Democratic internal poll: Walker’s lead now within the margin of error

posted at 6:48 pm on May 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

This cuts entirely against the conventional wisdom, backed by polling, that Walker’s lead is starting to widen, not narrow. And it sure does stink of desperate spin that they’re framing this excitedly as Barrett being within the margin of error when this same firm’s last poll in March actually had Barrett leading by one.

And yet, that little Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering: “Trouble.” Can’t help it; this is what it means to be a pessimist, my friends. If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Walker has been pulling ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in polls on the June 5 recall election sparked by the governor’s collective bargaining reforms. But internal polling from We Are Wisconsin, a labor-backed coalition supporting the recall, finds a dead heat.

In a survey of 472 recall voters conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from May 19 to 21, Walker leads Barrett 50 to 47 — within the poll’s four-point margin of error. Barrett leads with independents, 50 percent to 44 percent.

We Are Wisconsin spokesman Kelly Steele argued that the polls showing Walker in the lead oversampled Republicans and that the “pre-mortems” are premature.

“[T]his race remains a dead heat, with Barrett solidifying and even building on his lead amongst Independents, and Democrats’ turnout operation in full gear as early voting and GOTV begin in earnest,” Steele said in a memo.

A 50/47 lead for Walker isn’t dramatically different from most of the recent polls. Earlier this month Rasmussen had him leading by five, then Marquette had him leading by six, and then PPP (which is Daily Kos’s pollster) had him up by four. Then the bombshell from We Ask America showing Walker ahead by nine dropped, which, combined with the DNC’s reluctance to spend money in the state, made it look like the writing was on the wall. And maybe it is; I’d still bet that he wins comfortably. But it could also be that the race is bound to tighten in the home stretch. Why that would be, I have no idea: Normally the polls move late in a campaign as voters start paying closer attention, but Wisconsin’s been paying close attention to this for two years now. Barring some sort of epic gaffe from Walker, there’s no reason to think he’s going to blow it. And it’s worth noting that the We Ask America poll showing Walker up big is based on a sample of likely voters that’s more than two and a half times the size of this new Democratic poll, so if you had to bet on one or the other, you’d bet on landslide. Exit question: Second look at optimism?


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Naw. Ain’t gonna happen AP. People like their lower property taxes too much.

ladyingray on May 22, 2012 at 6:50 PM

So even Dem internal polls have their guy losing. Yeah, this one is over.

Gingotts on May 22, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Intrade has Walker winning by over 90% today.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=759686

burn8 on May 22, 2012 at 6:51 PM

“Democrat Internal Poll”

Yeah. You can take dat to the bank . . .

BigAlSouth on May 22, 2012 at 6:51 PM

Second look at optimism?

I’ll drink to that…!

*clink*

:)

Seven Percent Solution on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Democratic internal poll

Um. . . I question the source.

RedNewEnglander on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Incumbent at 50.

rob verdi on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Try being a Seahawks fan and then c’mon back and talk to me.

Lost in Jersey on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Intrade has Walker winning by over 90% today.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=759686

Yeah, well they still have Barry at 58%, too.

RedNewEnglander on May 22, 2012 at 6:53 PM

This reeks of a Desperate Perception/Deception Operation!!

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Don’t count your chickens…ect. but they have lost and they know it. The DOOM is filtering down the chain, and the frustration and anger are just beginning to turn in on those who hold it.

I am going to enjoy watching this little parade implode.

Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of people. :)

Brian1972 on May 22, 2012 at 6:53 PM

wisconsin gop, don’t be complacent about any of this…

Go Vote on June 5th!!

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 6:53 PM

*clink* 7%

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I eagerly expect to see the Humpbot on the evening of June 5th.

Nikkia2112 on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Translation: I am looking for page views on this stinker of a post. Walker by 8 points.

rubberneck on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

“Democratic internal poll…”

Really…?

Seven Percent Solution on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

If there’s a 3 point margin of error in this poll, that means Walker’s lead could be 6 points as well as 0. Factor in the lying that accompanies virtually everything Democrats claim and you’re looking at a 10 point Walker win.

Did I mention, by the way, that Democrats traffic in lies? Sorry if I forgot that little truism.

MaxMBJ on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

and Democrats’ turnout operation in full gear as early voting and GOTV begin in earnest

How much of that early voting is being done by late voters?

malclave on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

I am going to quote Forecaster Enten

So a Democratic poll has Walker leading by 3 and at 50%, terrible news at Walker HQ’s. They must be shivering.

msmveritas on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

Then why isn’t the DNC spending money in WI? This is BS. They just want to get their base a little more enthused about turning out.

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Yeah Remember Martha Coakley? Her internals had her up by seven over Brown. Look how the real poll turned out.

Walker got more votes than the top two dems COMBINED in a primary where the GOP race was not supposed to be a big deal. IMHO there will be a huge GOP turnout for Walker.

Remember pollsters make a living out of providing poll results. If the dems pollster gives them the news that they are sunk, will he get more work or less?

dogsoldier on May 22, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Democratic internal poll: Walker’s lead now within the margin of error

headline: Allahpundit

.
I’m not too concerned about this poll. Am I alone on that?

listens2glenn on May 22, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Wisconsin will be very interesting because it will pretty much tell us how much we can press our thumbs down on all the “Registered Voters” polls out there that show Obama up by 1, 2, and 3. Based on the Wisconsin results a week or so ago, I’m guessing the thumb factor to be about 5 – 6 points, maybe more.

Watch those Romney numbers rise when the election day nears and pollsters can no longer push memes.

MaxMBJ on May 22, 2012 at 6:57 PM

*clink* 7%

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

*clink*

:)

Seven Percent Solution on May 22, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Then why isn’t the DNC spending money in WI? This is BS. They just want to get their base a little more enthused about turning out.

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 6:56 PM

The DNC money is another form of poll you can believe in…

dogsoldier on May 22, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Dems still think Mondale is going to pull it out. Geez.

mouell on May 22, 2012 at 6:58 PM

have faith, Allahpundit, have faith my son……

ted c on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Speaking of Tom Barrett….

..chatted with WEAC members Monday night, telling them that as governor he will fight to restore public education funding and collective bargaining rights. Calling Scott Walker, “an ideological warrior” who is focused on a national agenda, Barrett said, “He is obviously after teachers, he is obviously after public workers. But I don’t think it ends there. It is (attacking) working people throughout this country that is the agenda that he is part of.” Barrett was in the WEAC building to participate in a Telephone Town Hall forum with WEAC and AFT-Wisconsin members throughout the state. Coincidentally, dozens of members were also in the building, participating in postcard-writing activities in support of his candidacy.
=========================

http://www.facebook.com/MyWEAC

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

eeyore!!!!!

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:01 PM

7%…..Cmsinaz
Make that a double * clink * , and I’m at work ………..

angrymike on May 22, 2012 at 7:02 PM

by the way, anyone who is on the top of the margin of error is 90% likely to win.

rob verdi on May 22, 2012 at 7:03 PM

If Walker wins in a landslide, how long does anyone think it will take for the unions to issue kill orders (mind you, I hope he does win, but it’s still interesting to ask)?

nobar on May 22, 2012 at 7:03 PM

Incumbent at 50.

rob verdi on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

something you wont see nationally. from now til november.

t8stlikchkn on May 22, 2012 at 7:05 PM

I can’t imagine the majority of WI voters even think the recall is necessary, much less want to go with the guy they rejected just two years prior.

changer1701 on May 22, 2012 at 7:05 PM

angrymike on May 22, 2012 at 7:02 PM

right back at ya…hide the glass

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Tea party for Scott Walker

DanaLynn on May 22, 2012 at 7:06 PM

This is what I call a Pelosi poll…

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Democrats should call their polls “Internal poll aimed at Allahpundit.”

Jim-Rose on May 22, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Sweet if Obama lost, or even won by single digits…

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

If Walker wins in a landslide, how long does anyone think it will take for the unions to issue kill orders (mind you, I hope he does win, but it’s still interesting to ask)?

nobar on May 22, 2012 at 7:03 PM

relax man, when the mob ran things, a lot better i might add, they may have. now, the best they can do is a pinata at a dork party. these pantywaste dweebs couldnt pull it off.

t8stlikchkn on May 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

I see, an internal Democratic poll . . . and we all know how valid that must be.

rplat on May 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

The margin of error doesn’t bother me. It the margin of dead and illegal voters tht has me worried.

Oxymoron on May 22, 2012 at 7:08 PM

I hate to be an Eeyore too… but… I know that the D’s and unions have way too much invested in this thing to lose. IMHO two weeks is an eternity. A lot can happen in politics in two weeks. As dirty as elections have been in the past, I expect this to be the dirtiest of all. Far dirtier than anything that even Illinois has seen in the past. And…. to be honest… I’ll be very glad to have this be over, with a big unchallengeable “W” by both Walker and Kleefisch’s names.

PackerFan4Life on May 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Further proof that Walker will win.

Bmore on May 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Yeah, well they still have Barry at 58%, too.

RedNewEnglander on May 22, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Does InTrade pay if he wins by massive voter fraud and violent insurrection abounds?

CycloneCDB on May 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

I’m surprised that the Poll didn’t show Walker losing by 5 points.

ashiya on May 22, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Walker is fine so long as Wisconsin Republicans stay enthused. This poll is nothing but a lame attempt by the Democratic left to salvage enthusiasm and fundraising for the recall.

Lawdawg86 on May 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I would expect a news blackout until results came in that showed Obama was going to win…otherwise it will be labeled an unimportant primary because no delegates were at risk.

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Oh,on the Winnie the Pooh,

me thinks,Rational!!!

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Heard some guy on the radio today say the unions in Milwaukee had so many buses pulling in for early voting he couldn’t believe it, just lines and lines of them. Don’t know if it’s true, or even what it means, although “buses” pulling into polling places sounds suspiciously like people who don’t live anywhere near there are intending to vote. The fraud for this one is gonna be epic.

Rational Thought on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

I’m surprised that the Poll didn’t show Walker losing by 5 points.

ashiya on May 22, 2012 at 7:10 PM

That’s tomorrow’s poll to show the “shift”…

right2bright on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

lesson for spinmeisters: use a crappy enough methodology so that you have a *huge* margin of error, and then you can ALWAYS say “His lead is within the margin of error!!!”

Tom Servo on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

is that today? awww ddude!

ted c on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

What value do Unions add to public sector payrolls?

That is the bazillion dollar question.

Key West Reader on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

What are “recall voters”? Those who signed the recall petition?

BKeyser on May 22, 2012 at 7:13 PM

But internal polling from We Are Wisconsin, a labor-backed coalition supporting the recall, finds a dead heat.

So the union thugs polled other union thugs in the office?

GarandFan on May 22, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Heard some guy on the radio today say the unions in Milwaukee had so many buses pulling in for early voting he couldn’t believe it, just lines and lines of them. Don’t know if it’s true, or even what it means, although “buses” pulling into polling places sounds suspiciously like people who don’t live anywhere near there are intending to vote. The fraud for this one is gonna be epic.

Rational Thought on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

I heard that as well.

Project Veritas is on the job, I’m sure. What if it’s a big fat head fake?

Brietbart is Here.

Key West Reader on May 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Mark1971:Maybe,but this just came in!!
======================================

Mitt Romney wins GOP presidential primary in Kentucky –

@APStory
Submitted 12 mins ago

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Don’t take a single vote for granted and don’t celebrate until the night of Walker’s win.

Wisconsin is the barricade of 2012.

As goes Wisconsin so will go the nation on Nov. 6 of 2012.

Schadenfreude on May 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Walker leads Barrett 50 to 47 — within the poll’s four-point margin of error.

Clearly the Democrats polled too many people. They should have only polled a dozen people, so that the margin of error would be 40 points instead of 4. Then they could believe that Barrett is actually up 87 to 10!

Fabozz on May 22, 2012 at 7:15 PM

*clink* 7%

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM

cmsinaz:Lol,..*clinks back in a non Royal Doulton Tea Cup!:)

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:16 PM

And yet, that little Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering: “Trouble.” Can’t help it; this is what it means to be a pessimist, my friends. If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Love you AP, but the key word(s) are “Democratic internal poll”.

Never believe these polls unless you can vet the questions/demographics yourself.

And never believe anything democratic operative tells you.

Finally, find another team to cheer for or accept the fact they’re going to suck for the rest of your natural life (I can vouch for this as a Canucks fan). You’ll feel better. ;)

kim roy on May 22, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Florida is riding tandem with Walker on getting rid of the Al Capone factor in public sector payrolls.

Key West Reader on May 22, 2012 at 7:17 PM

DO NOT LET THESE IDIOTS WIN BECAUSE YOU THOUGHT WALKER WOULD WIN! VOTE IF YOU ARE IN WISCONSIN!

SouthernGent on May 22, 2012 at 7:18 PM

right back at ya…hide the glass

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:05 PM

My garage in process of becoming Cave #2. Man’s always gotta have a back up plan. Trying to figure out where to hide the mini-fridge.

cajun carrot on May 22, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I’m not too concerned about this poll. Am I alone on that?

listens2glenn on May 22, 2012 at 6:56 PM

No. You have at least one fellow traveler.

kim roy on May 22, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Democratic internal poll: Walker’s lead now within the margin of error

Okay… so does that mean DNC money is rushing back into the state?

No…?

Gee, that might a clue.

CPT. Charles on May 22, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Try being a Seahawks fan and then c’mon back and talk to me.

Lost in Jersey on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Trying being a Saints fan since the inception of the franchise and then c’mon back and talk to me.

;o)

kakypat on May 22, 2012 at 7:21 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I was wondering that too.

BTW, so far 8 KY precincts have chosen “Undecided” over Obama.

Flora Duh on May 22, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Alt headline: “Courageous fleebaggers within striking distance of eeevil Scott Walker!”

yeah. sure they are.

ted c on May 22, 2012 at 7:23 PM

Question…just WHY would they release a poll that shows their guy polling even, at best? Usually when internal polling is released, it shows their guy ahead.

I guess polling even is the best they can do.

kakypat on May 22, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Make that a double * clink * , and I’m at work ………..

angrymike on May 22, 2012 at 7:02 PM

Lol,..*clinks back in a non Royal Doulton Tea Cup!:)

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:16 PM

*clink*
*clink*
*clink*

Seven Percent Solution on May 22, 2012 at 7:24 PM

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:16 PM

*clink*

:)

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:24 PM

I’m not too concerned about this poll. Am I alone on that?

listens2glenn on May 22, 2012 at 6:56 PM

Nope.

kakypat on May 22, 2012 at 7:25 PM

All that’s left in this one is the voter fraud accusations, the voter intimidation accusations and how the voter I’d law prevented people from voting hahahahaha

Conservative4ev on May 22, 2012 at 7:25 PM

And yet, that little Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering: “Trouble.” Can’t help it; this is what it means to be a pessimist, my friends. If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

..you shoulda quit when Namath won the first Super Bowl for them, AP.

The War Planner on May 22, 2012 at 7:25 PM

cajun carrot on May 22, 2012 at 7:18 PM

just make sure it’s easy access

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Try being a Seahawks fan and then c’mon back and talk to me.

Lost in Jersey on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

The Seahawks made it to the Superbowl within the last 10 years. The last time the Jets were in the Superbowl, Nixon was in his first term and The Beatles were still together. Yes, they won, but football in 1969 wasn’t half as good as what’s played in the SEC today, so this Giants fan dismisses the Joe Willie stuff as leather-helmet nostalgia. I’d have to say that Allah has it worse. Sorry.

joejm65 on May 22, 2012 at 7:26 PM

Are we going to have an Arkansas primary open thread?

Mark1971 on May 22, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Mark1971:Hot D*mn, correct you are, 36 delegates!!
==================================================

2012 Primary Schedule
**********************

The 2012 GOP primary/caucus schedule is nearly set in stone. The calendar dates below are believed to be accurate unless last minute changes occur to the schedule. Always check with your local board of elections to verify election dates, times and locations ahead of time. Note that “Super Tuesday” in 2012 falls on March 6th, however, it is a little less “super” than it has been in years past.
===========

http://www.2012presidentialelectionnews.com/2012-republican-primary-schedule/

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:27 PM

Schadenfreude on May 22, 2012 at 7:14 PM

amen

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:27 PM

*clink* 7%
cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 6:54 PM
*clink*
:)
Seven Percent Solution on May 22, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Make that a double * clink * , and I’m at work ………..
angrymike on May 22, 2012 at 7:02 PM

.
.
….chug…chug…chug!…burp!!!
*excuse me*

KOOLAID2 on May 22, 2012 at 7:27 PM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Not if you were a Colts fan in ’68 you wouldn’t.

crosspatch on May 22, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Yeah, well they still have Barry at 58%, too.

RedNewEnglander on May 22, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Does InTrade pay if he wins by massive voter fraud and violent insurrection abounds?

CycloneCDB on May 22, 2012 at 7:09 PM

Its early yet, time to short it by end of summer he should be around 48

Conservative4ev on May 22, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Frickin Democrats and Union thugs are GREAT at cheating at elections. We should get Jimmy Carter up there to poll watch, maybe some new black panthers!

JLPicard on May 22, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Democratic internal poll

This is where I stopped reading/believing.

Left Coast Right Mind on May 22, 2012 at 7:31 PM

What are “recall voters”? Those who signed the recall petition?

BKeyser on May 22, 2012 at 7:13 PM

BKeyser:I’m thinking….YesWeCanHopey/ChangeyVoterBots!!

canopfor on May 22, 2012 at 7:31 PM

just make sure it’s easy access

cmsinaz on May 22, 2012 at 7:25 PM

Can do baloo.

cajun carrot on May 22, 2012 at 7:34 PM

41% reporting in Kentucky: President Obama 60% 51,714 votes, Uncommitted 40% 35,072.

Flora Duh on May 22, 2012 at 7:34 PM

“Trouble.”

eeyore on May 22, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I don’t give this poll much credence, but it’s too early to for *clinks*. Van loads of unionistas are being bussed to the polls. I hope and pray the GOP has an awesome GOTV effort in place to counter the purple shirts.

Buy Danish on May 22, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Why do you have to give this a second thought? Or even a first one?

stukinIL4now on May 22, 2012 at 7:42 PM

It’s pretty obvious that Dem internals also include their deceased and illegal alien voter blocs…

Common Sense Floridian on May 22, 2012 at 7:42 PM

*clink*
*clink*
*clink*

Seven Percent Solution on May 22, 2012 at 7:24 PM

Remind me again. What are we clinking to?

Bmore on May 22, 2012 at 7:44 PM

Hey AP, you gutless RINO,

Intrade:

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker to win the 5 June 2012 recall election

90.2% probability

AP, you’re a wuss!

Jet fan? LOSER!!!!!

patch on May 22, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Allah you’re missing the opportunity for a comedy gold snark-filled thread:

50% reporting in Kentucky: Obama 58% 57K votes, “Uncommitted” 42% 42K votes.

Flora Duh on May 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Allah you’re missing the opportunity for a comedy gold snark-filled thread:

50% reporting in Kentucky: Obama 58% 57K votes, “Uncommitted” 42% 42K votes.

Flora Duh on May 22, 2012 at 7:49 PM

Keep those numbers coming, Flora!

JPeterman on May 22, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Someone tweeted today that they were seeing van loads of people being bused in to vote absentee for Barrett.

No time for complacency.

Purple Fury on May 22, 2012 at 7:54 PM

“Uncommitted” is back up to 40% against Obama w/60% reporting and has won 34 counties in the Kentucky Democratic primary.

btw, CNN called KY for Romney approximately 30 minutes ago.

Flora Duh on May 22, 2012 at 7:55 PM

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