Does 04 + 08 = 12?

posted at 6:46 pm on May 16, 2012 by Karl

William Galston of Brookings recently published “Six Months to Go: Where the Presidential Contest Stands as the General Election Begins,” which compiles a wealth of polling to paint a fairly gloomy portrait of Pres. Obama’s reelection prospects:

Today, while Obama enjoys about a three-point edge over Romney, his electoral support remains well short of 50 percent. His job approval remains significantly lower than that of the past five incumbents who won their reelection contests and is actually two points lower than Jimmy Carter’s was at this point in 1980. (It is four points higher than George H. W. Bush’s job approval in 1992, however.)

Other yellow lights are flashing as well. One recent survey found that only 46 percent of the people think that Obama deserves to be reelected, versus 49 percent who do not. He receives mediocre grades for his handling of the economy and job creation. Another survey found fully 48 percent of the electorate would “never” vote for Obama, suggesting a ceiling below his 2008 share of the vote. (The corresponding figure for Romney was 46 percent.) And despite some recent improvement, key parts of the Democratic base remain less excited about the 2012 contest than are their Republican counterparts.

Read The Whole Thing, but the vast majority who don’t can get a flavor of it from TIME’s Michael Scherer.

The reactions to Galston’s report seem misguided. David Brooks wonders why Obama isn’t getting “crushed”, as the “economic climate is as bad as or worse than it was in 1968, 1976, 1992 and 2000, years when incumbent parties lost re-election.” Brooks concludes that Obama is benefiting from the Emerging Democratic Majority (despite Galston noting the lack of enthusiasm among said Majority) and because the president is just so gosh-darned likeable, what with the creased trousers and all (although the new USAT/Gallup poll is one of several showing Romney’s favorables climbing).

The unlikely duo of James Pethokoukis and Juicebox Mafioso Ezra Klein explain how Brooks gets it wrong, arguing Obama’s buoyancy may be explained by the economic fundamentals and incumbency (although Klein does the latter implicitly). I generally agree with them about the economics, but less so regarding incumbency. John Sides, one of the co-creators of Klein’s Wonkblog model, concedes the model overestimated the incumbent party’s vote share in 1992-2008, and that the model’s estimates for 2012 also feel a bit too optimistic for Obama. Similarly, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time For a Change” model, which gives Obama a good chance of winning a second term with modest economic growth and an approval rating in the low- to mid-forties has over-predicted the vote of the incumbent candidate by at least 1.85% in each of the last four presidential elections.

Any discussion of why Obama isn’t being “crushed” is disappointing because early head-to-head polls are not very reliable in predicting election results. The classic case is May 1980, when Carter was ahead of Reagan by 9%, despite a much higher misery index than today. A more useful reaction might be to treat Galston’s report as a prism through which to view the Romney and Obama campaigns.

For example, the report suggests Romney has two major problems. First, only 31% of Americans think Romney has a clear plan for fixing the economy — even worse than the 36% who think Obama has one. Second, Galston takes seriously the possibility that Obama could gain traction if he succeeds in painting Romney as a right-wing extremist (I tend to doubt this is possible, but it will not be for lack of trying).

The main lesson for Romney seems to be that he should not only critique Obamanomics, but also spend more time on Romneynomics. Granted, the election is mostly a referendum on Obama and Romney’s 160-page economic plan is more a plan to have a plan than a plan. Nevertheless, Bill Clinton did alright in 1992 as the Man With a Plan, so Mitt ought to mention his more often. It might be even better to bumper-sticker a few big ideas because few will read the 160-page version.

Moreover, while Romney rightly focuses on controlling government spending, Matt K. Lewis is likely correct that talking up economic growth is at least as important politically. If done well, this approach would also blunt the left’s campaign tactics. Again, Bill Clinton would be the model here: Romney can be the guy who is working on America’s real problems, while Team Dem is focused on petty distractions.

Furthermore, this approach would help exploit the myriad problems for Obama that Galston identifies. The issues most important to Americans, chiefly the economy, do not favor Obama. Thus, Team O is left with a strategy which is essentially an amalgam of 2004 and 2008. It draws on 2004 by relying on mobilizing supporters more than persuading swing voters. It draws on 2008 insofar as that mobilization is confined to a subset of the coalition Obama won 3+ years ago (largely the demographics of the supposed Emerging Democratic Majority). As Sean Trende observes in his book, The Lost Majority, Obama won a higher percentage of the vote than Bill Clinton ever did, but Obama’s coalition was demographically narrower. The political perfect storm that swept Obama into office has been replaced with the Obama record; Obama’s available demographics will have narrowed accordingly.

Obama’s reelect strategy is visible in the daily headlines, but typically not considered in toto. (Jay Cost came pretty close to it.) Political junkies notice Obama’s student loan policy is a sop to the young, the absurdly fictional “Julia” a pitch to single women (esp. single mothers), the reversal on same sex marriage a balm for Hollywood’s big donors, gay rights activists and the media, and so on. Brooks views these positions as the sort of small-ball politics Clinton used successfully in 1996, which has it backwards. Clinton played small-ball to appear more conservative and reach for the center as the economy ramped up; Obama is taking positions to pander to his base as the economy limps.

This is crucial to note because, in a larger sense, it is nothing new. Barack Obama’s approval ratings have declined from lofty heights because he has governed as What Swing Voters Haven’t Liked About Democrats For Decades. His response to the recession was an orgy of spending that made the prior profligacy of George W. Bush look frugal by comparison. Then, as as the economy failed to respond, Obama spent a year pursuing the progressive Holy Grail of more socialized healthcare. If there is a lasting negative reaction among independents to the hoopla over Obama’s reversal on same sex marriage, it will be because they judge it as not only merely political, but also as another example of Obama pandering to the left instead of working on the economy (not unlike the backlash to Bill Clinton getting drawn into the “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell” issue early in his presidency). Obama is campaigning as he has governed — as an Old Democrat pandering to interest groups, engaging in big-spending crony capitalism while failing to address our structural economic concerns for the common good. Mitt Romney, if he recognizes the opportunity, could turn Obama’s campaign strategy into a goldmine for himself.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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New fox poll 46-39 obama????????????

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

and is actually two points lower than Jimmy Carter’s was at this point in 1980. (It is four points higher than George H. W. Bush’s job approval in 1992, however.

oh, nice dig/
Carter lost
Bush lost

He’s lower than most previous incumbents.

sense a pattern?

ted c on May 16, 2012 at 6:48 PM

I’ll go with teacher unions and the NEA for $2000 Alex.

jukin3 on May 16, 2012 at 6:51 PM

It’s simple. None of those who voted for McCain are going to vote for Obama. But millions who voted for Obama are going to vote for Romney.

Add to that metric, the millions of kids, blacks and other minorities who got out to vote only because Obama was the first black presidential candidate. Most of those will return to their usual political apathetic selves now that the bloom is off the rose.

keep the change on May 16, 2012 at 6:51 PM

It’s official!! Fox is now only polling registered interior decorators.

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

New fox poll 46-39 obama????????????

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

Three weeks ago, it was 46 to 46…meanwhile most other polls are going the other way.

I think this might be an outlier..time will tell..but it interesting to note that Obama’s numbers did not change. He is still at 46. Maybe it was just a screwy poll. I hope.

Terrye on May 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

New fox poll 46-39 obama????????????

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:47 PM

I cant find the sample. Anyway the only poll that matters is in November.

dogsoldier on May 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

It’s simple. None of those who voted for McCain are going to vote for Obama. But millions who voted for Obama are going to vote for Romney.

Add to that metric, the millions of kids, blacks and other minorities who got out to vote only because Obama was the first black presidential candidate. Most of those will return to their usual political apathetic selves now that the bloom is off the rose.

keep the change on May 16, 2012 at 6:51 PM
———-

How do people post things like this with a straight face? How do you claim to have any idea what “millions” of people will do? lol.

If you really are that good, forget politics I need you to help me predict the winning lottery numbers.

Politricks on May 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Marquette has WI tied. Kos has Obama up 1 in WI. Even toilet paper PPP has Obama only up 1 in NC.

And its only May. If this keeps up, Obama is going to experience an asscoring of Hindenbergian proportions.

Chuck Schick on May 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

It’s official!! Fox is now only polling registered interior decorators.

rik on May 16, 2012 at 6:52 PM

..ye’re doin’ The Lord’s work, old son. Keep it up, take a few deep breaths and don’t obsess. We got five plus months to go.

Things will be fine.

The War Planner on May 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

Mitt Romney, if he recognizes the opportunity, could turn Obama’s campaign strategy into a goldmine for himself.

i’m a complete idiot, and even i know what a goldmine obama has left romney. keeping my fingers crossed that Mitt can hit this out of the park.

GhoulAid on May 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

:-D

The War Planner on May 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I cant find the sample. Anyway the only poll that matters is in November.

dogsoldier on May 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

True.

Terrye on May 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Chuck Schick on May 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

I think the PPP sample in NC was 48dems 34gop and they only got O+1

rik on May 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM

He’s not getting crushed because our entire popular culture is controlled by Liberal Baby Boomers, and Obama is the guy they’ve been waiting for since JFK was assasinated.

He’s not getting crushed because the Black population is “taking one for the team” by not complaining about how badly the economy is affecting them. If Obama was a White Democrat, his approval rating would be struggling to break 50%. If Obama was a White Republican, his approval rating would be 0%.

He’s not getting crushed because upper middle class White Liberals who are disillusioned with him still feel the need to root for the first Black POTUS.

He’s got a built in 42% approval firewall, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t lose in a landslide.

ardenenoch on May 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM

When it comes to elections Axelrod is our Santa Claus. Romney doesn’t have to do much, other than be thankful for the gifts that come his way.

fogw on May 16, 2012 at 7:01 PM

“David Brooks wonders why Obama isn’t getting “crushed””

There is a reason for that and it is bigger than Obama. The entire “progressive” theme is getting crushed globally. The countries that adopted those economic policies in Europe are seeing their economies fail. The countries that adopted the energy and environmental policies are seeing their electrical grid in danger of failure (Germany and potentially the UK). They are seeing the countries that did not buy into the “stimulus” meme succeed (Sweden and several Eastern European countries).

To cast off Obama would mean to admit that their larger policies, their entire ideology is a failure. They are not prepared to do that. They are not fighting for “Obama”, they could care less about Obama. They are fighting for the entire “progressive” model. Voting against Obama would mean admitting they were wrong and that the “progressive” model doesn’t work. What it is going to take is for someone prominent in that arena to stand up and say “I was wrong, it doesn’t work”. Then there will be a watershed event.

The climate isn’t warming. Sea level rise isn’t accelerating. The Arctic ice cap hasn’t melted. China is building dozens of nuclear power plants. The US has begun construction on two, is taking one that was finished but never started out of mothballs and is finishing one that was never completed after Three Mile Island.

James Lovelock, the creator of the whole Gaia movement has now come out and admitted he was wrong on climate. Australia has thrown out the progressives in New South Wales and in Queensland. Canada threw out the “progressives”.

Even winning in France wasn’t much of a win. Hollande isn’t all that staunch of a “socialist”.

The problem is that their world is caving in around them and if they relent on Obama, it might be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

crosspatch on May 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

The War Planner on May 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

How can breath while I’m gulping scotch???

rik on May 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

He’s not getting crushed because the Black population is “taking one for the team” by not complaining about how badly the economy is affecting them. If Obama was a White Democrat, his approval rating would be struggling to break 50%. If Obama was a White Republican, his approval rating would be 0%.

Among the Black population.

ardenenoch on May 16, 2012 at 7:03 PM

The War Planner on May 16, 2012 at 6:58 PM

How can breath while I’m gulping scotch???

rik on May 16, 2012 at 7:02 PM

:-D

..then slow down and I’ll join you in a couple of hours on QOTD.

By the way, anyone actually go over to KOS and read their threads? They pretty much think Obama’s a lock.

The War Planner on May 16, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Granted, the election is mostly a referendum on Obama and Romney’s 160-page economic plan is more a plan to have a plan than a plan.

Interesting comparison/contrast with 1980 — as is only appropriate for Carter II: Reagan was very much the man with the plan, while Carter basically wanted to keep on with what was already not working. At that time, Bush 41 was the man without the economic plan, which was why he ridiculed Reagan’s as “voodoo economics.”

Needless to say, Romney is more of a Bush 41 than a Reagan. Reagan’s plan would probably be seen by the Romney camp as too risky, since it did not follow the conventional wisdom on the economy, which is of course an echo of Bush 41′s “voodoo economics.”

I think in a similar scenario, the “risky plan” that looks like it could work is probably more effective than the non-plan that tries to avoid making a mistake.

All other things being equal, of course.

tom on May 16, 2012 at 7:07 PM

How do people post things like this with a straight face? How do you claim to have any idea what “millions” of people will do? lol.

If you really are that good, forget politics I need you to help me predict the winning lottery numbers.

Politricks on May 16, 2012 at 6:57 PM

Ahhh the smell of desperation from the “gimme something for nothing” class of O’Bots.

Harbingeing on May 16, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Do you want it to equal 12? My truth is that it is 11.4 Now, if you over-sample 04 by 25% and under-sample 08 by 20% you get 11.4. Science!

motionview on May 16, 2012 at 7:08 PM

…so always 40 some percent of the American population is always brain dead?

KOOLAID2 on May 16, 2012 at 7:09 PM

If you don’t like Obama then you are a racist.

Hence, Mitt 39 and Obama 46!

You don’t want to be a racist, yes?

Key West Reader on May 16, 2012 at 7:09 PM

People have found out they can vote themselves money from the treasury. If Obama gets a 2nd term, it’s Greece all over for us, but on a scale 100 times greater. Austerity is our only hope, which Romney may or may not do, but Obama, never. Obama wants people to think he’s a good guy by borrowing money we don’t have and giving it people who don’t work.

Paul-Cincy on May 16, 2012 at 7:10 PM

I cant find the sample. Anyway the only poll that matters is in November.

dogsoldier on May 16, 2012 at 6:55 PM

42D/34R/20I 913 reg. voters. Any poll that has one candidate below 40 has to be thrown out

tbrickert on May 16, 2012 at 7:10 PM

On ideology, Galston has a near perfect summary of the current state of play. “Both Obama and Romney are running as the tribunes of their party’s respective bases. That means that the election of 2012 will feature the widest gap between presidential candidates since at least 1984.”

I do have to wonder how people write such things with a straight face. Worse, you know when they say this that they believe Obama is a centrist, and Romney is really just far, far right. Unbelievable.

The only way there can be an extra wide gap this time is if Obama is a far-left extremist. Granted, he is, but he was one in 2008 as well.

tom on May 16, 2012 at 7:15 PM

The classic case is May 1980, when Carter was ahead of Reagan by 9%, despite a much higher misery index than today. A more useful reaction might be to treat Galston’s report as a prism through which to view the Romney and Obama campaigns.

Let’s remember that polling in 1980 called it too close to call until the final week and the only debate. Needless to add that Reagan killed it and went on to the first of two landslide victories.

Good times.

Happy Nomad on May 16, 2012 at 7:15 PM

tbrickert on May 16, 2012 at 7:10 PM

But why would Fox post such POS. It’s obviously a BS poll but why not internally check it before running with it. I wonder what Sean thinks about it?

rik on May 16, 2012 at 7:15 PM

keep the change on May 16, 2012 at 6:51 PM

This.

NeoKong on May 16, 2012 at 7:16 PM

“Why isn’t Obama getting crushed?”

He is…

… it’s just not being reported.

Seven Percent Solution on May 16, 2012 at 7:18 PM

rik on May 16, 2012 at 7:15 PM

That’s a great question. It’s as if they wanted to stop any momentum.

tbrickert on May 16, 2012 at 7:18 PM

The political perfect storm that swept Obama into office has been replaced with the Obama record;

That’s his real problem. The fantasy of “hope and change” has been replaced with the reality of incompetence and failure and corruption.

The unknown, inexperienced, “lightworker” politician who promised to bring transparency and accountability and efficiency to the federal government has presided over the most secretive, unaccountable (to the point of blatant lawlessness) and inefficient government we’ve ever had in our history.

Obama’s presidency has been a failure — a complete and massive failure, and one that we’ll be paying for for generations to come.

No amount of spin from his buddies in the MSM will be able to hide that ugly fact.

AZCoyote on May 16, 2012 at 7:22 PM

Strange that the news on the top and bottom of the hour hasn’t mentioned Obowma’s budget going down in flames in the Senate…

/

Seven Percent Solution on May 16, 2012 at 7:22 PM

If you don’t like Obama then you are a racist.

Hence, Mitt 39 and Obama 46!

Key West Reader on May 16, 2012 at 7:09 PM

In 2012, I think the Bradley effect is overstated. White guilt isn’t nearly as strong as it once was. Even here in Virginia we are over 40 years past the time when schools were segregated.

Happy Nomad on May 16, 2012 at 7:24 PM

It doesn’t take a genius to figure this one out. When was the last time a POTUS could count on so much wagon-circling on his behalf by the media? No, not even Clinton. The reason ObaMao doesn’t appear to be getting “trounced” at the moment is because the stampede that you’d expect to be started by the media hasn’t happened BECAUSE the media is protecting him. It’s that simple. So it’s not a question of why ObaMao isn’t getting “trounced.” It’s about how bad are things for ObaMao that even his sycophantic media hasn’t been able to spin things better. If Romney wins it will be in spite of the media, not because of it. Under normal circumstances it would be the media who started the stampede against a failed presidency. They will not do it this time until they literally have no choice.

cicerone on May 16, 2012 at 7:24 PM

I’m with Seven Percent Solution at 7:18. He’s on the way to getting crushed, there’s just some inertia in how polls are showing people’s preferences.

wordsson on May 16, 2012 at 7:25 PM

He’s got a built in 42% approval firewall, but that doesn’t mean he still can’t lose in a landslide.

ardenenoch on May 16, 2012 at 7:00 PM

I honestly feel it will be a landslide. I think an enormous amount of voters will do completely the OPPOSITE
of what they tell pollsters, pals, coworkers and even family…

From now until November every single media outlet and virtually every poll will be telling us Teh One is a lock and I believe when the smoke clears after the election it will be a resounding defeat of Obama and more importantly his leftist principles. The country is moving right again fast, tey always do when Dems over-reach and Obama/Reid/Pelosi/dems in general have waaaaaaay over reached this time, like no other reach/grab in history.

Tim Zank on May 16, 2012 at 7:28 PM

He is…

… it’s just not being reported.

Seven Percent Solution on May 16, 2012 at 7:18 PM

I would say there is a lot of truth to that, too. An example would be the PPP poll that shows Obama +1 over Romney but they had to get a 12% oversample of Democrats in order to show a 1% lead.

Obama is going to get his a$$ handed to him in November at this rate and it is his own fault. I am already hearing among younger voters around me that “Obama is no different from any other politician” when in 2008 all we heard is how “Obama is going to be so much different from any other politician”.

And that is among Democrat voters under 30 in the San Francisco Bay area. He is in deep trouble and there really isn’t time to pull it out because anything he does at this point is going to look like campaign posturing, which it is.

crosspatch on May 16, 2012 at 7:29 PM

O.K., call me a cynic, but that FOX poll seems fishy as hell. I’d like to know who was sampled and exactly how the questions were phrased. Was it all U.S., or California and New York State? Sometimes I think FOX bends over backward to appear “balanced”. That, or they want Barry to quote them and maybe even offer them an “exclusive” interview in the future. Maybe they just hit up people who hate FOX in general and went against Romney just for spite. Silly, I know, but it just doesn’t make sense.

BettyRuth on May 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Oh my, indeed. FOX NEWS: Obama 46, Romney 39

HotAir Readers: But…but…Fox is a known left-wing organization! Pay no mind to it.

inthemiddle on May 16, 2012 at 7:32 PM

David Brooks wonders why Obama isn’t getting “crushed

So much of this is focused on Obama, from economic fundamentals to the supposed emerging Democratic majority. What about the explanation that Romney’s just a bad candidate?

Stoic Patriot on May 16, 2012 at 7:33 PM

BettyRuth on May 16, 2012 at 7:31 PM

see for yourself
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

tbrickert on May 16, 2012 at 7:36 PM

He’s not getting crushed because Romney’s credibility as an alternative is (deservedly) minimal and because the Republican Party spent their primary season painting themselves into a corner.

urban elitist on May 16, 2012 at 7:37 PM

By the way, anyone actually go over to KOS and read their threads? They pretty much think Obama’s a lock.

The War Planner on May 16, 2012 at 7:06 PM

I have no problem with them living in a fools paradise; Just makes them lazy and stupid to think there’s a lock in store for them. Maybe they’ll be too busy figuring out how to buy booze with their food stamps to bother voting if they think there’s no contest.

BettyRuth on May 16, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Obama is campaigning as he has governed — as an Old Democrat pandering to interest groups, engaging in big-spending crony capitalism while failing to address our structural economic concerns for the common good.

And Tom Coburn (republican)
is providing him with political cover
Who is Tom Coburn endorsing for President?

Dr Evil on May 16, 2012 at 7:38 PM

A lot of the reason Obama’s “not getting crushed” in the polls is that people are lying enthusiastically to pollsters, and will continue to do so all the way up to Nov 6, so they don’t get branded as racists, put on some enemy’s list, or reported to attack watch or whatever.

Harbingeing on May 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Oh my, indeed. FOX NEWS: Obama 46, Romney 39

HotAir Readers: But…but…Fox is a known left-wing organization! Pay no mind to it.

inthemiddle on May 16, 2012 at 7:32 PM

haha yup pretty much. Or, “the only poll that counts is in November”. For a fun trip through the looking glass, take a look at the NYT poll thread where Romney was up by three. The tune is, shall we say, a tiny bit more deferential to the poll of the moment.

cjw79 on May 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

A lot of the reason Obama’s “not getting crushed” in the polls is that people are lying enthusiastically to pollsters, and will continue to do so all the way up to Nov 6, so they don’t get branded as racists, put on some enemy’s list, or reported to attack watch or whatever.

Harbingeing on May 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

**raucous laughter**

cjw79 on May 16, 2012 at 7:41 PM

Look, Obama is being crushed. I’ve been watching politics for years and I’ve seen smooth and I’ve seen rough. Clinton, smooth, Obama, rough.

In 2008, the Obama campaign made so many mistakes that, were it not for the “elect the black guy” meme, they would have lost in a landslide to McCain/Palin. What did they have? The Republicans had a governor, with more experience than Obama, yet the country got caught up in the meme, “Elect the black guy.” It is now 2012 and we know how that worked out. I don’t care about the polls, I don’t care about the lying press, I don’t care who says what, I honestly don’t believe the country is dumb enough to re-elect Obama President. Anything’s possible, but I just do not believe it can be done.

The only way Obama can be elected is if the whole country forgets about the last 4 years. We’ve been called racists. We’ve watched unqualified individuals, who couldn’t pass a Senate confirmation hearing, be appointed as Czars and running things they had no business running. We’ve watched a President carry out a foreign policy that was created in the faculty lounge at Harvard, and end up losing the confidence and trust of our valued allies. What more does it take.

The Mainstream Media has totally sacrificed their integrity covering all of this up and they expect us to believe their lying polls, which they rig by polling many more democrats than they should, and wonder why their favorite candidates poll numbers are in the toilet.

Obama’s poll numbers would be in the 30′s if people weren’t afraid to tell the truth and be afraid of being called racists because they don’t agree with his policies. There is nothing that tells the truth about the upcoming election, except the completed elections themselves. McConnell, Christie, Brown, and soon to be Walker. 3 of those 4 are in previously Democrat strongholds. Does anyone thing the MSM has any reason to ask a question or 2 about what’s happening? They’re in never-never land trying to concoct a way to get Obama re-elected, rather than looking at his failures and reporting them. They should be ashamed of themselves, but they’ve made their bed and they will lie in it.

bflat879 on May 16, 2012 at 7:42 PM

Shep ahs convinced Fox to go after the National Enquirer fans!!

rik on May 16, 2012 at 7:42 PM

A lot of the reason Obama’s “not getting crushed” in the polls is that people are lying enthusiastically to pollsters, and will continue to do so all the way up to Nov 6, so they don’t get branded as racists, put on some enemy’s list, or reported to attack watch or whatever.

Harbingeing on May 16, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Just like last election, when the polls got it all wrong.

urban elitist on May 16, 2012 at 7:50 PM

The unlikely duo of James Pethokoukis and Juicebox Mafioso Ezra Klein explain how Brooks gets it wrong, arguing Obama’s buoyancy may be explained by the economic fundamentals and incumbency (although Klein does the latter implicitly).

As If David Brooks trouser analysis could possibly be faulty/

Dr Evil on May 16, 2012 at 7:50 PM

“Why isn’t Obama getting crushed?”

Maybe he is:

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-obama-46-romney-39/

peski on May 16, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Crosspatch at 7:02 pretty much nails it.

Zomcon JEM on May 16, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Bush was so bad that Obama will get re-elected. It takes 8 years to get the taste of bad Bush out of your mouth.

ZippyZ on May 16, 2012 at 8:18 PM

People just don’t fully appreciate the magic this President brings to the office. For example: George Washington crossed the Delaware to defeat the Hessians in Trenton, NJ. Barack Obama has a Vice President from Delaware who once filled up at a Hess station in Trenton, NJ. Isn’t that AMAZING!!

crosspatch on May 16, 2012 at 8:21 PM

Simple to accomplish if Romney chooses to do so:
1) Open up domestic oil/gas exploration with the pipeline and the Colorado/Utah area.
2) Every contract between the government and private companies that involve drilling will be enforced by the USA against environmentalists and animal rights activists. Since the liberals believe government is the “all knowing-all seeing-all greatness” then these groups should not be questioning their motives. Also, contract law should be enforce by the lessor.
3) Start selling off government land to pay off our national debt. All proceeds will go directly to that and not into the government coffers.
4) Repeal Bacon/Davis, which was a discriminatory law, and open up government contracts to minority companies, regardless of union status.
5) End prevailing wages which cause the government (which is the largest purchaser in the US) to pay premium rates to get things done.

djaymick on May 16, 2012 at 8:49 PM

see for yourself
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2012/05/16/fox-news-poll-presidential-race/

tbrickert on May 16, 2012 at 7:36 PM

I read the methodology as Dems 42%, Repub 34% for this poll.

chewydog on May 16, 2012 at 8:49 PM

If you dont like Obama your racist. If you do like Obama your racist. If your Black and you vote for Obama its only because your Black. If your white and you vote for Obama its only because he’s Black. People say they will vote for Obama to pollsters because they dont want to get labeled as racist ( I remember this one from 2008)

You guys are all over the place lol.

Politricks on May 16, 2012 at 9:50 PM

Why isn’t Obama getting crushed?

The crease in his trousers ?

Bmore on May 16, 2012 at 10:12 PM

Why isn’t Obama getting crushed?

Because it’s MAY.

Wolfmoon on May 16, 2012 at 10:55 PM

Obama isn’t getting crushed because the media gives him a pass on everything instead of a 24/7 drumbeat on how incompetent he is.

In other words, they shill for him. the exact opposite of what they did to Bush.

Monkeytoe on May 17, 2012 at 7:58 AM

Why isn’t Obama getting crushed?

Because we live in a country that elected this clown as one of its 100 most respected and powerful leaders. Who’s next, Caligula’s horse?

Knott Buyinit on May 17, 2012 at 10:03 AM

Why isn’t Obama getting crushed?

People are too conditioned to political correctness to say that the first Black President is a utter failure and that they plan to toss his a$$ from office in the November election. Its a “Bradley Effect” of sorts.

famous amos on May 17, 2012 at 5:25 PM