Gallup: Obama leads Romney on likability by … 29 points

posted at 6:41 pm on May 8, 2012 by Allahpundit

There are lots of polls I don’t worry about but I do worry about this one. Likability won’t decide the election but when you like someone you’re apt to give them the benefit of a doubt they don’t always deserve. I’ve always thought, for instance, that that’s a contributing factor in why huge swaths of the public still blame Bush for the economy even now. Someone who’s personally sympathetic to O will find it easier to identify with his predicament circa 2009 than someone who doesn’t like him. If unemployment drops to, say, 7.8 percent by November, is that good enough for an incumbent win? For an unlikable incumbent, maybe not. For Obama, looking at this kind of spread, who knows?

The independent numbers are what they are. The good news, obviously, is that Romney leads by three points overall on the important metric of who can manage the government most effectively — but I’m not sure how good it is. The Eeyore on my shoulder is whispering that that number shouldn’t be that close given O’s record on debt and the heavy, heavy connotations of leviathan government carried by the Obama brand. But then, most low-information voters don’t really know Romney yet, which means they haven’t been exposed much yet to his core campaign message of managerial competence. If he’s already ahead on this metric, it’s probably more a reflection of “yeah, Obama’s a screw-up” sentiment among the public than any strong appreciation for Romney. And that is good news since it means there’s room for Mitt’s numbers to grow as people become more familiar with his strengths.

As for polls that I don’t worry about, here’s a brand new one from Reuters that puts Obama up seven on Romney nationally — thanks chiefly to a sample with a 12-point Democratic tilt (excluding leaners). Elections guru Jay Cost of the Weekly Standard had a laugh over it on Twitter earlier and noted that even in a poll this blue, O’s job approval stands at just 50 percent. The ice holding him up is awfully thin, and bound to get thinner once conservative Super PACs turn up the heat. Which, of course, explains Obama passing the buck today by whining about Congress as well as this new DNC ad pushing their meme that Romney’s the most conservative candidate in American history or whatever. They’ve got to change the subject, however they can.


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…Stockholm Syndrome!

KOOLAID2 on May 8, 2012 at 7:54 PM

These new trolls are dumber than the old trolls.

fogw on May 8, 2012 at 7:31 PM

Well, it’s hard out there for a preezy. Only half-wits loved Obama enough to troll for him in 2008, so what kind of moron does it take to troll for him now?

Dark Star on May 8, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Pragmatic on May 8, 2012 at 6:57 PM

And here comes the parade of the intellectually disabled.

crosspatch on May 8, 2012 at 7:08 PM

At least it’s good of you to announce yourself.

tom on May 8, 2012 at 7:57 PM

Likability won’t decide the election

And yet somebody felt the need to highlight this poll anyway. Any excuse to wet the bed, I guess…

cicerone on May 8, 2012 at 7:58 PM

Ah my day would not be complete without Allahpundit whining about some new poll. In a day of great polls for Romney (the utterly fictional Reuters/Ipsos poll notwithstanding), Allahpundit managed to find the one cloud and focus on it.

Of course, this is what he does, attempt to dishearten the base with every breath. I just hope Team Obama is paying Allahpundit well enough for selling us out each and every day.

Exactly

MGardner on May 8, 2012 at 8:00 PM

They’re not exactly the same, Likability and Job Approval, so I wonder which one correlates most closely with Electability?

If the later, RCP’s average of polls of Obama’s Job Approval have been hovering between -47 and -48 since mid-February. Holding steady at 2-3 points below majority approval for almost 3 months now, despite the overkilling of Bin Laden, the Phony War on Women, and everything else Obama is throwing out as a distraction, the approval numbers aren’t really moving.

If Job Approval = Electability, Obama’s election prospects have flat-lined.

de rigueur on May 8, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Re-ask the same group:

Do you LIKE:
1) 8.1% unemployment
2) The lowest employment participation rate in 30 yrs
3) $4.50 gal gas
4) 10% food inflation
5) Worst foreclosure rate in decades
6) 7% incr in health care premiums
7) Crony capitalism on steroids

Then, recalculate…Scooter would hit 10%….the black loyalists, who he has disappointed the most….

hillsoftx on May 8, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Which, of course, explains Obama passing the buck today by whining about Congress as well as this new DNC ad pushing their meme that Romney’s the most conservative candidate in American history or whatever. They’ve got to change the subject, however they can.

There’s something really, really funny about Mittwits trying desperately to sell Mitt as a conservative in the primary, only to watch the Dems desperately try to paint Mitt as a conservative in the general election.

Both attempts are unconvincing, to say the least. Yet the election may well hang on how many people they can convince in each case.

tom on May 8, 2012 at 8:04 PM

My guess is people don’t want to sound racist when asked if they like him. Just a guess, cause the guy comes off as a superior narcissistic horse’s hine.

rubberneck on May 8, 2012 at 8:04 PM

Ah my day would not be complete without Allahpundit whining about some new poll. In a day of great polls for Romney (the utterly fictional Reuters/Ipsos poll notwithstanding), Allahpundit managed to find the one cloud and focus on it.

Of course, this is what he does, attempt to dishearten the base with every breath. I just hope Team Obama is paying Allahpundit well enough for selling us out each and every day.

Exactly

MGardner on May 8, 2012 at 8:00 PM

Do you realize how much this sounds like the people who kept complaining that AP was always dumping on Palin?

What can I say? It’s what he does. I guess how you feel about it depends on how you like the object of his attention.

tom on May 8, 2012 at 8:06 PM

To the extent that people do like him – and I believe a lot of people say they like him because they do not want to be thought of as racist – they like him because they do not know him. I’m copying my comment from the Gerson Thread.

His initial appeal was based on covering up and completely ignoring his history. From his membership in the socialist New Party; to the way he had a political opponent’s divorce file unsealed; to his association with Ayers, Rezco and Wright; to his votes to deny medical care to children who survived attempts on their lives; to his statement that he would stand with the Muslims when push came to shove; Barack Obama is an extreme, unprincipled, corrupt leftist. It’s hard to imagine any politician more divisive than this thug.

And he’s a narcissistic incompetent.

Basilsbest on May 8, 2012 at 8:07 PM

These polls are such BS. It is an urban myth that Obama is more likable. There is nothing to like. Why would anyone like him? If you care anything about your country why would you like a guy trying to kill it and everything you have worked for? It makes no sense.

BetseyRoss on May 8, 2012 at 8:07 PM

I don’t get O’s likability . He is shallow, smug, insincere, and much less intelligent than one would expect for someone with his education.

CW on May 8, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Pragmatic on May 8, 2012 at 6:57 PM

And here comes the parade of the intellectually disabled.

crosspatch on May 8, 2012 at 7:08 PM

At least it’s good of you to announce yourself.

tom on May 8, 2012 at 7:57 PM

That might have actually been a little mean. But I suppose it’s no meaner than calling people you disagree with “intellectually disabled.”

tom on May 8, 2012 at 8:08 PM

Jeeminy Christmas, is Allahpundit trolling his own blog?

Unbelievable.

fossten on May 8, 2012 at 8:10 PM

I’ll find Obama likeable….when he’s heading back to Chicago on January 20th, 2013 2017.

Bitter Clinger on May 8, 2012 at 7:32 PM
FIFY

Uppereastside on May 8, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Looking forward to paying your share of the national debt, $140,000 per federal taxpayer by 2017 if Obama gets a second term, or are you part of the 50% that pays no federal income taxes and thus doesn’t consider that? Great philosophy until the money is completely gone and no one will lend the US any more, which should happen about 10 years after that if Obama is re-elected.

talkingpoints on May 8, 2012 at 8:10 PM

To the extent that people do like him – and I believe a lot of people say they like him because they do not want to be thought of as racist – they like him because they do not know him. I’m copying my comment from the Gerson Thread.

His initial appeal was based on covering up and completely ignoring his history. From his membership in the socialist New Party; to the way he had a political opponent’s divorce file unsealed; to his association with Ayers, Rezco and Wright; to his votes to deny medical care to children who survived attempts on their lives; to his statement that he would stand with the Muslims when push came to shove; Barack Obama is an extreme, unprincipled, corrupt leftist. It’s hard to imagine any politician more divisive than this thug.

And he’s a narcissistic incompetent.

Basilsbest on May 8, 2012 at 8:07 PM

The results of consistent good press. I’ll agree, if you can get people to see how slimy Obama is at heart, there’s really no case to be made for him being “likable.”

I’m betting the Romney camp is agonizing over how to attack his “likability” factor without making Romney look much less likable. To the extent that Romney is at a disadvantage here, the likability gap is a huge factor. Sure, Romney can smear Obama for all he’s worth, but that damages his own likability and he can’t afford that.

Should be interesting.

tom on May 8, 2012 at 8:13 PM

I’m betting the Romney camp is agonizing over how to attack his “likability” factor without making Romney look much less likable. To the extent that Romney is at a disadvantage here, the likability gap is a huge factor. Sure, Romney can smear Obama for all he’s worth, but that damages his own likability and he can’t afford that.

Should be interesting.

tom on May 8, 2012 at 8:13 PM

That’s what PACs are for.

fossten on May 8, 2012 at 8:22 PM

Scooter would hit 10%….the black loyalists, who he has disappointed the most….

hillsoftx on May 8, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Never gonna happen, with his black loyalists.
These are the same people who vote for the party of KKK just because it promises them a lifetime of taxpayer funded freebies ….

burrata on May 8, 2012 at 8:28 PM

A presidential candidate people are scared to like in public.. You pubbies have really screwed this one up big time.

Uppereastside on May 8, 2012 at 7:24 PM

If you mean by letting the Marxist Democrats indoctrinate everyone through the school system and media to be deathly afraid of being seen as racist or supporting success, yeah.

Count to 10 on May 8, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Two ways to look at it, his likability is way behind yet he’s up 3-5. What happens when it closes to just 20?

cpaulus on May 8, 2012 at 8:32 PM

That might have actually been a little mean. But I suppose it’s no meaner than calling people you disagree with “intellectually disabled.”

tom on May 8, 2012 at 8:08 PM

I don’t know: “pragmatic” seems to have lost touch with reality.

Count to 10 on May 8, 2012 at 8:32 PM

As for polls that I don’t worry about, here’s a brand new one from Reuters that puts Obama up seven on Romney nationally — thanks chiefly to a sample with a 12-point Democratic tilt (excluding leaners).

So if the actual electorate contains equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans, Romney should win by 5%.

Likability won’t decide the election but when you like someone you’re apt to give them the benefit of a doubt they don’t always deserve.

Some voters who might want to share a beer with Obama, or slow-jam with him, might like him less with his hand on their wallet or purse. Romney has six months to make this point.

Steve Z on May 8, 2012 at 8:38 PM

Almost half the people here would say they don’t “like” Romney, but they’re going to vote for him, so this poll is meaningless.

jan3 on May 8, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Almost half the people here would say they don’t “like” Romney, but they’re going to vote for him, so this poll is meaningless.

jan3 on May 8, 2012 at 9:20 PM

Yep. I despised McCain, and still voted for him.

slickwillie2001 on May 8, 2012 at 9:25 PM

As far as likeability – I’d have to say Obama is the tops in that contest when he’s pitted against Willard McDole.

See – with Ogabe – I know what I’m getting. I’m getting a Soicalist who acts and talks like a Socialist.

With Willy McDole – well, he’s just some kind of gender confused Socialist who runs around saying that he’s a Conservative. Well, sometimes he says that – other times he says he’s a “Progressive” – shoot – with Willy McDole – you just don’t know do ya?

HondaV65 on May 8, 2012 at 9:56 PM

Yep. I despised McCain, and still voted for him.

slickwillie2001 on May 8, 2012 at 9:25 PM

Conservative slaves – so cute. :D

HondaV65 on May 8, 2012 at 9:57 PM

“Gap”? Crap.

MisterElephant on May 8, 2012 at 11:22 PM

Romney is the one who is deficient . . .in every way possible . . .not only did he never serve his country in the military but NONE of his many sons did either . . .I could NEVER vote for someone as impotent and that . . . let alone all of his other deficiencies as regards to conservatism. . .he is truly a pitiful horrible candidate….what a shame.

Pragmatic on May 8, 2012 at 7:13 PM

Eh, “impotent?”

So his sons are adopted?

Your arguments are so simplistic that I wonder how you actually got bounced from your Angry Birds app into Hot Air. Stick with non-intellectual pursuits; you will enjoy the fruits of victory more often.

cane_loader on May 8, 2012 at 11:32 PM

My guess is people don’t want to sound racist when asked if they like him. Just a guess, cause the guy comes off as a superior narcissistic horse’s hine.

rubberneck on May 8, 2012 at 8:04 PM

I think it’s a bit deeper.
They like him because they are afraid that if they don’t, their own subconscious will think they are racist. That’s Barry’s hook.

cane_loader on May 8, 2012 at 11:34 PM

I’m just about to the point where I avoid Allahpundit’s posts. We just learned today that Romney is ahead on Rasmussen and Gallup, and AP decides to post about THIS. Dude, I’m getting annoyed!

Jack_Burton on May 9, 2012 at 12:31 AM

Do people understand how SMALL a percentage of people in this country serve in the military? It is tiny. Never once has there been any implied requirement that a politician serve. There has been a bit of additional respect if they DID serve, but never any expectation that they do. MOST people in this country haven’t served. Our Army is the smallest it has been since 1940. The number of people who have served in the military is shrinking every day.

crosspatch on May 9, 2012 at 12:34 AM

There has never been a politician that the media has swooned over like they’ve swooned over Obama. Add to that, the fact that he’s the first Black POTUS, and the fact that he’s young with two cute daughters, and
that pretty much explains the likability factor.

It’s really no different than people who say that they agree with some of the things Rush Limbaugh says, but they feel obliged to say nasty things about him, to prove that they’re not dittoheads.

It’s all about staking out a sense of independence……..”yeah, I’m not happy with the job Obama is doing, but unlike those Tea Party wackos, I don’t hate the guy”…….”yeah, Rush Limbaugh makes some good points, but the guy’s a pompous blowhard, I don’t know how people listen to him three hours a day”.

ardenenoch on May 9, 2012 at 12:57 AM

I expect we’ll be hearing a lot regarding Willard’s “failure” to serve in the United States military, seeing as how the Preezy of the United Steezy personally commanded the SEALs that got Bin Laden.

Brendon Carr on May 9, 2012 at 9:23 AM

I don’t know how people listen to him three hours a day”.

ardenenoch on May 9, 2012 at 12:57 AM

Because the radio was on.

Extrafishy on May 9, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Never gonna happen, with his black loyalists.
These are the same people who vote for the party of KKK just because it promises them a lifetime of taxpayer funded freebies ….

burrata on May 8, 2012 at 8:28 PM

Add in the OJ jury mentality.

Extrafishy on May 9, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Yeah, we really, really liked him. Really we did!

stillings on May 9, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Are we sure this was Gallup and not a splinter polling group called Galupp? I’m envisioning a couple of middle aged hippies creating a polling company called Galupp and gathering data from coffee shops near Berkeley.

sdbatboy on May 9, 2012 at 11:28 AM

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