New Wisconsin poll: Walker by six among likely voters, Romney tied with Obama at 46

posted at 4:01 pm on May 16, 2012 by Allahpundit

The last Marquette poll, which had Walker leading Barrett by one thin point, made me want to drink whiskey in the daytime. This one makes me want to drink champagne. Yesterday’s dKos/PPP poll had nearly identical numbers so it’s safe to say this really is the state of the race in Wisconsin at this moment.

I can’t believe I’m asking this, but are we headed for a Scott Walker landslide?

Republicans are more likely to say they are “absolutely certain” to vote on June 5, at 91 percent, than are Democrats and independents, both at 83 percent. In other areas of participation, Republicans also have an advantage. Sixty-two percent of Republicans say that they have tried to persuade someone to vote for or against a candidate, compared to 54 percent among Democrats and 48 percent among independents…

Another indication of Republican mobilization is a shift in the balance of Republican and Democratic partisanship over the past several months among all registered voters. In January there were two percentage points more Democrats than Republicans in the poll. That rose to eight points in February but has since declined to six points in March, three points in April and now just one point in May. When independents are asked if they feel closer to a party, the balance tips to a one-point Republican advantage in the May data. Such changes might be due to random variation from sample to sample, as the month-to-month changes are not large. However, polling by the Democratic polling firm, Public Policy Polling, finds a similar trend…

Collective bargaining continues to divide the electorate by single digits. Voters prefer to keep the current collective bargaining law rather than return to what it was prior to last year, by a 50-43 percentage point margin. Restoring collective bargaining is supported by 78 percent of Democrats and opposed by 81 percent of Republicans. Among independents, 53 percent want to keep the current law while 38 percent want to return to the previous law.

Last month Walker’s approval rating was 47/51. This month it’s 50/46. Some of that’s due to the good news on jobs in his first year in office and some of it’s surely due to Walker tapping his enormous war chest for the recall effort. But judging from that amazing split among indies on the collective bargaining law, Walker’s message that it’s been a net plus for the state has apparently penetrated. Back when the Madison protests were raging, I think big labor’s dream was to turn the Walker recall election into a referendum on public-employee unions. Then they got some unwelcome facts about the new law and clammed up about it, but it looks like they’re getting their referendum anyway. Hope they enjoy the results.

I don’t know what to make of that trend towards the GOP among the Wisconsin electorate generally, though. Two possibilities. One: Could be that the uptick in Republican identification is being driven partly by the presidential primaries that began in January and rolled on until April. Some of the anti-Obama rhetoric from Romney, Santorum, Gingrich et al. may have nudged fencesitters into the Republican column while O’s sat mostly silent on the sidelines. Two: Note that Democratic identification surged in February, shortly after Democrats announced they had the signatures needed to force a recall election. Maybe that woke up tepid Republicans and fencesitters to the possibility that Walker really might be removed and that labor would treat that as an epochal victory proving the righteousness of PEUs, resulting in a sustained pro-GOP backlash. Or, maybe this is all just the product of standard political forces at work. Walker’s spent a bunch of money to make his case and the national economy under The One continues to reek, so undecideds are reacting predictably. No wonder the DNC has apparently thrown in the towel.

All Romney needs to do now is figure out how to keep that GOP enthusiasm going and he can force O to spend a bunch of money on a state the Democrats never expected they’d need to protect. Speaking of which, Mitt’s favorable rating is now up to 40/44 from 33/46 in April, which was to be expected as hard feelings among Santorum and Gingrich fans after the bitter GOP primary start to soften. Obama will spend the next six months trying to knock it back down again. Quick, media — more stories about bullying that happened 50 years ago, stat.


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Fox now has the general at 46- 39 Obama. What the hell is fox up to??

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Yowza. If as many Democrats in WI have switched to GOP to make these samples accurate then is curtains for the Democrats nation-wide in November. Corporatism and austerity yay, apparently. We’ll see how it works (hint, it won’t).

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Fact – It will

1. Lower property taxes (in his first year)
2. Higher revenue to the state Government (as opposed to IL)
3. No budget deficit, no tax increases
4. 30,000+ jobs created
5. Unemployment down 1%
6. Size of workforce increasing.
7. Personal income up.

It’s Working! Will the last business to leave Illinois please turn out the lights?

Green_Bay_Packers on May 16, 2012 at 6:21 PM

BOYCOTT FOX!!! They poll Mit at 39% BS BS BS Stop watching until they admit this is stupid.

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:23 PM

Fox is probably having barone poll for them. Only registered pickle puffers.

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:25 PM

(hint, it won’t).

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Why do you want us to fail?

/

Seriously gfy.

CW on May 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 5:48 PM

Personally, I like the lower property tax bill.

But your mileage may vary.

sammypants on May 16, 2012 at 7:03 PM

A week ago my family was going to Manitowoc for the weekend. We took a detour up highway 57 for all-you-can-eat crab legs in New Holstein. The number of LARGE “I Stand With Walker” signs was unbelievable! They were everywhere! I was VERY pleasantly surprised!

Sasha List on May 16, 2012 at 7:06 PM

They must really be getting sick and tired of politics in Wisconsin by now.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Only the lefties. The right is totally fired up for this right now.

sammypants on May 16, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Fox now has the general at 46- 39 Obama. What the hell is fox up to??

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:20 PM

They want some love from CNN and MSNBC viewers. All two of them. Don’t know who is in charge over there, but I guess they must get bashed enough at the elite cocktail parties (O’Reilly probably at other parties) to give in a little, or a lot. Everybody wants to be loved.

I wonder whether Huffpo and DKos would find a HotAir(sponsored)/Rasmussen poll acceptable?

oldroy on May 16, 2012 at 7:12 PM

For that matter I wonder what it costs to sponsor one of these polls.

oldroy on May 16, 2012 at 7:13 PM

How about it AP and Captain Ed? Take some of those massive HotAir profits and sponsor a poll or two?

oldroy on May 16, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Too bad angryed went full retard in the Haircutgate thread. He should have saved his final meltdown for this.

Chuck Schick on May 16, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Angryed was banned? Aw….which thread?

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 7:18 PM

Fox now has the general at 46- 39 Obama. What the hell is fox up to??

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:20 PM

We’re being played. Mitt and Obama are far too similar on most issues. What is a 24 hour news media machine to do to drive up ratings in the long summer months of what will be a boring campaign? Why release a series of polls that make no sense and get everyone in a tizzy. Last week it was the series of swing state and national polls that vastly over-sampled Republicans. This gets diaffected lefties to stop paying attention to important issues and start investing in the feckless Dem centrist. Now cue Fox releasing an insane poll thats skewed towards Obama (39%?!?) to get their conservative audience all riled up. And its working.

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Oh my, indeed. FOX NEWS: Obama 46, Romney 39

HotAir Readers: But…but…Fox is a known left-wing organization! Pay no mind to it.

inthemiddle on May 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

The last Marquette poll, which had Walker leading Barrett by one thin point, made me want to drink whiskey in the daytime.

So, what you’re saying is that politics is driving you to drink.

Amen to that!

Pablo Snooze on May 16, 2012 at 7:52 PM

lolz @ romney @ 39%….gimmme a break.

therightwinger on May 16, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Yeah and I wonder if they had open registration too soon. They’ve had time to weed out all the new crazies before the going gets good.

Lily on May 16, 2012 at 4:25 PM

I want one the day before the election when BHO loses in a landslide. Be up all night election night slapping down crying trolls.

msupertas on May 16, 2012 at 8:09 PM

99-0…I wonder who the 1 abstention was…probably McCain..

PatriotRider on May 16, 2012 at 4:36 PM

More likely Coburn. Its’ SS LUV !!

rik on May 16, 2012 at 4:40 PM

He’s my Senator. Could’ve puked. Think he said he’s not running for re-election. Good thing.

msupertas on May 16, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Oh my, indeed. FOX NEWS: Obama 46, Romney 39

HotAir Readers: But…but…Fox is a known left-wing organization! Pay no mind to it.

inthemiddle on May 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Don’t worry. We won’t.

msupertas on May 16, 2012 at 8:16 PM

Oh my, indeed. FOX NEWS: Obama 46, Romney 39

HotAir Readers: But…but…Fox is a known left-wing organization! Pay no mind to it.

inthemiddle on May 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

There are anomalies in any polling. I view this just like I view the poll that has Walker up 9 points in Wisconsin: skeptically. Other polls, however there is a trend in both that does not favor the Democrats.

englishqueen01 on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 PM

The poll of Fox was done by a little known group named Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)

They interviewed 913 registered voters from 13-15 May 12 . There is a 8 point overweight for Democrats

Democrats 42
Republicans 34
Independents 20

The same pollsters had them tied at 46 to 46 in April. I am not sure if we should sell the farm on the basis of this poll.

galtani on May 16, 2012 at 9:14 PM

I can’t believe I’m asking this, but are we headed for a Scott Walker landslide?

Only if all of us get out to vote.

Steve Eggleston on May 16, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Don’t know about a landslide but hopefully over all the cheating that could go on without voter ID.

wi farmgirl on May 16, 2012 at 9:15 PM

I love how Walker has co-opted the “Forward” slogan in his ads. Not only from Obama but also from Feingold who used that for his campaign in 2010.

That’s rich right there. Walker’s got style.

letoile du nord on May 16, 2012 at 4:15 PM

Me too, cracked me up when I first saw it. It’s a beautiful thing.

wi farmgirl on May 16, 2012 at 9:24 PM

It’s been a tightrope with my teacher friends – but they’re starting to realize that they got fleeced by WEAC too. It wasn’t just the taxpayers and the kids.

Daisy_WI on May 16, 2012 at 4:24 PM

Daisy…”it’s working!” :D

wi farmgirl on May 16, 2012 at 9:35 PM

This is going to be a wave election, a real tsunami, I can feel it in my bones. Obozo is toast. That dog-eating SCOAMF is going to lose 45 states.

Hayabusa on May 16, 2012 at 9:36 PM

I happened to catch Special Ed Shultz and he about had a coronary presenting this statistic:

39% of UNION HOUSEHOLDS POLLED planned to support Walker.

39%

Sgt. Shultz then “rallied the troops”. June 5th will be sweet. Oh, BTW, if that union household living next door supports Walker, burn it down.

Marcus on May 16, 2012 at 9:41 PM

They must really be getting sick and tired of politics in Wisconsin by now.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

Sick and tired of fighting about politics.

wi farmgirl on May 16, 2012 at 9:45 PM

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 88% of American Adults report paying more for groceries compared to a year ago

Conservative4ev on May 16, 2012 at 10:08 PM

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 88% of American Adults report paying more for groceries compared to a year ago

Conservative4ev on May 16, 2012 at 10:08 PM

Gas-price based inflation is the President’s fault as well. Even though every economist on. the. planet. says the U.S. President can do nothing to influence gas prices? Good gravy.

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Yes, Farmgirl, it’s working.

I’m going to a reception next week for Governor Walker. I can’t tell you how psyched I am.

Daisy_WI on May 16, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Gas-price based inflation is the President’s fault as well. Even though every economist on. the. planet. says the U.S. President can do nothing to influence gas prices? Good gravy.

libfreeordie on May 16, 2012 at 10:22 PM

Oh, so printing money like Zimbabwe, blocking major oil pipelines, and denying drilling permits in the Gulf, outer continental shelf, and public shale basins have no influence on oil prices?

You are a moron because you do nothing but listen to morons.

The Count on May 17, 2012 at 12:22 AM

Fox now has the general at 46- 39 Obama. What the hell is fox up to??

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:20 PM

Dick Morris was on O’Reilly tonight and explained the Fox poll was calling “registered voters” whereas Morris and Rasmussen poll “likely voters” and that is why he feels the Fox poll isn’t really telling the true story. I think Romney is running a smart campaign and I do hope he wins by a lot.

KCinLV

KCinLV on May 17, 2012 at 3:12 AM

There was no “abstention” on the budget vote. Illinois Republican Senator Kirk is still recovering from a stroke.

DNC hasn’t “thrown in the towel” on the Wisconsin recall. They were never in it. It’s all been union money from across the country, none from the DNC or other Party funds. All of that is reserved to save Obama from justice in the fall; everyone and everything else is on their own this year.

Adjoran on May 17, 2012 at 5:21 AM

True the Vote is having training this weekend for poll watchers. While it’s supposed to be my weekend away, I might just have to go to it. (I’ll be going to the Madison one! That should be fun).

Daisy_WI on May 17, 2012 at 7:12 AM

They must really be getting sick and tired of politics in Wisconsin by now.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 16, 2012 at 4:44 PM

I am absolutely not sick and tired of politics. I am more fired up about this recall election than any election…even the first presidential election in which I was allowed to vote (’04).

I am totally and completely proud of the work Walker has done in Wisconsin. He erased a deficit, has us on par for a major budget SURPLUS, and did so without jacking up taxes or providing major cuts in services. Where there are struggles with the new state budget, it’s because school districts/local governments re-upped contracts with unions before Act 10 became law…so every time I hear someone whine about it, I look at the districts that are doing things like giving their teachers an 18% raise and putting more money in the classroom (rather than union pockets or grossly overpriced benefits) and…I don’t feel bad.

I feel very optimistic about this recall. And once Walker wins, it will only bode well for Romney in November.

englishqueen01 on May 17, 2012 at 7:17 AM

Don’t get too exited just yet fellow GOPers. Oil prices have been dropping on the world market and fuel prices are starting to drop. If the trend continues it will give the economy a boost and that in turn will boost the little commie wannabe dictator chance of winning reelection in November.

bgibbs1000 on May 17, 2012 at 8:06 AM

For your entertainment read the thread under the article. Pretty funny stuff.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/26/wisconsin-recall-election-2012_n_1456856.html?ref=politics#comments

wi farmgirl on May 17, 2012 at 8:12 AM

Yes, Farmgirl, it’s working.

I’m going to a reception next week for Governor Walker. I can’t tell you how psyched I am.

Daisy_WI on May 16, 2012 at 11:11 PM

Give him a high five. I can’t believe how many Walker signs I am seeing in a very deep blue rural area. I think many signed that recall under duress and they are seeing the money that was squandered via WEAT ins. That money laundering scheme is all but done now.

wi farmgirl on May 17, 2012 at 8:16 AM

True the Vote is having training this weekend for poll watchers. While it’s supposed to be my weekend away, I might just have to go to it. (I’ll be going to the Madison one! That should be fun).

Daisy_WI on May 17, 2012 at 7:12 AM

They will probably *protest* that too. The blue fisters will be there in all their glory.

wi farmgirl on May 17, 2012 at 8:20 AM

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