Media musings: Could Obama actually lose?

posted at 2:56 pm on May 9, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The mainstream media seems to have awoken to the fact that an incumbent President polling in the mid-40s in May could very well be an unemployed former President by January.  Josh Kraushaar analyzes the latest polling and pronounces Barack Obama the underdog in the race:

 This presidential election is coming down to two immutable facts that have become increasingly clear as November draws closer: President Obama will be running for a second term under a stagnant economy, and his two most significant legislative accomplishments—health care reform and a job-goosing stimulus—remain deeply unpopular. It doesn’t take a professional pundit to recognize that’s a very tough ticket for reelection.

Let’s not forget that the ad that supposedly presents Obama’s record — “Go” — doesn’t mention either of those legislative accomplishments, nor the costly Dodd-Frank Wall Street reform bill passed nearly two years ago.  ObamaCare polls so badly that even a plurality of Democrats want the Supreme Court to strike down the individual mandate on which it’s based.

The Obama-Romney matchups aren’t the only worrisome data from the polls, either.  Despite the best attempts from Democrats to paint Republicans as a disloyal opposition, voters simply aren’t buying it:

Obama’s scores on the economy are worsening, even as voters still have mixed feelings on who’s to blame. In the Battleground survey, nearly as many voters now blame Obama for the state of the economy (39 percent) as those who don’t think it’s his fault (40 percent). In both the Battleground and Democracy Corps polls, 33 percent said the country is on the right track, with 59 percent saying it’s on the wrong track—numbers awfully similar to the state of play right before the 2010 Republican landslide. These are several leading indicators that suggest the trajectory could well get worse for the president as the election nears.

And the survey data suggest that Republicans in Congress, unlike their Newt Gingrich-led counterparts in 1996, aren’t shaping up to be the reviled opposition (yet) that the White House is hoping they’ll be. The Battleground survey found Republicans leading Democrats by 2 points on the generic congressional ballot, while Democracy Corps found Democrats in Congress with only a slightly higher approval score (43.1) than Republicans (41.2). If the public favors Hill Democrats, it’s by a narrow margin.

Finally, Kraushaar argues that the main columns in Obama’s base are significantly less energized than in 2008:

The other big red flag for the president is the waning enthusiasm of his base—college-age voters, African-Americans, and Hispanics. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that fewer than half of voters (45 percent) ages 18-34 expressed a high interest in the election, down 17 points from the same time four years ago. Democratic enthusiasm overall is down 16 points from 2008, and it now lags behind the GOP.

This is critical, because, for Obama, excitement is as important as persuasion. It’s no coincidence that Obama held his first two rallies on college campuses. Obama campaign officials have been anticipating an upward tick in the minority share of the electorate for 2012 to compensate for the expected loss of older, white voters, and they are counting on college students to organize and rally behind the president, like they did for him in 2008. Those assumptions are hardly guaranteed.

We’ve already seen the campaign get embarrassed by bad turnouts for their campaign launch events this week, both at college campuses where Obama attained rock-star status in 2008.  They’re obviously concerned about it, too, because the campaign has launched a $25 million ad buy in nine swing states, according to National Journal — an odd decision six months out from the election, which looks like desperation.  Kraushaar likens it to abandoning the running game when trailing by two touchdowns in a football game, but even more so because this is really the first quarter of the general election campaign.

Not only does it appear that Obama could lose, the campaign seems to exhibiting some signs of panic over the prospect, too.  That may be deliberate, though, as they try to convince donors to open up their checkbooks.  Yesterday, James Carville tried to hit the alarm on CNN, both in an appearance with John King and in a column with a very clear message of WTFU, both of which AP addressed in his QOTD last night.  Carville’s looking at the same polling data as Kraushaar, and the same reality check has resulted.  And in case you’re wondering, WTFU is not a reference to winning the future:

Carville calls for an “insurgent mentality,” but that’s going to be a tall order for the establishment.  Obama has been in office for more than three years.  Is he going to run against himself?  He can’t run against a do-nothing Congress, because the chamber that’s doing nothing is the Senate — which is controlled by Democrats.

Whatever the sense of real or feigned panic, the point to all of this is to get big-ticket liberal donors worried enough to start raising money and engaging in the election.  It may be that these donors already know of Obama’s plight, however, and don’t feel like intervening to save him from his electoral fate.  After all, none of this is exactly news.  The only news is the fact that the media seems to finally be noticing it.


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Obooba loves an underdog. Medium rare.

Akzed on May 9, 2012 at 4:08 PM

Can dogs be gay ?

burrata on May 9, 2012 at 4:15 PM

So, what do you think finally got their attention. A federal inmate getting over 40 percent of the vote in WV or our distinguished President coming out party, yes I believe in same sex marriage Obama?

DDay on May 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

We’ve already seen the campaign get embarrassed by bad turnouts for their campaign launch events this week, both at college campuses where Obama attained rock-star status in 2008.

These are not the same crop of students from 4 years ago, they’ve moved on. The current crop were in HS at that time. Four years is an eon.

Red Creek on May 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

These are not the same crop of students from 4 years ago, they’ve moved on. The current crop were in HS at that time. Four years is an eon.

Red Creek on May 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

Moved on into their parent’s basements.

taternuggets on May 9, 2012 at 4:20 PM

Thinking back to the republicans after Watergate, I am thinking Obama Admin might be in a similar place. He’s not ‘beloved’ by the party anymore than Nixon was. And he has a bunch of scandals starting to pile up – if there is any fire by this smoke, they might try to throw him under the bus to preserve the party. Considering the depth and horror of Watergate, that tactic has to be part of a strategy if they think they’re going to lose. By abandoning Nixon and his hoard, republicans only lost 1 election, a fairly impressive feat. I have to think that history can’t be completely lost on the Obama administration.

WashingtonsWake on May 9, 2012 at 4:22 PM

But the real problem is what happens if he does lose.

He’s never lost before.

Del Dolemonte on May 9, 2012 at 3:01 PM

WRONG! He’s lost his birth certificate, his college transcripts, and 7 of the 57 states, among other things.

redzap on May 9, 2012 at 3:55 PM

A+

lol, of course what I meant was that he’s never Lost an Election before.

BTW, does anyone ever know if O’bama was ever in Debate Society in college? Google refuses to tell me.

Del Dolemonte on May 9, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Obama will never lose this election. Nobody that I know will ever vote for Romney — Dave Letterman

CliveClone on May 9, 2012 at 4:26 PM

Obama campaign officials have been anticipating an upward tick in the minority share of the electorate for 2012 to compensate for the expected loss of older, white voters

Yes, blacks and hispanics will probably be especially motivated to go out and vote for Obama this year. After all, his successful economic policies have created conditions in which it’s easy for blacks and hispanics to get jobs and start new businesses. As an extra motivator, there’s Obama’s newly-announced support for gay marriage — something both blacks and hispanics strongly support (as evidenced by the recent elections in places like NC and California, in which black and hispanic voters flocked to the polls to show their support for gay marriage).

Yes, it’s definitely in the bag for Obama. Can’t imagine why Carville would be worried . . . .

AZCoyote on May 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Hey, don’t call Obama UNDERDOG!

That’s RACIST!

You do remember Underdog’s secret identity, don’t you?

KorlaPundit on May 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

of course what I meant was that he’s never Lost an Election before.

Del Dolemonte on May 9, 2012 at 4:22 PM

Yes, he has. Before being elected to the U.S. Senate, Obama ran for a seat in the House and was defeated (by Bobby Rush, IIRC).

Of course, that was before Barry became the MSM’s darling, and Oprah’s Annointed One. After they noticed him, they created the popular myth of his invincibility.

AZCoyote on May 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

Plus, Obama’s terrible grades in college put the lie to his self-proclaimed intellect.

KorlaPundit on May 9, 2012 at 4:31 PM

A presidency built on lies begins to crumble.

Ain’t REALITY a bitch?

And the really FUNNY part? The whores of the MSM haven’t a clue.

GarandFan on May 9, 2012 at 4:35 PM

He’s never lost before.

Actually, the Presidency is the first election he ever won, really.

He got into both the State Senate and the Senate by having his lawyers strike the other candidates from the ballots, and by having his minions in the press and the court drag poor Jack Ryan’s private divorce records opened to the public.

See, some people don’t deserve privacy. Other people get to print out fake birth certificates and lock up or destroy their records and transcripts.

KorlaPundit on May 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

More Carville please.

His head looks more and more like a Copperhead’s. He must be having surgery to achieve that look.

CorporatePiggy on May 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

He can’t run against a do-nothing Congress, because the chamber that’s doing nothing is the Senate — which is controlled by Democrats.

Do you think even half the electorate knows this? I guarantee where I live, over 50% thinks congress is controlled by Republicans.

rhit87 on May 9, 2012 at 4:36 PM

AZCoyote on May 9, 2012 at 4:27 PM

Top-drawer snark there, Coyote. Heh. He went and bit the hand that feeds him, just couldn’t resist the media splash. What a chump. Obama to Hispanics and blacks–”I don’t need to please you guys; you’re my b*tches.” Yeah, that’s the ticket Obama. You haven’t given them a single reason to vote for you in three and a half years–now you’ll give them a reason to vote against you, or at least not vote at all. Nice going.

smellthecoffee on May 9, 2012 at 4:38 PM

smellthecoffee on May 9, 2012 at 4:38 PM

Thanks, and I agree with your observations as well.

BTW Del, the election Obama lost was a primary election challenge to the Democratic incumbent Bobby Rush (he’s the former Black Panther nitwit recently in the news for showing up in congress wearing a hoodie — “for Trayvon” of course). Bobby Rush, who once said of Obama, “he went to Harvard and made himself into an educated fool,” beat Obama by a wide margin.

AZCoyote on May 9, 2012 at 4:50 PM

Del Dolemonte – no one knows anythig about Obama’s college years.

It’s all sealed and you’re a racist for wondering about it.

krome on May 9, 2012 at 4:51 PM

It’s almost as if he no longer wants his job.

NoDonkey on May 9, 2012 at 3:33 PM

I believe you are right, and he hasn’t wanted it for a while. He has found out that it is real work with a heavy side of stress.

jazzuscounty on May 9, 2012 at 4:52 PM

I can remember this bozo Carville gloating big time after O’s election that the Dems would rule the roost now for the next 45 or 50 years. This is no sh*t. You can look it up.
I guess he forgot he said it. They could not be beat now that they
had Obama. Now the Dem party may go out of existence–Yeah!!!

Pat Fenis on May 9, 2012 at 4:58 PM

Carville just sounds desperate. He’s not the political whiz he thinks he is, and thought he was. He needs to go hunt crawfish for a living. (Do they really suck the guts out of a crawfish through the head? DISGUSTING!)

Wolfmoon on May 9, 2012 at 5:04 PM

I can remember this bozo Carville gloating big time after O’s election that the Dems would rule the roost now for the next 45 or 50 years. This is no sh*t. You can look it up.
I guess he forgot he said it. They could not be beat now that they
had Obama. Now the Dem party may go out of existence–Yeah!!!

Pat Fenis on May 9, 2012 at 4:58 PM

He actually wrote a book about it. We need to give him some credit though because he prefaced that with “if they aren’t arrogant”. Oops.

txhsmom on May 9, 2012 at 5:16 PM

And….

The economy still sucks, but hey, after a day of standing in the soup line you can Marry you same sex lover.

TheGarbone on May 9, 2012 at 5:20 PM

Here’s another “immutable fact:” Obama didn’t choose Chicago because he likes the weather! Chicago’s climate, however, suits him perfectly.

You surely don’t think Chicago will lose this election, do you?

Besides which, God is not done using this little closet sodomite against America just yet. Obama will “come out” after the election, and in more ways than one. The mask will be fully removed at that time.

Before long, God will demonstrate His “opinion” of sodomite marriages and the entire sodomite agenda. When Sodom and Gomorrah go up in smoke (link: http://www.etpv.org/1996-97/acvaldez.html), the “Refugee Era” of America will begin.

May the Lord open your eyes and ears to the truth.

Gordy on May 9, 2012 at 5:23 PM

Oh, underdog. There’s a “dog whistle” to the left and the indies. You know how Americans love the underdog. Great.

How much of the general public realizes that it’s the democrat-run Senate that is doing nothing? I’m not optimistic that many do. I’m afraid that most blame the “obstructionist Republicans” for the lack of action. After all, no one is touting the hundreds (literally) of bills sent from the House to the Senate in the last year and half, all of which are languishing on Harry Reid’s infamous table.

totherightofthem on May 9, 2012 at 5:32 PM

Carville is sounding the alarm. He sees a tsunami coming and it’s aiming for Obama.
Now with Obama pro gay marriage stance this won’t help. Carvillie knows Obama is toast he just won’t say it. He’s just trying to save the party from an oblivion. Obama is the incumbent and now 2 days in a row Romney is beating him by 5 on the Rasmussen poll.

Obama just threw out NC, possibly VA, Indiana is a loss, pennsy will now be in bigger play. I believe Obama is toast

Conservative4ev on May 9, 2012 at 5:40 PM

Ed, do you see that as a tactic? I mean, America loves an underdog, well, in most circumstances they do./

ted c on May 9, 2012 at 4:02 PM

Got there before me.

totherightofthem on May 9, 2012 at 5:41 PM

These are not the same crop of students from 4 years ago, they’ve moved on. The current crop were in HS at that time. Four years is an eon.

Red Creek on May 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

And some of them were just entering high school and had the last 3.5 years to listen to their parents bitch about Obama and his policies. Now that they are in college, I’m thinking he’s going to find feeling the love very difficult.

Case in point: my cousin’s college-age son. He was in high school when Obama got elected. He got to listen to our entire family discuss Obama’s policies with disgust. This is his first presidential campaign. Guess what? He is not voting for Obama. Neither are any of his friends. There may be hope.

totherightofthem on May 9, 2012 at 5:45 PM

These are not the same crop of students from 4 years ago, they’ve moved on. The current crop were in HS at that time. Four years is an eon.

Red Creek on May 9, 2012 at 4:17 PM

And some of them were just entering high school and had the last 3.5 years to listen to their parents b!tch about Obama and his policies. Now that they are in college, I’m thinking he’s going to find feeling the love very difficult.

Case in point: my cousin’s college-age son. He was in high school when Obama got elected. He got to listen to our entire family discuss Obama’s policies with disgust. This is his first presidential campaign. Guess what? He is not voting for Obama. Neither are any of his friends. There may be hope.

totherightofthem on May 9, 2012 at 5:46 PM

Hey, don’t call Obama UNDERDOG!

That’s RACIST!

KorlaPundit on May 9, 2012 at 4:29 PM

Obama’s dog ate his birth certificate.

Then Obama ate the dog.

profitsbeard on May 9, 2012 at 5:56 PM

If 0bama loses, we are going to hear endless elegies on how America proved that it was not yet ready to overcome the legacy of racism, and how the loss exposed the latent racism against the Black Man.

cane_loader on May 9, 2012 at 6:02 PM

%$#@%$#@%$ AUTO-REFRESH #$%$#@%@$ DIE DIE DIE!!!!!$#@%#

Oh, dear, did I say that out loud? I apologize for that outburst. Please stand by for further commentary.

RINO in Name Only on May 9, 2012 at 6:13 PM

If 0bama loses, we are going to hear endless elegies on how America proved that it was not yet ready to overcome the legacy of racism, and how the loss exposed the latent racism against the Black Man.

cane_loader on May 9, 2012 at 6:02 PM

With the economany and job market the way they are most people don’t care.

whbates on May 9, 2012 at 6:17 PM

How much of the general public realizes that it’s the democrat-run Senate that is doing nothing?

Probably a very small number.

I’m afraid that most blame the “obstructionist Republicans” for the lack of action.

totherightofthem on May 9, 2012 at 5:32 PM

I wouldn’t worry about this much, actually. It’s possible some might, though many low-information voters won’t. A lot of these people can’t even name their own congressman. Unless you are following politics somewhat closely, “Congress is obstructing me” has the ring of an excuse, no matter which party is doing the alleged obstruction.

And in fact, even if they do blame the republicans, it’s hard to really pin that on Romney.

There are a number of things Romney can say.

The thing he should probably say is

“Mr. President, every executive has to deal with difficult legislatures at times. I’m sure I’ll have a lot of disagreements with Congressional Democrats when I’m in office. That’s part of the job, and a very important one. You had enormous majorities in both the house and the Senate for your first two years, and a Filibuster-proof majority for the first year. That’s more than most presidents could dream for. But you squandered it on reckless, wasteful spending and a healthcare bill that was quite frankly terrible, corrupt, inefficient (and if the Supreme court overturns it, he can also say “that wasn’t even legal”).

Obviously it would be better if he didn’t have Romneycare looming like a shadow over him. But at least Romneycare was not shoved down the throats of an electorate that despised it. Romney did not brazenly defy the will of his constituents. And he can make that point.

He could also say “Mr. President, You’ve blamed Bush and you’ve blamed congress, you’ve blamed the courts, you’ve blamed the banks… Does any of the blame belong to you?”

And this time, Obama won’t be able to smile and reply, “Yes, because for many years I was a Republican.”

RINO in Name Only on May 9, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Lose?
Whatever happened to the 40 years of Democratic rule that was predicted after the 2008 election?

My collie says:

The Demonrats are going to lose the oval Office, the House, AND the Senate — all in one 4 year election cycle.

That’s like some kinda’ record, or somthin’, isn’t it?

CyberCipher on May 9, 2012 at 6:32 PM

I can’t wait for the MSM avalanche about how the electorate, who showed themselves to be so enlightened a mere four years ago, have metamorphosized into vile racists.

Kataklysmic on May 9, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Forget about the MSM reaction, my radar is on the pre-planned race riots and scripted OWS stunts.

Granted, I’m not in an area likely to be affected personally by either, but that doesn’t mean I can’t envision the likely national impact.

Who is John Galt on May 10, 2012 at 12:48 AM

RINO in Name Only on May 9, 2012 at 6:31 PM

Could you write Romney’s scripts for him please?

totherightofthem on May 10, 2012 at 10:53 AM

Carville is a nucklehead. The do nothing Congress starts with the Senate. The House is passing a lot of bills but they end up dead in the Senate! Hey, Carville Barry has a record now and it is horrible!! I see no jubliation on Obamacare in his accomplishments while in office that he is out there promoting. It’s his RECORD that says plenty to the voters in Nov. It’s his crummy record, man.

karlinsync on May 10, 2012 at 11:53 AM

Can dogs be gay ?

burrata on May 9, 2012 at 4:15 PM

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pPORSlyNc6s

olddog58 on May 10, 2012 at 12:01 PM

No, I’m not a liberal even though this is a PERSONAL attack:

If I looked like Carville, I would shave my butt and walk backwards doing a handstand.

NoPain on May 10, 2012 at 12:40 PM

I used to like Mary Matalin.

TimBuk3 on May 11, 2012 at 9:51 AM

In the event Obama loses this election, what will happen to the White House?
Sophomoric trashing ‘a la Bill Clinton?
Or, what happens if Obama simply refuses to leave?

TimBuk3 on May 11, 2012 at 9:56 AM

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