Obama only up 4 in SurveyUSA poll in … Oregon?

posted at 2:41 pm on May 11, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

With all of his other competition out of the way, no one should be surprised how Mitt Romney stacks up against other Republicans in the Oregon primary, set for next Tuesday.  A new SurveyUSA poll shows Romney with 58% of the vote, with Ron Paul in a distant second at 14%, which means that the May 15th primary will be as drama-free as possible.  However, the poll also shows Romney within the margin of error against Barack Obama in the Democratic stronghold — and gaining:

In a November match-up between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for President of the United States, Obama today edges Romney, 47% to 43%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, when the Republican primary was still competitive, Obama is down 3 points; Romney is up 4. Among women, Obama leads by 13; among men, Romney leads by 6 — a 19-point gender gap. Independents break 4:3 for Obama. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 16 points in Oregon.

The sample in this poll uses registered voters, a survey type that normally tilts a little more toward Democrats.  The split might tilt more toward Republicans, though, with a D/R/I of 38/35/27.  The D/R/I in 2008 was 36/27/37, and given that independents break more for Obama in this poll (44/33), the difference could be having a substantial impact on the results.

The other internals are intriguing. Anyone from Oregon will be unsurprised to discover that Obama’s strength comes from the Portland area, which he leads by 12 over Romney, but only at a bare majority of 50/38.  In the rest of the state, Romney leads by 13 points, 53/40.  Obama also leads among 18-34YOs, but not by as much as one would imagine, 49/38, short of a majority.  Obama only scores majorities among self-described liberals and very liberals, while carrying Oregon moderates only by a plurality of 47/37.

Obama may have a solid lead, but it’s an unimpressive one in what should be a no-worry, loyal Democratic state.  By failing to get to 50%, Obama gives an impression of vulnerability in Oregon, a state that last went Republican when Ronald Reagan ran for re-election.  Romney might have Obama playing defense outside of the normally-accepted set of swing states in November.


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Maybe Dick Morris is correct and this might be a landslide. If a socialist is barely leading in Oregon, Obama is in deep trouble.

Hence, all those polls that show close races in palces like Virginia must be dead wrong.

Romney might be giving a victory speech on Election day before the time that polls close in California.

milcus on May 11, 2012 at 4:30 PM

Not buying into this poll. The left coast states (exception is areas east of I-5) are pretty hardcore socialist/progressive. I lived there long enough to know. Romney is going to win this election from the flyover states and he will need most of them. If Obama were to lose a left coaster it will be a historic beatdown for the Dems.

dddave on May 11, 2012 at 4:31 PM

That kid’s hands appear to be forming a triangle.

Coincidence?

CurtZHP on May 11, 2012 at 2:46 PM

I noticed that as well. Do Oregonians worship the Illuminati or something? I noticed some lady doing that sign after the Oregon Ducks won the Rose Bowl. Which I thought was odd since you’d think they’d at least do a circle(for Oregon) with their hands, not a triangle. And it is certainly not a ‘D’.

Any people from Oregon know the significance of that triangle sign?

———————–
These are Univ. of Oregon students making a sloppy “O” with their hands representing Oregon. I’m a big U of O sports fan but hate the far left liberal skew of the school. I live in one of the many crimson red counties of the state.

RightlySo on May 11, 2012 at 4:48 PM

Just like we say with most polls that show a large Obama lead, i’m looking at you GfK and Ipsos, this polls has horrible demos. It would be amazing if the partisan split was only 3% in Oregon but there is no way that is true.

MFn G I M P on May 11, 2012 at 4:49 PM

Oregon as a whole isn’t that liberal at all. If Romney can hold down Obama’s margins in Portland, he can definitely win that state. In fact if Romney can win, or compete strongly with upper income whites in metro areas, he will flip a lot of states red that haven’t went Republican in presidential elections in quite some time (wisconsin, michigan, pa).

therightwinger on May 11, 2012 at 4:52 PM

Yeah because that’s what all that polling means, he’s losing votes…only it’s a crafty, SEEEEECRET plan, and we all tell the pollsters one thing, but we all do the other…Steve this is called “wishcasting.”

JFKY on May 11, 2012 at 4:25 PM

Polling means nothing. It is just a media manipulation tool most of the time (they only try to get it right if it will be tested by an election).

Gay Marriage wins in the polls but loses every time at the ballot box.

Steveangell on May 11, 2012 at 4:54 PM

From The Obama Timeline:

In August 2011 Congressman Peter DeFazio (D-OR) had less than glowing words for Obama in an interview with KGW in Portland. DeFazio claimed that Obama has been too willing to give in to the Republicans and that “fight” is not in his vocabulary. Asked about Obama’s chances in 2012, DeFazio said, “At this point it pretty much depends on how far out there the Republican nominee is. You know with a respectable — someone who is a little bit toward the middle of the road — Republican nominee, he’s going to have a very tough time getting re-elected.”

DeFazio stated, “I believe Oregon is very much in play. I mean we are one of the harder hit states in the union, particularly my part of the state. I’ve just done six town hall meetings, have seven to go but people are shaking their heads and saying ‘I don’t know if I’d vote for him [Obama] again.’”

Colony14 on May 11, 2012 at 4:56 PM

Romney might have Obama playing defense outside of the normally-accepted set of swing states in November.

Which makes his path to victory… significantly less narrow.

Eat ****, Nate Silver.

Red Cloud on May 11, 2012 at 5:07 PM

The split might tilt more toward Republicans, though, with a D/R/I of 38/35/27. The D/R/I in 2008 was 36/27/37,

Um, yeah thats pretty much all we need from this poll isn’t it?

libfreeordie on May 11, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Parts of Oregon have 25%+ real unemployment (Bend comes to mind).

Perhaps even the libs there are feeling nonplussed.

CorporatePiggy on May 11, 2012 at 5:30 PM

25% of families in Oregon are on food stamps, that’s the real unemployment. reported unemployment is around 12% with about 10% dropped out of workforce means it’s between 20% to 25% unemployment.

last tax revolt in Oregon was bi-partisan, that won’t happen again.

mathewsjw on May 11, 2012 at 5:40 PM

The split might tilt more toward Republicans, though, with a D/R/I of 38/35/27. The D/R/I in 2008 was 36/27/37,

Um, yeah thats pretty much all we need from this poll isn’t it?

libfreeordie on May 11, 2012 at 5:11 PM

Yes one of the many ways to lie with a poll. Another widely used method it to call when the wanted demographic is more likely to answer the phone. Or just plain find people that identify themselves as Republicans but are Democrats and not weed them out.

Polls are worthless unless they will soon be tested by an election.

Steveangell on May 11, 2012 at 5:42 PM

Eat ****, Nate Silver.

Red Cloud on May 11, 2012 at 5:07 PM

Watch out, Nate is angryed’s favorite number cruncher.

ed might get angry at you.

Del Dolemonte on May 11, 2012 at 5:56 PM

The split might tilt more toward Republicans, though, with a D/R/I of 38/35/27. The D/R/I in 2008 was 36/27/37,

Um, yeah thats pretty much all we need from this poll isn’t it?

libfreeordie on May 11, 2012 at 5:11 PM

lol, you honestly believe that the voter demos for your Democrats will be equal to what they were 4 years ago?

If so, please direct me to your dealer. That’s some pretty high test stuff you’re smoking!

Del Dolemonte on May 11, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Yeah but being from Oregon I can tell you it doesn’t matter if Romney is beating Obama in rural Oregon, because Portlandia always carries the Left to victory- with electioneering if necessary.

Oregon is going Blue regardless.

Browncoatone on May 11, 2012 at 6:15 PM

Yeah but being from Oregon I can tell you it doesn’t matter if Romney is beating Obama in rural Oregon, because Portlandia always carries the Left to victory- with electioneering if necessary.

Oregon is going Blue regardless.

Browncoatone on May 11, 2012 at 6:15 PM

For sure. Shame too as outside of Portland life’s pretty rough these days…

And it has some of the most beautiful country I’ve ever seen for a place that’s not in the South.

CorporatePiggy on May 11, 2012 at 6:28 PM

If memory serves, McCain put Oregon in play prior to his suspending his campaign fiasco. But to have a sitting Dem president doing so poorly could give Romney a chance to force Obama to waste time and money in the state.

William Teach on May 11, 2012 at 6:50 PM

lol, you honestly believe that the voter demos for your Democrats will be equal to what they were 4 years ago?

If so, please direct me to your dealer. That’s some pretty high test stuff you’re smoking!

Del Dolemonte on May 11, 2012 at 6:02 PM

Sorry Del… this pains me to say it… libfree is right.

Yeah, that hurt. BUt the numbers are pretty clear.

Damn, with the link my comment isn’t posting.
Google ‘Exit polls Oregon 2010′ without quotes.

the 2nd link down “Exit Poll: Large gender gap in Oregon governor’s race” then has a link to CNN’s 2010 exit polls.

For some reason I can’t post that link here.

2010 exit polls, Governor race split? 36/27/37 Senate was 1 point off, but almost exactly the same.

2008 was a huge Dem year… 36/27/37
2010 was a huge Rep year… 36/27/37

I’m thinking of they didn’t change from 2008-2010 they won’t change from 2010 to 2012.

*fixing* the poll given that split. Obama has about 6% more than listed, Romney is down 4% more than listed.

52% Obama 39% Romney… that’s probably about how Oregon stands.

gekkobear on May 11, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Oregon? Well Hell, now he will come out in favor of legalization of heroin to get some votes.

Hummer53 on May 11, 2012 at 7:07 PM

52% Obama 39% Romney… that’s probably about how Oregon stands.

That would truly surprise me. Romney might not win, but it should be much closer than that.

I’m thinking of they didn’t change from 2008-2010 they won’t change from 2010 to 2012.

gekkobear on May 11, 2012 at 6:53 PM

The percentage from each party might not have changed, but the way people voted in 2008 is much different than in 2010. We went from a dem controlled legislature to tied or almost tied in each house. We now have TEA Party members teaming up with fiscally conservative dems on legislation. I think we might have a shot to take it this year.

(BTW, due to some of those reps and dems teaming up, these past two years have had me gobsmacked! There actually are dems who are sane, unlike the Sam Adams types. Who knew? It’s been quite unsettling. lol)

There are a lot of dems who are unhappy with Obama. I’ve watched his approval ratings go from astronomical to below 50%, and he’s been in the 40s for quite some time. In 2000, Bush lost by less than 7,000 votes causing a recount. Folks here weren’t nearly as unhappy with Clinton as they are with Obama.

kakypat on May 11, 2012 at 7:20 PM

Oregon? Well Hell, now he will come out in favor of legalization of heroin to get some votes.

Hummer53 on May 11, 2012 at 7:07 PM

He’s going to have to do better than that! Maybe if he promised “clean” heroin?

http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-northwest-news/index.ssf/2012/04/cheap_readily_available_heroin.html

kakypat on May 11, 2012 at 7:23 PM

In Nov. 2010 Gov. Snyder won the Michigan election, in a state that went for Obama, with 58% of the vote. He is a republican, people voted republican in 2010. They might vote that way in the presidential race.

In Nov. 2012 in MA, Gov. Duval Patrick won re election to his governorship with 48% of the vote. 52% of the voters voted for someone who is not the democrat candidate for governor. What if the same crowd turns out for Obama in Novemeber in MA, can Obama get 48% of the vote? What if Romney got more of the 52% that was left? What if the voters wont turn out for Obama and Lizzy Warren on election day?

In 2010 Governor Tom Corbett came into office in a state that voted two years before for Obama. Corbett took 54% of the vote. Tom Corbett, (R).

What if the dems come out and give Obama the 45% of the vote they gave Dan Onorato?

So, I guess I would believe that Oregon could vote for Romney. It is ALL possible.

Fleuries on May 11, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Sorry Del… this pains me to say it… libfree is right.

Yeah, that hurt. BUt the numbers are pretty clear.

Damn, with the link my comment isn’t posting.
Google ‘Exit polls Oregon 2010′ without quotes.

the 2nd link down “Exit Poll: Large gender gap in Oregon governor’s race” then has a link to CNN’s 2010 exit polls.

For some reason I can’t post that link here.

2010 exit polls, Governor race split? 36/27/37 Senate was 1 point off, but almost exactly the same.

2008 was a huge Dem year… 36/27/37
2010 was a huge Rep year… 36/27/37

I’m thinking of they didn’t change from 2008-2010 they won’t change from 2010 to 2012.

*fixing* the poll given that split. Obama has about 6% more than listed, Romney is down 4% more than listed.

52% Obama 39% Romney… that’s probably about how Oregon stands.

gekkobear on May 11, 2012 at 6:53 PM

Sounds right, however, with the way Bamster et cie are spewing up Kinsley gaffes, there might be a change in those numbers. I still can’t see O getting worse than a 51/49 split in OR, unless there’s the Mother of All White House Meltdowns. That’s a possibility.

ebrown2 on May 11, 2012 at 8:44 PM

I can see O struggling here.Wwe have ballots due May 15th. I am in Clackamas County and there appears to be a significant number of conservatives on the ballot. For Oregon. I can’t remember this many conservative leaning or sounding choices before.
The economy is dismal here, and the 99% garbage strong, however there is a definite awareness that the extreme spending can not continue.

ORconservative on May 11, 2012 at 9:27 PM

I can see O struggling here.Wwe have ballots due May 15th. I am in Clackamas County and there appears to be a significant number of conservatives on the ballot. For Oregon. I can’t remember this many conservative leaning or sounding choices before.
The economy is dismal here, and the 99% garbage strong, however there is a definite awareness that the extreme spending can not continue.

ORconservative on May 11, 2012 at 9:27 PM

Washington County here, and I concur.

BTW, I love your county’s “Stop Portland Creep” ads.

kakypat on May 11, 2012 at 10:56 PM

That’s supposed to be an ‘O’? Who in their right mind would think that a triangle was an O? I mean, why don’t they just cup their index finger to their thumb? That would be easier, would make a better ‘O’ shape, and then they could even make two O’s by using their other hand.

Anyway, thanks for the info guys! I was starting to think the Illuminati was taking over Oregon, what with those handsigns and those creepy reptillian uniforms on the Oregon Ducks. ;)

Sterling Holobyte on May 12, 2012 at 1:25 AM

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