Mourdock up 10 over Lugar, 48/38, four days before Indiana primary

posted at 10:41 am on May 4, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Indystar calls this latest poll result a “dramatic slide,” and is it ever.  Incumbent Senator Dick Lugar led the race in the last iteration of the Howey/DePauw poll by seven points.  Today, he’s trailing by ten, and Lugar has only four days to turn it around:

The Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, conducted by two prominent Republican and Democratic pollsters, shows Mourdock with a 48 percent to 38 percent lead over Lugar. …

The poll shows a dramatic slide for Lugar, who in his last election in 2006 won with more than 80 percent of the vote after Democrats considered him so unbeatable that they didn’t field a candidate against him.

Only about a month ago, a Howey/DePauw Battleground poll showed Lugar leading Mourdock 42 percent to 35 percent.

When voters who were not solid in their support for a candidate yet and were merely leaning in one direction or the other are removed, Mourdock is still leading 43 percent to 35 percent over Lugar.

Just a month ago, the Howey/DePauw survey was good enough to get analysts believing that Lugar could hold serve on Tuesday:

U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar is in the most precarious position of his political career since autumn 1974 when he unsuccessfully challenged Democratic incumbent Birch Bayh. A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll released today reveals Lugar with a 42-35% lead over Indiana Treasurer Richard Mourdock, with the two evenly splitting the vote among the 72% of primary voters identifying with the GOP. It has prompted HPI to move this race into “tossup” from “Leans Lugar.”

The poll by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democrat pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, was conducted March 26-28 of 503 likely Republican primary voters and March 26 -27 of 503 likely Indiana general election voters. It has a +/-4.5% margin of error.

The polling came after Lugar had experienced a terrible week. He took broadside headlines related to the residency issue in the week before the polling, with the Democratic Marion County Election Board denying the voting address he had used since joining the Senate in the late 70’s. The three days of polling coincided with the beginning of a statewide Club for Growth TV assault ad branding Lugar as a big tax and spender who loves earmarks.

That’s a seventeen-point turnaround for the six-term incumbent, which is dramatic indeed.  Now it looks like Lugar might make history in an entirely negative way:

Indiana’s primary will be held next Tuesday in a race where ads sponsored by a pro-Lugar PAC have recently been pulled – suggesting the intraparty coup many have suspected would befall the longtime member of the Senate will indeed come to fruition.

In the 2010 cycle, Republicans saw three-term Utah Senator Bob Bennett and two-term Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski fall in the GOP convention/primary process, while five-term Pennsylvania Senator Arlen Specter switched parties knowing full well that he would lose his primary to eventual general election winner, Pat Toomey. (Murkowski ultimately retained her seat through a write-in campaign).

But if Senator Lugar loses next Tuesday, he’ll join an exclusive club with a current membership of just one.

A Smart Politics review of U.S. Senate election data finds that if Dick Lugar loses the Indiana Republican primary election on May 8th, he will become just the second six-term U.S. Senator – and the first Republican – to fail in his renomination bid in the direct election era of the past 100 years.

Be sure to follow the link to learn the trivia answer as to who the other club member would be.

If Lugar loses by this kind of margin on Tuesday, he won’t be the only one embarrassed by the loss.  Outgoing Governor Mitch Daniels has campaigned for Lugar, especially over the last few weeks, cutting TV ads for Lugar’s campaign.  A loss would also be a rebuke to Daniels, and could hurt his standing in the GOP down the road with the grassroots and the establishment.  Gubernatorial candidate Mike Pence was smarter, refusing two months ago to endorse anyone in the Senate primary:

“I’ve known both men and respected both men for more than 20 years, and I think that when you have two good choices in a primary, you ought to let voters decide,” he said. “I consider Richard Lugar a mentor and a friend, and Richard Mourdock is someone I have admired as well.”

A Mourdock victory would be a triumph for the Tea Party, which also forced Orrin Hatch into a primary in Utah, if only barely.  That would belie the media narrative these days that the Tea Party has run out of gas.  They obviously haven’t in Indiana.

Update: Here’s a prediction from Twitter follower Schwabcycler: “Bet Lugar pulls a Specter.”  Or perhaps a Lieberman?  Hmmmmm.


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Hoosiers going for the better Dick.

Extrafishy on May 4, 2012 at 10:45 AM

If they won’t pass term limits on themselves, then conservatives will show people how it’s done.

ButterflyDragon on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

It is obvious the Tea Party is quite involved with the electorial process. Besides playing with fecal matter, will someone explain to me how the OWS has fared in this arena? Anyone?

*crickets*

Turtle317 on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

This confirms the Tea Party is dead.

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

A loss would also be a rebuke to Daniels, and could hurt his standing in the GOP down the road with the grassroots and the establishment.

Um, Daniels isn’t going to be running for anything anymore… so why would he care?

He also got his start in politics working for Luger 30+ years ago so it’s not like he’s not acting out of personal loyalty.

ninjapirate on May 4, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Maybe the old guard will wake up now. Doubt it, but we try to shake them up when we can.

Kissmygrits on May 4, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Obviously Lugar will actively support Mourdock as the Republican nominee.

/

Meat Fighter on May 4, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Thank you Palin for for leading the way and endorsing Mourdock!

Gay Conservative Out!!

Stryker83 on May 4, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Glorious! I betcha this same polling collapse happens to Obama as the election tightens up in late October.

BJ* on May 4, 2012 at 10:48 AM

Buh. Bye.

OhioCoastie on May 4, 2012 at 10:49 AM

What are the odds of a Lugarkowski write-in campaign?

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 10:49 AM

A Mourdock victory would be a triumph for the Tea Party

And for Palin…
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/04/28/Palin-KO

That would belie the media narrative these days that the Tea Party has run out of gas.

“Out of gas”…..Ed, this party is just getting started.

tencole on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Are my fellow Texans getting bombarded on HotAir with what a communist loving scum Tea Party candidate Ted Cruz is with the side ads? It is going to be my pleasure to “Choose Cruz” and not replace Kay Bailey with Kay Bailey light.

Marcus on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Hopefully this will also bode well for Cruz in TX.
Dewhurst will be another KBH.
Pass!

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:51 AM

I believe Howling Mad Murdock will make a fine Senator.

NotCoach on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Marcus on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Great minds…

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Wednesday headlines-

Indiana Puts Down Dick

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

there is a lot of out of state money coming in for Murdock. He’s had TV and Radio ads running constantly for the last couple of weeks. I hear about four for every one Lugar ad. Lately the Murdock ads have been hammering Lugar as anti-gun and anti-second amendment. Apparently, they have been effective.

tommyboy on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Lately the Murdock ads have been hammering Lugar as anti-gun and anti-second amendment. Apparently, they have been effective.

tommyboy on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

The truth is usually pretty damn effective.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 10:53 AM

No one should serve 6 terms in the Senate. It is simply impossible not to become entitled, lazy, and corrupt with that kind of tenure. Two terms and out. That’s how it should be.

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Any updates on Utah?

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

Hopefully this will also bode well for Cruz in TX.
Dewhurst will be another KBH.
Pass!

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:51 AM

How do you feel about Rick Perry endorsing Dewhurst over Cruz?

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I believe Howling Mad Murdock will make a fine Senator.

NotCoach on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

Speak of which: Dwight Schultz-who played Murdock-is a conservative who sometimes writes for the ‘Bigs’.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

This confirms the Tea Party is dead.

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

+1

Robert_Paulson on May 4, 2012 at 10:55 AM

How do you feel about Rick Perry endorsing Dewhurst over Cruz?

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

You had to ask… Prepare yourself for a gauntlet of fact-free posts.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:55 AM

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I’m disappointed. Perry’s a politician-not a god. I’m not always gonna agree with everything that he does.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Marcus on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM
annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:52 AM

with y’all, let’s hope it’s Cruz in a walk

the voter ID deal should have been settled five years ago and Dewhurst is the reason it didn’t happen

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Update: Here’s a prediction from Twitter follower Schwabcycler: “Bet Lugar pulls a Specter.” Or perhaps a Lieberman? Hmmmmm.

Or a Mur-COW-ski. In any case, glad everyone agrees that, for Lugar, it is HIS seat and he’ll probably do anything he can to either hold on to it or hand it to the democrats. And that, of course, sums up the problem with lifers like him.

Rational Thought on May 4, 2012 at 10:56 AM

You had to ask… Prepare yourself for a gauntlet of fact-free posts.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:55 AM

Get effed you little punk.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Will Mourdock make a good candidate in the general, too? IN ain’t Utah, after all.

And I don’t what impact it has on Mitch Daniels should Lugar lose. All it shows really is that endorsements mean squat the vast majority of the time.

changer1701 on May 4, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Backing political greenhorns like O’Donnell or Miller turned out to be a major embarrassment, but it looks like the Tea Party stumbled into the right strategy in regard to primarying particularly egregious RINOs. They should back established mainstream-conservative politicians and hold their feet to the fire next season if they stray.

PS: Safe money is on Lugar endorsing the Democrat after the loss.

Archivarix on May 4, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I’d love to chat w/ Meatcrap-but I’ve got to get ready for work.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Get effed you little punk.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:56 AM

Keep your cool, twerp. Keep proving me right ;)

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:58 AM

If they won’t pass term limits on themselves, then conservatives will show people how it’s done.

ButterflyDragon on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Forget term limits, we need to go back to state legislatures picking senators.

Rebar on May 4, 2012 at 10:58 AM

ButterflyDragon on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Yes. 36 years is MORE than enough time in the Senate and reason enough to vote Lugar out.

The only justification for voting Dick at this point would be if he was running against a Sheila Jackson Lee Zombie clone.

CorporatePiggy on May 4, 2012 at 10:59 AM

I’d love to chat w/ Meatcrap-but I’ve got to get ready for work.

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:58 AM

Let it out. Let the healing begin.

Still can’t explain why Perry sided with a slimeball.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Add this to Indiana becoming a right to work state and I see this as Hoosiers having the common sense to see that the rest of the Great Lakes states are in dire straits and Indiana can prosper by being like a flat Switzerland.

radjah shelduck on May 4, 2012 at 10:59 AM

We need to dump the Republicans who sent out this mailing.

Lugar’s supporters are pulling out all the stops. The young guns sent out this.
https://twitter.com/#!/zmdave/status/198229438620643328/photo/1/large

If I want scaremongering on Social Security, I’ll vote Democrat!

I sure hope the Supreme Court dumps Obamacare because the House Republicans will not repeal it. Our current crop of Republicans won’t ever cut spending.

zmdavid on May 4, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Good.

Lugar can be cleanly primaried, Mourdock’s clearly a better choice and favroed to win in the fall, and now it looks like Obama’s favorite Republican is history.

And thanks to Indiana’s sore loser laws, once he’s done, he’s done.

KingGold on May 4, 2012 at 11:00 AM

Anyone know what the rules are for either an indie bid or a write-in in Indiana?

Specter was able to do what he did in Pennsylvania because he flipped before the primary… and still lost to his Dem challenger.

Skankkowski was able to win because write-ins are legal in Alaska and she had tremendous name recognition by being part of an Alaskan political dynasty.

Lieberman was able to run as an independent in Connecticut because his organization set everything up to run that way should he lose to Lamont in the Dem primary.

I’m less sure that Luger has planned as far ahead as the other three did.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Yes. 36 years is MORE than enough time in the Senate and reason enough to vote Lugar out.

The only justification for voting Dick at this point would be if he was running against a Sheila Jackson Lee Zombie clone.

CorporatePiggy on May 4, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Even then…

Look what happened to McCain. AZ voted him back in and now we have some nutty, senile old guy that just happens to be a high ranking senator (scary).

The GOP doesn’t need to hold on to their slightly better Robert Byrd’s. Purge time.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Mourdock is for real. He’s a fully credentialed and well-spoken candidate.

I hope Lugar won’t be an ass and decide to run as an Indy (pun intended).

mankai on May 4, 2012 at 11:01 AM

PS: Safe money is on Lugar endorsing the Democrat after the loss.
Archivarix on May 4, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Nope, don’t see that happening nor do I see Lugar going the write in route. Neither of those things would play well in Hoosierland. No, if Lugar looses the prmiary he will ride off into the sunset never to be heard from again excpet for the occasional foriegn policy op-ed in the Indianapolisl Star newspaper. (ghost written naturally)

tommyboy on May 4, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Are my fellow Texans getting bombarded on HotAir with what a communist loving scum Tea Party candidate Ted Cruz is with the side ads? It is going to be my pleasure to “Choose Cruz” and not replace Kay Bailey with Kay Bailey light.

Marcus on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’ll choose Cruz as well! Cruz vs Dewhurst = Rubio vs Crist. We also need Cornyn out next time. Dewhurst endorsed Perry for President and now Perry is returning the favor. Fine, but I think Perry is too connected to the old business as usual clique and needs to be retired as a great governor before he screws up his own legacy.

cartooner on May 4, 2012 at 11:02 AM

Mourdock is for real. He’s a fully credentialed and well-spoken candidate.

I hope Lugar won’t be an ass and decide to run as an Indy (pun intended).

mankai on May 4, 2012 at 11:01 AM

Honestly don’t know if Lugar could win as an indy.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Glorious! I betcha this same polling collapse happens to Obama as the election tightens up in late October.

BJ* on May 4, 2012 at 10:48 AM

If only! From your lips to God’s ear…

bofh on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Will Mourdock make a good candidate in the general, too? IN ain’t Utah, after all.

changer1701 on May 4, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Mourdock is currently the state treasurer. He won two state-wide campaigns, one by 52-48 and re-election by 62-38.

That puts him a step up over either a sitting House member or some fly-by-night candidate.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

Forget term limits, we need to go back to state legislatures picking senators.

Rebar on May 4, 2012 at 10:58 AM

I agree.

ButterflyDragon on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

I’m not surprised. The news and momentum has been on Mourdock’s side.

As a second term State Treasurer, he has a credible resume.

And in addition to a few votes which pissed off the base, Lugar’s problem is that he’s 80. You’re not going to find a lot of people who think that we need more people in their 80s in the Senate.

Mister Mets on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

This confirms the Tea Party is dead.

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM
+1

Robert_Paulson on May 4, 2012 at 10:55 AM

…+ 57…Luger the elitist didn’t even have a home in his own state anymore.

KOOLAID2 on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Honestly don’t know if Lugar could win as an indy.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:03 AM

I don’t think he could win, but he may be determined to play spoiler against Mourdock to spite the people who voted him out.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

Look what happened to McCain. AZ voted him back in and now we have some nutty, senile old guy that just happens to be a high ranking senator (scary).

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:01 AM

If McCain’s primary opponent hadn’t been a free-spending Birther dimwit who could give Vince Offer a run for his money, McCain would have been history too.

It’s not just about identifying the RINOs that need to be replaced. It’s about picking competent conservatives who can win to replace them.

KingGold on May 4, 2012 at 11:05 AM

You’re not going to have people like Mike Pence and even Mitch Daniels tolerating Lugar going indie… and those two have their own strengths in the GOP establishment. I think if Lugar goes 3rd party, he’ll get demolished by the IN GOP.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Luger the elitist didn’t even have a home in his own state anymore.
KOOLAID2 on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

He hasn’t for over 30 years.

tommyboy on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

What exactly has Dick Lugar stood for during the last twenty years or so? I vaguely remember him on Sunday morning TV news shows sort of tut-tutting from time to time about conservatives’ “unhelpful rhetoric”, or some such; mostly he takes a Beltway conformist position on everything (speak moderately, and do nothing). The last time I remember him supporting something conservative was when he spoke up in favor of the Contras during the 1980′s.

Scriptor on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Still can’t explain why Perry sided with a slimeball.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:59 AM

May be pay back for the cover Dewhurst provided in killing the state sanctuary city legislation. Perry came out strong for it just before the last session and then went totally silent when the editorials in the big city papers claimed all police chiefs were against it (they weren’t). Dewhurst as leader of the senate got the house language replaced with boilerplate homeland security BS and it all went away.

Perry had been climbing out of his shell following the debates when he made this endorsement. I predict it will hurt them both.

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Will Mourdock make a good candidate in the general, too? IN ain’t Utah, after all.

And I don’t what impact it has on Mitch Daniels should Lugar lose. All it shows really is that endorsements mean squat the vast majority of the time.

changer1701 on May 4, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Excellent point. After all, Indiana elected Democrat Evan Bayh several times, and narrowly voted for Obama over McCain in 2008. If Mourdock won the nomination, would he put an otherwise safe seat at risk of being lost to the Democrats, in a year when we need 4 net pickups to take control of the Senate?

If Mourdock is more conservative than Lugar, is he more like a Ron Johnson (WI) or Pat Toomey (PA) who can win, or more like a Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell who can lose an otherwise winnable race?

Steve Z on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

I don’t think he could win, but he may be determined to play spoiler against Mourdock to spite the people who voted him out.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 11:04 AM

See my previous post.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:07 AM

Sarah Barracuda’s endorsement, even though she appeals to only a small segment of the Republican Party (per Anonymous Republican Party Operative Who Is In The Know).

Paul-Cincy on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Forget term limits, we need to go back to state legislatures picking senators.

Rebar on May 4, 2012 at 10:58 AM

That would be an atrocious idea. I’ll copy and paste from what I wrote elsewhere.

I can understand the renewed appeal of the ides for tea partiers. For a movement that thinks government screwed up over the last century, it makes sense to oppose a constitutional amendment passed in 1912 with the support of progressives. If the 17th Amendment were repealed, the senators would also have to pay more attention to their states, which fits the federalist leanings of the tea party.

However, when senators are elected by state legislators, the power of political insiders increases tremendously. State legislators are disproportionately likely to have been active in politics for a long time. And the new senators would have major incentives to protect the new status quo, lest they disappoint the legislatures went it comes time for reelection. Members of the House of Representatives would still be elected by the public, but they wouldn’t want to criticize the process of selecting senators, as this would reduce their chances of being appointed to the position in the future.

My home state of New York has an infamously dysfunctional state legislature, so I am viewing the situation from that lens. But I would rather have publicly elected senators, than have that decision be made by the likes of Sheldon Silver.

I have little respect for state legislators in general. And I think elections shouldn’t just be about the political party you support with a vote for a state legislator an indication that you want that party’s candidate to be your Senator, although this is a view that seems to be increasingly out of fashion with routine opinion pieces about how a vote for a candidate should be seen mostly as a vote for a political party. Other factors should matter, including the character and perceived competence of the candidate for statewide office. And I’d rather not have state legislators rewarding politicians who have done favors for them over the years.

Less people vote for state legislators than for candidates for statewide office. So giving state legislators the power removes the more casual voter from the equation. This helps the most liberal Democrats and the most conservative Republicans. Perhaps the tea party assumes that in this scenario, they’ll win. In this case, the roughly 50/50 stalemate the country’s had for the last few decades will be broken, in the conservatives’ favor.

One problem with the strategy is that it will return the days when Senate seats were literally for sale. William A. Clark bought a term as Senator from Montana, an act that helped the passage of the 17th Amendment. His legendary excuse was “I never bought a man who wasn’t for sale.” While some Republicans may like the idea of the Koch brothers being able to buy a Senate seat, what happens when it’s Warren Buffet or George Soros who presents the highest bid?

Mister Mets on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

This is the way it should be folks; this is the way term limits CAN be enforced. Both in Lugar and it should be in Hatch’s case as well, a enforced retirement and their opponents should campaign that way. Respecting the opponent, but it’s time for younger blood. (We needed to do that it two congressional races here in Texas, but no one of note has had the guts to seriously step up to do it. Hard to run against an old war hero , in one case.)

michaelo on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

six-term incumbent

Puke. Nobody should be in the Senate for that long.

strictnein on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Landslide!!!

faraway on May 4, 2012 at 11:09 AM

If McCain’s primary opponent hadn’t been a free-spending Birther dimwit who could give Vince Offer a run for his money, McCain would have been history too.

It’s not just about identifying the RINOs that need to be replaced. It’s about picking competent conservatives who can win to replace them.

KingGold on May 4, 2012 at 11:05 AM

I agree, but John McCain is a stain on the GOP. He’s a loser. He’s senile. He’s probably not going to be able to properly serve his role in full capacity. I had issues with McCain’s primary challengers, but McCain’s the infimum for AZ. I’ll stand by that it would be healthier for our country, as a whole, to have gotten him out of office the last time around.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Update: Here’s a prediction from Twitter follower Schwabcycler: “Bet Lugar pulls a Specter.” Or perhaps a Lieberman? Hmmmmm.

…or maybe a Murkowski.

Akzed on May 4, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Are my fellow Texans getting bombarded on HotAir with what a communist loving scum Tea Party candidate Ted Cruz is with the side ads? It is going to be my pleasure to “Choose Cruz” and not replace Kay Bailey with Kay Bailey light.

Marcus on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Gotta Choose Cruz!!

signed: Fellow Texan
from BU Lady Bears Country

ziggyville on May 4, 2012 at 11:10 AM

Perry had been climbing out of his shell following the debates when he made this endorsement. I predict it will hurt them both.

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

As it should. Perry was probably the most 2-faced presidential candidate out there.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:11 AM

If Lugar tried to run as an independant he would end up splitting up the Democrat vote. The anti-Obama backlash in Indiana is really unbelievable. Virually every candidate is running as a conservative Christian, even the Dems. While the Dem commercials try to distance themselves from Obama as much as possible, the Repub commercials work equally hard to tie their opponants in with Obama. Many of Murdocks commercials are calling Lugar “Obama’s favorite Senator”. Trust me, conservative Republicans are going to wipe the slate this election in Indiana. Just like in 2010.

tommyboy on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

Backing political greenhorns like O’Donnell or Miller turned out to be a major embarrassment, but it looks like the Tea Party stumbled into the right strategy in regard to primarying particularly egregious RINOs. They should back established mainstream-conservative politicians and hold their feet to the fire next season if they stray.

PS: Safe money is on Lugar endorsing the Democrat after the loss.

Archivarix on May 4, 2012 at 10:57 AM

Agreed all around :)

thebrokenrattle on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

It is obvious the Tea Party is quite involved with the electorial process. Besides playing with fecal matter, will someone explain to me how the OWS has fared in this arena? Anyone?

*crickets*

Turtle317 on May 4, 2012 at 10:46 AM

Check the polling on the buffet rule and “income inequality.” OWS is helping to shape a national dialogue of protest against the mass accumulation of wealth at the top. Their message has seeped into political discourse even as their antics have been vilified.

libfreeordie on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

A Mourdock victory would be a triumph for the Tea Party, which also forced Orrin Hatch into a primary in Utah, if only barely.

What are Orrin’s poll numbers Ed?

Dan Liljenquist is accusing Sen. Orrin Hatch of dodging debates, saying the six-term incumbent has refused to commit to a single debate leading up to the June 26 Republican Senate primary.
“I will debate him any time, anywhere,” said Liljenquist, who has called for a series of eight debates at colleges and universities around the state. The cable news network C-SPAN has offered to broadcast a matchup between the two.
“I think it’s clear he doesn’t want to debate,” Liljenquist said.

Dr Evil on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

all Palin has to do is type out a Facebook note to thwart their best laid plans.

This is funny.

faraway on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

It’s not just about identifying the RINOs that need to be replaced. It’s about picking competent conservatives who can win to replace them.

KingGold on May 4, 2012 at 11:05 AM

Ditto that!

tencole on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

If Lugar tried to run as an independant he would end up splitting up the Democrat vote. The anti-Obama backlash in Indiana is really unbelievable. Virually every candidate is running as a conservative Christian, even the Dems. While the Dem commercials try to distance themselves from Obama as much as possible, the Repub commercials work equally hard to tie their opponants in with Obama. Many of Murdocks commercials are calling Lugar “Obama’s favorite Senator”. Trust me, conservative Republicans are going to wipe the slate this election in Indiana. Just like in 2010.

tommyboy on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

After talking to a few Hoosiers, I’m hearing the same stuff.

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

Perry was probably the most 2-faced presidential candidate out there.

Not by a longshot. You ever have anything constructive to say or was the twerp right?

DanMan on May 4, 2012 at 11:14 AM

More good news on the Senate front (via Rasmussen):

Election 2012: Montana Senate
Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 53%, Tester (D) 43%

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Thanks AGAIN for the cheap, sleazy blow-out pop-up ad, Hot Gas.
is the marginal income really worth it?
~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on May 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Mister Mets on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Rebar is correct. The Senate needs to go back to being a tool of the states. The Founders knew a little sumthin’ about sumthin’.

NotCoach on May 4, 2012 at 11:16 AM

A Mourdock victory would be a triumph for the Tea Party, which also forced Orrin Hatch into a primary in Utah, if only barely.

What are Orrin’s poll numbers Ed?

I’m curious about those myself.

Hatch only got close because he gamed the system, replacing huge numbers of delegates with people sympathetic to himself, and probably would have won if he hadn’t made his stupid comment about wanting to beat up people who want him out.

Hatch’s entitled attitude may leave voters in Utah cold.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Are my fellow Texans getting bombarded on HotAir with what a communist loving scum Tea Party candidate Ted Cruz is with the side ads? It is going to be my pleasure to “Choose Cruz” and not replace Kay Bailey with Kay Bailey light.

Marcus on May 4, 2012 at 10:50 AM

I’m getting the ads, but I’m leaning Lippert, not Cruz.

Deafdog on May 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Check the polling on the buffet rule and “income inequality.” OWS is helping to shape a national dialogue of protest against the mass accumulation of wealth at the top. Their message has seeped into political discourse even as their antics have been vilified.

libfreeordie on May 4, 2012 at 11:12 AM

“Mass accumulation of wealth at the top?” Like the pie is fixed or something?

I think a more honest phrasing would have been “mass creation of wealth.”

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

More good news on the Senate front (via Rasmussen):

Election 2012: Montana Senate
Montana Senate: Rehberg (R) 53%, Tester (D) 43%

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Tester’s been dead meat for months.

He only got in last time because Burns was so damaged by the Abramoff scandal yet refused to retire.

Add in the fact that the Dems have a ton of vulnerable seats this time and they don’t have the money to prop up weak incumbents like Tester.

teke184 on May 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Hopefully this will also bode well for Cruz in TX.
Dewhurst will be another KBH.
Pass!

annoyinglittletwerp on May 4, 2012 at 10:51 AM

We got enough Lawyers in the Senate. It’s a repeat, but maybe I can influence some minds – consider Lippert.

Deafdog on May 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

“Mass accumulation of wealth at the top?” Like the pie is fixed or something?

I think a more honest phrasing would have been “mass creation of wealth.”

steebo77 on May 4, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Liberals view the world as a zero-sum game because their intellectual chops zero out pretty quickly.

NotCoach on May 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Six terms? SIX TERMS?
Lugar as well as the rest of the GOP dinosaurs in the Senate need to GO HOME.
Hatch, McConnel, and the rest of the GOP pack. They are NOT representing WE the people. Neither do the Leftist dinosaurs.
~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on May 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

If Mourdock is more conservative than Lugar, is he more like a Ron Johnson (WI) or Pat Toomey (PA) who can win, or more like a Sharron Angle or Christine O’Donnell who can lose an otherwise winnable race?

Steve Z on May 4, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Mourdock already won statewide twice, his reelection by 62% of the vote.

There’s no fair comparison to make with Angle or O’Donnell.

Uncledave on May 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

Would you please stop playing with that Dick?

Does somebody know what the legal situation in Indiana is? Do they have sore loser laws?

Valkyriepundit on May 4, 2012 at 11:21 AM

If Mourdock won the nomination, would he put an otherwise safe seat at risk of being lost to the Democrats, in a year when we need 4 net pickups to take control of the Senate?

We need four net pickups to take control of the Senate, but establishment lifers like Lugar need to be systematically exterminated from the poisoned well in D.C., too.
What do we really gain from having more Senators with an (R) next to their name if they’re not the least bit conservative and, in this case, if they happen to be BHO’s “favorite Republican”?

Right Mover on May 4, 2012 at 11:24 AM

Let’s turn out all f the old timers and then contrast the youth and energy of the GOP to that of the Dems.

Charlemagne on May 4, 2012 at 11:31 AM

Any updates on Utah?

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 10:54 AM

I haven’t seen any polls, but Hatch is advertizing up a storm. He even has the NRA shilling for him by basically claiming that he almost single handedly saved the second amendment.

If his advertizements are to be believed, Hatch is the very definition of a conservative angel.

I fear that he will most likely bamboozle his way back in. Time will tell.

Gunlock Bill on May 4, 2012 at 11:33 AM

Mister Mets on May 4, 2012 at 11:08 AM

You do make some good points and repealing the 17th Amendment, under the best assumptions, wouldn’t solve many political problems. However, you underestimate many positive aspects of Senators appointed by the state legislators. And without going into all that here, I’ll just have to disagree with you overall.

cartooner on May 4, 2012 at 11:33 AM

I can not wait to get to the polls Tuesday and pull the lever for Mourdock! Then Pence, Mourdock and IN-09 Young in November. Since I live in one of Indiana’s bluest counties, the wailing and gnashing of teeth on November 7 will be music to my ears.

rhit87 on May 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Murdock was on Hannity like 2 days ago and he talked about Lugar is for a few keys issues that Obama is with and that Obama called him his favorite Republican.

Hannity made a big difference on this election.

jeffn21 on May 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Historic slide???? It’s called the PALIN EFFECT!!!!

Lugar was leasding until Palin openly supported Mourdock. Not bad for someone with no power. Right establishment GOP?

Romney better reach out to the de facto leader of the TP and get her support. She will not be marginalized. She has too many supporters.,

RWRFAN on May 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

We got enough Lawyers in the Senate. It’s a repeat, but maybe I can influence some minds – consider Lippert.

Deafdog on May 4, 2012 at 11:20 AM

Lippert is dead in the water. Only Cruz can force Dewhurst into a runoff and have a chance to beat him.

cartooner on May 4, 2012 at 11:37 AM

I can not wait to get to the polls Tuesday and pull the lever for Mourdock! Then Pence, Mourdock and IN-09 Young in November. Since I live in one of Indiana’s bluest counties, the wailing and gnashing of teeth on November 7 will be music to my ears.

rhit87 on May 4, 2012 at 11:35 AM

Todd Young? I think I know which blue county you live in… hehehe

MeatHeadinCA on May 4, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Update: Here’s a prediction from Twitter follower Schwabcycler: “Bet Lugar pulls a Specter.” Or perhaps a Lieberman? Hmmmmm.

…or maybe a Murkowski.

Akzed on May 4, 2012 at 11:09 AM

Ed & Akzed,
We have a “sore loser” law here in Indiana. If he loses on Tuesday, he’s done.

Chris of Rights on May 4, 2012 at 11:43 AM

Thanks AGAIN for the cheap, sleazy blow-out pop-up ad, Hot Gas.
is the marginal income really worth it?
~(Ä)~

Karl Magnus on May 4, 2012 at 11:15 AM

Dang! I wish I knew what you were referring to. Unfortunately I’m using Firefox with an add blocker plug in so I never see the ads.

Oldnuke on May 4, 2012 at 11:47 AM

If Lugar tried to run as an independent he would end up splitting up the Democrat vote. The anti-Obama backlash in Indiana is really unbelievable. Virually every candidate is running as a conservative Christian, even the Dems. While the Dem commercials try to distance themselves from Obama as much as possible, the Repub commercials work equally hard to tie their opponants in with Obama. Many of Murdocks commercials are calling Lugar “Obama’s favorite Senator”. Trust me, conservative Republicans are going to wipe the slate this election in Indiana. Just like in 2010.

There is no question that Lugar needs to go, for all the reasons mentioned above. No one in my circle of acquaintances is going to vote for him. That being said, Lugar is above all else a gentleman and considers himself to be a statesman. I don’t think he will support Mourdock but I would be very surprised if he pulled a Murkowski. I predict that Lugar will be gracious in defeat and quietly fade into the background, not wanting his legacy to be that of a sore loser.

I keep talk radio playing during the day and have not heard one Lugar commercial since the beginning of the week. I think they have pulled the plug on him. The Mitch Daniels commercial for Lugar that is still running on TV a little is interesting for what it does not say. Daniels does not mention any of Lugar’s past record, but says he supports Lugar for what he will accomplish in the future. Pretty lukewarm support at best.

TerriHaute on May 4, 2012 at 11:49 AM

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