12:04 PM

He may try more foreign policy stuff, since that is Mitt’s weakness, and it is complicated and slow moving enough Obama might be able to spin it how he needs to spin it.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 9:58 AM

Well, since Joe Biden predicted that in the first 6 months of the Obama presidency there would be “an international crisis, a generated crisis, to test the mettle of [Obama],” we’re probably due for one in the final 6 months.

Gird your loins.

de rigueur on May 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Gird your loins.

de rigueur on May 22, 2012 at 12:05 PM

Are we finally gonna’ get that war with Canada?

That’s about 0bama’s speed.

cozmo on May 22, 2012 at 12:15 PM

The problem with going after ‘O’ for Jeremiah Wright is that it wasn’t ‘O’ that made the church services decision. It’s always the wife that makes that decision. Especially when children come into the picture. It was Michelle that wanted her two girls to be raised hearing the vitriol coming from Wright. Meanwhile, the ‘O’ had visions of his golf game dancing through his head; i.e. he was barely listening. Michelle, however, absorbed everything.

It becomes a HUGE problem to chase the trail of Wright when it ultimately leads to Michelle.

Carnac on May 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM

If Obama loses a place like Michigan, he will lose.

KW64 on May 22, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Romney needs to won Ohio and Florida. That’s the ball game.

However, making a play for Wisconsin and Michigan is not a bad idea for Romney. It’s not a total fantasy like Pennsylvania – we saw how the Lake Superior districts all turned from Blue to Red in ’10, and they just might hold. But by forcing Obama to actually contest those states, Romney opens the door a little bit further in OH and FL.

Greek Fire on May 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

The problem with going after ‘O’ for Jeremiah Wright is that it wasn’t ‘O’ that made the church services decision. It’s always the wife that makes that decision. Especially when children come into the picture. It was Michelle that wanted her two girls to be raised hearing the vitriol coming from Wright. Meanwhile, the ‘O’ had visions of his golf game dancing through his head; i.e. he was barely listening. Michelle, however, absorbed everything.

It becomes a HUGE problem to chase the trail of Wright when it ultimately leads to Michelle.

Carnac on May 22, 2012 at 12:21 PM

That’s a pretty weak defense. You don’t think Moochelle influences him?

I do think Moochelle is even more radical and her influence on him shows everyday.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

Are we finally gonna’ get that war with Canada?

That’s about 0bama’s speed.

cozmo on May 22, 2012 at 12:15 PM

They’re threatening to undo their national health care system. That’s a casus belli.

de rigueur on May 22, 2012 at 12:30 PM

Gee, the Washington Post involved in an effort to skew the numbers toward Democrats?!? Well, at least they’re consistent. Be interesting to see if they give any coverage – and I won’t hold my breath – to the anniversary next month of their biggest black eye of recent years … http://bit.ly/qVdDUt

ombdz on May 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

Every poll from a news organization will try to keep this a horse race. A race that’s made to look close will sell more papers and draw more viewers.

The only polls that are most credible are the likely voter polls with a 2008 party-identification split. A lot of the rest are about creating news.

theCork on May 22, 2012 at 12:40 PM

This whole “700 were overridden” is getting old, most of it was inconsequential…only two items of any consequence, and neither one did he put up much of a fight.
One was for illegal’s, and he accepted (without veto) the compromise the other had to do with abortion, and he accepted the compromise on that…obviously since he appointed an abortion advocate to oversee that portion…
It was his bill, he owns it, he signed it…own up to it.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 11:48 AM

Well, I say you don’t have a clue what you are blathering about. It doesn’t really matter if “most if it was inconsequential” and there were many more than two that were “of any consequence”. There were several. Like the 8 vetoes in the Romneycare bill that eventually were overridden by the legislature.

Romney opposed the “employer mandate”. Romney wanted people to be able to get policies with higher deductibles. Romney wanted no benefits mandates, all of those were added by the legislature. Romney opposed the “minimum coverage guidelines”, he opposed the medicaid expansion, he wanted an opt-out option for people of sufficient means to self-insure. Romney did not want “free” insurance for anyone with even the poor paying at least some small portion of their own medical care. Romney wanted an option where employer health care payments could go toward the individual’s own insurance coverage and not the employers plan in order to encourage and enable people having their own care that went with them from job to job. Rather than a tax penalty for those without insurance, Romney wanted a tax break for those who had it. Important difference.

And yes, at SOME POINT when you are dealing with an overwhelming opposition you do have to make a compromise. Anything else is idiotic. You have a choice of getting some percentage of what you want or none of what you want and a program that goes 100% the other way. Some idiotic knuckleheads seem to think that is a better path: stand on principal, get nothing, give the other side 100% of what they want. Those are the “conservatives” that the Democrats love because those are the “conservatives” that get the Democrats everything they want without having to give anything up. Those are the “conservatives” are actually supporting the Democrats and why I put “conservatives” in scare quotes because they are really Democrats in disguise.

It takes absolutely NO political skill to stand there with your fingers in your ears blathering on and refusing to participate in what is going on. It takes tremendous leadership and skill to engage with the other side and force them a bit more to your side. He got the best he could get. It would have been a whole lot worse if he had simply dug in his heels and allowed himself to be steamrolled. That would have shown a complete lack of leadership and complete political impotence but that is what the so-called “conservatives” such as not2bright would have people support.

It is just plain idiotic and plays directly into the hands of the liberals.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 12:40 PM

That’s a pretty weak defense. You don’t think Moochelle influences him?

I do think Moochelle is even more radical and her influence on him shows everyday.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

That’s exactly my point and I agree. Michelle is extremely radical. If attending Wright’s services was not her style, she would not have allowed her very young children to attend.

The problem with tracing the trail of Wright is that it leads directly to Michelle. For whatever reason, Michelle is beloved by the majority of American’s. If Mitt goes after Wright and ends up at Michelle, he is FINISHED. Now that ‘O’ has a record, following that trail with that potential risk is not necessary.

If the point is that ‘O’ is a radical, there are many other pre-Michelle options in that regard.

Carnac on May 22, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Gee, the Washington Post involved in an effort to skew the numbers toward Democrats?!? Well, at least they’re consistent. Be interesting to see if they give any coverage – and I won’t hold my breath – to the anniversary next month of their biggest black eye of recent years … http://bit.ly/qVdDUt

ombdz on May 22, 2012 at 12:36 PM

I’m waiting for their repeat of “Dewey Beat’s Truman” headline…

SWalker on May 22, 2012 at 12:56 PM

What you see from his performance in MA is his performance with a legislature that is 85% Democrat and which Republicans could not possible offer any support.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Romney never says that RomneyCare was “the best we could do in MA.” So your whole premise is based on your projection.

joe besser on May 22, 2012 at 11:40 AM

lol, as a former resident of MA I can assure you that what you condescendingly call crosspatch’s “projection” is all Fact.

In fact, crosspatch didn’t even mention what Romney had to go thru with his Judicial Nominees; each and every one of them had to be approved by an 8 person panel.

All 8 of them were Democrats.

Since when are facts suddenly “projections”? Because you don’t like them?

Del Dolemonte on May 22, 2012 at 1:13 PM

“All of your republicans are belong to us!!!”

Strike Hornet on May 22, 2012 at 1:23 PM

Romney needs to won Ohio and Florida. That’s the ball game.

Greek Fire on May 22, 2012 at 12:27 PM

He has Florida – He’s gotta get Pennsylvania back.

The Obamunist won FLA in 2008 by (only) 240,000 votes out of 8 million. Thats 3% margin- and a 2% swing is all thats needed to undo the mess- and he’s lost more than 2% of his 2008 voters.

Hopey Changey aint foolin the seniors this time…. and 2010 we went R big time- Even elected an R Gov who had been fined for Medicare fraud-

There will be no 2008 Florida for the Liar in chief

FlaMurph on May 22, 2012 at 1:23 PM

That’s exactly my point and I agree. Michelle is extremely radical. If attending Wright’s services was not her style, she would not have allowed her very young children to attend.

The problem with tracing the trail of Wright is that it leads directly to Michelle. For whatever reason, Michelle is beloved by the majority of American’s. If Mitt goes after Wright and ends up at Michelle, he is FINISHED. Now that ‘O’ has a record, following that trail with that potential risk is not necessary.

If the point is that ‘O’ is a radical, there are many other pre-Michelle options in that regard.

Carnac on May 22, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Moochelle is loved by the majority of Americans? I beg to differ on that one!

I personally despie her as do many conservatives.

And there are alot more conservatives than liberals.

And for those wishy washy precious independents exposing Moochelle for who she really is should turn any rational person off to her.

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Boy, we need every vote we can get to overcome the rampant voter fraud that is going on.

My biggest fear is that Obama will go scorched earth if he sees his prospects diminish in the polls.

Then he’ll unleash the Kracken which is
Racial unrest via Holder,Shabazz,Sharpton and Jackson.

Class division via SEIU types, pubsec unions and OWSers.

We are in for some kRaZy shizit.

esnap on May 22, 2012 at 1:31 PM

The party breakdown on election night will probably be 50/50 among Democrats and Republicans. With all of these polls WILDLY oversampling Democrats, Romney is handily winning right now, especially considering undecided voters in addition break heavily for the challenger.

BradTank on May 22, 2012 at 1:35 PM

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Despite your (or my) opinion of Michelle, here are a couple of polling sources. I’ll project that you will disclaim these sources as illegitimate, but I won’t play ostrich on this issue. So I will rest on the issue of Wright –> Michelle –> Trouble for Mitt.

Pew Research Poll

Public Policy Polling

Carnac on May 22, 2012 at 1:48 PM

The person who is going tobe very happy in november is Johnny Mac
Romney will replace him as the most lame canidate.

rik on May 22, 2012 at 9:13 AM

The truth is Romney and McCain have very little in common. The attempts to link them, in my view, are misguided and born of delusion.

Shall we recount the differences?

1. Romney is actually a very bright guy.

Remember how McCain finished near the bottom of his class at the naval academy? Romney graduated cum laude with a dual degree from Harvard (business and law). He has proven his smarts in debates.

2. Romney spent 25 years in the private sector.
McCain for all his military experience did not know how the private economy worked. He married into a fortune making him more like John Kerry than Mitt Romney, who earned his $250 million fortune through founding a successful business and shrewd investing.

3. Romney has executive experience.

McCain may have commanded pilots, but he never ran a business or a state. Romney ran Bain, ran the Olympics and ran Massachussetts. He has an executive demeanor whereas McCain, like Dole before him, is a career legislator, much like Obama.

4. Romney is methodical.

The biggest knock on McCain was his erratic temperament. Remember the crazy start McCain got off to in ’07 with his poor polling and fundraising? Remember when he suspended his campaign in the fall, only to go off and vote for TARP? Romney in contrast is running a focused campaign, zeroing in on the economy and Obama’s record, with solid fundraising, and a constant message, bolstered by rapid-fire reponse that has already sustained damage to Obama (firing back on the “war on women,” “dog on roof,” “fairness” and Bain.)

Romney is no McCain. “Maverick” McCain shot from the hip. Romney and his team plan 10 steps ahead. Say what you will about his “likeability” but he’s no pushover. Oh, and Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin called Romney the conservative alternative to McCain in ’08, lest we forget.

So, I’m sure all my friends who voted for McCain would have no problem voting for someone more conservative this time around.

Nicole Coulter on May 22, 2012 at 2:54 PM

Well, I say you don’t have a clue what you are blathering about.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 12:40 PM

That is an accurate statement.

Gunlock Bill on May 22, 2012 at 3:34 PM

1. 0bama ahead 49/46
2. Poll split 32/22/38
3. 2010 exit polls 35/35/30

+3 for donks.
+13 for GOP.
= +10 GOP and Romeny up by at least 7.

jukin3 on May 22, 2012 at 4:57 PM

Carnac on May 22, 2012 at 12:50 PM

Moochelle is loved by the majority of Americans? I beg to differ on that one!

LevinFan on May 22, 2012 at 1:26 PM

All major polls have Michelle O’bama’s Favorability at 60% or better. Go figure.

Of course, the wildly biased al-AP “poll” has her at 70% as of early May, but they’re a Joke.

The lowest 2012 poll, from Quinnipiac in April, had her at 60%.

However it’s curious to note that only 2-3 outfits poll her Favorability on a semi-regular basis.

On the other hand, when she left office in early ’09 Child-Killer Laura Bush had a Favorability of 67%, and that was the biased CNN/ORC “Poll”. And unlike Mooshelle, Laura Bush had favorabilities in the 75% to 80% range many times.

Mooshelle can only wish for such lofty numbers.

Del Dolemonte on May 22, 2012 at 5:18 PM

Poll in NC among “likely voters” has Romney up by a point.

LMBOSAO*

Pollster: Let’s poll 66% Dems, 12% Independents and 22% Republicans!

(* Big ole Southern)

http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/story/11129520/

BigAlSouth on May 22, 2012 at 6:49 PM

Who is surprised? Both of them agree on so many major issues people are having a hard time getting enthused about either one.

They BOTH support:

endless and pointless wars

The Constitution shredding Patriot Act, NDAA, etc

The joke of security theater known as the TSA

The failed and incredibly expensive War on Drugs

Dealing with debt by inflation (which is a hidden tax on savers)

Indefinite detention and assassination of American citizens without a trial

Romneycare

…. it’s no wonder I rarely see an Obama bumper sticker anymore, and I’ve YET to see a Romney bumper sticker. People are waking up and realizing that both of these clowns represent their corporate masters, and NOT the people.

popularpeoplesfront on May 23, 2012 at 12:26 PM

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