Unemployment rate at 8.1%, only 115K jobs added, participation rate shrinks again to new low

posted at 8:31 am on May 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

The April jobs report fell short of analysts expectations, as only 115,000 jobs were added.  Consensus expectations had been in the 165K-170K range, which still would have been below the rate jobs were added in February, January, and December.  While the jobless rate dropped slightly, the number of jobs added came in short of March’s disappointing level:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 8.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade, and health care, but declined in transportation and warehousing.

Both the number of unemployed persons (12.5 million) and the unemployment rate (8.1 percent) changed little in April. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (7.5 percent), adult women (7.4 percent), teenagers (24.9 percent), whites (7.4 percent), and Hispanics (10.3 percent) showed little or no change in April, while the rate for blacks (13.0 percent) declined over the month. The jobless rate for Asians was 5.2 percent in April (not seasonally adjusted), little changed from a year earlier. (See tables A-1, A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was little changed at 5.1 million in April. These individuals made up 41.3 percent of the unemployed. Over the year, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 759,000. (See table A-12.)

So how did the jobless rate drop?  The same way it’s been dropping all along — people exiting the workforce:

The civilian labor force participation rate declined in April to 63.6 percent, while the employment-population ratio, at 58.4 percent, changed little.

That’s a new 30-year low in the participation rate.  Here’s the chart from the BLS for the last 30 years:

Note that the biggest and steepest plunge has taken place since the Obama recovery started in June 2009.

The U-6 rate held steady in April nonetheless at 14.5%, even with the increased exodus of workers from the workforce.

Update: CNBC notes that the actual employment level in the US fell by 169,000:

April’s job report lived up to muted expectations, with the economy creating a meager 115,000 jobs during the month as the unemployment rate fell to 8.1 percent. …

Though the headline number indicated job creation, the total employment level for the month actually fell 169,000.

“This remains a weak economy, and the job counts in March and April — which have come in at considerably below 200,000 per month — may perhaps continue right through the summer,” said Kathy Bostjancic, director of macroeconomic analysis at The Conference Board.

Wall Street economists had been expecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics report to show 170,000 new jobs created and the unemployment rate   holding steady at 8.2 percent.

That weakness will keep jobs and the economy at the top of the list for voter concerns, and keep Obama and his campaign on their mission to talk about any other distraction they can find from it.

Update II: Zero Hedge notes that 522,000 people left the workforce in April, or more than four times the number of net jobs gained in the BLS report.

Update III: Yes, but what does Reuters say?  The rose-colored-glasses wire service calls this a “mixed” report:

Employers decreased hiring for the second straight month in April but the unemployment rate still fell to 8.1 percent, giving mixed messages about the economy’s strength ahead of President Barack Obama’s November re-election bid.

Employers added 115,000 workers to their payrolls last month, the Labor Department said on Friday.

The reading keeps fears alive that the U.S. economy is losing momentum and dampens hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring signaled a turning point for the recovery.

The unemployment rate ticked a tenth of a point lower to a three-year low, as people left the work force. The jobless rate is derived from a separate survey of households, which showed a drop in the number of jobs in April.

So what was the “mixed” part?  The BLS adjusted the jobs gains numbers in February and March upward, but you have to love how Reuters frames it:

Still, the government revised upward its initial estimates for payroll growth in February and March by a combined 53,000. That left the six-month average of job growth at 197,000, nearly exactly where it would have been had April job growth come in as expected at 170,000.

But, er … it didn’t.  So what does that tell us about the economy and jobs growth?  It ain’t a mixed message.


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Total not in labor force, April 2011: 86,248,000
Total not in labor force, April 2012: 88,879,000

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 9:21 AM

second page FIRST

Bensonofben on May 4, 2012 at 9:21 AM

ish

Bensonofben on May 4, 2012 at 9:21 AM

EASY to see coming. It’s gasoline at $4.00/gal that is causing this slow down in the economy. Only reason we expanded over the winter was gas went below $3.50/gal for a month or so. As long as gas is over $3.50/gal we will get no recovery.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:23 AM

Half million people drop out of the labor force in one month again. It’s an unmitigated disaster. The old way of counting unemployment is beyond useless – besides being used to deceive people.

forest on May 4, 2012 at 9:24 AM

I think there is a collusion among corporations not to hire until this a$$clown is hopefully gone. They know their companies can’t survive four more of this.

msupertas on May 4, 2012 at 9:15 AM

No doubt true, as it’s well known in my hubby’s business that his vendors are taking apps, but building a huge pile before even considering any hires until the SCOTUS makes up its mind, and a conservative occupies the WH.

pambi on May 4, 2012 at 9:24 AM

By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER ~ Associated Press:

Weak job gains pose a threat to President Barack Obama’s reelection. He is likely to face voters this fall with the highest unemployment rate of any president since World War II.

Economists surveyed by the Associated Press said hiring should be sufficient to push the unemployment rate below 8 percent by Election Day. The 32 economists surveyed by the AP see steady job gains averaging 177,000 a month for the rest of this year. That should be enough to lower the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent by November.

Like I said…….7.9% and BBQed unicorns in every pot.

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Go RBNY on May 4, 2012 at 9:13 AM

True, but the MSM still reach far more people. And after watching Hannity’s interview with the Occupy Wall Street guy I am really wondering about the intelligence of the average voter. The one’s who concern me are those who think they are smarter than the rest of us. Arrogantly stupid is what they are.

tbrickert on May 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

…except for all the debt, which we’ll be paying off for decades.)

eyedoc on May 4, 2012 at 9:19 AM

We’ll never pay off the debt. We’ll just keep printing money and spending until the money is worthless and the economy collapses, see Weimar Germany hyperinflation.

Gladtobehere on May 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

Oh this is funny…in a sad sort of way:

The comedy continues: the April “Not in labor force” seasonally adjusted print: 88,419,000. And yet, the maximum reading permitted by St Louis Fed Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000) graph: 88,000,000. The data has now officially dropped off the chart. No further commentary necessary

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

If Republicans want to explain this ‘unemployment drops as participation rate declines’ concept, Paul Ryan needs to go on national TV and explain how denominators and numerators work.Until then people are going to assume that Obama sprinkled magic dust on the unemployment rate….as they sit home during the day eating cheezie-poofs, collecting a check.

shannon76 on May 4, 2012 at 9:14 AM

Republicans have always been horrible at messaging.

angryed on May 4, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Well mitt as his team could start by stop repeating the phrase “the economy is improving” and instead just repeat worse economy since Carter over and over.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Well mitt as his team could start by stop repeating the phrase “the economy is improving” and instead just repeat worse economy since Carter over and over.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:26 AM

Exactly

CTSherman on May 4, 2012 at 9:28 AM

Rovin, msdnc will spin that 7.9 big time I bet

cmsinaz on May 4, 2012 at 9:29 AM

Well mitt as his team could start by stop repeating the phrase “the economy is improving” and instead just repeat worse economy since Carter over and over.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:26 AM

I agree, he needs to change his message, but now that he started with the “economy’s improving” bit he’s stuck with it. Is he going to go out and say “well, I was wrong, it’s not improving after all”? What little credibility he has on economic matters will be toast.

Lost in Jersey on May 4, 2012 at 9:30 AM

James Pethokoukis should come out soon to recalculate the unemployment number, to show what it’d be if the rate were calculated the same way as it was when Obama took office.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 9:30 AM

The employment rate won’t be bad until the newspapers start laying off economists.

aniptofar on May 4, 2012 at 9:31 AM

I guess they need a dictionary. Unemployed means not working, not looking for work. Report the dang numbers correctly, as by definition. Just not counting another 1/2 million to make the number look good in print is B.S. and the media should be ashamed at carrying this farce on.

Schwalbe Me-262 on May 4, 2012 at 9:32 AM

Repeat these words out loud to yourself…

Fifth Column Treasonous Media.

Remember as you repeat them that “Words have meanings”…

America’s unemployment rate is not 8.1 percent, in all honesty, it’s probably between 15 and 20%. It’s not going down, it’s going up and getting worse by the day despite what the Fifth Column Treasonous Media insists on reporting. Do not think for one second that they do not know the truth, because they do.

Now once again repeat these words out loud to yourself…

Fifth Column Treasonous Media.

Words really do have meanings…

SWalker on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 AM

job gains averaging 177,000 a month for the rest of this year. That should be enough to lower the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent by November.

Doesn’t it take 250,000ish to just maintain?

MNHawk on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Doesn’t it take 250,000ish to just maintain?

MNHawk on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Only during republican administrations.

Lost in Jersey on May 4, 2012 at 9:35 AM

I agree, he needs to change his message, but now that he started with the “economy’s improving” bit he’s stuck with it. Is he going to go out and say “well, I was wrong, it’s not improving after all”? What little credibility he has on economic matters will be toast.

Lost in Jersey on May 4, 2012 at 9:30 AM

Complete BS. Try again.

cicerone on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 AM

The Lyin kINGS’ er Obamas immigration policy is working astonishingly well!

522,000 people left the workforce in April, or more than four times the number of net jobs gained in the BLS report

All those White Hispanics are returning to their homeland and growing the drug trade, er economy of Meheho!
Thus the economy and country is on the right track for an electoral wipeout by the kING!

Sincerely, The Presstitutes!

This report should be called the BSL report BullShi>>ing Liars Report instead of the BLS Report!

ConcealedKerry on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 AM

James Pethokoukis should come out soon to recalculate the unemployment number, to show what it’d be if the rate were calculated the same way as it was when Obama took office.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 9:30 AM

I January 2009 the participation rate was 65.7%. At that rate, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.1%, a full 3 percentage points higher than the official number.

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Like I said…….7.9% and BBQed unicorns puppies in every pot.

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 9:37 AM

job gains averaging 177,000 a month for the rest of this year. That should be enough to lower the unemployment rate to 7.9 percent by November.

Doesn’t it take 250,000ish to just maintain?

MNHawk on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Don’t be silly, “We’ve always been at war with Eastasia

SWalker on May 4, 2012 at 9:37 AM

What little credibility he has on economic matters will be toast.

Lost in Jersey on May 4, 2012 at 9:30 AM

That’s is why I think Mitt will lose come Nov. He never leads but always reacts to events. Obama and the media started the meme that the economy is improving over the winter to frame the general election. Mitt and his team who are not impacted by economic swings much and have different guages for economic health than the vast majority of people bought it hook line and sinker. and thus Mitt was neatly placed in a box. He can pivot and say the economy was improving but due to Obama’s terrible energy plocies and inepte foriegn policy Gas skyrocketed to $4.00/gal and stalled what little economic improvement there was. But again the price of gas doesn’t impact our elites so why would they think a little thing like a .50-.75 a gal move in the price of gas would have such a major impact. whihc is why the elites are always blindsided by “unexpected economic news”

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I think I found who is taking those jobs.

Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted

Looks like those 65 and over has increased by 500,000 from last year. Wait… that’s not right. I keep being told that the Baby Boomers are retiring, which is why the participation rate is going down. But, the 65 and over crowd participation rate is going up, while the under 65 is going down.

LoganSix on May 4, 2012 at 9:39 AM

At that rate, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.1%, a full 3 percentage points higher than the official number.

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Recovery!

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 9:40 AM

The only thing that matters politically is the unemployment rate and that number has been leading every newscast. And the fact of the matter is that when it goes down, Obama is given the credit.

gumbyandpokey on May 4, 2012 at 9:41 AM

FORWARD! Lovingly
The Presstitutes

ConcealedKerry on May 4, 2012 at 9:41 AM

I ran the numbers comparing January, 2009, to April, 2012:

January 2009:

Civilian labour force: 153,716m
Employed: 142,099m
Unemployed: 11,616m
Not in labour force: 81,023m
Participation Rate: 65.5%
Average Weeks Unemployed: 19.8
Unemployment rate: 7.6%

April 2012

Civilian labour force: 154,365m
Employed: 141,865m
Unemployed: 12,500m
Not in labour force: 88,419m
Participation rate: 63.6%
Average Weeks Unemployed: 39.1
Unemployment rate: 8.1%

Change:

Civilian labour force: + .422%
Employed: – .1647%
Unemployed: + 7.61%
Not in labour force: + 9.13%
Participation rate: – 2.9%
Average Weeks Unemployed: + 97.47%
Unemployment rate: + 6.6%

Hope. Change. Chronic unemployment.

Resist We Much on May 4, 2012 at 9:42 AM

Like I said…….7.9% and BBQed unicorns in every pot.

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 9:25 AM

The AP announced it yesterday. I’ll wager Hilda Solis will get it even lower than that!

So 365,000 more lost their jobs last week, 115,000 jobs have been created (if you believe them), 169,000 got kicked out of the workforce, and how many new people JOINED the workforce?

They LIE.

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 9:42 AM

I think I found who is taking those jobs.

Employment status of the civilian population by sex, age, and disability status, not seasonally adjusted

Looks like those 65 and over has increased by 500,000 from last year. Wait… that’s not right. I keep being told that the Baby Boomers are retiring, which is why the participation rate is going down. But, the 65 and over crowd participation rate is going up, while the under 65 is going down.

LoganSix on May 4, 2012 at 9:39 AM

That’s because the Obama Economic powerhouse boom wiped out their retirement accounts and they can’t retire now…

SWalker on May 4, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Explaining the shrinking workforce and its effect on these numbers is quite easy. You say:

If your desperate attempts to find a job in the Obama Depression have been so dismal that you’ve all but given up, the Obama Labor Department doesn’t count you anymore as unemployed. A job for you does not exist — has not existed for a long, long time — but to the Obama administration, that means YOU cannot exist either, because if you did exist, the Obama unemployment rate would be 14%. So you don’t exist. You are nothing. You are not an American worker. You are not an American citizen. You are not an American voter. You. Do. Not. Exist. Your efforts to find a job are not worth counting in the Obama Administration’s phony labor statistics. YOUR desperate, long-term unemployment is inconvenient for Barack’s re-election efforts, so you have to be eliminated from his data. Think of yourself as just another person who has been thrown under the bus so Barack Obama can retain his political power. How does it feel to be “disappeared” by your own government?

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Doesn’t it take 250,000ish to just maintain?

MNHawk on May 4, 2012 at 9:33 AM

Yes. And if memory serves John Lott confirmed this on TEMS this week.

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 9:44 AM

How does it feel to be “disappeared” by your own government?

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Wow, well written. It’s Orwellian what they’re doing, isn’t it?

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 9:46 AM

so we added 115,000 jobs but 522,000 people gave up looking…so a net drop in employement of nearly 400,000 folks and the Unemployment rate dropped from 8.2% to 8.1%…..no cooking of the books in the grandest Chicaga way!!!

SDarchitect on May 4, 2012 at 9:46 AM

How much of that decline is due to retirement and early retirement of baby boomers
…?

Dasher on May 4, 2012 at 9:18 AM

Admittedly I don’t know where to find your answer.
Possibly, the answer is none.
I have heard many reports of boomers delaying retirement because their portfolios have shrunk to where they cannot afford to retire.
I would love to see some hard numbers.

topdog on May 4, 2012 at 9:47 AM

The logical outcome of the Gimmecrats practicing Gimme-nomics.

David on May 4, 2012 at 9:47 AM

Cookin’ the books. Again. A/P is right. Unemployment will be below 8% by election time. Coincidence? I think not.

totherightofthem on May 4, 2012 at 9:49 AM

How does the government, with straight faces, keep giving that fraudulent unemployment number? True, the way it is calculated has not changed. However, that number is so deceiving when job creation is poor and people are “dropping out” of the work force by the hundreds of thousands every month.

milcus on May 4, 2012 at 9:49 AM

How does it feel to be “disappeared” by your own government?

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 9:43 AM

Wow, well written. It’s Orwellian what they’re doing, isn’t it?

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 9:46 AM

Just wait until little Billy Ayer’s get’s to open his Reeducation Camps where 50 million or so of us American’s who refuse to convert to the new Marxist ideology will have the pleasure of being eliminated. (For the Children, of course)

SWalker on May 4, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Time for my new song, all together now!

To the tune of Maria from West Side Story (no show tunes jokes, please.)

The longest soup line I ever saw:
Depression, Depression, Depression, Despression . . .
All the sounds of shuttered factories in a single word . .
Depression, Depression, Depression, Depression . . .
Depression!
I now see a time of Depression,
And suddenly that word
Will never be the same
To me.
Depression!
I’ve just lost my job to Depression,
And suddenly I’ve heard
How terrible a word
Can be!
Depression!
Say it loud and the dems are all laughing,
Say it soft and it’s almost like crying.

depressioooon, depression!
I once knew a time of depression!
dogsoldier on May 2, 2012 at 11:27 AM

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 9:50 AM

I think there is a collusion among corporations not to hire until this a$$clown is hopefully gone. They know their companies can’t survive four more of this.

msupertas on May 4, 2012 at 9:15 AM

No doubt true, as it’s well known in my hubby’s business that his vendors are taking apps, but building a huge pile before even considering any hires until the SCOTUS makes up its mind, and a conservative occupies the WH.

pambi on May 4, 2012 at 9:24 AM

They are also right to be terrified of what might come if the jackass is reelected. We will likely see some form of cap and trade, microunions, an end to secret balloting for greedy unions, trillions more in stimulus, etc, etc.

We will see a constitutional crisis over Executive Orders.

slickwillie2001 on May 4, 2012 at 9:52 AM

If the Lyin kING can just get that 63% employed number to 63% on Goberment assistance he election is guaranteed and we are happy to Halp!
Your Welcome,
The Presstitutes!

ConcealedKerry on May 4, 2012 at 9:55 AM

slickwillie2001 on May 4, 2012 at 9:52 AM

Yup, it’s really creepy.
It’s always been smart to distrust the government, but to TOTALLY FEAR it, is pretty new to the hard-working adults out here !!

pambi on May 4, 2012 at 9:57 AM

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:37 AM

I think your wrong here unseen. This election will be decided on the turnout. If, (and it’s a big if), the Republican Party rallies their base to a moderate to good turnout, AND Obama loses 20-25% of the youth and black vote, (who will stay home), Romney wins big. (Indys still play into this factor).

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I[n] January 2009 the participation rate was 65.7%. At that rate, today’s unemployment rate would be 11.1%, a full 3 percentage points higher than the official number.

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 AM

The Romney campaign should be communicating this exact thing. This should be issue numero uno. It should be on t-shirts and bumper stickers and national political adds on television.

oldroy on May 4, 2012 at 9:59 AM

If this bozo gets re-elected, we’d better pray for the Mayan apocalypse. We don’t stand a chance otherwise.

totherightofthem on May 4, 2012 at 10:02 AM

EASY to see coming. It’s gasoline at $4.00/gal that is causing this slow down in the economy. Only reason we expanded over the winter was gas went below $3.50/gal for a month or so. As long as gas is over $3.50/gal we will get no recovery.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:23 AM

You have it backwards. Gas prices holding steady or in slow decline right now are an indication of a shrinking economy.

NotCoach on May 4, 2012 at 10:02 AM

Change in nonfarm payrolls, January 2009 – April 2012

Total: +0.5%
Total private: +0.6%
Goods producing: -7.9%
Manufacturing: -5.5%
Service providing, private: +1.0%

Government: -0.1%
Federal government: +1.0%

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 10:06 AM

Great post resist we much

cmsinaz on May 4, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Chucky Todd just interviewed one of Obama’s economic advisors and this idiot had the nads to say the reason the rate went down was because more people were finding jobs! No sh**, with a straight face, and Chucky of course said nothing to challenge this balderdash.

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Too much negativity here at HotGas I’m going over to Aces place!

Long live the BSL and the Lyin kINGs Presstitutes!
We have become Chicago!

ConcealedKerry on May 4, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Complete BS. Try again.

cicerone on May 4, 2012 at 9:36 AM

Wow! You’ve convinced me with your indisputable logic. You win.

I think your wrong here unseen. This election will be decided on the turnout. If, (and it’s a big if), the Republican Party rallies their base to a moderate to good turnout, AND Obama loses 20-25% of the youth and black vote, (who will stay home), Romney wins big. (Indys still play into this factor).

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I think unseen is right in that Willard does do a lot of reacting, but I agree with you that this election turns on turnout, particularly turnout of conservatives desperate to get rid of zero. The youth vote has lost interest in making history so they’re not going to be as big a factor. Similarly, there was a lot of black vote in ’08 that had never voted before. I don’t think they come out again since there’s nothing historic going on this time around. I don’t think zero loses these two groups to Romney, but I do think he loses them to disinterest. They simply won’t show up.

While I don’t believe it will be a cake walk, I do think 08 was a perfect storm election that is not likely to be repeated.

Lost in Jersey on May 4, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Wow. Well they have Obama’s people on to spread the daily talking points. That way the 0Zombies all know what to sing in chorus.

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 10:16 AM

All you saying the minority and youts won’t show up are forgetting almost half the population is walking around with free Obama phones. a program started, I believe, under the Compassionate Conservative and expanded via tv commercials and ads under the Chi-town clown posse.
Once the txts go out to Rock The Vote and Republican voters the freebee grubbing peeps will be reminded who gives them stuff other people pay for and who knows what by then the Chi-town clown posse will have cooked up as an incentive! free Flukes?
Thanks Presstitutes!

ConcealedKerry on May 4, 2012 at 10:18 AM

One thing’s for sure: barack is creating his own little Army of Julias. One million have applied for Social security disability this year — and 5 million have since June 2009. Barack doesn’t care about people being dropped from the labor force, because they’re being added to the dependent class. He gets his lower unemployment rate — AND he gets a whole bunch of new moocher class voters. Win-win!

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 10:19 AM

If we do get a few good months of hiring that helps bring the unemployment rate down to say 7.5% nobody will remember that we got to 8% because so many people dropped out of the labor force.

Wigglesworth on May 4, 2012 at 10:19 AM

As steebo77 said, unemployment is really 11.6%:

Real unemployment rate: 11.6%. Reason for difference: organic growth of labor force which grows alongside the broader population…the widely accepted definition of the labor pool, that used by the CBO and all other government forecasting agencies, assumes a 90,000 growth in the labor force every month as it has to keep in line with the growth of the US population! The implication is simple: using a real labor force participation rate long-term average of 65.8%, the real unemployment rate in April was 11.6%, based on the 5.4 million additional workers that should be counted as part of the U-3 which then means that the real number of unemployed is not 12.5 million but 17.9 million, which in turn implies a 11.6% unemployment rate in the US.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Cookin’ the books. Again. A/P is right. Unemployment will be below 8% by election time. Coincidence? I think not.

totherightofthem on May 4, 2012 at 9:49 AM

Rush is positive it will be and I’m sure you are both right, but I don’t think this will save Oboobi. Too many people recognize smoke and mirrors now. I expect to hear a great national cry of “Bullsh!t” when it happens.

Extrafishy on May 4, 2012 at 10:29 AM

..if you read news from OTHER sources, you see them saying ‘ DEFINITELY IN RECOVERY ‘ on the economics of it all. But, even if we are adding jobs here and there, we are still.. STILL down MILLIONS OF JOBS!

TX-96 on May 4, 2012 at 10:31 AM

While I don’t believe it will be a cake walk, I do think 08 was a perfect storm election that is not likely to be repeated.

Lost in Jersey on May 4, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Still playing with the ‘nice’ handbook huh? Look even if he “loses” by 5-10% or heck 50%, EVERY paper and NEWS outlet in the country will simply “state” that HE WON AGAIN. And he’ll simply not leave.

In August/Sept they will arm the TSA, and watch the ensuing hilarity.
DHS is already armed and participating in Drug Raids for training.

orbitalair on May 4, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I know what John Lott said on TEMS about the integrity of the unemployment numbers, but I know the BLS under the direction of Hilda Solis has changed the way they calculate these numbers on multiple occasions.

Here is one as reported by USA Today in 2010. Bear in mind they had changed it at least once before this:

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2010-12-28-1Ajobless28_ST_N.htm

Citing what it calls “an unprecedented rise” in long-term unemployment, the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), beginning Saturday, will raise from two years to five years the upper limit on how long someone can be listed as having been jobless.

Then starting last year the BLS began to modify the Labor Participation Rate since keeping people listed as unemployed for five years was looking ah very inconvenient for the Emperor Zero.

So Hilda Solis arbitrarily wiped millions of workers out of existence, as Rational Thought so eloquently writes.

As the USA Today article and today’s real events show is the genuine disconnect and complete falsehood of what the BLS and the DoL report.

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 10:32 AM

Assuming Romney wins this Nov. The minute he’s inaugurated, I’m willing to bet the media will start reporting the more realistic, but much worse U-3 number.

Even more so, if the economy actually goes under a recovery with Romney and all these people that have left the workforce decide to return, one can assume that the actual unemployment numbers will skyrocket to unheard of numbers just from the influx of possible employees. Again, this number will be shouted from the roof tops by the media.

The problem with hiding reality under the rug is that eventually, the lump under the rug gets very noticeable and containment becomes an issue.

Thoughts?

Tuari on May 4, 2012 at 10:37 AM

using a real labor force participation rate long-term average of 65.8%

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Worth noting: the average labor force participation rate under George W. Bush was 66.2% as opposed to 64.6% under Obama.

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Don’t worry guys. Mitt Romney is here to save us.

Notorious GOP on May 4, 2012 at 9:07 AM

Mitt Romney knows a lot more about real-world economics than Barry Obama does.

I’ll take someone who has run a successful business over a community-organizing, race-baiting, Aff*rmative Act*on, Marxist lawyer any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

AZCoyote on May 4, 2012 at 10:37 AM

This is how I see it playing out:

We get similar numbers for the next 4 months and the unemployment rate drops to 7.8% because of the declining LFPR.

In early October we get a good report of say 250,000 jobs created combined with 500,000 dropping out of the labor force. There will be a huge headline that the economy has come roaring back and the unemployment rate has plummeted to 7.5%.

All it will take is one good report before the election and it will be hyped big time by the media.

Wigglesworth on May 4, 2012 at 10:39 AM

Wigglesworth-I think you are wrong. Many votes are already baked in the cake. The economy is absolutely horrible and on top of that obama spent us into oblivion-16 triilion in debt and he wants to add more. This is a clear sign that liberalism and socialist policies are a complete failure. most people understand that. Add in the fact that this fool ahs ticked off many catholics, jews and other groups-I see a route by Romney. I don’t think obama gets above 46.5% of the vote, which would equate to a massive electoral college blowout.

Ta111 on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

This is how I see it playing out:

We get similar numbers for the next 4 months and the unemployment rate drops to 7.8% because of the declining LFPR.

In early October we get a good report of say 250,000 jobs created combined with 500,000 dropping out of the labor force. There will be a huge headline that the economy has come roaring back and the unemployment rate has plummeted to 7.5%.

All it will take is one good report before the election and it will be hyped big time by the media.

Wigglesworth on May 4, 2012 at 10:39 AM

This is why NOW is the time for conservative pundits, elected Republicans, and the Romney camp to beat the drum that these numbers are bullshit, that millions of unemployed American workers just are not being counted. Go all in on the narrative that the Obama Labor Dept. LIES, and when the “good news” comes right before the election at least 51% of voters will believe it’s a lie and vote accordingly. These numbers should be mocked relentlessly.

I’m tellin’ ya, take a page from Salvador Allende in Chile — call ‘em “the disappeared.” It’s brilliant — it uses a leftist term against the leftists, it will resonate with Hispanic voters, and it reinforces the Orwellian thuggary of the Obama Administration. Long live los desaparecidos! Ha!

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

As an economic side note, oil is down over $3.00 today, on this employment data. Yesterday it was down $2.00. Oil has dropped over $5.00 in the past two days! That’s an incredible move to the downside, and does not suggest a growing economy. I also think we won’t be hearing anything out of Obama about eeeeeviiiiil oil speculators.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Simple fact: No amount of harping on the details of these numbers, or why they are totally phony, will make any difference. This is the way unemployment numbers have been done forever, and the main number is the only thing the average person pays attention to. As long as the unemployment number continues to go down, it will be viewed by many voters as a sign of an improving economy, regardless of how much counter-arguing we do about how the numbers are formed.

Shump on May 4, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Well mitt as his team could start by stop repeating the phrase “the economy is improving” and instead just repeat worse economy since Carter over and over.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 9:26 AM

..perhaps. But they are walking the fine line between Pollyanna and Eeyore. If they start and keep up a gloomy mantra throughout the entire campaign, they give the Bamster the opportunity of painting the GOP as the party of “NO”, “NEGATORY”, and doom and gloom.

Reagan won with his sunny disposition and message of hope. Besides, pointing to the economy and letting folks draw their own conclusions should be sufficient.

“..IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY..AND WE’RE NOT STUPID!”

The War Planner on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Simple fact: No amount of harping on the details of these numbers, or why they are totally phony, will make any difference. This is the way unemployment numbers have been done forever, and the main number is the only thing the average person pays attention to. As long as the unemployment number continues to go down, it will be viewed by many voters as a sign of an improving economy, regardless of how much counter-arguing we do about how the numbers are formed.

Shump on May 4, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Not true. We currently have the lowest labor force participation rate since 1981. These aren’t “usual” numbers. Sure, voters look at the overall unemployment number, but a smart campaign will push the participation rate decline, too. It’s an easy “fudging of the numbers” to understand. It can be mocked. Where did all those unemployed people go? Are you one of them? Is your husband? Is your wife? Maybe it’s your just-out-of-college kid. Could you please call the Obama Labor Dept. and give them your address? They can’t seem to find you. You have disappeared. YOUR unemployment does not count. Is YOUR unemployment somehow different than the unemployed they ARE counting? How so?

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Times are tough all around.

Akzed on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

As an economic side note, oil is down over $3.00 today, on this employment data. Yesterday it was down $2.00. Oil has dropped over $5.00 in the past two days! That’s an incredible move to the downside, and does not suggest a growing economy. I also think we won’t be hearing anything out of Obama about eeeeeviiiiil oil speculators.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

..amen. Demand is down. It’s a denominator driven statistic Similar (in a way) to the unemployment rate dropping because of less people in the work force.

The War Planner on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Those of us who realize that 386K new apps for UI were filed just last week and 115,000 jobs created know it cannot be 8.1% And no it has not always been computed that those drop outs are no longer counted. The drones will believe anything and if they actually show up to vote, they will cancel out our vote. If we win with Romney [!] unemployment will go up to the 12% it really is today, the day he is inaugurated.

democratsarefools on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Wow! Oil has just taken another leg down, and is now off by $4.30! That’s a two day move of nearly $7.00! Oil is now at $98.00 per/b down from $105.00 on Wednesday.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Did everyone hear about the AMAZING NEW CANCER CURE?!

They just announced it! 50% of the people who take this new miracle drug die from it thus reducing cancer rates by 50%! The only question is, why not just take cyanide and reduce cancer rates by 100%?

Sounds crazy? This is exactly how our government calculates unemployment.

mitchellvii on May 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

Wow! Oil has just taken another leg down, and is now off by $4.30! That’s a two day move of nearly $7.00! Oil is now at $98.00 per/b down from $105.00 on Wednesday.

Weight of Glory on May 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

The 88 Million effect. They aren’t buying a lot of gas.

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 11:19 AM

THE BAD NEWS FOR OBAMA:

Strangely, Obama’s only hope to have unemployment below 8% by election day is to continue having a horrible economy! How is this possible?

If the economy improves between now and election day, people will re-enter the workforce and begin looking for jobs. This in turn increases the participation rate and drives unemployment up.

Obama is perfectly positioned to fail is way to re-election!

mitchellvii on May 4, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Interesting state-level development:

PA’s declining unemployment rate prompts end to federal extended unemployment benefits. The state Department of Labor and Industry announced on Thursday the federal extended unemployment benefits for which many of Pennsylvania’s jobless have been eligible, for the most part, since 2008 are coming to an end. Pennsylvania is responsible for the first 26 weeks of benefits. The 13 additional weeks of benefits, funded by the federal government, are only available, according to congressional authorization, in states where the unemployment rate is higher than a federally-established threshold. Because the calculation of Pennsylvania’s rate is now below that threshold, which the department says is due to the commonwealth’s declining unemployment rate, the extended benefits will cease at the end of next week, on May 12. “The U.S. Department of Labor has notified Pennsylvania that the state’s declining unemployment rate is too low to authorize continued payment of Extended Benefits,” said the department in a news release. Pennsylvania’s unemployment rate, as of the end of March, was 7.5 percent. March marked the fifth month out of six during which the rate declined, with the rate during the one non-declining month holding steady from the prior month. The rate has been on the decline from its 8.3-percent 12-month high in September. The state’s unemployment rate for the month of April should be announced in about two weeks.

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 11:22 AM

If/when Romney takes office, who wants to wager what BLS numbers will look like then? If nobama loses in November, could we see a huge upswing in unemployment right before the new pres is sworn in? I think they are setting jug ears up for success and a possibly new president for failure.

JAGonzo on May 4, 2012 at 11:28 AM

Hey, we’re doing great for totally sucking at creating jobs, aren’t we? Hope and Change!

Philly on May 4, 2012 at 11:47 AM

..amen. Demand is down. It’s a denominatornumerator driven statistic Similar (in a way) to the unemployment rate dropping because of less people in the work force.

The War Planner on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

..who is this idiot? Take away his keyboard before he kills again.

The War Planner on May 4, 2012 at 11:50 AM

Hey, we’re doing great for totally sucking at creating jobs, aren’t we? Hope and Change!

Philly on May 4, 2012 at 11:47 AM

That headline image should read “Not Hiring” IMHO.

http://www.dailyjobcuts.com/

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 11:52 AM

If the economy improves between now and election day, people will re-enter the workforce and begin looking for jobs. This in turn increases the participation rate and drives unemployment up.

Obama is perfectly positioned to fail is way to re-election!

mitchellvii on May 4, 2012 at 11:22 AM

The only flaw in this excellent theory is that Hilda Solis will not report it. She will manipulate the reports however necessary to help the Won.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/why-you-shouldnt-trust-tomorrows-bls-number

Charles Biderman provides the most in-depth discussion of why we need a better press corps. The simple truth, as Charles notes, is that even the BLS doesn’t believe its own hype (in its footnotes) and while mainstream media and talking heads will quote the unemployment rate or NFP change as if it was transcribed by the hand of God, it is in fact an extremely ill-formed, very narrow survey with such huge statistical noise as to be entirely useles

dogsoldier on May 4, 2012 at 11:56 AM

This is how I see it playing out:

We get similar numbers for the next 4 months and the unemployment rate drops to 7.8% because of the declining LFPR.

In early October we get a good report of say 250,000 jobs created combined with 500,000 dropping out of the labor force. There will be a huge headline that the economy has come roaring back and the unemployment rate has plummeted to 7.5%.

All it will take is one good report before the election and it will be hyped big time by the media.

Wigglesworth on May 4, 2012 at 10:39 AM

You can fool a lot of those not working, but the key is to get those 88 million who are not in the labor force, and all the voters affected by or who know them out to vote for Romney and their local tea party candidate.

They can cook the books all they want, it won’t change that the vast majority of those who have given up work and those affected by those who aren’t working are going to vote GOP.

PastorJon on May 4, 2012 at 12:01 PM

If/when Romney takes office, who wants to wager what BLS numbers will look like then? If nobama loses in November, could we see a huge upswing in unemployment right before the new pres is sworn in? I think they are setting jug ears up for success and a possibly new president for failure.

JAGonzo on May 4, 2012 at 11:28 AM

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is part of the Department of Labor. The President appoints all senior officials at the DoL.

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 12:07 PM

Not even Obama is going to be able to tout this month’s “drop” in the unemployment number with a straight face.

I’m just not as worried that the American people are going to buy that the fractional drops in the ridiculous “unemployment” number mean that the economy is coming back to life. Even the morons of society seem to know the government figures are bullsh!t.

Americans are going to judge the economy on how things feel in their own worlds. Ask around, how many people do you know really think things are really improving? All of these people being forced to drop out of the workforce because of hopeless economic conditions are not going to be happy voters in November.

BradTank on May 4, 2012 at 12:08 PM

At 830am . when the number came out, the news reader at CNN was happily chirping that unemployment rate went down. The lack of any intelligence in those news readers is appalling.

galtani on May 4, 2012 at 12:13 PM

People need to realize that the numbers in these graphs aren’t just figures. These are our neighbors, friends, and relatives. This administration acts like it is doing whatever it can to make things worse. Regulations that throw power plants and oil refineries off line raise energy costs putting companies that are already operating on thin margins out of business in addition to the miners and plant operators themselves.

Democrats in places like Illinois and California implement policies that drive more businesses out of the state or out of business altogether.

The the sake of our communities, we have to get rid of these Democrats at all levels of government.

crosspatch on May 4, 2012 at 12:20 PM

This election will be decided on the turnout. If, (and it’s a big if), the Republican Party rallies their base to a moderate to good turnout, AND Obama loses 20-25% of the youth and black vote, (who will stay home), Romney wins big. (Indys still play into this factor).

Rovin on May 4, 2012 at 9:57 AM

I agree it will be a turnout election. I don’t think Mitt can get the base out and Obama with the OWS and Treyvon race war is doing everything to get the black and youth vote out. The gop is already playing catch up with a turnout election. Just look at the turnout for primaries record low. only the diehard republicans showed up to vote in the primaries. there is no passion there but then again the gop establishment wanted boring. Thought boring would play against Obama’s “coolness”

Mitt might win, Obama is that bad but it will not be a blowout and there will be no wave election on downticket candidates like in 2010

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 12:41 PM

Reagan won with his sunny disposition and message of hope. Besides, pointing to the economy and letting folks draw their own conclusions should be sufficient.

“..IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY..AND WE’RE NOT STUPID!”

The War Planner on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

yeah:

Recession is when your neighbor loses his job. Depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his.”

— Ronald Reagan

Saying the economy is improving when mikllions are out ofn work, millions have lost there homes, when wages haven’t gone up in years, when inflation is eating up all your buying power and when basic things like gas and food are much more of a slice of your take home pay is beyond stupi and shows that they have no idea what is going on. Reminds me of McCain saying the economy is fundemtally strong right before the bottom fell out. There is plenty out there to harp about and show Obam’s economy sucks donkey balls. there is no reason what so ever to give Obama and credit for an “improving economy” the only people that are seeing anything good in this economy is Wall street since the Dow has gone up. Main street sees a terrible economy and no signs of improvemnet. Mitt needs to hammer Obama daily on this.
Just like Mitt saying the POTUS wasn’t responsible for gas prices then backtracking saying the economy is improving just gives Obama an opening to tell voters not to change horses now that we “see the light at the end of the tunnel” Mitt’s job is to make voters not only not see the “light” but convince them what light they might be seeing is the fires of hell’s gates if they do see a light.

unseen on May 4, 2012 at 12:49 PM

Where’s bayam to spin these numbers for us?

Probably still waiting for the Krugman Talking Points…

Del Dolemonte on May 4, 2012 at 12:52 PM

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