NYT/CBS poll: Romney 46, Obama 43

posted at 7:43 pm on May 14, 2012 by Allahpundit

The weighted sample of registered voters: 36D/30R/34I, which is right in line with most national polls.

Maybe Karl was right about that “turning point.”

The bombshell number, obviously, is Romney leading O by two among women. If that happens on election day, rest assured that the overall margin will be a lot wider than three points. So what’s driving the sudden Mittmania? It’s probably not the economy:

Most Americans (67 percent) believe the economy is in bad shape, but respondents expressed the most optimism on that issue since January 2008 – months before the economic crisis was in full swing. Thirty-two percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, and 36 percent said they thought it was getting better. Twenty-four percent of Americans said they thought the economy was getting worse, and 39 percent said they thought it was staying the same.

Fifty percent of Americans said they approve of Mr. Obama’s performance as president, while 48 percent disapproved.

Not a terrible poll for O and yet suddenly he’s fading among a key demographic. What explains the downturn? Probably an insta-backlash to his “evolution” on gay marriage:

While 25 percent say the president’s support for same-sex marriage makes them less likely to support his reelection, 16 percent say his position makes them more likely to support him. Fifty-eight percent say the announcement will not affect how they vote…

Asked if they had to decide if same-sex marriage should be legal, 51 percent said no, including 81 percent of Republicans, 25 percent of Democrats and 54 percent of independents. Forty-two percent said yes, including 13 percent of Republicans, 63 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of independents.

That 42/51 split on gay marriage is sharply lower than what Gallup found last week. Given Romney’s closing of the gender gap here, support for SSM must also be sharply lower among women (there are no crosstabs by gender) even though most women said they favor gay marriage in Gallup’s poll today. As for the 16/25 split on those who say O’s SSM shift will make them more/less likely to vote for him, that’s similar to the 13/26 split that Gallup found when it asked the same question last week. Among independents, Gallup had the split 11/23. NYT/CBS sees something similar there too:

This result probably isn’t helping him either:

On second thought, is that result helping him? Could be that some people who would otherwise support his shift on gay marriage have been turned off because he’s been so transparently cynical and opportunistic about it. But since he’s losing votes on this issue on balance, I’m thinking maybe the opposite is true — maybe some in his base, like black evangelicals, are inclined to let him slide for taking a position they find immoral precisely because they don’t think he’s embraced it on principle.

The money question for O is whether the gay-marriage backlash will last or whether it’s a fleeting reaction to all the headlines about it last week. If it does hold up for a few more weeks, Romney’s going to be sorely tempted to start spending some time on it on the stump even at the expense of his “economy, economy, economy” message. But maybe he doesn’t need to; such was the media attention to Obama’s “evolution” that everyone’s already heard about it, which means all he really needs to do is nudge voters on it now and then as a reminder.


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Comment pages: 1 2 3 4

In 2016, the GOP will be nominating President Romney for his second term. Deal with it you filthy commie bastard.

Happy Nomad on May 15, 2012 at 7:51 AM

No, that’s not acceptable, Happy Nomad

Frankly, you are better than stooping to name calling.

ddrintn is trying to get a rise out of people. He is using this site to vent his anger over Romney. He may be a liberal. He may be a socialist. In theory, he might be even be a communist.

He does not deserve to be subjected to an personal attack.

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 12:09 PM

Real Clear Politics has dropped this poll from its average, explaining that it is a “call back poll”. Obama went from +1.6 to +2.2.

topdog on May 15, 2012 at 12:17 PM

It’s the rather clear-eyed ackowledgement of the fact that you’re not going to win with a weak squishy candidate.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:37 AM

.
Squishy ? You should alert the media of this fact. They think the Mittigator is MEAN- RUTHLESS- HEARTLESS- AND JUST PLAIN MEAN !

Why the disconnect ?

I thought angryed was the most disturbed by polling numbers and fair weather fans. What will you do when all the polls show Super Mitt as the favorite?

The leftist media will implode trying to keep their Emperor propped up.

FlaMurph on May 15, 2012 at 12:17 PM

Please, Allahpundit, stop running that picture. It gives me the dry heaves. And don’t use the other one where he’s winking. It’s even worse. Thank you.

JoAnn1965 on May 15, 2012 at 12:21 PM

Some Friendly Advice, Dear.

Del Dolemonte on May 15, 2012 at 12:39 AM

Thanks, sweetie. You mean it’s OK to whoop and holler over a CBS/NYT poll when it shows your guy in the lead, but it’s Pravda when it shows him trailing? Got it.

CW on May 14, 2012 at 10:31 PM

I think he needs an intervention. Drag him from his keyboard, hose him down and then lock him out of the house for a few hours. “What’s that big yellow thing in the sky???”

Bradky on May 14, 2012 at 11:07 PM

Coming from 2 morons whose only apparent purpose in life in to sit in here 24/7 telling other people to get a life.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:21 AM

Classy!

F-

Del Dolemonte on May 15, 2012 at 12:52 PM

But take your victory lap social conservatives.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Please keep believing this election will be won on social issues.

It won’t.

Del Dolemonte on May 15, 2012 at 12:53 PM

Clearly the Obama team is engaging in some very poor spin. But I’m always curious about potential regional bias in these polls. Does it make a difference if the majority of Dems polled are from bible belt states or someplace like West Virginia where, despite a majority of Dems, those folks are never going to vote for Obama. Its a fair question.

libfreeordie on May 15, 2012 at 11:00 AM

lol, you just engaged in some “pretty poor spin” right there!

Del Dolemonte on May 15, 2012 at 12:57 PM

Coming from 2 morons whose only apparent purpose in life in to sit in here 24/7 telling other people to get a life.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 7:21 AM

Actually you read and see only what you want to see and you don’t have a life that is quite evident. OH but keep getting your anger out . Growl a little come on you can do it.

CW on May 15, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Real Clear Politics has dropped this poll from its average, explaining that it is a “call back poll”. Obama went from +1.6 to +2.2.

Maybe they would have liked the CBS poll better if it was a “holla back” poll.

Reno_Dave on May 15, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Here they go again. I just realized we are going to hear “RACIST!” 24/7 until November.

Obama Campaign: Ignore That ‘Biased’ NYT/CBS Poll

http://townhall.com/tipsheet/guybenson/2012/05/15/obama_campaign_ignore_that_biased_nytcbs_poll

dogsoldier on May 15, 2012 at 2:09 PM

Here they go again. I just realized we are going to hear “RACIST!” 24/7 until November.
dogsoldier on May 15, 2012 at 2:09 PM

what took you so long to figure that out ?? you can also add Homophobic …

conservative tarheel on May 15, 2012 at 2:24 PM

Actually you read and see only what you want to see and you don’t have a life that is quite evident. OH but keep getting your anger out . Growl a little come on you can do it.

CW on May 15, 2012 at 1:14 PM

Heh. When you get the you’re-a-poo-poo-head “argument” from these morons on a 24/7 loop, you know you’ve won.

ddrintn is trying to get a rise out of people. He is using this site to vent his anger over Romney. He may be a liberal. He may be a socialist. In theory, he might be even be a communist.

He does not deserve to be subjected to an personal attack.

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 12:09 PM

And you’re probably just the average run-of-the-mill Romney sock sniffer.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Real Clear Politics has dropped this poll from its average, explaining that it is a “call back poll”. Obama went from +1.6 to +2.2.

Maybe they would have liked the CBS poll better if it was a “holla back” poll.

Reno_Dave on May 15, 2012 at 1:44 PM

Awwwwwww maaaaaaan….

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 5:08 PM

ddrintn is trying to get a rise out of people. He is using this site to vent his anger over Romney. He may be a liberal. He may be a socialist. In theory, he might be even be a communist.

He does not deserve to be subjected to an personal attack.

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 12:09 PM

And you’re probably just the average run-of-the-mill Romney sock sniffer.

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 5:07 PM

eh?

You’re welcome.

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 5:16 PM

eh?

You’re welcome.

PolAgnostic on May 15, 2012 at 5:16 PM

What? It was a compliment. You have something against sniffing Romney’s socks?

ddrintn on May 15, 2012 at 5:25 PM

Comment pages: 1 2 3 4