Democratic internal poll: Walker’s lead now within the margin of error

posted at 6:48 pm on May 22, 2012 by Allahpundit

This cuts entirely against the conventional wisdom, backed by polling, that Walker’s lead is starting to widen, not narrow. And it sure does stink of desperate spin that they’re framing this excitedly as Barrett being within the margin of error when this same firm’s last poll in March actually had Barrett leading by one.

And yet, that little Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering: “Trouble.” Can’t help it; this is what it means to be a pessimist, my friends. If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Walker has been pulling ahead of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in polls on the June 5 recall election sparked by the governor’s collective bargaining reforms. But internal polling from We Are Wisconsin, a labor-backed coalition supporting the recall, finds a dead heat.

In a survey of 472 recall voters conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research from May 19 to 21, Walker leads Barrett 50 to 47 — within the poll’s four-point margin of error. Barrett leads with independents, 50 percent to 44 percent.

We Are Wisconsin spokesman Kelly Steele argued that the polls showing Walker in the lead oversampled Republicans and that the “pre-mortems” are premature.

“[T]his race remains a dead heat, with Barrett solidifying and even building on his lead amongst Independents, and Democrats’ turnout operation in full gear as early voting and GOTV begin in earnest,” Steele said in a memo.

A 50/47 lead for Walker isn’t dramatically different from most of the recent polls. Earlier this month Rasmussen had him leading by five, then Marquette had him leading by six, and then PPP (which is Daily Kos’s pollster) had him up by four. Then the bombshell from We Ask America showing Walker ahead by nine dropped, which, combined with the DNC’s reluctance to spend money in the state, made it look like the writing was on the wall. And maybe it is; I’d still bet that he wins comfortably. But it could also be that the race is bound to tighten in the home stretch. Why that would be, I have no idea: Normally the polls move late in a campaign as voters start paying closer attention, but Wisconsin’s been paying close attention to this for two years now. Barring some sort of epic gaffe from Walker, there’s no reason to think he’s going to blow it. And it’s worth noting that the We Ask America poll showing Walker up big is based on a sample of likely voters that’s more than two and a half times the size of this new Democratic poll, so if you had to bet on one or the other, you’d bet on landslide. Exit question: Second look at optimism?


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Double face palm.

msupertas on May 22, 2012 at 7:55 PM

@BuzzFeedAndrew: AP still has yet to call Kentucky for Obama.

Flora Duh on May 22, 2012 at 7:56 PM

BREAKING: Poll out saying sun will not come up tomorrow…and sky is definitely FALLING!!!

Quick Allah, get your diaper on and get under the bed…NOW!!!

winston on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Try being a Seahawks fan and then c’mon back and talk to me.

Lost in Jersey on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Try being a freaking PIRATES fan. :-( They haven’t won anything of substance since the NL East Division Title in 1992.

Walker’s going to win this. I can’t imagine Wisconsin residents going for the Dem after they’ve seen their taxes go down and their economy improving.

PatriotGal2257 on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Try being a freaking PIRATES fan. :-( They haven’t won anything of substance since the NL East Division Title in 1992.

PatriotGal2257 on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

It is more painful when you at least come close. The Bucs cannot even do that.

CW on May 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Try being a freaking PIRATES fan. :-( They haven’t won anything of substance since the NL East Division Title in 1992.

Walker’s going to win this. I can’t imagine Wisconsin residents going for the Dem after they’ve seen their taxes go down and their economy improving.

PatriotGal2257 on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

At least the O’s are making it fun in the AL East this year. But those of us diehard fans who still pay attention are waiting for the inevitable crushing losing streak.

Hope Walker smacks Barrett and his union cronies but good. I wanna hear them whining all the way back here in MD.

Maybe it’ll give O’Malley nightmares….

nukemhill on May 22, 2012 at 8:04 PM

. A horse walks into a bar, he sits down and the bartender asks him, “Why the long face?”
Then a second horse walks in with jumper cables attached to it’s head, he sits down, and the bartender says, “I don’t mind the long face, but don’t you go and try to start anything!”

CW on May 22, 2012 at 8:16 PM

So, this pirate walks into a bar with a captain’s wheel crammed down the front of his pants and the bartender says, ‘why have you got a captain’s wheel crammed down the front of your pants?’ And the pirate says, ‘arrgh! It’s driving me nuts!

CW on May 22, 2012 at 8:18 PM

As someone in WI, I can attest to the fact that early voting is HUGE for the Dems and Barrett. I went to Milwaukee to see for myself and, sure enough, there were vans dropping people off to vote. They were ONE WISCONSIN NOW vans and were numbered 15 and 16. I live in heavily GOP Waukesha
County and there has been little, if any, early voting here.

I’m more than a little worried that the Walker Campaign has basically decided not to invest at all in a concerted GOTV effort and is relying on bad TV ads to get people motivated to vote.

gumbyandpokey on May 22, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Hey guys, remember when Kloppenburg won that Supreme Court seat?

ButterflyDragon on May 22, 2012 at 8:23 PM

They might be shooting their “wad” in early voting in the first days. If the heavy traffic continues, then be worried. There are 14 days here. And it would be interesting to see if these vans are full of legitimate voters.

karenhasfreedom on May 22, 2012 at 8:35 PM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Try being a Seahawks fan and then c’mon back and talk to me.

Lost in Jersey on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM

Try being a freaking PIRATES fan. :-( They haven’t won anything of substance since the NL East Division Title in 1992.

PatriotGal2257 on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Oh, come on. Try to be a Vikings fan. They’ve been to the big one 4 – count ‘em 4 – times and they’ve never brought home the ring. (Note that I said “try to be” not that “I am” a Vikings fan…)

climbnjump on May 22, 2012 at 8:38 PM

If I’m not Tigger, I want to be.

Cindy Munford on May 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

And yet, that little Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering …

Well, then pull your head out of its ass.

chimney sweep on May 22, 2012 at 8:50 PM

So, this pirate walks into a bar with a captain’s wheel crammed down the front of his pants and the bartender says, ‘why have you got a captain’s wheel crammed down the front of your pants?’ And the pirate says, ‘arrgh! It’s driving me nuts!
CW on May 22, 2012 at 8:18 PM

Don’t know what this joke has to do with this thread but it did make me laugh.

Buy Danish on May 22, 2012 at 8:52 PM

If I’m not Tigger, I want to be.

Cindy Munford on May 22, 2012 at 8:46 PM

The wonderful thing about Tiggers
Is Tiggers are wonderful things!
Their tops are made out of rubber
Their bottoms are made out of springs!
They’re bouncy, trouncy, flouncy, pouncy Fun, fun, fun, fun, fun!
But the most wonderful thing about tiggers is I’m the only one!

climbnjump on May 22, 2012 at 8:54 PM

Quit making me nervous Allah. Just keep telling people to get out and vote.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 8:55 PM

Try being a Green Bay Packers fan.

The election is in Wisconsin, and the Jets are losers.

WhatNot on May 22, 2012 at 9:02 PM

As someone in WI, I can attest to the fact that early voting is HUGE for the Dems and Barrett.
gumbyandpokey on May 22, 2012 at 8:22 PM

That is not unexpected. Though I do wonder how many of these “early voters” are also going to be out on election day, with different names. We need EVERY Walker supporter to vote, otherwise the dems might just hijack your name. I wouldn’t put it past them. Nice that they got that voter ID blocked just so they can try their tricks.

As far as the poll, you have to consider the source – A labor-backed coalition??!
This does have that same “Kloppenburg for the win” feel to it.

Really though, I am glad they put out this poll for everyone to see. To keep the Walker supporters from getting too complacent.

Sterling Holobyte on May 22, 2012 at 9:06 PM

A few things:

First…Yes, there are vans going to the Milwaukee municipal building and they are from JOBS NOW. I’ve seen them. They bring a few dozen people every time they show up.

Second, we’ve already had a Supreme Court election and one recall election where the conservatives won. Scott Walker won County Executive elections twice.

Third, when we held the primary, Scott Walker got far more votes than Barrett and Falk combined, and almost as many votes as ALL the Democrat candidates on the ticket.

Fourth, Wisconsin Republicans aren’t renowned for our GOTV efforts or organizing, but we get it done when it matters. I don’t think Republicans/conservatives in this state are in any way demoralized or shy about going out and voting for Walker.

This race, in my opinion, will be close but — ultimately — I remain cautiously optimistic that this election is Walker’s to lose. Too many people have seen the benefits of his reforms to go back to the days of Jim Doyle/Democrat tax-and-spend deficits. Also, frankly, the City of Milwaukee is seen as a dangerous hell-hole by most of out state Wisconsin and they are going to look askance at voting for Tom Barrett so he can turn the state into one giant Milwaukee.

Remain optimistic. Keep calm, and encourage your Wisconsin family/friends to VOTE FOR WALKER.

englishqueen01 on May 22, 2012 at 9:08 PM

Heard some guy on the radio today say the unions in Milwaukee had so many buses pulling in for early voting he couldn’t believe it, just lines and lines of them. Don’t know if it’s true, or even what it means, although “buses” pulling into polling places sounds suspiciously like people who don’t live anywhere near there are intending to vote. The fraud for this one is gonna be epic.

Rational Thought on May 22, 2012 at 7:12 PM

This is what worries me. They could win that way.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 9:09 PM

Like I give a rat’s ass about what the Democrats say their polling shows.

eyedoc on May 22, 2012 at 9:10 PM

Normally, I suspect the Democrats and their supporters, of using polls like this trying to gin up support for their candidate. On this one, I think it’s entirely plausible it’s the Republicans trying to get their supporters out and voting.

The problem with Wisconsin is the union vote will be out so, if you don’t get the conservative vote out to counter that you could easily have a problem. There is too much riding on this election to become complacent. I don’t believe it’s a stretch to say the future of our country could rest on this election because, if the unions actually believe they can completely disrespect the process and get a positive result, they will keep doing that and move from state to state and eventually pull the same tactics in the halls of congress.

This is really important and I’m praying for Walker to win.

bflat879 on May 22, 2012 at 9:17 PM

You guys, in the primary — where the Democrats had far more at stake than Walker face the self-proclaimed “progressive Republican” — Walker nearly beat the vote totals for ALL the Democrats combined.

There we saw the real number of recall petition signers. Stay calm and vote for Walker.

englishqueen01 on May 22, 2012 at 9:20 PM

They might be shooting their “wad” in early voting in the first days. If the heavy traffic continues, then be worried. There are 14 days here. And it would be interesting to see if these vans are full of legitimate voters.

karenhasfreedom on May 22, 2012 at 8:35 PM

Maybe they are figuring out how many dead votes they need to cover the spread.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 9:23 PM

If the Dems win in Wisconsin, it will be because of their fraud. Watch out for that Cemetery vote. Walker needs total support to make sure he can override any mischief.

FREEDOM4906 on May 22, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Maybe they are figuring out how many dead votes they need to cover the spread.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 9:23 PM

If the primary is any indication(and to paraphrase Roy Scheider in JAWS), they’re going to need a bigger trunk.

Sterling Holobyte on May 22, 2012 at 9:28 PM

“636 absentee ballots were cast in Madison, the first day Wisconsinites could vote Absentee for the June 5th recall. In fact, more people voted absentee in Madison on Monday than in the much larger city of Milwaukee, when 457 voters cast their ballots there.” MacIver Institute, Madison.
Those are the totals from Monday. And I don’t want to hear any more sports team whining. My team hasn’t won a thing since 1908. Go Cubs!
Even here in solidly Democratic Northwestern Wisconsin there are Walker signs everywhere.

brotherdok on May 22, 2012 at 9:29 PM

If the primary is any indication(and to paraphrase Roy Scheider in JAWS), they’re going to need a bigger trunk.

Sterling Holobyte on May 22, 2012 at 9:28 PM

Yep your right, they are just so evil at times.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 9:30 PM

Walker will likely have to win by more than 10 points to beat the Dem voter fraud. Never forget Minnesota! Send Walker a donation today!

Christian Conservative on May 22, 2012 at 9:33 PM

How can there be no comparable GOTV plan from the Walker Campaign?

They have more money and could have 2 vans for every one the Dems have.

IMO, it’s a huge mistake to rely on TV and radio ads and completely forgo any “boots on the ground.”

gumbyandpokey on May 22, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Walker’s at 90% on Intrade, so go on, Allahpundit – put your money where your Eeyore mouth is. You could win big.

disa on May 22, 2012 at 10:09 PM

There is a poll watching effort underway, but I don’t know about a GOTV, other than phoning. Volunteers have made more calls for Walker in this recall than in the actual election.

I chatted with Scott Walker for a few minutes today before he spoke to a group. He is even more likable in person.

(And all the fan whining… I’m a Cubs fan!)

Daisy_WI on May 22, 2012 at 10:15 PM

Walker’s at 90% on Intrade, so go on, Allahpundit – put your money where your Eeyore mouth is. You could win big.

Curious: What’s Intrade’s track record?

Slightly OT and SPOILER ALERT: Donald Driver wins ‘Dancing With the Stars’ on ABC. He did so because of our votes, because he didn’t have the highest scores. Just sayin’…

englishqueen01 on May 22, 2012 at 11:05 PM

Katherine Jenkins was by far a better dancer than Donald Driver. All he did was take his shirt off…all flash and no substance. One of the worst winners on the show.

gumbyandpokey on May 22, 2012 at 11:48 PM

Curious: What’s Intrade’s track record?

Slightly OT and SPOILER ALERT: Donald Driver wins ‘Dancing With the Stars’ on ABC. He did so because of our votes, because he didn’t have the highest scores. Just sayin’…

englishqueen01 on May 22, 2012 at 11:05 PM

They blew the Doug Hoffman/Dede Scozzafava election big time. InTrade is not infallible.

Doomberg on May 22, 2012 at 11:54 PM

Yep your right, they are just so evil at times.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 9:30 PM

So was the shark. And you know what happened to him. It all blew up in his face. Hopefully that will happen to the unions and dems bringing this stupid recall.
And no, that is not a threat of violence(that’s the left-wing’s territory). I meant it figuratively.

Sterling Holobyte on May 23, 2012 at 12:21 AM

They blew the Doug Hoffman/Dede Scozzafava election big time. InTrade is not infallible.

Doomberg on May 22, 2012 at 11:54 PM

What were the InTrade odds on that one?

Pythagoras on May 23, 2012 at 12:29 AM

Dire Straits QOTD song. I know this isn’t your cup of tea. So I will include the lyrics. Mid Course Correction Blue Monday What’s Done is Done.

Why do we always stand down? Forget about what we
Believe? Well this is not the end; I’m not ready to give
In. Do you remember when we thought we could change the
World? Before the way it is, was shoved down our throats.
And it speaks apathy easier pretend not to care, but
Pretending has a way of becoming what we believe. And do
You remember when we thought we could change the world
Before the way it is was shoved down our throats. We
Reach for nothing these days. Silenced ideals, voices
Kept at bay. We reach for nothing these days. We’re
Always looking for the easier way. I can’t sit still some
Times, I feel an urgency build inside. I’m bursting at
The seams; I need to live this life. And I think of the
Times when our screams did change the world and I’ll take
It on if you take it on.

Bmore on May 23, 2012 at 12:43 AM

Wrong thread sorry folks, back to QOTD.

Bmore on May 23, 2012 at 12:43 AM

I’m a Yankees fan so I’m accustomed to winning and I go with Walker.

SukieTawdry on May 23, 2012 at 1:20 AM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

POSTED AT 6:48 PM ON MAY 22, 2012 BY ALLAHPUNDIT

No one would understand that brand of insanity. Loser.

DevilsPrinciple on May 23, 2012 at 4:32 AM

Yep your right, they are just so evil at times.

wi farmgirl on May 22, 2012 at 9:30 PM

So was the shark. And you know what happened to him. It all blew up in his face. Hopefully that will happen to the unions and dems bringing this stupid recall.
And no, that is not a threat of violence(that’s the left-wing’s territory). I meant it figuratively.

Sterling Holobyte on May 23, 2012 at 12:21 AM

Well you know with the left the end always justifies the means. Their always right. But they forget in this election facts and figures are a pesky thing. Money speaks.

wi farmgirl on May 23, 2012 at 6:42 AM

They blew the Doug Hoffman/Dede Scozzafava election big time. InTrade is not infallible.

Okay, so one. What’s their average over the course of several elections? 50-50? 90-10? 80-20? 60-40?

englishqueen01 on May 23, 2012 at 7:05 AM

The Scott supporters had better show at the polls. Either that or shut down the southern border when the Chicago influence does their border crossing on game day.

Carnac on May 23, 2012 at 8:23 AM

Try being a freaking PIRATES fan. :-( They haven’t won anything of substance since the NL East Division Title in 1992.

Walker’s going to win this. I can’t imagine Wisconsin residents going for the Dem after they’ve seen their taxes go down and their economy improving.

PatriotGal2257 on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

TIGERS fan…. and I don’t mean Tony ……

and I agree with you ….
walker is gonna win ….

conservative tarheel on May 23, 2012 at 8:30 AM

The Scott supporters had better show at the polls. Either that or shut down the southern border when the Chicago influence does their border crossing on game day.

Carnac on May 23, 2012 at 8:23 AM

There were more Republicans that voted for Walker in the Primary than Democrats showed up to vote for the socialist candidates and Walker was unopposed. I’d say that it’s a safe bet Republicans will show up for the election.

I wonder if the Democrats poll dead voters too!

cajunpatriot on May 23, 2012 at 9:07 AM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

I did. I do.

I just hope Walker wins.

magicbeans on May 23, 2012 at 9:33 AM

If you grew up rooting for the Jets, you’d understand.

Try being a Seahawks fan and then c’mon back and talk to me.

Lost in Jersey on May 22, 2012 at 6:52 PM
Try being a freaking PIRATES fan. :-( They haven’t won anything of substance since the NL East Division Title in 1992.

Walker’s going to win this. I can’t imagine Wisconsin residents going for the Dem after they’ve seen their taxes go down and their economy improving.

PatriotGal2257 on May 22, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Try being a Cleveland fan. No championships of any kind in 48 years.

buckeyerich on May 23, 2012 at 10:50 AM

For this poll, the wording might be key. The text says “In a survey of 472 recall voters …”. If they only accepted responses from those who participated in the recall vote and then weighted the responses by which party primary they voted in, then this could explain the result. Recall voters is probably a different set than likely voters.

psyphyr on May 23, 2012 at 4:59 PM

The poll may help Walker, as it will frighten his supporters into making sure they show up to vote.

Colony14 on May 23, 2012 at 5:45 PM

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