NYT/CBS poll: Romney 46, Obama 43

posted at 7:43 pm on May 14, 2012 by Allahpundit

The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.

Maybe Karl was right about that “turning point.”

The bombshell number, obviously, is Romney leading O by two among women. If that happens on election day, rest assured that the overall margin will be a lot wider than three points. So what’s driving the sudden Mittmania? It’s probably not the economy:

Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 – months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.

Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama’s performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved.

Not a terrible poll for O and yet suddenly he’s fading among a key demographic. What explains the downturn? Probably an insta-backlash to his “evolution” on gay marriage:

While 25 percent say the president’s support for same-sex marriage makes them less likely to support his reelection, 16 percent say his position makes them more likely to support him. Fifty-eight percent say the announcement will not affect how they vote…

Asked if they had to decide if same-sex marriage should be legal, 51 percent said no, including 81 percent of Republicans, 25 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents. Forty-two percent said yes, including 13 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independents.

That 42/51 split on gay marriage is sharply lower than what Gallup found last week. Given Romney’s closing of the gender gap here, support for SSM must also be sharply lower among women (there are no crosstabs by gender) even though most women said they favor gay marriage in Gallup’s poll today. As for the 16/25 split on those who say O’s SSM shift will make them more/less likely to vote for him, that’s similar to the 13/26 split that Gallup found when it asked the same question last week. Among independents, Gallup had the split 11/23. NYT/CBS sees something similar there too:

This result probably isn’t helping him either:

On second thought, is that result helping him? Could be that some people who would otherwise support his shift on gay marriage have been turned off because he’s been so transparently cynical and opportunistic about it. But since he’s losing votes on this issue on balance, I’m thinking maybe the opposite is true — maybe some in his base, like black evangelicals, are inclined to let him slide for taking a position they find immoral precisely because they don’t think he’s embraced it on principle.

The money question for O is whether the gay-marriage backlash will last or whether it’s a fleeting reaction to all the headlines about it last week. If it does hold up for a few more weeks, Romney’s going to be sorely tempted to start spending some time on it on the stump even at the expense of his “economy, economy, economy” message. But maybe he doesn’t need to; such was the media attention to Obama’s “evolution” that everyone’s already heard about it, which means all he really needs to do is nudge voters on it now and then as a reminder.


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first ..
good poll

conservative tarheel on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Gay.
:)

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

saw scott pelly read this bout an hour ago. the look on his face? PAIN.

sbvft contributor on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

calling angryed …..

conservative tarheel on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Me Allah, please don’t spook me with that devilish pic !

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 7:46 PM

I know y’all are sick of hearing me say this. I will continue to say it all the same. 0 is done!

Bmore on May 14, 2012 at 7:46 PM

obama,s first post gay pole

rik on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I read it was a D+6 of likely voters and D+9 on registered voters…

sandee on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

NYT/CBS poll: Romney 46, Obama 43

Buwhahahahahahaha. Sketch wins Sketch wins!

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

I think we can now say the War on Women thing has totally backfired. Obama is 0 for 5 now.

LOL

ButterflyDragon on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Gay.
:)

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

This too. ; )

Bmore on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

The anti-Mitts are losing hair.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

But Allah, aren’t you even going to try to turn this into a portent of doom?

cynccook on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Someone’s worried. Keep laughing chuckles.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

5% of Republicans would vote for Obama.
10% of Democrats would vote for Romney.

aunursa on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

President Hummer.

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

NYT/CBS poll: Romney 46, Obama 43

Buwhahahahahahaha. Sketch wins Sketch wins!

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Shouldn’t you be getting flea dipped for your upcoming wedding?

AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 7:50 PM

I know y’all are sick of hearing me say this. I will continue to say it all the same. 0 is done!

Bmore on May 14, 2012 at 7:46 PM

Yep…
Unless….
He has a reverse evolution vision…
sometime next month…

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Well, it could have something to do with the fact that Romney is not gay, does not eat dogs and is not a sworn enemy of the United States.

Pork-Chop on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

2008: Makes history as first black man to be elected president.
2012: Makes history as first gay president to lose reelection.

Mark1971 on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

first ..
good poll
conservative tarheel on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Why am I not surprised?

Thought the NYT was all liberal and rooting for the socialist.

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

The TruCons of course.

CorporatePiggy on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

The money question for O is whether the gay-marriage backlash will last or whether it’s a fleeting reaction to all the headlines about it last week

As long as you keep reminding us, it will never fade, AP.

JPeterman on May 14, 2012 at 7:52 PM

Why should Obozo suffer for his same sex marriage positioning? I thought the whole country was gripped in the throes of an insatiable gay mania.

Kensington on May 14, 2012 at 7:52 PM

As I mentioned in another thread, the Obama media will be his undoing this time. They have seriously jumped the shark (and the dolphin, and the school of tuna).

SouthernGent on May 14, 2012 at 7:52 PM

It’s not enough to just defeat Obama. He must be utterly destroyed and humiliated, defeated in a way that no incumbent has ever been defeated.

We need to make sure that no one other than Michelle and Valerie vote for this schmuck.

He deserves nothing less.

turfmann on May 14, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

It’s Ann Althouse voting over and over and over and over.

Kensington on May 14, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Thought the NYT was all liberal and rooting for the socialist.

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Yeah! SO WHAT THE HELL’S GOING ON???

Chuck Schick on May 14, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Why am I not surprised?

Thought the NYT was all liberal and rooting for the socialist.

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Dingbat doesn’t even understand what the “first” meant. Sheesh you’re dumb.

Oh and of course because they have to report such numbers it means they are not rooting for Obama…gotch. Wow you’re an idiot.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

That’s why self-identification sucks.

Those 8% don’t believe in full nationalization of all industry, so they consider themselves “conservative”.

ButterflyDragon on May 14, 2012 at 7:54 PM

Thought the NYT was all liberal and rooting for the socialist.

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

They are…
Just that they are smart enough to see desperation and failure..

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:54 PM

People need to be reminded of two things…

1. Obama didn’t evolve on gay marriage, he revolved.
2. While ideally it should be a state issue, Obama will appoint judges that will make it a national issue.

ninjapirate on May 14, 2012 at 7:54 PM

The REAL numbers must be pretty bad for them to print this. Or they’re just trying to pump up the base.

GarandFan on May 14, 2012 at 7:55 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Angryed, Honda, astroneri, TheRightman, dtrintn just to name few.

JPeterman on May 14, 2012 at 7:55 PM

This is accurate polling … from NYT/CBS …

… it makes sense on a number of levels … the internal splits align with other reputable polls for a change …

… something in the liberal tea leaves???

Are they thinking of sinking The One?

In other news – No, AP, Romney does not need to address the gay marriage issue any further. He should let it be.

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 7:55 PM

…..Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.

In 2010 Cons outnumbered Libs 42-35.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/141032/2010-Conservatives-Outnumber-Moderates-Liberals.aspx

Yes they do count mods but please these polls are weighted to the Dems favor.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:57 PM

who are the 43%?

therightwinger on May 14, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Looks like our squish is going to squash Ozbama.

My collie says:

Yeah. Just think of what we could’ve done if we had had a “solid” candidate.

CyberCipher on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

…..Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

While he smiled…..

I am sure there are several witnesses that are still troubled today…

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Death by self-inflicted gay shot.

hillsoftx on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Angryed, Honda, astroneri, TheRightman, dtrintn just to name few.

JPeterman on May 14, 2012 at 7:55 PM

heh heh heh

He meant real conservatives not pretend ones

PolAgnostic on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

…..Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

He called a kid a name once too.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I am beginning to believe he already knows it is lost and is now simply setting up his ‘legacy’.

mouell on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

who are the 43%?

therightwinger on May 14, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Brain dead idiots? The 40%+ folks who don’t pay taxes?

JPeterman on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

i really hope mitts surrogates work the issue of how the country is a democratic republic and not a celebrity preezy cult of personality.

and, i’m sorry, when robin asked preezy about ssm, he clearly was just being a celeb. not a serious man.

serious times require serious men/women. O fails this test big time compared to FDR, LBJ, JFK…big time. O is a bit player.

r keller on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

first ..
good poll
conservative tarheel on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

Why am I not surprised?

Thought the NYT was all liberal and rooting for the socialist.

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

They might be able do something about that smell of desperation at the groomers.

AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

I will limit my comments to…

Heh.

Cicero43 on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Not conservatives, but republicans,
like the McCain , Murkowski, Collins, Snowe, Huntsman families

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:00 PM

..ever sit in the stands of one of those football games where your team is playing some juggernaut and all the books have your guys losing by four TDs? So, the first quarter comes and goes scoreless and then all of a sudden — wham! — your guys go up by a FG and a TD after several fumbles by the juggernauts. It’s two minutes to go in the first half and you begin to think way down in the deep, dark corner of your mind, “maybe, just maybe..”

But you know it’s all gonna get wiped out in the second half after the juggernauts get a tongue-lashing from their coach, readjust their strategy and come blazing out of the tunnel. It all hangs on that first drive of the second half. Was your team for real or was the juggernaut team just sleepwalking?

I think the second half starts after the conventions. But I got this feeling that these clowns are NOT sleepwalking; they’ve just been reading their press clippings too much.

..we’ll see, won’t we?

The War Planner on May 14, 2012 at 8:00 PM

obama,s first post gay pole

rik on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Oh yeah, Barry’s going down!

Wait, what?

pain train on May 14, 2012 at 8:00 PM

…..Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

He called a kid a name once too.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I heard he threw a rock once too.

AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 8:01 PM

I predict Craigslist D.C. will be featuring a good deal on a slightly tarnished Gaylo soon.

Cicero43 on May 14, 2012 at 8:01 PM

It’s not enough to just defeat Obama. He must be utterly destroyed and humiliated, defeated in a way that no incumbent has ever been defeated.

turfmann on May 14, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Sorry, but Mondale’s accomplishment is one of those untouchable records.

aunursa on May 14, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Doh! Right after I clicked “Submit”, I read “incumbent.

aunursa on May 14, 2012 at 8:03 PM

obama,s first post gay pole

rik on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Oh yeah, Barry’s going down!

Wait, what?

pain train on May 14, 2012 at 8:00 PM

He’s gonna be coming up from behind.

AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 8:03 PM

If CBS says he is down by 3 it’s really 13

Conservative4ev on May 14, 2012 at 8:03 PM

The biggest change was the % of conservatives voting for Obama declining from 17% to 8%.

topdog on May 14, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Lets face it Obama has nothing to gain anywhere he is just trying to stem loses and buoy the base.

Grunt on May 14, 2012 at 8:03 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Rick Luger

Lindsey graham

John McCain

Conservative4ev on May 14, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Romney to Erkel “I’m wearing you down!!!”

rushlimbang on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

…..Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.
Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

He called a kid a name once too.
CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I heard he threw a rock once too.
AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 8:01 PM

There are rumors that when he was 2 yrs old, Mitt Romney once told his mom that he wanted to go #1 but he did #2 too…. !

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

I am beginning to believe he already knows it is lost and is now simply setting up his ‘legacy’.

mouell on May 14, 2012 at 7:59 PM

Legacy???

Next year….
The Hope and Change bumper sticker will replaced with the band-aid sticker.

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

This is getting FUN!

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

No doubt about it, Obama – you’re ott

Bob in VA on May 14, 2012 at 8:07 PM

Yeah, “teh ghey” is going to blow up on Conservatives. Riiiight. The economy blew up on us all, that’s the problem.

Philly on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

UpperYourEastside’s gravy train’s coming to an end. Time to get a job loser.

But hey nice work lefties. You thought good people avoided public service in politics before you will see far more saying no way now.

Yeh great work./

CW on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

But he picked on some kid in school?! How can this be? /

changer1701 on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

ott – shud be OUT!~!!

Bob in VA on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

You’ll love the irony here:

(via Drudge)

Obama to Graduates: Don’t Believe the Media

President Barack Obama pointed a finger at the news media today when he gave the commencement address at all-female Barnard College in New York City, attributing some of the blame for what he described as a lack of faith in American institutions on news reports that focus on “sensationalism” and “scandal” and carry “a message that change isn’t possible.”

This from the White House that with the aid of their allies in the press…spent the last week pushing high school pranks as a serious news story.

..really…you can’t make this sh!t up.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

So what’s driving the sudden Mittmania?

Probably the dawning on more and more Americans that Obama is America’s version of Hugo Chavez.

VorDaj on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Rick Luger

Lindsey graham

John McCain

Conservative4ev on May 14, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Doesn’t he go by Dick? No wonder Jon Kerry and Obama were sad to see him go.

AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

That creepy picture of Obama…..
I think he has had his whiskers lasered…
Focus like a laser…
Obama was telling the truth…

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

The REAL numbers must be pretty bad for them to print this. Or they’re just trying to pump up the base.

GarandFan on May 14, 2012 at 7:55 PM

My first thought. If the NYT/CBS went public with this, the actual numbers must be brutal.

Rational Thought on May 14, 2012 at 8:08 PM

For 8pm pick me up – the bright side when it comes to Obama is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z0oBg9VLSI&feature=related

wubu on May 14, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

These are Sullivan/Friedersdorf/Frum-”conservatives”.

Valkyriepundit on May 14, 2012 at 8:09 PM

Make no mistake about it – Obama gets 1 term (I like term limits!!)

Bob in VA on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I wonder if the White House has received a shipment of Depends lately.

Philly on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

There are rumors that when he was 2 yrs old, Mitt Romney once told his mom that he wanted to go #1 but he did #2 too…. !

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

…that plays into a coming NY Times lead that discuses if someone like Romney…who is known for leaving the toilet seat up….is really fit to be President.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Had Obama run off to Key West with Tony Rezko, when he had the chance, life would be a lot easier for him right now.

carl todd hand on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Time to break that story about Romney throwing the ball to hard during dodge-ball games back in the sixth grade.
Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 7:56 PM

He called a kid a name once too.
CW on May 14, 2012 at 7:58 PM

I heard he threw a rock once too.
AllahsNippleHair on May 14, 2012 at 8:01 PM

There are rumors that when he was 2 yrs old, Mitt Romney once told his mom that he wanted to go #1 but he did #2 too…. !

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

I heard he once flicked a booger. This was after the infamous spitwad incident. Don’t get me started on the time he gave someone, dare I say it, an Indian Burn.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

If the lib Timesnwith a poll skewed towards Dems shows Romney with a 3 pt lead you obama’s internals are much worse. Unless something totally crazy happens Romney will win in a walk-probably 5-7%.

Ta111 on May 14, 2012 at 8:11 PM

enuff of teh ghey…

ted c on May 14, 2012 at 8:12 PM

if someone like Romney…who is known for leaving the toilet seat up….is really fit to be President.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I’m told that Mitt Romney leaves the toilet seat up only when he knows that the Mooch will be using the toilet after him !!

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

The TruCons of course.

CorporatePiggy on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

It’s the P–lB-t head in the sand crowd and the Frum/Brooks “Elite Conservatives” who think TeaPartiers are racist extremists and OccuPoopers are making an important point.

peski on May 14, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Good question.

Terrye on May 14, 2012 at 8:13 PM

Uppereastside on May 14, 2012 at 7:51 PM

Must be a real pain in the ass defending this president.

The Count on May 14, 2012 at 8:13 PM

saw scott pelly read this bout an hour ago. the look on his face? PAIN.

sbvft contributor on May 14, 2012 at 7:45 PM

I’m trying hard to wipe that devious grin off my face… >:)

Myron Falwell on May 14, 2012 at 8:13 PM

CW on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

An Indian Burn!!!!!!

..don’t they call that a “Warren burn” now, after the Great Indian Princess Elizabeth Warren??????

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:13 PM

There are rumors that when he was 2 yrs old, Mitt Romney once told his mom that he wanted to go #1 but he did #2 too…. !

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:06 PM

…that plays into a coming NY Times lead that discuses if someone like Romney…who is known for leaving the toilet seat up….is really fit to be President.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Well Obama has it figured out . He sits for # 1 and 2.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 8:13 PM

President Hummer.

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 7:48 PM

Didn’t 0 sell, or give, Hummer to China?

VorDaj on May 14, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Who are the 8% of conservatives voting for Obama?!?!

GeorgieGirl9 on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

Bitter Palin fans?

changer1701 on May 14, 2012 at 8:14 PM

Julia better get off her rear and do some work for O.

stldave on May 14, 2012 at 8:14 PM

562 RVs? What a joke.

This makes it clear we’re in a bad economy. CBS and NYT can’t afford to commission a poll with a larger sample size? Just looking for the bare minimum to generate clicks and drive a news story.

BruinEric on May 14, 2012 at 8:14 PM

I think the numbers were a combination of teh ghey and the White House’s ridiculous manipulation of the media to portray Mitt as a homophobe and bully as an adolescent. The White House is desperate, obviously, and the stink rose pretty quickly.

Maybe the first gay president thing is not going so well for Barry.

Philly on May 14, 2012 at 8:14 PM

…that plays into a coming NY Times lead that discuses if someone like Romney…who is known for leaving the toilet seat up….is really fit to be President.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Have you had to push a penny with your nose on the rim of the toilet bowl?

Romney leaves the seat up just in case he has to bully someone..
:)

Electrongod on May 14, 2012 at 8:15 PM

burrata on May 14, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Ouch…

Don’t see her in any danger of falling through that hole.

Baxter Greene on May 14, 2012 at 8:15 PM

obama,s first post gay pole

rik on May 14, 2012 at 7:47 PM

And he took in the a$$

rik on May 14, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Wait a minute… Obama cut Romney’s lead among men in half (R+6 to R+3). What’s up with that?

Fabozz on May 14, 2012 at 8:15 PM

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