Poll puts Walker up nine in recall fight; Update: WI Dems “furious” with DNC over lack of support

posted at 12:01 pm on May 14, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Now that Democrats have ended their divisive recall primary in Wisconsin, one would expect the polling to show their nominee to be gaining some traction against sitting Governor Scott Walker.  Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett was considered the stronger of the Democrats challenging Walker in the unusual recall election, and polls just after the recall showed him nearly within the margin of error of the incumbent.  This week, however, a new poll from We Ask America of over 1200 likely voters puts Walker on top by nine, 52/43:

While other polls also show Walker in the lead, no one is suggesting that this race is anywhere near over. Walker only leads among self-described Independent voters by 47.6%-44.6%, and the underlying numbers seem fluid. Still, some of Walker’s detractors have been vocal about the fact that Walker was duly elected in 2010 and in most states would not be able to be challenged with a recall without greater cause. And a whopping 95% of those called said they plan to vote in the June 5th election which will have the national spotlight on it.

The election takes place on June 5th, so if this is an accurate look at the race as it stands now, Barrett is in big trouble.  An incumbent with 52% three weeks before the election is going to be hard to beat under any circumstances, especially in a race with this kind of exposure.  It has drawn national attention for more than a year, which means that there won’t be many who already support Walker who will suddenly discover a reason to switch.  The same can’t be said for Barrett, who has only re-emerged into the spotlight after losing to Walker in 2010.

Since then, there are a few points about Barrett that Walker and his huge campaign warchest will make clear in the next three weeks.  On Friday, the Walker campaign released this 30-second spot, with music pointedly from Milli Vanilli:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=US&hl=en&client=mv-google&v=FFE5n9lHl7k&nomobile=1

The Walker campaign has the resources to bury Barrett’s message in reminders about how Barrett hiked fees, taxes, and spending in Milwaukee, leaving the city in worse financial shape than when he arrived.  In response, Barrett will have to explain how he would have balanced the budget differently than Walker did, without raising taxes or fees, and he’s got three weeks to explain. It’s not impossible — nothing’s impossible in politics — but it’s starting to look pretty unlikely that Barrett can make that sale.

Update: Greg Sargent reports that Wisconsin Democrats are going public with their anger over a lack of support from the DNC:

“We are frustrated by the lack of support from the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Governors Association,” a top Wisconsin Democratic Party official tells me. “Scott Walker has the full support and backing of the Republican Party and all its tentacles. We are not getting similar support.”

“Considering that Scott Walker has already spent $30 million and we’re even in the polls, this is a winnable race,” the Wisconsin Dem continues. “We can get outspent two to one or five to one. We can’t get spent 20 to one.”

According to the Wisconsin Dem, the party has asked the DNC for $500,000 to help with its massive field operation. While the DNC has made generally supportive noises, the money has not been forthcoming, the official says — with less than a month until the June 5th recall election. The DNC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

It apparently doesn’t look winnable to the DNC, which tells you all you need to know about the polls on which WI Democrats rely.

Update II: I mistakenly wrote 53/42 in the first paragaph; it should have been 52/43.  Thanks to Steve Eggleston for pointing it out to me.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

Yep, thanks for all of your insights, Steve.

hawkdriver on May 14, 2012 at 1:03 PM

Eventually the unions will tire of squandering their members’ money. I would say “hard-earned” money but these are state worker bureaudrones and so-called teachers we’re talking about. They get a paper cut they go out on disability. So, y’know, heck with ‘em. Except that Walker and the good guys have to fund-raise and spend to resist them, instead of doing the business of the cheeseheads…er, the people of Wisconsin. The local Dems might heed the national party and back off. The DNC, for their part is not withholding resources because of any strategic wisdom or brilliance. They are nominally led by Little Debbie, after all, who’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer. No the DNC is directed by Obama now and he couldn’t care less about voting blocs that are already in his pocket, vote-wise or funds-wise. So in this narrow sliver of an issue Obama and I are in agreement: the anti-Walker forces of Wisconsin can go scratch.

curved space on May 14, 2012 at 1:04 PM

The pro-Walker signs are getting bigger and bigger. They’re now mini-billboards on houses that face busy streets. Not everyone has the preprinted sign, so they’re making their own. There are some great “Burma Shave” style ones on 60, near Columbus. (Actually driving 60 from the lake west to Portage is a pleasure these days).

Want some fun? The chief economist for Wisconsin was taped showing the “jobs surveys”. The one that’s in all the news puts WI 50th in job creation, but he shows that it was “reset” last spring and hasn’t jibed with all the other reports since (unemployment, average income, income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, business tax revenue, new unemployment claims – all show economic improvement. It’s on youtube, but I found it at Maciverinstitute.com.

Daisy_WI on May 14, 2012 at 1:10 PM

LOL my youngest Brother ( AFL-CIO Member & Shop Steward) said Saturday that it’s a slam dunk – Walker is good as gone.
I eagerly await the flow of bitter tears upon his cheeks.

I cherish these good times with Family ~

angrycodgr on May 14, 2012 at 1:14 PM

LOL <= sums it up pretty good

kirkill on May 14, 2012 at 1:17 PM

This put a smile on my face, and was a great start to the week!

TeresainFortWorth on May 14, 2012 at 1:19 PM

#1 this ain’t the first rodeo in Wis for the Dems…supreme court election, the autumn senate recalls, the cost of mounting the recall petitions (they had some really nice motor coaches parked around the state), the recent primaries and now the final. add to that the suspension of mandatory political contributions (some would say union dues but we all know). and add to that is the fact that the “Walker flu” has taken hold in other states.

simply put, I think the DNC and unions are running out of money to burn here especially with a BIG campaign coming.

#2 stealing the election??? dunno…though the issue is on hold, I suspect the Dems will be particularly sensitive to it on this election so as not to supply ammo to the enemy…

#3 I thought “libfreeordie” was banned? or was that lib4life?

teejk on May 14, 2012 at 1:22 PM

They cant just beg corrupt unions, and their supporters in the media, for money?

Maybe even the DNC doesn’t think that it was wise to recall Walker, which goes against the will of the people, as shown both in the election and in the polls.

milcus on May 14, 2012 at 1:25 PM

I think the only thing that can save Trumka’s troops here is if the dems get JoAnne Kloppenburg into the race somehow.

The Klopper for the win!

Dack Thrombosis on May 14, 2012 at 1:25 PM

Unions again building an excuse for another recall attempt after they lose this one.

rickyricardo on May 14, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Wisconsin will be the barricades of 2012. As goes Wisconsin, so goes the nation in 2012.

Schadenfreude on May 14, 2012 at 1:26 PM

Wow, I hope if he wins it is this big. What a statement it would be. Walker and Christie are truly trend setters. I hope Romney is watching closely. Lesson: Make hard decisions that are grounded in common sense and you will get a lot of support.

closetgop on May 14, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Union leaders are getting the message from union members that they are fed up with the good and not so good jobs going to foreigners, that the workers’ visas are way high, especially for such dire times. If the leaders go with Obama they will be voted out. They know where the butter for their bread comes from.

Schadenfreude on May 14, 2012 at 1:27 PM

Hopefully Obama goes to stand next to his leftie buddy in Wisconsin. Don’t bank on it.

Schadenfreude on May 14, 2012 at 1:29 PM

Heck, he’s got your vote, he doesn’t need to show you any support or the dems for that matter. So take it on the chin (or some other place), but go vote for 0b0z0. Maybe in the next four years he might pay attention.

Bambi on May 14, 2012 at 1:36 PM

It apparently doesn’t look winnable to the DNC, which tells you all you need to know about the polls on which WI Democrats rely.

Team Zero saw the results from last Tuesday’s poll and decided to hang on to their cash. As you say the recall doesn’t look winnable and the dems have already spent a huge amount of money in an endeavor that was unlikely to succeed right from the outset.

dogsoldier on May 14, 2012 at 1:40 PM

Well only one thing left to do, “Barrett your going to have to come out in favor of gay marriage and get that money bomb going”.

DDay on May 14, 2012 at 1:44 PM

I’m inclined to think it’s just that the DNC is closely guarding all the cash it has. Obama has already indicated he isn’t going to help much (if at all) the D’s running for senate, house, or governorships. That’s money that the DNC had always expected to get to help in prior elections. While the DNC may yet give money to the WI D’s, I think more likely that they feel the national unions are helping them enough that they can keep the money they have to help out the cash-strapped D’s running for election in November.

After all, with the national unions pouring their fat pocketbooks into WI for the D’s why would they need any other help? And, of course, all the money the unions are pouring into this dwarfs anything the RNC is providing Walker.

Most of us in Wisconsin are well aware that the “real life” cash numbers are much more heavily weighted on the D side thanks to the national unions. If they continue to see polls showing Walker ahead you can bet your bottom dime that the national unions are going to dig deep to send more money over here.

PackerFan4Life on May 14, 2012 at 1:52 PM

terrible ad, and stupid to boot.

My own hope is that Walker wins by such a large margin that Romney selects him as vp, energizing conservatives from coast to coast.

It would also nail down Wisconsin. Very difficult for Obama to win without the upper midwest.

matthew8787 on May 14, 2012 at 1:55 PM

The Walker campaign has the resources to bury Barrett’s message in reminders about how Barrett hiked fees, taxes, and spending in Milwaukee, leaving the city in worse financial shape than when he arrived.

That would be a good idea, but the posted ad doesn’t make that point very well-it almost looks like an ad FOR Barrett.

Walker needs to criticize Barrett’s record in Milwaukee, then tout his own record about reducing the state deficit without raising taxes, and citing some of the major-city school districts whose costs have gone down (or whose employment has risen) due to Walker’s reforms.

A $30 million warchest is great, but it needs to be spent wisely.

Steve Z on May 14, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Unions again building an excuse for another recall attempt after they lose this one.

rickyricardo on May 14, 2012 at 1:26 PM

I believe I read in another thread… Wisconsin law only allows one recall per election term. So they can’t mount another recall even if they want to.

dominigan on May 14, 2012 at 2:25 PM

“Scott Walker has the full support and backing of the Republican Party and all its tentacles. We are not getting similar support.”

Ew. Who wants tentacles on them?

If I had more time and less maturity, I would organize a campaign to send fresh calamari to the WI Dem Party.

ChrisL on May 14, 2012 at 2:26 PM

It apparently doesn’t look winnable to the DNC, which tells you all you need to know about the polls on which WI Democrats rely.

lovin’ it.

Tim_CA on May 14, 2012 at 2:35 PM

The DNC does not have the manpower or the funds to help in Wisconsin, as they have diverted all resources into trying to sell obama’s “new” gay marriage stance.

Pork-Chop on May 14, 2012 at 2:53 PM

The Democratic Party badly wants Wisconsin to be just like Greece, or neighboring Illinois, or California, or New York.

What an absolutely crazy organization it is….

Please Democrats and leftists: Sober up, and STOP your war on fiscal responsibility.

Allendundit on May 14, 2012 at 2:59 PM

Generally Supportive noises-Who farted?

KornKing on May 14, 2012 at 3:02 PM

I WANT TO BE FRONT AND CENTER WITH SEARGENT SHULTZ on MSNBC the minute the final result is read. If Walker is defeated, well, I don’t live in Wisconsin and never will. If Walker triumps, Special Ed’s head explodes.

Marcus on May 14, 2012 at 3:07 PM

Walker only leads among self-described Independent voters by 47.6%-44.6%

I just can’t fathom why truly independent voters would side with Walker’s opposition. That state is already reaping loads of real-life benefits from Walker’s policies, while continuing the steady downhill slide of previous administrations would have turned them into another California. I question the independence of these “self-described independents”.

KS Rex on May 14, 2012 at 3:24 PM

Marcus on May 14, 2012 at 3:07 PM

take a number and get in line…

teejk on May 14, 2012 at 3:28 PM

a top Wisconsin Democratic Party official tells me. “Scott Walker has the full support and backing of the Republican Party and all its tentacles.”

——————————————————————

The squid calling the octopus a cephalopod…

Machismo on May 14, 2012 at 4:11 PM

It looks like its an economy where democrats in wisconsin are being told that “you’re on your own.”

ted c on May 14, 2012 at 4:14 PM

It does seem that the most worrisome aspect for the unions has to be the cessation of automatic dues collection, where the gov’t was responsible for deducting and forwarding. That caused me to wonder if there was ever a charge levied by the state government for the process of collecting union dues and sending them to the unions? I’m sure there’s a cost involved that got passed along to ‘someone’. Does anyone know?

CitizenEgg on May 14, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Our tentacles are more engaged than their tentacles.

unclesmrgol on May 14, 2012 at 4:51 PM

I just love how this whole recall thing started over public union reforms and, yet now that the recall is happening, the public-union supported candidate lost the primary and union reform seems to be about the last issue being talked about.

Bitter Clinger on May 14, 2012 at 12:40 PM

Kinda funny how that turned out. They know they can’t win on the collective bargaining thing. Then it was the war on women, and now they are screaming Walker’s going to be arrested on the MJS threads. They are desperate for that to happen.

wi farmgirl on May 14, 2012 at 5:40 PM

wi farmgirl on May 14, 2012 at 5:40 PM

He only has to get past June 5 I think…then arrested or not on the phony charges, I guess he stays on the job.

9 points is not enough…looks like another trip to Eau Claire to make it 30 points (message to the left…you wanted it, now deal with it).

teejk on May 14, 2012 at 5:59 PM

Here’s an interesting item on Walker’s challenger’s wife. http://mediatrackers.org/2012/05/14/exclusive-tom-barretts-wife-used-mps-email-to-lobby-enlist-campaign-help/

wi farmgirl on May 14, 2012 at 6:01 PM

So when they lose again are all the WI democrats going to run away to another state?

Scrappy on May 14, 2012 at 6:07 PM

DNC to Wi: You started it. You finish it. Oh, and BTW it’s every man for himself.

Red Creek on May 14, 2012 at 7:03 PM

I live around Appleton and had to drive to Milwaukee this weekend for a family event. I took a highway that runs along the eastern side of Lake Winnebago through many small, unincorporated towns and was blown away by the sheer number of “I Stand With Scott Walker” signs between Appleton and Fond Du Lac. I lost count around 50. Mind you, this is only about a 40 mile stretch.

Even in Milwaukee I saw more pro Scott Walker signs than I did recall signs; and most were bordering, how shall we say, a part of town you wouldn’t necessarily walk down the street at night unless you had your concealed carry permit and packing some heat.

Phoenix7 on May 14, 2012 at 7:43 PM

I wouldnt put much faith in the polls. Most folks I know wont answer because they are afraid of what may happen if they do. Same with yard signs. Although one of my neighbors has a “I stand with Walker” sign and his house is across from a school. The best support anybody here can give the Gov is their vote on June 5.

I like the one sign that says something like, “Scott Walker for all Wisconsin not a spoiled few.” It says it all

Claimsratt on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

So what happens in November? Do the unions and the WI Dembeciles get the vote out for Obrushoff or let him flap in the breeze?

stukinIL4now on May 14, 2012 at 8:16 PM

The pro-Walker signs are getting bigger and bigger. They’re now mini-billboards on houses that face busy streets. Not everyone has the preprinted sign, so they’re making their own. There are some great “Burma Shave” style ones on 60, near Columbus. (Actually driving 60 from the lake west to Portage is a pleasure these days).

Want some fun? The chief economist for Wisconsin was taped showing the “jobs surveys”. The one that’s in all the news puts WI 50th in job creation, but he shows that it was “reset” last spring and hasn’t jibed with all the other reports since (unemployment, average income, income tax revenue, sales tax revenue, business tax revenue, new unemployment claims – all show economic improvement. It’s on youtube, but I found it at Maciverinstitute.com.

Daisy_WI on May 14, 2012 at 1:10 PM

Yeah it was awesome hearing him talk about it. This guys is a non partisan person who has no political gain either way he reports.

This guys even went as far to say that it is much better than pre recession! Of course , we had Doyle in office during that time so this should not be all that hard to do.

Warning… to those that do listen to this report from him, its very dry and hard to listen to because he is an economist…

Do not forget about the “thank you Scott Walker” signs too.

I can not see how Barret is going to pull this out with so little time for the election.

watertown on May 14, 2012 at 8:34 PM

Recent articles here indicate he’s pretty much owned by the unions. I’m surprized he hasn’t been compelled to do something along those lines. Then again, would you really want the Left’s perception of Rush Limbaugh personified, stumping for you? Ed is just a cranky old liberal.

hawkdriver on May 14, 2012 at 12:56 PM

Your last two sentences are 100% dead-on right.

Ed is the complete personification of all the classic stereotypes liberals have about Rush (mean-spirited, bigoted, sexist, cranky, not a serious political commentator, bought-and-paid-for by a political movement). Of course few if any of these liberals actually have bothered to listen to Rush, so they’d never know the irony.

If anything, I want to watch Ed’s show when Scott prevails in a crushing landslide. It would make my day seeing him placed in a straightjacket on live TV.

Myron Falwell on May 14, 2012 at 8:41 PM

I just love how this whole recall thing started over public union reforms and, yet now that the recall is happening, the public-union supported candidate lost the primary and union reform seems to be about the last issue being talked about.

Bitter Clinger on May 14, 2012 at 12:40 PM

They can’t because they soon saw that because the sky did not fall… they lost a huge talking point. Teachers did not lose their jobs… in fact more got hired. I can not say this enough: The areas where teachers did lose their jobs are in areas where the unions forced the school boards to rush the new contracts though before the CB law became law. Now of course those contracts handcuffed the school districts and they had to cut somewhere.

A good majority of schools districts have seen great savings over all… heck there is a story about a school who can now afford to redo the football field now that has not been re done sense the 60′s because they now can afford it.

Taxes did not go up, property taxes stayed flat and in some cases went down, jobs are coming back, the state is actually in the green…what is there to hit Walker on? Nothing besides this so called “John Doe” garbage. At most , having someone do campaign stuff on tax payer time… if they like to go that road… what about Barrets wife? She did the same thing … not that its fair to drag her though the mud… but if its not good for some staffer to do it, why is it okay for a persons wife who is running for office okay? Where is the investigation on that?

watertown on May 14, 2012 at 8:43 PM

In keeping with the Democrat’s distraction of the week…

You guys are going down in flames on this one

Not-a-Marxist on May 15, 2012 at 8:18 AM

I wouldnt put much faith in the polls. Most folks I know wont answer because they are afraid of what may happen if they do. Same with yard signs. Although one of my neighbors has a “I stand with Walker” sign and his house is across from a school. The best support anybody here can give the Gov is their vote on June 5.

I like the one sign that says something like, “Scott Walker for all Wisconsin not a spoiled few.” It says it all

Claimsratt on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

We won’t put a sign out due to vandalism and harassment. I think it is going to be way bigger than people think now that I am seeing all the signs out. There are more everyday.

wi farmgirl on May 15, 2012 at 9:01 AM

It apparently doesn’t look winnable to the DNC, which tells you all you need to know about the polls on which WI Democrats rely.

Bingo! They probably don’t have the money to do it anyway since Obundler won’t share. He probably doesn’t have any to spare.

Kissmygrits on May 15, 2012 at 10:11 AM

This is all about the unions, and in particular the public employee unions. So they should pay for Mayor Barrett’s campaign. They are the only ones who would benefit if Barrett wins.

J Baustian on May 15, 2012 at 11:11 AM

Comment pages: 1 2