Daily Kos poll of Wisconsin: Scott Walker leads by five, Romney within one point of Obama

posted at 6:50 pm on May 15, 2012 by Allahpundit

Don’t get too excited about the Obama/Romney number. Wisconsin hasn’t turned red since 1984, so if Mitt ends up winning there this year it’ll likely be because he’s riding a landslide wave that’s sweeping all sorts of unlikely states into his column. It’s not going to decide the election, in other words, unless Obama holds onto it and wins with just slightly more than 270 votes.

The recall vote is another matter. Tom Barrett just won the Democratic recall primary and, according to this poll, has gotten an exciting zero-point bounce from it. Barrett is also mayor of Milwaukee and lost to Walker in 2010 — which is to say, Wisconsin voters have had a long time to value his stock. Like John McCormack says, there’s no reason to think anyone’s opinion of him will change over the next three weeks so, barring a turnout effort by big labor that’s somehow even more superhuman than the superhuman effort that’ll be turned in by Walker’s supporters, how exactly does Barrett win this?

A few things to note:

There does appear to be an enthusiasm gap that’s favoring the GOP right now. Among registered voters (as opposed to likely voters), the race was a point tighter, with Walker up 49-45…

As a consequence, the numbers in the presidential race are far, far closer than anyone expects to see this fall, with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney just 47-46 among RVs (and the same spread among LVs). But that further buttresses the notion of an enthusiasm gap for the recall, because the June electorate is definitely looking more Republican-friendly than the November one.

Could be that I’m reading the crosstabs wrong or that dKos made a mistake in transcribing them but it looks to me like the sample is 28D/35R/37I, which is wildly different from the 39D/33R/29I from the 2008 Wisconsin presidential exit poll. Is that sample specially weighted for the recall, possibly to reflect greater GOP enthusiasm? And is GOP enthusiasm really that much greater? Good lord. Also, how can it be that Obama leads Romney by fully 18 points among independents and yet by just one thin point overall? I’m missing something here, obviously.

For your viewing pleasure, via the Examiner, enjoy the surreal spectacle of an Obama campaign official complaining about the results of … a New York Times poll. Note to Team O: If you don’t like the fact that people perceive O’s gay-marriage “evolution” as opportunistic, why not try to find the silver lining in that result instead of whining about it? Debbie Wasserman-Schultz did!


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Wisconsin hasn’t turned red since 1984, so if Mitt ends up winning there this year, it’ll likely be because he’s riding a landslide wave that’s sweeping all sorts of unlikely states into his column. It’s not going to decide the election, in other words, unless Obama holds onto it and wins with just slightly more than 270 votes.

I disagree. Wisconsin (10 EVs) is one of those states that could help make up for, say, a failure to flip Virginia (13 EV).

aunursa on May 15, 2012 at 6:55 PM

If Romney is within a few points in Wisconsin in Nov. then Obama is going to lose big, probably by 5-7% overall.

Ta111 on May 15, 2012 at 6:55 PM

Waterloo?

Let’s not start that again.

It worked so well with 0bamacare.

cozmo on May 15, 2012 at 6:57 PM

BHO, you fluking loser. The mere peasants are rejecting you en mass. Resign. Do us all a favor.

msupertas on May 15, 2012 at 6:57 PM

math is hard
-dkos

cmsinaz on May 15, 2012 at 6:58 PM

I wanna see the Robert Gibbs/White House/ABC/USA Today poll. That will tell us where we stand.

msupertas on May 15, 2012 at 7:00 PM

People are just sick of him.

Conservative4ev on May 15, 2012 at 7:00 PM

Yeah sure AP, how many times did we hear *waterloo* during the Obamacare affair.. every other day and look what happened. Stupid term.

chango butt on May 15, 2012 at 7:02 PM

With Iowa in play, thusly is Wisconsin.

SouthernGent on May 15, 2012 at 7:04 PM

you sure they didn’t the weight the sample?

rob verdi on May 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Let’s not start that again.

It worked so well with 0bamacare.

cozmo on May 15, 2012 at 6:57 PM

How was it wrong?

After Obamacare’s passage, the fortunes of the Democratic Party have gone nowhere but down.

KingGold on May 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Again, Honda V65 and ass “I want segregation” toner hardest hit.

WeekendAtBernankes on May 15, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Here’s what President Obama can do since Pro-Gay Marriage flip-flop didn’t help much:

A) Come out and suddenly support Polygamy!

B) Support Adoption Rights for Animals!
Who says Parakeets can’t raise children?

C) Support Marriage between an Animal and an Animal!

Varchild on May 15, 2012 at 7:06 PM

Hey ya’ll see this yet just on ABC news and up at my blog with a link

CBS Releases Zimmerman Medical Report… A Boo Boo It Was ABC News

The document describes Zimmerman as having suffered two black eyes, wounds to the back of the head, as well as a broken nose but that he declined both hospitalization

http://rightwingfringe.blogspot.com/

Aggie95 on May 15, 2012 at 7:07 PM

bush barely lost, and the repubs dominated there in 2010, so no it doesnt have to be a blowout to win wisc.

therightwinger on May 15, 2012 at 7:07 PM

Don’t get excited just yet. This is Wisconsin we’re talking about, they only just got their first paved road.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Could be that I’m reading the crosstabs wrong or that dKos made a mistake in transcribing them but it looks to me like the sample is 28D/35R/37I, which is wildly different from the 39D/33R/29I from the 2008 Wisconsin presidential exit poll. Is that sample specially weighted for the recall, possibly to reflect greater GOP enthusiasm? And is GOP enthusiasm really that much greater?

It is a very odd partisan split for Wisconsin, even after 2010 A few points of order:

- The last PPP/DKos partisan split was R+1, and the current Rasmussen was R+3.
- This obviously isn’t 2008, so that D+6 exit poll can be tossed.
- Take a look at how the “independents” break. This is the only poll I’ve seen all year where they break for the Dems.

That last point neatly cancels the rather-odd partisan split.

Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Heh! If a DailyKos poll has Romney within one of Obama then Romney is probably 5 points ahead.

iceman1960 on May 15, 2012 at 7:10 PM

Allah, does the Presidential poll use the same methodology as the recall poll?

midgeorgian on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Could be that I’m reading the crosstabs wrong or that dKos made a mistake in transcribing them but it looks to me like the sample is 28D/35R/37I, which is wildly different from the 39D/33R/29I from the 2008 Wisconsin presidential exit poll.

OK this is now officially 5 straight days of polling that massively oversamples Republicans. Is there an attempt to get Democrats and lefties demoralized enough to start working for Obama’s re-election. I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

For your viewing pleasure, via the Examiner, enjoy the surreal spectacle of an Obama campaign official complaining about the results of … a New York Times poll.

The New York Times is gay…!

/

Seven Percent Solution on May 15, 2012 at 7:12 PM

If Romney flips Colorado, Iowa and Ohio, he wins. If he also takes Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, he wins big.

crosspatch on May 15, 2012 at 7:12 PM

And I caught a story yesterday that local democrats are right ticked off at national democrats because they don’t think the national democrats are doing enough to save their goofy asses

Aggie95 on May 15, 2012 at 7:12 PM

OK this is now officially 5 straight days of polling that massively oversamples Republicans. Is there an attempt to get Democrats and lefties demoralized enough to start working for Obama’s re-election. I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Or is it that the term “Democrat” has become as dirty as “liberal”?

Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2012 at 7:13 PM

The New York Times is gay…!

/

Seven Percent Solution on May 15, 2012 at 7:12 PM

rofl..:)

Dire Straits on May 15, 2012 at 7:15 PM

Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Very good analysis!!..:)

Dire Straits on May 15, 2012 at 7:17 PM

Could be that I’m reading the crosstabs wrong or that dKos made a mistake in transcribing them but it looks to me like the sample is 28D/35R/37I, which is wildly different from the 39D/33R/29I from the 2008 Wisconsin presidential exit poll.

That’s an odd sample, but from other polls it sounds like Walker has a slight lead. I hope it continues…I really want the Dems to have egg on their face with that one.

As for Romney possibly winning WI, that’d be nice. But I’m not expecting or counting on it. I just want him to get 270…anything else is gravy.

changer1701 on May 15, 2012 at 7:17 PM

If Obama loses I will be trolling every lib forum and comments section like it is nobody’s business.

The Notorious G.O.P on May 15, 2012 at 7:19 PM

Yeah sure AP, how many times did we hear *waterloo* during the Obamacare affair.. every other day and look what happened. Stupid term.

chango butt on May 15, 2012 at 7:02 PM

AP is short on creativity. He thinks the same terms he uses over and over again are clever.

The Notorious G.O.P on May 15, 2012 at 7:24 PM

…if JugEars wins any state…the population should be institutionalized!

KOOLAID2 on May 15, 2012 at 7:27 PM

How was it wrong?

After Obamacare’s passage, the fortunes of the Democratic Party have gone nowhere but down.

KingGold on May 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Because 0bama won. He doesn’t care about the his party the democrat party, he cares about 0bama.

Every time we thought the bloodsucker 0bamacare was put down, it rose again. And it ain’t dead yet.

cozmo on May 15, 2012 at 7:27 PM

OK this is now officially 5 straight days of polling that massively oversamples Republicans. Is there an attempt to get Democrats and lefties demoralized enough to start working for Obama’s re-election. I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Sometimes you say such sensible things. Baffles me that you ever believed leftist politicians have your interests in mind. You are a pawn they use to cling (bitterly) to power.

I suspect you will have had your fill of the turd sandwich in a few years or less and walk away from the dem party for good.

WeekendAtBernankes on May 15, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Or is it that the term “Democrat” has become as dirty as “liberal”?

Ummm… aren’t they the same thing?

We should probably stop calling them two different words with the same meaning, and save print and breath to put them in the same word… like maybe libocrats or demolibs?

PackerFan4Life on May 15, 2012 at 7:28 PM

Don’t get too excited about the Obama/Romney number.

Not to worry, AP. We’re talkin’ the Kos house pollster here. We all remember Markos’ last one.

whatcat on May 15, 2012 at 7:30 PM

New Rovin’s Poll:

Walker, common sense solutions—100%

Liberally induced UNIONS—-0%

Rovin on May 15, 2012 at 7:30 PM

Lou Dobbs just announced that obama called the college he just spoke at and offered himself. They had to disinvite the former speaker. His hubris never ends!

Bambi on May 15, 2012 at 7:31 PM

I don’t trust or believe anything coming from Kos.Most of the commenters are as vile as any of the left sites.

docflash on May 15, 2012 at 7:32 PM

There does appear to be an enthusiasm gap that’s favoring the GOP right now.

That’s easy to fix. Have Dicky Trumpka’s goons erect giant rats on the lawns of every single Wisconsin Democrat who is too uninterested to vote.

ardenenoch on May 15, 2012 at 7:33 PM

I was just watching hardball, and these people are totally desperate.

rubberneck on May 15, 2012 at 7:33 PM

If Obama loses I will be trolling every lib forum and comments section like it is nobody’s business.

The Notorious G.O.P on May 15, 2012 at 7:19 PM

..WE’RE ALL BREITBART ANGRYED!

The War Planner on May 15, 2012 at 7:33 PM

And I caught a story yesterday that local democrats are right ticked off at national democrats because they don’t think the national democrats are doing enough to save their goofy asses

Aggie95 on May 15, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Follow the #WIrecall hashtag on twitter, yeah, WI Dems are pretty fired up about the lack of support from the DNC. But honestly, if Walker beat Barrett once already, I don’t think Barrett brings anything new to the table this time.

It is a waste of time and money and I think the DNC realizes it.

As for oversampling Republicans, I dunno. I don’t know if these are actual or “weighted” numbers.

crosspatch on May 15, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Don’t get too excited about the Obama/Romney number. Wisconsin hasn’t turned red since 1984.

Isn’t Wisconsin actually udder pink?

AllahsNippleHair on May 15, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Baffles me that you ever believed leftist politicians have your interests in mind.

I know this is going to cause you to fall out, but I don’t consider Obama a leftist politician. Cue apoplexy.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Speaking of Walker…………..Oops!

politico tweeted:
*****************

Campaign signs for Gov. Scott Walker reportedly have been burned in two towns in Wisconsin:

http://t.co/OYdNogZw

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76339.html

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Why do people think Wisconsin is so difficult to win? Remember 2004? Kerry edged Bush 50% – 49% and if memory serves me right there was a lot of provable fraud but since Bush won there wasn’t any reason for a recount. I believe several democrats went to jail for slashing tires of Republican vans taking people to the polls that year. Kerry won by only 11,000 votes.

Capitalist Infidel on May 15, 2012 at 7:37 PM

Campaign signs for Gov. Scott Walker reportedly have been burned in two towns in Wisconsin:

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Because Scott Walker is actually Satan.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:39 PM

After Obamacare’s passage, the fortunes of the Democratic Party have gone nowhere but down.

KingGold on May 15, 2012 at 7:05 PM

Sure, but that really doesn’t matter if the bill is allowed to remain the law of the land going forward. These pieces of legislation have real, actual consequences outside the political realm and are not just footballs to be kicked back and forth.

Doomberg on May 15, 2012 at 7:40 PM

I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

I’m sure you say that a lot, Sandra.

AllahsNippleHair on May 15, 2012 at 7:40 PM

There’s a huge enthusiasm gap in Wisconsin. Wasn’t that clear in the primary?

It’ll be different in November.

joana on May 15, 2012 at 7:41 PM

“There’s a huge enthusiasm gap in Wisconsin. Wasn’t that clear in the primary?

It’ll be different in November.”

Not if the economy craters and Obamacare is fully declared unconstitutional.

Varchild on May 15, 2012 at 7:43 PM

That “poll” wasn’t “fair”! The NYT’s has been given its marching orders. ONLY good stories about The Chosen One! Only polls that show The One as being UP over Romney! What the hell do you think the NYT’s is, a freaking “news” paper?

GarandFan on May 15, 2012 at 7:45 PM

why not try to find the silver lining in that result instead of whining about it? Debbie Wasserman-Schultz did!

Oh my, she looks literally horrible. Wow.

/That face is all we need to know about the state of the “re-election” of Barack the Fairy Obama.

Sheesh!

Key West Reader on May 15, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I don’t trust or believe anything coming from Kos.Most of the commenters are as vile as any of the left sites.

docflash on May 15, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Hmmm…like maybe it’ll look more and more like a Romney victory and folks just stay home instead of voting and Obummer wins?

I wouldn’t put it past the Leftists to have engineered the use of negative poll numbers as some kind of advantage.

Dr. ZhivBlago on May 15, 2012 at 7:46 PM

unless Obama holds onto it and wins with just slightly more than 270 votes.
==========

I do hope thats Electoral College votes!!
(Thats sarc AP):)

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I know this is going to cause you to fall out, but I don’t consider Obama a leftist politician a man. Cue apoplexy.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Key West Reader on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 PM

I actually think Romney winning Wisconsin is very likely.

Dubya both times came within the margin of fraud of winning, in 2004, it was less than one percentage point.

If a Texas Governor that could barely form a sentence can come that close, Romney can definitely win, especially after all the nonsense Democrats have pulled lately and an incumbent President with a crashing economy.

BradTank on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 PM

I don’t trust or believe anything coming from Kos.Most of the commenters are as vile as any of the left sites.

docflash on May 15, 2012 at 7:32 PM

Their polling has actually been pretty solid in many respects over the years, despite their abhorrent commenters and blogs. The sample for this poll certainly does look off, but I do think Walker has the wind at his back for this one.

Daemonocracy on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 PM

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM
———————————–

Because Scott Walker is actually Satan.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Bishop:Lol,ahem,

thats the reek of lefty operative(Union Goonions)desperation,
and UnCivil Violence Intimidation!–:)

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Don’t get excited just yet. This is Wisconsin we’re talking about, they only just got their first paved road.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Bishop:

Good lord,reminds me of Ontario,I do wonder how Harley owners
ever found there way home on strange roads,when the oil,that
leaked,could only be found on the odd tiny pebbles,compared to
a nice leaked oil line on a smooth black top paved road!Haha
(Bishop…..kidding):)

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 7:56 PM

In some disaster films or stories it’s interesting when you see the preliminary signs, little omens of doom, that the unsuspecting characters don’t realize the significance.
A true story is The Great Peshtigo Fire, that happened in Wisconsin actually, in 1871 on the very same night as the great Chicago Fire. A couple thousand were killed, out of population of about 3000. An incredible fire: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peshtigo_Fire.
Anyway, it’s the little billowing puffs of smoke in the distance, the faint crackling sounds, that foretold the fate of a 19th century town that would soon be fully engulfed in flames. A firestorm.
I like to think, though we should resist overconfidence, maybe this and some other polls are like these preliminary omens… foretelling a disaster that looms for Obama.

anotherJoe on May 15, 2012 at 8:01 PM

If the libs lose,they will need a Crisis Intervention Command Centre,for Professional Mental Health first Responders….

to deal with the aftermath,especially…..

Teachers,
Union Reps,
members,
Goons/GoonEttes,
Operatives….
and Lefty Supporters!!!!!

canopfor on May 15, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Don’t get excited just yet. This is Wisconsin we’re talking about, they only just got their first paved road.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

wow, walkers budget reforms have really paid off.

t8stlikchkn on May 15, 2012 at 8:17 PM

BradTank on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Both times it was that close, and closer in 2000 than 2004 (5,000 vs 11,000).

Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2012 at 8:28 PM

I know this is going to cause you to fall out, but I don’t consider Obama a leftist politician. Cue apoplexy.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

Indeed. John Kennedy would no longer recognize his own party.

Schadenfreude on May 15, 2012 at 8:29 PM

I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

You’re a democrat. That’s not a bug, it’s a feature.

hawkdriver on May 15, 2012 at 8:39 PM

Skate each shift like it’s your last and like you’re three goals down.

Bruno Strozek on May 15, 2012 at 8:44 PM

It’s not going to decide the election, in other words, unless Obama holds onto it and wins with just slightly more than 270 votes.

wrong. just. plain. wrong.

WryTrvllr on May 15, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Don’t get excited just yet. This is Wisconsin we’re talking about, they only just got their first paved road.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:08 PM

Yet WI is so much better than the cr@phole state you reside in. Jealous much, hater? What, do you have an ex-wife that resides there that you spew so much hate?

chewmeister on May 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

chewmeister on May 15, 2012 at 9:33 PM

Easy chewmeister. Bishop ,usually, makes lots of sense.

What nobody seems to realize is that ALL of Wisconsin’s farms HEAVILY rely on reasonable electric prices. And 30 below winters also cause clairvoyance.

The state lives on coal. Those people are paying attention. That state is a toss up.

WryTrvllr on May 15, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Because Scott Walker is actually Satan.

Bishop on May 15, 2012 at 7:39 PM

Of course I could be wrong….

WryTrvllr on May 15, 2012 at 9:43 PM

I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

Used useless you got them both covered.

CW on May 15, 2012 at 9:52 PM

Wisconsin has a Democrat in the office if Secretary of State (Doug La Follette). This is the office that is responsible for overseeing the elections. 5 points might not be enough.

crosspatch on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 PM

Wisconsin has a Democrat in the office if Secretary of State (Doug La Follette). This is the office that is responsible for overseeing the elections. 5 points might not be enough.

crosspatch on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 PM

I have some good news and some bad news on that:

- The Secretary of State has had no role in Wisconsin’s elections for decades.
- Unfortunately, due to the machinations of former Democrat governor Jim “Craps” Doyle (WEAC/HoChunk-For Sale), the responsibility went from a bipartisan State Elections Board to a bunch of retired judges, all appointed by Doyle (the one Walker appointee out of 6 resigned at the end of last year).

Steve Eggleston on May 15, 2012 at 10:30 PM

Another good sign for Romney in November is the Senate election which will pit Dem über liberal Tammy Baldwin against popular former governor Tommy Thompson (or if not Thompson then Hovde or Fitgerald or Neumann.) Thepoint is that Baldwin will run strong in Dane county and Milwaukee and be absolutely crushed everywhere else.

Baldwin is going to be wiped out and I see her dragging Obama’s numbers in the process.

PackerBronco on May 15, 2012 at 10:44 PM

Is there an attempt to get Democrats and lefties demoralized enough to start working for Obama’s re-election. I feel used.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:11 PM

libfreeordie Julia, the gay is strong with President Hope & Change. Use the gay, Julia. Use the gay.

Gladtobehere on May 15, 2012 at 11:47 PM

BHO, you fluking loser. The mere peasants are rejecting you en mass. Resign. Do us all a favor.

msupertas on May 15, 2012 at 6:57 PM

While many would be repulsed by a President Biden, I would not. I see Slow-Joe the Gaffemaster sitting in a puddle of his own involuntary excretory effluent, paralyzed by fear and unable to convince any but the most ardent socialists to vote for his worthless arse in November. It would be exquisite.

swinia sutki on May 16, 2012 at 6:41 AM

I know this is going to cause you to fall out, but I don’t consider Obama a leftist politician. Cue apoplexy.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 7:36 PM

When you are so far to the left that the middle looks like the extreme right, I can understand why you believe that.

Of course, in fairness, we on the right make the same argument about Bush. He was not nearly as conservative as the media/left made him out to be. We believe he was actually mostly moderate with some conservative leanings. So, the activists on both sides of the aisle are always going to see their candidates as “less then” X and more moderate, while the other side is going to observe the opposite.

For Bush, the left saw the war in Iraq, tax cuts and abortion as making Bush far-right. We saw his spending, NCLB, Medicare Part B, and failure to stand up to dems as making him moderate.

For Obama, you look at his failure to pass single-payer or his “failure to stand up to the right” on tax-cuts or spending as making him “moderate”. (And, of course, this new argument that Obamacare is “centrist” or “conservative’ that has suddenly hit the blogs as if a memo of talking points was sent out). We look at his economic policies, Obamacare, foreign policy, regulatory policy, energy policy, social issues policy and rhetoric as making him far-left.

Monkeytoe on May 16, 2012 at 8:18 AM