Romney catches Obama in Quinnipiac swing-state polls

posted at 10:01 am on May 3, 2012 by Ed Morrissey

Ah, it’s good to be in full general-campaign mode, isn’t it?  Instead of having to play three-dimensional chess with polling numbers, with the head-to-head figures having to be calculated through the prism of a contested primary on one side, we’re now entering into the clarity phase of polling.  Mitt Romney has just begun to unite Republicans behind him, while Barack Obama has had an uncontested primary season, so the advantage still goes to Obama in polling — and that’s what has to be worrying Team Obama with the Quinnipiac polls from three swing states:

Riding the voter perception that he is as good as or better than President Barack Obama at fixing the economy, Republican challenger Mitt Romney catches up with the president in Florida and Ohio, two critical swing states, while the president opens an 8-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a March 28 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing President Obama ahead of Gov. Romney 49 – 42 percent in Florida, 47 – 41 percent in Ohio and 45 – 42 percent in Pennsylvania. …

Matching Obama against Romney in each of these key states – no one has won the White House since 1960 without carrying at least two of them – shows:

  •  Florida: Romney with 44 percent to Obama’s 43 percent, too close to call;
  •  Ohio: Obama with 44 percent to Romney’s 42 percent, too close to call;
  •  Pennsylvania: Obama tops Romney 47 – 39 percent.

What is the one constant in each of these polls?  Obama the incumbent can’t get to 50% in any of these states.  In Florida and Ohio, Obama can’t even get to 45%.  Pennsylvania has a double-digit Democratic advantage in party registration and Obama can’t get to a majority.  Those are not re-elect numbers in any of these three states.

Losing Florida and Ohio would be a big problem for Obama.  Losing Pennsylvania would be a disaster.  Obama is still a long way from losing the state, but it’s exactly the kind of blue-collar, Rust Belt, working-class Catholic state that he will have problems holding.  Democrats who lose Pennsylvania in presidential elections are called authors by January, and the Democrats know this well.  They will have to shift considerable amounts of time and money to protect Obama in the Keystone State that could have gone elsewhere … like, say, Florida and Ohio, which are critical states for Republicans.  And if Obama is having these kinds of problems in Pennsylvania, he’ll lose Indiana and could possibly lose Wisconsin and Virginia as well.

National Journal notes that the rise in Romney’s strength comes from a perception of economic stagnation that’s not likely to change in the next few months:

Romney’s rise in two of the three critical states is fueled by voters’ perceptions of the economy. Voters in Florida and Ohio think the former Massachusetts governor would do a better job with the economy, while Pennsylvania voters are split evenly on the question. And only a slight majority of voters in each state thinks the economy is beginning to recover.

The demographic composition is another problem.  The D/R/I in Florida is 31/28/37, in Ohio 34/26/34, and in Pennsylvania 36/29/30.  Only Pennsylvania’s looks remotely predictive.  The CNN exit polls in 2008 — a banner year for Obama — put Florida at 37/34/29, Ohio at 39/31/30, and Pennsylvania at 44/37/18.  In 2010, Florida was even-up at 36/36/28, while Ohio was 36/37/28 and Pennsylvania at 40/37/23.  Republicans are consistently underweighted in these Q-polls.  Obama is probably in even more trouble than the numbers above indicate.


Related Posts:

Breaking on Hot Air

Blowback

Note from Hot Air management: This section is for comments from Hot Air's community of registered readers. Please don't assume that Hot Air management agrees with or otherwise endorses any particular comment just because we let it stand. A reminder: Anyone who fails to comply with our terms of use may lose their posting privilege.

Trackbacks/Pings

Trackback URL

Comments

Comment pages: 1 2

angryed:

of course HotGas would be touting these “polls” by Quinnipiac! They’re, like, totally worse than Fox News and Scott Rasmussen!

tee hee!

LOL!

ROTFLMAO!

steebo77 on May 3, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Romney will take two of the three. That’s my prediction, based on nothing but gut.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:04 AM

and this is before most of the electorate even starts paying attention… bottom line points to a very weak incumbent despite the contortionist efforts of his enablers.

gatorboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:04 AM

Does this mean AP doesn’t have to get drunk today?

Mark1971 on May 3, 2012 at 10:07 AM

” . . . while Pennsylvania voters are split evenly on the question.”

This still boggles my mind. What part of $16,000,000,000,000 don’t they get?

RobertMN on May 3, 2012 at 10:08 AM

Ed has happy polls, Allah will be here this evening with all-is-lost ones.

Can anybody REALLY care what the swing states polls say until after the debates? My hunch is it being back-and-forth with a candidate the Republicans “settled on” isn’t good for Glory Boy in the White House.

Marcus on May 3, 2012 at 10:09 AM

As an investor, a critical game to be playing right now is to figure out at what point the market decides which guy will win. A lot of money will be made and lost. A critical break-point is coming.

Should the market decide Romney will win, all the pent-up money will start coming out of hiding. The markets will boom. Gold will fall fast. Lame-duck 0bama will insist that his policies were working, when, in actuality, it will be the prospect of his leaving that gooses the markets.

Conversely, should Romney flounder, I think the market will begin to crater at the pre-election moment of realization. Gold will soar. 0bama will blame it on Bush.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:10 AM

None of this really counts until SCOTUS weighs in at end of June.
Reactions from Administration and Congress will get things rolling then.

Jabberwock on May 3, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Where’s Allah’s, “Dude, I’m scared” post?

rhombus on May 3, 2012 at 10:12 AM

A critical break-point is coming.

Should the market decide Romney will win, all the pent-up money will start coming out of hiding. The markets will boom. Gold will fall fast. Lame-duck 0bama will insist that his policies were working, when, in actuality, it will be the prospect of his leaving that gooses the markets.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:10 AM

That has been my fear for a while.

cozmo on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

National Journal notes that the rise in Romney’s strength comes from a perception of economic stagnation that’s not likely to change in the next few months:

My prediction?

You will see much manipulation by Obama and his Administration to start fudging the numbers in ..3…2…1,

skatz51 on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I love the RomneyAir. I really do.

When polls show Romney losing, it’s too early for polls, polls are biased, polls are run by Democrats.

When polls show Romney winning, polls are a beautiful thing.

You dudes crack me up.

angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

” . . . while Pennsylvania voters are split evenly on the question.”

This still boggles my mind. What part of $16,000,000,000,000 don’t they get?

RobertMN on May 3, 2012 at 10:08 AM

I am from PA and the once proud working state is not that anymore. Calling PA a blue collar rustbelt work-state is about as far from the truth as you can get.

PA is now a total dependency state, everyone I know from my hometown is all about voting for the guy who will give them the most government aid/money. There is no work ethic and no pride left in PA, the whole state lives for handouts.

All those who want work left like I did, is saddens me but we just need to write PA off, those left have no pride and live for the next piece of government cheese.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I want to know when we poll the pollsters. That’ll really tell us something!

trigon on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

That also includes the MSM

skatz51 on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Obama is probably in even more trouble than the numbers above indicate.

Please caveat every poll with this…in between your obligatory GULP!!!

winston on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Ah, it’s good to be in full general-campaign mode, isn’t it? Instead of having to play three-dimensional chess with polling numbers, with the head-to-head figures having to be calculated through the prism of a contested primary on one side, we’re now entering into the clarity phase of polling.

But Romney doesn’t have 1144 delegates yet!!!
//Self-deluded ABR’s

Bitter Clinger on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

And if Obama is having these kinds of problems in Pennsylvania, he’ll lose Indiana and could possibly lose Wisconsin and Virginia as well.

Indiana is a goner. Obama won that by a razor thin margin last time, and that ain’t happening again in 2012. Same with North Carolina. If he’s struggling in Pennsylvania, it means Ohio(which is a far redder Rust Belt state) is likely gone along with Virginia which is traditionally Republican in Presidential elections.

Assuming Romney also takes Florida, that means he only needs to pick off an Iowa or Nevada or New Hampshire and he wins.

Doughboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Romney will take two of the three. That’s my prediction, based on nothing but gut.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:04 AM

I think you might be right.

So hey, cane, I am on my way out the door but it looks like the Saints dodged a bullet yesterday, eh? Looks like they only had a couple of bad apples in the basket.

I’m sure Rovin still wants to put a bounty on the others. /

Del Dolemonte on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Does this mean AP doesn’t have to get drunk today?

Mark1971 on May 3, 2012 at 10:07 AM

Oh please, getting drunk for AP isn’t a bug… It’s a job perk…

SWalker on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

Still think Obama wins Ohio and Virginia but Romney takes Florida.

Glad to see that the PA miracle has dissolved early. Better to not waste money there or WI, another state where Obama has a huge lead (according to the new poll out yesterday).

Focus like a laser on Ohio, Virginia and Florida.

gumbyandpokey on May 3, 2012 at 10:15 AM

Mr thin skin with the Strawman strike in short order

cmsinaz on May 3, 2012 at 10:16 AM

You dudes crack me up.
angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

What does this poll mean to you?

Chuck Schick on May 3, 2012 at 10:16 AM

Take away the Bradley effect and media sycophants and it is a Romney landslide…midterm redux coming up folks in 6 mos…

hillsoftx on May 3, 2012 at 10:17 AM

I love the RomneyAir. I really do.

When polls show Romney losing, it’s too early for polls, polls are biased, polls are run by Democrats.

When polls show Romney winning, polls are a beautiful thing.

You dudes crack me up.

angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

I’ve said repeatedly that the key to these polls is not so much the timing(although they will be far more accurate in the late summer/early fall when people start paying attention). It’s the sample data. That’s why a lot of those network and newspaper polls are a load of BS. There’s no way the electorate will have Dems outnumbering Republicans by double digits. That didn’t even happen in 2008.

And I think it’s safe to dismiss Gallup at this point. When Romney is up 5 one week, then down 7 the next week, and then back up 1 the week after that, something ain’t right with their sample.

Doughboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:17 AM

Read somewhere that Obama has a 4 pt lead in North Carolina?

Anyone else hear about that poll? If Romney is losing there, he’s going to get slaughtered overall.

gumbyandpokey on May 3, 2012 at 10:18 AM

Obama the incumbent can’t get to 50% in any of these states.

That’s what we heard consistently about Harry Reid, too, in 2010 — and he won reelection by a comfortable margin (I think it was something like 52-47). The gov and senate victories in PA in 2010 were by very narrow margins in a great GOP year, so I am very skeptical about any prospects to take PA this time.

Or maybe I’ve just been infected with AP’s Eeyore disease.

jwolf on May 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM

You dudes crack me up.
angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

What does this poll mean to you?

Chuck Schick on May 3, 2012 at 10:16 AM

You don’t understand yet? Only those polls showing Romney loosing are valid. Those are the only valid polls in angryed’s world. All others are to ridiculed and dismissed as if we are ignorant school-children trying to understand Falkner and angryed is the enlightened professor.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Ed raises hopes by day, only to have Allah crush them by night :)

changer1701 on May 3, 2012 at 10:22 AM

OT-

So hey, cane, I am on my way out the door but it looks like the Saints dodged a bullet yesterday, eh? Looks like they only had a couple of bad apples in the basket.

I’m sure Rovin still wants to put a bounty on the others. /

Del Dolemonte on May 3, 2012 at 10:14 AM

I hate to lose Vilma.
I still think the Saints are being scapegoated. Look at all the hits and compare them to other teams, and you don’t see any statistical anomaly. Other teams were doing it, as well. It would be one thing if you saw a bunch of hits that blatantly attempted to injure the other players. One hit that comes to mind was the helmet-to-helmet hit against Pierre Thomas by the 49ers that took him out of the last game and ended the Saints’ season. But if the NFL wants to lay down the law, why penalize the fans and screw up the entire season by upsetting the conference balance and by cutting the legs out from under a team.

Had the suspensions been any harsher, I would have been in favor of the Saints going on strike and refusing to play the season. Let Goodell choke on that. We are under no obligation to put on a farce in the Superdome.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:22 AM

All those who want work left like I did, is saddens me but we just need to write PA off, those left have no pride and live for the next piece of government cheese.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

This depends on where you live in PA. The state’s elections are decided in the “collar counties” around Philadelphia, not in the welfare precincts of Philly, Pittsburgh, and Scranton. Romney is the best candidate to appeal to suburbanites who feel like Obama is attacking them every time he opens his mouth. Turnout in these areas will be huge.

PA also has a new voter-ID law which will help cut down on the dead and moved-away people voting in Philly.

rockmom on May 3, 2012 at 10:23 AM

Should the market decide Romney will win, all the pent-up money will start coming out of hiding. The markets will boom. Gold will fall fast. Lame-duck 0bama will insist that his policies were working, when, in actuality, it will be the prospect of his leaving that gooses the markets.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:10 AM

That has been my fear for a while.

cozmo on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

Most investors aren’t thinking this far ahead. The election effect is going to seriously effect portfolios, either way it goes, especially precious metals. If Romney looks like he’s going to win, gold investor are going to get pantsed.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

That’s what we heard consistently about Harry Reid, too, in 2010 — and he won reelection by a comfortable margin (I think it was something like 52-47). The gov and senate victories in PA in 2010 were by very narrow margins in a great GOP year, so I am very skeptical about any prospects to take PA this time.

Or maybe I’ve just been infected with AP’s Eeyore disease.

jwolf on May 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM

I’ve often felt that Pennsylvania was just a giant c-cktease when it came to the GOP. But it’s worth noting that Toomey did win his Senate race in 2010(albeit barely), so we shouldn’t completely write off the state. If Romney consistently polls within a few points of Obama, it’s worth spending at least some time and money there.

Read somewhere that Obama has a 4 pt lead in North Carolina?

Anyone else hear about that poll? If Romney is losing there, he’s going to get slaughtered overall.

gumbyandpokey on May 3, 2012 at 10:18 AM

I think that poll badly oversampled the Dems though. So give it about as much credence as you would a CNN or CBS poll.

Doughboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

This depends on where you live in PA. The state’s elections are decided in the “collar counties” around Philadelphia, not in the welfare precincts of Philly, Pittsburgh, and Scranton. Romney is the best candidate to appeal to suburbanites who feel like Obama is attacking them every time he opens his mouth. Turnout in these areas will be huge.

PA also has a new voter-ID law which will help cut down on the dead and moved-away people voting in Philly.

rockmom on May 3, 2012 at 10:23 AM

I am talking about “collar counties” like Cambria and Bedford. The whole bottom west corner has become a massive dependency state, it is all about soc sec and welfare.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Ed:

Does the polling demographic composition indicate how many are dog owners???…

PatriotRider on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

I love how Obama winning 2 out of 3 is bad news for Obama. Newsflash – Romney can’t even get to 45 in any of them. Romney is going to crushed. The DNC machine hasn’t even started the smears in earnest yet.

inthemiddle on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

That’s what we heard consistently about Harry Reid, too, in 2010 — and he won reelection by a comfortable margin (I think it was something like 52-47). The gov and senate victories in PA in 2010 were by very narrow margins in a great GOP year, so I am very skeptical about any prospects to take PA this time.

Or maybe I’ve just been infected with AP’s Eeyore disease.

jwolf on May 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Yeah we learned from our mistake. Don’t nominate a Sharron Angle.

GOPRanknFile on May 3, 2012 at 10:27 AM

Tom Corbett won his race for Governor pretty handily in 2010. Toomey’s race was closer because he was perceived as more conservative, and Democrats pounded him on his Wall Street background. Still, Toomey carried moderate Bucks and Delaware Counties, which went for Obama in 2008. If these counties flip for Romney, he has a very good chance of winning the state.

rockmom on May 3, 2012 at 10:28 AM

The current trend is Romney’s new best friend…

mjbrooks3 on May 3, 2012 at 10:28 AM

When polls that clearly over-sample Dems show Obama getting less than 50% he is in big trouble-we’re talking blow-out like Reagan-Carter. The key will be in October. When polls are weighted correctly-if obama is still below 50%, game over.

Ta111 on May 3, 2012 at 10:28 AM

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:10 AM

Yep. The best economic stimulus for the country is the perception that Mitt will win. As referenced above, the most meaningful poll number is whether Scooter remains below 50%.

a capella on May 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

am talking about “collar counties” like Cambria and Bedford. The whole bottom west corner has become a massive dependency state, it is all about soc sec and welfare.

Skwor on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Isn’t that area starting to benefit from the drilling in the Marcellus Shale though? I think Romney can score in that part of the state by reminding people that 4 more years of Obama and Lisa Jackson at EPA means all of that work and all those jobs will be shut down.

rockmom on May 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

The election effect is going to seriously effect portfolios, either way it goes, especially precious metals. If Romney looks like he’s going to win, gold investor are going to get pantsed.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:24 AM

If Romney stumbles badly, go all in on gold and silver. The certain knowledge that 0bama will continue his destruction of the dollar will send them through the roof. The devaluation of the dollar will then spike oil prices, starting a cycle that I believe will result in a MAJOR economic crash in 2013-14.

If Romney looks like he’s got it in the bag, the scenario will be startlingly different. The economy hinges on the election, in a huge way.

Investors had better pay close attention and sniff the air regularly as summer passes.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

Honestly, I don’t know why it takes an attack on religious freedom to turn Catholics against Obama. He stood up in the Illinois Senate and argued in favor of allowing fetuses who survived abortion to be left to die. How can any Catholic claim respect for life and at the same time support someone so clearly disrespectful of it?

Dee2008 on May 3, 2012 at 10:30 AM

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:29 AM

This.

totherightofthem on May 3, 2012 at 10:31 AM

The under sampling of GOP has been fairly consistent this season. If you look at 2004 or 2010, you find equal numbers of GOP and dems. I suspect that the 2012 turn out will be closer to that than the 2008 dem blow out year that the polls seem to assume.

On the other hand, anything that keeps the dems thinking this is in the bag isn’t a bad thing. At least until they lose in November and then start crying about how the election must have been stolen. After all, no one they know voted for Romney.

yetanotherjohn on May 3, 2012 at 10:32 AM

I love how Obama winning 2 out of 3 is bad news for Obama. Newsflash – Romney can’t even get to 45 in any of them. Romney is going to crushed. The DNC machine hasn’t even started the smears in earnest yet.
inthemiddle on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

The lovely people behind Hope and Change.

Chuck Schick on May 3, 2012 at 10:32 AM

That’s what we heard consistently about Harry Reid, too, in 2010 — and he won reelection by a comfortable margin (I think it was something like 52-47). The gov and senate victories in PA in 2010 were by very narrow margins in a great GOP year, so I am very skeptical about any prospects to take PA this time.

Or maybe I’ve just been infected with AP’s Eeyore disease.

jwolf on May 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM

Romney isn’t Angle.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I think all the anti-Romney sentiment will rapidly dissipate. This is a binary election. It’s either thumbs-up or thumbs-down on the republic. So while the polls are full of it, I believe in this case we are seeing an authentic trend that, barring a massive misstep by Romney, which is unlikely, will persist.

paul1149 on May 3, 2012 at 10:33 AM

I love how Obama winning 2 out of 3 is bad news for Obama. Newsflash – Romney can’t even get to 45 in any of them. Romney is going to crushed. The DNC machine hasn’t even started the smears in earnest yet.

inthemiddle on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

Romney isn’t the incumbent. If the incumbent gets less than 50% from likely voters, it means the majority are voting on incumbent track record and prefer someone else.

a capella on May 3, 2012 at 10:34 AM

This still boggles my mind. What part of $16,000,000,000,000 don’t they get?

RobertMN on May 3, 2012 at 10:08 AM

People can not comprehend numbers that large.

They wrongly think that if we can up debt from 9T to 16T we can up it to 40T or something. We can we just have hyper inflation if we do and a horrible economy. But that is where we are headed.

If Romney sticks with Ryan that would be a bit of a fix but Social Security also will have to be tackled. Means testing, upping the age and admitting it is welfare would be a great start.

Steveangell on May 3, 2012 at 10:36 AM

Here’s one way to get people to comprehend how 0bama is bankrupting the USA:

Point out to them that the Afghan and Iraq wars have cost $1.5-trillion, COMBINED!!!

Wrap your head around that for a minute.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:37 AM

Yawn! another poll

gerrym51 on May 3, 2012 at 10:38 AM

This still boggles my mind. What part of $16,000,000,000,000 don’t they get?

RobertMN on May 3, 2012 at 10:08 AM

People can not comprehend numbers that large.

Steveangell on May 3, 2012 at 10:36 AM

This will help.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:40 AM

This will help.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:40 AM

That is a fantastic link! I’m going to e-mail it to everyone I know.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:42 AM

This will help.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:40 AM

That is a fantastic link! I’m going to e-mail it to everyone I know.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:42 AM

Perspective on the total debt is here.

It’s mind-blowing, and it helps normal people get a sense of just how effed we are.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:44 AM

You dudes crack me up.

angryed on May 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

…you’ve been cracked…but you of course, don’t know that!

KOOLAID2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:44 AM

But, but why did we nominate Mittens.

Waaaaaah.

Electibility baby.

sheikh of thornton on May 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

And these are numbers with a compliant MSM talking up Dear Liar. Just wait until after August when Mittens’ campaign runs hard hitting ads.

rbj on May 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Perspective on the total debt is here.

It’s mind-blowing, and it helps normal people get a sense of just how effed we are.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:44 AM

Where is 0bama’s plan to reduce this mountain of debt?

If the media were doing their jobs, that would be the NUMBER-ONE campaign question!

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

OT:

Police shut down Constitution rally in Ann Arbor

fossten on May 3, 2012 at 10:42 AM

…local media hasn’t said anything…BUT hold a pot bash and see!…fredom of speech and expression for me…but not thee!

KOOLAID2 on May 3, 2012 at 10:49 AM

187 days until the presidential election… I hope Bambi remembered to pack his bags.

I hope the voting public puts a footprint on his behind as he goes out the White House door.

Turtle317 on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Where is 0bama’s plan to reduce this mountain of debt?

If the media were doing their jobs, that would be the NUMBER-ONE campaign question!

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:47 AM

Remember. Obama promised to halve the deficit by the end of his first term. Why won’t anyone outside of the blogs point that out?

And if the media were doing their jobs, Obama would never have been elected.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Remember. Obama promised to halve the deficit by the end of his first term. Why won’t anyone outside of the blogs point that out?

And if the media were doing their jobs, Obama would never have been elected.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:50 AM

Romney has to be relentless on the economy, and point out the lunacy of 0bama’s using the Buffett Rule as his deficit-fighting strategy.

0bama has no plan, and no defense. Romney has the tools to cut his nuts off, to be a bit crude. I expect to hear 0bama singing soprano, if Romney has an ounce of fight in him.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:53 AM

0bama has no plan, and no defense. Romney has the tools to cut his nuts off, to be a bit crude. I expect to hear 0bama singing soprano, if Romney has an ounce of fight in him.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:53 AM

I thought it was Jesse Jackson who wanted to do that… Oh well. My mistake.

I’m surprised to see Romney fight this hard, this early. I’m hoping he doesn’t burn all his ammo here, but continues to ramp up his attacks on the economy and the economic policies of the Obama Administration.

All the dirty slime ads in the world won’t bring down the price of a gallon of milk or a gallon of gas. If Romney and his team maintain message discipline, they have a shot. Don’t forget that unseating an incumbent is incredibly difficult, and that Obama’s personality favorability numbers are still very high. That likability had a large part to play in the re-election of Bush 43, and can have the same effect here.

Romney has to demonstrate an ability to improve on the status quo – which I believe he IS demonstrating, and WILL achieve. He needs to make that case to more voters than just me.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

I don’t know if I’d say R is under-sampled. The differences between D & R is roughly the same from ’08. It looks more like they’re shifting the Dem ’08 advantage to Indie voters.

budfox on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Don’t forget that unseating an incumbent is incredibly difficult, and that Obama’s personality favorability numbers are still very high. That likability had a large part to play in the re-election of Bush 43, and can have the same effect here.

Romney has to demonstrate an ability to improve on the status quo – which I believe he IS demonstrating, and WILL achieve. He needs to make that case to more voters than just me.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

The art of kung fu involves using your opponent’s momentum against him. 0bama is unseating himself. Romney just needs a little pull in the right direction, and 0bama will go tumbling, head over heels, into the Potomac.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Teh problem is that Romney has to poll ahead by the margin of ACORN in the following states;

VA
NC
FL
OH

He has no margin o’ error.

Intrade still at 60% re-election chance for O.

Dude, I’m scared.

And, are we going to tea party our way out of a seat in Indiana? Really?

johnboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

That likability had a large part to play in the re-election of Bush 43, and can have the same effect here.

Romney has to demonstrate an ability to improve on the status quo – which I believe he IS demonstrating, and WILL achieve. He needs to make that case to more voters than just me.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 10:57 AM

A lot of Bush’s re-election had more to do with fear of changing horses amid two wars, and a lack of trust in Kerry. Now that Barry has ended one war, and just announced surrender in the other, and Romney appears quite competent, and LOOKS like a president (got to use their “looks-ism” against them), I’m not so sure that 0bama’s likeability will be as big a factor.

A good-looking bus driver can still put it in the ditch, and make people afraid to re-board the bus.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:02 AM

And, are we going to tea party our way out of a seat in Indiana? Really?

johnboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

No way Mourdock loses the general, so sniff some smelling salts and sit down.

steebo77 on May 3, 2012 at 11:03 AM

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:02 AM

All good points, and I agree that Obama is unseating himself. I’m not sure I can quantify how many percentage points the media will add, nor can I quantify the ACORN margin, but I know both exist.

I’m glad to see the Romney camp isn’t treating like it’s a walk the way Alec Baldwin seems to think. I’m also glad to see they aren’t falling on their swords the way McCain did.

This is going to be a dog fight, and our dog is one Obama is most likely NOT going to get to have for dinner.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

This is going to be a dog fight, and our dog is one Obama is most likely NOT going to get to have for dinner.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Yes, we have to take heart. For all his flaws, Romney is an immensely more articulate, attractive and competent candidate than McCain. Given that, and the economy, even with the ACORN effect, I think the election’s his to lose.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:08 AM

This is going to be a dog fight, and our dog is one Obama is most likely NOT going to get to have for dinner.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Heh. You said dog.

johnboy on May 3, 2012 at 11:08 AM

Heh. You said dog.

johnboy on May 3, 2012 at 11:08 AM

See what I did there? :-D

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:10 AM

One thing really going to Romney is that he never served in Congress. Which means that he didn’t have a chance to get sucked in by the corruption. Still waiting for Rommey’s skeletons to come out, but at least he wasn’t censured like McCain was.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM

at least he wasn’t censured like McCain was.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:16 AM

Well… reprimanded. I forget the exact facts – but McCain’s reputation was sullied with the Keating Five, and that provided a toehold for attacks.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 11:17 AM

Intrade still at 60% re-election chance for O.

Dude, I’m scared.

Lol intrade picked 3 different candidates to win on the day of the AL and MS primaries…and only settled on Santorum after some of the networks had already called the races for him. You shouldn’t take intrade very seriously. If it wasn’t accurate on the day of, why would you expect it to be accurate several months from the election?

And, are we going to tea party our way out of a seat in Indiana? Really?

johnboy on May 3, 2012 at 10:59 AM

Mourdock won’t lose in the general…especially not with Romney and Pence also on the ticket.

GOPRanknFile on May 3, 2012 at 11:18 AM

There must be something wrong! Alec Baldwin said it was over and Obumma has it made! These polls must be rigged. Alec coudn’t be wrong.

tomshup on May 3, 2012 at 11:22 AM

Romney is not yet the nominee. These polls are meaningless.

woodNfish on May 3, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Romney is not yet the nominee. These polls are meaningless.

woodNfish on May 3, 2012 at 11:30 AM

Yes. Ron Paul or Newt or Palin are going to be swept in at the convention.

pffft.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:35 AM

I’m glad to see the Romney camp isn’t treating like it’s a walk the way Alec Baldwin seems to think. I

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Baldwin isn’t the only lefty who thinks its a walk. The “reality-based community” lives in a propaganda bubble. They’re more concerned about stuff like Fox News than the election itself and that’s very good for us.

Go RBNY on May 3, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I remember seeing Al Sharpton and a bunch of other race hustlers staging a publicity stunt by attending the Republican National Convention. I don’t remember if it was in 1992 or 1996. I’m guessing that it was in 1996 when Clinton was running for re-election. His message was that the Democrats shouldn’t take the Black vote for granted. If this was in 1996, then he was sending a message to Clinton that he wasn’t paying the grievance mongers the sufficient amount of patronage.

If Obama was a White Democrat, and the economy was affecting the Black population as bad as it is now, Sharpton would be on the war path. But because Obama is Black, there’s a big Black wall of silence. Ditto for the Baby Boomer Leftists who have been waiting 40 years to get a fellow traveler into the White House.

These are the only reasons why Obama’s approval rating is as high as it is. The late night talk show comedians went after Clinton plenty. They won’t lay a glove on Obama. He’s the one they’ve been waiting for since their days of having a beer in the campus Rathskeller with their Left wing professors, and discussing how America is responsible for all the world’s ills.

The Independents will decide this election, like they decide every other election. And most of them have woken up.

ardenenoch on May 3, 2012 at 11:38 AM

I’m glad to see the Romney camp isn’t treating like it’s a walk the way Alec Baldwin seems to think. I

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:06 AM

Baldwin isn’t the only lefty who thinks its a walk. The “reality-based community” lives in a propaganda bubble. They’re more concerned about stuff like Fox News than the election itself and that’s very good for us.

Go RBNY on May 3, 2012 at 11:38 AM

Whistling past the graveyard, hubris, arrogance.

I don’t care what you call it, but I honestly wonder if Obama has even considered the possibility that he may be defeated.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 11:40 AM

Since we’re in full campaign mode, I’d like to see the Obama “smart” myth fully destroyed. If Romney releases his college, law school and business school transcripts whenever he releases his tax returns that’ll both dilute the coverage his returns get and also refocus public attention on Obama’s carefully hidden transcripts. Believe it or not, some people (particularly lefties) really care about that sort of crap and revealing Obama for the lazy sod he so obviously was will help underline the already strong narrative that he still is lazy as hell.

MTF on May 3, 2012 at 11:42 AM

I’d be more interested in seeing Obama’s SATs and LSATs released to the world, having little doubt that all his transcripts might reveal is that he was the beneficiary of grade inflation throughout his academic career.

Drained Brain on May 3, 2012 at 11:51 AM

The French election on May 6th may have a big effect on Obama’s hopes for November. If Sarkozy goes, as expected, the Euro Zone will be in big trouble, and will be another black mark against big government champions like Obama. That, along with a possible Isreali attack against Iran in mid- to late Summer, could really hurt the economy, dipping into recession again. It won’t be pretty for Obama’s chances.

No way is Virginia going back to blue!

Bob in VA on May 3, 2012 at 11:55 AM

Obama can lose OH and FL and still win if he takes NV, NM, CO, IA, VA which it very much looks like he will.

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 11:58 AM

Had the suspensions been any harsher, I would have been in favor of the Saints going on strike and refusing to play the season. Let Goodell choke on that. We are under no obligation to put on a farce in the Superdome.

cane_loader on May 3, 2012 at 10:22 AM

I think we’ll be OK.

BTW the other Harbaugh (Ravens’ Coach) had to walk back his claim the other day that the Saints (and Patriots) Super Bowl victories dhould forever have an asterisk next to them. In his “apology” he said both teams deserved their SB trophies.

Del Dolemonte on May 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM

I’d be more interested in seeing Obama’s SATs and LSATs released to the world, having little doubt that all his transcripts might reveal is that he was the beneficiary of grade inflation throughout his academic career.

Drained Brain on May 3, 2012 at 11:51 AM

Honestly, I don’t put the value some people do on standardized tests. I – for example – can’t test well to save my life, but performed very well in GT and AP courses in high school as well as in college.

What I’d REALLY like to read is Obama’s thesis.

Washington Nearsider on May 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM

Obama also wins if he loses FL and OH and wins PA, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 12:03 PM

The DNC machine hasn’t even started the smears in earnest yet.

inthemiddle on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

What smears would those be?

Del Dolemonte on May 3, 2012 at 12:04 PM

Let’s see..would I pay for Mr Morrissey’s flawless analysis of these polls and current affairs? In a New York Minute.

Would I pay for the ability to exclude commenters whose last name ended in “-ed”? In a New York Second!

Excellent analysis, Mr. Morrisey!

The War Planner on May 3, 2012 at 12:06 PM

Where’s Allah’s, “Dude, I’m scared” post?

rhombus on May 3, 2012 at 10:12 AM

Depends if he’s feeling particularly beta that day or not.

scotash on May 3, 2012 at 12:09 PM

That’s what we heard consistently about Harry Reid, too, in 2010 — and he won reelection by a comfortable margin (I think it was something like 52-47).

Or maybe I’ve just been infected with AP’s Eeyore disease.

jwolf on May 3, 2012 at 10:20 AM

BHO does not have a myriad number of unionized casino workers under the thumb of thugs like Reid had, who get told when and where and for whom to vote.

Difficultas_Est_Imperium on May 3, 2012 at 12:09 PM

The DNC machine hasn’t even started the smears in earnest yet.

inthemiddle on May 3, 2012 at 10:26 AM

What smears would those be?

Del Dolemonte on May 3, 2012 at 12:04 PM

..and the money question would be, “why would these — smacking of even more desperation — gain any more traction than the pet-atop-the-car, war on women, Ann Romney eating bon bons while having her nails done, and would Romney have pulled the plug on the towel-head?”

The War Planner on May 3, 2012 at 12:10 PM

Oooh Ed, Ed, Ed, I’m afraid you’ve got some explaining to do.

May 2004 Polls on swing states

Florida: Bush 47, Kerry 46
OH: Kerry 49, Bush 42
Georgia, Bush 47 Kerry 44

Oh noooes you guys! Bush can’t reach 50% in critical swing states and OMG he can’t even reach 50% in Georgia. Bad for the incumbent, yup sirree bob. Bush is definitely going down…

libfreeordie on May 3, 2012 at 12:11 PM

Comment pages: 1 2