Whither the Hispanic vote?

posted at 7:01 pm on May 5, 2012 by Karl

Ronald Brownstein asks whether Hispanic immigration trends will hurt Obama in 2012, and comes up with the relatively obvious answer that they will not, as new immigrants are a tiny part of the electorate in any given year. The so-called experts agree that immigration trends are a longer-term issue (though we should note that at least one of the so-called experts quoted by Brownstein was late to notice that immigration from Mexico is drying up). Some will be concerned that illegal immigration from Mexico will rise again when the US economy recovers. However, as Michael Barone notes, Mexico’s population growth has slowed way down and Mexico has had a stronger economic recovery from the global recession than the US experienced. The more cheeky might suggest Brownstein’s question is backward: Obama hurt immigration more than immigration hurts Obama.

Nevertheless, Brownstein’s article ends up noting the more interesting medium-term questions involve younger and future generations of Hispanics already here and automatically eligible to vote. Democrats rely on straight-line projections of growth in this demographic as part of their Emerging Democratic Majority theory. However, as Steve Malanga suggested after the 2008 election, the economy is a big part of the Hispanic vote, just like it is to everyone else:

Why has the GOP been unable to make more headway among Hispanics? One answer has to do with income. As political scientist Andrew Gelman notes in his new book, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State, lower-income voters continue to vote disproportionately Democratic, despite a popular notion among pundits that many of them have shifted to the GOP for cultural reasons. That fact suggests that Hispanics—nearly half of whom live in households whose earnings fall in the country’s bottom two income quintiles—would naturally trend Democratic. And in fact, in the McCain-Obama contest, 83 percent of Hispanic voters with annual incomes of $15,000 or less voted for Obama, as did 71 percent of those earning between $15,000 and $30,000. By contrast, 51 percent of those with household incomes between $150,000 and $200,000 voted for McCain.

Sean Trende makes a similar point in his recent book, The Lost Majority, while also noting that if the Democrats decide to pander heavily to Hispanics on issues like immigration, they risk losses among other groups.

The latest data crunched by the Pew Hispanic Center suggests successive generations of Hispanic youth are catching up economically. Indeed, later generations are already marginally more likely to identify themselves as Americans first (and even more likely to identify as white). A pause in illegal immigration may allow for even swifter assimilation. That would be good for America generally and Hispanics in particular, but perhaps much less good for the Democratic Party.

As for the short-term, Brownstein reports that while there will be 22-24 million Hispanics eligible to vote this year:

Hispanic registration is not keeping pace. The number of Hispanics registered to vote grew from 9.3 to 11.6 million from 2004 to 2008. But in 2010, Hispanic registrations declined to 10.9 million, according to Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velasquez Institute, which studies Hispanic political participation.

***

At one point, Gonzalez predicted that 12 million Hispanics would vote in 2012, up from just under 10 million in 2008 and about 7.6 million in 2004. Now he thinks it unlikely to reach such a peak. While there will be a “surge” in Hispanic voter registration this year, Gonzalez says, it will begin from the depressed level it reached after 2010. And that ultimately will yield a harvest of around 11 million Hispanic voters this fall, and possibly less, he says. Concerted registration and turnout efforts from Democrats likely will enlarge Hispanic participation in a few key states, especially Southwestern states like Arizona and Nevada, but unless something changes, Gonzalez predicts, “We won’t be turbocharged as a national electorate.”

Again, less than ideal for the Democrats.

This post was promoted from GreenRoom to HotAir.com.
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S L U T…!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:05 PM

…anything for a vote!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:05 PM

…JugEars would eat dog for a vote!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:05 PM

…oh wait!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:06 PM

…he has!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:06 PM

…puppy chow!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:06 PM

…Bishop took over my fingers again!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:07 PM

You’d think Hispanics and White Hispanics would want jobs too.
/

CW on May 5, 2012 at 7:07 PM

…told me several times to slow down…see what Bishop does!

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:08 PM

True story: I had a Hispanic couple in my office on Friday, wife pregnant and on medicaid and she had an Obama Tee on I sort of looked around until I read it: “How’s That Hopey Changey Working for YOU?! NObama!”
Made me smile. I don’t say anything to patients ever about politics 99.9 percent of the time and I didn’t even comment on it. They saw the grin.

Marcus on May 5, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Whither the Hispanic vote?

It’s the non-white-Hispanic vote.

If the Latinos would wake up they’d realize that they’re taken for fools, by no other than the lefties.

Pitchfork them – they want to keep you in the modern day plantation, for votes. That’s it.

Schadenfreude on May 5, 2012 at 7:12 PM

Si Si puedo!!!

docflash on May 5, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Mi quiero mas opciones por favor.

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on May 5, 2012 at 7:16 PM

The latest data crunched by the Pew Hispanic Center suggests successive generations of Hispanic youth are catching up economically.

Democrats better find a way to put a stop to this. I know they are trying, but they need to destroy opportunity more quickly.

forest on May 5, 2012 at 7:16 PM

The economy here is so bad, that the Mexicans are fleeing back to Mexico.

newportmike on May 5, 2012 at 7:29 PM

Obama is in deep, deep trouble. He is unable to attract the crowds he used to, he is losing the young voter demographic, his most enthusiastic demographics are losing their enthusiasm. White folks who were afraid not to vote for him last time lest they be branded a “racist” have given him his chance and he has failed.

I believe it is all downhill from here for Obama.

crosspatch on May 5, 2012 at 7:31 PM

I found this to be more interesting:

[T]his is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly.

That figure fell 5% across the country, to about 11 million, according to the Census Bureau. But in some politically important swing states, the decline among Hispanics, who are considered critical in the 2012 presidential contest, is much higher: just over 28% in New Mexico, for example, and about 10% in Florida.

No to worry, though; the Dems will make up the difference with felons and dead people…

rcpjr on May 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

Obama dined
A puppy died.

SparkPlug on May 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

“That would be good for America generally and Hispanics in particular, but perhaps much less good for the Democratic Party.”

We can’t have THAT now…

… can we?

/

Seven Percent Solution on May 5, 2012 at 7:35 PM

Obama ate a Hispanic dog. So sad.

SparkPlug on May 5, 2012 at 7:38 PM

Whither the Hispanic vote?

Shouldn’t that be Wither?

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on May 5, 2012 at 7:40 PM

Don’t trust anything from Pew. They put their own politics over the science and ethics of polling.

slickwillie2001 on May 5, 2012 at 7:41 PM

“Indeed, later generations are already marginally more likely to identify themselves as Americans first (and even more likely to identify as white).”

This statement shown to Liberals and Democrats…

… is like showing a Vampire the mid-day Summer sun in the middle of Texs.

Seven Percent Solution on May 5, 2012 at 7:49 PM

I don’t think Jehmu Green’s racist slurs against bow tyin’ white boys helps Obama with this constituency, either. ¡Feliz Cinco de Mayo!

de rigueur on May 5, 2012 at 7:53 PM

Hitler Discovers that Obama Has Stolen His Motto, “Forward”

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSoa_n0PI4Q&feature=player_embedded

Green eyed Lady on May 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

On a related note re Hispandering, this Indianapolis television investigative report has uncovered IRS fraud via child-care claims by illegals to the tune of billions.

http://www.wthr.com/video?clipId=7054149&topVideoCatNo=103348&autoStart=

onlineanalyst on May 5, 2012 at 7:57 PM

I really wonder if anyone in the MSM sees the irony of first debating the ups and downs of the ILLEGAL imigrant vote, then running anti-cardcheck voting laws.

James Moriarty on May 5, 2012 at 8:00 PM

…puppy chow!…Burma Shave

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 7:06 PM

..you ought to see if you can resurrect those slogans on one of your “Bishop” tricks.

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

Big voter registration drive where I live in Texas. But this is a good thing, not many people who will actually vote like this Guy.

DDay on May 5, 2012 at 8:04 PM

..you ought to see if you can resurrect those slogans on one of your “Bishop” tricks.

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

lol Thanks for the link, that’s a great ad

WeekendAtBernankes on May 5, 2012 at 8:10 PM

Ronald Brownstein asks whether Hispanic immigration trends will hurt Obama in 2012, and comes up with the relatively obvious answer that they will not

Maybe not, but it does mean they’ll have to raise a lot more dead votes to make up for the emigrating illegals.

WeekendAtBernankes on May 5, 2012 at 8:12 PM

Si Si se puedo!!!

docflash on May 5, 2012 at 7:14 PM

Mi Yo quiero mas opciones por favor.

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on May 5, 2012 at 7:16 PM

..c’mon guys.

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 8:13 PM

and if Romney … well O.K. not Romney but that evil B Rove starts running adds touting obama effectiveness at killing Mexican citizens in Mexico I wonder if we could turn or reduce the Hispanic vote by a few % points over what it was in 08 ….and a few % is all it will take in a few key states like say CO.

Aggie95 on May 5, 2012 at 8:15 PM

Donde esta DBear?

..telling his primas y primos to hate el Diablo blanco Republicana que soy de el Norte?

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 8:16 PM

..telling his primas y primos to hate el Diablo blanco Republicana que soy de el Norte?

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 8:16 PM

…el Diablo Republicano blanco del Norte…

De nada.

de rigueur on May 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

More importantly, whither the white vote? The Democratic Party has used anti-white racial demagoguery for decades. Does anyone seriously think whites haven’t noticed?

Hilda Solis is Labor Secretary. She is the former La Raza (“The Race”) member who recently marched hand-in-hand with Al Sharpton for the Trayvon Martin race baiting protests. Obama appointed the Cecilia Munoz, the Senior Vice President of La Raza, as head of his Domestic Policy Council. Eric Holder openly states he cares about black advantage and doesn’t care about whites. These are but a few examples of their mentality.

Democrats have worked hard to provoke white “racial consciousness” and now they’re getting it. Will they be able to survive it?

Django on May 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

Indeed, later generations are already marginally more likely to identify themselves as Americans first (and even more likely to identify as white).

Babaloo!

:)

Ladysmith CulchaVulcha on May 5, 2012 at 8:23 PM

I found this to be more interesting:

[T]his is the first time in nearly four decades that the number of registered Hispanics has dropped significantly.

That figure fell 5% across the country, to about 11 million, according to the Census Bureau. But in some politically important swing states, the decline among Hispanics, who are considered critical in the 2012 presidential contest, is much higher: just over 28% in New Mexico, for example, and about 10% in Florida.

No to worry, though; the Dems will make up the difference with felons and dead people…

rcpjr on May 5, 2012 at 7:34 PM

.
That’s a LOT of registered dead people, but I guess if there’s anyone that can do it . . . . . .

listens2glenn on May 5, 2012 at 8:27 PM

Again, less than ideal for – the Democrats.

Theophile on May 5, 2012 at 8:45 PM

…el Diablo Republicano blanco del Norte…

De nada.

de rigueur on May 5, 2012 at 8:21 PM

..muchas garcias y buenas knockers. I was lampooning my pathetic high school Spanish.

…el Republicano Norte Americano blanco del Norte…

All I can really remember is “a mi me gustan los albondigas” and “donde esta la bibliotheca?”

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 9:35 PM

..you ought to see if you can resurrect those slogans on one of your “Bishop” tricks.

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 8:02 PM

…sure!…but I can’t think when no one responds…I’m a conservative.

KOOLAID2 on May 5, 2012 at 10:01 PM

Hey DIMocrat Hispanic voters: Obama and the DIMocrats only care about you one day every 2 years… this year, it is NO-vember 6th…

If they REALLY cared about you, they would have passed comprehensive immigration reform in 2009 when they had huge majorities in the House and Senate…

But they didn’t… why is that??

Oh yeah, they know every 2 or 4 years they can trot out the “Si se puede!” applause lines, and you will march lockstep down to the polls to vote for hope and change…

How’s that working out for you lately?? Just asking…

There is a reason I’ve called the DIMocrats the ‘Plantation Party’ since I was old enough to vote… Nothing has changed, but they’ve moved you into the quarters out by the field as another “field hand” that can be counted on to vote like sheep… And keep them in power up in the “Big House”…

If you want something to get done for your voting block, start electing Hispanic Republicans instead of Democrats in districts you control (voting wise)… It all starts with YOU…

Khun Joe on May 5, 2012 at 10:04 PM

The GOP should concentrate on the 40% of Hispanics who RESPECT THE LAW.

And not pander to the 54% who want amnesty for illegal aliens(i. e., rewarding criminals with their ill-gotten goods — residency).

Listen to this illegal alien explain why attrition through enforcement works.

Hopefully, Mitt will stick with what his campaign promises. Fingers crossed. Two months ago, when Mitt was on the Charley Rose show, Rose couldn’t believe it when Mitt said about current illegal aliens, “Yes, they have to go home.” THREE TIMES!

fred5678 on May 5, 2012 at 10:28 PM

..Rose couldn’t believe it when Mitt said about current illegal aliens, “Yes, they have to go home.” THREE TIMES!

fred5678 on May 5, 2012 at 10:28 PM

..Rose is an absolutely obtuse liberal and he traffics in that goofy stare of his. It is, of course, reserved for conservatives who proffer truth and common sense during his interviews. It’s almost like Rose will absorb the remark and then, dramatically, piece the fourth wall of his little liberal NPR stage and wink at his sycophantic audience as if to say, “see, doesn’t this confirm that this guy is certifiable?”

..as in the time The Nooge went off on the CBS asss-sucking lib interviewer and Rose was serving as the ringleader of this little liberal CBS Morning Whatever nut fry:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57427792/ted-nugent-takes-aim-at-brain-dead-liberals/

(Warning: you gotta get through their obligatory 30-second spot and then this lip-pursing, sanctimonious bravo sierra begins at 7:20 in the vid.)

The War Planner on May 5, 2012 at 10:50 PM

I just want someone as President that respects and abides by our Constitution.

A President who loves our country.

Is that too much to ask for?

As you can see obama will not get my vote.

losarkos on May 6, 2012 at 3:40 PM