NYT/CBS poll: Romney 46, Obama 43

posted at 7:43 pm on May 14, 2012 by Allahpundit

The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.

Maybe Karl was right about that “turning point.”

The bombshell number, obviously, is Romney leading O by two among women. If that happens on election day, rest assured that the overall margin will be a lot wider than three points. So what’s driving the sudden Mittmania? It’s probably not the economy:

Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 – months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.

Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama’s performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved.

Not a terrible poll for O and yet suddenly he’s fading among a key demographic. What explains the downturn? Probably an insta-backlash to his “evolution” on gay marriage:

While 25 percent say the president’s support for same-sex marriage makes them less likely to support his reelection, 16 percent say his position makes them more likely to support him. Fifty-eight percent say the announcement will not affect how they vote…

Asked if they had to decide if same-sex marriage should be legal, 51 percent said no, including 81 percent of Republicans, 25 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents. Forty-two percent said yes, including 13 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independents.

That 42/51 split on gay marriage is sharply lower than what Gallup found last week. Given Romney’s closing of the gender gap here, support for SSM must also be sharply lower among women (there are no crosstabs by gender) even though most women said they favor gay marriage in Gallup’s poll today. As for the 16/25 split on those who say O’s SSM shift will make them more/less likely to vote for him, that’s similar to the 13/26 split that Gallup found when it asked the same question last week. Among independents, Gallup had the split 11/23. NYT/CBS sees something similar there too:

This result probably isn’t helping him either:

On second thought, is that result helping him? Could be that some people who would otherwise support his shift on gay marriage have been turned off because he’s been so transparently cynical and opportunistic about it. But since he’s losing votes on this issue on balance, I’m thinking maybe the opposite is true — maybe some in his base, like black evangelicals, are inclined to let him slide for taking a position they find immoral precisely because they don’t think he’s embraced it on principle.

The money question for O is whether the gay-marriage backlash will last or whether it’s a fleeting reaction to all the headlines about it last week. If it does hold up for a few more weeks, Romney’s going to be sorely tempted to start spending some time on it on the stump even at the expense of his “economy, economy, economy” message. But maybe he doesn’t need to; such was the media attention to Obama’s “evolution” that everyone’s already heard about it, which means all he really needs to do is nudge voters on it now and then as a reminder.


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Of course it is because of Gay Marriage. Obama coming out in favor of this insanity most likely cost him the election. Consumer confidence is way up, so the economy is less of a concern than it has been, particularly among independent voters who also overwhelmingly oppose Gay Marriage.

Norwegian on May 14, 2012 at 10:36 PM

The money question for O is whether the gay-marriage backlash will last or whether it’s a fleeting reaction to all the headlines about it last week.

Will it last?

Hell yes. It may quiet down for a couple of weeks during the summer, but once the Dem convention starts in North Carolina the media will be full of gays bashing the amendment one vote. Once they get riled up, the idiocy will continue all the way to election day.

BacaDog on May 14, 2012 at 10:45 PM

I wonder about O’s internal polling. Is this why the sudden pivot to Bain?

rubberneck on May 14, 2012 at 10:47 PM

People voted FOR Obama because they hoped that we could get past the black/white thing. Everyone was tired of it.

But it all a big con. Obama did nothing but divide us.

Voters are pissed.

faraway on May 14, 2012 at 10:50 PM

He’s going down quicker than Bawney Fwank at a K street apartment party.

SaysWho on May 14, 2012 at 10:52 PM

Obama did nothing but divide us.

Voters are pissed.

faraway on May 14, 2012 at 10:50 PM

Now that’s a question I wish they’d poll.

Around my water-cooler I hear the same thing. He’s set race relations back 50 years.

BacaDog on May 14, 2012 at 10:54 PM

Please forgive me for this but YAWN! another poll

gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 10:57 PM

5% of Republicans would vote for Obama.

aunursa on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

How could ANY republican vote for Obama. I can’t understand it

gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Voters are reacting positively to the stories of Romney’s generosity – giving free haircuts as a teen, for example.

Chuck Schick on May 14, 2012 at 11:04 PM

CW on May 14, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I think he needs an intervention. Drag him from his keyboard, hose him down and then lock him out of the house for a few hours. “What’s that big yellow thing in the sky???”

Bradky on May 14, 2012 at 11:07 PM

If this keeps up and Romney wins the election the HA35 will need to party with Susan Estrich ala 2004. “Let’s slur cuyahoga county together on the count of three!” followed up by a rendition of Billy Joel’s Goodnight Saigon

Bradky on May 14, 2012 at 11:15 PM

Romney is out there every day focused on the one thing that most ordinary Americans are worried about—the economy. He’s mature and presidential.

Then you’ve got Obama grandstanding on ABC/NBC, flitting around the country partying with rich celebrities, unpresidential, immature, playing stupid games.

I would think most reasonable people who are struggling to survive in this economy would be tired of Obama’s foolish antics.
That Newsweek cover may have been the tipping point for many people.

bailey24 on May 14, 2012 at 11:15 PM

The guy needs some kind of treatment… He lives up to his name a bit too much methinks.

SauerKraut537 on May 14, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Just because someone strongly disagrees with you doesn’t make him crazy. Especially when he disagrees with you on whether or not Romney will do anything good for small government conservatism in this country.

It is quite clear that Romney has governed in the past as a center-left, big government statist. Now, that is certainly not dispositive as to how he might govern as president, but it certainly makes it a “non-crazy” position that he’ll do the same as President. Ignoring or rationalizing away the possibility is delusional. Romney needs to be held accountable for his record and if nobody is going to do it now, I’m not confident that it’s going to happen if/when he becomes president.

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:22 PM

5% of Republicans would vote for Obama.

aunursa on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

How could ANY republican vote for Obama. I can’t understand it

gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Because if conservatives don’t hold a President Romney accountable for his record, there will be a train wreck of epic proportions in 2014/16. And I’m not seeing a whole lot of people trying to hold Romney accountable.

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Voters are reacting positively to the stories of Romney’s generosity – giving free haircuts as a teen, for example.
Chuck Schick on May 14, 2012 at 11:04 PM

Evidently moreso than the gay canine muncher.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:26 PM

Downpressor man.
The rocks will be melting.

Kenosha Kid on May 14, 2012 at 11:34 PM

How could ANY republican vote for Obama. I can’t understand it
gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Because if conservatives don’t hold a President Romney accountable for his record, there will be a train wreck of epic proportions in 2014/16. And I’m not seeing a whole lot of people trying to hold Romney accountable.
besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:25 PM

We had one candidate that wanted to spend more time talking about birth control than the economy. We had another call the Ryan Plan “right-wing social engineering”. And, we had another candidate endorse the Ryan Plan and campaign with Paul Ryan. We nominated that guy. Your move.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:35 PM

The anti-Mitts are losing hair.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

It’s not the 2012 polls that I’m concerned about. It is the 2014 and 2016 polls if Romney governs in a manner consistent with his record.

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 9:43 PM

Yes, we shall see. You’re still going bald :)

thebrokenrattle on May 14, 2012 at 11:36 PM

50% approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy……bull (expletive) ! ! !

Long haired country boy on May 14, 2012 at 8:16 PM

.
I think that speaks for a lot us, here.

WHAT recovery ? ! !

listens2glenn on May 14, 2012 at 11:36 PM

Oh, look. Another ‘bot who got in a few months ago passing judgement on who’s really a conservative.

ddrintn on May 14, 2012 at 9:39 PM

A Mittbot? Moi?

Lulz

Not even close. I am a political agnostic when it comes to politicians and political parties. I was active in politics for a while but got out when I had to choose between honesty and influence. For over ten years I have been telling people there is not a dime’s worth of difference between the Republican and Democratic establishments.

Let’s compare being a conservative to wearing a three piece suit. There’s the Constitutional coat, the Social vest and the Financial pants.

If you don’t wear the vest, people probably won’t notice.

If you don’t wear the coat, people won’t take you seriously.

If you don’t wear the pants, people will talk about you … but not in a good way.

If you won’t wear any of them? I’ve got some bad news for you, Emperor.

I call them like I see them. If it walks like a liberal and squawks like a liberal, you know what? It’s a liberal.

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 11:44 PM

Because if conservatives don’t hold a President Romney accountable for his record, there will be a train wreck of epic proportions in 2014/16. And I’m not seeing a whole lot of people trying to hold Romney accountable.

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Holding Romney accountable …

… that happens AFTER the election. Hopefully there will be a lot of fresh new faces in the House and Senate to help him see the light.

From my perspective, Romney at his worst is better for the country than four more years of Obama the Corrupt Incompetent.

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 11:50 PM

We had one candidate that wanted to spend more time talking about birth control than the economy. We had another call the Ryan Plan “right-wing social engineering”. And, we had another candidate endorse the Ryan Plan and campaign with Paul Ryan. We nominated that guy. Your move.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:35 PM

Your statement about Santorum is blatantly false. It is true that he wanted to talk about it more than zero, which is what I would have preferred, but more than about the economy? Please.

Your statement about Gingrich is true and is a major mark against him. But, he had a much better record as Speaker than Romney had as governor. And, I don’t think that anyone will argue that conservatives didn’t pound the snot out of him for the statement.

Romney’s support of the Ryan plan is, I guess, a mark in his favor, but it’s not like the Ryan plan is some massive austerity program. It barely touches entitlements, a major problem. But, I guess it’s a start and Romney should be applauded for expressing support of it.

Let’s not pretend that his expressed support means that he actually supports it, or that he’d fight to get it through, however. His expressed support of Ryan’s Plan doesn’t change the fact that he had an awful record as governor. A record that he calls “severely conservative.” If he thinks that a record that prominently displays Romneycare as a centerpiece is “severely conservative,” I’m really worried about what he’s going to do if/when he gets in the White House.

He needs to be held accountable and, quite frankly, I don’t see how he is being held accountable when he can go out there and say that his record was “severely conservative” and that Romneycare is “fundamentally conservative.” He needs to admit that while Romneycare may have been subjectively the best that he could do for MA, it is not objectively a good program. Absent that, people believing that Romney is going to govern as a small government conservative are simply wishcasting.

If people are rationalizing his record now, they will be rationalizing his statist actions after elected. If we’re going to support Romney, it needs to be with eyes wide open.

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:54 PM

Holding Romney accountable …

… that happens AFTER the election. Hopefully there will be a lot of fresh new faces in the House and Senate to help him see the light.

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 11:50 PM

I do not agree.

From my perspective, Romney at his worst is better for the country than four more years of Obama the Corrupt Incompetent.

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 11:50 PM

You are undoubtedly right. At least over the next 2-4 years. But what happens if he starts governing like he did in MA, where every problem seemed to have a government/statist solution? What happens in 2014/16? Rerun of 2006/08? Democrat super-majorities? Would that be better?

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:57 PM

Yes, we shall see. You’re still going bald :)

thebrokenrattle on May 14, 2012 at 11:36 PM

Meh. Not really. It brings me great joy to see Obama losing. The feeling is just profoundly soured by the fact that it means ipso facto that Romney is winning.

besser tot als rot on May 15, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Meh. Not really. It brings me great joy to see Obama losing.
besser tot als rot on May 15, 2012 at 12:00 AM

Good, focus on the positive and build on it.

thebrokenrattle on May 15, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Keep it up President War-on-America

November 6th, 2012
V-A Day!!

PappyD61 on May 15, 2012 at 12:07 AM

Robin Roberts to the Michelle phone stat…..

Maybe if she hadn’t been about to wee-wee in her pants with excitement (or was it chills she said) she could have asked President War-on America if he also supported Tri-Sexual Marriage? Or if he supported equal rights and civil unions for Quad-Sexuals or PolyAmorous relationships?

I’ve never seen the media perform more lap dances on a politician in my life…..and I’m a geezer.

The media are purely without honor and souls in this country.

PappyD61 on May 15, 2012 at 12:11 AM

My dumb state, California, is blue so we love being broke. Nevertheless, ABO!

racquetballer on May 15, 2012 at 12:11 AM

BTW, ‘F’ the polls.

racquetballer on May 15, 2012 at 12:14 AM

The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.

In 2010 Cons outnumbered Libs 42-35.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141032/2010-Conservatives-Outnumber-Moderates-Liberals.aspx

Yes they do count mods but please these polls are weighted to the Dems favor.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:57 PM

……and you talk about motivated bases on November 6th?

If Romney runs a smart campaign (not the typical Dole/Ford/McCain type) and actually WANTS TO WIN then he should be able to beat this Category 5 President.


If not……….GOD HELP US.

PappyD61 on May 15, 2012 at 12:15 AM

Of course it is because of Gay Marriage. Obama coming out in favor of this insanity most likely cost him the election. Consumer confidence is way up, so the economy is less of a concern than it has been, particularly among independent voters who also overwhelmingly oppose Gay Marriage.

Norwegian on May 14, 2012 at 10:36 PM

Gay marriage didn’t help him-but i wouldn;t say Consumer Confidence is way up-that is just snake oil Bloomberg and Reuters are selling…..

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence

Dreadnought on May 15, 2012 at 12:15 AM

If the lib Timesnwith a poll skewed towards Dems shows Romney with a 3 pt lead you obama’s internals are much worse. Unless something totally crazy happens Romney will win in a walk-probably 5-7%.

Ta111 on May 14, 2012 at 8:11 PM

nothing is a certainty in politics.

Don’t forget the media and the media will start the “OBAMA IS THE UNDERDOG” theme here pretty quickly (could be in the next few days) and then they’ll set the stage for the “the comeback kid” crap from now until November 6th.

PappyD61 on May 15, 2012 at 12:18 AM

If this is all about gay marriage, I don’t think the polls will stay where they are. Apparently the media believed this announcement of Obama’s on his gay evolution would work to his advantage, so they headlined it as world-important news. That seems to have backfired.

The media will find another shiny object next week and they’ll keep trying new ones until they find one that works, and then they’ll go full bore.

It’s mildly encouraging that Romney is doing well these days, but it’s also mildly discouraging that the reason doesn’t have to do with the economy. There are just so many ignorant people out there, and that makes this election unpredictable.

In the meantime, there are more important things to worry about, such as getting good conservatives elected to the Senate like Mourdock and Cruz, for example. I personally think we should start focusing more attention on the Senate and House races.

Burke on May 15, 2012 at 12:22 AM

It’s mildly encouraging that Romney is doing well these days, but it’s also mildly discouraging that the reason doesn’t have to do with the economy.

Burke on May 15, 2012 at 12:22 AM

Actually, for Romney, it is VERY encouraging, “eggs in one basket” and all that.. The more Mittens looks and acts like a semi-mature adult, the worse off Obama will be electorally.

ebrown2 on May 15, 2012 at 12:32 AM

Evidently moreso than the gay canine muncher.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:26 PM

Isn’t eating gay canines homophobic or something?

Gladtobehere on May 15, 2012 at 12:37 AM

Still waiting for the CNN and al-AP “Poles”.

Del Dolemonte on May 14, 2012 at 9:42 PM

AP had Obama up by 8 the other day. About as meaningful as this one, I guess — which is to say, not much — but the echo chamber wouldn’t have dug it so it didn’t get much airtime.

ddrintn on May 14, 2012 at 9:44 PM

Some Friendly Advice, Dear.

You might get a modicum of respect by citing credible info.

But in the past al-AP has run “polls” that only Dr. Goebbels and/or Uncle Joe Biden/Stalin would approve of.

After O’bama and Joe Biden personally parachuted into Pakistan and made bin Laden stand upside down in a water fountain, this same al-Associated Press manufactured a “poll” giving O’bama a 6% or so increase in “job approval”.

To get that result, they had to sample almost twice as many Democrats as Republicans.

AP-

Del Dolemonte on May 15, 2012 at 12:39 AM

How could ANY republican vote for Obama. I can’t understand it

gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Have you talked to any Paulbots lately?

lovingmyUSA on May 15, 2012 at 12:48 AM

You are undoubtedly right. At least over the next 2-4 years. But what happens if he starts governing like he did in MA, where every problem seemed to have a government/statist solution? What happens in 2014/16? Rerun of 2006/08? Democrat super-majorities? Would that be better?

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:57 PM

I think its fair to say most of the country is a lot less liberal/statist oriented than MA. Romney aligning himself with the majority is likely to keep him light years to the right of Obama.

In 2014, there is another opportunity for additional course corrections. What happens between now and then will influence those outcomes substantially.

If you want to worry about the future, worry about the break up of the European Union and the demise of the euro as a currency.

This now seems likely to happen and it will derail the idea of “the viable socialist state” for at least a generation. In my opinion, it will be a good thing overall because it will force an end to the economic fantasy world we have been living in for the last three years. it will remind the people of this incredibly wealthy country they can lose what they now take for granted and should help sort out some of our national priorities in the process.

Unfortunately, it will also cause global hardship, increase suffering/starvation and ignite a least a couple of regional wars – all because a very arrogant man named Ben Bernanke has tried to forestall an inevitable economic correction and in the process caused a greater one to occur.

Romney’s business acumen could prove very helpful if this comes to pass.

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 12:55 AM

Probably closer to a 6-8 point difference… at THIS time…

Its starting to look like 1980 all over again…

Khun Joe on May 15, 2012 at 2:43 AM

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:54 PM

Santy was just “advising” Romney to run with the gay marriage issue – another reminder of why he was a terrible candidate and more a cultural conservative than anything else. We’re heading for fiscal armageddon, and you want to run against gay marriage and birth control?

If Romney had said what Newt said about the Ryan Plan he would have been run out of the party on a rail. Newt talks a big game but then does global warming commercials wih Pelosi and lobbies for GSE’s. Then he calls his opponent a corporate raider because he’s angry that his opponent is running negative ads about his dubious past.

I don’t care if you don’t like Romney or are skeptical of his sincerity. He was the most conservative choice left on the issues that matter.

The Count on May 15, 2012 at 3:09 AM

Evidently moreso than the gay canine muncher.
The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:26 PM
Isn’t eating gay canines homophobic or something?
Gladtobehere on May 15, 2012 at 12:37 AM

I think he gets some weird homoerotic pleasure out of it. Kind of like a gay beastialic Ted Bundy.

The Count on May 15, 2012 at 3:16 AM

Have you talked to any Paulbots lately?

lovingmyUSA on May 15, 2012 at 12:48 AM

They aren’t Republicans for the most part. Around here they are the kids of Lyndon LaRouche followers.

crosspatch on May 15, 2012 at 4:08 AM

I wrote here that three numbers should bother Mssrs. Axelrod & Plouffe: Mitt’s rating with the base, Mitt winning women & Mitt winning with independents.

Obviously, President Obama can still win but he can’t afford to continue losing with key demographic groups.

LFRGary on May 15, 2012 at 6:01 AM

Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.
Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

He called a kid a name once too.
CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I heard he threw a rock once too.
AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 8:01 PM

There are rumors that when he was 2 yrs old, Mitt Romney once told his mom that he wanted to go #1 but he did #2 too…. !

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

I heard he once flicked a booger. This was after the infamous spitwad incident. Don’t get me started on the time he gave someone, dare I say it, an Indian Burn.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

When he was seven, he gave his cousin a t*tty twister.

fossten on May 15, 2012 at 6:54 AM

My dumb state, California, is blue so we love being broke. Nevertheless, ABO!

racquetballer on May 15, 2012 at 12:11 AM

My branch manager is from California. Yesterday he cracked, “Remember, I’m from California, so for the last three years I got paid in IOUs.”

fossten on May 15, 2012 at 6:56 AM

Some Friendly Advice, Dear.

Del Dolemonte on May 15, 2012 at 12:39 AM

Thanks, sweetie. You mean it’s OK to whoop and holler over a CBS/NYT poll when it shows your guy in the lead, but it’s Pravda when it shows him trailing? Got it.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I think he needs an intervention. Drag him from his keyboard, hose him down and then lock him out of the house for a few hours. “What’s that big yellow thing in the sky???”

Bradky on May 14, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Coming from 2 morons whose only apparent purpose in life in to sit in here 24/7 telling other people to get a life.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:21 AM

5% of Republicans would vote for Obama.

aunursa on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

How could ANY republican vote for Obama. I can’t understand it

gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 11:01 PM

My personal opinion.. two types who call themselves republicans will vote for Obama..

One.. the contrarin type.. who goes against the norm just for the malevolent pleasure of it.. the shock value. Same kind of guy who says he’s a Christian.. but doesn’t believe in Hell or Heaven.

Two.. the liar.. never been a voting republican in his life. But thinks it hurts the GOP cause to say he’s one of us.. but so disgruntled by our wingnut views.. he just HAS to vote democrat.. because we force him too.

That type hasn’t voted GOP since there were buggy whips.. and never will.

We see trolls here like that.. people who claim they are one of us.. but our extreme views.. and nominating that crazy right wing extremist Romney has just gone way too far right.. when any sane republican looks at Romney and says.. “conservative extremist”?.. really?… HAHAAAAAA… haaahhaa….. huh..

Only the worst kind of liberal hack.. would think that sells anywhere outside of liberal crazytown.

mark81150 on May 15, 2012 at 7:31 AM

How could ANY republican vote for Obama. I can’t understand it

gerrym51 on May 14, 2012 at 11:01 PM

Have you talked to any Paulbots lately?

lovingmyUSA on May 15, 2012 at 12:48 AM

Oh my opinion is there are those so enchanted with a particular candidate that they are perfectly willing to have another 4 years of Obama and see their Lady riding the white horse to victory in 2016 as the Conservative Stalwart. No Republican in 2012 is going to take her throne. It will come in 2016.

(yes, of course I mean Bachmann) ;-)

Marcus on May 15, 2012 at 7:32 AM

The guy needs some kind of treatment… He lives up to his name a bit too much methinks.

SauerKraut537 on May 14, 2012 at 10:33 PM

Heh…anyone who doesn’t think like you do is obviously mentally ill, right? I mean, considering Romney elected on the basis of a 3-point lead in one national poll is the very model of sanity!

I call them like I see them. If it walks like a liberal and squawks like a liberal, you know what? It’s a liberal.

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 11:44 PM

And you know what? I call ‘em like I see ‘em. And if they squawk like a ‘bot, they’re a ‘bot. Soooooo….if your only basis ios calling me a liberal is the fact that I’m not thrilled with Romney and I think he’s going to lose, guess what? ‘Bot.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:33 AM

* basis for calling me a liberal

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:34 AM

Oh my opinion is there are those so enchanted with a particular candidate that they are perfectly willing to have another 4 years of Obama and see their Lady riding the white horse to victory in 2016 as the Conservative Stalwart. No Republican in 2012 is going to take her throne. It will come in 2016.

(yes, of course I mean Bachmann) ;-)

Marcus on May 15, 2012 at 7:32 AM

Bullshit. It’s not that anyone’s “willing” to put up with 4 m,ore years of Obama. It’s the rather clear-eyed ackowledgement of the fact that you’re not going to win with a weak squishy candidate. I don’t care who runs in 2016, as long as he/she is a conservative. Bachmann, Pence, Jindal, or *gasp* Palin ( who I doubt is ever going to run again for office anyway). So take your little insinuations of ‘nista attempted sabotage elsewhere and work for Perry ’16. Maybe he won’t be such a dud next time around.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:37 AM

Sad, really, to think that 84 percent of Democrats you run into go for O. These may be people who are responsible for cooking food in restaurants, inspecting elevators, and other highly sensitive and critical tasks. To think they would exhibit such poor judgement in their voting can be a little frightening. Only hope is that they don’t want to tell a pollster what they really think and will vote with a little more common sense come election day. But from what I see of dyed-in-the-wool, fat-cat hating Ds in real life that’s a faint hope.

curved space on May 15, 2012 at 7:48 AM

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:37 AM

In 2016, the GOP will be nominating President Romney for his second term. Deal with it you filthy commie bastard.

Happy Nomad on May 15, 2012 at 7:51 AM

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:37 AM

In 2016, the GOP will be nominating President Romney for his second term. Deal with it you filthy commie bastard.

Happy Nomad on May 15, 2012 at 7:51 AM

Oooooh, now let’s watch some of these sweet souls who were aghast at angryed and are sooooooo very concerned about civility just come leaping to my defense.

I won’t be holding my breath.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:58 AM

Heh…anyone who doesn’t think like you do is obviously mentally ill, right? I mean, considering Romney elected on the basis of a 3-point lead in one national poll is the very model of sanity!

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:33 AM

Not at all. I’m not talking about what he says but how he says it. He’s overtly and overly angry about HIS guy/girl not choosing to run or choosing to run and sucking at it, so he’s chosen to vomit on everybody around him as a result.

You’re not far behind him.

SauerKraut537 on May 15, 2012 at 8:06 AM

Voting for Obummer is strictly a gut thing — people do it because he’s black, or because their union bosses tell them to, or because they’re dyed-in-the-wool libs, or… Not because they’ve weight the issues or psychoanalyzed his motives.

KS Rex on May 14, 2012 at 10:00 PM

You saw what Van Jones said.

President Obama is not going to lose the black vote no matter what he does

Washington Nearsider on May 15, 2012 at 8:20 AM

Who are these 8% of self identified “conservatives” that are voting for Obama?

I could almost understand the 10% of self-identified “liberals” voting for Romney, because Obama has been that much of an incompetent failure.

But really? Someone needs some education as to what these terms mean.

Monkeytoe on May 15, 2012 at 8:27 AM

We had one candidate that wanted to spend more time talking about birth control than the economy. We had another call the Ryan Plan “right-wing social engineering”. And, we had another candidate endorse the Ryan Plan and campaign with Paul Ryan. We nominated that guy. Your move.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:35 PM

yep … IMHO the fix was in for Mitt after dropping out and letting McCain elect Obama …. it was his turn and the RNC gave him their support … (another reason not to give money to the RNC ) … so a lot of people decided to sit it out keep their powder dry and get raising money …. IF Mitt acts like the USA is MASS …
look out …

conservative tarheel on May 15, 2012 at 8:28 AM

In 2016, the GOP will be nominating President Romney for his second term. Deal with it you filthy commie bastard.

Happy Nomad on May 15, 2012 at 7:51 AM

Hippy – hmm maybe … lets (A) see if we can get Mitt elected
(B) see if he thinks the USA is MASS in how he governs ..
he very well maybe in the fight of his Life …

as far as ddritn and Honda and the others whos names escape me now …
I value their input .. even Angryed has come up with good things ..
Hell I poke fun at mittens … but at the end of the day …
I don’t think we can afford 4 more years of Obama and what he will
do thru ex orders to this country … 4 more years without a budget ..

conservative tarheel on May 15, 2012 at 8:34 AM

We had one candidate that wanted to spend more time talking about birth control than the economy.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 11:35 PM

You can always tell how desperate someone is by how they use lies to defend their position…if Mitt was so strong in your mind, you wouldn’t have to spread these lies.
Mitt can stand on his own without these kind of postings, but then it’s a habit with Mittwits…easier to lie about an opponent than tell a truth.
Let’s hope that Mitt doesn’t continue to follow that path that you “supporters” seem to want to take.

right2bright on May 15, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Don’t forget the media and the media will start the “OBAMA IS THE UNDERDOG”
PappyD61 on May 15, 2012 at 12:18 AM

you are what you eat :D
(had to go there …sorry …

conservative tarheel on May 15, 2012 at 8:51 AM

Meh. Not really. It brings me great joy to see Obama losing. The feeling is just profoundly soured by the fact that it means ipso facto that Romney is winning.

besser tot als rot on May 15, 2012 at 12:00 AM

same here … same here ….

conservative tarheel on May 15, 2012 at 8:55 AM

You can always tell how desperate someone is by how they use lies to defend their position…if Mitt was so strong in your mind, you wouldn’t have to spread these lies.
Mitt can stand on his own without these kind of postings, but then it’s a habit with Mittwits…easier to lie about an opponent than tell a truth.
Let’s hope that Mitt doesn’t continue to follow that path that you “supporters” seem to want to take.

right2bright on May 15, 2012 at 8:45 AM

Use lies to defend their positions? Are you trying to claim that Santorum didn’t steer the ship more towards the SoCon arguments about contraception and steer the conversation more towards Santorum’s “strengths” as regards SoCon issues?

This election will be won by hammering Obama on his mismanagement of the nation as regards our economy, NOT by arguing about women’s contraception issues, or gay marriage, et al.

SauerKraut537 on May 15, 2012 at 9:02 AM

I’d be really surprised if Obama only gets 84% of Dems and loses that many women. But, clearly, the same-sex marriage announcement and the subsequent media bashing has taken a toll. But I doubt those cross tabs will remain the same come november. But take your victory lap social conservatives.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

The Won then doubles down on SSM by asking for a repeal of DOMA. Next thing we know he will bring out the halos.

Kissmygrits on May 15, 2012 at 9:17 AM

A number of strange results from this poll, compared to the April NYT/CBS poll. In April, Obama led 49-43 among women, while Romney led 49-43 among men, leading to a 12-point “gender gap”. This month, Romney leads by 2 points among women, but only 3 points among men–has Romney won some women’s votes at the expense of some men’s votes? If gay marriage is the issue, do more men want it than women?

A lot of the fears among some HotAirians that Romney cannot unite Republicans are unfounded–Romney is getting 91% of the Republican vote and only losing 5%, while taking 10% of Democrat votes from Obama.

Romney now leads among the crucal Independent vote 43-36, whereas it was nearly tied (43-42) month–this could be a crucial shift.

Another interesting crosstab is that Obama leads 50-39 among self-described “moderates”, but Romney leads 43-36 among “independents”. Although the percentages of “liberals”, “moderates”, and “conservatives” in the sample were not given, this tends to indicate that many of the people who call themselves “moderate” are registered Democrats and vote for Democrats, whereas voters not registered with either party are a smaller group than the “moderates” and tend to vote more Republican.

Still, even among “moderate” voters, Romney has closed the gap from 20 points to 11 points in one month, and the number of “conservative” votes for Obama has been cut in half, from 17% to 8%, meaning that fewer conservative voters are thinking of voting for Obama to protest the fact that their preferred candidate didn’t win the primaries.

Steve Z on May 15, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I’d be really surprised if Obama only gets 84% of Dems and loses that many women. But, clearly, the same-sex marriage announcement and the subsequent media bashing has taken a toll. But I doubt those cross tabs will remain the same come november. But take your victory lap social conservatives.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Media bashing? Really? Every media account I have seen (other than conservative web-sites) has fawned over Obama’s gay marriage announcement. the NYT, CNN, NBC, ABC et al have literally wet themselves over how “historic” and wonderful it was.

Whether or not the numbers remain where they are, or whether gay marriage really had that much to do with the movement, claiming that the media “bashed” obama about his gay marriage admission (not announcement, we all knew he had been lying for 4 years) is quite delusional.

Monkeytoe on May 15, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Are you trying to claim that Santorum didn’t steer the ship more towards the SoCon arguments about contraception and steer the conversation more towards Santorum’s “strengths” as regards SoCon issues?

SauerKraut537 on May 15, 2012 at 9:02 AM

Yep, you are this stupid.

tom daschle concerned on May 15, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Still, even among “moderate” voters, Romney has closed the gap from 20 points to 11 points in one month, and the number of “conservative” votes for Obama has been cut in half, from 17% to 8%, meaning that fewer conservative voters are thinking of voting for Obama to protest the fact that their preferred candidate didn’t win the primaries.

Steve Z on May 15, 2012 at 9:32 AM

I doubt very much that any of those “conservatives” in the poll are protest voters. Much more likely, these are people who self-identify to pollsters as “conservative” but have no real understanding of what that means or are lying.

I have not head one conservative, on any blog or in person, who is upset with Romney being the nominee state they will vote for Obama. They may state they will sit out the presidential election and not vote (a claim that I don’t believe most of the time), but not that they will actually vote for Obama.

As far as the “moderates” go, far-far leftists have the delusion that they are moderate. We see it all the time. These same people believe that Obamacare was “moderate” and “centrist” and that opposing it is “extreme”. So, it’s not a surprise to me that self-identified moderates are actually pretty far left. For whatever reason (perhaps the media bias effect as well as the cocoon effect liberals experience) conservatives are much more realistic on where they stand on the political spectrum then liberals. Liberals believe the “center” in American politics is about 10 steps to the left of where it actually is.

Monkeytoe on May 15, 2012 at 9:44 AM

Women aren’t turning away from Obama because of his gay marriage flip flop if most of them are for it. Its because of the economy and I believe also the mommy wars that have backfired on the Democrats.
Romney pointed out many of the folks that lost their jobs in the recession were women. That means by choice or because they lost their jobs there are more stay at home moms out there. I think the constant marching out of lesbian partners and unmarried, working women without children to call Ann Romney “creepy”, and accuse her of “not working a day in her life” is wearing on the women who have more in common with Ann than these militant femi-nazis. Or maybe that’s just me.

magicbeans on May 15, 2012 at 9:53 AM

I’d be really surprised if Obama only gets 84% of Dems and loses that many women. But, clearly, the same-sex marriage announcement and the subsequent media bashing has taken a toll. But I doubt those cross tabs will remain the same come november. But take your victory lap social conservatives.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Obviously this far out polls don’t mean much.. too many things can change between now and November.

The value of these polls.. is that they put a stake through the heart of the biggest lie of all.. that Romney cannot beat Obama, well.. clearly he can..

Anyone liberal or conservative who thinks this is a done deal is kidding themselvess.. but for us the challenge is to double down and work harder as if the polls were reversed.. We have to win.. or the country is headed for a euro style collapse under Obama the 1st.

Just to be clear lib..

I do not see a dimes worth of difference between Obama and Hugo Chavez.. he wants to be the first American dictator.. and that is more and more a mainstream view. His ruling by executive orders and fiats to a degree which makes liberal screeching about Bush a bad joke.. his extending executive powers.. his refusal to answer Congressional subpenas.. his scandal ridden DOJ.. and an Attorney General so dogmatically racist in his use of prosecution powers.. a fact the MSM omits in every report..

In fact. any American who loves his freedom.. and isn’t terribly concerned about Obama’s enemies lists and his happy use of his minions to harass private citizens in their homes for the gravest of sins (donating money to Obama’s political foes).. is either asleep.. or so utterly left wing they welcome the perscution of conservatives.. even if it damages the rights of all.. they don’t care.. as long as conservatives get the ax they’re happy.

There are a great many liberals out there who welcome the chains of an over seer government.. as long as the left controls it.

mark81150 on May 15, 2012 at 10:09 AM

After learning about what Obama plans to do with the Freedom of the Seas Treaty/International Agreement and the latest Nixonian enemies list shenanigans, I’ve come to a decision. Though I backed someone else in the primaries, I’m not only going to vote for Romney in November I’m going to do something I’ve never done before: I’m getting a bumper sticker to advertise my choice and supporting him whole hog until the election. I will probably even work to get him elected. This dangerous, evil president must be voted out, come hell or high water.

totherightofthem on May 15, 2012 at 10:13 AM

The numbers don’t make any sense. There’s nothing indicating why women and millennials would abandon Obama.

Rainsford on May 15, 2012 at 10:15 AM

The numbers don’t make any sense. There’s nothing indicating why women and millennials would abandon Obama.

Rainsford on May 15, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Women shouldn’t support him to begin with, considering the real war on women is orchestrated right from the Oval Office, what with female staffers earning 18% less than male staffers in the WH. That being said, I can certainly see why millennials would abandon him: those that voted him in are either out of college or nearing it, by now, with no hope of employment. That does a lot to dampen enthusiasm. He has not ended Afghanistan. He has not tried KSM and company in civilian courts. He has not closed GITMO. He has been in bed with every corporate crony you can think of, right in front of the millennials’ noses. In short, he looks like more the same, only more of a liar. If I were a millennial, I’d surely abandon him. He has not kept one promise to them and has made it harder for them to get out there and earn a good living, like they were told they could do if they only got a college degree.

totherightofthem on May 15, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Lol
Top of drudge

Nyt poll biased says Obama team

Too funny

Though it is dem heavy

cmsinaz on May 15, 2012 at 10:45 AM

Team Obama has reached the height of desperation–calling a New York Times poll biased!

(H/T Drudge)

http://campaign2012.washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/beltway-confidential/obama-campaign-new-york-times-poll-biased/543191

Obama campaign deputy manager Stephanie Cutter dismissed today’s CBS/New York Times poll showing that 67 percent of people believed Obama made his decision on gay marriage for political reasons. Only 24 percent said that Obama did it “mostly because he thinks it is right.”

Host Chuck Todd asked Cutter about the poll, admitting that the methodology of the poll was different, because it was a callback poll. “Put those caveats aside that’s a lot of people saying that he did this for political reasons,” Todd said, noting that it was a 3-1 margin.

“We can’t put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased.” Cutter insisted on MSNBC this morning.

When pressed by Todd, Cutter said that she didn’t want to bore the viewers with talk of methodology, but repeated that she believed the poll was flawed.

Todd encouraged her to continue. “They’re junkies, they like this stuff,” he said of his viewers.

“It’s a biased sample, so they re-biased the same sample,” she concluded.

Well, maybe I’d have to agree! A poll that sampled 36% Democrats and 30% Republicans is biased. Does Team Obama think the Times should have included more Republicans in their sample?

Steve Z on May 15, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Use lies to defend their positions? Are you trying to claim that Santorum didn’t steer the ship more towards the SoCon arguments about contraception and steer the conversation more towards Santorum’s “strengths” as regards SoCon issues?

SauerKraut537 on May 15, 2012 at 9:02 AM

No I didn’t claim that, the poster, one of your lying breatheran, stated that Rick spent more time talking about those “other” than the economy…and that is not true.
Journalists spent more time, they dug up a speech from a decade+ ago that he gave to Catholics and hammered him (but you knew that, you just wanted to continue the lie), with Mitt’s blessing, but Rick spent his time talking about the economy, and about being more civil, which Mitt finally took the hint and straightened up.
Mitt spent little time talking about the economy, and mostly about other candidates and taking personal pot shots at them…it was effective, at least to his supporters.
Which is why people are still holding their nose in supporting Mitt. He is our candidate, eons better than Obama, but far short of being anything “ideal”.

right2bright on May 15, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Well, maybe I’d have to agree! A poll that sampled 36% Democrats and 30% Republicans is biased. Does Team Obama think the Times should have included more Republicans in their sample?

Steve Z on May 15, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Clearly the Obama team is engaging in some very poor spin. But I’m always curious about potential regional bias in these polls. Does it make a difference if the majority of Dems polled are from bible belt states or someplace like West Virginia where, despite a majority of Dems, those folks are never going to vote for Obama. Its a fair question.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Yep, you are this stupid.

tom daschle concerned on May 15, 2012 at 9:39 AM

Ha, a better response than mine…at least yours he will be able to understand, mine had too many syllables…

right2bright on May 15, 2012 at 11:00 AM

The 0bama Regime is correct that the NYT/CBS poll is biased. It has always been biased with an oversampling of donks.

jukin3 on May 15, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

“Evolving”….

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

Popcorn, please…

ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!

/schadenfreude

freedomfirst on May 15, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I doubt gay marriage is a make or break issue for most voters, but Obama’s support for it in this economic environment might appear gratuitously kulturkampflich which is to say self-indulgent. Kind of like a vacation. Say, did I just coin a new German word?

Seth Halpern on May 15, 2012 at 11:05 AM

The next two months are critical for the economic landscape that will determine the post-Labor Day period.

If you want to get rid of Obama, don’t spend ten cents on anything that you don’t need. DON”T BUY ANYTHING.

Bank your tax refund or pay down debt. Don’t increase consumer spending and retail sales.

matthew8787 on May 15, 2012 at 11:11 AM

When I saw the poll #’s for women the first thing I thought was a #Julia backlash, but no one is saying it on the news so I must be wrong.

boogaleesnots on May 15, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Because if conservatives don’t hold a President Romney accountable for his record, there will be a train wreck of epic proportions in 2014/16. And I’m not seeing a whole lot of people trying to hold Romney accountable.

besser tot als rot on May 14, 2012 at 11:25 PM

Accountable for what? I dont get this notion. Mitt Romney is what he is. He is a fiscal conservative, who doesn’t really care about social issues, and will never seek to make that part of his platform. And that is okay. The problem for ABR’s is that they expect every Republican to make social issues part of their core message, and if they dont, they are labeled RINOs. And Romney will not make social issues part of his core message. Now, that doesn’t mean that he will make gay marriage a priority once president, but he will not support gay marriage.

So, there is nothing to hold Romney accountable for. As many, including me, have said numerous times, he was the governor of MA. If his record was what it was in Kansas, then you can get on him. However, there is not one ABR conservative that can state unequivocally that his record would be the same in Kansas as it would have been in MA. And that takes all the air out of the argument that people know Romney is a liberal, and will govern from the far left.

As for disaster in 2014 and 2016. We might expect losses in the House in 2014, but the 2014 Senate cycle is from 2008. Hence, the Democrats should be vulnerable to lose seats in the Senate again in 2014.

milcus on May 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I am so picturing Miss Cupp in a dirndl.

Seth Halpern on May 15, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Need.More.Greek.Columns.

Shiny_Tiara on May 15, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Voters are reacting positively to the stories of Romney’s generosity – giving free haircuts as a teen, for example.

Chuck Schick on May 14, 2012 at 11:04 PM

He also helped a fellow school mate air out his dirty laundry by running his underwear up the school flag pole.

Gunlock Bill on May 15, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Accountable for what? I dont get this notion. Mitt Romney is what he is. He is a fiscal conservative, who doesn’t really care about social issues, and will never seek to make that part of his platform. And that is okay. The problem for ABR’s is that they expect every Republican to make social issues part of their core message, and if they dont, they are labeled RINOs. And Romney will not make social issues part of his core message. Now, that doesn’t mean that he will make gay marriage a priority once president, but he will not support gay marriage.

So, there is nothing to hold Romney accountable for. As many, including me, have said numerous times, he was the governor of MA. If his record was what it was in Kansas, then you can get on him. However, there is not one ABR conservative that can state unequivocally that his record would be the same in Kansas as it would have been in MA. And that takes all the air out of the argument that people know Romney is a liberal, and will govern from the far left.

milcus on May 15, 2012 at 11:21 AM

I almost couldn’t care less about social issues. Romney’s real problem is that he is a statist – he believes in using the government to solve problems. I believe that the government is the problem. Might he have been more non-statist in Kansas? Sure. The problem is that he defends his MA record as being objectively good and severely conservative. That is not the same thing as saying that it was the best that he could do in a far left state like MA (i.e., it was subjectively good). And you refuse to hold him accountable for his record of statism. Instead you rationalize it away based on made up arguments. That is the problem.

besser tot als rot on May 15, 2012 at 11:35 AM

This isn’t going to be close, folks.

The media will desperately spin and flail away to their last dying breath for this SCOMAF – I’m sure their internal polls are far worse than this.

Time for more shiny objects?

ICanSeeNovFromMyHouse on May 15, 2012 at 11:38 AM

It’s the rather clear-eyed ackowledgement of the fact that you’re not going to win with a weak squishy candidate.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:37 AM

Romney “a weak squishy candidate”?

LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I guess that is why he whipped the other Republican candidates like a rented mule and is now taking it to Obama in a way that is making the Libs panic.

LOL!!!!

Gunlock Bill on May 15, 2012 at 11:46 AM

I almost couldn’t care less about social issues. Romney’s real problem is that he is a statist – he believes in using the government to solve problems. I believe that the government is the problem. Might he have been more non-statist in Kansas? Sure. The problem is that he defends his MA record as being objectively good and severely conservative. That is not the same thing as saying that it was the best that he could do in a far left state like MA (i.e., it was subjectively good). And you refuse to hold him accountable for his record of statism. Instead you rationalize it away based on made up arguments. That is the problem.

besser tot als rot on May 15, 2012 at 11:35 AM

In theory, the government, as envisioned by the founding fathers is not a problem. The problem is when 536 people with ambition, and who feel that they must pretend to do things to get elected, keep doing insane things.

As for him saying his record was the best he could do, while that is the truth, politicians cant run on that. And they certainly cant run on that in a party where a good portion of the constituents think any stance that is not 100% conservative is wrong. Hence, he needed to say that his record was conservative to peel off even a small portion of social conersvatives to win.

As for being a statist, again, it’s hard not to be be a statist when your part of the government. It is really hard to just go to Washington and say the role of government is to do nothing, and to collect a paycheck while voting everything down. It is just not practical. And truth be told, the government does have a role in certain things. And if saying that makes you a statist, than so be it.

milcus on May 15, 2012 at 11:50 AM

The 0bama Regime is correct that the NYT/CBS poll is biased. It has always been biased with an oversampling of donks.

jukin3 on May 15, 2012 at 11:02 AM

That’s why it’s only 3 points.

TerryW on May 15, 2012 at 11:57 AM

And truth be told, the government does have a role in certain things. And if saying that makes you a statist, than so be it.

milcus on May 15, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Dude. You sound just like a Democrat: “All those small government conservatives want no government!!” So lame.

besser tot als rot on May 15, 2012 at 11:58 AM

And you know what? I call ‘em like I see ‘em. And if they squawk like a ‘bot, they’re a ‘bot. Soooooo….if your only basis ios calling me a liberal is the fact that I’m not thrilled with Romney and I think he’s going to lose, guess what? ‘Bot.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:33 AM

Works for me, lib4ever_ddrintn

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 12:01 PM

Here is what I think…if the NYT over sampled dems even more, it would show an ever larger margin for Mitt…they stopped at the “sweet spot” for Obama, only 3%.
And, btw, this is IF any dems turn out to vote, I think it will be one of the lowest dem voting turnouts in history.

right2bright on May 15, 2012 at 12:01 PM

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